Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

I've been very open about my disdain for Trump since J6. But polls are polls, and internals are internals. And I've never allowed my personal views to taint my political analysis (or intel).

Again, I ask, do you actually think he's increased his suburban women support since J6?

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

there are polls showing he is lagging in subarban women and single women. This group votes with feelings alot, this is a losing proposition for Trump.

He has gained a ton of ground in minority polling though. It isnt enough to make up the difference but it shows that minorities arent happy with the progressive movement of the Dem party.

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

I've been very open about my disdain for Trump since J6. But polls are polls, and internals are internals. And I've never allowed my personal views to taint my political analysis (or intel).

Again, I ask, do you actually think he's increased his suburban women support since J6?

---

basically, suburban women dont like the current GOP canidates listed vs sleepy grandpa Biden(hes not mean)

Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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No.

---

In that case, I consider your claim false.


This is not 2020, nor are conditions as you seem to imagine.

---

I couldn't give a rat's ass about what you consider my claim.

The idea that Trump has narrowed the gap on suburban women, who he lost badly in 2020, isn't supported by evidence. Sorry.

But if you want to believe this time it will somehow be different, good luck with that. Prepare to be disappointed.

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

I've been very open about my disdain for Trump since J6. But polls are polls, and internals are internals. And I've never allowed my personal views to taint my political analysis (or intel).

Again, I ask, do you actually think he's increased his suburban women support since J6?

---

Oh, he believes conditions have changed and this isn't 2020.

Hilarious.

The true believers are going to be so disappointed next year when Trump gets his ass handed to him. Again.

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

A lot has changed. Trump has been charged with 3 felonies, is polling as bad as he has in years at 39%, and continues to spout ridiculous stolen election drivel. Do you think that has increased his popularity among subrnab women? What is your evidence that things have changed for Trump with suburban women, again?

4th and Inches said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

I've been very open about my disdain for Trump since J6. But polls are polls, and internals are internals. And I've never allowed my personal views to taint my political analysis (or intel).

Again, I ask, do you actually think he's increased his suburban women support since J6?

---

basically, suburban women dont like the current GOP canidates listed vs sleepy grandpa Biden(hes not mean)

---

But it's not surprising that others would be doing poorly in general election at this point. What's surprising is that they are generally doing as well or better than Trump. Primary challengers have historically polled badly, and Trump isn't technically an incumbent, but he effectively is for polling purposes.

Still no link, no dates, no demographics.

Come on, you must have something better than that crap.

Mothra said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

A lot has changed. Trump has been charged with 3 felonies, is polling as bad as he has in years at 39%, and continues to spout ridiculous stolen election drivel. Do you think that has increased his popularity among subrnab women? What is your evidence that things have changed for Trump with suburban women, again?

---

Calm down son, you'll burst a blood vessel if you don't chill.

That said, go find an adult who will explain to you:

A) Accusations from Trump haters do not = guilt
B) The 2020 election was less trustworthy than a guy selling you a 'certified' used Leksus luxury sedan
C) 2020 is not 2023, things like the economy and Joe's hair-sniffing will affect voter opinions. Only Democrats believe voters don't evolve their opinions

Oldbear83 said:

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Still no link, no dates, no demographics.

Come on, you must have something better than that crap.

---

That's a JL poll from late June. And I cannot post internals, which are worse.

sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

---

Still no link, no dates, no demographics.

Come on, you must have something better than that crap.

---

That's a JL poll from late June. And I cannot post internals, which are worse.

---

Sorry but I'm not taking your word for it.

Have to call it bunk on the available evidence.

For the record, I am not planning to vote for Trump in the primary, but I won't lie about numbers just to sell Trump hate Koolaid.

There's no way Trump gets the lead he has in GOP polls without a lot of women voter support. The math won't play those games.

Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Still no link, no dates, no demographics.

Come on, you must have something better than that crap.

---

That's a JL poll from late June. And I cannot post internals, which are worse.

---

Sorry but I'm not taking your word for it.

Have to call it bunk on the available evidence.

For the record, I am not planning to vote for Trump in the primary, but I won't lie about numbers just to sell Trump hate Koolaid.

There's no way Trump gets the lead he has in GOP polls without a lot of women voter support. The math won't play those games.

---

I just posted a recent poll for you on this very subject.

And, yes, I happen to have access to internal data. I've posted for years on this, and my data has proven reliable, including in 2020 and 2022, when much of it conflicted with conventional wisdom. I have a couple longtime friends with the RNC and still have one close friend who helps poll for Trump. I worked GOP campaigns while in grad school and also worked for the Romney family (not Mitt, although I knew him). Put that 2+2 together . . . .

All remain strong Trump supporters.

I also get data from my employer's DC folks, who I think are the best in the business.

Take a look at the NY Times poll

Cross-Tabs: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the Race for Republican Nominee for President - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

As of July 31, Trump had 44% favorability among GOP men and 42% among GOP women, with only 21% somewhat/very unfavorable among men and 24% among women

Trump gets 55% support among GOP men and 53% among GOP women. Again we see consistent support in all brackets among GOP voters,

Fairleigh Dickinson
FDU Poll: Trump Leads in Poll of Likely Republican Primary Voters | Fairleigh Dickinson University

says 59% of GOP men support Trump and 52% of GOP women.

Looking at the nation overall, The YouGov poll shows Trump with 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (46% Men, 36% Women) , against 57% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (54% Men, 61% Female)

In comparison, Joe Biden pulls 44% 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (45% Men, 44% Women) , against 53% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (55% Men, 52% Female)

At this point in the race that's even. Not that either Biden or Trump should be proud, but either could win from here.

econTabReport.pdf (yougov.com)

Oldbear83 said:

---

Take a look at the NY Times poll

Cross-Tabs: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the Race for Republican Nominee for President - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

As of July 31, Trump had 44% favorability among GOP men and 42% among GOP women, with only 21% somewhat/very unfavorable among men and 24% among women

Trump gets 55% support among GOP men and 53% among GOP women. Again we see consistent support in all brackets among GOP voters,

Fairleigh Dickinson
FDU Poll: Trump Leads in Poll of Likely Republican Primary Voters | Fairleigh Dickinson University

says 59% of GOP men support Trump and 52% of GOP women.

Looking at the nation overall, The YouGov poll shows Trump with 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (46% Men, 36% Women) , against 57% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (54% Men, 61% Female)

In comparison, Joe Biden pulls 44% 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (45% Men, 44% Women) , against 53% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (55% Men, 52% Female)

At this point in the race that's even. Not that either Biden or Trump should be proud, but either could win from here.

econTabReport.pdf (yougov.com)

---

Apologies if you were moving on to a different subject, but none of this touches on suburban women in a general election. And, as to GOP primary voters, 43% strong favorable for our likely nominee is not good.

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Take a look at the NY Times poll

Cross-Tabs: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the Race for Republican Nominee for President - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

As of July 31, Trump had 44% favorability among GOP men and 42% among GOP women, with only 21% somewhat/very unfavorable among men and 24% among women

Trump gets 55% support among GOP men and 53% among GOP women. Again we see consistent support in all brackets among GOP voters,

Fairleigh Dickinson
FDU Poll: Trump Leads in Poll of Likely Republican Primary Voters | Fairleigh Dickinson University

says 59% of GOP men support Trump and 52% of GOP women.

Looking at the nation overall, The YouGov poll shows Trump with 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (46% Men, 36% Women) , against 57% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (54% Men, 61% Female)

In comparison, Joe Biden pulls 44% 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (45% Men, 44% Women) , against 53% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (55% Men, 52% Female)

At this point in the race that's even. Not that either Biden or Trump should be proud, but either could win from here.

econTabReport.pdf (yougov.com)

---

Apologies if you were moving on to a different subject, but none of this touches on suburban women in a general election. And, as to GOP primary voters, 43% strong favorable for our likely nominee is not good.

---

It's a far sight more detailed and relevant than pointing to 2020 and claiming nothing has changed.

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Take a look at the NY Times poll

Cross-Tabs: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the Race for Republican Nominee for President - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

As of July 31, Trump had 44% favorability among GOP men and 42% among GOP women, with only 21% somewhat/very unfavorable among men and 24% among women

Trump gets 55% support among GOP men and 53% among GOP women. Again we see consistent support in all brackets among GOP voters,

Fairleigh Dickinson
FDU Poll: Trump Leads in Poll of Likely Republican Primary Voters | Fairleigh Dickinson University

says 59% of GOP men support Trump and 52% of GOP women.

Looking at the nation overall, The YouGov poll shows Trump with 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (46% Men, 36% Women) , against 57% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (54% Men, 61% Female)

In comparison, Joe Biden pulls 44% 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (45% Men, 44% Women) , against 53% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (55% Men, 52% Female)

At this point in the race that's even. Not that either Biden or Trump should be proud, but either could win from here.

econTabReport.pdf (yougov.com)

---

Apologies if you were moving on to a different subject, but none of this touches on suburban women in a general election. And, as to GOP primary voters, 43% strong favorable for our likely nominee is not good.

---

It's a far sight more detailed and relevant than pointing to 2020 and claiming nothing has changed.

---

Again, I posted data from a month and a half ago on the very subject you raised - suburban women. And this is Trump's and his campaign's greatest concern.

You respond with primary polls - which BTW show Trump with only 43% strong approvals among GOP voters.

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Take a look at the NY Times poll

Cross-Tabs: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the Race for Republican Nominee for President - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

As of July 31, Trump had 44% favorability among GOP men and 42% among GOP women, with only 21% somewhat/very unfavorable among men and 24% among women

Trump gets 55% support among GOP men and 53% among GOP women. Again we see consistent support in all brackets among GOP voters,

Fairleigh Dickinson
FDU Poll: Trump Leads in Poll of Likely Republican Primary Voters | Fairleigh Dickinson University

says 59% of GOP men support Trump and 52% of GOP women.

Looking at the nation overall, The YouGov poll shows Trump with 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (46% Men, 36% Women) , against 57% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (54% Men, 61% Female)

In comparison, Joe Biden pulls 44% 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (45% Men, 44% Women) , against 53% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (55% Men, 52% Female)

At this point in the race that's even. Not that either Biden or Trump should be proud, but either could win from here.

econTabReport.pdf (yougov.com)

---

Apologies if you were moving on to a different subject, but none of this touches on suburban women in a general election. And, as to GOP primary voters, 43% strong favorable for our likely nominee is not good.

---

It's a far sight more detailed and relevant than pointing to 2020 and claiming nothing has changed.

---

Again, I posted data from a month and a half ago on the very subject you raised - suburban women. And this is Trump's and his campaign's greatest concern.

You respond with primary polls - which BTW show Trump with only 43% strong approvals among GOP voters.

---

You posted a screenshot and admitted you had no details.

I went to multiple polls from the last 2 weeks, posted links and cited the relevant portions.

Seems like you are flailing there, Francis.

And by the way, the Daily Mail is not even American.

Not a compelling source, pal.

Jonah Goldberg just went on CNN and delivered one of the dumbest takes in his long career of dumb political commentary:

"Small donors are actually one of the biggest problems for democracy and the GOP."

Goldberg and his ilk would rather a small handful of rich elites run the… pic.twitter.com/bjRtog6PA7

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 10, 2023

I'm sure Mr. Goldberg, like the guy who put up this sign, meant well ...

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

And by the way, the Daily Mail is not even American.

Not a compelling source, pal.

---

They were not the source. They reported on the poll.

How about Insider Advantage, a traditionally Trump leaning Pollster, July 31 - August 1: Biden ahead 57-37 among women.

And Economist/You Gov, July 22-25: Biden up 6 in the burbs.

Glad to post many more, but you'll get bored b/c they all show the same thing and are consistent with the internals.

---

Again, links please. I prefer not to rely on headlines, especially cherry-picked ones.

This is why I posted a variety of polls, including two known for not being pro-Trump.

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

And by the way, the Daily Mail is not even American.

Not a compelling source, pal.

---

They were not the source. They reported on the poll.

How about Insider Advantage, a traditionally Trump leaning Pollster, July 31 - August 1: Biden ahead 57-37 among women.

And Economist/You Gov, July 22-25: Biden up 6 in the burbs.

Glad to post many more, but you'll get bored b/c they all show the same thing and are consistent with the internals.

---

Again, links please. I prefer not to rely on headlines, especially cherry-picked ones.

This is why I posted a variety of polls, including two known for not being pro-Trump.

---

Sorry, I would if I could. I don't have links. I get the tabs sent to me in PDFs. I'm guessing you can find them on RealClearPolitics or 538.

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

And by the way, the Daily Mail is not even American.

Not a compelling source, pal.

---

They were not the source. They reported on the poll.

How about Insider Advantage, a traditionally Trump leaning Pollster, July 31 - August 1: Biden ahead 57-37 among women.

And Economist/You Gov, July 22-25: Biden up 6 in the burbs.

Glad to post many more, but you'll get bored b/c they all show the same thing and are consistent with the internals.

---

Again, links please. I prefer not to rely on headlines, especially cherry-picked ones.

This is why I posted a variety of polls, including two known for not being pro-Trump.

---

Sorry, I would if I could. I don't have links. I get the tabs sent to me in PDFs. I'm guessing you can find them on RealClearPolitics or 538.

---

Considering this is 14+ months before the election,. there's a long way to go.

I continue to hope that Trump's present lead is a result of the court hype, and that the primaries will produce a GOP nominee who will be worthy of our trust.

But I also intend to counter the lies sold by the MSM about what will happen in 2024. Checking the details in polls against the same polls in the time relative to 2016 and 2020.

There's no end of people selling opinion, and if you look long enough you can find a poll somewhere which says what you want to hear. That's why the demographic details matter.

Suburban women, for example, is not so precise a term as you may think. CBS included metro Chicago as 'suburban' in 2020, and the same for Philadelphia. Siena and the NYT use different standards for that designation, and it gets different with Rasmussen and the HarrisX polls.

For background, I started working with polls in 2000, shortly before I started writing for Polipundit. I learned the different ways pollsters work, such as the fact that university polls oversample young voters because that's who they can more easily reach, while polls with longer histories tend to oversample older voters when the depend on RDD. The jury is still out on mixing media, by the way. A poll which mixes phone results with online results to produce a greater sample size is mixing methodologies, which for a long time was strongly discouraged by stat purists.

My point is that its fun to discuss polls, but a serious analysis has to wait for something closer to the event. "Likely voter" in August a year plus before the election has no real meaning, after all.

4th and Inches said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

I've been very open about my disdain for Trump since J6. But polls are polls, and internals are internals. And I've never allowed my personal views to taint my political analysis (or intel).

Again, I ask, do you actually think he's increased his suburban women support since J6?

---

basically, suburban women dont like the current GOP canidates listed vs sleepy grandpa Biden(hes not mean)

---

That graphic is not terribly strong evidence that Trump is the worst of all options.

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

I've been very open about my disdain for Trump since J6. But polls are polls, and internals are internals. And I've never allowed my personal views to taint my political analysis (or intel).

Again, I ask, do you actually think he's increased his suburban women support since J6?

---

basically, suburban women dont like the current GOP canidates listed vs sleepy grandpa Biden(hes not mean)

---

That graphic is not terribly strong evidence that Trump is the worst of all options.

---

nope, its evidence that the GOP in general is losing part of its base. The female vote is a block they cannot afford to lose

4th and Inches said:

---

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

---

A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

---

I've been very open about my disdain for Trump since J6. But polls are polls, and internals are internals. And I've never allowed my personal views to taint my political analysis (or intel).

Again, I ask, do you actually think he's increased his suburban women support since J6?

---

basically, suburban women dont like the current GOP canidates listed vs sleepy grandpa Biden(hes not mean)

---

That graphic is not terribly strong evidence that Trump is the worst of all options.

---

nope, its evidence that the GOP in general is losing part of its base. The female vote is a block they cannot afford to lose

---

Women are not part of the GOP base. They are a blue demographic, always trending Dem. Soccer moms....Dem voters... Gop always has to offset by winning the men's vote, and typically do although not always by enough. That dynamic has existed for many decades, fluctuating within generally predictable ranges. And if you remove black women from the equation, the "women vote"typically looks a lot better for the GOP.

My initial posting is noted the small irony that Trump has historically larger problems with the "women vote" yet one of his strongest bases of support in the GOP are.....Republican Women. Clearly, the anti-Trump arguments made on this board are not having an impact on Republican women. What is it about Republican women that is so at odds with female voters at large? DeSantis has to crack that riddle if he has a prayer. And, as I predicted, the electability argument is a rubber bullet. It might gain some purchase next spring if the polling starts to yawn epically worse for Trump, but it's a waste of oxygen to mention it at this point in time because it is not moving any needles whatsoever. In fact, the growth of Trump's GOP support over the last 8 months indicates that about 2 out of 3 GOP voters flatly reject it, think its wrong, etc.....

And I think the reason why is obvious - it completely exonerates Biden from any accountability whatsoever. Voters, particularly voters in the middle, do not think/act that way. The idea that the Biden record is such that he will retain or grow his advantage with the women vote (or any other demographic) in 2024 is specious.

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

---

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

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A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

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I've been very open about my disdain for Trump since J6. But polls are polls, and internals are internals. And I've never allowed my personal views to taint my political analysis (or intel).

Again, I ask, do you actually think he's increased his suburban women support since J6?

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basically, suburban women dont like the current GOP canidates listed vs sleepy grandpa Biden(hes not mean)

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That graphic is not terribly strong evidence that Trump is the worst of all options.

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I did not post it to make that point, but I do disagree with you. Trump, to say the least, is a known commodity. Primary challengers are not - even though to folks like us who follow politics that is hard to believe. At this stage, primary challengers should not be performing nearly this well in general election polls. General election voters who are aware of these challengers mostly are aware of only their negatives, especially GOP candidates. Again, I did not post for that reason, but I would expect Desantis and Scott, for example, to be polling awful (and far below Trump) with suburban women at this stage.

And, again, the Trump campaign itself is most concerned with his dropping numbers with suburban women.

Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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And by the way, the Daily Mail is not even American.

Not a compelling source, pal.

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They were not the source. They reported on the poll.

How about Insider Advantage, a traditionally Trump leaning Pollster, July 31 - August 1: Biden ahead 57-37 among women.

And Economist/You Gov, July 22-25: Biden up 6 in the burbs.

Glad to post many more, but you'll get bored b/c they all show the same thing and are consistent with the internals.

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Again, links please. I prefer not to rely on headlines, especially cherry-picked ones.

This is why I posted a variety of polls, including two known for not being pro-Trump.

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Sorry, I would if I could. I don't have links. I get the tabs sent to me in PDFs. I'm guessing you can find them on RealClearPolitics or 538.

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Considering this is 14+ months before the election,. there's a long way to go.

I continue to hope that Trump's present lead is a result of the court hype, and that the primaries will produce a GOP nominee who will be worthy of our trust.

But I also intend to counter the lies sold by the MSM about what will happen in 2024. Checking the details in polls against the same polls in the time relative to 2016 and 2020.

There's no end of people selling opinion, and if you look long enough you can find a poll somewhere which says what you want to hear. That's why the demographic details matter.

Suburban women, for example, is not so precise a term as you may think. CBS included metro Chicago as 'suburban' in 2020, and the same for Philadelphia. Siena and the NYT use different standards for that designation, and it gets different with Rasmussen and the HarrisX polls.

For background, I started working with polls in 2000, shortly before I started writing for Polipundit. I learned the different ways pollsters work, such as the fact that university polls oversample young voters because that's who they can more easily reach, while polls with longer histories tend to oversample older voters when the depend on RDD. The jury is still out on mixing media, by the way. A poll which mixes phone results with online results to produce a greater sample size is mixing methodologies, which for a long time was strongly discouraged by stat purists.

My point is that its fun to discuss polls, but a serious analysis has to wait for something closer to the event. "Likely voter" in August a year plus before the election has no real meaning, after all.

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Very good points here, thanks.

Pollsters have struggled with how to define suburbia for a long time. As you point out, if you include those areas literally bordering major cities (strong Dem), they share little in common with what we've traditionally considered a suburb. But the same can be said about exurbs, which are strong GOP. It definitely is an inexact science. On the other hand, if you define broadly, as modern pollsters do, it still shows trends - as does polling in general.

sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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And by the way, the Daily Mail is not even American.

Not a compelling source, pal.

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They were not the source. They reported on the poll.

How about Insider Advantage, a traditionally Trump leaning Pollster, July 31 - August 1: Biden ahead 57-37 among women.

And Economist/You Gov, July 22-25: Biden up 6 in the burbs.

Glad to post many more, but you'll get bored b/c they all show the same thing and are consistent with the internals.

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Again, links please. I prefer not to rely on headlines, especially cherry-picked ones.

This is why I posted a variety of polls, including two known for not being pro-Trump.

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Sorry, I would if I could. I don't have links. I get the tabs sent to me in PDFs. I'm guessing you can find them on RealClearPolitics or 538.

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Considering this is 14+ months before the election,. there's a long way to go.

I continue to hope that Trump's present lead is a result of the court hype, and that the primaries will produce a GOP nominee who will be worthy of our trust.

But I also intend to counter the lies sold by the MSM about what will happen in 2024. Checking the details in polls against the same polls in the time relative to 2016 and 2020.

There's no end of people selling opinion, and if you look long enough you can find a poll somewhere which says what you want to hear. That's why the demographic details matter.

Suburban women, for example, is not so precise a term as you may think. CBS included metro Chicago as 'suburban' in 2020, and the same for Philadelphia. Siena and the NYT use different standards for that designation, and it gets different with Rasmussen and the HarrisX polls.

For background, I started working with polls in 2000, shortly before I started writing for Polipundit. I learned the different ways pollsters work, such as the fact that university polls oversample young voters because that's who they can more easily reach, while polls with longer histories tend to oversample older voters when the depend on RDD. The jury is still out on mixing media, by the way. A poll which mixes phone results with online results to produce a greater sample size is mixing methodologies, which for a long time was strongly discouraged by stat purists.

My point is that its fun to discuss polls, but a serious analysis has to wait for something closer to the event. "Likely voter" in August a year plus before the election has no real meaning, after all.

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Very good points here, thanks.

Pollsters have struggled with how to define suburbia for a long time. As you point out, if you include those areas literally bordering major cities (strong Dem), they share little in common with what we've traditionally considered a suburb. But the same can be said about exurbs, which are strong GOP. It definitely is an inexact science. On the other hand, if you define broadly, as modern pollsters do, it still shows trends - as does polling in general.

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Thanks sombear. I have always loved political polls, ever since I learned how a sample as small as 800 people could accurately predict the outcome of a state election more than a month ahead of the ballot counting. I learned about trends and of course how sometimes the outlier reflects an early trend.

I also think a lot of people ignore the shadow effect in polls. That is, say you have two candidates, one is at 45% support and the other is at 41%. With a 3.5% standard MOE stated in most polls, it would appear that the guy at 45% is outside the margin of error, but between the two candidates they only account for 86% of the vote. People who are not locked in to one of the two major party candidates often change their mind over time, so you have to consider them in making any projections.

That's part of what made 2020 weird. Trump actually increased his vote share in most demographic categories in 2020 from 2016, but the percent of voters not supporting R or D dropped from 9.4% to 1.9%, unprecedented in Presidential elections.

JOE MANCHIN:

I'm thinking "very seriously" about leaving the Democrat party and becoming an independent. pic.twitter.com/iWGGyntubo

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) August 11, 2023

Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Still no link, no dates, no demographics.

Come on, you must have something better than that crap.

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That's a JL poll from late June. And I cannot post internals, which are worse.

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Sorry but I'm not taking your word for it.

Have to call it bunk on the available evidence.

For the record, I am not planning to vote for Trump in the primary, but I won't lie about numbers just to sell Trump hate Koolaid.

There's no way Trump gets the lead he has in GOP polls without a lot of women voter support. The math won't play those games.

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Purposely sticking his hard head in the sand. Why am I not surprised?

Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Still no link, no dates, no demographics.

Come on, you must have something better than that crap.

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That's a JL poll from late June. And I cannot post internals, which are worse.

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Sorry but I'm not taking your word for it.

Have to call it bunk on the available evidence.

For the record, I am not planning to vote for Trump in the primary, but I won't lie about numbers just to sell Trump hate Koolaid.

There's no way Trump gets the lead he has in GOP polls without a lot of women voter support. The math won't play those games.

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Ah changing the subject, I see.

For the record, nobody said Trump didn't have support among women. What they said is he doesn't have the support that the democrat nominee has among suburban women.

sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Take a look at the NY Times poll

Cross-Tabs: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the Race for Republican Nominee for President - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

As of July 31, Trump had 44% favorability among GOP men and 42% among GOP women, with only 21% somewhat/very unfavorable among men and 24% among women

Trump gets 55% support among GOP men and 53% among GOP women. Again we see consistent support in all brackets among GOP voters,

Fairleigh Dickinson
FDU Poll: Trump Leads in Poll of Likely Republican Primary Voters | Fairleigh Dickinson University

says 59% of GOP men support Trump and 52% of GOP women.

Looking at the nation overall, The YouGov poll shows Trump with 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (46% Men, 36% Women) , against 57% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (54% Men, 61% Female)

In comparison, Joe Biden pulls 44% 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (45% Men, 44% Women) , against 53% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (55% Men, 52% Female)

At this point in the race that's even. Not that either Biden or Trump should be proud, but either could win from here.

econTabReport.pdf (yougov.com)

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Apologies if you were moving on to a different subject, but none of this touches on suburban women in a general election. And, as to GOP primary voters, 43% strong favorable for our likely nominee is not good.

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Yup. Classic tactic of trying to move the goalposts when you're losing an argument

Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Take a look at the NY Times poll

Cross-Tabs: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the Race for Republican Nominee for President - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

As of July 31, Trump had 44% favorability among GOP men and 42% among GOP women, with only 21% somewhat/very unfavorable among men and 24% among women

Trump gets 55% support among GOP men and 53% among GOP women. Again we see consistent support in all brackets among GOP voters,

Fairleigh Dickinson
FDU Poll: Trump Leads in Poll of Likely Republican Primary Voters | Fairleigh Dickinson University

says 59% of GOP men support Trump and 52% of GOP women.

Looking at the nation overall, The YouGov poll shows Trump with 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (46% Men, 36% Women) , against 57% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (54% Men, 61% Female)

In comparison, Joe Biden pulls 44% 40% Somewhat or Very Favorable (45% Men, 44% Women) , against 53% Somewhat or Very Unfavorable (55% Men, 52% Female)

At this point in the race that's even. Not that either Biden or Trump should be proud, but either could win from here.

econTabReport.pdf (yougov.com)

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Apologies if you were moving on to a different subject, but none of this touches on suburban women in a general election. And, as to GOP primary voters, 43% strong favorable for our likely nominee is not good.

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It's a far sight more detailed and relevant than pointing to 2020 and claiming nothing has changed.

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Again, I posted data from a month and a half ago on the very subject you raised - suburban women. And this is Trump's and his campaign's greatest concern.

You respond with primary polls - which BTW show Trump with only 43% strong approvals among GOP voters.

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Seems like you are flailing there, Francis.

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Stop projecting. You're getting you ass kicked by sombear on this thread. He's running circles around your ever evolving argument.