2024

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4th and Inches
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In reply to Jacques Strap • 6:26a, 10/31/24
Jacques Strap said:
yeah it was.. just a glitch

Always in the same places and always favoring a certain party..
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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FLBear5630
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 6:51a, 10/31/24
4th and Inches said:
Jacques Strap said:
yeah it was.. just a glitch

Always in the same places and always favoring a certain party..


I mailed in my ballot. Received email from Sup of Elections that it was received and counted. It is harder to get a fake through than people think.

Most of these places have the trouble they have because everything is procured on low bid. The population is conditioned to think every vendor is the same and that anything over low bid is waste. I have had 30 years of successful projects because I don't go by low bid, quality costs. R&D costs. Service costs. People do not go into business to do work at cost.

We value engineer, cut costs and force Govts to use less qualified firms, different materials, cut parts out that Execs think isn't needed, and then wonder why we still have glitches. It is the same places because it is the same people using the same penny pinching processes, rather than paying to do it right. Guarantee their system was won by low bid and small business points, even though they do not have the bench strength to support it.
But, hey we saved money, right.
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Realitybites
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:54a, 10/31/24
It depends where you live. Desantis really took some outstanding steps to clean up and secure Florida's voting systems. We aren't that far removed from Broward county's hanging chads.

In comparison you have Nevada where the Democrats have been given legal cover to back semi loads of non post marked junk mail ballots to be counted for three days post election.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Realitybites • 6:56a, 10/31/24
Realitybites said:
It depends where you live. Desantis really took some outstanding steps to clean up and secure Florida's voting systems. We aren't that far removed from Broward county's hanging chads.


25 years. Keep in mind that was 2000. Paper was still being used, that prompted the total revamp of the election process. It works well now.
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Jacques Strap
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7:13a, 10/31/24

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whiterock
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 7:16a, 10/31/24
Oldbear83 said:
Worked the numbers and got this for what its worth:

For states/districts which went to one party in both 2016 and 2020 by at least 10 points, and that same party leads this year in both the RCP and 270tw averages by 10+ points, Democrats have 11 states and 2 districts for 154 EV, and Republicans have 18 states;

Add in states/districts in which one party in both 2016 and 2020 by at least 5 points, and that same party leads this year in both the RCP and 270tw averages by 5+ points, Democrats add 3 more states and rise to 186 EV, while Republicans add 5 more states and rise to 188 EV;

Add in state/districts in which one party in both 2016 and 2020 by 0.1-4.9 points, and that same party leads this year in both the RCP and 270tw averages by 0.1-4.9 points, Democrats add 4 states and rise to 223 EV, while Republicans add 2 more states and rise to 234 EV.

So for the final remaining seven states and two districts at stake, Trump needs 36 EV while Harris needs 47 EV.

And it comes down to Pennsylvania (19 EV), Georgia (16 EV), Michigan (15 EV), Arizona (11 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV), Nevada (6 EV), Maine (2 EV), and the 2nd district of Nebraska and Maine's 2nd district with 1 EV each.

I'd say Trump is in a much better place.
good analytical structure.

Trump's math to get to 36 starts like this: He is going to win GA, leaving him with 20 more to go. He is going to win AZ, reducing his needed number to 9. He's probably going to win NV, leaving him at 3. He seems likely to win both of the CDs, leaving him at 1. He is even or ahead in each of WI/MI/PA, and has pulled within the margin of error in ME/NH/VA/MN/NM, possibly NJ as well. That's 8 chances to win 1 state.

She has to run the table on all of them. Every. One........

Odds favor Trump.
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KaiBear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 7:16a, 10/31/24
4th and Inches said:
Jacques Strap said:
yeah it was.. just a glitch

Always in the same places and always favoring a certain party..


Unfortunately there will be more 'glitches' in battle ground states.

And the media along with every Democrat partisan on this board will pretend it's all for a 'good cause'.
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ScottS
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7:33a, 10/31/24
Biden bites a baby...

Biden bites baby dressed as chicken during WH Halloween event
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Redbrickbear
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8:21a, 10/31/24
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Jacques Strap
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9:22a, 10/31/24
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to Jacques Strap • 9:37a, 10/31/24
Jacques Strap said:
Yep

Amazing how the Feds only prosecute conservatives and rightwingers for stuff like this....never the Left

Mackey of course was making a twitter joke and the Feds sent him to prison for it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/influencer-gets-months-in-prison-for-2016-voter-interference-scheme.html

  • A Trump-supporting social media influencer was sentenced to seven months in prison for "conspiring to suppress" the votes of possibly thousands of people who supported former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
  • Douglass Mackey, who was 33 when he was convicted in March
  • Shortly ahead of the 2016 elections, those Twitter advertisements told voters that they could avoid lines at voting booths by texting "Hillary" to a five-digit phone number. Voting by text does not exist in the United States.
  • It was not immediately clear if anyone failed to vote as a result of Mackey's scheme.
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boognish_bear
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10:19a, 10/31/24
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ScottS
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In reply to Jacques Strap • 10:33a, 10/31/24
Jacques Strap said:
Wow, 7 months in prison. But watch, nothing will happen to Kimmel.
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ScottS
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11:07a, 10/31/24
Women Dominate Early Voting as Donald Trump Supporters Get Nervous - Newsweek


In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote. The gender gap was widest in Pennsylvania as of 2 a.m. ET on Thursday, with women accounting for about 56 percent of the early vote, and men for about 43 percent.
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ScottS
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11:12a, 10/31/24
Kamala Harris No Longer Favorite in New Hampshire: Election Forecast
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4th and Inches
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In reply to ScottS • 12:05p, 10/31/24
ScottS said:
Women Dominate Early Voting as Donald Trump Supporters Get Nervous - Newsweek


In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote. The gender gap was widest in Pennsylvania as of 2 a.m. ET on Thursday, with women accounting for about 56 percent of the early vote, and men for about 43 percent.
look at all the TikTok videos and such, it's women talking about going to vote for Trump

This isnt a bad thing for Trump yet..
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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EatMoreSalmon
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 12:45p, 10/31/24
4th and Inches said:
ScottS said:
Women Dominate Early Voting as Donald Trump Supporters Get Nervous - Newsweek


In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote. The gender gap was widest in Pennsylvania as of 2 a.m. ET on Thursday, with women accounting for about 56 percent of the early vote, and men for about 43 percent.
look at all the TikTok videos and such, it's women talking about going to vote for Trump

This isnt a bad thing for Trump yet..
I am sure there are millions of American women voting for Donald Trump. Unfortunately it appears there are more millions of American women voting for Kakala Harris.
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Adriacus Peratuun
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12:53p, 10/31/24
National Early Voting data is even more useless than national polling data.
With numerous highly populated D states emphasizing Voting By Mail the national data will necessarily be highly skewed.

Dive into the state by state Early Voting Data. Look at party affiliation. Look at geographic location [urban, suburban, rural]. Look at the % of expected total vote. The detailed data tells a very different story.

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historian
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In reply to Jacques Strap • 1:42p, 10/31/24
Jacques Strap said:

Hopefully Trump will pardon Mackey since has prosecution was a fraud. Since Kimmel is blatantly trying to interfere on live national TV maybe he should be prosecuted. But he won't be.
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boognish_bear
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1:46p, 10/31/24
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whiterock
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1:50p, 10/31/24
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boognish_bear
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1:51p, 10/31/24
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Adriacus Peratuun
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1:54p, 10/31/24
Why you can't blindly believe MSM hype reporting:

OTA network leads with "early voting is up significantly over 2020 in Wisconsin". Then a lengthy blurb on high level of interest in election with primarily Harris supporters interviewed.

Reality:

In person early voting is currently up [comped to 2020 total] by 50K.
But mail in early voting is currently down by [comped to 2020 total] 1.3M.

Yes……net down 1.25M. That 2020 total volume might get reached by Tuesday, but in no way is early voting "up significantly" in Wisconsin.

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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to whiterock • 1:56p, 10/31/24
whiterock said:
That happened 3+ days ago when she pulled 80% of her NC TV ad budget. Public on Monday so likely happened over weekend.
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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to boognish_bear • 2:01p, 10/31/24
boognish_bear said:
If he has time to (basically) campaign to help Best Case Scenario R Senate candidates, the inside numbers must look fantastic.

As an aside, he is also building Good Will with establishment Rs when he needs their votes on politically tough government reform bills and immigration bills.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to boognish_bear • 2:16p, 10/31/24
boognish_bear said:
Oil and gas
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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Jacques Strap
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2:19p, 10/31/24

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sombear
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In reply to Adriacus Peratuun • 2:23p, 10/31/24
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Why you can't blindly believe MSM hype reporting:

OTA network leads with "early voting is up significantly over 2020 in Wisconsin". Then a lengthy blurb on high level of interest in election with primarily Harris supporters interviewed.

Reality:

In person early voting is currently up [comped to 2020 total] by 50K.
But mail in early voting is currently down by [comped to 2020 total] 1.3M.

Yes……net down 1.25M. That 2020 total volume might get reached by Tuesday, but in no way is early voting "up significantly" in Wisconsin.

Trump team is "mildly concerned" about male turnout and energy
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Jacques Strap
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2:26p, 10/31/24
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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to sombear • 4:28p, 10/31/24
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Why you can't blindly believe MSM hype reporting:

OTA network leads with "early voting is up significantly over 2020 in Wisconsin". Then a lengthy blurb on high level of interest in election with primarily Harris supporters interviewed.

Reality:

In person early voting is currently up [comped to 2020 total] by 50K.
But mail in early voting is currently down by [comped to 2020 total] 1.3M.

Yes……net down 1.25M. That 2020 total volume might get reached by Tuesday, but in no way is early voting "up significantly" in Wisconsin.

Trump team is "mildly concerned" about male turnout and energy
Campaign strategists are paid to worry.
Creating "finish the race" boogeymen is part of their job.

Back channel they are happy dancing about both current polls and current early voting numbers and trends.
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ScottS
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In reply to whiterock • 4:29p, 10/31/24
whiterock said:

....and Trump is holding a rally in VA on Saturday.
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boognish_bear
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5:26p, 10/31/24
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5:29p, 10/31/24
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whiterock
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5:43p, 10/31/24
Trump is peaking at the right time. Perfect. If the low propensity voters turnout well on Election Day, this election could be a blowout.

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4th and Inches
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In reply to whiterock • 5:48p, 10/31/24
whiterock said:
Trump is peaking at the right time. Perfect. If the low propensity voters turnout well on Election Day, this election could be a blowout.

landslide
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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