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If the Tigers are too frisky for your risk appetite, you might want to try the Wildcats instead. Arizona's statistical chances of cutting down the nets are 6.8%, higher than the 4.6% of bracketologists picking Arizona to win the national title. It helps that the Wildcats are a No. 2 seed playing in the same region as the weakest No. 1 seed (North Carolina) and the second-weakest No. 3 seed (Baylor). It also helps that they begin the tournament against a team that has already fired its coach.

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I think the Big 12 kind of broke the NET ratings this year, so I'm not sure what to make of the comparisons to other conferences. For instance, we were 10-9 in Quad 1 games. Arizona was 8-3 and in between could just take games completely off at times because the competition balance was so uneven. They also played almost twice as many Quad 2/3/4 games, which obviously jacked up their overall record rating.

When you're getting pummeled twice a week, every week for 3 months, I just don't know how you can hold apples to apples comparisons when Arizona could basically walk to wins against mediocre/bad competition in 1/3 of its games.

We'll have a better idea next year. I'll be really curious to see what the new lay of the land looks like once Arizona joins the ranks.

Which is partly why I'm valuing Tech and BYU to make more of a splash in the tourney than other comps.