πΊπ² 2024 GE: @ppppolls for Clean and Prosperous America PAC (Dem)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 23, 2024
ARIZONA
π₯ Trump: 46%
π¦ Harris: 40%
π¨ RFK Jr: 7%
π© Stein: 1%
β
AZ Senate
π¦ Gallego: 49%
π₯ Lake: 42%
ββ
NORTH CAROLINA
π₯ Trump: 48%
π¦ Harris: 44%
π¨ RFK Jr: 2%
π© Stein: 2%
β
NC Governor
π¦ Stein: 48%
π₯β¦ pic.twitter.com/onmupbNdQ9
2024
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Last: 3 min ago by historian
CNN's @mkraju asks Speaker Mike Johnson whether it's appropriate for some Republicans to call VP Harris a "DEI hire":
— The Recount (@therecount) July 23, 2024
"This election ... is going to be about policies, not personalities. This is not personal. ... And her ethnicity or her gender have nothing to do with this." pic.twitter.com/l8g8fQM9qk
whiterock said:boognish_bear said:NEW
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) July 23, 2024
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly are the leading candidates to be Harris' running mate, ABC News reports pic.twitter.com/mZpDGYrBuI
Those are two good choices. Shapiro will have problems because he's Jewish, which will inflame a major fault line in the Democrat Party - Israel/Hamas. Whatever benefit he brings in PA is offset by the damage he does in MI with the Arab vote there.
Jewish or not I am very content Shapiro is not the Dem machine 's choice for president .
As he would be very formidable.
Would be surprised if he accepted the VP spot though. As he has a bright future in Pennsylvania.
2024 National GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 23, 2024
Harris 42% (+4)
Trump 38%
Kennedy 8%
.@Reuters/@Ipsos, 1,018 RV, 7/22-23 https://t.co/JROPEF5W6B
That far right dude speaks with forked tongue. A lot. What an idiotic statement to try and pass his racism off as not racism.
I'm embarrassed for you for posting this.
Hey @realDonaldTrump. You ready for this? pic.twitter.com/GHBy697yRI
— Michael Steele (@MichaelSteele) July 23, 2024
I'm not posting polls, just surprised to see so many polls within 36 hours of Biden withdrawing.Oldbear83 said:
Tell me you have not paid attention to the polls.
Harris secured the nomination (presumptive nominee) less than 24 hours ago.
βAt 78 years old, Donald Trump is too old to work in governmentβ
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 23, 2024
Agree 53%
Disagree 43%
βββ
βKamala Harris is mentally sharp and able to deal with challengesβ
Agree 56%
Disagree 37%
.@Reuters/@Ipsos, 1,018 RV, 7/22-23 https://t.co/mdkE0aygyN
"Challenges" = able to order from Starbucks via the phone appboognish_bear said:βAt 78 years old, Donald Trump is too old to work in governmentβ
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 23, 2024
Agree 53%
Disagree 43%
βββ
βKamala Harris is mentally sharp and able to deal with challengesβ
Agree 56%
Disagree 37%
.@Reuters/@Ipsos, 1,018 RV, 7/22-23 https://t.co/mdkE0aygyN
Trump needs to get RFK to drop out
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4788574-trump-polls-harris-honeymoon-biden-2024/
Trump pollster predicts 'Harris honeymoon' in upcoming polls
The Trump campaign's pollster on Tuesday predicted Vice President Harris will see a polling boost in the coming weeks after she became the likely Democratic nominee, replacing President Biden, but they insisted the race for the White House is unchanged.
Tony Fabrizio said in a memo shared with reporters that there would be a "Harris Honeymoon" in public polling as she gets wall-to-wall coverage following the change atop the Democratic ticket.
"The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term," Fabrizio said.
"That means we will start to see public polling particularly national public polls where Harris is gaining on or even leading President Trump," he added.
Fabrizio acknowledged the election has entered "uncharted territory" as one major party candidate bows out less than four months from Election Day. He noted Trump received a polling bump in recent days following the assassination attempt against him and the Republican National Convention.
"Given what has happened over the past couple of days and her impending VP choice, there is no question that Harris will get her bump earlier than the Democrat's Convention," Fabrizio said. "And that bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last a while until the race settles back down."
Democrats will try to argue the polls show a changing contest, Fabrizio said, but "the fundamentals of the race stay the same." Polls had for months showed Trump leading Biden in several key battleground states.
"The Democrats deposing one Nominee for another does NOT change voters discontent over the economy, inflation, crime, the open border, housing costs not to mention concern over two foreign wars," he said. "Before long, Harris' 'honeymoon' will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden's partner and co-pilot."
As Fabrizio predicted, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday and conducted after Biden said he would not run for reelection showed Harris leading Trump nationally, 44 percent to 42 percent, within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week, prior to Biden's announcement, showed Harris and Trump tied at 44 percent each.
Battleground state polling of a Harris-Trump matchup has been limited. A New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this month found Harris running slightly better than Biden in Pennsylvania and Virginia, both states Democrats need to win.
Trump pollster predicts 'Harris honeymoon' in upcoming polls
The Trump campaign's pollster on Tuesday predicted Vice President Harris will see a polling boost in the coming weeks after she became the likely Democratic nominee, replacing President Biden, but they insisted the race for the White House is unchanged.
Tony Fabrizio said in a memo shared with reporters that there would be a "Harris Honeymoon" in public polling as she gets wall-to-wall coverage following the change atop the Democratic ticket.
"The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term," Fabrizio said.
"That means we will start to see public polling particularly national public polls where Harris is gaining on or even leading President Trump," he added.
Fabrizio acknowledged the election has entered "uncharted territory" as one major party candidate bows out less than four months from Election Day. He noted Trump received a polling bump in recent days following the assassination attempt against him and the Republican National Convention.
"Given what has happened over the past couple of days and her impending VP choice, there is no question that Harris will get her bump earlier than the Democrat's Convention," Fabrizio said. "And that bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last a while until the race settles back down."
Democrats will try to argue the polls show a changing contest, Fabrizio said, but "the fundamentals of the race stay the same." Polls had for months showed Trump leading Biden in several key battleground states.
"The Democrats deposing one Nominee for another does NOT change voters discontent over the economy, inflation, crime, the open border, housing costs not to mention concern over two foreign wars," he said. "Before long, Harris' 'honeymoon' will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden's partner and co-pilot."
As Fabrizio predicted, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday and conducted after Biden said he would not run for reelection showed Harris leading Trump nationally, 44 percent to 42 percent, within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week, prior to Biden's announcement, showed Harris and Trump tied at 44 percent each.
Battleground state polling of a Harris-Trump matchup has been limited. A New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this month found Harris running slightly better than Biden in Pennsylvania and Virginia, both states Democrats need to win.
why using RV at the time period? If they dont switch to LV soon, its a junk pollboognish_bear said:2024 National GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 23, 2024
Harris 42% (+4)
Trump 38%
Kennedy 8%
.@Reuters/@Ipsos, 1,018 RV, 7/22-23 https://t.co/JROPEF5W6B
Adopt-a-Bear 2024
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#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
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#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
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It's not as if no one has been talking about Biden leaving the race for at least a month now ...Osodecentx said:I'm not posting polls, just surprised to see so many polls within 36 hours of Biden withdrawing.Oldbear83 said:
Tell me you have not paid attention to the polls.
Harris secured the nomination (presumptive nominee) less than 24 hours ago.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Oldbear83 said:It's not as if no one has been talking about Biden leaving the race for at least a month now ...Osodecentx said:I'm not posting polls, just surprised to see so many polls within 36 hours of Biden withdrawing.Oldbear83 said:
Tell me you have not paid attention to the polls.
Harris secured the nomination (presumptive nominee) less than 24 hours ago.
I agree, but it wasn't a given that she would be the nominee when Biden withdrew so pollsters were asking a hypothetical. Now they're polling voters about facts.
NY Times
Harris Rallies Exuberant Wisconsin Crowd, Saying 'When We Fight, We Win'
Vice President Kamala Harris visited a key battleground state and quickly went on the offensive against former President Donald J. Trump, casting the race as a contest between a prosecutor and a felon.
Harris Rallies Exuberant Wisconsin Crowd, Saying 'When We Fight, We Win'
Vice President Kamala Harris visited a key battleground state and quickly went on the offensive against former President Donald J. Trump, casting the race as a contest between a prosecutor and a felon.
It's heavy on Democrats, and admits to a 5.7% MOE for the Independents.4th and Inches said:why using RV at the time period? If they dont switch to LV soon, its a junk pollboognish_bear said:2024 National GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 23, 2024
Harris 42% (+4)
Trump 38%
Kennedy 8%
.@Reuters/@Ipsos, 1,018 RV, 7/22-23 https://t.co/JROPEF5W6B
It also claims Trump only has 75% favorability among Republicans, and basically is out of line with every other poll for the last ten days.
Looks like garbage, a spin poll meant to push sentiment.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
It's a reputable poll. Multiple other polls showing it tied. RNC internals showing same thing, and Trump's pollsters already saying it publicly. They knew polls would tighten, and they expect to fall behind at some point before bouncing back. Bottom line, they expect a battle.4th and Inches said:why using RV at the time period? If they dont switch to LV soon, its a junk pollboognish_bear said:2024 National GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 23, 2024
Harris 42% (+4)
Trump 38%
Kennedy 8%
.@Reuters/@Ipsos, 1,018 RV, 7/22-23 https://t.co/JROPEF5W6B
One additional nugget that very much surprises me: Trump shooting and his strong response are no longer polling well. The public overwhelmingly was impressed with his bravery, fight, etc., but the entire incident seems to be reminding voters of the chaos they feared in another Trump administration. Don't shoot the messenger. This is straight from a Trump/RNC source.
RFK will Trump to go Eff himself.boognish_bear said:
Trump needs to get RFK to drop out
J.R. said:RFK will Trump to go Eff himself.boognish_bear said:
Trump needs to get RFK to drop out
There were some reports a couple of days ago that RFK was angling for a position in Trump's cabinet then he would drop out
"walls don't work! But 8 foot chainlink fences do work!!"
Fencing has been erected around the US Capitol ahead of @netanyahuβs address to Congress tomorrow.
— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) July 23, 2024
The rabid, pro-HAMAS, Jew hating Democrats are already storming the Capitol to protest against Israelβs right to defend itself against violent Islamic terrorists.
The Democrat⦠pic.twitter.com/AQJd5DZM8c
boognish_bear said:CNN's @mkraju asks Speaker Mike Johnson whether it's appropriate for some Republicans to call VP Harris a "DEI hire":
— The Recount (@therecount) July 23, 2024
"This election ... is going to be about policies, not personalities. This is not personal. ... And her ethnicity or her gender have nothing to do with this." pic.twitter.com/l8g8fQM9qk
GOP Congresswoman Harriet Hageman on Vice President Harris: βIntellectually, just really kind of the bottom of the barrel...I think she was a DEI hire.βpic.twitter.com/uvvzcCWfWC
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) July 23, 2024
How does one lead with independents yet trail by 2 overall?
πΊπ² 2024 GE: : [Among Independent voters]
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 23, 2024
π₯ Trump: 46%
π¦ Harris: 32%
β¬ Undecided: 21%
π₯ Trump: 35%
π¦ Harris: 28%
π¨ RFK Jr: 19%
πͺ Other: 7%
β¬ Undecided: 6%
NPR/Marist (#6) | N=268 RV | July 22 https://t.co/Jhs7JyDGEm pic.twitter.com/HD75INDJAc
GOP Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) just introduced articles of impeachment against VP Kamala Harris for high crimes and misdemeanors pic.twitter.com/M5xtvcR2M2
— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) July 23, 2024
The same pollsters have no shame, cycle after cycle, month after month, even week after week.
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) July 23, 2024
The Reuters/Ipsos poll is way outside the consensus (left) and its track record is awful (right).
I'll give them this: they're nothing if not predictable. But that's about it. pic.twitter.com/tls8i6cAt7
What a classic MAGAJack Bauer said:
"walls don't work! But 8 foot chainlink fences do work!!"Fencing has been erected around the US Capitol ahead of @netanyahuβs address to Congress tomorrow.
— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) July 23, 2024
The rabid, pro-HAMAS, Jew hating Democrats are already storming the Capitol to protest against Israelβs right to defend itself against violent Islamic terrorists.
The Democrat⦠pic.twitter.com/AQJd5DZM8c
Trump has 34% of the black vote in the NPR/Marist Poll, leads among whites by the same margin he led Biden, and among indies by a larger margin than he led Clinton.
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) July 23, 2024
The partisan advantage is D+6.
SMH.
I pay no attention to the polls until the week of election. I still recall the huge dissappointment after the failed Red Wave that polls assured me was coming that failed miserably.
Aliceinbubbleland said:What a classic MAGAJack Bauer said:
"walls don't work! But 8 foot chainlink fences do work!!"Fencing has been erected around the US Capitol ahead of @netanyahuβs address to Congress tomorrow.
— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) July 23, 2024
The rabid, pro-HAMAS, Jew hating Democrats are already storming the Capitol to protest against Israelβs right to defend itself against violent Islamic terrorists.
The Democrat⦠pic.twitter.com/AQJd5DZM8c
Given events in the Capitol the fence seems necessary
Patrick: Donald Trump's going to win in November, and we will be rid of all this DEI woke culture bs nonsense. I won't use the word that America's been subjected to. pic.twitter.com/WlTScVQxfb
— Acyn (@Acyn) July 23, 2024
Welp
General Election - Age 18-29 @YouGov Poll:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 23, 2024
π΅ Harris 58% (+25)
π΄ Trump 33% @QuinnipiacPoll
π΄Trump 58% (+19)
π΅ Harris 39%
We enthusiastically supported @NikkiHaley over former President Trump in the primaries.
— Haley Voters for Harris (@HaleyVte4Harris) July 23, 2024
Our rights to engage with likeminded voters and encourage them to vote for @KamalaHarris - the clear better choice for the country - will not be suppressed.
Statement below: https://t.co/o6gHlFkmyZ pic.twitter.com/EhW8FAipiv
For comparison, the June 25 NYT/Siena poll had Biden +19 in that age group. But down 4 points overall.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/04/08/confronting-2016-and-2020-polling-limitations/
The 2016 and 2020 elections raised questions about the state of public opinion polling. Some of the criticism was premature or overheated, considering that polling ultimately got key contours of the 2020 election correct (e.g., the Electoral College and national popular vote winner; Democrats taking control of the Senate). But the consistency with which most poll results differed from those election outcomes is undeniable. Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate's support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
The 2016 and 2020 elections raised questions about the state of public opinion polling. Some of the criticism was premature or overheated, considering that polling ultimately got key contours of the 2020 election correct (e.g., the Electoral College and national popular vote winner; Democrats taking control of the Senate). But the consistency with which most poll results differed from those election outcomes is undeniable. Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate's support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.