whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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2024 Michigan GE:

Biden 47% (+2)
Trump 45%
.
Biden 43% (+3)
Trump 40%
Kennedy 7%
West 1%
Stein 1%

.@MorningConsult/@business, 708 RV, 4/8-15https://t.co/Yet5EDIS6I

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 1, 2024

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Biden leading in a key swing state. Not good.

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not a exactly a key swing state and that is the only one of the 7 and Biden has been slightly ahead in MIch for a while

It would be great if Trump took all 7 but its not necessary to get to 270

If he starts slipping in the other swings, that should raise an alarm to Trump camp

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It was a key victory in 2016 for Trump, and helped to propel him to the presidency.

Agreed it's not necessary if every other swing state goes Trump's way, but it's still very important.

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Well, let's look at history, then.

As of April 30 2016, Michigan state polls had Clinton leading Trump by an average of 48.0% to 37.5% (per RCP), But Trump won the state 47.50% to 47.27%

In April 2020, Michigan state polls had Biden leading Trump 46.5% to 41.0%, and Biden won the state 50.6% to 47.8%.

So Democrats ranged from underperforming by 0.7 points to overperforming by 4.1 points, while Trump ranged from overperforming by 6.8 points to overperforming by 9.8 points.

In any translation, a close race in Michigan now is advantage Trump.

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note your example highlights another factor = Trump usually outperforms his polling. He's a turnout machine, including with some large low-propensity turnout demographics.

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One factor a lot of people miss in polling, is shadow. That is, people look at Candidate A or B and see they are leading, and forget two important points:

1. The margin of error applies to each candidate, for a standard 3.5% MOE the leading candidate is not really secure unless he has more than twice the MOE for a lead.

2. The voters who do not express support for a candidate at a campaign mid-point will usually break towards one when they vote. The 2016 and 2020 elections are very different in that aspect - for 2016, 5.7% of the voters supported someone other than Trump or Clinton, while in 2020 only 1.7% of the voters supported someone other than Trump or Biden. We cannot say for certain at this point whether 2024 will follow the 2016 or 2020 path in terms of the undecided voters.

Joe Scarborough Blasts MSNBC Viewers ‘Too Stupid’ To See Campus Protests Hurting Biden’s Reelection: ‘Change to Another Channel’

“If you’re offended by this, please, I’m trying to help you. I don’t want Donald Trump to get elected. All right? I’m trying to help you. If you’re… pic.twitter.com/z853QIZicj

— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) May 2, 2024

Oldbear83 said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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2024 Michigan GE:

Biden 47% (+2)
Trump 45%
.
Biden 43% (+3)
Trump 40%
Kennedy 7%
West 1%
Stein 1%

.@MorningConsult/@business, 708 RV, 4/8-15https://t.co/Yet5EDIS6I

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 1, 2024

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Biden leading in a key swing state. Not good.

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not a exactly a key swing state and that is the only one of the 7 and Biden has been slightly ahead in MIch for a while

It would be great if Trump took all 7 but its not necessary to get to 270

If he starts slipping in the other swings, that should raise an alarm to Trump camp

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It was a key victory in 2016 for Trump, and helped to propel him to the presidency.

Agreed it's not necessary if every other swing state goes Trump's way, but it's still very important.

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Well, let's look at history, then.

As of April 30 2016, Michigan state polls had Clinton leading Trump by an average of 48.0% to 37.5% (per RCP), But Trump won the state 47.50% to 47.27%

In April 2020, Michigan state polls had Biden leading Trump 46.5% to 41.0%, and Biden won the state 50.6% to 47.8%.

So Democrats ranged from underperforming by 0.7 points to overperforming by 4.1 points, while Trump ranged from overperforming by 6.8 points to overperforming by 9.8 points.

In any translation, a close race in Michigan now is advantage Trump.

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note your example highlights another factor = Trump usually outperforms his polling. He's a turnout machine, including with some large low-propensity turnout demographics.

---

One factor a lot of people miss in polling, is shadow. That is, people look at Candidate A or B and see they are leading, and forget two important points:

1. The margin of error applies to each candidate, for a standard 3.5% MOE the leading candidate is not really secure unless he has more than twice the MOE for a lead.

2. The voters who do not express support for a candidate at a campaign mid-point will usually break towards one when they vote. The 2016 and 2020 elections are very different in that aspect - for 2016, 5.7% of the voters supported someone other than Trump or Clinton, while in 2020 only 1.7% of the voters supported someone other than Trump or Biden. We cannot say for certain at this point whether 2024 will follow the 2016 or 2020 path in terms of the undecided voters.

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polling at the moment consistently shows about 8pts of undecideds. That is enough to tip the election all the way over into a blowout either direction.

A couple of rules of thumb on how undecideds break:
*in an open seat, they tend to break roughly the way the polling looks. if one guy is up 49-46, the undecideds break roughly even, and that is easily enough to push the guy at 49 across the threshold.
*in a race with an incumbent below 50%, the undecideds tend to beak away from the incumbent, or not vote at all. Ergo, an unpopular incumbent will go thermonuclear on his opponent for the purpose of making him radioactive.....to scare the undecideds into not voting at all. And then, of course, the incumbent has to excellat turnout of his own base. (base election strategy). Obama successfully executed that strategy in 2012.
*the foregoing of course are all mitigated by party registration data and turnout models.
*normally, an incumbent polling below 45% support would be considered in grave danger of losing. Very untenable scenarios for victory.

Trump's is edging up his numbers. Current events are almost entirely working against Biden. Even the hail mary lawfare campaign seems to be backfiring. Biden has parts of the Dem base split over Israel policy. His policy choices on the border and the economy and energy none of his policies are unpopular, and he is nog going to change them. It is reasonable to conclude that Biden is standing on a softer floor than Trump.


Odds are, we are in for another close election. But it does start to move toward a decisive win, it will more likely be in Trump's favor than Biden's.

whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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2024 Michigan GE:

Biden 47% (+2)
Trump 45%
.
Biden 43% (+3)
Trump 40%
Kennedy 7%
West 1%
Stein 1%

.@MorningConsult/@business, 708 RV, 4/8-15https://t.co/Yet5EDIS6I

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 1, 2024

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Biden leading in a key swing state. Not good.

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not a exactly a key swing state and that is the only one of the 7 and Biden has been slightly ahead in MIch for a while

It would be great if Trump took all 7 but its not necessary to get to 270

If he starts slipping in the other swings, that should raise an alarm to Trump camp

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It was a key victory in 2016 for Trump, and helped to propel him to the presidency.

Agreed it's not necessary if every other swing state goes Trump's way, but it's still very important.

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Well, let's look at history, then.

As of April 30 2016, Michigan state polls had Clinton leading Trump by an average of 48.0% to 37.5% (per RCP), But Trump won the state 47.50% to 47.27%

In April 2020, Michigan state polls had Biden leading Trump 46.5% to 41.0%, and Biden won the state 50.6% to 47.8%.

So Democrats ranged from underperforming by 0.7 points to overperforming by 4.1 points, while Trump ranged from overperforming by 6.8 points to overperforming by 9.8 points.

In any translation, a close race in Michigan now is advantage Trump.

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note your example highlights another factor = Trump usually outperforms his polling. He's a turnout machine, including with some large low-propensity turnout demographics.

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For better or for worse...

What in the world...??

BIDENOMICS: The reason the economy is imploding might be because this guy, Jared Bernstein, Chair of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisors is setting our economic policy. His background? Bachelors in Music and Doctorate in Social Welfare [watch]. pic.twitter.com/vnlrQCErZt

— @amuse (@amuse) May 3, 2024

… and he knows nothing about the economy:

https://notthebee.com/article/the-chair-of-the-council-of-economic-advisers-for-president-biden-has-no-idea-how-bonds-work-

Jack Bauer said:

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What in the world...??

BIDENOMICS: The reason the economy is imploding might be because this guy, Jared Bernstein, Chair of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisors is setting our economic policy. His background? Bachelors in Music and Doctorate in Social Welfare [watch]. pic.twitter.com/vnlrQCErZt

— @amuse (@amuse) May 3, 2024

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Actually, making more sense now...

Here we are arguing the Keynsian vs Monetarist vs Neo-Keynsian and the guy behind the curtain is quoting Gershwin...

Gershwin was smarter than that!

historian said:

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Gershwin was smarter than that!

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Point taken...

Outlier poll but consistent with other markers that the national race is trending badly for Democrats. Way too early to stack WA in the red column, but with watching to see if other polls for WA start trending this way. I've seen some state races which do suggest situation in WA is fluid and will be kinder minute GOP than is typically the case. Any scenario where a state like WA is competitive is gloomy for Dems.

SHOCK POLL: President Trump Is Beating Joe Biden in Liberal Washington State via @gatewaypundit https://t.co/cQu1sq4Cc0

— Brad Porcellato (@BradPorcellato) May 3, 2024

Texeira is part of the think-tank left, smart dude. He's citing data which suggests that the economy and immigration are shaping up to be the big issues in the upcoming campaign, and Biden Admin is both poorly positioned for that and doing little to overcome it.

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/could-it-be-2016-all-over-again

Pro-Hamas protesters are backed by a surprising source: Biden’s biggest donorshttps://t.co/qKFyvSRR2p

— Shelley G (@ShelleyGldschmt) May 5, 2024

Happy Cinco de Mayo

Donald Trump is eating a taco salad on top of a bikini-clad photo of his ex-wife, Marla Maples. pic.twitter.com/sW2itGBAOK

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) May 5, 2016

whiterock said:

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Texeira is part of the think-tank left, smart dude. He's citing data which suggests that the economy and immigration are shaping up to be the big issues in the upcoming campaign, and Biden Admin is both poorly positioned for that and doing little to overcome it.

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/could-it-be-2016-all-over-again

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Its almost like they dont care because they already know they are going to win. I've said for a long time that an unwillingness to fix 2020 would result in losing in 2024. Let's see what happens, but a repeat of the drop box election seems likely.

Realitybites said:

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whiterock said:

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Texeira is part of the think-tank left, smart dude. He's citing data which suggests that the economy and immigration are shaping up to be the big issues in the upcoming campaign, and Biden Admin is both poorly positioned for that and doing little to overcome it.

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/could-it-be-2016-all-over-again

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Its almost like they dont care because they already know they are going to win.

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Whiterocks polls have held. Polls show Trump just needs to not have an October Surprise. If Docs case and the Jan 6th Case get postponed, Trump should have a cake walk. Hush money case is not going well, nothing coming out that looks daming. Middle East is killing Biden. Border is a disaster. There really is not any safe haven for Biden to discuss going into the Summer.

Can Donald not self-destruct??? Dems will start baiting him... In my opinion.

The polls may say what they say, but fraudulent junk mail ballots dropped off in the middle of the night dont answer pollsters questions.

There was also the matter of that story from a few weeks ago that highlighted the number of SSA checks for voter registration in Texas.

I'm not sure if this information is accurate but if it is, it is concerning.

https://texasscorecard.com/state/7-facts-about-noncitizens-illegally-voting-in-texas/

Realitybites said:

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The polls may say what they say, but fraudulent junk mail ballots dropped off in the middle of the night dont answer pollsters questions.

There was also the matter of that story from a few weeks ago that highlighted the number of SSA checks for voter registration in Texas.

I'm not sure if this information is accurate but if it is, it is concerning.

https://texasscorecard.com/state/7-facts-about-noncitizens-illegally-voting-in-texas/

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Most GOP-led states have addressed some of the issues on voter registrations, ballot integrity, etc..... Did not get everything they wanted, but nibbling around the edges will make it harder for Dems to stuff ballot boxes, which will suppress the final fraud factor. And the fraud factor cannot overcome a large lead. It only matters in very close elections, where small amounts of fraudulent ballots are statistical blips. When the fraud factor starts climbing into whole digits, it gets easier to spot. By the time it reaches 3%, it starts becoming obvious.

Here's an article which digs a bit deeper into an issue I've mentioned here several times - on election day, Trump tends to outperform his polling.

Are Trump’s Polls Understating His Lead?https://t.co/rrVz3OQrpm@Catronicus

— The American Spectator (@amspectator) May 6, 2024

whiterock said:

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Realitybites said:

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The polls may say what they say, but fraudulent junk mail ballots dropped off in the middle of the night dont answer pollsters questions.

There was also the matter of that story from a few weeks ago that highlighted the number of SSA checks for voter registration in Texas.

I'm not sure if this information is accurate but if it is, it is concerning.

https://texasscorecard.com/state/7-facts-about-noncitizens-illegally-voting-in-texas/

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Most GOP-led states have addressed some of the issues on voter registrations, ballot integrity, etc..... Did not get everything they wanted, but nibbling around the edges will make it harder for Dems to stuff ballot boxes, which will suppress the final fraud factor. And the fraud factor cannot overcome a large lead. It only matters in very close elections, where small amounts of fraudulent ballots are statistical blips. When the fraud factor starts climbing into whole digits, it gets easier to spot. By the time it reaches 3%, it starts becoming obvious.

Here's an article which digs a bit deeper into an issue I've mentioned here several times - on election day, Trump tends to outperform his polling.

Are Trump’s Polls Understating His Lead?https://t.co/rrVz3OQrpm@Catronicus

— The American Spectator (@amspectator) May 6, 2024

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He still has a Suburban Female issue, but is it enough to matter? If Biden keeps making unforced errors basically giving whole cohorts to Trump by his actions, it may not matter what the inner City and Suburban Females say. There is no safe ground, no safe comparison for Biden but maybe Abortion?

FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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Realitybites said:

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The polls may say what they say, but fraudulent junk mail ballots dropped off in the middle of the night dont answer pollsters questions.

There was also the matter of that story from a few weeks ago that highlighted the number of SSA checks for voter registration in Texas.

I'm not sure if this information is accurate but if it is, it is concerning.

https://texasscorecard.com/state/7-facts-about-noncitizens-illegally-voting-in-texas/

---

Most GOP-led states have addressed some of the issues on voter registrations, ballot integrity, etc..... Did not get everything they wanted, but nibbling around the edges will make it harder for Dems to stuff ballot boxes, which will suppress the final fraud factor. And the fraud factor cannot overcome a large lead. It only matters in very close elections, where small amounts of fraudulent ballots are statistical blips. When the fraud factor starts climbing into whole digits, it gets easier to spot. By the time it reaches 3%, it starts becoming obvious.

Here's an article which digs a bit deeper into an issue I've mentioned here several times - on election day, Trump tends to outperform his polling.

Are Trump’s Polls Understating His Lead?https://t.co/rrVz3OQrpm@Catronicus

— The American Spectator (@amspectator) May 6, 2024

---

He still has a Suburban Female issue, but is it enough to matter? If Biden keeps making unforced errors basically giving whole cohorts to Trump by his actions, it may not matter what the inner City and Suburban Females say. There is no safe ground, no safe comparison for Biden but maybe Abortion?

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the SF issue remains, but Biden's advantage has been attenuated, primarily due to economics but other factors contribute.

Every winning campaign has a coalition which can be broken down along a half-dozen or so demographics that propelled the victory. To win re-election, you have to know what those pieces are and motivate them to vote for you again, to turnout sufficient numbers at the right percentages to get across the finish line. Biden will not get as high a percentage of the SF vote as he did in 2020. So where does he make up the difference? Won't be with hispanics, or blacks, youth.

And that's the problem......Biden is losing hole percentage points out of most of his coalition, with no easy target to offset. single young female were a key to the 2022 mid-terms in a handful of states, but that demographic can't offset losses in all the other parts of the coalition.

benchmarks on polling. Post has 2020 accuracy margins.

Also notes Rasmussen is the outlier poll so far this cycle, with Trump up by 12.

Our 538 Average Exit: ABC News does a lot of stupid things.

Doesn't mean we have to improve their accuracy.

Also, today - ABC News President Kim Godwin Is Stepping Down - https://t.co/iSWr4Zsar5

ABC News: 'Answer Our Questions -- Or Else!' - https://t.co/9axLgXVEzl https://t.co/l3pqCp3yz7 pic.twitter.com/6ouptODQRy

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) May 6, 2024

Protest against freebies for illegals in Massachusetts:

https://notthebee.com/article/hundreds-show-up-to-a-close-the-border-rally-in-massachusetts-protesting-state-house-refusal-to-prioritize-veterans-over-illegal-aliens

Biden's financial backers are also funding the chaos on college campuses:

https://notthebee.com/article/politico-investigated-the-funding-behind-anti-israel-protests-on-campus-and-surprise-theyre-the-same-people-who-are-funding-the-biden-campaign

Quote:

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And the fraud factor cannot overcome a large lead. It only matters in very close elections, where small amounts of fraudulent ballots are statistical blips. When the fraud factor starts climbing into whole digits, it gets easier to spot. By the time it reaches 3%, it starts becoming obvious.

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Probably true in an era when democrat fraud consisted of trying to get a democrat judge to order polling places in democrat districts to stay open late, or thousands of illegal aliens voting.

3% is probably a minimum now with an additional 8 million illegals, and a media and legal system that will cover it up.

Look closely at the photo of the 11th!!'

historian said:

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Look closely at the photo of the 11th!!'

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Yeah, I saw that too. Charming "lady" ...

historian said:

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Look closely at the photo of the 11th!!'

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Look closely at the first one. Is that a liberal university president of a familiar nature?

Sone ard vaguely familiar, except #11. The first one is not Dr. Livingstone, if that's who you mean.

611. Voting by aliens
(a) It shall be unlawful for any alien to vote in any election held solely or in part for the purpose of electing a candidate for the office of President, Vice President, Presidential elector, Member of the Senate, Member of the House of Representatives, Delegate from the District of Columbia, or Resident Commissioner, unless-
(1) the election is held partly for some other purpose;
(2) aliens are authorized to vote for such other purpose under a State constitution or statute or a local ordinance; and
(3) voting for such other purpose is conducted independently of voting for a candidate for such Federal offices, in such a manner that an alien has the opportunity to vote for such other purpose, but not an opportunity to vote for a candidate for any one or more of such Federal offices.

(b) Any person who violates this section shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than one year, or both.

(c) Subsection (a) does not apply to an alien if-
(1) each natural parent of the alien (or, in the case of an adopted alien, each adoptive parent of the alien) is or was a citizen (whether by birth or naturalization);
(2) the alien permanently resided in the United States prior to attaining the age of 16; and
(3) the alien reasonably believed at the time of voting in violation of such subsection that he or she was a citizen of the United States.
(Added Pub. L. 104208, div. C, title II, 216(a), Sept. 30, 1996, 110 Stat. 3009572 ; amended Pub. L. 106395, title II, 201(d)(1), Oct. 30, 2000, 114 Stat. 1635 .)


Foreigners Will Be Able To Choose Our Next President


Does this explain why they have opened the border and are funneling illegals to Texas and Florida in combination with the SSA reported registration hits? Once the mail in ballots are separated from their identity envelopes, they are anonymous.

No foreigner has a right to vote in any U.S. election for any reason, especially if they came here illegally. That should be axiomatic. No elected official should ever receive votes from a noncitizen and no policy issue should be decided by noncitizens. It is quite literally none of their business. Now, I realize that there are all kinds of complexities and nuances, as with every other issue it seems. Still, it is a sound starting place for all discussions of elections.

The truly evil aspect of Biden's illegal aliens invasion (close to 10 million already) is that it's deliberately designed to help the Dems (fascists) to steal elections. They don't even hide this anymore, at least not all the time. This is why it is essential to have voter IDs and other reforms to ensure election integrity. Those guilty of election fraud, huge problems in 2016 & 2020, need to be prosecuted & imprisoned.

historian said:

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No foreigner has a right to vote in any U.S. election for any reason, especially if they came here illegally. That should be axiomatic. No elected official should ever receive votes from a noncitizen and no policy issue should be decided by noncitizens. It is quite literally none of their business. Now, I realize that there are all kinds of complexities and nuances, as with every other issue it seems. Still, it is a sound starting place for all discussions of elections.

The truly evil aspect of Biden's illegal aliens invasion (close to 10 million already) is that it's deliberately designed to help the Dems (fascists) to steal elections. They don't even hide this anymore, at least not all the time. This is why it is essential to have voter IDs and other reforms to ensure election integrity. Those guilty of election fraud, huge problems in 2016 & 2020, need to be prosecuted & imprisoned.

---

Voting is a privilege of citizenship. Period.

RFK Jr. challenges Trump to a debate, saying voters “are upset that you blew up the deficit, shut down their businesses during Covid, and filled your administration with swamp creatures."https://t.co/8xH3Az4uTQ

— Axios (@axios) May 8, 2024