2024

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Oldbear83
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In reply to Mothra • 9:45a, 8/21/23
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Sam Lowry
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In reply to whiterock • 11:35a, 8/21/23
whiterock said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Cobretti said:
The Dems will see to it that Donald Trump will never, ever win another election. By any means necessary, - legal and/ or illegal. The blueprint from the 2020 Election will be repeated. Who is going to stop them? Nobody.
I can understand where you are coming from on that question.

But what Republican WOULD the Dems "allow" to get elected?

If you believe that part in bold, the you are tacitly admitting that the GOP will never win another election due to the system being rigged against them.
That's going to be the excuse for every defeat from here on out. It obviates any need to re-think Republican strategy, which is actually quite convenient...for the Democrats.
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KaiBear
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In reply to Mothra • 11:46a, 8/21/23
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Biden


By even more 'votes' than in 2020.
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 12:29p, 8/21/23
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
Fair point. I've often (and subjectively) opined that any incumbent with less than 70% primary support is in showing weakness with the base on one or more issues. (Specifically was referring to Cornyn, whoat that time entered the primaries with support in the high 50's.) But then Cornyn won primary and general, so the assessments on such things are perhaps more important for understanding the complexion of the primary electorate than looking at the general. In Cornyn's case, it meant he had some discontent within the party base for votes & rhetoric (but not enough to cause erosion of turnout.)

but more importantly with respect to Trump (who was at 60% in a CBS poll released yesterday), look at the rest of the field. How does a guy at 12% (give or take ten points) do any better in turnout in the general? Moreover, Trump's problem is not Cornyn's problem. Trump WILL bring the base, energized in a way a Cornyn-type candidate finds unseemly. Trump's problems will be with with the softer voters in the middle, who will be facing a real dilemma when staring down at a ballot with the names Trump and Biden on it. Some will even throw their vote away on a notional third candidate just so they can brag that they were too principled to participate meaningfully in the process, rather than act like an adult to make compromises to join coalitions that can get things done.
No other Republican will turnout Trump's base like he will. Let's get that out of the way. No chance, and it's not close.

But, the hope would be that another candidate would (1) do well enough with that base, and (2) bring back into the fold conservative never Trumpers, suburbanites, and moderates. I think that's realistic. It only works with someone like Biden running, so even those intensely loyal to Trump cannot bear to sit back and watch Biden win again.

Unfortunately for Trump, the Never Trump contingent has roughly doubled in size since J6. I and several in my family are among the newer members . . . . I understand your argument. I subscribed to the bilateral choice doctrine in 2016 and 2020. I just won't be able to do it this time.

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Sam Lowry
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In reply to sombear • 12:34p, 8/21/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
Fair point. I've often (and subjectively) opined that any incumbent with less than 70% primary support is in showing weakness with the base on one or more issues. (Specifically was referring to Cornyn, whoat that time entered the primaries with support in the high 50's.) But then Cornyn won primary and general, so the assessments on such things are perhaps more important for understanding the complexion of the primary electorate than looking at the general. In Cornyn's case, it meant he had some discontent within the party base for votes & rhetoric (but not enough to cause erosion of turnout.)

but more importantly with respect to Trump (who was at 60% in a CBS poll released yesterday), look at the rest of the field. How does a guy at 12% (give or take ten points) do any better in turnout in the general? Moreover, Trump's problem is not Cornyn's problem. Trump WILL bring the base, energized in a way a Cornyn-type candidate finds unseemly. Trump's problems will be with with the softer voters in the middle, who will be facing a real dilemma when staring down at a ballot with the names Trump and Biden on it. Some will even throw their vote away on a notional third candidate just so they can brag that they were too principled to participate meaningfully in the process, rather than act like an adult to make compromises to join coalitions that can get things done.
No other Republican will turnout Trump's base like he will. Let's get that out of the way. No chance, and it's not close.

But, the hope would be that another candidate would (1) do well enough with that base, and (2) bring back into the fold conservative never Trumpers, suburbanites, and moderates. I think that's realistic. It only works with someone like Biden running, so even those intensely loyal to Trump cannot bear to sit back and watch Biden win again.

Unfortunately for Trump, the Never Trump contingent has roughly doubled in size since J6. I and several in my family are among the newer members . . . . I understand your argument. I subscribed to the bilateral choice doctrine in 2016 and 2020. I just won't be able to do it this time.

Voted for him once...never again.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 12:36p, 8/21/23
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
Fair point. I've often (and subjectively) opined that any incumbent with less than 70% primary support is in showing weakness with the base on one or more issues. (Specifically was referring to Cornyn, whoat that time entered the primaries with support in the high 50's.) But then Cornyn won primary and general, so the assessments on such things are perhaps more important for understanding the complexion of the primary electorate than looking at the general. In Cornyn's case, it meant he had some discontent within the party base for votes & rhetoric (but not enough to cause erosion of turnout.)

but more importantly with respect to Trump (who was at 60% in a CBS poll released yesterday), look at the rest of the field. How does a guy at 12% (give or take ten points) do any better in turnout in the general? Moreover, Trump's problem is not Cornyn's problem. Trump WILL bring the base, energized in a way a Cornyn-type candidate finds unseemly. Trump's problems will be with with the softer voters in the middle, who will be facing a real dilemma when staring down at a ballot with the names Trump and Biden on it. Some will even throw their vote away on a notional third candidate just so they can brag that they were too principled to participate meaningfully in the process, rather than act like an adult to make compromises to join coalitions that can get things done.
No other Republican will turnout Trump's base like he will. Let's get that out of the way. No chance, and it's not close.

But, the hope would be that another candidate would (1) do well enough with that base, and (2) bring back into the fold conservative never Trumpers, suburbanites, and moderates. I think that's realistic. It only works with someone like Biden running, so even those intensely loyal to Trump cannot bear to sit back and watch Biden win again.

Unfortunately for Trump, the Never Trump contingent has roughly doubled in size since J6. I and several in my family are among the newer members . . . . I understand your argument. I subscribed to the bilateral choice doctrine in 2016 and 2020. I just won't be able to do it this time.

Voted for him once...never again.
We know, Sam. You're all-in for Putin, as evidenced by the Ukraine War thread.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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sombear
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 12:45p, 8/21/23
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
Fair point. I've often (and subjectively) opined that any incumbent with less than 70% primary support is in showing weakness with the base on one or more issues. (Specifically was referring to Cornyn, whoat that time entered the primaries with support in the high 50's.) But then Cornyn won primary and general, so the assessments on such things are perhaps more important for understanding the complexion of the primary electorate than looking at the general. In Cornyn's case, it meant he had some discontent within the party base for votes & rhetoric (but not enough to cause erosion of turnout.)

but more importantly with respect to Trump (who was at 60% in a CBS poll released yesterday), look at the rest of the field. How does a guy at 12% (give or take ten points) do any better in turnout in the general? Moreover, Trump's problem is not Cornyn's problem. Trump WILL bring the base, energized in a way a Cornyn-type candidate finds unseemly. Trump's problems will be with with the softer voters in the middle, who will be facing a real dilemma when staring down at a ballot with the names Trump and Biden on it. Some will even throw their vote away on a notional third candidate just so they can brag that they were too principled to participate meaningfully in the process, rather than act like an adult to make compromises to join coalitions that can get things done.
No other Republican will turnout Trump's base like he will. Let's get that out of the way. No chance, and it's not close.

But, the hope would be that another candidate would (1) do well enough with that base, and (2) bring back into the fold conservative never Trumpers, suburbanites, and moderates. I think that's realistic. It only works with someone like Biden running, so even those intensely loyal to Trump cannot bear to sit back and watch Biden win again.

Unfortunately for Trump, the Never Trump contingent has roughly doubled in size since J6. I and several in my family are among the newer members . . . . I understand your argument. I subscribed to the bilateral choice doctrine in 2016 and 2020. I just won't be able to do it this time.

Voted for him once...never again.
Twice and donated $ . . . never again.
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Mothra
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In reply to sombear • 3:03p, 8/21/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
Fair point. I've often (and subjectively) opined that any incumbent with less than 70% primary support is in showing weakness with the base on one or more issues. (Specifically was referring to Cornyn, whoat that time entered the primaries with support in the high 50's.) But then Cornyn won primary and general, so the assessments on such things are perhaps more important for understanding the complexion of the primary electorate than looking at the general. In Cornyn's case, it meant he had some discontent within the party base for votes & rhetoric (but not enough to cause erosion of turnout.)

but more importantly with respect to Trump (who was at 60% in a CBS poll released yesterday), look at the rest of the field. How does a guy at 12% (give or take ten points) do any better in turnout in the general? Moreover, Trump's problem is not Cornyn's problem. Trump WILL bring the base, energized in a way a Cornyn-type candidate finds unseemly. Trump's problems will be with with the softer voters in the middle, who will be facing a real dilemma when staring down at a ballot with the names Trump and Biden on it. Some will even throw their vote away on a notional third candidate just so they can brag that they were too principled to participate meaningfully in the process, rather than act like an adult to make compromises to join coalitions that can get things done.
No other Republican will turnout Trump's base like he will. Let's get that out of the way. No chance, and it's not close.

But, the hope would be that another candidate would (1) do well enough with that base, and (2) bring back into the fold conservative never Trumpers, suburbanites, and moderates. I think that's realistic. It only works with someone like Biden running, so even those intensely loyal to Trump cannot bear to sit back and watch Biden win again.

Yup. And therein lies the problem. His sycophants - of which there are many - will turn out the primary vote, but he will be so unpopular among the general populace that he likely loses in a landslide.

What a sad state of affairs.
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In reply to KaiBear • 3:03p, 8/21/23
KaiBear said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Biden


By even more 'votes' than in 2020.
Agreed.
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 3:04p, 8/21/23
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
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3:08p, 8/21/23
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Mothra • 3:24p, 8/21/23
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
Read my answer again, you already quoted it.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Mothra
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 4:00p, 8/21/23
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
Read my answer again, you already quoted it.
So was reading your answer again supposed to tell me who would win if they ran right now? If so, I didn't see an answer.

If you're not willing to commit, I understand.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Mothra • 4:23p, 8/21/23
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
Read my answer again, you already quoted it.
So was reading your answer again supposed to tell me who would win if they ran right now? If so, I didn't see an answer.

If you're not willing to commit, I understand.
English is not your first language, then.

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Mothra
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 4:33p, 8/21/23
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
Read my answer again, you already quoted it.
So was reading your answer again supposed to tell me who would win if they ran right now? If so, I didn't see an answer.

If you're not willing to commit, I understand.
English is not your first language, then.

Or perhaps you're just a moron and coward who doesn't understand a hypothetical.

I understand if you're too big a puss to provide the answer. It's kind of what I expected, to be honest.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Mothra • 4:43p, 8/21/23
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
Read my answer again, you already quoted it.
So was reading your answer again supposed to tell me who would win if they ran right now? If so, I didn't see an answer.

If you're not willing to commit, I understand.
English is not your first language, then.

Or perhaps you're just a moron and coward who doesn't understand a hypothetical.

I understand if you're too big a puss to provide the answer. It's kind of what I expected, to be honest.
Ahhh, personal insults and invective again.

Doesn't speak well for your ability to address the topic, Mothra.

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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sombear
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4:53p, 8/21/23
Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."
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Mothra
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 5:02p, 8/21/23
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
Read my answer again, you already quoted it.
So was reading your answer again supposed to tell me who would win if they ran right now? If so, I didn't see an answer.

If you're not willing to commit, I understand.
English is not your first language, then.

Or perhaps you're just a moron and coward who doesn't understand a hypothetical.

I understand if you're too big a puss to provide the answer. It's kind of what I expected, to be honest.
Ahhh, personal insults and invective again.

Doesn't speak well for your ability to address the topic, Mothra.

I disagree. I think it was an appropriate response to your insult, jackass.

Who knew you were such a coward.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Mothra • 5:05p, 8/21/23
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
Read my answer again, you already quoted it.
So was reading your answer again supposed to tell me who would win if they ran right now? If so, I didn't see an answer.

If you're not willing to commit, I understand.
English is not your first language, then.

Or perhaps you're just a moron and coward who doesn't understand a hypothetical.

I understand if you're too big a puss to provide the answer. It's kind of what I expected, to be honest.
Ahhh, personal insults and invective again.

Doesn't speak well for your ability to address the topic, Mothra.

I disagree. I think it was an appropriate response to your insult, jackass.

Who knew you were such a coward.
More Biden-talk from Mothra.

Ah well. Somehow I will go on with my day ...
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Mothra
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 5:43p, 8/21/23
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
Read my answer again, you already quoted it.
So was reading your answer again supposed to tell me who would win if they ran right now? If so, I didn't see an answer.

If you're not willing to commit, I understand.
English is not your first language, then.

Or perhaps you're just a moron and coward who doesn't understand a hypothetical.

I understand if you're too big a puss to provide the answer. It's kind of what I expected, to be honest.
Ahhh, personal insults and invective again.

Doesn't speak well for your ability to address the topic, Mothra.

I disagree. I think it was an appropriate response to your insult, jackass.

Who knew you were such a coward.
More Biden-talk from Mothra.

Ah well. Somehow I will go on with my day ...
Let us know when you work up the nerve to make a prediction.
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Harrison Bergeron
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6:10p, 8/21/23
I had hoped the Trump obsession was overplayed by the usual disinformers. But this is nuts. We're toast.
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KaiBear
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 6:38p, 8/21/23
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
Fair point. I've often (and subjectively) opined that any incumbent with less than 70% primary support is in showing weakness with the base on one or more issues. (Specifically was referring to Cornyn, whoat that time entered the primaries with support in the high 50's.) But then Cornyn won primary and general, so the assessments on such things are perhaps more important for understanding the complexion of the primary electorate than looking at the general. In Cornyn's case, it meant he had some discontent within the party base for votes & rhetoric (but not enough to cause erosion of turnout.)

but more importantly with respect to Trump (who was at 60% in a CBS poll released yesterday), look at the rest of the field. How does a guy at 12% (give or take ten points) do any better in turnout in the general? Moreover, Trump's problem is not Cornyn's problem. Trump WILL bring the base, energized in a way a Cornyn-type candidate finds unseemly. Trump's problems will be with with the softer voters in the middle, who will be facing a real dilemma when staring down at a ballot with the names Trump and Biden on it. Some will even throw their vote away on a notional third candidate just so they can brag that they were too principled to participate meaningfully in the process, rather than act like an adult to make compromises to join coalitions that can get things done.
No other Republican will turnout Trump's base like he will. Let's get that out of the way. No chance, and it's not close.

But, the hope would be that another candidate would (1) do well enough with that base, and (2) bring back into the fold conservative never Trumpers, suburbanites, and moderates. I think that's realistic. It only works with someone like Biden running, so even those intensely loyal to Trump cannot bear to sit back and watch Biden win again.

Unfortunately for Trump, the Never Trump contingent has roughly doubled in size since J6. I and several in my family are among the newer members . . . . I understand your argument. I subscribed to the bilateral choice doctrine in 2016 and 2020. I just won't be able to do it this time.

Voted for him once...never again.
Voted for him twice.

Never again.
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whiterock
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In reply to Mothra • 3:29a, 8/22/23
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Right now, today....safest call would be a pretty close to a repeat of 2020. GA and AZ will probably come home and we'd fall short in the Great Lakes region. I think this poll is pretty close to the mean, and it's worth noting that RDS has lost a clear electability advantage.



That said, there are a few polls that show Trump up by that much or more now. And the trends are all working against Biden.

It will be a close election. Could go either way. All hands on deck.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 3:38a, 8/22/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
Fair point. I've often (and subjectively) opined that any incumbent with less than 70% primary support is in showing weakness with the base on one or more issues. (Specifically was referring to Cornyn, whoat that time entered the primaries with support in the high 50's.) But then Cornyn won primary and general, so the assessments on such things are perhaps more important for understanding the complexion of the primary electorate than looking at the general. In Cornyn's case, it meant he had some discontent within the party base for votes & rhetoric (but not enough to cause erosion of turnout.)

but more importantly with respect to Trump (who was at 60% in a CBS poll released yesterday), look at the rest of the field. How does a guy at 12% (give or take ten points) do any better in turnout in the general? Moreover, Trump's problem is not Cornyn's problem. Trump WILL bring the base, energized in a way a Cornyn-type candidate finds unseemly. Trump's problems will be with with the softer voters in the middle, who will be facing a real dilemma when staring down at a ballot with the names Trump and Biden on it. Some will even throw their vote away on a notional third candidate just so they can brag that they were too principled to participate meaningfully in the process, rather than act like an adult to make compromises to join coalitions that can get things done.
No other Republican will turnout Trump's base like he will. Let's get that out of the way. No chance, and it's not close.

But, the hope would be that another candidate would (1) do well enough with that base, and (2) bring back into the fold conservative never Trumpers, suburbanites, and moderates. I think that's realistic. It only works with someone like Biden running, so even those intensely loyal to Trump cannot bear to sit back and watch Biden win again.

Unfortunately for Trump, the Never Trump contingent has roughly doubled in size since J6. I and several in my family are among the newer members . . . . I understand your argument. I subscribed to the bilateral choice doctrine in 2016 and 2020. I just won't be able to do it this time.

sigh.....

"...The game of life is hard to play
I'm gonna lose it anyway
The losing card I'll someday lay
So this is all I have to say

Suicide is painless
It brings on many changes
And I can take or leave it if I please..."

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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 3:51a, 8/22/23
sombear said:
Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."
One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....

Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to KaiBear • 6:28a, 8/22/23
KaiBear said:
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
Fair point. I've often (and subjectively) opined that any incumbent with less than 70% primary support is in showing weakness with the base on one or more issues. (Specifically was referring to Cornyn, whoat that time entered the primaries with support in the high 50's.) But then Cornyn won primary and general, so the assessments on such things are perhaps more important for understanding the complexion of the primary electorate than looking at the general. In Cornyn's case, it meant he had some discontent within the party base for votes & rhetoric (but not enough to cause erosion of turnout.)

but more importantly with respect to Trump (who was at 60% in a CBS poll released yesterday), look at the rest of the field. How does a guy at 12% (give or take ten points) do any better in turnout in the general? Moreover, Trump's problem is not Cornyn's problem. Trump WILL bring the base, energized in a way a Cornyn-type candidate finds unseemly. Trump's problems will be with with the softer voters in the middle, who will be facing a real dilemma when staring down at a ballot with the names Trump and Biden on it. Some will even throw their vote away on a notional third candidate just so they can brag that they were too principled to participate meaningfully in the process, rather than act like an adult to make compromises to join coalitions that can get things done.
No other Republican will turnout Trump's base like he will. Let's get that out of the way. No chance, and it's not close.

But, the hope would be that another candidate would (1) do well enough with that base, and (2) bring back into the fold conservative never Trumpers, suburbanites, and moderates. I think that's realistic. It only works with someone like Biden running, so even those intensely loyal to Trump cannot bear to sit back and watch Biden win again.

Unfortunately for Trump, the Never Trump contingent has roughly doubled in size since J6. I and several in my family are among the newer members . . . . I understand your argument. I subscribed to the bilateral choice doctrine in 2016 and 2020. I just won't be able to do it this time.

Voted for him once...never again.
Voted for him twice.

Never again.
If he's on the general ballot. I'll be voting for Trump again. Better than letting the Democrats walk right back into the White House and continue their assault on the Bill of Rights
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:03a, 8/22/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."
One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....

Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.
I agree with all of the first paragraph and largely the second.
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whiterock
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9:45a, 8/22/23
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to Mothra • 9:52a, 8/22/23
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Way too soon to know. But if DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy et al want a serious chance to win, they need to connect with the GOP base far better than they have up to now.

I want a GOP primary season filled with energetic candidates with clear policies and ready to fight Biden's corruption.

No retreads of Romney or McCain, no ignoring the real damage to America by Biden's nepotism and the Democrats' sell-off of America to China.

I want to see candidates ready to fight Democrats head-on. Nothing less.
I don't think it's too early. If they ran now, how do you see it going?
Read my answer again, you already quoted it.
So was reading your answer again supposed to tell me who would win if they ran right now? If so, I didn't see an answer.

If you're not willing to commit, I understand.
English is not your first language, then.

Or perhaps you're just a moron and coward who doesn't understand a hypothetical.

I understand if you're too big a puss to provide the answer. It's kind of what I expected, to be honest.
Ahhh, personal insults and invective again.

Doesn't speak well for your ability to address the topic, Mothra.

I disagree. I think it was an appropriate response to your insult, jackass.

Who knew you were such a coward.
More Biden-talk from Mothra.

Ah well. Somehow I will go on with my day ...
Let us know when you work up the nerve to make a prediction.
I will predict that the Democrats will never allow Donald Trump to win another election. By any means necessary. Legal and illegal. Whatever it takes. Our election system is broken beyond repair.

Do you honestly believe half the country wants to vote for a man that CLEARLY has dementia/ Alzheimer's? Dems will create 95 million "votes" if they feel like they have to.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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Mothra
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In reply to whiterock • 12:30p, 8/22/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."
One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....

Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.
Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.
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Mothra
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In reply to whiterock • 12:32p, 8/22/23
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Right now, today....safest call would be a pretty close to a repeat of 2020. GA and AZ will probably come home and we'd fall short in the Great Lakes region. I think this poll is pretty close to the mean, and it's worth noting that RDS has lost a clear electability advantage.



That said, there are a few polls that show Trump up by that much or more now. And the trends are all working against Biden.

It will be a close election. Could go either way. All hands on deck.
I agree with your prediction - though I think it wouldn't be quite as close as it was in 2020.

Yet another reason that Trump would be a horrible candidate - though I have no doubt he will be the candidate.
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Osodecentx
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In reply to whiterock • 1:09p, 8/22/23
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Right now, today....safest call would be a pretty close to a repeat of 2020. GA and AZ will probably come home and we'd fall short in the Great Lakes region. I think this poll is pretty close to the mean, and it's worth noting that RDS has lost a clear electability advantage.



That said, there are a few polls that show Trump up by that much or more now. And the trends are all working against Biden.

It will be a close election. Could go either way. All hands on deck.
And if Biden isn't the candidate?
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Osodecentx • 1:31p, 8/22/23
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
Right now, today....safest call would be a pretty close to a repeat of 2020. GA and AZ will probably come home and we'd fall short in the Great Lakes region. I think this poll is pretty close to the mean, and it's worth noting that RDS has lost a clear electability advantage.



That said, there are a few polls that show Trump up by that much or more now. And the trends are all working against Biden.

It will be a close election. Could go either way. All hands on deck.
And if Biden isn't the candidate?
Who's your replacement for Big Guy Joe?
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Jack Bauer
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2:09p, 8/22/23
OUT: DEMOCRACY IS LITERALLY BEING THREATENED!!!

IN: Why is voting so important?


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4th and Inches
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 2:31p, 8/22/23
Jack Bauer said:
OUT: DEMOCRACY IS LITERALLY BEING THREATENED!!!

IN: Why is voting so important?


count every vote!!..
Just dont vote so much!
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