Russia mobilizes

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Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

S said:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I am a power geopolitical type but disagree with the Kissinger/Mearsheimer argument on Nato's post-CW expansion into former WP nations. Yes, Russia is a great power, but no great power is entitled to a "sphere." They have to earn it one way or the other. Lithuania used to be a great power. Poland used to be a great power. Sweden, Austria/Hungary, etc.... Times change.

Russia fails over and over to keep up with the west. There is a reason for that. We should not coddle their incompetence and paleo-thinking by continually treating them as an equal. They want to be great, they need something more than nuclear weapons. An older NSA operative I served with in one capacity or another for most of my time abroad was a Russian specialist. He made a quote back during the Cold War that keeps getting proven true over and over again: "Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons."

Russia's like the guy who's muscle-bound from the waist up but never does a leg day.
I don't understand this kind of thinking, for several reasons. It implies that what Russia is doing would be fine if they just destroyed Ukraine more efficiently, which means all the moral and legal arguments against the invasion are irrelevant. It treats spheres of influence as a status symbol rather than a means to stability. But it's stability that is in our interest; opposing Russia just to put them in their place is petty and pointless. Russia bore the heaviest burden against Germany in WWII and was a party to the division of Europe following the war. This greatly weighs in favor of their inclusion in the club, if that's how you want to think of it. More important, it has implications for Russian security that can't be ignored following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Finally, Russia is one of the few European regimes or cultures that are now resisting wokeness and neo-Marxism.
Doesn't mean that at all. It's a corollary of the old adage: "...power cannot be given; it must be taken..." Affording Russia a sphere of influence it cannot support is what makes no sense....it is exactly what you go on to say - "...a status symbol..." which is not a means to stability at all. UKRAINE is already Russia's equal in many respects. Why not Ukraine as the stable influence in Eurasia? Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons which does not deserve the degree of deference we have afforded to it. It cannot even handle the Donbas, fer crissakes. Time for Russia to come to terms with its situation and start making hard decisions on internal reforms. History of the last 500 years shows over and over that Russia has been poked in the nose and realized it is "behind the times." Time for them to grow up, or suffer the consequences of their backwardness.
This is circular reasoning. We intervene because they can't support their sphere of influence, but they could support it just fine if we didn't intervene.

We did not start our aid package until AFTER the Ukes stopped the initial Russian invasion. In other words, we were prepared to let Russia have it if they could take it. They couldn't. So here we are.

Nations in the shatterzone will calculate on when/if/how much to step outside traditional influence to see outside aid. And that outside aid will always calculate odds….assess risk…can the traditional power actually hold onto the area?
Russia can't.
They're going to lose.
This is good.
Makes no sense at all to help them consolidate anything when they are trying to disrupt us all over the world. A weak despotic power make be a useful if strange bedfellows in war against a common enemy, but it is no good partner in peace.


So it's not that they can't support their sphere of influence, it's that it "makes no sense" to let them. What are they doing to disrupt us all over the world?
a very long list of things you well know, to include supporting Iran, NK, allying with China, etc.... That's what the weak have to do - disrupt the existing order.

It indeed makes no sense to prop up an ostensibly great power which really isn't just to....what? To what end? By your logic, we should be helping Russia roll over Ukraine, just so...what? Satisfy romantic Russian visions of the way things should be? I mean, how can you look at what Russia did in Ukraine and make the case they are able to "control their sphere of influence?"

It is your thinking with makes no sense. A better case can be made for helping Ukraine become the dominant power in Eurasia.

Then if I understand you, Russia is only entitled to a sphere of influence if they can support it and if they don't act outside of it, even by maintaining informal "alliances" like the one with China.

How does that principle apply to us? If we choose to act in a distant region where Russia has an interest, like Syria for example, do we forfeit our right to security against threats near our own borders?
When was the last time we invaded Mexico or Canada?? 1850's? Even Cuba, we could have invaded several different times but didn't. You think Russia shows that restraint? Using your logic in Ukraine, it is all right for us to invade Mexico and create a buffer so we feel more comfortable.

The times we have gone into other Nations militarily Russia, China too for that matter, didn't think twice supporting our opponents. (See N Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and others)
We invaded Mexico multiple times...including occupying their largest port at Veracruz in 1914

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Veracruz

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/the-tampico-affair-how-mexico-saw-the-us-1914-invasion/

Not to mention that one of the main reasons there is a Dominion of Canada today is the formerly independent provinces in upper and lower canada were terrified watching what the USA did to the Mexico in the 1840s and to its own Southern break away states in the 1860s. "The original Fathers of Confederation are those delegates who attended the conferences held at Charlottetown and Quebec in 1864 or in London, United Kingdom, in 1866, leading to Confederation". Not surprising that Canada joined together right as the war to the South of them was going on. For over 100 years the largest military concentration of British imperial troops outside of India (the jewel of the Empire) was in Canada...to guard against the military power of the United States.

[The calm didn't last long. In 1861, during the Civil War, the U.S. Navy arrested two Confederate diplomats traveling to Britain which had remained neutral on a British ship, the Trent. Both sides bristled, the governor general of Canada ordered troops to the border and the British accused the U.S. secretary of state of masterminding the whole affair as an excuse to invade Canadian territory. (Canadians had watched that "annexation" of Texas pretty closely.) Eventually, Lincoln decided that one war was enough for the moment and released the Confederate envoys-narrowly averting a military clash.]

And of course we not only were involve in Cuban internal politics since its independence from Spain (a war of independence we fought for them) but we staged in Bay of Pig invasion to help over throw the communist government of Cuba in 1961

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion

We have not hesitated in project power in our local sphere of influence in North and South America when it was felt there was a need.
Speechless that you could make an equivalency here.
Did we ever invade Mexico to stay?
Did we annex Veracruz?

Are you not aware of the circumstances that tipped us into participation in WWI?
Ever heard of the Zimmerman telegram?
Doesn't that little tidbit put Veracruz into a different light?



False equivalence?

FLBear asked when was the last time we invaded mexico, canada, or cuba.

I gave him the relevant dates.

I made no argument or statement as to the justification or wisdom of those invasions/interventions.
The proper answer is, we've never invaded them with the intention of including them into our union.

Well we certainly invaded parts of Mexico & Canada with the intention of placing them in our union (or large parts of them in our union)...some times successfully and some times not so successfully.

https://www.history.com/news/how-u-s-forces-failed-to-conquer-canada-200-years-ago

In both the revolutionary war and the war of 1812 the U.S. tried to conquer Canada and bring it into the Federal Union.

Obviously we know that Mexico was forced the cede half its territory to the United States.... "55 percent of its territory, including the present-day states California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, and parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming"

So while there has been not real invasion with the intent to annex these areas for over 130 years....we can't pretend there were never any instances where this happened.
You badly misapply history to fit the "American Imperialist" narrative.

WHY was Mexico forced to cede territory to us?
They lost a war with us.
WHY did that war happen?
Mexico tried to enforce territorial claims NORTH of the Rio Grande.
HOW did Mexico try to enforce those claims?
They attacked a US military unit in sovereign US Territory.

We actually offered to PAY them for the disputed territory (and more).
They refused.
Then they attacked.
Then we won.
So, WE are the oppressors?
Did we send in little green men?
Did we just invade and take it all (like Russia did in Ukraine?)

No.
Of course not.
Congress approved a Declaration of War after a Mexican attack on US military units on US soil.

Again,

You have to place words in my mouth in order to have an argument.

I never said the USA was an "imperialist" power toward Canada or Mexico.

The question was asked when the USA invaded Canada or Mexico. And if it was ever contemplated to have all or parts of these nations join the Federal Union.

I gave the relevant dates and said yes....some parts of Mexico were brought in to the USA as States. And that there was in fact discussion all through the 1800s about Canada possibly joining the USA.


So instead of just accepting the true of these statements you run some defense of a position I never took...."muh Mexico lost land because it lost a war with the USA!" Uh I never said or implied anything different.

p.s.

If you want me to take a position on these things.... I personally think Polk was betrayed by his negotiator in Mexico. We almost got all of modern Northern Mexico (Baja California, Baja California Sur...maybe all or parts of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Len, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas) but instead he undermined the negotiations and settled for far far less.

[Trist's negotiation was controversial among expansionist Democrats since he had ignored Polk's instructions and settled on a smaller cession of Mexican territory than many expansionists wanted and felt he could have obtained. A part of this instruction was to specifically include Baja California. However, as part of the negotiations, Trist drew the line directly west from Yuma to Tijuana/San Diego instead of from Yuma south to the Gulf of California, which left all of Baja California a part of Mexico, and Polk was furious. In the end, Polk reluctantly approved the treaty since he wanted to have it signed, sealed, and delivered to Congress during his presidency. Trist later commented on the treaty:
Quote:

"My feeling of shame as an American was far stronger than the Mexicans' could be
Upon return to Washington, Trist was immediately fired for his insubordination, and his expenses since the time of the recall order were not paid. After his dismissal, Trist moved to West Chester, Pennsylvania, and then to Philadelphia, where he worked as a railroad clerk and paymaster. Trist finally recovered his expenses in 1871, at the urging of Senator Charles Sumner

Trist supported Republican Abraham Lincoln for U.S. president in 1860]

Trist decided to let is own personal views be placed above the will of the American people and the elected President's own specific instructions.

I mean how many times have we seen that in modern times were career bureaucrat decide they know what is best.

So instead of the USA getting most of Northern Mexico (basically uninhabited/low population at the time) we got far less than what we could have.
Those career bureaucrats spend their lives working on areas and develop expertise that the majority of elected officials need.

Ever talk to an elected official? They are expected to vote on a myriad of things without any knowledge about them. Even their ideas, which may be great, they have no idea how to actually get it done. That is what the bureaucracy you make fun of excels at doing. Try getting something accomplished without the supporting structure, you end up Trump. Just yelling.

So they never make mistakes or fail to carry out the lawful orders and instructions of their constitutionally elected superiors?

Man you love and trust the Federal government and its ever growing army of bureaucratic workers almost as much as Trey and Whiterock

But I do love you swinging in to defend helpless Nick Trist (and the honor of Federal bureaucrats everywhere) he obviously knew better than the President of the United States.

[the British commissioner Dr. Richard Robert Madden wrote U.S. abolitionists about Trist's misuse of his post to promote slavery and earn fees from the fraudulent document schemes. A pamphlet detailing Madden's charges was published shortly before the beginning of the sensational Amistad affair, when Africans sold into slavery in Cuba managed to seize control of the schooner in which they were being transported from Havana to provincial plantations. Madden travelled to the United States, where he gave expert testimony in the trial of the Amistad Africans, explaining how false documents were used to make it appear the Africans were Cuban-born slaves.

This exposure of the activities of the U.S. Consul General, coupled with the complaints of ship captains, caused a Congressional investigation and eventual recall of Trist in 1840.]

[President Polk was unhappy with his envoy's conduct which prompted him to order Trist to return to the United States. General Winfield Scott was also unhappy with Trist's presence in Mexico...
However, the wily diplomat ignored the instructions to leave Mexico. He wrote a 65-page letter back to Washington, D.C. explaining his reasons for staying in Mexico]


Trust, no just the millions of thankless professionals that get you water, roads, air travel, products from overseas, pipe away your **** (literally), deal with waste, try to protect the food supply, law enforcement, run prisons, try to manage the border etc...

You seem to think this stuff just happens.


Yes yes

Instead of dealing with the specifics of this off the reservation diplomat you have decided to use this thread to mount your own pulpit about the virtues of American bureaucrats.

Yes many do fine work. One uncle of mine worked in Texas government for 40 years.

Thank you Mr. White Knight
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

S said:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I am a power geopolitical type but disagree with the Kissinger/Mearsheimer argument on Nato's post-CW expansion into former WP nations. Yes, Russia is a great power, but no great power is entitled to a "sphere." They have to earn it one way or the other. Lithuania used to be a great power. Poland used to be a great power. Sweden, Austria/Hungary, etc.... Times change.

Russia fails over and over to keep up with the west. There is a reason for that. We should not coddle their incompetence and paleo-thinking by continually treating them as an equal. They want to be great, they need something more than nuclear weapons. An older NSA operative I served with in one capacity or another for most of my time abroad was a Russian specialist. He made a quote back during the Cold War that keeps getting proven true over and over again: "Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons."

Russia's like the guy who's muscle-bound from the waist up but never does a leg day.
I don't understand this kind of thinking, for several reasons. It implies that what Russia is doing would be fine if they just destroyed Ukraine more efficiently, which means all the moral and legal arguments against the invasion are irrelevant. It treats spheres of influence as a status symbol rather than a means to stability. But it's stability that is in our interest; opposing Russia just to put them in their place is petty and pointless. Russia bore the heaviest burden against Germany in WWII and was a party to the division of Europe following the war. This greatly weighs in favor of their inclusion in the club, if that's how you want to think of it. More important, it has implications for Russian security that can't be ignored following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Finally, Russia is one of the few European regimes or cultures that are now resisting wokeness and neo-Marxism.
Doesn't mean that at all. It's a corollary of the old adage: "...power cannot be given; it must be taken..." Affording Russia a sphere of influence it cannot support is what makes no sense....it is exactly what you go on to say - "...a status symbol..." which is not a means to stability at all. UKRAINE is already Russia's equal in many respects. Why not Ukraine as the stable influence in Eurasia? Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons which does not deserve the degree of deference we have afforded to it. It cannot even handle the Donbas, fer crissakes. Time for Russia to come to terms with its situation and start making hard decisions on internal reforms. History of the last 500 years shows over and over that Russia has been poked in the nose and realized it is "behind the times." Time for them to grow up, or suffer the consequences of their backwardness.
This is circular reasoning. We intervene because they can't support their sphere of influence, but they could support it just fine if we didn't intervene.

We did not start our aid package until AFTER the Ukes stopped the initial Russian invasion. In other words, we were prepared to let Russia have it if they could take it. They couldn't. So here we are.

Nations in the shatterzone will calculate on when/if/how much to step outside traditional influence to see outside aid. And that outside aid will always calculate odds….assess risk…can the traditional power actually hold onto the area?
Russia can't.
They're going to lose.
This is good.
Makes no sense at all to help them consolidate anything when they are trying to disrupt us all over the world. A weak despotic power make be a useful if strange bedfellows in war against a common enemy, but it is no good partner in peace.


So it's not that they can't support their sphere of influence, it's that it "makes no sense" to let them. What are they doing to disrupt us all over the world?
a very long list of things you well know, to include supporting Iran, NK, allying with China, etc.... That's what the weak have to do - disrupt the existing order.

It indeed makes no sense to prop up an ostensibly great power which really isn't just to....what? To what end? By your logic, we should be helping Russia roll over Ukraine, just so...what? Satisfy romantic Russian visions of the way things should be? I mean, how can you look at what Russia did in Ukraine and make the case they are able to "control their sphere of influence?"

It is your thinking with makes no sense. A better case can be made for helping Ukraine become the dominant power in Eurasia.

Then if I understand you, Russia is only entitled to a sphere of influence if they can support it and if they don't act outside of it, even by maintaining informal "alliances" like the one with China.

How does that principle apply to us? If we choose to act in a distant region where Russia has an interest, like Syria for example, do we forfeit our right to security against threats near our own borders?
When was the last time we invaded Mexico or Canada?? 1850's? Even Cuba, we could have invaded several different times but didn't. You think Russia shows that restraint? Using your logic in Ukraine, it is all right for us to invade Mexico and create a buffer so we feel more comfortable.

The times we have gone into other Nations militarily Russia, China too for that matter, didn't think twice supporting our opponents. (See N Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and others)
We invaded Mexico multiple times...including occupying their largest port at Veracruz in 1914

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Veracruz

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/the-tampico-affair-how-mexico-saw-the-us-1914-invasion/

Not to mention that one of the main reasons there is a Dominion of Canada today is the formerly independent provinces in upper and lower canada were terrified watching what the USA did to the Mexico in the 1840s and to its own Southern break away states in the 1860s. "The original Fathers of Confederation are those delegates who attended the conferences held at Charlottetown and Quebec in 1864 or in London, United Kingdom, in 1866, leading to Confederation". Not surprising that Canada joined together right as the war to the South of them was going on. For over 100 years the largest military concentration of British imperial troops outside of India (the jewel of the Empire) was in Canada...to guard against the military power of the United States.

[The calm didn't last long. In 1861, during the Civil War, the U.S. Navy arrested two Confederate diplomats traveling to Britain which had remained neutral on a British ship, the Trent. Both sides bristled, the governor general of Canada ordered troops to the border and the British accused the U.S. secretary of state of masterminding the whole affair as an excuse to invade Canadian territory. (Canadians had watched that "annexation" of Texas pretty closely.) Eventually, Lincoln decided that one war was enough for the moment and released the Confederate envoys-narrowly averting a military clash.]

And of course we not only were involve in Cuban internal politics since its independence from Spain (a war of independence we fought for them) but we staged in Bay of Pig invasion to help over throw the communist government of Cuba in 1961

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion

We have not hesitated in project power in our local sphere of influence in North and South America when it was felt there was a need.
Speechless that you could make an equivalency here.
Did we ever invade Mexico to stay?
Did we annex Veracruz?

Are you not aware of the circumstances that tipped us into participation in WWI?
Ever heard of the Zimmerman telegram?
Doesn't that little tidbit put Veracruz into a different light?



False equivalence?

FLBear asked when was the last time we invaded mexico, canada, or cuba.

I gave him the relevant dates.

I made no argument or statement as to the justification or wisdom of those invasions/interventions.
The proper answer is, we've never invaded them with the intention of including them into our union.

Well we certainly invaded parts of Mexico & Canada with the intention of placing them in our union (or large parts of them in our union)...some times successfully and some times not so successfully.

https://www.history.com/news/how-u-s-forces-failed-to-conquer-canada-200-years-ago

In both the revolutionary war and the war of 1812 the U.S. tried to conquer Canada and bring it into the Federal Union.

Obviously we know that Mexico was forced the cede half its territory to the United States.... "55 percent of its territory, including the present-day states California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, and parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming"

So while there has been not real invasion with the intent to annex these areas for over 130 years....we can't pretend there were never any instances where this happened.
You badly misapply history to fit the "American Imperialist" narrative.

WHY was Mexico forced to cede territory to us?
They lost a war with us.
WHY did that war happen?
Mexico tried to enforce territorial claims NORTH of the Rio Grande.
HOW did Mexico try to enforce those claims?
They attacked a US military unit in sovereign US Territory.

We actually offered to PAY them for the disputed territory (and more).
They refused.
Then they attacked.
Then we won.
So, WE are the oppressors?
Did we send in little green men?
Did we just invade and take it all (like Russia did in Ukraine?)

No.
Of course not.
Congress approved a Declaration of War after a Mexican attack on US military units on US soil.

Again,

You have to place words in my mouth in order to have an argument.

I never said the USA was an "imperialist" power toward Canada or Mexico.

The question was asked when the USA invaded Canada or Mexico. And if it was ever contemplated to have all or parts of these nations join the Federal Union.

I gave the relevant dates and said yes....some parts of Mexico were brought in to the USA as States. And that there was in fact discussion all through the 1800s about Canada possibly joining the USA.


So instead of just accepting the true of these statements you run some defense of a position I never took...."muh Mexico lost land because it lost a war with the USA!" Uh I never said or implied anything different.

p.s.

If you want me to take a position on these things.... I personally think Polk was betrayed by his negotiator in Mexico. We almost got all of modern Northern Mexico (Baja California, Baja California Sur...maybe all or parts of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Len, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas) but instead he undermined the negotiations and settled for far far less.

[Trist's negotiation was controversial among expansionist Democrats since he had ignored Polk's instructions and settled on a smaller cession of Mexican territory than many expansionists wanted and felt he could have obtained. A part of this instruction was to specifically include Baja California. However, as part of the negotiations, Trist drew the line directly west from Yuma to Tijuana/San Diego instead of from Yuma south to the Gulf of California, which left all of Baja California a part of Mexico, and Polk was furious. In the end, Polk reluctantly approved the treaty since he wanted to have it signed, sealed, and delivered to Congress during his presidency. Trist later commented on the treaty:
Quote:

"My feeling of shame as an American was far stronger than the Mexicans' could be
Upon return to Washington, Trist was immediately fired for his insubordination, and his expenses since the time of the recall order were not paid. After his dismissal, Trist moved to West Chester, Pennsylvania, and then to Philadelphia, where he worked as a railroad clerk and paymaster. Trist finally recovered his expenses in 1871, at the urging of Senator Charles Sumner

Trist supported Republican Abraham Lincoln for U.S. president in 1860]

Trist decided to let is own personal views be placed above the will of the American people and the elected President's own specific instructions.

I mean how many times have we seen that in modern times were career bureaucrat decide they know what is best.

So instead of the USA getting most of Northern Mexico (basically uninhabited/low population at the time) we got far less than what we could have.
Those career bureaucrats spend their lives working on areas and develop expertise that the majority of elected officials need.

Ever talk to an elected official? They are expected to vote on a myriad of things without any knowledge about them. Even their ideas, which may be great, they have no idea how to actually get it done. That is what the bureaucracy you make fun of excels at doing. Try getting something accomplished without the supporting structure, you end up Trump. Just yelling.

So they never make mistakes or fail to carry out the lawful orders and instructions of their constitutionally elected superiors?

Man you love and trust the Federal government and its ever growing army of bureaucratic workers almost as much as Trey and Whiterock

But I do love you swinging in to defend helpless Nick Trist (and the honor of Federal bureaucrats everywhere) he obviously knew better than the President of the United States.

[the British commissioner Dr. Richard Robert Madden wrote U.S. abolitionists about Trist's misuse of his post to promote slavery and earn fees from the fraudulent document schemes. A pamphlet detailing Madden's charges was published shortly before the beginning of the sensational Amistad affair, when Africans sold into slavery in Cuba managed to seize control of the schooner in which they were being transported from Havana to provincial plantations. Madden travelled to the United States, where he gave expert testimony in the trial of the Amistad Africans, explaining how false documents were used to make it appear the Africans were Cuban-born slaves.

This exposure of the activities of the U.S. Consul General, coupled with the complaints of ship captains, caused a Congressional investigation and eventual recall of Trist in 1840.]

[President Polk was unhappy with his envoy's conduct which prompted him to order Trist to return to the United States. General Winfield Scott was also unhappy with Trist's presence in Mexico...
However, the wily diplomat ignored the instructions to leave Mexico. He wrote a 65-page letter back to Washington, D.C. explaining his reasons for staying in Mexico]


Trust, no just the millions of thankless professionals that get you water, roads, air travel, products from overseas, pipe away your **** (literally), deal with waste, try to protect the food supply, law enforcement, run prisons, try to manage the border etc...

You seem to think this stuff just happens.


Yes yes

Instead of dealing with the specifics of this off the reservation diplomat you have decided to use this thread to mount your own pulpit about the virtues of American bureaucrats.

Yes many do fine work. One uncle of mine worked in Texas government for 40 years.

Thank you Mr. White Knight


When I do it I am a white knight? Have your posts are trying to be a white knight against any action the US takes!
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

S said:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I am a power geopolitical type but disagree with the Kissinger/Mearsheimer argument on Nato's post-CW expansion into former WP nations. Yes, Russia is a great power, but no great power is entitled to a "sphere." They have to earn it one way or the other. Lithuania used to be a great power. Poland used to be a great power. Sweden, Austria/Hungary, etc.... Times change.

Russia fails over and over to keep up with the west. There is a reason for that. We should not coddle their incompetence and paleo-thinking by continually treating them as an equal. They want to be great, they need something more than nuclear weapons. An older NSA operative I served with in one capacity or another for most of my time abroad was a Russian specialist. He made a quote back during the Cold War that keeps getting proven true over and over again: "Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons."

Russia's like the guy who's muscle-bound from the waist up but never does a leg day.
I don't understand this kind of thinking, for several reasons. It implies that what Russia is doing would be fine if they just destroyed Ukraine more efficiently, which means all the moral and legal arguments against the invasion are irrelevant. It treats spheres of influence as a status symbol rather than a means to stability. But it's stability that is in our interest; opposing Russia just to put them in their place is petty and pointless. Russia bore the heaviest burden against Germany in WWII and was a party to the division of Europe following the war. This greatly weighs in favor of their inclusion in the club, if that's how you want to think of it. More important, it has implications for Russian security that can't be ignored following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Finally, Russia is one of the few European regimes or cultures that are now resisting wokeness and neo-Marxism.
Doesn't mean that at all. It's a corollary of the old adage: "...power cannot be given; it must be taken..." Affording Russia a sphere of influence it cannot support is what makes no sense....it is exactly what you go on to say - "...a status symbol..." which is not a means to stability at all. UKRAINE is already Russia's equal in many respects. Why not Ukraine as the stable influence in Eurasia? Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons which does not deserve the degree of deference we have afforded to it. It cannot even handle the Donbas, fer crissakes. Time for Russia to come to terms with its situation and start making hard decisions on internal reforms. History of the last 500 years shows over and over that Russia has been poked in the nose and realized it is "behind the times." Time for them to grow up, or suffer the consequences of their backwardness.
This is circular reasoning. We intervene because they can't support their sphere of influence, but they could support it just fine if we didn't intervene.

We did not start our aid package until AFTER the Ukes stopped the initial Russian invasion. In other words, we were prepared to let Russia have it if they could take it. They couldn't. So here we are.

Nations in the shatterzone will calculate on when/if/how much to step outside traditional influence to see outside aid. And that outside aid will always calculate odds….assess risk…can the traditional power actually hold onto the area?
Russia can't.
They're going to lose.
This is good.
Makes no sense at all to help them consolidate anything when they are trying to disrupt us all over the world. A weak despotic power make be a useful if strange bedfellows in war against a common enemy, but it is no good partner in peace.


So it's not that they can't support their sphere of influence, it's that it "makes no sense" to let them. What are they doing to disrupt us all over the world?
a very long list of things you well know, to include supporting Iran, NK, allying with China, etc.... That's what the weak have to do - disrupt the existing order.

It indeed makes no sense to prop up an ostensibly great power which really isn't just to....what? To what end? By your logic, we should be helping Russia roll over Ukraine, just so...what? Satisfy romantic Russian visions of the way things should be? I mean, how can you look at what Russia did in Ukraine and make the case they are able to "control their sphere of influence?"

It is your thinking with makes no sense. A better case can be made for helping Ukraine become the dominant power in Eurasia.

Then if I understand you, Russia is only entitled to a sphere of influence if they can support it and if they don't act outside of it, even by maintaining informal "alliances" like the one with China.

How does that principle apply to us? If we choose to act in a distant region where Russia has an interest, like Syria for example, do we forfeit our right to security against threats near our own borders?
When was the last time we invaded Mexico or Canada?? 1850's? Even Cuba, we could have invaded several different times but didn't. You think Russia shows that restraint? Using your logic in Ukraine, it is all right for us to invade Mexico and create a buffer so we feel more comfortable.

The times we have gone into other Nations militarily Russia, China too for that matter, didn't think twice supporting our opponents. (See N Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and others)
We invaded Mexico multiple times...including occupying their largest port at Veracruz in 1914

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Veracruz

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/the-tampico-affair-how-mexico-saw-the-us-1914-invasion/

Not to mention that one of the main reasons there is a Dominion of Canada today is the formerly independent provinces in upper and lower canada were terrified watching what the USA did to the Mexico in the 1840s and to its own Southern break away states in the 1860s. "The original Fathers of Confederation are those delegates who attended the conferences held at Charlottetown and Quebec in 1864 or in London, United Kingdom, in 1866, leading to Confederation". Not surprising that Canada joined together right as the war to the South of them was going on. For over 100 years the largest military concentration of British imperial troops outside of India (the jewel of the Empire) was in Canada...to guard against the military power of the United States.

[The calm didn't last long. In 1861, during the Civil War, the U.S. Navy arrested two Confederate diplomats traveling to Britain which had remained neutral on a British ship, the Trent. Both sides bristled, the governor general of Canada ordered troops to the border and the British accused the U.S. secretary of state of masterminding the whole affair as an excuse to invade Canadian territory. (Canadians had watched that "annexation" of Texas pretty closely.) Eventually, Lincoln decided that one war was enough for the moment and released the Confederate envoys-narrowly averting a military clash.]

And of course we not only were involve in Cuban internal politics since its independence from Spain (a war of independence we fought for them) but we staged in Bay of Pig invasion to help over throw the communist government of Cuba in 1961

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion

We have not hesitated in project power in our local sphere of influence in North and South America when it was felt there was a need.
Speechless that you could make an equivalency here.
Did we ever invade Mexico to stay?
Did we annex Veracruz?

Are you not aware of the circumstances that tipped us into participation in WWI?
Ever heard of the Zimmerman telegram?
Doesn't that little tidbit put Veracruz into a different light?



False equivalence?

FLBear asked when was the last time we invaded mexico, canada, or cuba.

I gave him the relevant dates.

I made no argument or statement as to the justification or wisdom of those invasions/interventions.
The proper answer is, we've never invaded them with the intention of including them into our union.

Well we certainly invaded parts of Mexico & Canada with the intention of placing them in our union (or large parts of them in our union)...some times successfully and some times not so successfully.

https://www.history.com/news/how-u-s-forces-failed-to-conquer-canada-200-years-ago

In both the revolutionary war and the war of 1812 the U.S. tried to conquer Canada and bring it into the Federal Union.

Obviously we know that Mexico was forced the cede half its territory to the United States.... "55 percent of its territory, including the present-day states California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, and parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming"

So while there has been not real invasion with the intent to annex these areas for over 130 years....we can't pretend there were never any instances where this happened.
You badly misapply history to fit the "American Imperialist" narrative.

WHY was Mexico forced to cede territory to us?
They lost a war with us.
WHY did that war happen?
Mexico tried to enforce territorial claims NORTH of the Rio Grande.
HOW did Mexico try to enforce those claims?
They attacked a US military unit in sovereign US Territory.

We actually offered to PAY them for the disputed territory (and more).
They refused.
Then they attacked.
Then we won.
So, WE are the oppressors?
Did we send in little green men?
Did we just invade and take it all (like Russia did in Ukraine?)

No.
Of course not.
Congress approved a Declaration of War after a Mexican attack on US military units on US soil.

Again,

You have to place words in my mouth in order to have an argument.

I never said the USA was an "imperialist" power toward Canada or Mexico.

The question was asked when the USA invaded Canada or Mexico. And if it was ever contemplated to have all or parts of these nations join the Federal Union.

I gave the relevant dates and said yes....some parts of Mexico were brought in to the USA as States. And that there was in fact discussion all through the 1800s about Canada possibly joining the USA.


So instead of just accepting the true of these statements you run some defense of a position I never took...."muh Mexico lost land because it lost a war with the USA!" Uh I never said or implied anything different.

p.s.

If you want me to take a position on these things.... I personally think Polk was betrayed by his negotiator in Mexico. We almost got all of modern Northern Mexico (Baja California, Baja California Sur...maybe all or parts of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Len, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas) but instead he undermined the negotiations and settled for far far less.

[Trist's negotiation was controversial among expansionist Democrats since he had ignored Polk's instructions and settled on a smaller cession of Mexican territory than many expansionists wanted and felt he could have obtained. A part of this instruction was to specifically include Baja California. However, as part of the negotiations, Trist drew the line directly west from Yuma to Tijuana/San Diego instead of from Yuma south to the Gulf of California, which left all of Baja California a part of Mexico, and Polk was furious. In the end, Polk reluctantly approved the treaty since he wanted to have it signed, sealed, and delivered to Congress during his presidency. Trist later commented on the treaty:
Quote:

"My feeling of shame as an American was far stronger than the Mexicans' could be
Upon return to Washington, Trist was immediately fired for his insubordination, and his expenses since the time of the recall order were not paid. After his dismissal, Trist moved to West Chester, Pennsylvania, and then to Philadelphia, where he worked as a railroad clerk and paymaster. Trist finally recovered his expenses in 1871, at the urging of Senator Charles Sumner

Trist supported Republican Abraham Lincoln for U.S. president in 1860]

Trist decided to let is own personal views be placed above the will of the American people and the elected President's own specific instructions.

I mean how many times have we seen that in modern times were career bureaucrat decide they know what is best.

So instead of the USA getting most of Northern Mexico (basically uninhabited/low population at the time) we got far less than what we could have.
Those career bureaucrats spend their lives working on areas and develop expertise that the majority of elected officials need.

Ever talk to an elected official? They are expected to vote on a myriad of things without any knowledge about them. Even their ideas, which may be great, they have no idea how to actually get it done. That is what the bureaucracy you make fun of excels at doing. Try getting something accomplished without the supporting structure, you end up Trump. Just yelling.

So they never make mistakes or fail to carry out the lawful orders and instructions of their constitutionally elected superiors?

Man you love and trust the Federal government and its ever growing army of bureaucratic workers almost as much as Trey and Whiterock

But I do love you swinging in to defend helpless Nick Trist (and the honor of Federal bureaucrats everywhere) he obviously knew better than the President of the United States.

[the British commissioner Dr. Richard Robert Madden wrote U.S. abolitionists about Trist's misuse of his post to promote slavery and earn fees from the fraudulent document schemes. A pamphlet detailing Madden's charges was published shortly before the beginning of the sensational Amistad affair, when Africans sold into slavery in Cuba managed to seize control of the schooner in which they were being transported from Havana to provincial plantations. Madden travelled to the United States, where he gave expert testimony in the trial of the Amistad Africans, explaining how false documents were used to make it appear the Africans were Cuban-born slaves.

This exposure of the activities of the U.S. Consul General, coupled with the complaints of ship captains, caused a Congressional investigation and eventual recall of Trist in 1840.]

[President Polk was unhappy with his envoy's conduct which prompted him to order Trist to return to the United States. General Winfield Scott was also unhappy with Trist's presence in Mexico...
However, the wily diplomat ignored the instructions to leave Mexico. He wrote a 65-page letter back to Washington, D.C. explaining his reasons for staying in Mexico]


Trust, no just the millions of thankless professionals that get you water, roads, air travel, products from overseas, pipe away your **** (literally), deal with waste, try to protect the food supply, law enforcement, run prisons, try to manage the border etc...

You seem to think this stuff just happens.


Yes yes

Instead of dealing with the specifics of this off the reservation diplomat you have decided to use this thread to mount your own pulpit about the virtues of American bureaucrats.

Yes many do fine work. One uncle of mine worked in Texas government for 40 years.

Thank you Mr. White Knight


When I do it I am a white knight? Have your posts are trying to be a white knight against any action the US takes!

lol I just defended the Mexican-American war and said that the USA should have gotten MORE land if not for the actions of a incompetent career bureaucrat who ignored instructions to get more land from the Mexican government.

Oh and also happened to be a forger of slave documents as well.

Are you still on this forum defending every bureaucrat in the Federal government and every action the US foreign policy establishment and secret alphabet agencies make?

You defend every action the D.C. elite take.....so if you hear any criticism you immediately think that person is as 100% devoted to partisan loyalty as you are but just in reverse.

I see plenty of actions the USA has done that are very good...and some that were wrong...and even more that were just bungled from the get go.

You on the other had a cultist and slavish trust in all things touching on governmental power.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

S said:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I am a power geopolitical type but disagree with the Kissinger/Mearsheimer argument on Nato's post-CW expansion into former WP nations. Yes, Russia is a great power, but no great power is entitled to a "sphere." They have to earn it one way or the other. Lithuania used to be a great power. Poland used to be a great power. Sweden, Austria/Hungary, etc.... Times change.

Russia fails over and over to keep up with the west. There is a reason for that. We should not coddle their incompetence and paleo-thinking by continually treating them as an equal. They want to be great, they need something more than nuclear weapons. An older NSA operative I served with in one capacity or another for most of my time abroad was a Russian specialist. He made a quote back during the Cold War that keeps getting proven true over and over again: "Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons."

Russia's like the guy who's muscle-bound from the waist up but never does a leg day.
I don't understand this kind of thinking, for several reasons. It implies that what Russia is doing would be fine if they just destroyed Ukraine more efficiently, which means all the moral and legal arguments against the invasion are irrelevant. It treats spheres of influence as a status symbol rather than a means to stability. But it's stability that is in our interest; opposing Russia just to put them in their place is petty and pointless. Russia bore the heaviest burden against Germany in WWII and was a party to the division of Europe following the war. This greatly weighs in favor of their inclusion in the club, if that's how you want to think of it. More important, it has implications for Russian security that can't be ignored following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Finally, Russia is one of the few European regimes or cultures that are now resisting wokeness and neo-Marxism.
Doesn't mean that at all. It's a corollary of the old adage: "...power cannot be given; it must be taken..." Affording Russia a sphere of influence it cannot support is what makes no sense....it is exactly what you go on to say - "...a status symbol..." which is not a means to stability at all. UKRAINE is already Russia's equal in many respects. Why not Ukraine as the stable influence in Eurasia? Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons which does not deserve the degree of deference we have afforded to it. It cannot even handle the Donbas, fer crissakes. Time for Russia to come to terms with its situation and start making hard decisions on internal reforms. History of the last 500 years shows over and over that Russia has been poked in the nose and realized it is "behind the times." Time for them to grow up, or suffer the consequences of their backwardness.
This is circular reasoning. We intervene because they can't support their sphere of influence, but they could support it just fine if we didn't intervene.

We did not start our aid package until AFTER the Ukes stopped the initial Russian invasion. In other words, we were prepared to let Russia have it if they could take it. They couldn't. So here we are.

Nations in the shatterzone will calculate on when/if/how much to step outside traditional influence to see outside aid. And that outside aid will always calculate odds….assess risk…can the traditional power actually hold onto the area?
Russia can't.
They're going to lose.
This is good.
Makes no sense at all to help them consolidate anything when they are trying to disrupt us all over the world. A weak despotic power make be a useful if strange bedfellows in war against a common enemy, but it is no good partner in peace.


So it's not that they can't support their sphere of influence, it's that it "makes no sense" to let them. What are they doing to disrupt us all over the world?
a very long list of things you well know, to include supporting Iran, NK, allying with China, etc.... That's what the weak have to do - disrupt the existing order.

It indeed makes no sense to prop up an ostensibly great power which really isn't just to....what? To what end? By your logic, we should be helping Russia roll over Ukraine, just so...what? Satisfy romantic Russian visions of the way things should be? I mean, how can you look at what Russia did in Ukraine and make the case they are able to "control their sphere of influence?"

It is your thinking with makes no sense. A better case can be made for helping Ukraine become the dominant power in Eurasia.

Then if I understand you, Russia is only entitled to a sphere of influence if they can support it and if they don't act outside of it, even by maintaining informal "alliances" like the one with China.

How does that principle apply to us? If we choose to act in a distant region where Russia has an interest, like Syria for example, do we forfeit our right to security against threats near our own borders?
When was the last time we invaded Mexico or Canada?? 1850's? Even Cuba, we could have invaded several different times but didn't. You think Russia shows that restraint? Using your logic in Ukraine, it is all right for us to invade Mexico and create a buffer so we feel more comfortable.

The times we have gone into other Nations militarily Russia, China too for that matter, didn't think twice supporting our opponents. (See N Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and others)
We invaded Mexico multiple times...including occupying their largest port at Veracruz in 1914

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Veracruz

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/the-tampico-affair-how-mexico-saw-the-us-1914-invasion/

Not to mention that one of the main reasons there is a Dominion of Canada today is the formerly independent provinces in upper and lower canada were terrified watching what the USA did to the Mexico in the 1840s and to its own Southern break away states in the 1860s. "The original Fathers of Confederation are those delegates who attended the conferences held at Charlottetown and Quebec in 1864 or in London, United Kingdom, in 1866, leading to Confederation". Not surprising that Canada joined together right as the war to the South of them was going on. For over 100 years the largest military concentration of British imperial troops outside of India (the jewel of the Empire) was in Canada...to guard against the military power of the United States.

[The calm didn't last long. In 1861, during the Civil War, the U.S. Navy arrested two Confederate diplomats traveling to Britain which had remained neutral on a British ship, the Trent. Both sides bristled, the governor general of Canada ordered troops to the border and the British accused the U.S. secretary of state of masterminding the whole affair as an excuse to invade Canadian territory. (Canadians had watched that "annexation" of Texas pretty closely.) Eventually, Lincoln decided that one war was enough for the moment and released the Confederate envoys-narrowly averting a military clash.]

And of course we not only were involve in Cuban internal politics since its independence from Spain (a war of independence we fought for them) but we staged in Bay of Pig invasion to help over throw the communist government of Cuba in 1961

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion

We have not hesitated in project power in our local sphere of influence in North and South America when it was felt there was a need.
Speechless that you could make an equivalency here.
Did we ever invade Mexico to stay?
Did we annex Veracruz?

Are you not aware of the circumstances that tipped us into participation in WWI?
Ever heard of the Zimmerman telegram?
Doesn't that little tidbit put Veracruz into a different light?



False equivalence?

FLBear asked when was the last time we invaded mexico, canada, or cuba.

I gave him the relevant dates.

I made no argument or statement as to the justification or wisdom of those invasions/interventions.
The proper answer is, we've never invaded them with the intention of including them into our union.

Well we certainly invaded parts of Mexico & Canada with the intention of placing them in our union (or large parts of them in our union)...some times successfully and some times not so successfully.

https://www.history.com/news/how-u-s-forces-failed-to-conquer-canada-200-years-ago

In both the revolutionary war and the war of 1812 the U.S. tried to conquer Canada and bring it into the Federal Union.

Obviously we know that Mexico was forced the cede half its territory to the United States.... "55 percent of its territory, including the present-day states California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, and parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming"

So while there has been not real invasion with the intent to annex these areas for over 130 years....we can't pretend there were never any instances where this happened.
You badly misapply history to fit the "American Imperialist" narrative.

WHY was Mexico forced to cede territory to us?
They lost a war with us.
WHY did that war happen?
Mexico tried to enforce territorial claims NORTH of the Rio Grande.
HOW did Mexico try to enforce those claims?
They attacked a US military unit in sovereign US Territory.

We actually offered to PAY them for the disputed territory (and more).
They refused.
Then they attacked.
Then we won.
So, WE are the oppressors?
Did we send in little green men?
Did we just invade and take it all (like Russia did in Ukraine?)

No.
Of course not.
Congress approved a Declaration of War after a Mexican attack on US military units on US soil.

Again,

You have to place words in my mouth in order to have an argument.

I never said the USA was an "imperialist" power toward Canada or Mexico.

The question was asked when the USA invaded Canada or Mexico. And if it was ever contemplated to have all or parts of these nations join the Federal Union.

I gave the relevant dates and said yes....some parts of Mexico were brought in to the USA as States. And that there was in fact discussion all through the 1800s about Canada possibly joining the USA.


So instead of just accepting the true of these statements you run some defense of a position I never took...."muh Mexico lost land because it lost a war with the USA!" Uh I never said or implied anything different.

p.s.

If you want me to take a position on these things.... I personally think Polk was betrayed by his negotiator in Mexico. We almost got all of modern Northern Mexico (Baja California, Baja California Sur...maybe all or parts of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Len, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas) but instead he undermined the negotiations and settled for far far less.

[Trist's negotiation was controversial among expansionist Democrats since he had ignored Polk's instructions and settled on a smaller cession of Mexican territory than many expansionists wanted and felt he could have obtained. A part of this instruction was to specifically include Baja California. However, as part of the negotiations, Trist drew the line directly west from Yuma to Tijuana/San Diego instead of from Yuma south to the Gulf of California, which left all of Baja California a part of Mexico, and Polk was furious. In the end, Polk reluctantly approved the treaty since he wanted to have it signed, sealed, and delivered to Congress during his presidency. Trist later commented on the treaty:
Quote:

"My feeling of shame as an American was far stronger than the Mexicans' could be
Upon return to Washington, Trist was immediately fired for his insubordination, and his expenses since the time of the recall order were not paid. After his dismissal, Trist moved to West Chester, Pennsylvania, and then to Philadelphia, where he worked as a railroad clerk and paymaster. Trist finally recovered his expenses in 1871, at the urging of Senator Charles Sumner

Trist supported Republican Abraham Lincoln for U.S. president in 1860]

Trist decided to let is own personal views be placed above the will of the American people and the elected President's own specific instructions.

I mean how many times have we seen that in modern times were career bureaucrat decide they know what is best.

So instead of the USA getting most of Northern Mexico (basically uninhabited/low population at the time) we got far less than what we could have.
Those career bureaucrats spend their lives working on areas and develop expertise that the majority of elected officials need.

Ever talk to an elected official? They are expected to vote on a myriad of things without any knowledge about them. Even their ideas, which may be great, they have no idea how to actually get it done. That is what the bureaucracy you make fun of excels at doing. Try getting something accomplished without the supporting structure, you end up Trump. Just yelling.

So they never make mistakes or fail to carry out the lawful orders and instructions of their constitutionally elected superiors?

Man you love and trust the Federal government and its ever growing army of bureaucratic workers almost as much as Trey and Whiterock

But I do love you swinging in to defend helpless Nick Trist (and the honor of Federal bureaucrats everywhere) he obviously knew better than the President of the United States.

[the British commissioner Dr. Richard Robert Madden wrote U.S. abolitionists about Trist's misuse of his post to promote slavery and earn fees from the fraudulent document schemes. A pamphlet detailing Madden's charges was published shortly before the beginning of the sensational Amistad affair, when Africans sold into slavery in Cuba managed to seize control of the schooner in which they were being transported from Havana to provincial plantations. Madden travelled to the United States, where he gave expert testimony in the trial of the Amistad Africans, explaining how false documents were used to make it appear the Africans were Cuban-born slaves.

This exposure of the activities of the U.S. Consul General, coupled with the complaints of ship captains, caused a Congressional investigation and eventual recall of Trist in 1840.]

[President Polk was unhappy with his envoy's conduct which prompted him to order Trist to return to the United States. General Winfield Scott was also unhappy with Trist's presence in Mexico...
However, the wily diplomat ignored the instructions to leave Mexico. He wrote a 65-page letter back to Washington, D.C. explaining his reasons for staying in Mexico]


Trust, no just the millions of thankless professionals that get you water, roads, air travel, products from overseas, pipe away your **** (literally), deal with waste, try to protect the food supply, law enforcement, run prisons, try to manage the border etc...

You seem to think this stuff just happens.


Yes yes

Instead of dealing with the specifics of this off the reservation diplomat you have decided to use this thread to mount your own pulpit about the virtues of American bureaucrats.

Yes many do fine work. One uncle of mine worked in Texas government for 40 years.

Thank you Mr. White Knight


When I do it I am a white knight? Have your posts are trying to be a white knight against any action the US takes!

lol I just defended the Mexican-American war and said that the USA should have gotten MORE land if not for the actions of a incompetent career bureaucrat who ignored instructions to get more land from the Mexican government.

Oh and also happened to be a forger of slave documents as well.

Are you still on this form defending every bureaucrat in the Federal government and every action the US foreign policy establishment and secret alphabet agencies make?

You defend every action the D.C. elite take.....so if you hear any criticism you immediately think that person is as 100% devoted to partisan loyalty as you are but just in reverse.

I see plenty of actions the USA has done that are very good...and some that were wrong...and even more that were just bungled from the get go.

You on the other had a cultist and slavish trust in all things touching on governmental power.
Ok fair point.

In the modern era, you seem to be a white knight against the US policies of the last 75 years. Better?
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

S said:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I am a power geopolitical type but disagree with the Kissinger/Mearsheimer argument on Nato's post-CW expansion into former WP nations. Yes, Russia is a great power, but no great power is entitled to a "sphere." They have to earn it one way or the other. Lithuania used to be a great power. Poland used to be a great power. Sweden, Austria/Hungary, etc.... Times change.

Russia fails over and over to keep up with the west. There is a reason for that. We should not coddle their incompetence and paleo-thinking by continually treating them as an equal. They want to be great, they need something more than nuclear weapons. An older NSA operative I served with in one capacity or another for most of my time abroad was a Russian specialist. He made a quote back during the Cold War that keeps getting proven true over and over again: "Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons."

Russia's like the guy who's muscle-bound from the waist up but never does a leg day.
I don't understand this kind of thinking, for several reasons. It implies that what Russia is doing would be fine if they just destroyed Ukraine more efficiently, which means all the moral and legal arguments against the invasion are irrelevant. It treats spheres of influence as a status symbol rather than a means to stability. But it's stability that is in our interest; opposing Russia just to put them in their place is petty and pointless. Russia bore the heaviest burden against Germany in WWII and was a party to the division of Europe following the war. This greatly weighs in favor of their inclusion in the club, if that's how you want to think of it. More important, it has implications for Russian security that can't be ignored following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Finally, Russia is one of the few European regimes or cultures that are now resisting wokeness and neo-Marxism.
Doesn't mean that at all. It's a corollary of the old adage: "...power cannot be given; it must be taken..." Affording Russia a sphere of influence it cannot support is what makes no sense....it is exactly what you go on to say - "...a status symbol..." which is not a means to stability at all. UKRAINE is already Russia's equal in many respects. Why not Ukraine as the stable influence in Eurasia? Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons which does not deserve the degree of deference we have afforded to it. It cannot even handle the Donbas, fer crissakes. Time for Russia to come to terms with its situation and start making hard decisions on internal reforms. History of the last 500 years shows over and over that Russia has been poked in the nose and realized it is "behind the times." Time for them to grow up, or suffer the consequences of their backwardness.
This is circular reasoning. We intervene because they can't support their sphere of influence, but they could support it just fine if we didn't intervene.

We did not start our aid package until AFTER the Ukes stopped the initial Russian invasion. In other words, we were prepared to let Russia have it if they could take it. They couldn't. So here we are.

Nations in the shatterzone will calculate on when/if/how much to step outside traditional influence to see outside aid. And that outside aid will always calculate odds….assess risk…can the traditional power actually hold onto the area?
Russia can't.
They're going to lose.
This is good.
Makes no sense at all to help them consolidate anything when they are trying to disrupt us all over the world. A weak despotic power make be a useful if strange bedfellows in war against a common enemy, but it is no good partner in peace.


So it's not that they can't support their sphere of influence, it's that it "makes no sense" to let them. What are they doing to disrupt us all over the world?
a very long list of things you well know, to include supporting Iran, NK, allying with China, etc.... That's what the weak have to do - disrupt the existing order.

It indeed makes no sense to prop up an ostensibly great power which really isn't just to....what? To what end? By your logic, we should be helping Russia roll over Ukraine, just so...what? Satisfy romantic Russian visions of the way things should be? I mean, how can you look at what Russia did in Ukraine and make the case they are able to "control their sphere of influence?"

It is your thinking with makes no sense. A better case can be made for helping Ukraine become the dominant power in Eurasia.

Then if I understand you, Russia is only entitled to a sphere of influence if they can support it and if they don't act outside of it, even by maintaining informal "alliances" like the one with China.

How does that principle apply to us? If we choose to act in a distant region where Russia has an interest, like Syria for example, do we forfeit our right to security against threats near our own borders?
When was the last time we invaded Mexico or Canada?? 1850's? Even Cuba, we could have invaded several different times but didn't. You think Russia shows that restraint? Using your logic in Ukraine, it is all right for us to invade Mexico and create a buffer so we feel more comfortable.

The times we have gone into other Nations militarily Russia, China too for that matter, didn't think twice supporting our opponents. (See N Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and others)
We invaded Mexico multiple times...including occupying their largest port at Veracruz in 1914

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Veracruz

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/the-tampico-affair-how-mexico-saw-the-us-1914-invasion/

Not to mention that one of the main reasons there is a Dominion of Canada today is the formerly independent provinces in upper and lower canada were terrified watching what the USA did to the Mexico in the 1840s and to its own Southern break away states in the 1860s. "The original Fathers of Confederation are those delegates who attended the conferences held at Charlottetown and Quebec in 1864 or in London, United Kingdom, in 1866, leading to Confederation". Not surprising that Canada joined together right as the war to the South of them was going on. For over 100 years the largest military concentration of British imperial troops outside of India (the jewel of the Empire) was in Canada...to guard against the military power of the United States.

[The calm didn't last long. In 1861, during the Civil War, the U.S. Navy arrested two Confederate diplomats traveling to Britain which had remained neutral on a British ship, the Trent. Both sides bristled, the governor general of Canada ordered troops to the border and the British accused the U.S. secretary of state of masterminding the whole affair as an excuse to invade Canadian territory. (Canadians had watched that "annexation" of Texas pretty closely.) Eventually, Lincoln decided that one war was enough for the moment and released the Confederate envoys-narrowly averting a military clash.]

And of course we not only were involve in Cuban internal politics since its independence from Spain (a war of independence we fought for them) but we staged in Bay of Pig invasion to help over throw the communist government of Cuba in 1961

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion

We have not hesitated in project power in our local sphere of influence in North and South America when it was felt there was a need.
Speechless that you could make an equivalency here.
Did we ever invade Mexico to stay?
Did we annex Veracruz?

Are you not aware of the circumstances that tipped us into participation in WWI?
Ever heard of the Zimmerman telegram?
Doesn't that little tidbit put Veracruz into a different light?



False equivalence?

FLBear asked when was the last time we invaded mexico, canada, or cuba.

I gave him the relevant dates.

I made no argument or statement as to the justification or wisdom of those invasions/interventions.
The proper answer is, we've never invaded them with the intention of including them into our union.

Well we certainly invaded parts of Mexico & Canada with the intention of placing them in our union (or large parts of them in our union)...some times successfully and some times not so successfully.

https://www.history.com/news/how-u-s-forces-failed-to-conquer-canada-200-years-ago

In both the revolutionary war and the war of 1812 the U.S. tried to conquer Canada and bring it into the Federal Union.

Obviously we know that Mexico was forced the cede half its territory to the United States.... "55 percent of its territory, including the present-day states California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, and parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming"

So while there has been not real invasion with the intent to annex these areas for over 130 years....we can't pretend there were never any instances where this happened.
You badly misapply history to fit the "American Imperialist" narrative.

WHY was Mexico forced to cede territory to us?
They lost a war with us.
WHY did that war happen?
Mexico tried to enforce territorial claims NORTH of the Rio Grande.
HOW did Mexico try to enforce those claims?
They attacked a US military unit in sovereign US Territory.

We actually offered to PAY them for the disputed territory (and more).
They refused.
Then they attacked.
Then we won.
So, WE are the oppressors?
Did we send in little green men?
Did we just invade and take it all (like Russia did in Ukraine?)

No.
Of course not.
Congress approved a Declaration of War after a Mexican attack on US military units on US soil.

Again,

You have to place words in my mouth in order to have an argument.

I never said the USA was an "imperialist" power toward Canada or Mexico.

The question was asked when the USA invaded Canada or Mexico. And if it was ever contemplated to have all or parts of these nations join the Federal Union.

I gave the relevant dates and said yes....some parts of Mexico were brought in to the USA as States. And that there was in fact discussion all through the 1800s about Canada possibly joining the USA.


So instead of just accepting the true of these statements you run some defense of a position I never took...."muh Mexico lost land because it lost a war with the USA!" Uh I never said or implied anything different.

p.s.

If you want me to take a position on these things.... I personally think Polk was betrayed by his negotiator in Mexico. We almost got all of modern Northern Mexico (Baja California, Baja California Sur...maybe all or parts of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Len, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas) but instead he undermined the negotiations and settled for far far less.

[Trist's negotiation was controversial among expansionist Democrats since he had ignored Polk's instructions and settled on a smaller cession of Mexican territory than many expansionists wanted and felt he could have obtained. A part of this instruction was to specifically include Baja California. However, as part of the negotiations, Trist drew the line directly west from Yuma to Tijuana/San Diego instead of from Yuma south to the Gulf of California, which left all of Baja California a part of Mexico, and Polk was furious. In the end, Polk reluctantly approved the treaty since he wanted to have it signed, sealed, and delivered to Congress during his presidency. Trist later commented on the treaty:
Quote:

"My feeling of shame as an American was far stronger than the Mexicans' could be
Upon return to Washington, Trist was immediately fired for his insubordination, and his expenses since the time of the recall order were not paid. After his dismissal, Trist moved to West Chester, Pennsylvania, and then to Philadelphia, where he worked as a railroad clerk and paymaster. Trist finally recovered his expenses in 1871, at the urging of Senator Charles Sumner

Trist supported Republican Abraham Lincoln for U.S. president in 1860]

Trist decided to let is own personal views be placed above the will of the American people and the elected President's own specific instructions.

I mean how many times have we seen that in modern times were career bureaucrat decide they know what is best.

So instead of the USA getting most of Northern Mexico (basically uninhabited/low population at the time) we got far less than what we could have.
Those career bureaucrats spend their lives working on areas and develop expertise that the majority of elected officials need.

Ever talk to an elected official? They are expected to vote on a myriad of things without any knowledge about them. Even their ideas, which may be great, they have no idea how to actually get it done. That is what the bureaucracy you make fun of excels at doing. Try getting something accomplished without the supporting structure, you end up Trump. Just yelling.

So they never make mistakes or fail to carry out the lawful orders and instructions of their constitutionally elected superiors?

Man you love and trust the Federal government and its ever growing army of bureaucratic workers almost as much as Trey and Whiterock

But I do love you swinging in to defend helpless Nick Trist (and the honor of Federal bureaucrats everywhere) he obviously knew better than the President of the United States.

[the British commissioner Dr. Richard Robert Madden wrote U.S. abolitionists about Trist's misuse of his post to promote slavery and earn fees from the fraudulent document schemes. A pamphlet detailing Madden's charges was published shortly before the beginning of the sensational Amistad affair, when Africans sold into slavery in Cuba managed to seize control of the schooner in which they were being transported from Havana to provincial plantations. Madden travelled to the United States, where he gave expert testimony in the trial of the Amistad Africans, explaining how false documents were used to make it appear the Africans were Cuban-born slaves.

This exposure of the activities of the U.S. Consul General, coupled with the complaints of ship captains, caused a Congressional investigation and eventual recall of Trist in 1840.]

[President Polk was unhappy with his envoy's conduct which prompted him to order Trist to return to the United States. General Winfield Scott was also unhappy with Trist's presence in Mexico...
However, the wily diplomat ignored the instructions to leave Mexico. He wrote a 65-page letter back to Washington, D.C. explaining his reasons for staying in Mexico]


Trust, no just the millions of thankless professionals that get you water, roads, air travel, products from overseas, pipe away your **** (literally), deal with waste, try to protect the food supply, law enforcement, run prisons, try to manage the border etc...

You seem to think this stuff just happens.


Yes yes

Instead of dealing with the specifics of this off the reservation diplomat you have decided to use this thread to mount your own pulpit about the virtues of American bureaucrats.

Yes many do fine work. One uncle of mine worked in Texas government for 40 years.

Thank you Mr. White Knight


When I do it I am a white knight? Have your posts are trying to be a white knight against any action the US takes!

lol I just defended the Mexican-American war and said that the USA should have gotten MORE land if not for the actions of a incompetent career bureaucrat who ignored instructions to get more land from the Mexican government.

Oh and also happened to be a forger of slave documents as well.

Are you still on this form defending every bureaucrat in the Federal government and every action the US foreign policy establishment and secret alphabet agencies make?

You defend every action the D.C. elite take.....so if you hear any criticism you immediately think that person is as 100% devoted to partisan loyalty as you are but just in reverse.

I see plenty of actions the USA has done that are very good...and some that were wrong...and even more that were just bungled from the get go.

You on the other had a cultist and slavish trust in all things touching on governmental power.
Ok fair point.

In the modern era, you seem to be a white knight against the US policies of the last 75 years. Better?

I think US policy in Korea and Europe during the Cold War made complete sense.

Want to try again...or are you tired of trying to win internet arguments by making up straw man views and attributing them to me?
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

S said:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I am a power geopolitical type but disagree with the Kissinger/Mearsheimer argument on Nato's post-CW expansion into former WP nations. Yes, Russia is a great power, but no great power is entitled to a "sphere." They have to earn it one way or the other. Lithuania used to be a great power. Poland used to be a great power. Sweden, Austria/Hungary, etc.... Times change.

Russia fails over and over to keep up with the west. There is a reason for that. We should not coddle their incompetence and paleo-thinking by continually treating them as an equal. They want to be great, they need something more than nuclear weapons. An older NSA operative I served with in one capacity or another for most of my time abroad was a Russian specialist. He made a quote back during the Cold War that keeps getting proven true over and over again: "Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons."

Russia's like the guy who's muscle-bound from the waist up but never does a leg day.
I don't understand this kind of thinking, for several reasons. It implies that what Russia is doing would be fine if they just destroyed Ukraine more efficiently, which means all the moral and legal arguments against the invasion are irrelevant. It treats spheres of influence as a status symbol rather than a means to stability. But it's stability that is in our interest; opposing Russia just to put them in their place is petty and pointless. Russia bore the heaviest burden against Germany in WWII and was a party to the division of Europe following the war. This greatly weighs in favor of their inclusion in the club, if that's how you want to think of it. More important, it has implications for Russian security that can't be ignored following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Finally, Russia is one of the few European regimes or cultures that are now resisting wokeness and neo-Marxism.
Doesn't mean that at all. It's a corollary of the old adage: "...power cannot be given; it must be taken..." Affording Russia a sphere of influence it cannot support is what makes no sense....it is exactly what you go on to say - "...a status symbol..." which is not a means to stability at all. UKRAINE is already Russia's equal in many respects. Why not Ukraine as the stable influence in Eurasia? Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons which does not deserve the degree of deference we have afforded to it. It cannot even handle the Donbas, fer crissakes. Time for Russia to come to terms with its situation and start making hard decisions on internal reforms. History of the last 500 years shows over and over that Russia has been poked in the nose and realized it is "behind the times." Time for them to grow up, or suffer the consequences of their backwardness.
This is circular reasoning. We intervene because they can't support their sphere of influence, but they could support it just fine if we didn't intervene.

We did not start our aid package until AFTER the Ukes stopped the initial Russian invasion. In other words, we were prepared to let Russia have it if they could take it. They couldn't. So here we are.

Nations in the shatterzone will calculate on when/if/how much to step outside traditional influence to see outside aid. And that outside aid will always calculate odds….assess risk…can the traditional power actually hold onto the area?
Russia can't.
They're going to lose.
This is good.
Makes no sense at all to help them consolidate anything when they are trying to disrupt us all over the world. A weak despotic power make be a useful if strange bedfellows in war against a common enemy, but it is no good partner in peace.


So it's not that they can't support their sphere of influence, it's that it "makes no sense" to let them. What are they doing to disrupt us all over the world?
a very long list of things you well know, to include supporting Iran, NK, allying with China, etc.... That's what the weak have to do - disrupt the existing order.

It indeed makes no sense to prop up an ostensibly great power which really isn't just to....what? To what end? By your logic, we should be helping Russia roll over Ukraine, just so...what? Satisfy romantic Russian visions of the way things should be? I mean, how can you look at what Russia did in Ukraine and make the case they are able to "control their sphere of influence?"

It is your thinking with makes no sense. A better case can be made for helping Ukraine become the dominant power in Eurasia.

Then if I understand you, Russia is only entitled to a sphere of influence if they can support it and if they don't act outside of it, even by maintaining informal "alliances" like the one with China.

How does that principle apply to us? If we choose to act in a distant region where Russia has an interest, like Syria for example, do we forfeit our right to security against threats near our own borders?
When was the last time we invaded Mexico or Canada?? 1850's? Even Cuba, we could have invaded several different times but didn't. You think Russia shows that restraint? Using your logic in Ukraine, it is all right for us to invade Mexico and create a buffer so we feel more comfortable.

The times we have gone into other Nations militarily Russia, China too for that matter, didn't think twice supporting our opponents. (See N Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and others)
We invaded Mexico multiple times...including occupying their largest port at Veracruz in 1914

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Veracruz

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/the-tampico-affair-how-mexico-saw-the-us-1914-invasion/

Not to mention that one of the main reasons there is a Dominion of Canada today is the formerly independent provinces in upper and lower canada were terrified watching what the USA did to the Mexico in the 1840s and to its own Southern break away states in the 1860s. "The original Fathers of Confederation are those delegates who attended the conferences held at Charlottetown and Quebec in 1864 or in London, United Kingdom, in 1866, leading to Confederation". Not surprising that Canada joined together right as the war to the South of them was going on. For over 100 years the largest military concentration of British imperial troops outside of India (the jewel of the Empire) was in Canada...to guard against the military power of the United States.

[The calm didn't last long. In 1861, during the Civil War, the U.S. Navy arrested two Confederate diplomats traveling to Britain which had remained neutral on a British ship, the Trent. Both sides bristled, the governor general of Canada ordered troops to the border and the British accused the U.S. secretary of state of masterminding the whole affair as an excuse to invade Canadian territory. (Canadians had watched that "annexation" of Texas pretty closely.) Eventually, Lincoln decided that one war was enough for the moment and released the Confederate envoys-narrowly averting a military clash.]

And of course we not only were involve in Cuban internal politics since its independence from Spain (a war of independence we fought for them) but we staged in Bay of Pig invasion to help over throw the communist government of Cuba in 1961

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion

We have not hesitated in project power in our local sphere of influence in North and South America when it was felt there was a need.
Speechless that you could make an equivalency here.
Did we ever invade Mexico to stay?
Did we annex Veracruz?

Are you not aware of the circumstances that tipped us into participation in WWI?
Ever heard of the Zimmerman telegram?
Doesn't that little tidbit put Veracruz into a different light?



False equivalence?

FLBear asked when was the last time we invaded mexico, canada, or cuba.

I gave him the relevant dates.

I made no argument or statement as to the justification or wisdom of those invasions/interventions.
The proper answer is, we've never invaded them with the intention of including them into our union.

Well we certainly invaded parts of Mexico & Canada with the intention of placing them in our union (or large parts of them in our union)...some times successfully and some times not so successfully.

https://www.history.com/news/how-u-s-forces-failed-to-conquer-canada-200-years-ago

In both the revolutionary war and the war of 1812 the U.S. tried to conquer Canada and bring it into the Federal Union.

Obviously we know that Mexico was forced the cede half its territory to the United States.... "55 percent of its territory, including the present-day states California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, and parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming"

So while there has been not real invasion with the intent to annex these areas for over 130 years....we can't pretend there were never any instances where this happened.
You badly misapply history to fit the "American Imperialist" narrative.

WHY was Mexico forced to cede territory to us?
They lost a war with us.
WHY did that war happen?
Mexico tried to enforce territorial claims NORTH of the Rio Grande.
HOW did Mexico try to enforce those claims?
They attacked a US military unit in sovereign US Territory.

We actually offered to PAY them for the disputed territory (and more).
They refused.
Then they attacked.
Then we won.
So, WE are the oppressors?
Did we send in little green men?
Did we just invade and take it all (like Russia did in Ukraine?)

No.
Of course not.
Congress approved a Declaration of War after a Mexican attack on US military units on US soil.

Again,

You have to place words in my mouth in order to have an argument.

I never said the USA was an "imperialist" power toward Canada or Mexico.

The question was asked when the USA invaded Canada or Mexico. And if it was ever contemplated to have all or parts of these nations join the Federal Union.

I gave the relevant dates and said yes....some parts of Mexico were brought in to the USA as States. And that there was in fact discussion all through the 1800s about Canada possibly joining the USA.


So instead of just accepting the true of these statements you run some defense of a position I never took...."muh Mexico lost land because it lost a war with the USA!" Uh I never said or implied anything different.

p.s.

If you want me to take a position on these things.... I personally think Polk was betrayed by his negotiator in Mexico. We almost got all of modern Northern Mexico (Baja California, Baja California Sur...maybe all or parts of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Len, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas) but instead he undermined the negotiations and settled for far far less.

[Trist's negotiation was controversial among expansionist Democrats since he had ignored Polk's instructions and settled on a smaller cession of Mexican territory than many expansionists wanted and felt he could have obtained. A part of this instruction was to specifically include Baja California. However, as part of the negotiations, Trist drew the line directly west from Yuma to Tijuana/San Diego instead of from Yuma south to the Gulf of California, which left all of Baja California a part of Mexico, and Polk was furious. In the end, Polk reluctantly approved the treaty since he wanted to have it signed, sealed, and delivered to Congress during his presidency. Trist later commented on the treaty:
Quote:

"My feeling of shame as an American was far stronger than the Mexicans' could be
Upon return to Washington, Trist was immediately fired for his insubordination, and his expenses since the time of the recall order were not paid. After his dismissal, Trist moved to West Chester, Pennsylvania, and then to Philadelphia, where he worked as a railroad clerk and paymaster. Trist finally recovered his expenses in 1871, at the urging of Senator Charles Sumner

Trist supported Republican Abraham Lincoln for U.S. president in 1860]

Trist decided to let is own personal views be placed above the will of the American people and the elected President's own specific instructions.

I mean how many times have we seen that in modern times were career bureaucrat decide they know what is best.

So instead of the USA getting most of Northern Mexico (basically uninhabited/low population at the time) we got far less than what we could have.
Those career bureaucrats spend their lives working on areas and develop expertise that the majority of elected officials need.

Ever talk to an elected official? They are expected to vote on a myriad of things without any knowledge about them. Even their ideas, which may be great, they have no idea how to actually get it done. That is what the bureaucracy you make fun of excels at doing. Try getting something accomplished without the supporting structure, you end up Trump. Just yelling.

So they never make mistakes or fail to carry out the lawful orders and instructions of their constitutionally elected superiors?

Man you love and trust the Federal government and its ever growing army of bureaucratic workers almost as much as Trey and Whiterock

But I do love you swinging in to defend helpless Nick Trist (and the honor of Federal bureaucrats everywhere) he obviously knew better than the President of the United States.

[the British commissioner Dr. Richard Robert Madden wrote U.S. abolitionists about Trist's misuse of his post to promote slavery and earn fees from the fraudulent document schemes. A pamphlet detailing Madden's charges was published shortly before the beginning of the sensational Amistad affair, when Africans sold into slavery in Cuba managed to seize control of the schooner in which they were being transported from Havana to provincial plantations. Madden travelled to the United States, where he gave expert testimony in the trial of the Amistad Africans, explaining how false documents were used to make it appear the Africans were Cuban-born slaves.

This exposure of the activities of the U.S. Consul General, coupled with the complaints of ship captains, caused a Congressional investigation and eventual recall of Trist in 1840.]

[President Polk was unhappy with his envoy's conduct which prompted him to order Trist to return to the United States. General Winfield Scott was also unhappy with Trist's presence in Mexico...
However, the wily diplomat ignored the instructions to leave Mexico. He wrote a 65-page letter back to Washington, D.C. explaining his reasons for staying in Mexico]


Trust, no just the millions of thankless professionals that get you water, roads, air travel, products from overseas, pipe away your **** (literally), deal with waste, try to protect the food supply, law enforcement, run prisons, try to manage the border etc...

You seem to think this stuff just happens.


Yes yes

Instead of dealing with the specifics of this off the reservation diplomat you have decided to use this thread to mount your own pulpit about the virtues of American bureaucrats.

Yes many do fine work. One uncle of mine worked in Texas government for 40 years.

Thank you Mr. White Knight


When I do it I am a white knight? Have your posts are trying to be a white knight against any action the US takes!

lol I just defended the Mexican-American war and said that the USA should have gotten MORE land if not for the actions of a incompetent career bureaucrat who ignored instructions to get more land from the Mexican government.

Oh and also happened to be a forger of slave documents as well.

Are you still on this form defending every bureaucrat in the Federal government and every action the US foreign policy establishment and secret alphabet agencies make?

You defend every action the D.C. elite take.....so if you hear any criticism you immediately think that person is as 100% devoted to partisan loyalty as you are but just in reverse.

I see plenty of actions the USA has done that are very good...and some that were wrong...and even more that were just bungled from the get go.

You on the other had a cultist and slavish trust in all things touching on governmental power.
Ok fair point.

In the modern era, you seem to be a white knight against the US policies of the last 75 years. Better?

I think US policy in Korea and Europe during the Cold War made complete sense.

Want to try again...or are you tired of trying to win internet arguments by making up straw man views and attributing them to me?
My perception of your view of the last 50 years has been to side against US policy... : )
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

S said:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I am a power geopolitical type but disagree with the Kissinger/Mearsheimer argument on Nato's post-CW expansion into former WP nations. Yes, Russia is a great power, but no great power is entitled to a "sphere." They have to earn it one way or the other. Lithuania used to be a great power. Poland used to be a great power. Sweden, Austria/Hungary, etc.... Times change.

Russia fails over and over to keep up with the west. There is a reason for that. We should not coddle their incompetence and paleo-thinking by continually treating them as an equal. They want to be great, they need something more than nuclear weapons. An older NSA operative I served with in one capacity or another for most of my time abroad was a Russian specialist. He made a quote back during the Cold War that keeps getting proven true over and over again: "Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons."

Russia's like the guy who's muscle-bound from the waist up but never does a leg day.
I don't understand this kind of thinking, for several reasons. It implies that what Russia is doing would be fine if they just destroyed Ukraine more efficiently, which means all the moral and legal arguments against the invasion are irrelevant. It treats spheres of influence as a status symbol rather than a means to stability. But it's stability that is in our interest; opposing Russia just to put them in their place is petty and pointless. Russia bore the heaviest burden against Germany in WWII and was a party to the division of Europe following the war. This greatly weighs in favor of their inclusion in the club, if that's how you want to think of it. More important, it has implications for Russian security that can't be ignored following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Finally, Russia is one of the few European regimes or cultures that are now resisting wokeness and neo-Marxism.
Doesn't mean that at all. It's a corollary of the old adage: "...power cannot be given; it must be taken..." Affording Russia a sphere of influence it cannot support is what makes no sense....it is exactly what you go on to say - "...a status symbol..." which is not a means to stability at all. UKRAINE is already Russia's equal in many respects. Why not Ukraine as the stable influence in Eurasia? Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons which does not deserve the degree of deference we have afforded to it. It cannot even handle the Donbas, fer crissakes. Time for Russia to come to terms with its situation and start making hard decisions on internal reforms. History of the last 500 years shows over and over that Russia has been poked in the nose and realized it is "behind the times." Time for them to grow up, or suffer the consequences of their backwardness.
This is circular reasoning. We intervene because they can't support their sphere of influence, but they could support it just fine if we didn't intervene.

We did not start our aid package until AFTER the Ukes stopped the initial Russian invasion. In other words, we were prepared to let Russia have it if they could take it. They couldn't. So here we are.

Nations in the shatterzone will calculate on when/if/how much to step outside traditional influence to see outside aid. And that outside aid will always calculate odds….assess risk…can the traditional power actually hold onto the area?
Russia can't.
They're going to lose.
This is good.
Makes no sense at all to help them consolidate anything when they are trying to disrupt us all over the world. A weak despotic power make be a useful if strange bedfellows in war against a common enemy, but it is no good partner in peace.


So it's not that they can't support their sphere of influence, it's that it "makes no sense" to let them. What are they doing to disrupt us all over the world?
a very long list of things you well know, to include supporting Iran, NK, allying with China, etc.... That's what the weak have to do - disrupt the existing order.

It indeed makes no sense to prop up an ostensibly great power which really isn't just to....what? To what end? By your logic, we should be helping Russia roll over Ukraine, just so...what? Satisfy romantic Russian visions of the way things should be? I mean, how can you look at what Russia did in Ukraine and make the case they are able to "control their sphere of influence?"

It is your thinking with makes no sense. A better case can be made for helping Ukraine become the dominant power in Eurasia.

Then if I understand you, Russia is only entitled to a sphere of influence if they can support it and if they don't act outside of it, even by maintaining informal "alliances" like the one with China.

How does that principle apply to us? If we choose to act in a distant region where Russia has an interest, like Syria for example, do we forfeit our right to security against threats near our own borders?
When was the last time we invaded Mexico or Canada?? 1850's? Even Cuba, we could have invaded several different times but didn't. You think Russia shows that restraint? Using your logic in Ukraine, it is all right for us to invade Mexico and create a buffer so we feel more comfortable.

The times we have gone into other Nations militarily Russia, China too for that matter, didn't think twice supporting our opponents. (See N Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and others)
We invaded Mexico multiple times...including occupying their largest port at Veracruz in 1914

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Veracruz

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/the-tampico-affair-how-mexico-saw-the-us-1914-invasion/

Not to mention that one of the main reasons there is a Dominion of Canada today is the formerly independent provinces in upper and lower canada were terrified watching what the USA did to the Mexico in the 1840s and to its own Southern break away states in the 1860s. "The original Fathers of Confederation are those delegates who attended the conferences held at Charlottetown and Quebec in 1864 or in London, United Kingdom, in 1866, leading to Confederation". Not surprising that Canada joined together right as the war to the South of them was going on. For over 100 years the largest military concentration of British imperial troops outside of India (the jewel of the Empire) was in Canada...to guard against the military power of the United States.

[The calm didn't last long. In 1861, during the Civil War, the U.S. Navy arrested two Confederate diplomats traveling to Britain which had remained neutral on a British ship, the Trent. Both sides bristled, the governor general of Canada ordered troops to the border and the British accused the U.S. secretary of state of masterminding the whole affair as an excuse to invade Canadian territory. (Canadians had watched that "annexation" of Texas pretty closely.) Eventually, Lincoln decided that one war was enough for the moment and released the Confederate envoys-narrowly averting a military clash.]

And of course we not only were involve in Cuban internal politics since its independence from Spain (a war of independence we fought for them) but we staged in Bay of Pig invasion to help over throw the communist government of Cuba in 1961

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion

We have not hesitated in project power in our local sphere of influence in North and South America when it was felt there was a need.
Speechless that you could make an equivalency here.
Did we ever invade Mexico to stay?
Did we annex Veracruz?

Are you not aware of the circumstances that tipped us into participation in WWI?
Ever heard of the Zimmerman telegram?
Doesn't that little tidbit put Veracruz into a different light?



False equivalence?

FLBear asked when was the last time we invaded mexico, canada, or cuba.

I gave him the relevant dates.

I made no argument or statement as to the justification or wisdom of those invasions/interventions.
The proper answer is, we've never invaded them with the intention of including them into our union.

Well we certainly invaded parts of Mexico & Canada with the intention of placing them in our union (or large parts of them in our union)...some times successfully and some times not so successfully.

https://www.history.com/news/how-u-s-forces-failed-to-conquer-canada-200-years-ago

In both the revolutionary war and the war of 1812 the U.S. tried to conquer Canada and bring it into the Federal Union.

Obviously we know that Mexico was forced the cede half its territory to the United States.... "55 percent of its territory, including the present-day states California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, and parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming"

So while there has been not real invasion with the intent to annex these areas for over 130 years....we can't pretend there were never any instances where this happened.
You badly misapply history to fit the "American Imperialist" narrative.

WHY was Mexico forced to cede territory to us?
They lost a war with us.
WHY did that war happen?
Mexico tried to enforce territorial claims NORTH of the Rio Grande.
HOW did Mexico try to enforce those claims?
They attacked a US military unit in sovereign US Territory.

We actually offered to PAY them for the disputed territory (and more).
They refused.
Then they attacked.
Then we won.
So, WE are the oppressors?
Did we send in little green men?
Did we just invade and take it all (like Russia did in Ukraine?)

No.
Of course not.
Congress approved a Declaration of War after a Mexican attack on US military units on US soil.

Again,

You have to place words in my mouth in order to have an argument.

I never said the USA was an "imperialist" power toward Canada or Mexico.

The question was asked when the USA invaded Canada or Mexico. And if it was ever contemplated to have all or parts of these nations join the Federal Union.

I gave the relevant dates and said yes....some parts of Mexico were brought in to the USA as States. And that there was in fact discussion all through the 1800s about Canada possibly joining the USA.


So instead of just accepting the true of these statements you run some defense of a position I never took...."muh Mexico lost land because it lost a war with the USA!" Uh I never said or implied anything different.

p.s.

If you want me to take a position on these things.... I personally think Polk was betrayed by his negotiator in Mexico. We almost got all of modern Northern Mexico (Baja California, Baja California Sur...maybe all or parts of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Len, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas) but instead he undermined the negotiations and settled for far far less.

[Trist's negotiation was controversial among expansionist Democrats since he had ignored Polk's instructions and settled on a smaller cession of Mexican territory than many expansionists wanted and felt he could have obtained. A part of this instruction was to specifically include Baja California. However, as part of the negotiations, Trist drew the line directly west from Yuma to Tijuana/San Diego instead of from Yuma south to the Gulf of California, which left all of Baja California a part of Mexico, and Polk was furious. In the end, Polk reluctantly approved the treaty since he wanted to have it signed, sealed, and delivered to Congress during his presidency. Trist later commented on the treaty:
Quote:

"My feeling of shame as an American was far stronger than the Mexicans' could be
Upon return to Washington, Trist was immediately fired for his insubordination, and his expenses since the time of the recall order were not paid. After his dismissal, Trist moved to West Chester, Pennsylvania, and then to Philadelphia, where he worked as a railroad clerk and paymaster. Trist finally recovered his expenses in 1871, at the urging of Senator Charles Sumner

Trist supported Republican Abraham Lincoln for U.S. president in 1860]

Trist decided to let is own personal views be placed above the will of the American people and the elected President's own specific instructions.

I mean how many times have we seen that in modern times were career bureaucrat decide they know what is best.

So instead of the USA getting most of Northern Mexico (basically uninhabited/low population at the time) we got far less than what we could have.
Those career bureaucrats spend their lives working on areas and develop expertise that the majority of elected officials need.

Ever talk to an elected official? They are expected to vote on a myriad of things without any knowledge about them. Even their ideas, which may be great, they have no idea how to actually get it done. That is what the bureaucracy you make fun of excels at doing. Try getting something accomplished without the supporting structure, you end up Trump. Just yelling.

So they never make mistakes or fail to carry out the lawful orders and instructions of their constitutionally elected superiors?

Man you love and trust the Federal government and its ever growing army of bureaucratic workers almost as much as Trey and Whiterock

But I do love you swinging in to defend helpless Nick Trist (and the honor of Federal bureaucrats everywhere) he obviously knew better than the President of the United States.

[the British commissioner Dr. Richard Robert Madden wrote U.S. abolitionists about Trist's misuse of his post to promote slavery and earn fees from the fraudulent document schemes. A pamphlet detailing Madden's charges was published shortly before the beginning of the sensational Amistad affair, when Africans sold into slavery in Cuba managed to seize control of the schooner in which they were being transported from Havana to provincial plantations. Madden travelled to the United States, where he gave expert testimony in the trial of the Amistad Africans, explaining how false documents were used to make it appear the Africans were Cuban-born slaves.

This exposure of the activities of the U.S. Consul General, coupled with the complaints of ship captains, caused a Congressional investigation and eventual recall of Trist in 1840.]

[President Polk was unhappy with his envoy's conduct which prompted him to order Trist to return to the United States. General Winfield Scott was also unhappy with Trist's presence in Mexico...
However, the wily diplomat ignored the instructions to leave Mexico. He wrote a 65-page letter back to Washington, D.C. explaining his reasons for staying in Mexico]


Trust, no just the millions of thankless professionals that get you water, roads, air travel, products from overseas, pipe away your **** (literally), deal with waste, try to protect the food supply, law enforcement, run prisons, try to manage the border etc...

You seem to think this stuff just happens.


Yes yes

Instead of dealing with the specifics of this off the reservation diplomat you have decided to use this thread to mount your own pulpit about the virtues of American bureaucrats.

Yes many do fine work. One uncle of mine worked in Texas government for 40 years.

Thank you Mr. White Knight


When I do it I am a white knight? Have your posts are trying to be a white knight against any action the US takes!

lol I just defended the Mexican-American war and said that the USA should have gotten MORE land if not for the actions of a incompetent career bureaucrat who ignored instructions to get more land from the Mexican government.

Oh and also happened to be a forger of slave documents as well.

Are you still on this form defending every bureaucrat in the Federal government and every action the US foreign policy establishment and secret alphabet agencies make?

You defend every action the D.C. elite take.....so if you hear any criticism you immediately think that person is as 100% devoted to partisan loyalty as you are but just in reverse.

I see plenty of actions the USA has done that are very good...and some that were wrong...and even more that were just bungled from the get go.

You on the other had a cultist and slavish trust in all things touching on governmental power.
Ok fair point.

In the modern era, you seem to be a white knight against the US policies of the last 75 years. Better?

I think US policy in Korea and Europe during the Cold War made complete sense.

Want to try again...or are you tired of trying to win internet arguments by making up straw man views and attributing them to me?
My perception of your view of the last 50 years has been to side against US policy... : )
Yes, your flawed perception.

50 years ago was 1973....there was plenty going on in US policy then that I agreed with and plenty I disagreed with. I also was not yet even born

Strong anti-Communism was something I would have agreed with....the disaster and incompetence of the Vietnam war was was not.

I assume you are still defending US policy decisions on Vietnam now 50 years on? Or are you willing to admit that the brain trust in D.C. can and does make horrible decisions?
Redbrickbear
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whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

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Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






I feel quite sure the international community will work to restore the demographic profile of Donbas to what it was in 2013, meaning return of displaced Ukrainians who lived there before Russia invaded.

You again use "language" in a way that is synonymous with "ethnicity." About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language. They, in fact, are Ukrainians, not Russians, and the war has only served to make them identify MORE Ukrainian.

You do realize, don't you, that you are basing your entire argument on Russian propaganda?
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:


diplomatic shot across the bow. It allows State Dept to triangulate rather than be the bad guy all the time. Can be very effective.
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

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Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism
In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?








As for 2001 or whatever date. When Ukraine became sovereign and that territory was part of their Nation, it is Ukraine. You seem to be making up reasons to give that area to Russia. Why? I can't figure out, you seem to be a fan of Putins.

Why do you want to encourage a war that has been going on for 8+ years in the Donbas to go on even longer. I can't figure it out.

This area is a rusting out post-industrial ex-coal field with less value than our rust belt or West Virginia.

The populace has kept up a near decade long fight to break off from Kyiv...yet we are supposed to continue to pretend this movement has no legitimacy among the rank and file citizens.

Not to mention the leadership in D.C. has supported just about every secessionist movement you can image over the past 30 years (East Timor, South Sudan, Kosovo) but now we are supposed to pretend that this secessionist movement in Donbas is where we draw the line?

This war has of course now escalated to being nation wide....300,000+ casualties and rising...along with costing the U.S. tax payers more than 100 BILLION dollars!

In order to help Kyiv keep Donbas are we willing to turn this into general large scale European war (possibly world wide)

Why?
This has been explained to you. Your argument here is that if we just gave Hitler the Sudetentland, we will have "peace in our time."

The way to stop a general large scale war in Europe is NOT to appease Russia by giving it pieces of a sovereign country it invaded. The way to stop a general large scale war in Europe is to defeat Russia in Ukraine, to force Russia to keep Russian armies in Russia.




whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

Quote:

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Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?








As for 2001 or whatever date. When Ukraine became sovereign and that territory was part of their Nation, it is Ukraine. You seem to be making up reasons to give that area to Russia. Why? I can't figure out, you seem to be a fan of Putins.

Why do you want to encourage a war that has been going on for 8+ years in the Donbas to go on even longer. I can't figure it out.

This area is a rusting out post-industrial ex-coal field with less value than our rust belt or West Virginia.

The populace has kept up a near decade long fight to break off from Kyiv...yet we are supposed to continue to pretend this movement has no legitimacy among the rank and file citizens.

Not to mention the leadership in D.C. has supported just about every secessionist movement you can image over the past 30 years (East Timor, South Sudan, Kosovo) but now we are supposed to pretend that this secessionist movement in Donbas is where we draw the line?

This war has of course now escalated to being nation wide....300,000+ casualties and rising...along with costing the U.S. tax payers more than 100 BILLION dollars!

In order to help Kyiv keep Donbas are we willing to turn this into general large scale European war (possibly world wide)

Why?
Because Ukraine believes it is worth fighting and it is THEIR Nation.
Because Putin can't be allowed to take territory he wants because he wants
International borders have to be respected and have been in the modern era until both Russia and China.


Say what you will about US wars, but we leave. Everywhere, in the modern era, we left. If there is one place that I think we screwed people it is Hawaii. Even there, make the situation right but the US is not making Hawaii a Kingdom again!
1. Why should we be paying for it? Why is the secession of the Donbas something we are willing to help fight against and pay tax payer money to prevent....but we supported the secession of Kosovo, East Timor, and South Sudan.

2. We leave places because thank God the American people demand it. We can get suckered into supporting these foreign interventions and adventurism for a little while but the people eventually demand it ends. If we left it up to the ghouls in D.C. we would still be in Afghanistan today.

Thank God for the common sense of the American people!
Indeed! Polling is very clear that the American people support the policy of helping Ukraine win the war against Russia.

Donbas is not even close to comparable to the countries you mentioned, for one key point: There was no secession movement. The secession of Donbas is not something the people of Donbas wanted. It is something Russia wanted, wanted so badly they undertook special operations to destabilize it, then invaded to take it.

That highlights the flawed premise underlying your entire argument = you have accepted Russian propaganda as fact. No matter how deeply you may feel about this, at the root of it all, your argument is flawed by that fatal weakness.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

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Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism
In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?








As for 2001 or whatever date. When Ukraine became sovereign and that territory was part of their Nation, it is Ukraine. You seem to be making up reasons to give that area to Russia. Why? I can't figure out, you seem to be a fan of Putins.

Why do you want to encourage a war that has been going on for 8+ years in the Donbas to go on even longer. I can't figure it out.

This area is a rusting out post-industrial ex-coal field with less value than our rust belt or West Virginia.

The populace has kept up a near decade long fight to break off from Kyiv...yet we are supposed to continue to pretend this movement has no legitimacy among the rank and file citizens.

Not to mention the leadership in D.C. has supported just about every secessionist movement you can image over the past 30 years (East Timor, South Sudan, Kosovo) but now we are supposed to pretend that this secessionist movement in Donbas is where we draw the line?

This war has of course now escalated to being nation wide....300,000+ casualties and rising...along with costing the U.S. tax payers more than 100 BILLION dollars!

In order to help Kyiv keep Donbas are we willing to turn this into general large scale European war (possibly world wide)

Why?
This has been explained to you. Your argument here is that if we just gave Hitler the Sudetentland, we will have "peace in our time."

The way to stop a general large scale war in Europe is NOT to appease Russia by giving it pieces of a sovereign country it invaded. The way to stop a general large scale war in Europe is to defeat Russia in Ukraine, to force Russia to keep Russian armies in Russia.





One might also ask is if its helpful to needlessly compare every geo-political situation in the world to 1938 and Czechoslovakia?

This might be appealing to certain boomers but its a myopic view at best.

Lets not even go down the rabbit hole of having to school you that Prime Minister Chamberlain was right not to got to war with Germany over the Sudetenland in '38....Britain was in no position to wage war at that date.

And comparing every dictator and strong man in history to Hitler is something for a classroom of activists at ut-austin to do....not something that is going to sway people who actual read history.

Waving the bloody red shirt of the sudenland after almost 90 years is foolish, a gross distortion of modern events, and one might even say propagandist.

Its always 1938 to some people...the enemy is always Hitler...and the only way to secure "peace" is preemptive war.
Sam Lowry
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

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Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed the number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

.
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed that number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856


What's also interesting is that almost half of the citizens of Crimea voted AGAINST independence for Ukraine in 1991....a time of huge positive feelings about independence in the former USSR and massive disgust with the old Soviet Union and its ruling class.

Yea as a region it was the most pro-staying in the Soviet Union....most pro-Moscow area of modern Ukraine and the most pro-Russian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Yet we are supposed to believe that its become more Ukrainian nationalist over the years and not more pro-Russian.
Sam Lowry
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?








As for 2001 or whatever date. When Ukraine became sovereign and that territory was part of their Nation, it is Ukraine. You seem to be making up reasons to give that area to Russia. Why? I can't figure out, you seem to be a fan of Putins.

Why do you want to encourage a war that has been going on for 8+ years in the Donbas to go on even longer. I can't figure it out.

This area is a rusting out post-industrial ex-coal field with less value than our rust belt or West Virginia.

The populace has kept up a near decade long fight to break off from Kyiv...yet we are supposed to continue to pretend this movement has no legitimacy among the rank and file citizens.

Not to mention the leadership in D.C. has supported just about every secessionist movement you can image over the past 30 years (East Timor, South Sudan, Kosovo) but now we are supposed to pretend that this secessionist movement in Donbas is where we draw the line?

This war has of course now escalated to being nation wide....300,000+ casualties and rising...along with costing the U.S. tax payers more than 100 BILLION dollars!

In order to help Kyiv keep Donbas are we willing to turn this into general large scale European war (possibly world wide)

Why?
Because Ukraine believes it is worth fighting and it is THEIR Nation.
Because Putin can't be allowed to take territory he wants because he wants
International borders have to be respected and have been in the modern era until both Russia and China.


Say what you will about US wars, but we leave. Everywhere, in the modern era, we left. If there is one place that I think we screwed people it is Hawaii. Even there, make the situation right but the US is not making Hawaii a Kingdom again!
1. Why should we be paying for it? Why is the secession of the Donbas something we are willing to help fight against and pay tax payer money to prevent....but we supported the secession of Kosovo, East Timor, and South Sudan.

2. We leave places because thank God the American people demand it. We can get suckered into supporting these foreign interventions and adventurism for a little while but the people eventually demand it ends. If we left it up to the ghouls in D.C. we would still be in Afghanistan today.

Thank God for the common sense of the American people!
Indeed! Polling is very clear that the American people support the policy of helping Ukraine win the war against Russia.

Donbas is not even close to comparable to the countries you mentioned, for one key point: There was no secession movement. The secession of Donbas is not something the people of Donbas wanted. It is something Russia wanted, wanted so badly they undertook special operations to destabilize it, then invaded to take it.

That highlights the flawed premise underlying your entire argument = you have accepted Russian propaganda as fact. No matter how deeply you may feel about this, at the root of it all, your argument is flawed by that fatal weakness.
According to polls administered from both Kiev and the Donbas, close to 30% of Donbas residents supported secession and annexation by Russia. Another 40-50 percent supported federalization, autonomy, or in a few cases outright independence. A poll by the Washington Post and the Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung on the day of the referendum showed over 95% support for independence among likely voters and 65% support among all respondents. This is roughly consistent with the results of the referendum, imperfect though it may have been.

Of course the USA has never been one to let public opinion stand in the way of spreading "democracy."
Bear8084
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?








As for 2001 or whatever date. When Ukraine became sovereign and that territory was part of their Nation, it is Ukraine. You seem to be making up reasons to give that area to Russia. Why? I can't figure out, you seem to be a fan of Putins.

Why do you want to encourage a war that has been going on for 8+ years in the Donbas to go on even longer. I can't figure it out.

This area is a rusting out post-industrial ex-coal field with less value than our rust belt or West Virginia.

The populace has kept up a near decade long fight to break off from Kyiv...yet we are supposed to continue to pretend this movement has no legitimacy among the rank and file citizens.

Not to mention the leadership in D.C. has supported just about every secessionist movement you can image over the past 30 years (East Timor, South Sudan, Kosovo) but now we are supposed to pretend that this secessionist movement in Donbas is where we draw the line?

This war has of course now escalated to being nation wide....300,000+ casualties and rising...along with costing the U.S. tax payers more than 100 BILLION dollars!

In order to help Kyiv keep Donbas are we willing to turn this into general large scale European war (possibly world wide)

Why?
Because Ukraine believes it is worth fighting and it is THEIR Nation.
Because Putin can't be allowed to take territory he wants because he wants
International borders have to be respected and have been in the modern era until both Russia and China.


Say what you will about US wars, but we leave. Everywhere, in the modern era, we left. If there is one place that I think we screwed people it is Hawaii. Even there, make the situation right but the US is not making Hawaii a Kingdom again!
1. Why should we be paying for it? Why is the secession of the Donbas something we are willing to help fight against and pay tax payer money to prevent....but we supported the secession of Kosovo, East Timor, and South Sudan.

2. We leave places because thank God the American people demand it. We can get suckered into supporting these foreign interventions and adventurism for a little while but the people eventually demand it ends. If we left it up to the ghouls in D.C. we would still be in Afghanistan today.

Thank God for the common sense of the American people!
Indeed! Polling is very clear that the American people support the policy of helping Ukraine win the war against Russia.

Donbas is not even close to comparable to the countries you mentioned, for one key point: There was no secession movement. The secession of Donbas is not something the people of Donbas wanted. It is something Russia wanted, wanted so badly they undertook special operations to destabilize it, then invaded to take it.

That highlights the flawed premise underlying your entire argument = you have accepted Russian propaganda as fact. No matter how deeply you may feel about this, at the root of it all, your argument is flawed by that fatal weakness.
Also 100% correct.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

.
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed that number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856


What's also interesting is that almost half of the citizens of Crimea voted AGAINST independence for Ukraine in 1991....a time of huge positive feelings about independence in the former USSR and massive disgust with the old Soviet Union and its ruling class.

Yea as a region it was the most pro-staying in the Soviet Union....most pro-Moscow area of modern Ukraine and the most pro-Russian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Yet we are supposed to believe that its become more Ukrainian nationalist over the years and not more pro-Russian.
Seriously, can you give me any reasons why people would want to be under Russian control? Comparing life in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania to Moscow. There is no logical reason for what you say. They are pining for Russian rule??? That seems above board to you based on the last 100 years or so?
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

.
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed that number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856


What's also interesting is that almost half of the citizens of Crimea voted AGAINST independence for Ukraine in 1991....a time of huge positive feelings about independence in the former USSR and massive disgust with the old Soviet Union and its ruling class.

Yea as a region it was the most pro-staying in the Soviet Union....most pro-Moscow area of modern Ukraine and the most pro-Russian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Yet we are supposed to believe that its become more Ukrainian nationalist over the years and not more pro-Russian.
Seriously, can you give me any reasons why people would want to be under Russian control? Comparing life in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania to Moscow. There is no logical reason for what you say. They are pining for Russian rule??? That seems above board to you based on the last 100 years or so?

Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? of course not

But we have to ask ourselves if staging coups in say Myanmar, or funding insurgencies in Tibet, or fighting a potential proxy wars in Taiwan would be in the best interests of world peace and the American people.

Luckily for Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania they are in NATO and in the EU.....they are not and will never be under Russian control.

But Ukraine is not in NATO or the EU.
ron.reagan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

.
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed that number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856


What's also interesting is that almost half of the citizens of Crimea voted AGAINST independence for Ukraine in 1991....a time of huge positive feelings about independence in the former USSR and massive disgust with the old Soviet Union and its ruling class.

Yea as a region it was the most pro-staying in the Soviet Union....most pro-Moscow area of modern Ukraine and the most pro-Russian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Yet we are supposed to believe that its become more Ukrainian nationalist over the years and not more pro-Russian.
Seriously, can you give me any reasons why people would want to be under Russian control? Comparing life in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania to Moscow. There is no logical reason for what you say. They are pining for Russian rule??? That seems above board to you based on the last 100 years or so?

Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? of course not

But we have to ask ourselves if staging coups in say Myanmar, or funding insurgencies in Tibet, or fighting a potential proxy was in Taiwan would be in the best interests of world peace and the American people.

Luckily for Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania they are in NATO and in the EU.....they are not and will never be under Russian control.

But Ukraine is not in NATO or the EU.
"Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? "

Are you seriously this moronic? Have you ever been to China? The cities are amazing. It just sucks to be poor there just like it does in the US.
trey3216
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

.
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed that number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856


What's also interesting is that almost half of the citizens of Crimea voted AGAINST independence for Ukraine in 1991....a time of huge positive feelings about independence in the former USSR and massive disgust with the old Soviet Union and its ruling class.

Yea as a region it was the most pro-staying in the Soviet Union....most pro-Moscow area of modern Ukraine and the most pro-Russian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Yet we are supposed to believe that its become more Ukrainian nationalist over the years and not more pro-Russian.
Seriously, can you give me any reasons why people would want to be under Russian control? Comparing life in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania to Moscow. There is no logical reason for what you say. They are pining for Russian rule??? That seems above board to you based on the last 100 years or so?

Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? of course not

But we have to ask ourselves if staging coups in say Myanmar, or funding insurgencies in Tibet, or fighting a potential proxy was in Taiwan would be in the best interests of world peace and the American people.

Luckily for Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania they are in NATO and in the EU.....they are not and will never be under Russian control.

But Ukraine is not in NATO or the EU.
Taiwan wouldn't be a proxy war. It'd be defending essential building blocks/technology to operate a modern society.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

.
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed that number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856


What's also interesting is that almost half of the citizens of Crimea voted AGAINST independence for Ukraine in 1991....a time of huge positive feelings about independence in the former USSR and massive disgust with the old Soviet Union and its ruling class.

Yea as a region it was the most pro-staying in the Soviet Union....most pro-Moscow area of modern Ukraine and the most pro-Russian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Yet we are supposed to believe that its become more Ukrainian nationalist over the years and not more pro-Russian.
Seriously, can you give me any reasons why people would want to be under Russian control? Comparing life in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania to Moscow. There is no logical reason for what you say. They are pining for Russian rule??? That seems above board to you based on the last 100 years or so?

Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? of course not

But we have to ask ourselves if staging coups in say Myanmar, or funding insurgencies in Tibet, or fighting a potential proxy was in Taiwan would be in the best interests of world peace and the American people.

Luckily for Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania they are in NATO and in the EU.....they are not and will never be under Russian control.

But Ukraine is not in NATO or the EU.
Here we diverge.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

.
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed that number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856


What's also interesting is that almost half of the citizens of Crimea voted AGAINST independence for Ukraine in 1991....a time of huge positive feelings about independence in the former USSR and massive disgust with the old Soviet Union and its ruling class.

Yea as a region it was the most pro-staying in the Soviet Union....most pro-Moscow area of modern Ukraine and the most pro-Russian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Yet we are supposed to believe that its become more Ukrainian nationalist over the years and not more pro-Russian.
Seriously, can you give me any reasons why people would want to be under Russian control? Comparing life in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania to Moscow. There is no logical reason for what you say. They are pining for Russian rule??? That seems above board to you based on the last 100 years or so?

Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? of course not

But we have to ask ourselves if staging coups in say Myanmar, or funding insurgencies in Tibet, or fighting a potential proxy was in Taiwan would be in the best interests of world peace and the American people.

Luckily for Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania they are in NATO and in the EU.....they are not and will never be under Russian control.

But Ukraine is not in NATO or the EU.
"Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? "

Are you seriously this moronic? Have you ever been to China? The cities are amazing. It just sucks to be poor there just like it does in the US.


Wanting to live under Chinese communist rule was not the take I was expecting on this forum...but ok
ron.reagan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

.
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed that number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856


What's also interesting is that almost half of the citizens of Crimea voted AGAINST independence for Ukraine in 1991....a time of huge positive feelings about independence in the former USSR and massive disgust with the old Soviet Union and its ruling class.

Yea as a region it was the most pro-staying in the Soviet Union....most pro-Moscow area of modern Ukraine and the most pro-Russian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Yet we are supposed to believe that its become more Ukrainian nationalist over the years and not more pro-Russian.
Seriously, can you give me any reasons why people would want to be under Russian control? Comparing life in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania to Moscow. There is no logical reason for what you say. They are pining for Russian rule??? That seems above board to you based on the last 100 years or so?

Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? of course not

But we have to ask ourselves if staging coups in say Myanmar, or funding insurgencies in Tibet, or fighting a potential proxy was in Taiwan would be in the best interests of world peace and the American people.

Luckily for Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania they are in NATO and in the EU.....they are not and will never be under Russian control.

But Ukraine is not in NATO or the EU.
"Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? "

Are you seriously this moronic? Have you ever been to China? The cities are amazing. It just sucks to be poor there just like it does in the US.


Wanting to live under Chinese communist rule was not the take I was expecting on this forum...but ok
500 Chinese billionaires love "communism". If you weren't expecting that I'd suggest doing a bit of world travel.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

.
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Polling shows the invasion overwhelmingly galvanized Ukrainian nationalism

In Central & Western Ukraine? Certainly.

No one has any proof that it galvanized any sort of Ukrainian nationalism in Crimea or Donbas....if anything those areas have had substantial uptick in russian ethnic/cultural/national identification...and a corresponding out flight of those who would have considered themselves staunchly Ukrainian in identity.

Would make a good case for an area like Kharkiv or Odessa being more Ukrainian in identity today than it would have been just 2 years ago.
Makes it easy when Russia was just able to move a bunch of Russians loyal to Russia into the area, and arm them heavily to fight for a breakaway. Or directly send in Russian special forces units and Russian Paramilitary groups to help the breakaway factions who were getting the crap beat out of them by the Ukrainian military.

Let the circle be unbroken.
I won't argue with that...but what do you suggest the West do about that? Use force to expel millions of ethnic russians from Crimea and Donbas?

The Poles (with Stalin's help) were able to expel millions of ethnic Germans from East Prussia after world war II...only took systemic mass murder, industrial scale rape, and several years to ethnically cleansing the area and make sure it would forever remain Polish.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)

Are the elite in D.C. planning that? If not then at some point we have to accept that the current citizens of Crimea just don't want to be ruled from Kyiv.

Similar situation would be Tibet....does it belong in a very real sense to the natives of Tibet...absolutely. But lots of Han live there now. At what point in geo-political terms do you have to accept the situation on the ground?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinicization_of_Tibet

Same could be said for Palestine for that matter....once a new population has been established on the ground its hard to change things.
Some facts:
-- pre-war population of the Donbas was approx 3.6m.
-- About 60% identified as Ukrainian; 40% as Russian.
--Roughly 1-in-4 of those "Ukrainians" spoke Russian as primary language.

A 6-digit number of the Ukrainians have fled for refugee status. A six-digit number of Ukrainians were hauled off to distant parts of Russia. And some Russians have moved in. So the numbers have probably flipped.

The post-war scenario will involve international support for return of all Ukrainian residents to the Donbas, to include cash incentives. I'm sure Ukraine will offer amnesty to Ukrainian citizens, but not Russian citizens. Further, we can expect life for Russian nationals in Donbas to be pretty tough in the post-war, due to social ostracization. Knowing what they are likely to face, a great number of them will voluntarily repatriate.

Donbas could end up, 10 years from the end of the war, 75-25 Ukrainian.

You can bet Ukranian and International policy will, below the surface, be working toward a goal like that pretty hard, with juicy carrots and very soft sticks, as it will make it far harder for Russia to repeat the "little green men" gambit they used to destabilize the Donbas. The whole "Donbas should be part of Russia anyway" argument was weak to start with, but it was seized by war opponent with such gusto, we have to drive a stake thru the heart of it if we are to avoid repeating the nightmare.

Interesting reading:
https://theconversation.com/most-people-in-separatist-held-areas-of-donbas-prefer-reintegration-with-ukraine-new-survey-124849




So you are in fact supporting the idea of forced demographic change in Donbas to make it a more pliant province of Kyiv.

At least you are not beating around the bush about it.

The ethnic russians have to go and the ethnic ukrainians have to be made the majority....by "cash incentives" or by means that are a little more brutal.

You would fit in well as a "security" advisor to the Likud party.
Ethnic Ukrainians already are the majority and were before Putin did his thing. Whiterock showed that earlier.
Slight majority...yes

At least if we are to go by the self declared census info.

[According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 57% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 55.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.]

[According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast]

He also said the demographic situation has changed since that time.

Lets play that out and assume it is in fact true.

Are you willing to use force to change the demographic profile of Donbas back to what it was in 2001?






About 14% of Ukrainians living in the Donbas in 2014 spoke Russian as a first language.
Not true. According to the most recent census (2001), Russian was the first language of 68% of Luhansk residents and 74% of Donetsk residents. At that time 29% of Ukrainians overall claimed Russian as their first language. A 2012 poll showed that number as high as 40%.

https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856


What's also interesting is that almost half of the citizens of Crimea voted AGAINST independence for Ukraine in 1991....a time of huge positive feelings about independence in the former USSR and massive disgust with the old Soviet Union and its ruling class.

Yea as a region it was the most pro-staying in the Soviet Union....most pro-Moscow area of modern Ukraine and the most pro-Russian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Yet we are supposed to believe that its become more Ukrainian nationalist over the years and not more pro-Russian.
Seriously, can you give me any reasons why people would want to be under Russian control? Comparing life in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania to Moscow. There is no logical reason for what you say. They are pining for Russian rule??? That seems above board to you based on the last 100 years or so?

Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? of course not

But we have to ask ourselves if staging coups in say Myanmar, or funding insurgencies in Tibet, or fighting a potential proxy was in Taiwan would be in the best interests of world peace and the American people.

Luckily for Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania they are in NATO and in the EU.....they are not and will never be under Russian control.

But Ukraine is not in NATO or the EU.
"Can you give me any reason why people would want to be under Chinese rule? "

Are you seriously this moronic? Have you ever been to China? The cities are amazing. It just sucks to be poor there just like it does in the US.


Wanting to live under Chinese communist rule was not the take I was expecting on this forum...but ok
500 Chinese billionaires love "communism". If you weren't expecting that I'd suggest doing a bit of world travel.

You shilling for one of the worlds most totalitarian political systems is what I was not expecting.

While you piss your panties about the big bad russians.

Let me guess you think of yourself as a progressive liberal?

You fly a Ukraine flag outside your house...defend the Chi-Coms on the internet....lol God I love your type
ron.reagan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ron.reagan said:

I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.

sigh....buddy I don't even know where to begin with you.

1. While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state...there is no evidence that most people like it. The constant protests against Chi-Com rule by the Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and Uyghurs would be evidence that millions and millions of people in China don't like living under that political-cultural system.

2. You get your panties in a bunch about putins authoritarian-kleptocratic state in Russia...and shill for a more aggressive and totalitarian system in China.

3. I don't live in Corsicana ... lol you also spelled it wrong.
ron.reagan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.

sigh....buddy I don't even know where to begin with you.

1. While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state...there is no evidence that most people like it. The constant protests against Chi-Com rule by the Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and Uyghurs would be evidence that millions and millions of people in China don't like living under that political-cultural system.

2. You get your panties in a bunch about putins authoritarian-kleptocratic state in Russia...and shill for a more aggressive and totalitarian system in China.

3. I don't live in Corsicana ... lol you also spelled it wrong.
"While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state."

thanks. That wasn't so hard was it
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.

sigh....buddy I don't even know where to begin with you.

1. While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state...there is no evidence that most people like it. The constant protests against Chi-Com rule by the Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and Uyghurs would be evidence that millions and millions of people in China don't like living under that political-cultural system.

2. You get your panties in a bunch about putins authoritarian-kleptocratic state in Russia...and shill for a more aggressive and totalitarian system in China.

3. I don't live in Corsicana ... lol you also spelled it wrong.
"While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state."

thanks. That wasn't so hard was it

You could always move there....but I bet you won't.

I bet you don't even live in a neighborhood that is less than 90% White.
trey3216
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.

sigh....buddy I don't even know where to begin with you.

1. While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state...there is no evidence that most people like it. The constant protests against Chi-Com rule by the Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and Uyghurs would be evidence that millions and millions of people in China don't like living under that political-cultural system.

2. You get your panties in a bunch about putins authoritarian-kleptocratic state in Russia...and shill for a more aggressive and totalitarian system in China.

3. I don't live in Corsicana ... lol you also spelled it wrong.
"While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state."

thanks. That wasn't so hard was it

they really don't though. They just tell people that so they don't have to watch their wife or child get shot in the back of the head for disobedience.

Or they're the ones in power getting to milk the rest of the paupers for all they have.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
trey3216 said:

ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.

sigh....buddy I don't even know where to begin with you.

1. While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state...there is no evidence that most people like it. The constant protests against Chi-Com rule by the Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and Uyghurs would be evidence that millions and millions of people in China don't like living under that political-cultural system.

2. You get your panties in a bunch about putins authoritarian-kleptocratic state in Russia...and shill for a more aggressive and totalitarian system in China.

3. I don't live in Corsicana ... lol you also spelled it wrong.
"While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state."

thanks. That wasn't so hard was it

they really don't though. They just tell people that so they don't have to watch their wife or child get shot in the back of the head for disobedience.

Or they're the ones in power getting to milk the rest of the paupers for all they have.

Not to mention even if they decide not to just liquidate you or your family...they can just go into your Wechat account or bank account and just steal all your money for being a "threat".




ron.reagan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
trey3216 said:

ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.

sigh....buddy I don't even know where to begin with you.

1. While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state...there is no evidence that most people like it. The constant protests against Chi-Com rule by the Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and Uyghurs would be evidence that millions and millions of people in China don't like living under that political-cultural system.

2. You get your panties in a bunch about putins authoritarian-kleptocratic state in Russia...and shill for a more aggressive and totalitarian system in China.

3. I don't live in Corsicana ... lol you also spelled it wrong.
"While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state."

thanks. That wasn't so hard was it

they really don't though. They just tell people that so they don't have to watch their wife or child get shot in the back of the head for disobedience.

Or they're the ones in power getting to milk the rest of the paupers for all they have.
"Or they're the ones in power getting to milk the rest of the paupers for all they have. "

Welcome to adulthood. This is how every country works.
KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ron.reagan said:

trey3216 said:

ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.

sigh....buddy I don't even know where to begin with you.

1. While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state...there is no evidence that most people like it. The constant protests against Chi-Com rule by the Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and Uyghurs would be evidence that millions and millions of people in China don't like living under that political-cultural system.

2. You get your panties in a bunch about putins authoritarian-kleptocratic state in Russia...and shill for a more aggressive and totalitarian system in China.

3. I don't live in Corsicana ... lol you also spelled it wrong.
"While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state."

thanks. That wasn't so hard was it

they really don't though. They just tell people that so they don't have to watch their wife or child get shot in the back of the head for disobedience.

Or they're the ones in power getting to milk the rest of the paupers for all they have.


Welcome to adulthood. This is how every country works.


What other countries have you been to for over a week ?

And no, staying in an all inclusive resort doesn't count as being in Mexico .
ron.reagan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

ron.reagan said:

trey3216 said:

ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.

sigh....buddy I don't even know where to begin with you.

1. While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state...there is no evidence that most people like it. The constant protests against Chi-Com rule by the Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and Uyghurs would be evidence that millions and millions of people in China don't like living under that political-cultural system.

2. You get your panties in a bunch about putins authoritarian-kleptocratic state in Russia...and shill for a more aggressive and totalitarian system in China.

3. I don't live in Corsicana ... lol you also spelled it wrong.
"While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state."

thanks. That wasn't so hard was it

they really don't though. They just tell people that so they don't have to watch their wife or child get shot in the back of the head for disobedience.

Or they're the ones in power getting to milk the rest of the paupers for all they have.


Welcome to adulthood. This is how every country works.


What other countries have you been to for over a week ?

And no, staying in an all inclusive resort doesn't count as being in Mexico .
Besides the military I've spent half my adult life in SK as I worked for Samsung for ~20 years.
KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ron.reagan said:

KaiBear said:

ron.reagan said:

trey3216 said:

ron.reagan said:

Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

I don't know what that was all about. I don't like China personally. Not everyone is a rich western Caucasian. Again, leave Corisicana some time.

sigh....buddy I don't even know where to begin with you.

1. While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state...there is no evidence that most people like it. The constant protests against Chi-Com rule by the Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and Uyghurs would be evidence that millions and millions of people in China don't like living under that political-cultural system.

2. You get your panties in a bunch about putins authoritarian-kleptocratic state in Russia...and shill for a more aggressive and totalitarian system in China.

3. I don't live in Corsicana ... lol you also spelled it wrong.
"While there may be some people who like living under a modern totalitarian surveillance state."

thanks. That wasn't so hard was it

they really don't though. They just tell people that so they don't have to watch their wife or child get shot in the back of the head for disobedience.

Or they're the ones in power getting to milk the rest of the paupers for all they have.


Welcome to adulthood. This is how every country works.


What other countries have you been to for over a week ?

And no, staying in an all inclusive resort doesn't count as being in Mexico .
Besides the military I've spent half my adult life in SK as I worked for Samsung for ~20 years.
Where were you stationed ? What branch ? Did you earn a CIB or just another glorified clerk ?
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