Expectations for Baylor football

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gobears20
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gobears20
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CorsicanaBear
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I'll go first.

I think we start 2021 3-0 (Texas State, Texas Southern, KU), lose at home to ISU then pick off 3 out of OSU, WVA, BYU, KSU and TT to finish 6-6. 3-9 is an underperform and I'm wondering about program direction. 8-4 I'm thinking the future is bright.
Illigitimus non carborundum
Jorkel
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We beat everyone but OU and Texas..win our bowl game. Is that 11-2?
Timbear
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I thought 8-10 wins until our Spring Game. 6-6 with a Bowl win would be great in Grimes first year.
zunooreo
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Out the gate 2 - 0, wins over TxSt and TSU, and fans start to get all giddy thinking "we're baaaaack".
Then, pull off only 2 conference wins....with a man-handling by BYU blended into conference play.
Concerns over Aranda start to grow........

4 - 8 Overall
2 - 7 BigXII
Ewalker80
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I'm much more optimistic than most seem to be about the level of the team, although some aspects of the schedule and league are more unfavorable than past years.

We have 3 warmup games (which we need for new o) and we should be favored against byu and tech and maybe k state. I could see winning between 6 and 9, but this could be the other side of the coin of our 2019 season (toughest teams at home) where we lose a lot of close games. I would put the mean at about 7.5 wins, but I think it's possible the offense could surpass our expectations and make this a special season if things fall the right way.

The other difference from 2019 is that several big 12 teams are going to be better this year, particularly Iowa st, tcu, and ok at, and maybe k state and wva. Our 2019 team could very easily win 7 or 8 games if playing in 2021. I'm very exited to see the team regardless and think they will make us proud.
Bear8084
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Timbear said:

I thought 8-10 wins until our Spring Game. 6-6 with a Bowl win would be great in Grimes first year.


Spring Games rarely show anything other than getting reps and polishing the different schemes of the offense and defense.

High of 8 wins, low of 6 wins give or take a Bowl victory.
Timbear
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8084, I'm hoping you're right.
ImABearToo
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QB and O line dictate and right now the QB position is so up in the air. If our defense is as good as we think it is then I like what I saw out of Bohanan in the spring game. Running backs may be good enough to take the pressure off the QB until they get on better footing by the third or fourth game. Schedule may help us as it did in '19. Just beat either whorn or sooner and it's a good season.
MrGolfguy
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Making a bowl game should be the minimum expectation and there are 6 winnable games on the schedule (2 non-conf plus some combo of BYU, KU, Tech, KSU, Tcu, WVU). There is also a slim possibility BU snags an upset win over someone they're not supposed to beat (if that team also has an off-night).
Chamberman
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8-4
lakersfan34
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5-7 with new offense, new QB and questionable O-line play.
Jorkel
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MrGolfguy said:

Making a bowl game should be the minimum expectation and there are 6 winnable games on the schedule (3 non-conf plus some combo of BYU, KU, Tech, KSU, Tcu). There is also a slim possibility BU snags an upset win over someone they're not supposed to beat (if that team also has an off-night).


Is BYU a non conference game
MrGolfguy
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yes, KU week 3 threw me off

meant to say 2 non-conf plus....
BUbearinARK
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zunooreo said:

Out the gate 2 - 0, wins over TxSt and TSU, and fans start to get all giddy thinking "we're baaaaack".
Then, pull off only 2 conference wins....with a man-handling by BYU blended into conference play.
Concerns over Aranda start to grow........

4 - 8 Overall
2 - 7 BigXII

PartyBear
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zunooreo said:

Out the gate 2 - 0, wins over TxSt and TSU, and fans start to get all giddy thinking "we're baaaaack".
Then, pull off only 2 conference wins....with a man-handling by BYU blended into conference play.
Concerns over Aranda start to grow........

4 - 8 Overall
2 - 7 BigXII



Did you read the game threads during the games? The big Rhule people here were wanting Aranda fired before the season was over. That said if next season is another losing one, there will be questions about football not just under Aranda but under the higher ups.
BearFan33
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Make it to a bowl game.
Aberzombie1892
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Let's be realistic.

Using FPI, OU, ISU, OSU, UT, TCU, Tech, and WVU will likely all field teams that vary from good to great to excellent, and Baylor likely won't be at that level in substantial part due to (1) the third different offense in three seasons and (2) the loss of Charlie Brewer. This isn't to say that Baylor's defense won't keep a few of those games close or even pull an upset, but it is to say that the Big 12's more recent emphasis on defense limits the benefits of a Big 12 team fielding a good defense if that team doesn't also have a good offense - unlike how it was a few seasons ago in the conference.

That leaves Kansas State, Kansas, Texas State, Texas Southern, and BYU. Kansas State is probably a toss up, Kansas should lose but may not be an easy out, and a Baylor loss to BYU would be difficult to accept given what they lost in the offseason (#2 draft pick overall at QB and their offensive coordinator, among other things). Texas State and Texas Southern should be wins.

All things considered, anywhere between 4-8 and 6-6 is on the table, and, since 5-7 is in the middle, that's where I would set the target. Hitting above 6-6 seems extremely unlikely unless something unexpected occurs that either (1) dramatically improves the Baylor offense or (2) destroys any of the better teams on Baylor's schedule (i.e. scandal).
Ewalker80
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Aberzombie1892 said:

Let's be realistic.

Using FPI, OU, ISU, OSU, UT, TCU, Tech, and WVU will likely all field teams that vary from good to great to excellent, and Baylor likely won't be at that level in substantial part due to (1) the third different offense in three seasons and (2) the loss of Charlie Brewer. This isn't to say that Baylor's defense won't keep a few of those games close or even pull an upset, but it is to say that the Big 12's more recent emphasis on defense limits the benefits of a Big 12 team fielding a good defense if that team doesn't also have a good offense - unlike how it was a few seasons ago in the conference.

That leaves Kansas State, Kansas, Texas State, Texas Southern, and BYU. Kansas State is probably a toss up, Kansas should lose but may not be an easy out, and a Baylor loss to BYU would be difficult to accept given what they lost in the offseason (#2 draft pick overall at QB and their offensive coordinator, among other things). Texas State and Texas Southern should be wins.

All things considered, anywhere between 4-8 and 6-6 is on the table, and, since 5-7 is in the middle, that's where I would set the target. Hitting above 6-6 seems extremely unlikely unless something unexpected occurs that either (1) dramatically improves the Baylor offense or (2) destroys any of the better teams on Baylor's schedule (i.e. scandal).


We should be favored against Texas Tech. Every other game except maybe ou and maybe maybe Iowa st should be "winnable" (say greater than 25 percent chance). We almost beat ou (on the road) and Iowa st last year without having a d1 offense. I think your outlook is way too pessimistic at this point. The combination of a bad fedora fit, a new offense, COVID, o line problems and Charlie problems was a train wreck last year but all signs point to improvement on offense and a top defense. That should make us competitive in almost every one of these games. Things are much better on the sunny side of life.
Robert Wilson
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May be a frustrating season. Our D will keep us in games, but our O will likely have a lot of trouble producing. Could look like last year unless Grimes can move the needle quickly.

I think we win 5 or 6. 6 and a bowl berth would be really nice. 6 plus a bowl win would be great.

If the offense really struggles, 4 is possible. But 8 is also possible if the O clicks and a couple other B12 teams have issues.
Aberzombie1892
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Ewalker80 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

Let's be realistic.

Using FPI, OU, ISU, OSU, UT, TCU, Tech, and WVU will likely all field teams that vary from good to great to excellent, and Baylor likely won't be at that level in substantial part due to (1) the third different offense in three seasons and (2) the loss of Charlie Brewer. This isn't to say that Baylor's defense won't keep a few of those games close or even pull an upset, but it is to say that the Big 12's more recent emphasis on defense limits the benefits of a Big 12 team fielding a good defense if that team doesn't also have a good offense - unlike how it was a few seasons ago in the conference.

That leaves Kansas State, Kansas, Texas State, Texas Southern, and BYU. Kansas State is probably a toss up, Kansas should lose but may not be an easy out, and a Baylor loss to BYU would be difficult to accept given what they lost in the offseason (#2 draft pick overall at QB and their offensive coordinator, among other things). Texas State and Texas Southern should be wins.

All things considered, anywhere between 4-8 and 6-6 is on the table, and, since 5-7 is in the middle, that's where I would set the target. Hitting above 6-6 seems extremely unlikely unless something unexpected occurs that either (1) dramatically improves the Baylor offense or (2) destroys any of the better teams on Baylor's schedule (i.e. scandal).


We should be favored against Texas Tech. Every other game except maybe ou and maybe maybe Iowa st should be "winnable" (say greater than 25 percent chance). We almost beat ou (on the road) and Iowa st last year without having a d1 offense. I think your outlook is way too pessimistic at this point. The combination of a bad fedora fit, a new offense, COVID, o line problems and Charlie problems was a train wreck last year but all signs point to improvement on offense and a top defense. That should make us competitive in almost every one of these games. Things are much better on the sunny side of life.
A couple of things.

1. Record - A final W/L total in the range of 4-8 to 6-6 (1) is both realistic given the perceived strength of the Big 12 going into the 2021 season and (2) represents at least a 2 win upgrade from the 2020 season, so it's difficult to consider that to be a pessimistic range.

2. Tech - Given that Tech returns 99% of its rush yards, 70% of its receiving yards, 80% of its OL starts, 74% of its tackles, 78% of its tackles for loss, and 76% of its sacks and then Tech added Oregon's 2020 starter at QB, it's difficult to see a reasonable scenario where Baylor would be favored over Tech. There is a reason that ESPN's FPI has Tech in its top 25, and, if Wells is half the coach he thinks he is, he's going to use that roster to anger some Big 12 fan bases this fall.
Jorkel
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Aberzombie1892 said:

Let's be realistic.

Using FPI, OU, ISU, OSU, UT, TCU, Tech, and WVU will likely all field teams that vary from good to great to excellent, and Baylor likely won't be at that level in substantial part due to (1) the third different offense in three seasons and (2) the loss of Charlie Brewer. This isn't to say that Baylor's defense won't keep a few of those games close or even pull an upset, but it is to say that the Big 12's more recent emphasis on defense limits the benefits of a Big 12 team fielding a good defense if that team doesn't also have a good offense - unlike how it was a few seasons ago in the conference.

That leaves Kansas State, Kansas, Texas State, Texas Southern, and BYU. Kansas State is probably a toss up, Kansas should lose but may not be an easy out, and a Baylor loss to BYU would be difficult to accept given what they lost in the offseason (#2 draft pick overall at QB and their offensive coordinator, among other things). Texas State and Texas Southern should be wins.

All things considered, anywhere between 4-8 and 6-6 is on the table, and, since 5-7 is in the middle, that's where I would set the target. Hitting above 6-6 seems extremely unlikely unless something unexpected occurs that either (1) dramatically improves the Baylor offense or (2) destroys any of the better teams on Baylor's schedule (i.e. scandal).


Loss of Charlie is actually an upgrade.
toughbear
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It's all about recruiting- overall, neither Rhule nor Aranda have recruited consistently top players - a few good ones no doubt but we don't have enough talent to win against most Big 12 teams especially against TCU, Texas and Oklahoma.
DanaDane
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Rhule did a lot, and I mean A LOT, of things right. But it is unfathomable how atrocious he and his staff were in evaluating and recruiting offensive linemen. We essentially have an offensive line that should be at FCS schools such as Sam Houston, where ironically one of his recruits is currently starting after transferring from here.
Ewalker80
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DanaDane said:

Rhule did a lot, and I mean A LOT, of things right. But it is unfathomable how atrocious he and his staff were in evaluating and recruiting offensive linemen. We essentially have an offensive line that should be at FCS schools such as Sam Houston, where ironically one of his recruits is currently starting after transferring from here.


That's an interesting take. The offensive line recruiting/development failure under rhule is beyond dispute. But I wonder how much of that is due to Deleone being out of the picture. I wonder how much was recruiting and how much a lack of development. And of course a big piece of it was having so few numbers at the beginning they just needed bodied. But they seemed to gamble on high upside guys tho at just didn't pan out by and large. We were really one year away from being able to fully analyze how good the rhule ol could be because his recruits were still mostly young, and then fedora/COVID etc made it much harder to analyze, but even before them the trajectory was not great. There is no doubt the high number of transfers out already has been a major problem. I don't know how much of that was also due to new schemes and bad fits. I would love to hear someone like wickline or bell diagnose why it got so bad last year. If I were interviewing bell I would ask him a lot of pointed questions about that because I think it is the biggest question surrounding the team overt the last to several years. Would also like to see an in depth retrospective on how there various factors contributed to getting the ol to its current status and whether there is hope for improvement with current roster.
Dia del DougO
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Six wins should be the expectation floor for having some confidence in the staff. That's the two early 2 non-con plus 4 wins in conference, with five of those games being at home, and another game being at Kansas.

I don't like to put a hard limit on projecting things like that, but it's reasonable. If the coaching staff has a better handle in 2021 and things are headed in the right direction, 6 should be there even with some bad luck, barring extraordinary injury problems or the like.

Seven wins should be a good indication of solid improvement. Eight should be considered freakin' outstanding for how far they would have come. Anything more is strong conference coach of the year type stuff.
"The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool."
zunooreo
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Dia del DougO said:

Six wins should be the expectation floor for having some confidence in the staff. That's the two early 2 non-con plus 4 wins in conference, with five of those games being at home, and another game being at Kansas.

I don't like to put a hard limit on projecting things like that, but it's reasonable. If the coaching staff has a better handle in 2021 and things are headed in the right direction, 6 should be there even with some bad luck, barring extraordinary injury problems or the like.

Seven wins should be a good indication of solid improvement. Eight should be considered freakin' outstanding for how far they would have come. Anything more is strong conference coach of the year type stuff.
No doubt - Six wins and a bowl game should be the absolute floor for ANY $4M a year head coach nowadays....starting right out the gate in Year 1. Then, it should scale to 9 wins by their 4th year and never go backwards.

Unfortunately, that's not necessarily the expectation bar that's set by Baylor's AD or Administration. If you are a person of faith, and speak to that point often, you keep getting to collect paychecks and Shine the Light.

Sic'em
Timbear
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Thank you , Zun for pulling back the curtain on the new Baylor creed that all coaches must adhere to. You are exactly right. It's no longer enough to be a Believer. You must say certain things, and act in certain ways.If you do, your employment is assured with or without successful seasons.
BUbearinARK
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Why are y'all so caught up in what at real P5 college pays? We are here to compete.
Baylor Pride
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6-6
Baylor Alum - Class of '99
Baylor BUilt - Preparing Champions for Life
Ewalker80
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Timbear said:

Thank you , Zun for pulling back the curtain on the new Baylor creed that all coaches must adhere to. You are exactly right. It's no longer enough to be a Believer. You must say certain things, and act in certain ways.If you do, your employment is assured with or without successful seasons.


I'm genuinely curious what y'all are referring to. As far as I know Baylor coaches are winning in virtually every sport. Who are you suggesting was kept long longer than deserved? Really asking. Surely you don't mean that aranda should have been fired after one Covid year or rhule after his first year?
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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On the scale of 1-10, we are a 3. Pre-Briles Baylor Football. It is what it is. But the really good news is our new women's basketball coach loves and embraces her some Black Lives Matter. Aranda is screwed!

"Fear does not prevent death. It prevents life."
BUbearinARK
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

On the scale of 1-10, we are a 3. Pre-Briles Baylor Football. It is what it is. But the really good news is our new women's basketball coach loves and embraces her some Black Lives Matter. Aranda is screwed!


Wanna make a bet on Aranda and Collen?
Proud 1992 Alum
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Zun & Timbear should ride off into the sunset together with all their negativity and bogus claims.
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