What is a realistic/acceptable floor for conference play for the team this year?

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boognish_bear
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2:05p, 1/18/24
Conference play is just getting underway and early on it's looking like just about every night is going to be a toss up. I think right now we have a good, but not great team. We haven't looked dominating in any of our conference wins yet like KU did for example Tuesday night in beating OkSt on the road by 24 or UH beating Tech by 23 last night.

We are 3-1 so far in conference play with 14 games to go. If we were to go .500 through the rest of conference play that would put us at 10-8 in conference play and 21-10 with our overall record. Would that be an acceptable floor?

If we were to go 8-6 the rest of the way we would finish conference play 11-7 and overall would be at 22-9. I think for me given our expectations and what we have been seeing in the first 4 conference games from our team and the other B12 teams going 8-6 the rest of the way and finishing conference play at 11-7 would be an "acceptable floor" for this team.

Beyond that I don't even know what to expect in the NCAA tourney this year. It feels so wide open for so many teams. I could see us losing our second game and it not be too shocking....or making a run to the Elite 8 and that not be a surprising result either. There are only a small handful of teams that are looking dominant right now.
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wongobear
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In reply to boognish_bear • 3:59p, 1/18/24
boognish_bear said:
Conference play is just getting underway and early on it's looking like just about every night is going to be a toss up. I think right now we have a good, but not great team. We haven't looked dominating in any of our conference wins yet like KU did for example Tuesday night in beating OkSt on the road by 24 or UH beating Tech by 23 last night.

We are 3-1 so far in conference play with 14 games to go. If we were to go .500 through the rest of conference play that would put us at 10-8 in conference play and 21-10 with our overall record. Would that be an acceptable floor?

If we were to go 8-6 the rest of the way we would finish conference play 11-7 and overall would be at 22-9. I think for me given our expectations and what we have been seeing in the first 4 conference games from our team and the other B12 teams going 8-6 the rest of the way and finishing conference play at 11-7 would be an "acceptable floor" for this team.

Beyond that I don't even know what to expect in the NCAA tourney this year. It feels so wide open for so many teams. I could see us losing our second game and it not be too shocking....or making a run to the Elite 8 and that not be a surprising result either. There are only a small handful of teams that are looking dominant right now.
8-6 the rest of the way sounds about right for the floor. I think that means we win 1 road game the rest of the way, and we'll probably be better than that (but will probably drop at least one at home).
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Cove Dawg
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4:40p, 1/18/24
With this roster and the strength of the league I see about a .500 conference record as being appropriate.
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boognish_bear
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7:58p, 1/18/24
Self sums up conference play pretty well in the video

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MrGolfguy
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9:58p, 1/18/24
toupee looks good this year
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NumberCruncher
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12:39a, 1/19/24
He is not wrong
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MashedPotatoes
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In reply to boognish_bear • 8:15a, 1/19/24
boognish_bear said:
Self sums up conference play pretty well in the video

Not interested. Please delete.
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boognish_bear
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11:48p, 1/27/24
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PartyBear
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8:47a, 1/28/24
I'm starting to think Bama and Texas and Ohio St and the like should look at the XII in men's hoops and get a look at what football would be like for them if they started a special league made up of the SEC and B10 schools minus some of the weaker programs who are in those conferences now.

None of them will kill anyone anymore and their seasons would look more mediocre than what they are used to historically.
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IvanBear
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In reply to PartyBear • 9:47a, 1/28/24
No because we're losing to the equivalent of Mississippi state in that analogy
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historian
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9:56p, 1/28/24
There is much more parity in basketball in general than football. The cfp are essentially the ESPN Blue Blood Invitationals. March Madness is nothing like that and far more exciting & entertaining.

The Big 12 has more parity than any other conference which is why it's the strongest & best. That's why we had 8 teams ranked last week & still have 7. I wouldn't be surprised if it remained 7 tomorrow. A few weeks ago we had 8 in the NET top 50. Now it's 10. No other conference has more than 6. Big 12 dominance is huge. But we will cannibalize each other so much we might not get so many teams in the tournament or they might be so exhausted as to not advance very far.

It's gonna be a very bumpy ride!!
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Crawfoso1973
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In reply to historian • 6:41a, 1/29/24
historian said:
There is much more parity in basketball in general than football. The cfp are essentially the ESPN Blue Blood Invitationals. March Madness is nothing like that and far more exciting & entertaining.

The Big 12 has more parity than any other conference which is why it's the strongest & best. That's why we had 8 teams ranked last week & still have 7. I wouldn't be surprised if it remained 7 tomorrow. A few weeks ago we had 8 in the NET top 50. Now it's 10. No other conference has more than 6. Big 12 dominance is huge. But we will cannibalize each other so much we might not get so many teams in the tournament or they might be so exhausted as to not advance very far.

It's gonna be a very bumpy ride!!
This. People are frustrated because they continue comparing our current team to our Natty team. Under the current rules no one could bring in players the caliber of Davion, Teague, and Flagler and redshirt them. Never again will a player like Mark Vital be able to stick in the program for 5 or 6 years. The transfer portal changed everything, but some posters believe our team should be constructed as if we are still living in 2019. FWIW I feel the NIL / transfer portal element has damaged the product we see on the floor. As a fan I don't enjoy seeing a 75% roster turnvover each season. I loved seeing player development over a 4 or 5 year period. But now the transfer rules are creating a disjointed product and are ruining the game.
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bear2be2
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In reply to Crawfoso1973 • 8:23a, 1/29/24
Crawfoso1973 said:
historian said:
There is much more parity in basketball in general than football. The cfp are essentially the ESPN Blue Blood Invitationals. March Madness is nothing like that and far more exciting & entertaining.

The Big 12 has more parity than any other conference which is why it's the strongest & best. That's why we had 8 teams ranked last week & still have 7. I wouldn't be surprised if it remained 7 tomorrow. A few weeks ago we had 8 in the NET top 50. Now it's 10. No other conference has more than 6. Big 12 dominance is huge. But we will cannibalize each other so much we might not get so many teams in the tournament or they might be so exhausted as to not advance very far.

It's gonna be a very bumpy ride!!
This. People are frustrated because they continue comparing our current team to our Natty team. Under the current rules no one could bring in players the caliber of Davion, Teague, and Flagler and redshirt them. Never again will a player like Mark Vital be able to stick in the program for 5 or 6 years. The transfer portal changed everything, but some posters believe our team should be constructed as if we are still living in 2019. FWIW I feel the NIL / transfer portal element has damaged the product we see on the floor. As a fan I don't enjoy seeing a 75% roster turnvover each season. I loved seeing player development over a 4 or 5 year period. But now the transfer rules are creating a disjointed product and are ruining the game.
People aren't frustrated because this isn't a national title contender. They're frustrated because we're consistently losing to Big 12 also-rans with a remaining schedule full of top-tier teams.

Fan frustration right now is neither irrational nor a product of unrealistic expectations. This team is underachieving any fair expectations fans or pundits had for it. The bottom line is outside of stretches here and there, we haven't played good basketball for more than a month.
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IowaBear
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In reply to bear2be2 • 8:31a, 1/29/24
Careful!! You're making too much sense.
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Crawfoso1973
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In reply to bear2be2 • 8:45a, 1/29/24
bear2be2 said:
Crawfoso1973 said:
historian said:
There is much more parity in basketball in general than football. The cfp are essentially the ESPN Blue Blood Invitationals. March Madness is nothing like that and far more exciting & entertaining.

The Big 12 has more parity than any other conference which is why it's the strongest & best. That's why we had 8 teams ranked last week & still have 7. I wouldn't be surprised if it remained 7 tomorrow. A few weeks ago we had 8 in the NET top 50. Now it's 10. No other conference has more than 6. Big 12 dominance is huge. But we will cannibalize each other so much we might not get so many teams in the tournament or they might be so exhausted as to not advance very far.

It's gonna be a very bumpy ride!!
This. People are frustrated because they continue comparing our current team to our Natty team. Under the current rules no one could bring in players the caliber of Davion, Teague, and Flagler and redshirt them. Never again will a player like Mark Vital be able to stick in the program for 5 or 6 years. The transfer portal changed everything, but some posters believe our team should be constructed as if we are still living in 2019. FWIW I feel the NIL / transfer portal element has damaged the product we see on the floor. As a fan I don't enjoy seeing a 75% roster turnvover each season. I loved seeing player development over a 4 or 5 year period. But now the transfer rules are creating a disjointed product and are ruining the game.
People aren't frustrated because this isn't a national title contender. They're frustrated because we're consistently losing to Big 12 also-rans with a remaining schedule full of top-tier teams.

Fan frustration right now is neither irrational nor a product of unrealistic expectations. This team is underachieving any fair expectations fans or pundits had for it. The bottom line is outside of stretches here and there, we haven't played good basketball for more than a month.
The big 12 is loaded. There are really no also-rans in our conference.
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historian
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In reply to Crawfoso1973 • 9:16a, 1/29/24
Agreed. Someone needs to find a way around this. Maybe they can use NIL and have recruits sign a contract committing for a certain number of years. They could still make it fm1 year for the "one & dones" but most would benefit from being in a program for 2-3 years. I don't know how this could be implemented in a practical sense without new rules. There should not be so much turnover!
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historian
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In reply to bear2be2 • 9:37a, 1/29/24
Yes that makes a lot of sense but isn't it also true that NIL and the transfer portal or underlying causes or at least contributing factors?
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boognish_bear
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11:03a, 1/29/24
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boognish_bear
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10:31p, 3/4/24
Welp....we've "clinched" being at least one better than the "floor"...let's make it 2
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