Russia mobilizes

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Redbrickbear
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12:03a, 5/10/23
People really think these guys are gonna march into Poland….


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trey3216
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 6:11a, 5/10/23
Redbrickbear said:
People really think these guys are gonna march into Poland….




Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
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Sam Lowry
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:58a, 5/10/23
RMF5630 said:
Sam Lowry said:
RMF5630 said:
Redbrickbear said:
This cannot happen that way. If it looks like that is where Ukraine is moving, Zelinsky owes it to the US to ensure it is a joint US/China Peace Negotiation. This would fit as part of Xi's 100 year plan and explain the embrace of Russia. To give China a diplomatic reasonable role, while Biden looks like a mad dog if he doesn't work a way in to the process.
That's what happens when we insist on prolonging the war. China gets to be the adult in the room. Lots of us saw it coming a mile away.


No. It is when the Admin doesn't communicate well. Zelinsky needs to coordinate with the White House if the time comes Ukraine to wants peace. US has supported him, he needs to remember that. Biden needs to not let Xi call the shots, we do.

Your response is ridiculous, surrender early and against Ukraine's wishes? That would have shown them! If you were in charge, we would be back to 1980 borders, so as not to upset Putin. Just give him what he wants or worse just ignore his invasions. It's for the best...
Coordinating with the US is what has caused the war to drag out for over a year. Peace has to be made at some point, whether we like it or not.
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whiterock
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 7:08a, 5/10/23
Redbrickbear said:
People really think these guys are gonna march into Poland….


They must get Ukraine back before they can do that. Ergo, as I've been saying, supporting Ukraine is defending the interests of Nato.
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whiterock
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 7:10a, 5/10/23
Sam Lowry said:
RMF5630 said:
Sam Lowry said:
RMF5630 said:
Redbrickbear said:
This cannot happen that way. If it looks like that is where Ukraine is moving, Zelinsky owes it to the US to ensure it is a joint US/China Peace Negotiation. This would fit as part of Xi's 100 year plan and explain the embrace of Russia. To give China a diplomatic reasonable role, while Biden looks like a mad dog if he doesn't work a way in to the process.
That's what happens when we insist on prolonging the war. China gets to be the adult in the room. Lots of us saw it coming a mile away.


No. It is when the Admin doesn't communicate well. Zelinsky needs to coordinate with the White House if the time comes Ukraine to wants peace. US has supported him, he needs to remember that. Biden needs to not let Xi call the shots, we do.

Your response is ridiculous, surrender early and against Ukraine's wishes? That would have shown them! If you were in charge, we would be back to 1980 borders, so as not to upset Putin. Just give him what he wants or worse just ignore his invasions. It's for the best...
Coordinating with the US is what has caused the war to drag out for over a year. Peace has to be made at some point, whether we like it or not.
But not today. And not necessarily this month, or even this year. Depends upon Russia. They need to withdraw to at least the pre-invasion borders before talks can begin.
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whiterock
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 7:18a, 5/10/23
Redbrickbear said:
whiterock said:
Redbrickbear said:
whiterock said:
Redbrickbear said:
whiterock said:
Redbrickbear said:
cowboycwr said:
Doc Holliday said:
Remember all the partying in Europe during WW2? Yeah me neither.

Then you should read some more about cities in WW2.

Plenty of them still had their nightclubs, bars, etc. open at times throughout the war. They would close at times, like in London during the Blitz or Paris as the Allies advanced but then would reopen again.

Paris had all their theaters, music halls, and nightclubs open during most of the German occupation.

Now granted a nightclub scene from WW2 would look a lot different than one from today....
1. The UK was not invaded during WW2 so of course bars and clubs stayed open there. And I am sure they also did in places like Paris when under occupation by the German army...no active fighting there between June 1940 - June of 1944

2. But I am not aware of clubs and bars staying open when the country was in an active war situation. Where bars and clubs open on the Eastern front in Poland or Belarus as Nazi and Soviet armies wage war across the landscape killed people in the millions?

We have been sold that this war is an existential crisis for Ukraine (and the whole of the Western World)...Ukraine will not even let its military age men escape the country...its throwing all of them into the army. And yet then we find out that the club scene in Kyiv is still popping off?

Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian men are dying in Donbas and then we find out the women are back in Kyiv parting?

Bad optics at the very least.

They didn't quit having proms in high school or dances in colleges during WWII. You strive to retain such normalcy as one can, particularly the last pieces of youth before it marches off to be scarred or worse by war.

Where....the USA home front? In Britain? Occupied Norway? Sure of course

You are telling me they were having proms and school dances in Belarus and Ukraine in 1943 in the middle of the war on the Eastern Front? B.S.

Again, the Western corporate-government-media complex keeps telling us this is a existential war. The most serious "threat to the Western World since WWII"...a conflict our leaders are spending billions on and risking a nuclear war breaking out over...and yet then we find out that outside of Donbas the women of Ukraine are hitting the clubs?

Bad bad optics
Quite a bit of hyperbole there

No, you don't have a dance down in the trenches, or even within range of artillery. But yes, you do try to carve out some normalcy where you can. Even on a military base, during WWII, one could find a dance from time to time. Kyiv is 430mi from Bakhmut. As has been the case in every war where the fighting was that far from the capital, one could find a drink in a bar served by a alluringly clad women you could ask do dance to the live music being played.

one could make a case that such things are even more treasured during war, given that those most likely to engage in the former are also the ones most likely to die in the latter.
You can make excuses all you want...or you could just acknowledge that while we are being fed this line about "existential crisis for Ukraine and the World"..."greatest threat to democracy since WWII"....the kleptocrats in Kyiv would not even shut down the club scene.

no, I just told you why the government in Kyiv will work very hard to keep the club scene open...to maintain morale.

Ok, Maintaining the morale of the Ukrainian soldiers that will never get a chance to go to the clubs....got it.
You're digging into a position completely disconnected from reality. They didn't close the pubs in London or Paris during WWII. They worked hard to keep them open, for everyone. For the civilian population. For the young men about to enter service. For the soldiers about to leave for the front. For the soldiers back home from the front. etc...... No one complained like you are here, because everyone understood how important it is during war to have a place to go forget about the war for an hour or three, most especially for the young people will have to fight and die in the war.
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Sam Lowry
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In reply to whiterock • 7:28a, 5/10/23
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
RMF5630 said:
Sam Lowry said:
RMF5630 said:
Redbrickbear said:
This cannot happen that way. If it looks like that is where Ukraine is moving, Zelinsky owes it to the US to ensure it is a joint US/China Peace Negotiation. This would fit as part of Xi's 100 year plan and explain the embrace of Russia. To give China a diplomatic reasonable role, while Biden looks like a mad dog if he doesn't work a way in to the process.
That's what happens when we insist on prolonging the war. China gets to be the adult in the room. Lots of us saw it coming a mile away.


No. It is when the Admin doesn't communicate well. Zelinsky needs to coordinate with the White House if the time comes Ukraine to wants peace. US has supported him, he needs to remember that. Biden needs to not let Xi call the shots, we do.

Your response is ridiculous, surrender early and against Ukraine's wishes? That would have shown them! If you were in charge, we would be back to 1980 borders, so as not to upset Putin. Just give him what he wants or worse just ignore his invasions. It's for the best...
Coordinating with the US is what has caused the war to drag out for over a year. Peace has to be made at some point, whether we like it or not.
But not today. And not necessarily this month, or even this year. Depends upon Russia. They need to withdraw to at least the pre-invasion borders before talks can begin.
Speaking of positions completely disconnected from reality…
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whiterock
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 7:55a, 5/10/23
Redbrickbear said:
This is a very good video. I watch the guy's stuff from time to time. Thorough and mainstream takes on geopolitics, a great way to learn about dynamics in obscure corners of the globe, or brush up on stuff that has escaped the orbits of the mind.

One thing that did not get emphasized enough from that video........Russia's alliance with Iran is a sign of weakness, not strength. Two very weak sisters, those two. Also natural enemies. The two countries have geography that inevitably creates antagonistic relations. The Caucasus in particular;...... It is a constrained but enduring shatterzone which has for thousands of years been a cauldron of conflict between the Great Powers of the ages, interminable proxy wars punctuated by direct conflict, lines of control and influence waxing and waning back and forth and back and forth for two thousand years..... Romans/Byzantines, Gokturks/Khazars, Parthanids/Sassanids, Umayyids/Ottomans, with punctuated incursions by Huns & Golden Hordes, etc.... Russia was actually a late riser in all that turmoil, and for the last 100 years been the dominant power. Not so anymore. Today, Turkey is the most powerful player, but limited in what it can do by Nato alliance.* That allows Iran, by far the weakest of the three players, to osmose into the void. That will not last long. Eventually, Russia and Iran will be lobbing arty rounds at one another between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Armenians are surrounded by Turks and Persians and look to Moscow as their only lifeline. Right now, the Azeris are ascendant and assertive, with Turkish support. Moscow, bogged down in Ukraine, is unable to push back. But the moment Ukraine quiets down.....Moscow will start looking to reassert its dominance in the Caucasus. Russia must control those mountains, or its soft underbelly is exposed.

The Central Asian stans are the other great shatterzone between three powers: China, Russia, Iran. They are large & stable enough (and the three powers by large measure weak enough) that I don't expect conflict imminently, though....

Just speaking about the realities dictated by geography, there are simply too many powers and not enough depth of shatterzone (as we see in Central Asia) for relations between Iran & Russia (or Saudi or Turkey or Egypt) to ever find a long-term stability. For that reason, Iran should one day again be a US ally. But regime change must occur for that to happen and we have not done nearly a good enough job of destabilizing the regime the last two times the opportunity arose to do so.

The great game is played every day, and it will be so throughout the lives of our grandchildrens' granchildren and beyond. If we do not play it to shape events to comport with our needs, others will shape it to comport to their needs and our options will be constrained. Right now, we need to constrain Russian options in Ukraine, lest they move their armies 900mi westward and constrain our options.

*Nato alliance ironically places severe disincentive for member states to engage in expeditionary warfare on its borders, even on provisions of arms/ammo to others. Were it not for Nato, Poland, Romania, likely Slovakia to some degree, and possibly even Sweden would be directly involved in the current war in Ukraine. Nato has also been a constraint on the speed and level of weapons shipments by member states to Ukraine. No one state can act on its clear immediate interests for fear of exposing itself to risks which the rest of the alliance will not share. Russia of course knows this, that the rules of the Alliance actually complicate and slow down Nato response to events beyond its borders, creating at a window of opportunity for Russia to make quick moves. Only it didn't work out that way in Ukraine, and now Russia is bogged down in a proxy war where it's best case outcome (status quo today) would be a victory only in the Liddell-Hart calculus of finishing marginally ahead of where one started, and even then achieved at frightfully disproportionate expenditure of manpower and munitions.
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Redbrickbear
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12:17a, 5/11/23
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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12:38a, 5/11/23
The Biden family is the JUICE in this transaction. If Russia wins, the Biden Family wins. If Ukraine wins, the Biden Family wins!!!

The American taxpayers are Sheeple and losers. They are dumber than a box of rocks.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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trey3216
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1:41p, 5/11/23
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
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whiterock
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7:40a, 5/12/23
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


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Sam Lowry
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In reply to whiterock • 7:58a, 5/12/23
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
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whiterock
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 8:26a, 5/12/23
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
I said several weeks back we'll know more in mid-June. Looks like that's about the way it's playing out.
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to whiterock • 9:36a, 5/12/23
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


That that ISW handle is cool to follow on twitter.


And yes I think we all know the incompetence of the Russian military at this point.

I guess we all should guessed that nothing has fundamentally changed since it took them 2 wars and almost a decade to defeat the Chechen secessionist/Islamist movement.

Took them 160,000 deaths (military and civilian in both wars combined) to subdue a land the size of New Jersey with only 1.5 million residents.

Even then...they basically had to turn the area over to the control of a Russian aligned Chechen warlord (Ramzan Kadyrov) to keep the peace and keep a lid on the insurgency. Its basically an autonomous area now under the control of Kadyrov family and a pseudo-islamist state
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trey3216
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 10:14a, 5/12/23
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
Lol. It's just now getting underway, clown.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
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Sam Lowry
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In reply to trey3216 • 10:28a, 5/12/23
trey3216 said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
Lol. It's just now getting underway, clown.
With less than 50K troops against Russia's 300K. Wonder what will happen.
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trey3216
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 10:29a, 5/12/23
Sam Lowry said:
trey3216 said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
Lol. It's just now getting underway, clown.
With less than 50K troops against Russia's 300K. Wonder what will happen.
Dude, you're so wrong and out over your skis. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 11:02a, 5/12/23
Sam Lowry said:
trey3216 said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
Lol. It's just now getting underway, clown.
With less than 50K troops against Russia's 300K. Wonder what will happen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-10/ukraine-war-support-shouldn-t-be-tied-to-spring-offensive-against-russia

[The Danger in Hyping Ukraine's Spring Offensive:

It's troubling to imply that Western support for Kyiv might somehow be tied to the success of a counterattack against the Russians.]

The fact that internationalist Bloomberg is down playing the coming offensive is probably not a good sign.


https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/biden-ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-defense-00093384

Ole Politico as well preparing the Regime supporters in the Acela corridor for disappointment.

[Biden's team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive:

Behind closed doors, the administration worries about what Ukraine can accomplish.]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/23/truce-stalemate-ukraine-spring-offensive-volodymyr-zelenskiy

The Guardian also does not seem to be optimistic and is even floating the previously treasonous idea that maybe there should be some peace talks and maybe letting Russia keep some land it has taken.
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Redbrickbear
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11:24a, 5/12/23
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whiterock
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 12:23p, 5/12/23
Redbrickbear said:
good stuff there.

Seems like there's a D-Day scenario going on, watching the weather. Cool weather in May is not speeding up dryout of terrain, and last two weeks of May has constant rain forecasts. Might be 10 June or so before offensive launches.

Or so the Ukrainians would want us to believe. They've been very good at OPSEC, which facilitates effective disinformation. But UKR does need their offensive to be rapid, mobile, slashing, which needs good weather.

Seems like the main thrust has to be the Crimean approaches, and there will be 2 or 3 axes of advance, only one of which is the primary objective. The other 1 or 2 will be diversionary. The probing attacks for bridgeheads at Kherson will force Russia to respond, whether they're diversionary or not. UKR General Staff can watch the Russian redeployments and alter plans as needed. It's just seems so obvious that the UKR main line of advance is from Zaporizhizha to Melitopol. Control of Melitopol severs lateral lines of Russian advance and threatens Crimean approaches. That isolates the Russian Kherson front to depend only on Crimea for supply and threatens their line of retreat, forcing Russian command to either withdraw or risk encirclement of the army. But if that is all so obvious, what has Russia done to defend against it? Theoretically, they should be able to make UKR progress prohibitively expensive. But can Russia do anything competently? Have they thrown too much at Bakhmut and left themselves depleted where it matters most?

We will know by the end of June, if not sooner.
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Sam Lowry
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 1:44p, 5/12/23
Redbrickbear said:
Sam Lowry said:
trey3216 said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
Lol. It's just now getting underway, clown.
With less than 50K troops against Russia's 300K. Wonder what will happen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-10/ukraine-war-support-shouldn-t-be-tied-to-spring-offensive-against-russia

[The Danger in Hyping Ukraine's Spring Offensive:

It's troubling to imply that Western support for Kyiv might somehow be tied to the success of a counterattack against the Russians.]

The fact that internationalist Bloomberg is down playing the coming offensive is probably not a good sign.


https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/biden-ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-defense-00093384

Ole Politico as well preparing the Regime supporters in the Acela corridor for disappointment.

[Biden's team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive:

Behind closed doors, the administration worries about what Ukraine can accomplish.]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/23/truce-stalemate-ukraine-spring-offensive-volodymyr-zelenskiy

The Guardian also does not seem to be optimistic and is even floating the previously treasonous idea that maybe there should be some peace talks and maybe letting Russia keep some land it has taken.
And it's not just the US and the UK. Ukraine's own defense minister is publicly trying to downplay expectations.
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In reply to whiterock • 1:48p, 5/12/23
whiterock said:
Redbrickbear said:
good stuff there.

Seems like there's a D-Day scenario going on, watching the weather. Cool weather in May is not speeding up dryout of terrain, and last two weeks of May has constant rain forecasts. Might be 10 June or so before offensive launches.

Or so the Ukrainians would want us to believe. They've been very good at OPSEC, which facilitates effective disinformation. But UKR does need their offensive to be rapid, mobile, slashing, which needs good weather.

Seems like the main thrust has to be the Crimean approaches, and there will be 2 or 3 axes of advance, only one of which is the primary objective. The other 1 or 2 will be diversionary. The probing attacks for bridgeheads at Kherson will force Russia to respond, whether they're diversionary or not. UKR General Staff can watch the Russian redeployments and alter plans as needed. It's just seems so obvious that the UKR main line of advance is from Zaporizhizha to Melitopol. Control of Melitopol severs lateral lines of Russian advance and threatens Crimean approaches. That isolates the Russian Kherson front to depend only on Crimea for supply and threatens their line of retreat, forcing Russian command to either withdraw or risk encirclement of the army. But if that is all so obvious, what has Russia done to defend against it? Theoretically, they should be able to make UKR progress prohibitively expensive. But can Russia do anything competently? Have they thrown too much at Bakhmut and left themselves depleted where it matters most?

We will know by the end of June, if not sooner.
They've thrown very little of their own at Bakhmut, and by this point it's clear that even the Wagner Group's casualties aren't what they were cracked up to be. Otherwise the WG would have ceased to exist months ago.
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trey3216
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 1:50p, 5/12/23
Sam Lowry said:
Redbrickbear said:
Sam Lowry said:
trey3216 said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
Lol. It's just now getting underway, clown.
With less than 50K troops against Russia's 300K. Wonder what will happen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-10/ukraine-war-support-shouldn-t-be-tied-to-spring-offensive-against-russia

[The Danger in Hyping Ukraine's Spring Offensive:

It's troubling to imply that Western support for Kyiv might somehow be tied to the success of a counterattack against the Russians.]

The fact that internationalist Bloomberg is down playing the coming offensive is probably not a good sign.


https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/biden-ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-defense-00093384

Ole Politico as well preparing the Regime supporters in the Acela corridor for disappointment.

[Biden's team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive:

Behind closed doors, the administration worries about what Ukraine can accomplish.]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/23/truce-stalemate-ukraine-spring-offensive-volodymyr-zelenskiy

The Guardian also does not seem to be optimistic and is even floating the previously treasonous idea that maybe there should be some peace talks and maybe letting Russia keep some land it has taken.
And it's not just the US and the UK. Ukraine's own defense minister is publicly trying to downplay expectations.
A lot of psyops going on. Russia is starting to see ghosts.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
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Sam Lowry
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In reply to trey3216 • 1:58p, 5/12/23
trey3216 said:
Sam Lowry said:
Redbrickbear said:
Sam Lowry said:
trey3216 said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
Lol. It's just now getting underway, clown.
With less than 50K troops against Russia's 300K. Wonder what will happen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-10/ukraine-war-support-shouldn-t-be-tied-to-spring-offensive-against-russia

[The Danger in Hyping Ukraine's Spring Offensive:

It's troubling to imply that Western support for Kyiv might somehow be tied to the success of a counterattack against the Russians.]

The fact that internationalist Bloomberg is down playing the coming offensive is probably not a good sign.


https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/biden-ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-defense-00093384

Ole Politico as well preparing the Regime supporters in the Acela corridor for disappointment.

[Biden's team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive:

Behind closed doors, the administration worries about what Ukraine can accomplish.]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/23/truce-stalemate-ukraine-spring-offensive-volodymyr-zelenskiy

The Guardian also does not seem to be optimistic and is even floating the previously treasonous idea that maybe there should be some peace talks and maybe letting Russia keep some land it has taken.
And it's not just the US and the UK. Ukraine's own defense minister is publicly trying to downplay expectations.
A lot of psyops going on. Russia is starting to see ghosts.
Whatever makes you feel better.
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trey3216
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 2:32p, 5/12/23
Sam Lowry said:
trey3216 said:
Sam Lowry said:
Redbrickbear said:
Sam Lowry said:
trey3216 said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Interesting Twitter account.

this graphic illustrates the epic Russian failure in their big winter offensive. Mobilizing 300k troops, bringing in the vaunted Wagner Group, etc...... and this is all they have to show for it. The mighty Russian Army, big push, and they STILL have not captured the first town they came to:


Or the epic failure of Ukraine's big spring offensive...don't blink or you may miss it.
Lol. It's just now getting underway, clown.
With less than 50K troops against Russia's 300K. Wonder what will happen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-10/ukraine-war-support-shouldn-t-be-tied-to-spring-offensive-against-russia

[The Danger in Hyping Ukraine's Spring Offensive:

It's troubling to imply that Western support for Kyiv might somehow be tied to the success of a counterattack against the Russians.]

The fact that internationalist Bloomberg is down playing the coming offensive is probably not a good sign.


https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/biden-ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-defense-00093384

Ole Politico as well preparing the Regime supporters in the Acela corridor for disappointment.

[Biden's team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive:

Behind closed doors, the administration worries about what Ukraine can accomplish.]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/23/truce-stalemate-ukraine-spring-offensive-volodymyr-zelenskiy

The Guardian also does not seem to be optimistic and is even floating the previously treasonous idea that maybe there should be some peace talks and maybe letting Russia keep some land it has taken.
And it's not just the US and the UK. Ukraine's own defense minister is publicly trying to downplay expectations.
A lot of psyops going on. Russia is starting to see ghosts.
Whatever makes you feel better.









Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
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whiterock
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4:19a, 5/13/23
UKR troop concentrations in Beryslav would be consistent with an attack across the bridge at the Dam of the Kakhovka Reservoir. I posted earlier a report that UKR had actually achieved a bridgehead south of the Dnieper. Such a position would allow UKR to threaten the M14 and M17 highways, which would sever Russian lines of commo between Kherson and Crimea and threaten with encirclement all Russian units along the Kherson front.

That would be an enormous accomplishment which would allow UKR to push troops across the Dnieper in force and march directly on the Crimean approaches, which in turn isolates Russian units along the Zaporizhizha front from their primary lines of commo. Yes, Russian units at Zapo could communicate and retreat eastward, along the Azov coast, but that is a long lateral axis nearly parallel to the front lines which will be within range of Himars with even nominal UKR advances toward Melitupol. For that reason, pushing to expand the bridgehead at the Kakhovka Dam would also would be a great diversionary attack as such threatens to destabilize Russian deployments in the entire Western Theater. And, of course, if it is THE attack, then the race for who gets to Krasnoperekopsk first is on. If Ukraine wins that race, a significant portion of the Russian Expeditionary force will become prisoners of war and everyone will start wondering how strongly has Russia garrisoned the Crimea itself.

Could the dogged UKR defense of Bakhmut been a diversion all along, to suck Russian resources and attention eastward?

Will take some time for fog of battle to clear.

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11:58a, 5/13/23
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In reply to trey3216 • 6:38p, 5/16/23
trey3216 said:


Be careful around windows on high floors.
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In reply to Wrecks Quan Dough • 4:48a, 5/17/23
He Hate Me said:
trey3216 said:


Be careful around windows on high floors.
Might be a bridge too far to think these erratic comments from Prigozhin reflect opposition to Putin. More likely, he's attacking Russian MOD and field commenders, rather than Putin.

The Russian war effor is under a lot of stress. Things are going badly. Scapegoats will be found. Prigozhin wants to make sure HE isn't one of them.
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