whiterock said:

---

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Sure,

Turkey might want the Black sea...and the Balkans as well...but they won't have the people to exercise that kind of control in the future.

Their fertility rate is now down below replacement rate of 2.1

Fertility rate of Turkey: 1.92 (reported rate...could actually be lower)

rate of Germany: 1.6

rate of Japan: 1.4

Turkey will start losing population around 2050...and it will continue to lose population long term unless it starts importing in immigrants.

The Turkish population register counted 4% fewer 0-year olds in 2022 than the year before. From that, it follows that the TFR of Turkey in 2022 was 1.64, down from 1.70 in 2021. In the provinces of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, the TFR was just 1.3 kids per woman anymore. https://t.co/GRX7axojDj

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) February 6, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Sure,

Turkey might want the Black sea...and the Balkans as well...but they won't have the people to exercise that kind of control in the future.

Their fertility rate is now down below replacement rate of 2.1

Fertility rate of Turkey: 1.92 (reported rate...could actually be lower)

rate of Germany: 1.6

rate of Japan: 1.4

Turkey will start losing population around 2050...and it will continue to lose population long term unless it starts importing in immigrants.

The Turkish population register counted 4% fewer 0-year olds in 2022 than the year before. From that, it follows that the TFR of Turkey in 2022 was 1.64, down from 1.70 in 2021. In the provinces of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, the TFR was just 1.3 kids per woman anymore. https://t.co/GRX7axojDj

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) February 6, 2023

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

He eliminated it. Russia controlled all of its shatter zones. Outright owned the Caucus all the way up to the Turkish border. Controlled all of eastern Europe (via proxy states) from the Finnish border to the Turkish border. Also controlled all the approaches (invasion routes) in Central Asia and East Asia. It was the only time in Russian history Russia actually did own/control everything Great Power analysis says Russia always wants to FEEL secure. Yet even then, Russia pushed to destabilize regimes around the world.....not just the core areas contiguous to Russian shatter zones - Western Europe, Middle East, East Asia - but also in Latin America and Africa.

Nothing undermines the argument that Russia deserves pieces of Ukraine (to satisfy valid concerns) more than that very recent history. Nothing we could cede to them in a Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it. They want to restore the USSR footprint....a footprint that in its day was not enough to satisfy Russian nationalism.

The battlefield we have now is the best one we will ever have. We can win it. And should.

---

Not only the battlefield, but the political situation. Putin brought this on by invading. The West will not get this moral high ground again and need to use it. This is an opportunity to help millions of people live free lives and also bring Sweden and Finland into NATO protecting their ways of life. The upside for the number of people outweighs the cost. Strike while the iron is hot...

---

There's no moral high ground here. We've been goading Ukraine into conflict with Russia for a decade or more.

J.R. said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

He eliminated it. Russia controlled all of its shatter zones. Outright owned the Caucus all the way up to the Turkish border. Controlled all of eastern Europe (via proxy states) from the Finnish border to the Turkish border. Also controlled all the approaches (invasion routes) in Central Asia and East Asia. It was the only time in Russian history Russia actually did own/control everything Great Power analysis says Russia always wants to FEEL secure. Yet even then, Russia pushed to destabilize regimes around the world.....not just the core areas contiguous to Russian shatter zones - Western Europe, Middle East, East Asia - but also in Latin America and Africa.

Nothing undermines the argument that Russia deserves pieces of Ukraine (to satisfy valid concerns) more than that very recent history. Nothing we could cede to them in a Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it. They want to restore the USSR footprint....a footprint that in its day was not enough to satisfy Russian nationalism.

The battlefield we have now is the best one we will ever have. We can win it. And should.

---

Not only the battlefield, but the political situation. Putin brought this on by invading. The West will not get this moral high ground again and need to use it. This is an opportunity to help millions of people live free lives and also bring Sweden and Finland into NATO protecting their ways of life. The upside for the number of people outweighs the cost. Strike while the iron is hot...

---

There's no moral high ground here. We've been goading Ukraine into conflict with Russia for a decade or more.

---

and you know this how? Seems to me Russia invaded Ukraine.

---

Ukraine "psychically willed" Russia to invade (cf 'Coneheads')??

J.R. said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

He eliminated it. Russia controlled all of its shatter zones. Outright owned the Caucus all the way up to the Turkish border. Controlled all of eastern Europe (via proxy states) from the Finnish border to the Turkish border. Also controlled all the approaches (invasion routes) in Central Asia and East Asia. It was the only time in Russian history Russia actually did own/control everything Great Power analysis says Russia always wants to FEEL secure. Yet even then, Russia pushed to destabilize regimes around the world.....not just the core areas contiguous to Russian shatter zones - Western Europe, Middle East, East Asia - but also in Latin America and Africa.

Nothing undermines the argument that Russia deserves pieces of Ukraine (to satisfy valid concerns) more than that very recent history. Nothing we could cede to them in a Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it. They want to restore the USSR footprint....a footprint that in its day was not enough to satisfy Russian nationalism.

The battlefield we have now is the best one we will ever have. We can win it. And should.

---

Not only the battlefield, but the political situation. Putin brought this on by invading. The West will not get this moral high ground again and need to use it. This is an opportunity to help millions of people live free lives and also bring Sweden and Finland into NATO protecting their ways of life. The upside for the number of people outweighs the cost. Strike while the iron is hot...

---

There's no moral high ground here. We've been goading Ukraine into conflict with Russia for a decade or more.

---

and you know this how? Seems to me Russia invaded Ukraine.

---

After Ukraine spent 8 years shelling the people of the Donbas with high intensity explosives.

You think this invasion took place in a vacuum?

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

---

They can want to annex the Moon…doesn't mean they can.

Russia has an economy about the size of Italy…yet they are trying to play the military-industrial game with the US-EU (two economic juggernauts).

30% of Russians don't even have indoor toilets.

And Russia's fertility rate is well below replacement with a low life expectancy among males.

Its aging fast and soon will be depopulating.

They don't have the money or the manpower to recreate the USSR or exercise power in that footprint.

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

---

They can want to annex the Moon…doesn't mean they can.

Russia has an economy about the size of Italy…yet they are trying to play the military-industrial game with the US-EU (two economic juggernauts).

30% of Russians don't even have indoor toilets.

And Russia's fertility rate is well below replacement with a low life expectancy among males.

Its aging fast and soon will be depopulating.

They don't have the money or the manpower to recreate the USSR or exercise power in that footprint.

---

Nobody said anything about annexation. The WP wasn't annexed. Crimea was. And the Donbas. But Russia doesn't have to annex a single additional acre of territory to accomplish what it wants. All it has to do is demonstrate that it can destroy a country by outlasting NATO in a grinding, squalid quagmire of a trenches, barbed wire, and desultory artillery barrages. Russia doesn't have to win. It just has to not lose.

We must win the fight we've started.

Or all we do is teach the Eastern European nations that the only thing which can be counted upon is Russia to oulast Nato. Then the entire eastern rim of Nato will begin to question their membership. They will then become a brake on any Nato action at all. That ensures Ukraine will elect a pro-Moscow government, and from there either client state status, or possible anschluss. At that point, all of Eastern Europe will sound like Hungary, or worse. russian Armies rearming right on their borders. Risk of war will be elevated over where it is now. Powder keg.

Stop feeling.
Start thinking.
Appeasement never works.
The tyrants are rarely as strong as they think they are.
Take 'em out while they're weak.
We will never again have this kind of advantage

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

---

You are, not surprisingly, informed by the same propaganda that you've reproduced so tirelessly on these threads. But I will say thanks for a very revealing post. You've demonstrated that even offers of cooperation and appeals to international law can be taken as a declaration of war if one is sufficiently determined to find it.

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

---

They can want to annex the Moon…doesn't mean they can.

Russia has an economy about the size of Italy…yet they are trying to play the military-industrial game with the US-EU (two economic juggernauts).

30% of Russians don't even have indoor toilets.

And Russia's fertility rate is well below replacement with a low life expectancy among males.

Its aging fast and soon will be depopulating.

They don't have the money or the manpower to recreate the USSR or exercise power in that footprint.

---

Nobody said anything about annexation. The WP wasn't annexed. Crimea was. And the Donbas. But Russia doesn't have to annex a single additional acre of territory to accomplish what it wants. All it has to do is demonstrate that it can destroy a country by outlasting NATO in a grinding, squalid quagmire of a trenches, barbed wire, and desultory artillery barrages. Russia doesn't have to win. It just has to not lose.

We must win the fight we've started.

Or all we do is teach the Eastern European nations that the only thing which can be counted upon is Russia to oulast Nato. Then the entire eastern rim of Nato will begin to question their membership. They will then become a brake on any Nato action at all. That ensures Ukraine will elect a pro-Moscow government, and from there either client state status, or possible anschluss. At that point, all of Eastern Europe will sound like Hungary, or worse. russian Armies rearming right on their borders. Risk of war will be elevated over where it is now. Powder keg.

Stop feeling.
Start thinking.
Appeasement never works.
The tyrants are rarely as strong as they think they are.
Take 'em out while they're weak.
We will never again have this kind of advantage

---

You are making a lot of assumptions.

Including that Eastern European states now in NATO might want out.

There is no evidence for this.

In fact the Russo-Ukraine war has breathed new life into NATO and given these counties a reason to keep the alliance active and alive.

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

---

They can want to annex the Moon…doesn't mean they can.

Russia has an economy about the size of Italy…yet they are trying to play the military-industrial game with the US-EU (two economic juggernauts).

30% of Russians don't even have indoor toilets.

And Russia's fertility rate is well below replacement with a low life expectancy among males.

Its aging fast and soon will be depopulating.

They don't have the money or the manpower to recreate the USSR or exercise power in that footprint.

---

Nobody said anything about annexation. The WP wasn't annexed. Crimea was. And the Donbas. But Russia doesn't have to annex a single additional acre of territory to accomplish what it wants. All it has to do is demonstrate that it can destroy a country by outlasting NATO in a grinding, squalid quagmire of a trenches, barbed wire, and desultory artillery barrages. Russia doesn't have to win. It just has to not lose.

We must win the fight we've started.

Or all we do is teach the Eastern European nations that the only thing which can be counted upon is Russia to oulast Nato. Then the entire eastern rim of Nato will begin to question their membership. They will then become a brake on any Nato action at all. That ensures Ukraine will elect a pro-Moscow government, and from there either client state status, or possible anschluss. At that point, all of Eastern Europe will sound like Hungary, or worse. russian Armies rearming right on their borders. Risk of war will be elevated over where it is now. Powder keg.

Stop feeling.
Start thinking.
Appeasement never works.
The tyrants are rarely as strong as they think they are.
Take 'em out while they're weak.
We will never again have this kind of advantage

---

You are making a lot of assumptions.

Including that Eastern European states now in NATO might want out.

There is no evidence for this.

In fact the Russo-Ukraine war has breathed new life into NATO and given these counties a reason to keep the alliance active and alive.

---

I disagree somewhat. Europe has been dragged into the conflict mostly unwillingly, and they're the ones bearing most of the pain. At the same time, the US has shown itself unwilling to act as a front-line defender or much of anything else except an instigator of others' misery. European interests and sympathies will likely trend eastward as a result.

Whiterock continues to understand what is going on.

One thing History teaches those who pay attention, is that we have to work on our relationship over time. Our relationship with Great Britain, for example - the 'special relationship' - is very different today than it was under Reagan, and that was different from when FDR was working with Churchill.

It is that much more important to watch what happens with rivals and potential enemies. Russia in particular, for reasons anyone familiar with Geography understands.

Russia has endured real famine in ways the US never has. Russia has been in Total War in was the US never has. It is therefore a serious mistake to treat Russia as the same as the US.

As for NATO, no one is saying the member countries want out, any of them. But the accepted obligations of those member nations changes over time, according to what those nations want or fear from the US, Russia, and other regional nations.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an unacceptable condition. But what to do remains a hot topic of debate.

US personnel should avoid direct participation in the fighting, for obvious reasons.

But pouring endless amounts of tax money into the conflict is incredibly stupid, as well.

The more I hear about all this, the more I fear there are no serious professionals making the decisions.

Sam Lowry said:

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RMF5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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ATL Bear said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

He eliminated it. Russia controlled all of its shatter zones. Outright owned the Caucus all the way up to the Turkish border. Controlled all of eastern Europe (via proxy states) from the Finnish border to the Turkish border. Also controlled all the approaches (invasion routes) in Central Asia and East Asia. It was the only time in Russian history Russia actually did own/control everything Great Power analysis says Russia always wants to FEEL secure. Yet even then, Russia pushed to destabilize regimes around the world.....not just the core areas contiguous to Russian shatter zones - Western Europe, Middle East, East Asia - but also in Latin America and Africa.

Nothing undermines the argument that Russia deserves pieces of Ukraine (to satisfy valid concerns) more than that very recent history. Nothing we could cede to them in a Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it. They want to restore the USSR footprint....a footprint that in its day was not enough to satisfy Russian nationalism.

The battlefield we have now is the best one we will ever have. We can win it. And should.

---

Not only the battlefield, but the political situation. Putin brought this on by invading. The West will not get this moral high ground again and need to use it. This is an opportunity to help millions of people live free lives and also bring Sweden and Finland into NATO protecting their ways of life. The upside for the number of people outweighs the cost. Strike while the iron is hot...

---

There's no moral high ground here. We've been goading Ukraine into conflict with Russia for a decade or more.

---

Putin invaded. He rolled tanks over a neighboring sovereign border, there is no defense. He is wrong. Deserves what he gets.

REGIME CHANGE COMING IN HUNGARY

She’s setting up the mechanisms to overthrow Viktor Orban—“Pro-democracy Non-Government Organizations” which are actually CIA contractors to recruit agents provocateurs.

Soon there’ll be riots in Budapest. You watch—they always do the same thing. https://t.co/qAWwTAS2dP

— Gonzalo Lira (@GonzaloLira1968) February 12, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

---

They can want to annex the Moon…doesn't mean they can.

Russia has an economy about the size of Italy…yet they are trying to play the military-industrial game with the US-EU (two economic juggernauts).

30% of Russians don't even have indoor toilets.

And Russia's fertility rate is well below replacement with a low life expectancy among males.

Its aging fast and soon will be depopulating.

They don't have the money or the manpower to recreate the USSR or exercise power in that footprint.

---

Nobody said anything about annexation. The WP wasn't annexed. Crimea was. And the Donbas. But Russia doesn't have to annex a single additional acre of territory to accomplish what it wants. All it has to do is demonstrate that it can destroy a country by outlasting NATO in a grinding, squalid quagmire of a trenches, barbed wire, and desultory artillery barrages. Russia doesn't have to win. It just has to not lose.

We must win the fight we've started.

Or all we do is teach the Eastern European nations that the only thing which can be counted upon is Russia to oulast Nato. Then the entire eastern rim of Nato will begin to question their membership. They will then become a brake on any Nato action at all. That ensures Ukraine will elect a pro-Moscow government, and from there either client state status, or possible anschluss. At that point, all of Eastern Europe will sound like Hungary, or worse. russian Armies rearming right on their borders. Risk of war will be elevated over where it is now. Powder keg.

Stop feeling.
Start thinking.
Appeasement never works.
The tyrants are rarely as strong as they think they are.
Take 'em out while they're weak.
We will never again have this kind of advantage

---

You are making a lot of assumptions.

Including that Eastern European states now in NATO might want out.

There is no evidence for this.

In fact the Russo-Ukraine war has breathed new life into NATO and given these counties a reason to keep the alliance active and alive.

---

Your analysis is static (and overly premised on kinetics rather than politics). Things wax & wane. Governments come and go (in democracies). We can no more take for granted the united NATO we see today than we can green grass in Texas in August. Such things take a lot of work in good circumstances and we do not always have good circumstances.

Who could have possibly predicted a left-wing German government to be more hawkish on Russia policy than it's right wing predecessor?

What endures are interests. Russia has always wanted the things I cite. Russia will always want the things I cite. The only question is, are we going to let them have it? If the administration in Germany is gassing Jews, that might be a fair tradeoff. But when every state west of Russia save one (Belarus) is an aspiring or functioning democracy and Russia is plainly offering autocracy as a superior business model, the answer is a hard no. We do not cede them an inch just because acquiring more territory or influence is in their best interests. Such is not in our best interests. It only strengthens an adversary. It only increases the odds of conflict. It only moves that potential conflict closer to us and key allies. There is no upside w.h.a.t.s.o.e.v.e.r.

The day the Kiev regime changes to resemble the Minsk regime is the day politics in Eastern Europe is fundamentally altered. The eastern flank of NATO will formally request NATO troops stationed on their soil (something we have never done to avoid provoking Russia, who invaded Ukraine anyway.....) If we do not agree, even the staunchest anti-Russian factions will see the handwriting on the wall - they are on their own. If we do agree, Russia will scream bloody murder and escalate......with troops on the borders of those nations...treating it as a Cuban missile crisis. And those nations will rightly fear war. And the pro-Russian factions will, eventually, win a few elections. And we will actually be dealing with destabilization of NATO and all the risks which come with it.

Every nation has its Chamberlains & Churchills. Not every nation has a moat separating it from its threat. And not every nation has a Churchill equivalent to the real thing.

If we do not stand right where we are, everything gets harder.

whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

---

You are, not surprisingly, informed by the same propaganda that you've reproduced so tirelessly on these threads. But I will say thanks for a very revealing post. You've demonstrated that even offers of cooperation and appeals to international law can be taken as a declaration of war if one is sufficiently determined to find it.

---

I could fill a long post full of citations of center and left publications which (correctly) interpret what you cite as (Russian) "offers of cooperation" as the proverbial middle finger to Nato.

Nobody is paying you to argue the case you've taken. You could quit making patently silly arguments.

Russia wanted this fight. It thought it could win this fight easily. Nobody backed anyone into anything. The current war is as easy to understand as the bully who didn't take his opponents seriously enough and ended up needing a new nose and lot of new teeth.

We need to finish the job.

---

Hear Hear.

“Ukrainian” oligarch says he placed Jewish death curse on Putin: https://t.co/IxPjmBSIL3

— Bill X🇺🇸✝️ (@Bill4Christ) February 11, 2023

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

---

They can want to annex the Moon…doesn't mean they can.

Russia has an economy about the size of Italy…yet they are trying to play the military-industrial game with the US-EU (two economic juggernauts).

30% of Russians don't even have indoor toilets.

And Russia's fertility rate is well below replacement with a low life expectancy among males.

Its aging fast and soon will be depopulating.

They don't have the money or the manpower to recreate the USSR or exercise power in that footprint.

---

Nobody said anything about annexation. The WP wasn't annexed. Crimea was. And the Donbas. But Russia doesn't have to annex a single additional acre of territory to accomplish what it wants. All it has to do is demonstrate that it can destroy a country by outlasting NATO in a grinding, squalid quagmire of a trenches, barbed wire, and desultory artillery barrages. Russia doesn't have to win. It just has to not lose.

We must win the fight we've started.

Or all we do is teach the Eastern European nations that the only thing which can be counted upon is Russia to oulast Nato. Then the entire eastern rim of Nato will begin to question their membership. They will then become a brake on any Nato action at all. That ensures Ukraine will elect a pro-Moscow government, and from there either client state status, or possible anschluss. At that point, all of Eastern Europe will sound like Hungary, or worse. russian Armies rearming right on their borders. Risk of war will be elevated over where it is now. Powder keg.

Stop feeling.
Start thinking.
Appeasement never works.
The tyrants are rarely as strong as they think they are.
Take 'em out while they're weak.
We will never again have this kind of advantage

---

You are making a lot of assumptions.

Including that Eastern European states now in NATO might want out.

There is no evidence for this.

In fact the Russo-Ukraine war has breathed new life into NATO and given these counties a reason to keep the alliance active and alive.

---

Governments come and go (in democracies). We can no more take for granted the united NATO we see today than we can green grass in Texas in August. Such things take a lot of work in good circumstances and we do not always have good circumstances.

Who could have possibly predicted a left-wing German government to be more hawkish on Russia policy than it's right wing predecessor?

What endures are interests. Russia has always wanted the things I cite. Russia will always want the things I cite. The only question is, are we going to let them have it? If the administration in Germany is gassing Jews, that might be a fair tradeoff. But when every state west of Russia save one (Belarus) is an aspiring or functioning democracy and Russia is plainly offering autocracy as a superior business model, the answer is a hard no. We do not cede them an inch just because acquiring more territory or influence is in their best interests. Such is not in our best interests. It only strengthens an adversary. It only increases the odds of conflict. It only moves that potential conflict closer to us and key allies. There is no upside w.h.a.t.s.o.e.v.e.r.



.

---

You admit that nations don't have permanent alliances…what they have is permanent interests.

So you must acknowledge that Russia has permanent and long term interests in Ukraine. No matter what kind of government (Czarist, Communist, democrat, or other wise) rules in Moscow.

What exactly are American permanent and long term interests in Ukraine?

Heck we didn't even start to really bother with the place until Obama's presidency.

"What exactly are American permanent and long term interests in Ukraine?"

To counter and contain Russia, our long time enemy/rival who has proven throughout that history of enmity to have a tendency for invading or directly meddling with Western countries. Not just a historical tendency, they are doing it in the here and now at an accelerated rate. They are also likely to be China's chief ally should conflict between them and the United States break out.

We currently occupy a dominant position in the world, our military and economic prowess make us the top dog. Russia and Putin have been quite explicitly clear that they don't like that, and they view the war with Ukraine as the beginning of their attempt to change it.

Do you honestly believe that if we let Russia just hunker down and keep their gains so far, that settles the issue and ends things? I don't. I'm not sure why anyone who knows anything about the history of even the last 30 years would believe that.

HuMcK said:

---

They are also likely to be China's chief ally should conflict between them and the United States break out.

---

Well…now they are.

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Many have argued that the large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Poland,Germany,Czechia & other countries will solve their respective demographic crunches. I have two principal thoughts on the topic. First (& most importantly imo)such a solution comes at enormous cost to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pvHiZ5hV59

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

A Ukraine of <30M but with huge numbers of pensioners will struggle to prosper. Most towns & cities emptied by the war would also never repopulate (many will not regardless as smaller cities & towns destroyed will not be rebuilt). The state will be deprived of tax revenue. pic.twitter.com/0D5lLfeENe

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 9, 2023

---

Turkey will want to open up the refugee pipeline from Syria.

Remember, Crimea and much of southern Ukr (Donbas in particular) were Khanates allied with Ottomans for centuries.

To the extent we talk about Russian nationalism, it's not the only nationalism at play. Turkish nationalism wants the Black Sea as Turkish lake.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

---

Stalin took great lengths to try and remove that issue.

---

Nothing we could cede to them in an Ukraine War peace settlement will prevent them from cranking up the next operation next door. They've stated it.

---

If you mean they've stated exactly the opposite, then yes.

---

You are, not surprisingly, exceedingly poorly informed.

This link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918
is a fair summary of his speech, here: https://introvertum.com/vladimir-putins-munich-speech-on-february-10-2007-full-text-in-english/
which puts in better perspective:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879

Russia wants to regain control over its entire former USSR and WP footprint. That they cannot accomplish such in a short period of time does not mean the intention has no bearing on current policy. Quite the opposite. It means the best time to resist is NOW.

---

You are, not surprisingly, informed by the same propaganda that you've reproduced so tirelessly on these threads. But I will say thanks for a very revealing post. You've demonstrated that even offers of cooperation and appeals to international law can be taken as a declaration of war if one is sufficiently determined to find it.

---

I could fill a long post full of citations of center and left publications which (correctly) interpret what you cite as (Russian) "offers of cooperation" as the proverbial middle finger to Nato.

---

I'm sure you could. Going in search of monsters to destroy has long been a favorite pastime of the left. Conservatives should have no interest in it. We're not on a crusade against "autocracy."

Avoiding peace talks in Ukraine could cause Armageddon, PETER HITCHENS https://t.co/XzM1c5A1s6 via @MailOnline

— Peter Hitchens (@ClarkeMicah) February 11, 2023

HuMcK said:

---

"What exactly are American permanent and long term interests in Ukraine?"

To counter and contain Russia, our long time enemy/rival who has proven throughout that history of enmity to have a tendency for invading or directly meddling with Western countries. Not just a historical tendency, they are doing it in the here and now at an accelerated rate. They are also likely to be China's chief ally should conflict between them and the United States break out.

We currently occupy a dominant position in the world, our military and economic prowess make us the top dog. Russia and Putin have been quite explicitly clear that they don't like that, and they view the war with Ukraine as the beginning of their attempt to change it.

Do you honestly believe that if we let Russia just hunker down and keep their gains so far, that settles the issue and ends things? I don't. I'm not sure why anyone who knows anything about the history of even the last 30 years would believe that.

---

Russia has never been our historic enemy.

In fact the Russian people were our ally in two world wars.

Our enemy from 1945 on was a Marxist-Communist USSR.

That leftist empire is gone…finished…dead.

If you want to make modern Russia our eternal enemy then you are asking for a massive world war.

But don't try and rewrite history. Or conflate the modern Russian state with the USSR.

'the Russian people were our ally in two world wars.'

Not so much.

In ww1 we never even met Russians, who had signed their own cease-fire with the Axis powers about the same time that the US entered the war.

In ww2 we allied technically with the USSR because we saw the Nazis as a greater threat, and could not afford to fight both. And like ww1, most US soldiers never met up with Soviet troops and the ones who did found them hostile and generally untrustworthy.

The Russian people were happy we sent food and weapons. But they didn't exactly become Americanophiles.

Oldbear83 said:

---

'the Russian people were our ally in two world wars.'

Not so much.

In ww1 we never even met Russians, who had signed their own cease-fire with the Axis powers about the same time that the US entered the war.

In ww2 we allied technically with the USSR because we saw the Nazis as a greater threat, and could not afford to fight both. And like ww1, most US soldiers never met up with Soviet troops and the ones who did found them hostile and generally untrustworthy.

The Russian people were happy we sent food and weapons. But they didn't exactly become Americanophiles.

---

Now you are nitpicking.

How often did we meet or deal with Japanese troops or Italian troops in WWI? Yet they were still our Allies.

And how often did we meet or fight along side China in WWII? Yet they were also our ally.

We had reasons to align our interests with the Russians in two major world wars. And there is no overwhelming or overriding geo-political reason we have to be adversaries with Russia forever.

Especially since they are no longer a communist empire with troops stationed in Central Europe.

Redbrickbear said:

---

“Ukrainian” oligarch says he placed Jewish death curse on Putin: https://t.co/IxPjmBSIL3

— Bill X🇺🇸✝️ (@Bill4Christ) February 11, 2023

---

I guess you do what you can...

RMF5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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“Ukrainian” oligarch says he placed Jewish death curse on Putin: https://t.co/IxPjmBSIL3

— Bill X🇺🇸✝️ (@Bill4Christ) February 11, 2023

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I guess you do what you can...

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Lol. That is funny.