Big12Bear said:
Dia del DougO said:
i believe that among the most mentioned candidates, Houston has the highest athletic budget, is in the largest market and a fast growing one, and has been successful at the top level before. They seem like a no-brainer to add.
Most of the rest are all pretty close in most areas, some make a lot more geographic and cultural sense.
When Houston was at their most successful in the past, probation accompanied it. Worse, so did sparse crowds. They averaged around 20,000 when winning in the late 80s/early 90s and still only average 25k now, after looking up 2019, pre-Covid figures.
The big market only matters if people in that market tune in and care about the product.
Their on-field product would only be ranked ahead of Kansas, as evidenced by the fact they are a home underdog to the media-picked 9th place Texas Tech squad.
So basically, they're not good in football (nowhere near Top 25) and don't draw crowds.
Far from a no-brainer.
Actually, Houston fares just fine in average attendance compared to most of the favorites. Only BYU stands above the rest, for obvious reasons, but they also pose some unique obstacles that need to be assessed.
https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07/college-football-attendance-rankings-no-1-130-2019-cfn-five-year-program-analysisAttendance is based on the average per game over the last five seasons, followed up by % capacity, followed by last year's ranking.
32 BYU 56597.00 89.17% 28
61 Memphis 36295.80 62.24% 66
63 UCF 34814.60 78.76% 62
66 USF 32945.80 50.03% 63
68 Houston 32733.00 81.83% 74
71 Cincinnati 31694.80 79.24% 72
91 SMU 21122.00 66.01% 93
48 TCU 44720.40 99.38% 50
47 Baylor 44774.80 99.19% 51
Now if one projects the jump in attendance with Big 12 competition with bigger regional rivalries that are far more likely to travel and the logical assumption would be a significant bump.
Furthermore, Houston has finished first or tied for first in their conference six times between 2006 and 2018. Only once did they finish worse than third, and only one losing season until 2019. They finished in the top 20 twice during that span. And they reside in an area of Texas which is currently unoccupied in the Big 12.
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