Surely, with these drone systems and another few hundred million dollars, the long-delayed counteroffensive that's failed for two months will suddenly make the Red part like the Red Sea!

My latest on @amconmag:https://t.co/8mKyBw3mfO

— Bradley Devlin (@bradleydevlin) August 2, 2023

Western media slowly beginning to prepare their audiences for reality...

Quote:

---

Weeks into Ukraine's highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly "sobering" assessments about Ukrainian forces' ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.

"They're still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it's extremely, highly unlikely," a senior western diplomat told CNN.

The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia's multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

"Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven't really gone through the first line," said a senior Western diplomat. "Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven't been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard."

Western officials also say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside Russian territory "to try and show Russian vulnerability," said a senior US military official.

These latest assessments represent a marked change from the optimism at the start of the counteroffensive. These officials say those expectations were "unrealistic" and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to begin peace negotiations, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions.

"Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy time," Quigley said.

Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations and results will spark a "blame game" among Ukrainian officials and their western supporters, which may create divisions within the alliance which has remained largely intact nearly two years into the war.

"The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us," said a senior western diplomat.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html

---

Russia takes Novoselivske. Heavy fighting at Kupiansk.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/9/7414817/

Sam Lowry said:

---

Russia takes Novoselivske. Heavy fighting at Kupiansk.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/9/7414817/

---

Uh oh.

You have linked to Russia's propaganda news service instead of one of the Western propaganda news services....

Redbrickbear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Russia takes Novoselivske. Heavy fighting at Kupiansk.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/9/7414817/

---

Uh oh.

You have linked to Russia's propaganda news service instead of one of the Western propaganda news services....

---

Isn't all "news" really someone's propaganda?

FLBear5630 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Russia takes Novoselivske. Heavy fighting at Kupiansk.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/9/7414817/

---

Uh oh.

You have linked to Russia's propaganda news service instead of one of the Western propaganda news services....

---

Isn't all "news" really someone's propaganda?

---

Joe Friday wept.

Oldbear83 said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Russia takes Novoselivske. Heavy fighting at Kupiansk.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/9/7414817/

---

Uh oh.

You have linked to Russia's propaganda news service instead of one of the Western propaganda news services....

---

Isn't all "news" really someone's propaganda?

---

Joe Friday wept.

---

Weep??? Joe Friday would go all out "Fallon Down" if he were around today!!

We definitely do not talk enough about the insane depopulation of Eastern Europe since 1990. Wars, aging, and emigration.

In 1990, Ukraine & Turkey were even. Turkey is now double Ukraine's pop.

For many countries this depopulation literally surpasses the death tolls of WWII. pic.twitter.com/WpErJ1o4xJ

— Marko Jukic (@mmjukic) August 10, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Russia takes Novoselivske. Heavy fighting at Kupiansk.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/9/7414817/

---

Uh oh.

You have linked to Russia's propaganda news service instead of one of the Western propaganda news services....

---

It's Ukrainska Pravda, not the Russian one.

Sam Lowry said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Russia takes Novoselivske. Heavy fighting at Kupiansk.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/9/7414817/

---

Uh oh.

You have linked to Russia's propaganda news service instead of one of the Western propaganda news services....

---

It's Ukrainska Pravda, not the Russian one.

---

It's not Pravda, it's Pravda.

CNN's John King:

Listening to Republican voters who are skeptical of support for Ukraine is "like watching the open of an old Tucker Carlson show..."

"They're good people...They go to Church! But they believe things that would break our fact-check machine...And they don't trust… pic.twitter.com/oVrKSRGTlK

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) August 10, 2023

House Republicans continue their dogged investigation of what Ukraine-related stuff Biden may or may not have been involved with during the Obama Administration eight years ago, while strangely declining to perform any comparable oversight of Biden's current war policy in Ukraine pic.twitter.com/qUY0QN9JNE

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) August 11, 2023

Sam Lowry said:

---

Russia takes Novoselivske. Heavy fighting at Kupiansk.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/9/7414817/

---

ISW is unable to visually confirm Russian claims: (see bolded portions...)

Russian Main Effort Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and reportedly advanced on August 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks north of Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk) and near Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk).[35] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces are trying to seize the initiative in the Kupyansk direction and that Ukrainian forces have significantly strengthened defenses in the area in recent days.[36] The Russian MoD claimed that assault detachments of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces improved their tactical situation along the front line during offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction.[37] Russian Western Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Sergey Zybinsky claimed that Russian elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) captured five Ukrainian strongholds near Vilshana (14km northeast of Kupyansk).[38] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized the initiative in the Kupyansk direction and are conducting offensive operations near Synkivka, Vilshana, and Lyman Pershi (11km northeast of Kupyansk).[39] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced to positions 7km away from Kupyansk in the Synkivka area and are also advancing in the direction of Kamianka (33km northeast of Kupyansk) and Dvorichna (16km northeast of Kupyansk).[40] Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces withdrew from unspecified positions in the Synkivka area and that Russian forces are advancing after Ukrainian forces retreated towards Kupyansk.[41] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced towards Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) between August 8 and 9 and that they hold positions within 4km of the R-79 (Kupyansk to Dvorichna) highway.[42] The milblogger speculated that Russian forces are attempting to capture positions along the Synkivka-Petropavlivka-Kucherivka line (up to 7km east of Kupyansk) and plan to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) along the R-79 highway to threaten Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk.[43] ISW has not yet observed visual evidence of Russian forces making these recent advances in the Kupyansk direction and currently assesses that the closest Russian positions to Kupyansk are roughly 10km northeast of the settlement.

Ukrainian officials announced mandatory evacuations for civilians in 53 settlements in Kupyansk Raion, Kharkiv Oblast on August 9 due to intensified Russian shelling and aviation strikes against settlements near the frontline.[44] Russian forces hold positions northeast of Kupyansk well within artillery range, and the intensification of Russian offensive operations in the area significantly increases the risk to civilians in Kupyansk and surrounding settlements. The evacuations in Kupyansk Raion do not necessarily indicate that Ukrainian forces expect Russian forces to make significant advances in the area, however.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful counterattacks northeast of Kupyansk on August 10. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Synkivka and the Mankivka tract (around 15km east of Kupyansk).[45]

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line on August 10 and advanced south of Kreminna. Geolocated footage published on August 9 indicates that Russian forces advanced south of Kreminna.[46] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian first lines of defense near Kreminna, but did not specify the nature or location of the breakthrough.[47] A Russian milblogger amplified footage on August 8 purporting to show Russian forces breaking through Ukrainian defensive lines in the Serebryanske forest area south of Kreminna.[48] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 2km into Ukrainian defenses and captured an unspecified number of Ukrainian strongholds and tactically significant heights, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.[49] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults near Nadiya (15km west of Svatove) and south of Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove).[50]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line but did not advance. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Novoselivkse, Luhansk Oblast, and Terny (16km northwest of Kreminna) and Bilohorivka (33km south of Kreminna) in Donetsk Oblast.[51]


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-10-2023

Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023

Maps are the interest here. ISW has overlaid the maps of the current front lines over the maps of the Russian fortifications. Uke has nearly chewed thru the most important portion of the Russian lines, in Zapo headed toward Tokmak.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1691263681546399744?s=46&t=ppMxCuHFBiF2n-S1riETzw

whiterock said:

---

Maps are the interest here. ISW has overlaid the maps of the current front lines over the maps of the Russian fortifications. Uke has nearly chewed thru the most important portion of the Russian lines, in Zapo headed toward Tokmak.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1691263681546399744?s=46&t=ppMxCuHFBiF2n-S1riETzw

---

For the Ukrainians' sake, let's hope not. If so their problems have just begun.

“Europe should take the lead in helping Ukraine!” Well, Europe is, if not taking the lead, running alongside us, and certain European countries are paying much more than any reasonable definition of their “fair share.”https://t.co/6ogpjd3gx7

— Jim Geraghty (@jimgeraghty) August 15, 2023

Ukraine not expecting F-16s before next year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

NEW: It is premature to make assessments about the overall success of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations occurring along several lines of advance toward several different apparent objectives.🧵(1/11)https://t.co/AdIgd6VchC pic.twitter.com/n1bdrRUt1g

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) August 19, 2023

Sam Lowry said:

---

Ukraine not expecting F-16s before next year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

---

A relative handful of F-16's will have zero impact on the strategic situation which currently favors Russia.

And from what I can ascertain these vaunted sanctions against Russia have likewise accomplished very little.

KaiBear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Ukraine not expecting F-16s before next year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

---

A relative handful of F-16's will have zero impact on the strategic situation which currently favors Russia.

And from what I can ascertain these vaunted sanctions against Russia have likewise accomplished very little.

---

When have positively said anything about a Government strategy?

FLBear5630 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Ukraine not expecting F-16s before next year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

---

A relative handful of F-16's will have zero impact on the strategic situation which currently favors Russia.

And from what I can ascertain these vaunted sanctions against Russia have likewise accomplished very little.

---

When have positively said anything about a Government strategy?

---

Have no idea what you are attempting to say here.

Please clarify.

KaiBear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Ukraine not expecting F-16s before next year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

---

A relative handful of F-16's will have zero impact on the strategic situation which currently favors Russia.

And from what I can ascertain these vaunted sanctions against Russia have likewise accomplished very little.

---

Well, the ruble has gone from 60-1 to 101-1. That's pretty bad.

They can't build any new technology

They're making significantly less money on oil and gas than they were and will for a long, long while.

They're having to buy equipment and ammo from North Korea.


This is going swimmingly for them

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Ukraine not expecting F-16s before next year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

---

A relative handful of F-16's will have zero impact on the strategic situation which currently favors Russia.

And from what I can ascertain these vaunted sanctions against Russia have likewise accomplished very little.

---

Well, the ruble has gone from 60-1 to 101-1. That's pretty bad.

They can't build any new technology

They're making significantly less money on oil and gas than they were and will for a long, long while.

They're having to buy equipment and ammo from North Korea.


This is going swimmingly for them

---

How is the Ukrainian economy doing after months of constant air attacks on their infrastructure and industrial capacity ?

Sam Lowry said:

---

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

---

As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.

First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.

Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.

Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.

Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.

KaiBear said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Ukraine not expecting F-16s before next year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

---

A relative handful of F-16's will have zero impact on the strategic situation which currently favors Russia.

And from what I can ascertain these vaunted sanctions against Russia have likewise accomplished very little.

---

When have positively said anything about a Government strategy?

---

Have no idea what you are attempting to say here.

Please clarify.

---

When has any Govt done something right in your view? What and when was the last positive thing any Govt has done?

To be clear, I believe there is anything a Govt can do to, short of disbanding itself, making itself smaller or lowering taxes, that you would agree.

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

---

As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.

First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.

Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.

Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.

Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.

---

The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."

The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.

Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

---

As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.

First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.

Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.

Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.

Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.

---

The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."

The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.

Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.

---

NATO will not let Russia win this. It won't be the US, it will be the Euros. We are already seeing F16s come into play. Next is a no fly zone.

FLBear5630 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Ukraine not expecting F-16s before next year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

---

A relative handful of F-16's will have zero impact on the strategic situation which currently favors Russia.

And from what I can ascertain these vaunted sanctions against Russia have likewise accomplished very little.

---

When have positively said anything about a Government strategy?

---

Have no idea what you are attempting to say here.

Please clarify.

---

When has any Govt done something right in your view? What and when was the last positive thing any Govt has done?

To be clear, I believe there is anything a Govt can do to, short of disbanding itself, making itself smaller or lowering taxes, that you would agree.

---

When the US moved their embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

---

As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.

First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.

Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.

Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.

Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.

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The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."

The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.

Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.

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NATO will not let Russia win this. It won't be the US, it will be the Euros. We are already seeing F16s come into play. Next is a no fly zone.

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Russia will win. Euros won't do anything. They wouldn't even be involved if it weren't for us.

If you advocate a no-fly zone then you're basically advocating nuclear war.

FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

---

As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.

First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.

Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.

Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.

Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.

---

The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."

The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.

Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.

---

NATO will not let Russia win this. It won't be the US, it will be the Euros. We are already seeing F16s come into play. Next is a no fly zone.

---

The F-16's are reportedly not due to enter the combat zone for several month apparently because of pilot training issues.

Highly unlikely a no fly zone will ever be imposed by NATO over Ukraine.

KaiBear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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KaiBear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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KaiBear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Ukraine not expecting F-16s before next year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

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A relative handful of F-16's will have zero impact on the strategic situation which currently favors Russia.

And from what I can ascertain these vaunted sanctions against Russia have likewise accomplished very little.

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When have positively said anything about a Government strategy?

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Have no idea what you are attempting to say here.

Please clarify.

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When has any Govt done something right in your view? What and when was the last positive thing any Govt has done?

To be clear, I believe there is anything a Govt can do to, short of disbanding itself, making itself smaller or lowering taxes, that you would agree.

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When the US moved their embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

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Ok, that's fair. I agreed with that move, as well.

Sam Lowry said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

---

As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.

First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.

Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.

Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.

Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.

---

The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."

The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.

Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.

---

NATO will not let Russia win this. It won't be the US, it will be the Euros. We are already seeing F16s come into play. Next is a no fly zone.

---

Russia will win. Euros won't do anything. They wouldn't even be involved if it weren't for us.

If you advocate a no-fly zone then you're basically advocating nuclear war.

---

Starting to hear the rattle...

NATO Has One Last Chance To End Russia's War on Ukraine - 19FortyFive

Opinion | Here Are 3 Ways to End the War in Ukraine. One Might Actually Work. - POLITICO

Defeat for Ukraine would be a global disaster. Nato must finally step in to stop Russia | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

---

As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.

First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.

Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.

Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.

Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.

---

The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."

The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.

Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.

---

LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:



You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."

Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."

All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.