espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30423107/ncaa-women-bracketology-2024-women-college-basketball-projections

Gonna be tough to get a top 4 seed and secure HC the first 2 rounds. Just not enough resume building games left.

Staying out of the Baton Rouge regional would be nice

MrGolfguy said:

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Staying out of the Baton Rouge regional would be nice

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Creme likes to pair rivals - I don't think we'll be in BR. But who knows.

I know it wouldn't be ideal, but it's drivable and would be very entertaining

franke said:

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I know it wouldn't be ideal, but it's drivable and would be very entertaining

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Especially if the Bears take em out. I wouldn't put it past them to do it, either. You don't have to beat them best two out of three, only 1 game. The motivation for the Bears winning would be off the charts.

That's a horrible matchup for our Bears. And I don't think the gals going to LSU is even feasible. The ladies would have to struggle down the stretch to fall into the 7-10 seed range (lsu will likely be a 2) think Baylor barring a collapse gets a 5-6 seed. 4 isn't off the table just yet. But the chances for resume builders just aren't there with ISU falling off a cliff and KSU losing Lee.

BU is currently a 7

Girls will work their way up the seed line. Schedule is awfully easy through February. Should stack a boatload of dubs the next 5 weeks

I think Baylor can possibly get 5 seed if they win out and beat TCU at Foster. As someone said, being in top 16 is not likely. Only ranked teams left on our schedule are KSU, TCU and West Virginia. West Virginia recently lost and I can see KSU dropping several more games without Lee.

IowaBear said:

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That's a horrible matchup for our Bears. And I don't think the gals going to LSU is even feasible. The ladies would have to struggle down the stretch to fall into the 7-10 seed range (lsu will likely be a 2) think Baylor barring a collapse gets a 5-6 seed. 4 isn't off the table just yet. But the chances for resume builders just aren't there with ISU falling off a cliff and KSU losing Lee.

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I agree but you know very well of what can happen in a one-game situation. A 16 seed has beaten a 1 seed. It wasn't LSU's best year, but they barely beat Jackson State in 2022 in round 1. Crazy stuff happens, injuries, quick foul trouble, etc. I'll put it this way, the pressure would be on LSU, not Baylor if such a game occurred. You don't have to be the best team, you just have to win the one game.

I also agree on the feasibility of it happening. I think he had us going there last year about this time, and was way off base as it turned out. I think a lot of surprises may come when the seeds come out. I know seeding is not based on the polling, but if the 30th ranked team (Baylor now) only loses to the 9th ranked team by essentially 3 points on that team's home court, it tells me that there is not a lot of difference in teams 10-29. I don't think the seeding will look anything like the current rankings.

We may get some help in the "resume building" thing by higher teams laying some big eggs along the way as the season winds down.

16 has never beaten a 1 in the woman's game. I'm not even sure a 15 has beaten a 2?
First round upsets are very rare in the woman's game. Last years big Rd1 upset was MTSU over Louisville. And I think that was more to do with MTSU being under seeded. They looked more like an 8 seed than a 12 imo

Look it up Stanford lost to Harvard in a 1 vs 16 matchup in 1998.

Holy moly

Only time a 1 has defeated a 16 in women's game. It's pretty historic that it is even on Wikipedia.

ScottyB_The_Baylor_King said:

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Look it up Stanford lost to Harvard in a 1 vs 16 matchup in 1998.

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Yes, this is true. I don't think a 2 or 3 seed has lost in the first round, but LSU tried in 2022. As a 3-seed they escaped by the skin of their teeth to Jackson State. I think the story I saw in the Harvard-Stanford game was that Stanford had some pretty significant injuries leading up to game. But those things happen. You have to play with what you have and what you are suppose to be doesn't always turn out.

I recall that from reading it. Even Texas A&M almost lost as a 2 seed once.

Aggie gonna Aggie !

MrGolfguy said:

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espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30423107/ncaa-women-bracketology-2024-women-college-basketball-projections

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Updated 2/4/25

Still a 7 seed

If that panned out we would play UConn in Storrs in the second round.Other 2 seeds are LSU,Texas and TCU.Earning a better seed would be huge.We all dream of moving to a fourth seed and hosting 2 rounds.

We can all dream.. unfortunately our remaining schedule doesn't move the needle much. Will probably have to beat TCU twice (here and in KC) to even be in the convo to host. Probably need to win out.

Facing Dawn Plitzuweit again would be interesting

Currently we're at 0 Quad 1 wins. Utah is currently NET 26. If they move up 1 spot that will become a Quad 1 win. We have 3 Quad 1 matchups left on the schedule: WV, Kansas State, and TCU

Gonna need to go at least 2-1 in those 3 to have a chance at hosting imo. Just not a lot of opportunities for Q1 wins. B12 is bad outside of 3-4 teams

IowaBear said:

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Gonna need to go at least 2-1 in those 3 to have a chance at hosting imo. Just not a lot of opportunities for Q1 wins. B12 is bad outside of 3-4 teams

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Serious question.....does it matter if teams having more Q1 wins in other conferences start laying eggs in their remaining schedule? Somehow something should look at how teams have played in their last 10-15 games versus what they did the first 10 or 15.

Good question. I'd imagine it probably depends. The men's field is pretty heavily weighted based on Q1 wins/Net
We've seen this to an extent in the woman's game. Just look at LSU the last few years. Ridiculous records but seeded as a 3 due to the lack of Q1 wins. Maryland is another example from recent years. UConn last year was also a 3 in large part due to the lack of Q1 wins (Big East WBB is brutal)
Unfortunately for the lady bears we just don't have the wins worthy of even hosting at this point. Texas and OU leaving really hurt our league especially now that both squads have returned to relevance.
I'd like to think how your playing matters but judged on past seeding I don't think it's weighted that heavily. Girls are stacking the wins but the opponents unfortunately have been pretty terrible. Still think we can climb up as high as 5 with a solid finish. If we somehow run the table Foster is gonna play host imo

IowaBear said:

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Holy moly

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Allison Feaster (the Beaster!)

I agree. If we run the table (that will be difficult but possible), we have a good chance to host. We will be Big 12 Champions and have beaten TCU, KState and West Virginia.

Yup that's the sauce IMO to hosting. The other challenge is we need those 3 to keep winning aside from when they play the Lady Bears

Chibears2 said:

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IowaBear said:

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Holy moly

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Allison Feaster (the Beaster!)

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We would struggle against her daughter if we had to go to Storrs again

franke said:

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Chibears2 said:

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IowaBear said:

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Holy moly

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Allison Feaster (the Beaster!)

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We would struggle against her daughter if we had to go to Storrs again

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Genetics is a powerful thing!

IowaBear said:

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Good question. I'd imagine it probably depends. The men's field is pretty heavily weighted based on Q1 wins/Net
We've seen this to an extent in the woman's game. Just look at LSU the last few years. Ridiculous records but seeded as a 3 due to the lack of Q1 wins. Maryland is another example from recent years. UConn last year was also a 3 in large part due to the lack of Q1 wins (Big East WBB is brutal)
Unfortunately for the lady bears we just don't have the wins worthy of even hosting at this point. Texas and OU leaving really hurt our league especially now that both squads have returned to relevance.
I'd like to think how your playing matters but judged on past seeding I don't think it's weighted that heavily. Girls are stacking the wins but the opponents unfortunately have been pretty terrible. Still think we can climb up as high as 5 with a solid finish. If we somehow run the table Foster is gonna play host imo

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On a couple of occasions during Selection Sunday the broadcasters have mentioned the last ten game record. Not sure if that is something the actual committee looks at, or just something that they use to gauge whether a team is "hot" coming into the tournament. If we run the table, I think we are looking at a 5 seed. If we hiccup against TCU, and only TCU, I think we can muster up a 6. If we lose a game we shouldn't, then we might be looking at a 7-8. There are not a lot of games left, but there are a ton of different possibilities for the team.

Please explain to me how Utah can be a 6 and we are a 7??

allybear said:

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Please explain to me how Utah can be a 6 and we are a 7??

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They beat Notre Dame