Last Shot Strategy

1,719 Views | 18 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by Limited IQ Redneck in PU
JP1037
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Drives me crazy. We wait until 6 seconds to engage and then force up a bad shot. We are more worried to leave 1 second than score. Start at 10 and get a decent shot. It happens a lot. Our last shot offense has to be under 20%.

EvilTroyAndAbed
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Ok
Guitarbiscuit
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JP1037 said:

Drives me crazy. We wait until 6 seconds to engage and then force up a bad shot. We are more worried to leave 1 second than score. Start at 10 and get a decent shot. It happens a lot. Our last shot offense has to be under 20%.



Hell no. It's gotta be at least 23 percent. Way off.
Wade
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In fairness to that strategy, teams shoot an absurd rate on half court shots to beat the buzzer. Our disastrous half court buzzer beating defense has been consistently bad for many years. It's a drew stable I have decided to just live with. But at least he plans around it.
Fre3dombear
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JP1037 said:

Drives me crazy. We wait until 6 seconds to engage and then force up a bad shot. We are more worried to leave 1 second than score. Start at 10 and get a decent shot. It happens a lot. Our last shot offense has to be under 20%.




The strategy is with 4 seconds or more and us having the ball, the other team still scores inexplicably 79% of the time
bear2be2
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JP1037 said:

Drives me crazy. We wait until 6 seconds to engage and then force up a bad shot. We are more worried to leave 1 second than score. Start at 10 and get a decent shot. It happens a lot. Our last shot offense has to be under 20%.


We got a great look to end the first half tonight off the inbounds. Just didn't make it.

And even preceding that, Dennis had an open shooter. He just couldn't quite get the pass to him. It was just bad luck that the ball was deflected way up in the air and cost us most of the time remaining on the clock.
whitetrash
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bear2be2 said:

JP1037 said:

Drives me crazy. We wait until 6 seconds to engage and then force up a bad shot. We are more worried to leave 1 second than score. Start at 10 and get a decent shot. It happens a lot. Our last shot offense has to be under 20%.


We got a great look to end the first half tonight off the inbounds. Just didn't make it.

And even preceding that, Dennis had an open shooter. He just couldn't quite get the pass to him. It was just bad luck that the ball was deflected way up in the air and cost us most of the time remaining on the clock.
Dennis fired the pass with between 3.5 and 4 seconds left; it was deflected so high that it didn't come down until 0.7 left.
bear2be2
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whitetrash said:

bear2be2 said:

JP1037 said:

Drives me crazy. We wait until 6 seconds to engage and then force up a bad shot. We are more worried to leave 1 second than score. Start at 10 and get a decent shot. It happens a lot. Our last shot offense has to be under 20%.


We got a great look to end the first half tonight off the inbounds. Just didn't make it.

And even preceding that, Dennis had an open shooter. He just couldn't quite get the pass to him. It was just bad luck that the ball was deflected way up in the air and cost us most of the time remaining on the clock.
Dennis fired the pass with between 3.5 and 4 seconds left; it was deflected so high that it didn't come down until 0.7 left.
You don't want to get a last shot off before then, so I thought he initiated the offense at a good time. He just didn't get the pass off cleanly. It happens.
Griz
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Wade said:

I have decided to just live with.
If you had decided not to live with it, what were your options?
historian
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Fre3dombear said:

JP1037 said:

Drives me crazy. We wait until 6 seconds to engage and then force up a bad shot. We are more worried to leave 1 second than score. Start at 10 and get a decent shot. It happens a lot. Our last shot offense has to be under 20%.




The strategy is with 4 seconds or more and us having the ball, the other team still scores inexplicably 79% of the time

What is the source of that stat? Did you pull it out of thin air or did someone actually do the work to research & calculate it?
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
historian
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Griz said:

Wade said:

I have decided to just live with.
If you had decided not to live with it, what were your options?

Suicide?
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
JP1037
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historian said:

Fre3dombear said:

JP1037 said:

Drives me crazy. We wait until 6 seconds to engage and then force up a bad shot. We are more worried to leave 1 second than score. Start at 10 and get a decent shot. It happens a lot. Our last shot offense has to be under 20%.




The strategy is with 4 seconds or more and us having the ball, the other team still scores inexplicably 79% of the time

What is the source of that stat? Did you pull it out of thin air or did someone actually do the work to research & calculate it?
Neither researched or out of thin air. I watch every game and rewatch home games (so I can enjoy the camera angle) and this issue has stood out as I think we engage 3 or 4 seconds too late consistently. Never claimed I got it from hard data but it drives my MBB group crazy too so I know I am not alone.

IMO...If we engage at 10 seconds or 9 seconds (like most teams) rather than 6 seconds and we have a chance to get a better shot.

I understand its ultimately a small issue but it was on display last night again.

historian
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So, it's a guess based upon observation? OK
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
Limited IQ Redneck in PU
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He pulled it out of his rear end
I have found theres only two ways to go:
Living fast or dying slow.
I dont want to live forever.
But I will live while I'm here.
Fre3dombear
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historian said:

Fre3dombear said:

JP1037 said:

Drives me crazy. We wait until 6 seconds to engage and then force up a bad shot. We are more worried to leave 1 second than score. Start at 10 and get a decent shot. It happens a lot. Our last shot offense has to be under 20%.




The strategy is with 4 seconds or more and us having the ball, the other team still scores inexplicably 79% of the time

What is the source of that stat? Did you pull it out of thin air or did someone actually do the work to research & calculate it?


42% of statistics are made up on the spot
historian
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LOL
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
Quinton
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You have a valid view. I think the number Drew cites is okay (6 seconds ) but I think 7-7.5 is best to start heading downhill. In theory shot goes up at + or - 3.5 seconds leaving just enough time for a putback/quick shot off rebound.

Won't really argue with 6 seconds but the issue is we've waited until 5 or less many times which is a lot different than starting to accelerate at 6.

Sounds inconsequential but makes a huge difference. So I think execution of the 6 concept hasn't been great.
JP1037
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Quinton said:

You have a valid view. I think the number Drew cites is okay (6 seconds ) but I think 7-7.5 is best to start heading downhill. In theory shot goes up at + or - 3.5 seconds leaving just enough time for a putback/quick shot off rebound.

Won't really argue with 6 seconds but the issue is we've waited until 5 or less many times which is a lot different than starting to accelerate at 6.

Sounds inconsequential but makes a huge difference. So I think execution of the 6 concept hasn't been great.


Exactly. Apparently this nuance is too advanced and over the head of 43% of this message board.
Limited IQ Redneck in PU
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Griz said:

Wade said:

I have decided to just live with.
If you had decided not to live with it, what were your options?


I will resist saying the world would have been better off
I have found theres only two ways to go:
Living fast or dying slow.
I dont want to live forever.
But I will live while I'm here.
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