Given the Georgia State/Yale back-to-backers we obviously can't take anything for granted, but our first two games are a study in contrasts.
KenPom reeeeally does not like UCSB. One of the worst in the country (302nd) in adjusted tempo, bad defensive efficiency even by our standards (163rd), and amazingly they have played zero Quad 1 teams. Zero. And they've only played four Quad 2 teams. They have not been tested.
What always worries me is fast, long-armed perimeter length. UCSB does not have that. They run a (good) 3-guard set with a rangy wing who can fill from deep (Miles Norris) and a solid if somewhat cumbersome 6-9 post (Andre Kelly). Their entire rotation is an 8-man, and they run five guards through it. They have some talented slasher guards, but it's a pretty decent matchup for us. Of course our shooting has to show up, but at least on paper if we shoot our averages and play any perimeter defense at all, we will advance.
If they win, Creighton is probably the worst matchup we could've asked for from a 3/6 game. They're a 6-seed in name only - in quality they're probably more of a 3 of a 4. They have a lot of quick length and they're extremely fast on switches on the perimeter. If you watch their tape, pick-and-pop teams rarely get clean looks. Kalkbrenner is a nightmare matchup for Flo, who will probably flirt with foul trouble defensively and be atomized on the boards. Scheierman and Kaluma are board-crashers who can stick with ball-handlers deep. They'll probably stick Scheierman on whoever has the hot hand, and at 6-6 he'll stick with you and contest everything. The fact that his name is Baylor is an ironic twist.
They've also played a lot of heavy hitters and either beat them or were within a possession or two at the buzzer. They could've held their own in the Big 12 this year. Assuming we do what we're supposed to against UCSB, I have never been a bigger NC State fan in my life. That's a much, much better matchup for us, obviously. NC State would be a track meet backcourt battle, but I feel OK about that.
Beyond that, who knows. But I honestly don't see us getting past Creighton so long as they win game one. I think they're a dark horse pick to see Alabama in the Elite 8, and then roll the dice.
KenPom reeeeally does not like UCSB. One of the worst in the country (302nd) in adjusted tempo, bad defensive efficiency even by our standards (163rd), and amazingly they have played zero Quad 1 teams. Zero. And they've only played four Quad 2 teams. They have not been tested.
What always worries me is fast, long-armed perimeter length. UCSB does not have that. They run a (good) 3-guard set with a rangy wing who can fill from deep (Miles Norris) and a solid if somewhat cumbersome 6-9 post (Andre Kelly). Their entire rotation is an 8-man, and they run five guards through it. They have some talented slasher guards, but it's a pretty decent matchup for us. Of course our shooting has to show up, but at least on paper if we shoot our averages and play any perimeter defense at all, we will advance.
If they win, Creighton is probably the worst matchup we could've asked for from a 3/6 game. They're a 6-seed in name only - in quality they're probably more of a 3 of a 4. They have a lot of quick length and they're extremely fast on switches on the perimeter. If you watch their tape, pick-and-pop teams rarely get clean looks. Kalkbrenner is a nightmare matchup for Flo, who will probably flirt with foul trouble defensively and be atomized on the boards. Scheierman and Kaluma are board-crashers who can stick with ball-handlers deep. They'll probably stick Scheierman on whoever has the hot hand, and at 6-6 he'll stick with you and contest everything. The fact that his name is Baylor is an ironic twist.
They've also played a lot of heavy hitters and either beat them or were within a possession or two at the buzzer. They could've held their own in the Big 12 this year. Assuming we do what we're supposed to against UCSB, I have never been a bigger NC State fan in my life. That's a much, much better matchup for us, obviously. NC State would be a track meet backcourt battle, but I feel OK about that.
Beyond that, who knows. But I honestly don't see us getting past Creighton so long as they win game one. I think they're a dark horse pick to see Alabama in the Elite 8, and then roll the dice.
