2024

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whiterock
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12:01p, 7/18/23
High likelihood of a consequential third party. or two.

Consistently over time, Conservatives are a plurality of the electorate, followed by moderates, with liberals representing usually about 25%. A third party bid in the center of the spectrum should, all things equal, tip the scales toward the conservative in the race.

This is one of the reasons why Trump is more viable than his critics allow.....
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Cobretti
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7:08p, 7/18/23




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KaiBear
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8:53p, 7/18/23
Gavin Newsom beats DeSantis in 2024.

As women of all ages swoon for the dapper leftist .

Policies be damned .

Canada 2.0.
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boognish_bear
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10:09p, 7/18/23
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Jack Bauer
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In reply to KaiBear • 10:26p, 7/18/23
KaiBear said:
Gavin Newsom beats DeSantis in 2024.

As women of all ages swoon for the dapper leftist .

Policies be damned .

Canada 2.0.

Obama, Beto, Gavin. Trudeau

Middle age white women love these guys.
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Mothra
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 4:36a, 7/19/23
Jack Bauer said:
KaiBear said:
Gavin Newsom beats DeSantis in 2024.

As women of all ages swoon for the dapper leftist .

Policies be damned .

Canada 2.0.

Obama, Beto, Gavin. Trudeau

Middle age white women love these guys.


Yup. It's incredible to me how superficial women can be in their criteria for leader of the free world.
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Jack Bauer
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7:45a, 7/19/23
CNN is in abusive relationship with Donald Trump

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sombear
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10:51a, 7/20/23
Yikes

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4th and Inches
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In reply to sombear • 5:07p, 7/20/23
sombear said:
Yikes

ratio of sampling is off and those are RVs not LVs.. dig into it and you will probably find they over sampled the Rs as educated suburb women.

Edit- defintely some interesting results. Women definitely hate Trump, Trump polling better with Blacks and hispanics than in 2020.

These polls dont mean anything this far out anyway. Strong Dem lead.. discourages GOP voters, close the gap with real polls allows the Dems to rally and grift for emergency cash. A tale as old as time
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sombear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 9:19p, 7/20/23
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
Yikes

ratio of sampling is off and those are RVs not LVs.. dig into it and you will probably find they over sampled the Rs as educated suburb women.

Edit- defintely some interesting results. Women definitely hate Trump, Trump polling better with Blacks and hispanics than in 2020.

These polls dont mean anything this far out anyway. Strong Dem lead.. discourages GOP voters, close the gap with real polls allows the Dems to rally and grift for emergency cash. A tale as old as time
The tabs look pretty solid to me. And virtually all off-year polls are RVs because it's too difficult to pin down LVs this far out.

100% agree this is only one poll, and I'm not reading too much into. But it is not good for Trump that, when Biden is at his lowest, a fairly reputable national poster has him down so badly and his unfavorables so high.



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sombear
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9:40p, 7/20/23
Worse

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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 4:59a, 7/21/23
sombear said:
Worse

In 2020, Monmouth had Biden up 17 in WI......

I've seen as many moving to Trump as are moving to Biden. Tells me the race is pretty static. I expect neither candidate will improve much, which is why a third party ticket seems a near certainty.
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:09a, 7/21/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Worse

In 2020, Monmouth had Biden up 17 in WI......

I've seen as many moving to Trump as are moving to Biden. Tells me the race is pretty static. I expect neither candidate will improve much, which is why a third party ticket seems a near certainty.
I believe that was ABC/WP.

Trump had a few good polls, but most of the key national and battlegrounds have not been good, and Trump has no upside. His best hope is that Biden's unfavorables somehow go even lower.
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to whiterock • 8:13a, 7/21/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Worse

In 2020, Monmouth had Biden up 17 in WI......

I've seen as many moving to Trump as are moving to Biden. Tells me the race is pretty static. I expect neither candidate will improve much, which is why a third party ticket seems a near certainty.
You think Machin/RFK Jr ticket?

Seems it could be a real possibility
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 2:28p, 7/21/23
Rawhide said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Worse

In 2020, Monmouth had Biden up 17 in WI......

I've seen as many moving to Trump as are moving to Biden. Tells me the race is pretty static. I expect neither candidate will improve much, which is why a third party ticket seems a near certainty.
You think Machin/RFK Jr ticket?

Seems it could be a real possibility
interesting..
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 2:56p, 7/21/23
Rawhide said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Worse

In 2020, Monmouth had Biden up 17 in WI......

I've seen as many moving to Trump as are moving to Biden. Tells me the race is pretty static. I expect neither candidate will improve much, which is why a third party ticket seems a near certainty.
You think Machin/RFK Jr ticket?

Seems it could be a real possibility

An old Democratic party ticket....man you don't see that anymore.

Patriotic & Pro-America /pro-Working class /interesting in building stuff/ not anti-White/ skeptical about foreign wars....

Of course the actual powers that be in the modern Democratic party would never let that happen.
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J.R.
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 4:14p, 7/21/23
Rawhide said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Worse

In 2020, Monmouth had Biden up 17 in WI......

I've seen as many moving to Trump as are moving to Biden. Tells me the race is pretty static. I expect neither candidate will improve much, which is why a third party ticket seems a near certainty.
You think Machin/RFK Jr ticket?

Seems it could be a real possibility
I'd be interested
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Oldbear83
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4:37p, 7/21/23
I am frankly amused by the people who think we know at this date who will be the nominees next year.

Trump is interesting, because he has both a very hard floor of supporters who will support him no matter what happens, and he has a hard ceiling of support due to his personal negatives. We know from 2016 he could win the White House again, and we know from 2020 that he could lose even if he has all the factors lined up.

I am sure that there are a number of Democrats working hard to keep Trump in the GOP race, because they believe a Trump nomination is their best chance to hold the White House in 2024.

But looking at the Democrats' decisions from 2016 on, they have managed to choose some incredibly poor candidates. The DNC very plainly rigged the nomination for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, though only God knows why anyone would select those characters for their Presidential nomination.

The Democrats have also been incredibly stupid in how they have pursued Trump. They could have carefully built a case on solid evidence that Trump mishandled documents, was intemperate in his response to the 2020 election, and basically could not be trusted with leading the nation, and if they had done so Trump would look the fool in the eyes of most voters, Instead, the Democrats in various places have clearly overplayed their hand, so that sympathy for Trump among Independents appears to be growing - if Trump should ever reach 50 percent approval among Independents he will win the 2024 election in a rout. I am frankly stunned that the DNC did not consider the optics of their legal attacks - the plan was so stupid it's Bidenesque.

But to the point of the GOP nomination, there is a long race ahead, and it looks like a four-man race at this time, but with the door open for a late entrant who could change the game.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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J.R.
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 4:53p, 7/21/23
Oldbear83 said:
I am frankly amused by the people who think we know at this date who will be the nominees next year.

Trump is interesting, because he has both a very hard floor of supporters who will support him no matter what happens, and he has a hard ceiling of support due to his personal negatives. We know from 2016 he could win the White House again, and we know from 2020 that he could lose even if he has all the factors lined up.

I am sure that there are a number of Democrats working hard to keep Trump in the GOP race, because they believe a Trump nomination is their best chance to hold the White House in 2024.

But looking at the Democrats' decisions from 2016 on, they have managed to choose some incredibly poor candidates. The DNC very plainly rigged the nomination for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, though only God knows why anyone would select those characters for their Presidential nomination.

The Democrats have also been incredibly stupid in how they have pursued Trump. They could have carefully built a case on solid evidence that Trump mishandled documents, was intemperate in his response to the 2020 election, and basically could not be trusted with leading the nation, and if they had done so Trump would look the fool in the eyes of most voters, Instead, the Democrats in various places have clearly overplayed their hand, so that sympathy for Trump among Independents appears to be growing - if Trump should ever reach 50 percent approval among Independents he will win the 2024 election in a rout. I am frankly stunned that the DNC did not consider the optics of their legal attacks - the plan was so stupid it's Bidenesque.

But to the point of the GOP nomination, there is a long race ahead, and it looks like a four-man race at this time, but with the door open for a late entrant who could change the game.
there ain't an Independent I know who would ever vote Trump. Please
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KaiBear
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In reply to J.R. • 5:46p, 7/21/23
J.R. said:
Oldbear83 said:
I am frankly amused by the people who think we know at this date who will be the nominees next year.

Trump is interesting, because he has both a very hard floor of supporters who will support him no matter what happens, and he has a hard ceiling of support due to his personal negatives. We know from 2016 he could win the White House again, and we know from 2020 that he could lose even if he has all the factors lined up.

I am sure that there are a number of Democrats working hard to keep Trump in the GOP race, because they believe a Trump nomination is their best chance to hold the White House in 2024.

But looking at the Democrats' decisions from 2016 on, they have managed to choose some incredibly poor candidates. The DNC very plainly rigged the nomination for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, though only God knows why anyone would select those characters for their Presidential nomination.

The Democrats have also been incredibly stupid in how they have pursued Trump. They could have carefully built a case on solid evidence that Trump mishandled documents, was intemperate in his response to the 2020 election, and basically could not be trusted with leading the nation, and if they had done so Trump would look the fool in the eyes of most voters, Instead, the Democrats in various places have clearly overplayed their hand, so that sympathy for Trump among Independents appears to be growing - if Trump should ever reach 50 percent approval among Independents he will win the 2024 election in a rout. I am frankly stunned that the DNC did not consider the optics of their legal attacks - the plan was so stupid it's Bidenesque.

But to the point of the GOP nomination, there is a long race ahead, and it looks like a four-man race at this time, but with the door open for a late entrant who could change the game.
there ain't an Independent I know who would ever vote Trump. Please
Agreed


Not many females under the age of 55 either.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to J.R. • 6:02p, 7/21/23
J.R. said:
Oldbear83 said:
I am frankly amused by the people who think we know at this date who will be the nominees next year.

Trump is interesting, because he has both a very hard floor of supporters who will support him no matter what happens, and he has a hard ceiling of support due to his personal negatives. We know from 2016 he could win the White House again, and we know from 2020 that he could lose even if he has all the factors lined up.

I am sure that there are a number of Democrats working hard to keep Trump in the GOP race, because they believe a Trump nomination is their best chance to hold the White House in 2024.

But looking at the Democrats' decisions from 2016 on, they have managed to choose some incredibly poor candidates. The DNC very plainly rigged the nomination for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, though only God knows why anyone would select those characters for their Presidential nomination.

The Democrats have also been incredibly stupid in how they have pursued Trump. They could have carefully built a case on solid evidence that Trump mishandled documents, was intemperate in his response to the 2020 election, and basically could not be trusted with leading the nation, and if they had done so Trump would look the fool in the eyes of most voters, Instead, the Democrats in various places have clearly overplayed their hand, so that sympathy for Trump among Independents appears to be growing - if Trump should ever reach 50 percent approval among Independents he will win the 2024 election in a rout. I am frankly stunned that the DNC did not consider the optics of their legal attacks - the plan was so stupid it's Bidenesque.

But to the point of the GOP nomination, there is a long race ahead, and it looks like a four-man race at this time, but with the door open for a late entrant who could change the game.
there ain't an Independent I know who would ever vote Trump. Please
get out more
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In reply to KaiBear • 6:03p, 7/21/23
KaiBear said:
J.R. said:
Oldbear83 said:
I am frankly amused by the people who think we know at this date who will be the nominees next year.

Trump is interesting, because he has both a very hard floor of supporters who will support him no matter what happens, and he has a hard ceiling of support due to his personal negatives. We know from 2016 he could win the White House again, and we know from 2020 that he could lose even if he has all the factors lined up.

I am sure that there are a number of Democrats working hard to keep Trump in the GOP race, because they believe a Trump nomination is their best chance to hold the White House in 2024.

But looking at the Democrats' decisions from 2016 on, they have managed to choose some incredibly poor candidates. The DNC very plainly rigged the nomination for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, though only God knows why anyone would select those characters for their Presidential nomination.

The Democrats have also been incredibly stupid in how they have pursued Trump. They could have carefully built a case on solid evidence that Trump mishandled documents, was intemperate in his response to the 2020 election, and basically could not be trusted with leading the nation, and if they had done so Trump would look the fool in the eyes of most voters, Instead, the Democrats in various places have clearly overplayed their hand, so that sympathy for Trump among Independents appears to be growing - if Trump should ever reach 50 percent approval among Independents he will win the 2024 election in a rout. I am frankly stunned that the DNC did not consider the optics of their legal attacks - the plan was so stupid it's Bidenesque.

But to the point of the GOP nomination, there is a long race ahead, and it looks like a four-man race at this time, but with the door open for a late entrant who could change the game.
there ain't an Independent I know who would ever vote Trump. Please
Agreed


Not many females under the age of 55 either.
i know several

These same people will vote for several others because they vote policy.
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 6:19p, 7/21/23
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
J.R. said:
Oldbear83 said:
I am frankly amused by the people who think we know at this date who will be the nominees next year.

Trump is interesting, because he has both a very hard floor of supporters who will support him no matter what happens, and he has a hard ceiling of support due to his personal negatives. We know from 2016 he could win the White House again, and we know from 2020 that he could lose even if he has all the factors lined up.

I am sure that there are a number of Democrats working hard to keep Trump in the GOP race, because they believe a Trump nomination is their best chance to hold the White House in 2024.

But looking at the Democrats' decisions from 2016 on, they have managed to choose some incredibly poor candidates. The DNC very plainly rigged the nomination for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, though only God knows why anyone would select those characters for their Presidential nomination.

The Democrats have also been incredibly stupid in how they have pursued Trump. They could have carefully built a case on solid evidence that Trump mishandled documents, was intemperate in his response to the 2020 election, and basically could not be trusted with leading the nation, and if they had done so Trump would look the fool in the eyes of most voters, Instead, the Democrats in various places have clearly overplayed their hand, so that sympathy for Trump among Independents appears to be growing - if Trump should ever reach 50 percent approval among Independents he will win the 2024 election in a rout. I am frankly stunned that the DNC did not consider the optics of their legal attacks - the plan was so stupid it's Bidenesque.

But to the point of the GOP nomination, there is a long race ahead, and it looks like a four-man race at this time, but with the door open for a late entrant who could change the game.
there ain't an Independent I know who would ever vote Trump. Please
Agreed


Not many females under the age of 55 either.
i know several

These same people will vote for several others because they vote policy.
Fabulous.

But we both know Trump is despised by the majority of gals of every skin color.

If Trump is the nominee, Dems win in a landslide.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to J.R. • 6:21p, 7/21/23
Ewing: "there ain't an Independent I know who would ever vote Trump. Please"

Then you don't know any Independents.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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4th and Inches
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In reply to KaiBear • 6:23p, 7/21/23
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
J.R. said:
Oldbear83 said:
I am frankly amused by the people who think we know at this date who will be the nominees next year.

Trump is interesting, because he has both a very hard floor of supporters who will support him no matter what happens, and he has a hard ceiling of support due to his personal negatives. We know from 2016 he could win the White House again, and we know from 2020 that he could lose even if he has all the factors lined up.

I am sure that there are a number of Democrats working hard to keep Trump in the GOP race, because they believe a Trump nomination is their best chance to hold the White House in 2024.

But looking at the Democrats' decisions from 2016 on, they have managed to choose some incredibly poor candidates. The DNC very plainly rigged the nomination for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, though only God knows why anyone would select those characters for their Presidential nomination.

The Democrats have also been incredibly stupid in how they have pursued Trump. They could have carefully built a case on solid evidence that Trump mishandled documents, was intemperate in his response to the 2020 election, and basically could not be trusted with leading the nation, and if they had done so Trump would look the fool in the eyes of most voters, Instead, the Democrats in various places have clearly overplayed their hand, so that sympathy for Trump among Independents appears to be growing - if Trump should ever reach 50 percent approval among Independents he will win the 2024 election in a rout. I am frankly stunned that the DNC did not consider the optics of their legal attacks - the plan was so stupid it's Bidenesque.

But to the point of the GOP nomination, there is a long race ahead, and it looks like a four-man race at this time, but with the door open for a late entrant who could change the game.
there ain't an Independent I know who would ever vote Trump. Please
Agreed


Not many females under the age of 55 either.
i know several

These same people will vote for several others because they vote policy.
Fabulous.

But we both know Trump is despised by the majority of gals of every skin color.

If Trump is the nominee, Dems win in a landslide.
Dems win in a landslide no matter the canidate..

"We're in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for President Obama's administration before this, we have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics," Biden said

I believe him
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Jack Bauer
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6:39p, 7/21/23
This will play well in...Texas.



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sombear
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7:04p, 7/21/23
Trump Gets Bad News From His Own Pollster's Firm
Story by Katherine Fung 2h ago


Former President Donald Trump on Friday received some bad news from the firm of his own pollster about the 2024 presidential race.

A Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll surveying voters in 40 competitive House districts across the nation found that while President Joe Biden has an edge over Trump in those crucial swing districts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a bigger threat to the incumbent.

While Biden led Trump 47 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, Biden and DeSantis were to be tied at 45 percent. Trump and DeSantis are both gunning to be the Republican nominee. DeSantis has been the only other GOP candidate to break away from the crowded field, but polls continue to give Trump a wide lead over DeSantis, suggesting that he's still the favorite among Republican voters.

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sombear
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In reply to J.R. • 7:08p, 7/21/23
J.R. said:
Rawhide said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Worse

In 2020, Monmouth had Biden up 17 in WI......

I've seen as many moving to Trump as are moving to Biden. Tells me the race is pretty static. I expect neither candidate will improve much, which is why a third party ticket seems a near certainty.
You think Machin/RFK Jr ticket?

Seems it could be a real possibility
I'd be interested
One of O&G's biggest supporters and an environmental whacko together . . . No freaking way.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 8:17p, 7/21/23
sombear said:
Trump Gets Bad News From His Own Pollster's Firm
Story by Katherine Fung 2h ago


Former President Donald Trump on Friday received some bad news from the firm of his own pollster about the 2024 presidential race.

A Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll surveying voters in 40 competitive House districts across the nation found that while President Joe Biden has an edge over Trump in those crucial swing districts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a bigger threat to the incumbent.

While Biden led Trump 47 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, Biden and DeSantis were to be tied at 45 percent. Trump and DeSantis are both gunning to be the Republican nominee. DeSantis has been the only other GOP candidate to break away from the crowded field, but polls continue to give Trump a wide lead over DeSantis, suggesting that he's still the favorite among Republican voters.


Nobody is polling the same universe.

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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:22p, 7/21/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Trump Gets Bad News From His Own Pollster's Firm
Story by Katherine Fung 2h ago


Former President Donald Trump on Friday received some bad news from the firm of his own pollster about the 2024 presidential race.

A Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll surveying voters in 40 competitive House districts across the nation found that while President Joe Biden has an edge over Trump in those crucial swing districts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a bigger threat to the incumbent.

While Biden led Trump 47 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, Biden and DeSantis were to be tied at 45 percent. Trump and DeSantis are both gunning to be the Republican nominee. DeSantis has been the only other GOP candidate to break away from the crowded field, but polls continue to give Trump a wide lead over DeSantis, suggesting that he's still the favorite among Republican voters.


Nobody is polling the same universe.

We both agree and have posted here many times that polls are all over the place. But, for a good while, folks were saying Trump was consistently polling ahead of Biden, and that was never true - not nationally or in the key states. That remains concerning to me given all of Biden's troubles.

Yahoo also had Trump down 4-5 BTW.
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KaiBear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 10:00p, 7/21/23
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
J.R. said:
Oldbear83 said:
I am frankly amused by the people who think we know at this date who will be the nominees next year.

Trump is interesting, because he has both a very hard floor of supporters who will support him no matter what happens, and he has a hard ceiling of support due to his personal negatives. We know from 2016 he could win the White House again, and we know from 2020 that he could lose even if he has all the factors lined up.

I am sure that there are a number of Democrats working hard to keep Trump in the GOP race, because they believe a Trump nomination is their best chance to hold the White House in 2024.

But looking at the Democrats' decisions from 2016 on, they have managed to choose some incredibly poor candidates. The DNC very plainly rigged the nomination for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, though only God knows why anyone would select those characters for their Presidential nomination.

The Democrats have also been incredibly stupid in how they have pursued Trump. They could have carefully built a case on solid evidence that Trump mishandled documents, was intemperate in his response to the 2020 election, and basically could not be trusted with leading the nation, and if they had done so Trump would look the fool in the eyes of most voters, Instead, the Democrats in various places have clearly overplayed their hand, so that sympathy for Trump among Independents appears to be growing - if Trump should ever reach 50 percent approval among Independents he will win the 2024 election in a rout. I am frankly stunned that the DNC did not consider the optics of their legal attacks - the plan was so stupid it's Bidenesque.

But to the point of the GOP nomination, there is a long race ahead, and it looks like a four-man race at this time, but with the door open for a late entrant who could change the game.
there ain't an Independent I know who would ever vote Trump. Please
Agreed


Not many females under the age of 55 either.
i know several

These same people will vote for several others because they vote policy.
Fabulous.

But we both know Trump is despised by the majority of gals of every skin color.

If Trump is the nominee, Dems win in a landslide.
Dems win in a landslide no matter the canidate..

"We're in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for President Obama's administration before this, we have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics," Biden said

I believe him


We all should.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 8:11a, 7/22/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Trump Gets Bad News From His Own Pollster's Firm
Story by Katherine Fung 2h ago


Former President Donald Trump on Friday received some bad news from the firm of his own pollster about the 2024 presidential race.

A Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll surveying voters in 40 competitive House districts across the nation found that while President Joe Biden has an edge over Trump in those crucial swing districts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a bigger threat to the incumbent.

While Biden led Trump 47 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, Biden and DeSantis were to be tied at 45 percent. Trump and DeSantis are both gunning to be the Republican nominee. DeSantis has been the only other GOP candidate to break away from the crowded field, but polls continue to give Trump a wide lead over DeSantis, suggesting that he's still the favorite among Republican voters.


Nobody is polling the same universe.

We both agree and have posted here many times that polls are all over the place. But, for a good while, folks were saying Trump was consistently polling ahead of Biden, and that was never true - not nationally or in the key states. That remains concerning to me given all of Biden's troubles.

Yahoo also had Trump down 4-5 BTW.
I continue to be convinced that while Trump may be up against a firm ceiling, Biden has a hard floor at least 10 points below his current level. He was weak sauce in his prime and is up against things which are bad at the moment, beyond his control, and certain to deteriorate - age and the economy*. And that's before we get to all the scandal issues, which are not likely containable.

*have a buddy who is a big player in scrap metals, which is a leading indicator. Trends have him battening down hatches. All indicators suggest a rough ride ahead.


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In reply to sombear • 8:34a, 7/22/23
sombear said:
Worse



Looks to me like that bump he got when he was being indicted is wearing off and people are remembering what a piece he is.
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 8:39a, 7/22/23
Oldbear83 said:
Ewing: "there ain't an Independent I know who would ever vote Trump. Please"

Then you don't know any Independents.


Current polls I've seen among independents shows about 37% approval and that's pretty much where it's been since 2020.

It would take a Hail Mary by Trump for him to get anywhere near 50%. Pipe dream.
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In reply to whiterock • 8:43a, 7/22/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Trump Gets Bad News From His Own Pollster's Firm
Story by Katherine Fung 2h ago


Former President Donald Trump on Friday received some bad news from the firm of his own pollster about the 2024 presidential race.

A Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll surveying voters in 40 competitive House districts across the nation found that while President Joe Biden has an edge over Trump in those crucial swing districts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a bigger threat to the incumbent.

While Biden led Trump 47 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, Biden and DeSantis were to be tied at 45 percent. Trump and DeSantis are both gunning to be the Republican nominee. DeSantis has been the only other GOP candidate to break away from the crowded field, but polls continue to give Trump a wide lead over DeSantis, suggesting that he's still the favorite among Republican voters.


Nobody is polling the same universe.

We both agree and have posted here many times that polls are all over the place. But, for a good while, folks were saying Trump was consistently polling ahead of Biden, and that was never true - not nationally or in the key states. That remains concerning to me given all of Biden's troubles.

Yahoo also had Trump down 4-5 BTW.
I continue to be convinced that while Trump may be up against a firm ceiling, Biden has a hard floor at least 10 points below his current level. He was weak sauce in his prime and is up against things which are bad at the moment, beyond his control, and certain to deteriorate - age and the economy*. And that's before we get to all the scandal issues, which are not likely containable.

*have a buddy who is a big player in scrap metals, which is a leading indicator. Trends have him battening down hatches. All indicators suggest a rough ride ahead.




Hope you're right but I just don't see it.
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