2025-26 Postmortem & Looking Ahead

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bear2be2
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

bear2be2 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

bear2be2 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

bear2be2 said:

Big12Fan2024 said:

Seems like there are too many comments and projections in this thread based solely on offense. Much bigger concern for the past 5 years has been and should continue to be defense. If that doesn't improve, we're back in 13th or worse next year and taking double digit beatings routinely in the conference (over half our losses in the Big 12) again. And I won't single them out but the projected roster contains 3 guys with defensive metrics (you can go through Torvik, KenPom, EvanMiya or any service and they are essentially the same) and the ratings are in the Weak rating category, 2 guys with Average metrics, 1 guy with slightly Above Average metrics and 4 guys who have never played so there's no legit rating for them.

Hopefully those 4 will show up with at least average defensive skills for Big 12 level players when we get to early November. Or, hopefully we'll pick up at least one defensive specialist to go along with the shooting guard you guys are wanting and we get to 12 roster spots.

After 5 consecutive years, I would hope Drew and staff don't go into the season with only 10 scholarship players when our history now shows we lose at least 2 guys each year either before or during the season and the physical Big 12 play results in game-to-game injuries that eliminate 1-2 more, and that statistic is common with other teams not only in our conference but across all the High Major conferences. If we have another season where we only have 6 or 7 available players because we only carried 10 scholarship players who can actually be called upon when needed, then Drew and staff should be charged with coaching malfeasance.

Obi had Weak defensive metrics and his detailed offensive metrics showed significant fall off when facing Above average or better defensive opponents. Drew is a big proponent of metrics. Obi was never coming back.



I've largely given up on our ability to field a good defensive team, which means we had better be able to score our way to wins -- something we did with moderate success in 2023 and 2024.

And this team is currently short on scoring if it hopes to get back to that level.

I think our defense will improve some simply by adding a couple of true rim protectors to the mix in Bodo Bodo and Chatman. But we'll likely hand out open 3s like candy ... because that's what we do.

So we need to add offense -- and especially shooting -- from that two spot so we can we keep up with the Big 12 teams capable of taking advantage of that.

Currently, Decker and Celiscar are the only potential quality perimeter shooters on this roster -- and both will be experiencing significant jumps in competition level/opposing defense next season.

We need more offense if we hope to be competitive next year.

Which "offense focused" teams have finished in the top four of the B12 over the past five years?

Hard enough to do when B12 was in two time zones. With current travel burden, legs fresh enough to jump shoot a team to road victories in February will be in very short supply.

Why are we talking about finishing in the top four of the Big 12 right now? We haven't done that in almost half a decade and just got done finishing 13th in a 16-team league.

With what we're returning and have added so far, the goal for next season should be a return to our 2023 and 2024 level, which will be a big enough challenge at this rate.

Our program is a shell of what it was at the beginning of this decade. It's going to take time, a **** ton of effort and more luck than we probably deserve to get back to a place where we're competing for conference titles again.

And yet you are arguing for basically giving up on D and "score our way to wins".
Neither Baylor nor any other team is going to shoot their way to winning in the B12 without solid D.
What part of Winning in the B12 Requires D is difficult?

If you've ever read my posts here, you'd know that I'd never argue for giving up on defense. I've probably been more frustrated by our **** defense the last four years than anyone who posts here regularly.

But looking at the roster we have currently and what we likely have to spend to fill out the remaining two or three spots, I see little reason to believe that any move we make between now and the beginning of the season will turn this into an elite defensive team. And if we don't add more offense, we'll be more likely to finish in the bottom four of the Big 12 again than we will be to climb into the top four.

I would love for us to focus more on defense and fix things on that end of the floor. But that ship has likely already sailed. Like I said, I think we can (and will) be better because our interior guys our better. But it would be easier at this stage to try to close the gap on the offensive end than it would be on defense, where Drew's teams have consistently struggled outside of a three-year period that's likely not even repeatable in the current CBB landscape.

I think this team, as currently constructed, will be a bubble team next year. The goal at this stage should be returning to the tournament. Our program has fallen that far. It's going to take work and time to get it back to the level that fans here are expecting. Adding some defense-first wing from Radford or Cal Poly isn't going to make this team a Big 12 title contender.


The two things you posted are in no way, shape or form contradictory.

Wishing we were better defensively and not believing enough in Scott Drew's abilities as a defensive coach to sacrifice offense for defense are perfectly compatible notions.

Like I said, I would love for us to be good defensively again. But from a team- and roster-building perspective, I have way more faith in Scott Drew's ability to build a winning offense than a winning defense and thus believe it would be foolish to invest what little resources we have left in defense-first players given the roster we're currently set to enter the season with.

I have no delusions that next year's team will be a Big 12 title contender/second weekend tournament threat. I just want us to get back to the tournament. And that will require more offense/shooting than we currently have committed to play for us next season.

Baby steps. We can worry about building an elite defense again when we can stop worrying about finishing in the bottom half of our league and out of the tournament picture.
Adriacus Peratuun
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Fortunately people can read the posts for themselves, determine if contradictions exist, and decide on the correctness of any arguments.
bear2be2
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

Fortunately people can read the posts for themselves, determine if contradictions exist, and decide on the correctness of any arguments.

I think the point I'm making is pretty easy for most to understand, particularly considering the consensus both here and elsewhere is that we still need a legit scoring guard to be competitive next year.

Not knowing what our remaining NIL situation is, I'd love to round out this class with a 13-15 ppg shooting guard and a quality perimeter defender. But I'm prioritizing the two in that order.

We've had plenty of tournament teams that have been mediocre or worse defensively. When we've missed the tournament under Drew, it's almost always been because our offense under performed expectations.
Mitch Henessey
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

Fortunately people can read the posts for themselves, determine if contradictions exist, and decide on the correctness of any arguments.
I enjoy your analysis and insight, but you're very combative. Unnecessarily so. I don't know if it's your personality, or if you just enjoy ****-stirring, but it's pretty grating to read after a while.
joenatty
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Happy to secure the Mingo bros

Staff needs to go get one more player that can see minutes without risking being the worst player on the court and we can call it an offseason
BUBradley
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BUBradley
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bear_kessner
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LET WGOOOOO BABBY
boognish_bear
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IowaBear
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We call those Hogs in Iowa! Nice catch for CSD! That fish is north of 5 pounds which isn't easy in the bass world
Quinton
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Good pickup, much more so with an extra year of maturity (physically/skill). Assuming he's redshirting.

Looks like Drew is going all in to retain everyone for two years. If he can pull it off and the Mingo brothers develop a shot, 27/28 would be a contender.
Big12Bear
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bear2be2
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Quinton said:

Good pickup, much more so with an extra year of maturity (physically/skill). Assuming he's redshirting.

Looks like Drew is going all in to retain everyone for two years. If he can pull it off and the Mingo brothers develop a shot, 27/28 would be a contender.

Is the younger Mingo for sure going to have to redshirt? I've heard he suffered an ankle injury but wasn't sure of the severity of it.

Either way, this is a really nice pickup. But if he can't play, we still need to finish the playing roster for 2026-27 with one more shooter/scorer. If he can play, I'd imagine we're pretty much done outside of a developmental player or two.
bear2be2
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Big12Bear said:



This guy looks more like a JJ White level player than what we really need to finish out our backcourt. But we may have shot our financial wad with the younger Mingo brother.
joenatty
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Quinton said:

Good pickup, much more so with an extra year of maturity (physically/skill). Assuming he's redshirting.

Looks like Drew is going all in to retain everyone for two years. If he can pull it off and the Mingo brothers develop a shot, 27/28 would be a contender.

If Drew manages to retain everyone going into next year we'll be looking at a season with one seed expectations
bear2be2
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joenatty said:

Quinton said:

Good pickup, much more so with an extra year of maturity (physically/skill). Assuming he's redshirting.

Looks like Drew is going all in to retain everyone for two years. If he can pull it off and the Mingo brothers develop a shot, 27/28 would be a contender.

If Drew manages to retain everyone going into next year we'll be looking at a season with one seed expectations

Things could definitely get fun in Waco again.
boognish_bear
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Not the best move IMO… But I still hope it works out for him

boognish_bear
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Dear basketball gods... please spare our program a season ending injury this year...

Bearsalwayswin
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at least he goes out a bear
Quinton
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bear2be2 said:

Quinton said:

Good pickup, much more so with an extra year of maturity (physically/skill). Assuming he's redshirting.

Looks like Drew is going all in to retain everyone for two years. If he can pull it off and the Mingo brothers develop a shot, 27/28 would be a contender.

Is the younger Mingo for sure going to have to redshirt? I've heard he suffered an ankle injury but wasn't sure of the severity of it.

Either way, this is a really nice pickup. But if he can't play, we still need to finish the playing roster for 2026-27 with one more shooter/scorer. If he can play, I'd imagine we're pretty much done outside of a developmental player or two.


Good question, I'm not sure. Would like it better with a year to get healthy and develop. Think he has high potential but would be ideal with a year of development.

Polarizing prospect that would feel much better about with the redshirt yr. Either way, it's a good pick up.
bear2be2
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Quinton said:

bear2be2 said:

Quinton said:

Good pickup, much more so with an extra year of maturity (physically/skill). Assuming he's redshirting.

Looks like Drew is going all in to retain everyone for two years. If he can pull it off and the Mingo brothers develop a shot, 27/28 would be a contender.

Is the younger Mingo for sure going to have to redshirt? I've heard he suffered an ankle injury but wasn't sure of the severity of it.

Either way, this is a really nice pickup. But if he can't play, we still need to finish the playing roster for 2026-27 with one more shooter/scorer. If he can play, I'd imagine we're pretty much done outside of a developmental player or two.


Good question, I'm not sure. Would like it better with a year to get healthy and develop. Think he has high potential but would be ideal with a year of development.

Polarizing prospect that would feel much better about with the redshirt yr. Either way, it's a good pick up.

If he can play, I want him to play. This team needs another elite athlete/high-ceiling talent to replace those lost in Carr in Yessoufou.

With a healthy Dylan Mingo, I think this team has the talent and depth to be pretty competitive in the Big 12. Without him, I think we're still likely a player short.
Ewalker80
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If healthy, this teams seems to have the highest ceiling since 2022. But our team hasn't stayed healthy since 2021. Injuries have basically been the most important determining factor of whether these teams have been successful this decade.

We're starting off the season with no less than 3 contributors coming off significant injuries ---- Dylan Mingo, Bodo Bodo, and Perez. We really need Dylan and Bodo Bodo to return to full health to reach the ceiling, but that's a pretty dang high ceiling if it happens.

Rob Wright does not want a healthy Dylan Mingo guarding him --- I'm nor sure he could even get a shot off. Please please let this happen.
boognish_bear
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TXBEAR_bf
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Quinton, curious, why do you say he is polarizing? Just curious if he has shown attitude issues that compromise team chemistry? Thats the hardest part of 5 star recruitment. These guys have been told how great they are for years. A guy like VJ is unique in that he was coach able and a team player from day 1. Hoping that is the case with Mingo.
Bear living in the woods of Bend Oregon
Mitch Henessey
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I don't think Dylan Mingo is polarizing. If anything, the knock against him is that he overplayed his hand at UNC and lost his spot on Malone's first roster. Learning experience, and assuming he's healthy, I'll bet he comes in with a chip on his shoulder.
Quinton
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No, I want to make it clear I'm not implying any character issue. Not what I meant.

He has great size and gives effort on D. Good handle.

But there are questions whether his skill and athleticism is a little overrated. There is scouting out there that says good but not great at anything type..can't shoot well.

I don't have a clear opinion either way, but from watching clips I can see why some are completely sold and others are convinced he's overhyped. I think he'll be good as the most consistent aspect of Bu's program is offensive development.
Big12Fan2024
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Dylan's never been a bad team guy to my knowledge. I didn't take it as what Quinton was hinting at. He has a lot of things going for him, the best which would be Baylor finally having a reasonably tall PG. Where Dylan is gonna have to improve is outside shooting. He was a noted bricklayer on the AAU circuit and coudn't hit the broad side of a barn from the outside when I saw him play 4 times a couple of years ago. He makes up for it with his ability to drive and create. From there he scores well as he is excellent at getting to the rim. Also has really good court vision. Pretty good, not great, defender. Biggest concern I have with Dylan is that we can't afford for him to be another in a long line of injury prone players so hopefully he recovers enough to play in the Fall/Winter.
BUBradley
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Personally, I am happy to get the 3rd highest recruit in Baylor history and excited to see what he does on the court. The rest is noise.
Big12Fan2024
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BUBradley said:

Personally, I am happy to get the 3rd highest recruit in Baylor history and excited to see what he does on the court. The rest is noise.

And therein will be the biggest question. Does he ever see the court. Otherwise, it's all noise including any recruiting rankings.
BUBradley
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I have sources I trust that tell me hes playing this season.
Bearsalwayswin
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heck ya!
Crawfoso1973
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Ewalker80 said:

If healthy, this teams seems to have the highest ceiling since 2022. But our team hasn't stayed healthy since 2021. Injuries have basically been the most important determining factor of whether these teams have been successful this decade.

We're starting off the season with no less than 3 contributors coming off significant injuries ---- Dylan Mingo, Bodo Bodo, and Perez. We really need Dylan and Bodo Bodo to return to full health to reach the ceiling, but that's a pretty dang high ceiling if it happens.

Rob Wright does not want a healthy Dylan Mingo guarding him --- I'm nor sure he could even get a shot off. Please please let this happen.

We have a high ceiling but our floor could be even lower than the ****show season we just endured. We have a ton of variables and question marks. We are relying on multiple players currently injured or coming off serious injury. Once again a whole new team of transfers who may / may not readily adapt to the rigors of big 12 play. Been burned by the likes of Celestine and Rataj over the past couple years, so I am gonna make them show me something before becoming emotionally invested in it.
IvanBear
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Crawfoso1973 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If healthy, this teams seems to have the highest ceiling since 2022. But our team hasn't stayed healthy since 2021. Injuries have basically been the most important determining factor of whether these teams have been successful this decade.

We're starting off the season with no less than 3 contributors coming off significant injuries ---- Dylan Mingo, Bodo Bodo, and Perez. We really need Dylan and Bodo Bodo to return to full health to reach the ceiling, but that's a pretty dang high ceiling if it happens.

Rob Wright does not want a healthy Dylan Mingo guarding him --- I'm nor sure he could even get a shot off. Please please let this happen.

We have a high ceiling but our floor could be even lower than the ****show season we just endured. We have a ton of variables and question marks. We are relying on multiple players currently injured or coming off serious injury. Once again a whole new team of transfers who may / may not readily adapt to the rigors of big 12 play. Been burned by the likes of Celestine and Rataj over the past couple years, so I am gonna make them show me something before becoming emotionally invested in it.

We are once again putting our stock in a 5* freshman, not experienced leadership. While the roster construction is much more competent over prior years, I'm concerned we're still going to have the same problems those prior years had leaning on a freshman and a total lack of consistency around him.

Having said that we have to build the program back tot he point where we home grow talented experienced leadership, and I feel like this roster sets us up better for that. I think we're a talented tall wing away from being a real contender in the big 12 this year and even then I'm not sure I see a team capable of competing for a big 12 championship. I just hope we continue making moves that look 2-3 seasons down the line not just 2026/2027 band-aids.
Adriacus Peratuun
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Crawfoso1973 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If healthy, this teams seems to have the highest ceiling since 2022. But our team hasn't stayed healthy since 2021. Injuries have basically been the most important determining factor of whether these teams have been successful this decade.

We're starting off the season with no less than 3 contributors coming off significant injuries ---- Dylan Mingo, Bodo Bodo, and Perez. We really need Dylan and Bodo Bodo to return to full health to reach the ceiling, but that's a pretty dang high ceiling if it happens.

Rob Wright does not want a healthy Dylan Mingo guarding him --- I'm nor sure he could even get a shot off. Please please let this happen.

We have a high ceiling but our floor could be even lower than the ****show season we just endured. We have a ton of variables and question marks. We are relying on multiple players currently injured or coming off serious injury. Once again a whole new team of transfers who may / may not readily adapt to the rigors of big 12 play. Been burned by the likes of Celestine and Rataj over the past couple years, so I am gonna make them show me something before becoming emotionally invested in it.


Massive difference in depth from prior years. That one item means the hit rate on portal adds doesn't need to be 100% like it had to be past year and beyond. Also the institutional knowledge retention is vastly higher. Certain item? No. Certain results? No. Vastly better starting point? Yes.
bear2be2
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IvanBear said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If healthy, this teams seems to have the highest ceiling since 2022. But our team hasn't stayed healthy since 2021. Injuries have basically been the most important determining factor of whether these teams have been successful this decade.

We're starting off the season with no less than 3 contributors coming off significant injuries ---- Dylan Mingo, Bodo Bodo, and Perez. We really need Dylan and Bodo Bodo to return to full health to reach the ceiling, but that's a pretty dang high ceiling if it happens.

Rob Wright does not want a healthy Dylan Mingo guarding him --- I'm nor sure he could even get a shot off. Please please let this happen.

We have a high ceiling but our floor could be even lower than the ****show season we just endured. We have a ton of variables and question marks. We are relying on multiple players currently injured or coming off serious injury. Once again a whole new team of transfers who may / may not readily adapt to the rigors of big 12 play. Been burned by the likes of Celestine and Rataj over the past couple years, so I am gonna make them show me something before becoming emotionally invested in it.

We are once again putting our stock in a 5* freshman, not experienced leadership. While the roster construction is much more competent over prior years, I'm concerned we're still going to have the same problems those prior years had leaning on a freshman and a total lack of consistency around him.

Having said that we have to build the program back tot he point where we home grow talented experienced leadership, and I feel like this roster sets us up better for that. I think we're a talented tall wing away from being a real contender in the big 12 this year and even then I'm not sure I see a team capable of competing for a big 12 championship. I just hope we continue making moves that look 2-3 seasons down the line not just 2026/2027 band-aids.

I don't think we're putting undue stock in or expectations on Dylan Mingo. I think he was the finishing piece to a roster that was built around an experienced (while still young) core of Jayden Mingo, Isaac Williams, Brett Decker, Isaac Celiscar, Evan Chatman and Juslin Bodo Bodo.

Mingo, like Elijah Williams, Maikcol Perez and Mayo Soyoye, is going to play and have a chance to be a really important player in our rotation. But he's not being brought in to be a savior. His usage will be higher than that of the other freshmen, but like them, he's being brought in to play to his strengths and help make the guys around him better.
 
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