Bracketology

3,307 Views | 47 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by boognish_bear
boognish_bear
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Stefano DiMera
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Rodney Terry may be coaching for his job .

Getting murdered at home by Georgia in a must win game.
Big12Fan2024
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Vandy upsets #14 Mizzou so the Dores solidified their spot in front of us.
IowaBear
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Vandy was in front of BU regardless. They have a good resume.
Big12Fan2024
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IowaBear said:

Vandy was in front of BU regardless. They have a good resume.
No, not really. At least by the way the committee evaluates. We are ahead of them in almost every metric the committee uses: Higher KenPom, Higher NET, More Quad 1 wins, Higher Torvik, Better BPI, Better SOS.
They have more wins against ranked opponents, but all of those were in SEC competition. Out of conference consisted of weak opponents with biggest win being TCU, who of course beat us. In the eyes of the committee we are both right there around each other.

Now, if we were scheduled to play Vandy and I was gambling, the eye test right now would definitely tell me to take Vandy.
IowaBear
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Vandy absolutely should be seeded higher when all is said in done. They may not have any good non con wins but we only have 1… and their conference wins trump BUs handily. Would be an absolute travesty if that team was seeded lower than BU. The St Johns win is really the only win of any significance. KU I suppose but that win is less impressive by the day
Big12Fan2024
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Vandy very well could end up higher. The metrics are part of the evaluation, then the judgmental piece comes in. There's no way for the committee to argue the metrics part. It's statistically validated data. We are ahead of Vandy, whether or not you or I or anyone else visually sees something different. But, then again, that's why there's a judgmental piece of the discussion and it also ultimately comes into play. And that is where the items you pointed out will likely come into play.

The process is quite fascinating. They have several very long videos on this (I know Seth Davis posted his experience) where they walk through exactly how the committee performs the selections and then the seeding.
Stefano DiMera
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I heard many years ago that one of the main criteria for bubble teams and the mid majors to get in is have you proven you can win a game or games in the tournament.

Playing in a power conference obviously gives you an advantage in opportunities.
Big12Fan2024
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The interesting point of reference for this year to keep an eye on is WAB. It was announced before the season it would be one of the primary components in the selection of at large teams. It's the stat that we should be most concerned with right now.

For anyone reading who doesn't know what WAB is, it is simply Wins Above Bubble which estimates how a bubble team of the past X number of years would have faired against similar schedule of the other team being evaluated. While we are very good in almost all other metrics, this is one that we are unfortunately not doing as well as we need to be. We are currently #42.
boognish_bear
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Harrison Bergeron
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Stefano DiMera said:

Rodney Terry may be coaching for his job .

Getting murdered at home by Georgia in a must win game.
Terry pulled a fast one on the Horns a couple of years ago. He should have been fired last year.

I'm hoping we sneak in on our "body of work."
Stefano DiMera
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Reminder

One of our wins 'doesnt count' since it was over Arlington Baptist.

So we're 16-12 in eyes of committee.
boognish_bear
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