Bear8084 said:
whiterock said:
Doc Holliday said:
whiterock said:
Doc Holliday said:
trey3216 said:
Doc Holliday said:
There's been drone strikes in Moscow, the capitol of Russia has been hit by Ukraine,
I expect a response from Russia within the next 72 hours. I suspect it has something to do with the movement of nuclear platforms (mobile nuclear missiles into Belarus).
So the brinksmanship continues because the western world is incapable of conducting diplomacy. Ukrainian leadership is not taking this seriously at this point by commanding drone strikes or potentially through dissident forces in Russia within the capitol itself.
Its a dangerous game opening yourself up to Russia responding with nukes. I don't think that happens, but what if Russia comes out tomorrow stating "Dear Russian people, we've been attacked on our domestic soil by Ukrainian terrorists...we'll we're going to take care of that" and then they fire a nuke at Kiev? How does the west respond? Russia is already under sanctions, China won't abandon them, there's no military response we can launch because the west isn't going to drop nukes on Russia.
A nuclear threat realizes with impunity its capable of targeting third party nations without any meaningful retaliation because it's already been pariahed to the point where there's nothing further any nation can do. Are we gonna stop Russian planes from flying out of Russian territory by firing sorties? If you fire on them and they fire back, that's direct war. Are you gonna stop their ships? Well that's great for the black sea because the Bosphorus is controlled by Turkey which is under the leadership of someone who talks well of both Putin and the western world.
We've gotten rid of mutually assured destruction. Either a war breaks out directly, or one side feels it can act with impunity with nuclear weapons and war doesn't immediately break out so they use them MORE.
I don't like the fact that Ukraine has been invaded and I feel sorry for them, but we as non Ukrainians need to approach this from a measured manner and conduct diplomacy.
This situation is what happens when the entire globe is run by failed leaders across the board.
So allowing Russia the ability to act with impunity because they have nukes is the answer? It's a dangerous game when you invade another nation. Perhaps they should take their ball and go home
Without diplomacy we run the risk of them behaving without impunity. If they use nukes and we counter attack in response, it's WW3.
Are you in favor of direct war against Russia instead of a proxy war?
We are engaging in diplomacy. And also diplomacy by other means.
Russia is not going to nuke Ukraine for bombing Moscow, precisely because they know we will counter.
The hysteria over nuclear war here is quite a bit overblown.
Why is Russia moving nuclear weapons into Belarus?
It's called diplomacy. Gunboat diplomacy, to be exact.
Also gives them a reason to intervene if/when the govt falls...."to rescue sensitive materials from chaos....."
And was already planned in 2020.
Poland has rattled sabers recently about supporting their own "little green men" to foster instability in Belarus. Lukashenko regime is not popular and he is not healthy. borderline house of cards situation - late phase weak regime running on momentum of common man being afraid to take the first step, but first brick or two that falls could fill the streets with protestors.
So if there is a coup, and Lukashenko regime falls, to be replaced by a pro-western faction, or even an avowed "neutral" junta......does Nato enter to offer aid? (no. Russia could also be expected to move quickly to topple a non-pliable regime and replace it with another puppet, so risk of direct conflict too high. The emplacement of tac-nukes would actually be a warning sign for us NOT to get involved.) But do we foment civil unrest, to tie Russia down in a nasty guerilla war while it is simultaneously overextended in Ukraine? Indeed we should. And I suspect the plans & preps have been long and well laid.
Such could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
Dare we ask how Ukraine would react to such? (wink). They would not have quite the same "impediments" that a Nato nation would have, now, would they.
Russia is under a lot of stress right now. What a pity it would be for things to get even more "complicated." I doubt Putin does much praying, but if he does, Lukashenko's well-being would be pretty high on the list. Misfortune in Minsk this year would be exceedingly bad timing for Russia.
(odds would seem favor Russia to consolidate Belarus, though. Unless we get some Ukrainian-esque type patriotism. I just don't know enough to assess whether that's in the cards. but by all means make Russia pay dearly.......)