There's just no way he goes into any real jail. Is his secret service detail supposed to go into jail with him? IF they do anything they will put him on house arrest at Mar A Lago.Mothra said:I don't necessarily disagree on the RICO charges, but this same prosecutor has used the squishy RICO statute to obtain guilty convictions on pretty flimsy charges under RICO. And therein lies the problem - RICO is so squishy, it's a real danger to Trump, especially in front of a jury comprised mostly of Democrats. He should be very concerned about that one.whiterock said:The RICO stuff is a pile of wild-ass allegations turning every political campaign strategy session into a criminal enterprise.....it's an office-holder abusing power to indict an opponent on allegations that completely legal activity is somehow a criminal conspiracy because the office-holder doesn't like it. The whole thing, office holder and charges, are a dire threat to the First Amendment liberties of half the country.OsoCoreyell said:That would be great if it were true. Unfortunately, it's not even close to true.whiterock said:Mothra said:Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.whiterock said:One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....sombear said:
Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:
A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.
"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."
Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."
Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.
The problem with your last point there is that the charges against him are not supported by any evidence, either.
The documents charge is almost as bad, but I will allow there is more substance in that there does appear to be documents in the wrong place. But Trump will argue an affirmative defense and given the venue of the trial has a good chance of success.
Do you really think the courts are going to allow all this to come to trial before the election?
I'm skeptical.
Not that a conviction will matter much, or at least change any minds.
Contrary to your assertions, the documents charge isn't bad at all. It's virtually a slam dunk for the prosecutors. It's clear Trump violated the law here - yet another unforced error and self-inflicted wound on his part. As you said, Trump's only hope is he finds a jury that shares his politics.
The RICO case will indeed go to trial quickly. Trump can't do much to stop it. And while I agree with you a conviction won't matter much, how is Trump going to run for president if he is in a state prison in GA?
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May not be a state jail, but it most definitely will be in GA, since this is a state court charge. How does Trump run the country from a house arrest in GA?muddybrazos said:There's just no way he goes into any real jail. Is his secret service detail supposed to go into jail with him? IF they do anything they will put him on house arrest at Mar A Lago.Mothra said:I don't necessarily disagree on the RICO charges, but this same prosecutor has used the squishy RICO statute to obtain guilty convictions on pretty flimsy charges under RICO. And therein lies the problem - RICO is so squishy, it's a real danger to Trump, especially in front of a jury comprised mostly of Democrats. He should be very concerned about that one.whiterock said:The RICO stuff is a pile of wild-ass allegations turning every political campaign strategy session into a criminal enterprise.....it's an office-holder abusing power to indict an opponent on allegations that completely legal activity is somehow a criminal conspiracy because the office-holder doesn't like it. The whole thing, office holder and charges, are a dire threat to the First Amendment liberties of half the country.OsoCoreyell said:That would be great if it were true. Unfortunately, it's not even close to true.whiterock said:Mothra said:Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.whiterock said:One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....sombear said:
Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:
A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.
"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."
Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."
Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.
The problem with your last point there is that the charges against him are not supported by any evidence, either.
The documents charge is almost as bad, but I will allow there is more substance in that there does appear to be documents in the wrong place. But Trump will argue an affirmative defense and given the venue of the trial has a good chance of success.
Do you really think the courts are going to allow all this to come to trial before the election?
I'm skeptical.
Not that a conviction will matter much, or at least change any minds.
Contrary to your assertions, the documents charge isn't bad at all. It's virtually a slam dunk for the prosecutors. It's clear Trump violated the law here - yet another unforced error and self-inflicted wound on his part. As you said, Trump's only hope is he finds a jury that shares his politics.
The RICO case will indeed go to trial quickly. Trump can't do much to stop it. And while I agree with you a conviction won't matter much, how is Trump going to run for president if he is in a state prison in GA?
Dems kicked poll leading Bernie to the curb twice. Gave his a few bucks to stay quiet and bingo, all was forgiven.RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Do you honestly think the Democrats will be allowed to push aside Kamala and risk burning the country down? No way. They bring in the Cafeteria Czar. Michelle Obama hates our country more than Biden.
A jilted Kamala is even less of a threat to party unity.
She will get compensated one way or another though the price tag will be much larger.
"It's not that everybody hates Trump. It's that half the country hates Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, while less than half of the country - but a majority of Republicans - think the guy can do no wrong."
I keep seeing variations of this claim, and the more I think on it, it's complete BS.
First, from what I see and hear, most of the nation has no real opinion on Trump. It's only the political junkies and those invested with something to lose who care one way or the other.
But even there, the breakdown is more complex. Again, judging from what I have seen and heard from real people, there are people who will vote for Trump and no one else, people who will never vote for Trump no matter what, Republicans who will not vote for Trump in the Primaries but will support Trump in the General Campaign if he wins the nomination, and others.
This statement also ignores the incredibly bad job done by Biden as POTUS. If Biden is the Democrats' nominee, some will consider the GOP nominee out of sheer self-preservation. If the Democrats decide to drop Biden, then there are the questions of hoe to deal with Harris and her Identity Politics mob, questions about whether a popular face like Newsome is up to the challenge of a national race, and other important considerations.
The phrase strikes me as though the person writing it doesn't really want to have to think through the whole mess.
I keep seeing variations of this claim, and the more I think on it, it's complete BS.
First, from what I see and hear, most of the nation has no real opinion on Trump. It's only the political junkies and those invested with something to lose who care one way or the other.
But even there, the breakdown is more complex. Again, judging from what I have seen and heard from real people, there are people who will vote for Trump and no one else, people who will never vote for Trump no matter what, Republicans who will not vote for Trump in the Primaries but will support Trump in the General Campaign if he wins the nomination, and others.
This statement also ignores the incredibly bad job done by Biden as POTUS. If Biden is the Democrats' nominee, some will consider the GOP nominee out of sheer self-preservation. If the Democrats decide to drop Biden, then there are the questions of hoe to deal with Harris and her Identity Politics mob, questions about whether a popular face like Newsome is up to the challenge of a national race, and other important considerations.
The phrase strikes me as though the person writing it doesn't really want to have to think through the whole mess.
"First, from what I see and hear, most of the nation has no real opinion on Trump." I literally laughed out loud when I read this. You clearly don't get out very much.Oldbear83 said:
"It's not that everybody hates Trump. It's that half the country hates Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, while less than half of the country - but a majority of Republicans - think the guy can do no wrong."
I keep seeing variations of this claim, and the more I think on it, it's complete BS.
First, from what I see and hear, most of the nation has no real opinion on Trump. It's only the political junkies and those invested with something to lose who care one way or the other.
But even there, the breakdown is more complex. Again, judging from what I have seen and heard from real people, there are people who will vote for Trump and no one else, people who will never vote for Trump no matter what, Republicans who will not vote for Trump in the Primaries but will support Trump in the General Campaign if he wins the nomination, and others.
This statement also ignores the incredibly bad job done by Biden as POTUS. If Biden is the Democrats' nominee, some will consider the GOP nominee out of sheer self-preservation. If the Democrats decide to drop Biden, then there are the questions of hoe to deal with Harris and her Identity Politics mob, questions about whether a popular face like Newsome is up to the challenge of a national race, and other important considerations.
The phrase strikes me as though the person writing it doesn't really want to have to think through the whole mess.
I would suggest visiting parts of the country that vote overwhelmingly Democrat, if you don't believe that there is a visceral hatred of Trump among a great many people in those parts of the country. Having lived in CA a couple of years, I can tell you with absolute certainty that a great many Californians despise the man. Listen to pundits who have lived in those areas, and they will tell you the same thing. Trump is indeed hated by a very large number of Americans. We see that in his disapproval rating all the time.
As I told another poster above, if your strategy is, well, they will hate Biden more than my extremely unpopular and unlikeable candidate, that's a terrible strategy for winning an election. It lost conservatives the election in 2020, and it will do so again in 2024.
You are clearly completely out of touch with what's going on in America in 2023. That is demonstrated in so many of your posts. This is but another.
Pride , power, and arrogance will not allow the Progressive Left to let Kamala quietly ride off into the night and allow the pretty boy Caucasian from California take what they are entitled to. All Hell will break loose. Their only option will be Michelle Obama. It will be okay for a black woman to screw over another black woman. Hardcore Dems will applaud the move, - Michelle Obama is more liberal than anyone in the party.KaiBear said:Dems kicked poll leading Bernie to the curb twice. Gave his a few bucks to stay quiet and bingo, all was forgiven.RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Do you honestly think the Democrats will be allowed to push aside Kamala and risk burning the country down? No way. They bring in the Cafeteria Czar. Michelle Obama hates our country more than Biden.
A jilted Kamala is even less of a threat to party unity.
She will get compensated one way or another though the price tag will be much larger.
Should Gavin Newsom be plugged in late, the circular firing squad will commence. Will be fun to watch.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"
-- Barack Obama
-- Barack Obama
Well, you are certainly consistent, Mothra. Never one to challenge your first assumption.
LOL. As if you challenge yours.Oldbear83 said:
Well, you are certainly consistent, Mothra. Never one to challenge your first assumption.
Anyone that thinks most of the nation doesn't have opinions on Trump is completely and totally clueless.
same way biden does from his basement in Delaware?Mothra said:May not be a state jail, but it most definitely will be in GA, since this is a state court charge. How does Trump run the country from a house arrest in GA?muddybrazos said:There's just no way he goes into any real jail. Is his secret service detail supposed to go into jail with him? IF they do anything they will put him on house arrest at Mar A Lago.Mothra said:I don't necessarily disagree on the RICO charges, but this same prosecutor has used the squishy RICO statute to obtain guilty convictions on pretty flimsy charges under RICO. And therein lies the problem - RICO is so squishy, it's a real danger to Trump, especially in front of a jury comprised mostly of Democrats. He should be very concerned about that one.whiterock said:The RICO stuff is a pile of wild-ass allegations turning every political campaign strategy session into a criminal enterprise.....it's an office-holder abusing power to indict an opponent on allegations that completely legal activity is somehow a criminal conspiracy because the office-holder doesn't like it. The whole thing, office holder and charges, are a dire threat to the First Amendment liberties of half the country.OsoCoreyell said:That would be great if it were true. Unfortunately, it's not even close to true.whiterock said:Mothra said:Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.whiterock said:One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....sombear said:
Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:
A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.
"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."
Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."
Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.
The problem with your last point there is that the charges against him are not supported by any evidence, either.
The documents charge is almost as bad, but I will allow there is more substance in that there does appear to be documents in the wrong place. But Trump will argue an affirmative defense and given the venue of the trial has a good chance of success.
Do you really think the courts are going to allow all this to come to trial before the election?
I'm skeptical.
Not that a conviction will matter much, or at least change any minds.
Contrary to your assertions, the documents charge isn't bad at all. It's virtually a slam dunk for the prosecutors. It's clear Trump violated the law here - yet another unforced error and self-inflicted wound on his part. As you said, Trump's only hope is he finds a jury that shares his politics.
The RICO case will indeed go to trial quickly. Trump can't do much to stop it. And while I agree with you a conviction won't matter much, how is Trump going to run for president if he is in a state prison in GA?
Adopt-a-Bear 2024
#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs
#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs
#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
Think about the fact that, while he may well lose that lead by the time of the convention, at this time Trump is blowing the doors off his rivals in the GOP right now.Mothra said:LOL. As if you challenge yours.Oldbear83 said:
Well, you are certainly consistent, Mothra. Never one to challenge your first assumption.
Anyone that thinks most of the nation doesn't have opinions on Trump is completely and totally clueless.
I really don't think they are all 'MAGA' types. do you?
And if not, that shows my point. There are people who support Trump even when they don't like him, people who don't support him now but if he gets the nomination they will, and some who do not like Trump but if he gets the nomination they won't vote against him, they will sit out the election because the Democrats really are even worse.
But you do you, and I'm sure it's easy to just throw out bluster and arrogance - it's been the fashion since 2008, if you think about it.
this is sad...
BREAKING: Mitch McConnell inexplicably freezes up again while answering a question
— ALX 🇺🇸 (@alx) August 30, 2023
pic.twitter.com/9LVmhC9nZs
I already explained why I believe Trump is blowing the doors off his rivals. It's not because of people like us - conservatives who will be supporting other candidates in the primaries. It is indeed because of the MAGA-types. That is his groundswell of support in the party. And there is a LOT of MAGA. I have a number of them in my family - people with the Trump merch that think DeSantis is a RINO, and Trump is the only one who can stick it to the libs. Pretty much everyone I have talked to that has said they will support him for the nom fits well within that demographic. It's not reasonable conservatives. And that is of course what destroys your point - it's not reasonable conservatives that are responsible for his popularity at this point.Oldbear83 said:Think about the fact that, while he may well lose that lead by the time of the convention, at this time Trump is blowing the doors off his rivals in the GOP right now.Mothra said:LOL. As if you challenge yours.Oldbear83 said:
Well, you are certainly consistent, Mothra. Never one to challenge your first assumption.
Anyone that thinks most of the nation doesn't have opinions on Trump is completely and totally clueless.
I really don't think they are all 'MAGA' types. do you?
And if not, that shows my point. There are people who support Trump even when they don't like him, people who don't support him now but if he gets the nomination they will, and some who do not like Trump but if he gets the nomination they won't vote against him, they will sit out the election because the Democrats really are even worse.
But you do you, and I'm sure it's easy to just throw out bluster and arrogance - it's been the fashion since 2008, if you think about it.
Now, are there people who otherwise don't like him who will vote for him if he's the nom? Of course. I am one of those people. But make no mistake - that is not why he has so much support for the nom.
And I will once again point out that your position that people will support Trump even thought they don't like him also holds true for the Democrat candidate - people who don't like Biden/Newsom/Democrat will come out in droves to cast a vote for him because that's a vote against Trump. It happened in 2020, and it will happen again in 2024. Trump turns out the vote - both for and against him. And that is much more likely.
Wait and see.
Osodecentx said:I know what you meant. Do you know what I meant?4th and Inches said:thats not what i meant and you know it.. why cant any GOP canidate come close?Osodecentx said:The worst president in my lifetime is ahead of Trump in a poll 43-424th and Inches said:
As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?
2 incumbent presidents below 50%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Also, 43-42 is trash as neither are close to 50 and well within the MOE
Trump is running as an incumbent with a loyal following that seems to adore him more every time he is indicted, but he can't get above 50% approval. I thought his policies were good. Why is he in a dead heat with the worst president in my lifetime?
When Biden backs out the Dems will have a vigorous primary while Republicans watch their beloved DJT sit in court. Meanwhile Independents look for alternatives.
This is where Hunter will emerge.
My money is on Newsom or MichelleScottS said:Osodecentx said:I know what you meant. Do you know what I meant?4th and Inches said:thats not what i meant and you know it.. why cant any GOP canidate come close?Osodecentx said:The worst president in my lifetime is ahead of Trump in a poll 43-424th and Inches said:
As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?
2 incumbent presidents below 50%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Also, 43-42 is trash as neither are close to 50 and well within the MOE
Trump is running as an incumbent with a loyal following that seems to adore him more every time he is indicted, but he can't get above 50% approval. I thought his policies were good. Why is he in a dead heat with the worst president in my lifetime?
When Biden backs out the Dems will have a vigorous primary while Republicans watch their beloved DJT sit in court. Meanwhile Independents look for alternatives.
This is where Hunter will emerge.
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:Pride , power, and arrogance will not allow the Progressive Left to let Kamala quietly ride off into the night and allow the pretty boy Caucasian from California take what they are entitled to. All Hell will break loose. Their only option will be Michelle Obama. It will be okay for a black woman to screw over another black woman. Hardcore Dems will applaud the move, - Michelle Obama is more liberal than anyone in the party.KaiBear said:Dems kicked poll leading Bernie to the curb twice. Gave his a few bucks to stay quiet and bingo, all was forgiven.RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Do you honestly think the Democrats will be allowed to push aside Kamala and risk burning the country down? No way. They bring in the Cafeteria Czar. Michelle Obama hates our country more than Biden.
A jilted Kamala is even less of a threat to party unity.
She will get compensated one way or another though the price tag will be much larger.
Should Gavin Newsom be plugged in late, the circular firing squad will commence. Will be fun to watch.
Again
It happened to Bernie TWICE
He was paid off .
Same happens with our brilliant VP
Mothra said:While I don't disagree with this, you must surely realize that the same holds true for Biden. While there are a lot of Democrats and independents who don't approve of Biden, because they hate Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, they will make the choice to vote for Biden, despite thinking he's done a pretty crappy job as president.whiterock said:There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.sombear said:Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .whiterock said:I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......sombear said:I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.whiterock said:sombear said:whiterock said:🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023
PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF
This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.
Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.
Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.
I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.
We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.
When our only hope for getting our unlikable candidate elected is that the other candidate will be less likable, we are in pretty serious trouble.
🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2023
(R) Trump: 44% [+4]
(D) Biden: 43% [-1]
[Change vs July 25]
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 52%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Haley 4%
Pence 3%
Christie 2%
Scott 2%
——
⦿ YouGov/Economist (B+) | ±3.1%
⦿ 8/26-29 | n=1,303 RV | n=520 GOP RVshttps://t.co/1qvz9z9CO9 pic.twitter.com/h332yiLJ8e
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Doesn't 3rd party help Trump?
Ever heard the saying, "Opinions are like a--holes. Everyone has one"?whiterock said:Mothra said:While I don't disagree with this, you must surely realize that the same holds true for Biden. While there are a lot of Democrats and independents who don't approve of Biden, because they hate Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, they will make the choice to vote for Biden, despite thinking he's done a pretty crappy job as president.whiterock said:There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.sombear said:Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .whiterock said:I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......sombear said:I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.whiterock said:sombear said:whiterock said:🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023
PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF
This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.
Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.
Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.
I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.
We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.
When our only hope for getting our unlikable candidate elected is that the other candidate will be less likable, we are in pretty serious trouble.🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2023
(R) Trump: 44% [+4]
(D) Biden: 43% [-1]
[Change vs July 25]
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 52%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Haley 4%
Pence 3%
Christie 2%
Scott 2%
——
⦿ YouGov/Economist (B+) | ±3.1%
⦿ 8/26-29 | n=1,303 RV | n=520 GOP RVshttps://t.co/1qvz9z9CO9 pic.twitter.com/h332yiLJ8e
Substitute polls for opinions, and it has essentially the same meaning.
If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
glitch in the matrixJack Bauer said:
this is sad...BREAKING: Mitch McConnell inexplicably freezes up again while answering a question
— ALX 🇺🇸 (@alx) August 30, 2023
pic.twitter.com/9LVmhC9nZs
Adopt-a-Bear 2024
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CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs
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CLASS Sophomore
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Osodecentx said:whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Doesn't 3rd party help Trump?
Depends on who/what it is.
Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Maybe. Maybe not.
https://www.newsmax.com/mclaughlin/biden-fulton-trump/2023/08/29/id/1132479/
McLaughlin Poll: 1000 National Likely Voters - Trump Beats Biden in Electoral Landslide https://t.co/Xn6R8RJnC8
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 31, 2023
Bernie is just an old rich white man. Nobody cares. Just saying it will not be near as easy for Kamala to take the money and fade to black (Pun intended).KaiBear said:RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:Pride , power, and arrogance will not allow the Progressive Left to let Kamala quietly ride off into the night and allow the pretty boy Caucasian from California take what they are entitled to. All Hell will break loose. Their only option will be Michelle Obama. It will be okay for a black woman to screw over another black woman. Hardcore Dems will applaud the move, - Michelle Obama is more liberal than anyone in the party.KaiBear said:Dems kicked poll leading Bernie to the curb twice. Gave his a few bucks to stay quiet and bingo, all was forgiven.RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Do you honestly think the Democrats will be allowed to push aside Kamala and risk burning the country down? No way. They bring in the Cafeteria Czar. Michelle Obama hates our country more than Biden.
A jilted Kamala is even less of a threat to party unity.
She will get compensated one way or another though the price tag will be much larger.
Should Gavin Newsom be plugged in late, the circular firing squad will commence. Will be fun to watch.
Again
It happened to Bernie TWICE
He was paid off .
Same happens with our brilliant VP
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"
-- Barack Obama
-- Barack Obama
whiterock said:Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Maybe. Maybe not.
https://www.newsmax.com/mclaughlin/biden-fulton-trump/2023/08/29/id/1132479/McLaughlin Poll: 1000 National Likely Voters - Trump Beats Biden in Electoral Landslide https://t.co/Xn6R8RJnC8
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 31, 2023
Quote:Ever heard the saying, "Opinions are like a--holes. Everyone has one"?Quote:Quote:While I don't disagree with this, you must surely realize that the same holds true for Biden. While there are a lot of Democrats and independents who don't approve of Biden, because they hate Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, they will make the choice to vote for Biden, despite thinking he's done a pretty crappy job as president.Quote:There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.Quote:Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .Quote:I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......Quote:I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.Quote:Quote:Quote:🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023
PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF
This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.
Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.
Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.
I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.
We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.
When our only hope for getting our unlikable candidate elected is that the other candidate will be less likable, we are in pretty serious trouble.🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2023
(R) Trump: 44% [+4]
(D) Biden: 43% [-1]
[Change vs July 25]
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 52%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Haley 4%
Pence 3%
Christie 2%
Scott 2%
——
⦿ YouGov/Economist (B+) | ±3.1%
⦿ 8/26-29 | n=1,303 RV | n=520 GOP RVshttps://t.co/1qvz9z9CO9 pic.twitter.com/h332yiLJ8e
Substitute polls for opinions, and it has essentially the same meaning.
For sure that could apply to every post on this forum.Mothra said:whiterock said:Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Maybe. Maybe not.
https://www.newsmax.com/mclaughlin/biden-fulton-trump/2023/08/29/id/1132479/McLaughlin Poll: 1000 National Likely Voters - Trump Beats Biden in Electoral Landslide https://t.co/Xn6R8RJnC8
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 31, 2023Quote:Ever heard the saying, "Opinions are like a--holes. Everyone has one"?Quote:Quote:While I don't disagree with this, you must surely realize that the same holds true for Biden. While there are a lot of Democrats and independents who don't approve of Biden, because they hate Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, they will make the choice to vote for Biden, despite thinking he's done a pretty crappy job as president.Quote:There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.Quote:Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .Quote:I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......Quote:I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.Quote:Quote:Quote:🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023
PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF
This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.
Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.
Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.
I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.
We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.
When our only hope for getting our unlikable candidate elected is that the other candidate will be less likable, we are in pretty serious trouble.🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2023
(R) Trump: 44% [+4]
(D) Biden: 43% [-1]
[Change vs July 25]
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 52%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Haley 4%
Pence 3%
Christie 2%
Scott 2%
——
⦿ YouGov/Economist (B+) | ±3.1%
⦿ 8/26-29 | n=1,303 RV | n=520 GOP RVshttps://t.co/1qvz9z9CO9 pic.twitter.com/h332yiLJ8e
Substitute polls for opinions, and it has essentially the same meaning.
The data is the data. It's can't really be dispositive when the numbers are so close, and in any event we can't read too much into it this far out in front of the election. But, and this is important......the data does not decisively support the arguments of the "can't win" caucus. It actually fits better the argument I've been making = the race is at this point competitive. We will have a better idea 9 months from now when we know exactly who will be the candidates and a better feel for what will be the 2-3 issues that will be most important to voters. Who knows, Biden may be gone and Harris may be President. Or Newsom may be on a coronation tour. If so, Kennedy may catch a 2nd wind.
Dems have a real dilemma on their hands if Biden doesn't make the ticket, for whatever reason. Harris is almost by acclamation the weakest of the visible options, yet they cannot skip over her without tearing a hole in their bucket. So it's not like they're supermen over on the other side. They can and do make mistakes, fail to fix their own problems.
As I've been saying, supporters of candidates other than Trump have got to find a better argument than electability. It's clearly not working. And it won't unless he's campaigning from jail. (which is the least likely of all options).
I think the last sentence of your post is far more likely than you're willing to admit, especially in GA and in the documents case.whiterock said:For sure that could apply to every post on this forum.Mothra said:whiterock said:Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Maybe. Maybe not.
https://www.newsmax.com/mclaughlin/biden-fulton-trump/2023/08/29/id/1132479/McLaughlin Poll: 1000 National Likely Voters - Trump Beats Biden in Electoral Landslide https://t.co/Xn6R8RJnC8
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 31, 2023Quote:Ever heard the saying, "Opinions are like a--holes. Everyone has one"?Quote:Quote:While I don't disagree with this, you must surely realize that the same holds true for Biden. While there are a lot of Democrats and independents who don't approve of Biden, because they hate Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, they will make the choice to vote for Biden, despite thinking he's done a pretty crappy job as president.Quote:There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.Quote:Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .Quote:I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......Quote:I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.Quote:Quote:Quote:🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023
PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF
This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.
Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.
Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.
I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.
We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.
When our only hope for getting our unlikable candidate elected is that the other candidate will be less likable, we are in pretty serious trouble.🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2023
(R) Trump: 44% [+4]
(D) Biden: 43% [-1]
[Change vs July 25]
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 52%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Haley 4%
Pence 3%
Christie 2%
Scott 2%
——
⦿ YouGov/Economist (B+) | ±3.1%
⦿ 8/26-29 | n=1,303 RV | n=520 GOP RVshttps://t.co/1qvz9z9CO9 pic.twitter.com/h332yiLJ8e
Substitute polls for opinions, and it has essentially the same meaning.
The data is the data. It's can't really be dispositive when the numbers are so close, and in any event we can't read too much into it this far out in front of the election. But, and this is important......the data does not decisively support the arguments of the "can't win" caucus. It actually fits better the argument I've been making = the race is at this point competitive. We will have a better idea 9 months from now when we know exactly who will be the candidates and a better feel for what will be the 2-3 issues that will be most important to voters. Who knows, Biden may be gone and Harris may be President. Or Newsom may be on a coronation tour. If so, Kennedy may catch a 2nd wind.
Dems have a real dilemma on their hands if Biden doesn't make the ticket, for whatever reason. Harris is almost by acclamation the weakest of the visible options, yet they cannot skip over her without tearing a hole in their bucket. So it's not like they're supermen over on the other side. They can and do make mistakes, fail to fix their own problems.
As I've been saying, supporters of candidates other than Trump have got to find a better argument than electability. It's clearly not working. And it won't unless he's campaigning from jail. (which is the least likely of all options).
You keep focusing on electability being a poor argument, while continuing to proffer an equally poor argument - banking on Biden being even less popular than Trump. When you run a very poor and disliked candidate and hope that his opponent will be even less likeable and unpopular, that is typically a recipe for disaster in an election. The fact is Trump has gotten even less popular than he was in 2019/2020, and Biden's approval numbers, while not great, are still better than Trump's (holding steady around 41% compared to Trump's 39%) - this despite Biden being a geriatric patient whose administration has been a total disaster. If Biden were to step down, and it becomes Newsom vs. Trump (the most likely of alternative scenarios, IMO), then Trump gets beaten in a landslide, IMO.
We already have 2020 as proof that Trump has an electability issue. The idea that his changes are improved in 2024 is simply not borne out by the evidence. We shouldn't ignore past mistakes in our analysis.
LOL that part in italics. Pointing out that BOTH candidates have electability issues is not adopting the electability argument. It's merely noting the fact there is no clear advantage on the question of electablity = 99% of public polling shows neither candidate ahead by a margin greater than the margin of error.Mothra said:I think the last sentence of your post is far more likely than you're willing to admit, especially in GA and in the documents case.whiterock said:For sure that could apply to every post on this forum.Mothra said:whiterock said:Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Maybe. Maybe not.
https://www.newsmax.com/mclaughlin/biden-fulton-trump/2023/08/29/id/1132479/McLaughlin Poll: 1000 National Likely Voters - Trump Beats Biden in Electoral Landslide https://t.co/Xn6R8RJnC8
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 31, 2023Quote:Ever heard the saying, "Opinions are like a--holes. Everyone has one"?Quote:Quote:While I don't disagree with this, you must surely realize that the same holds true for Biden. While there are a lot of Democrats and independents who don't approve of Biden, because they hate Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, they will make the choice to vote for Biden, despite thinking he's done a pretty crappy job as president.Quote:There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.Quote:Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .Quote:I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......Quote:I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.Quote:Quote:Quote:🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023
PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF
This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.
Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.
Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.
I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.
We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.
When our only hope for getting our unlikable candidate elected is that the other candidate will be less likable, we are in pretty serious trouble.🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2023
(R) Trump: 44% [+4]
(D) Biden: 43% [-1]
[Change vs July 25]
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 52%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Haley 4%
Pence 3%
Christie 2%
Scott 2%
——
⦿ YouGov/Economist (B+) | ±3.1%
⦿ 8/26-29 | n=1,303 RV | n=520 GOP RVshttps://t.co/1qvz9z9CO9 pic.twitter.com/h332yiLJ8e
Substitute polls for opinions, and it has essentially the same meaning.
The data is the data. It's can't really be dispositive when the numbers are so close, and in any event we can't read too much into it this far out in front of the election. But, and this is important......the data does not decisively support the arguments of the "can't win" caucus. It actually fits better the argument I've been making = the race is at this point competitive. We will have a better idea 9 months from now when we know exactly who will be the candidates and a better feel for what will be the 2-3 issues that will be most important to voters. Who knows, Biden may be gone and Harris may be President. Or Newsom may be on a coronation tour. If so, Kennedy may catch a 2nd wind.
Dems have a real dilemma on their hands if Biden doesn't make the ticket, for whatever reason. Harris is almost by acclamation the weakest of the visible options, yet they cannot skip over her without tearing a hole in their bucket. So it's not like they're supermen over on the other side. They can and do make mistakes, fail to fix their own problems.
As I've been saying, supporters of candidates other than Trump have got to find a better argument than electability. It's clearly not working. And it won't unless he's campaigning from jail. (which is the least likely of all options).
You keep focusing on electability being a poor argument, while continuing to proffer an equally poor argument - banking on Biden being even less popular than Trump. When you run a very poor and disliked candidate and hope that his opponent will be even less likeable and unpopular, that is typically a recipe for disaster in an election. The fact is Trump has gotten even less popular than he was in 2019/2020, and Biden's approval numbers, while not great, are still better than Trump's (holding steady around 41% compared to Trump's 39%) - this despite Biden being a geriatric patient whose administration has been a total disaster. If Biden were to step down, and it becomes Newsom vs. Trump (the most likely of alternative scenarios, IMO), then Trump gets beaten in a landslide, IMO.
We already have 2020 as proof that Trump has an electability issue. The idea that his changes are improved in 2024 is simply not borne out by the evidence. We shouldn't ignore past mistakes in our analysis.
Holding assessments in reserve to determine future trends is not self-serving analysis. It is wise analysis. Biden is in office. He cannot just go to basement and let staffers critique the incumbent. HE is the incumbent. He will be held accountable to some degree for the good/bad that happens over the next 18 months. And it is hardly unreasonable to look at the landscape and assess that the odds of developments working against him are greater than the odds of developments working in his favor. 2020 was a referendum on Trump; 2024 will likely be a referendum on Biden. And Biden is an incredibly weak incumbent.
Admittedly, it will be an ugly contest.
Sure, I'd rather not have an ugly contest.
But we can't fret about what we'd like.
We have to figure out a way to win the contest we're gonna get.
And we can.
C'mon, man, that's Trump's pollster . . . .whiterock said:Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Maybe. Maybe not.
https://www.newsmax.com/mclaughlin/biden-fulton-trump/2023/08/29/id/1132479/McLaughlin Poll: 1000 National Likely Voters - Trump Beats Biden in Electoral Landslide https://t.co/Xn6R8RJnC8
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 31, 2023
Yes, national polls are close, but the tabs still look bad, and I've seen no polls or data showing Trump dominating the battlegrounds. GA, WI, AZ, and PA have been consistently bad. MI showing some life, but few MI insiders think Trump would actually win there.
🚨BREAKING: Arkansas will use hand-marked paper ballots in all future elections. Do you support this? pic.twitter.com/vmXtWru6xK
— Ian Jaeger (@IanJaeger29) August 30, 2023
I know McLaughlin. I understand and share your reservations. But it's another indicator of a tight race starting to move in Trump's direction (at this moment in time...no sustainability argument intended).sombear said:C'mon, man, that's Trump's pollster . . . .whiterock said:Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Maybe. Maybe not.
https://www.newsmax.com/mclaughlin/biden-fulton-trump/2023/08/29/id/1132479/McLaughlin Poll: 1000 National Likely Voters - Trump Beats Biden in Electoral Landslide https://t.co/Xn6R8RJnC8
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 31, 2023
Yes, national polls are close, but the tabs still look bad, and I've seen no polls or data showing Trump dominating the battlegrounds. GA, WI, AZ, and PA have been consistently bad. MI showing some life, but few MI insiders think Trump would actually win there.
Check out the alarm from the high priests of neverTrumpdom = Kristol and Sykes. They see it too. All the stuff that was supposed to "finish off a weakened Trump" is actually (very counter-intuitively) working to strengthen him beyond the GOP base.
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/to-beat-trump-democrats-need-whitmer-warnock
LOL at your denial. Come on, whiterock. You have been attacking the electability of Trump argument since the get go, while continually advocating Biden's approval and popularity decreasing.whiterock said:LOL that part in italics. Pointing out that BOTH candidates have electability issues is not adopting the electability argument. It's merely noting the fact there is no clear advantage on the question of electablity = 99% of public polling shows neither candidate ahead by a margin greater than the margin of error.Mothra said:I think the last sentence of your post is far more likely than you're willing to admit, especially in GA and in the documents case.whiterock said:For sure that could apply to every post on this forum.Mothra said:whiterock said:Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Maybe. Maybe not.
https://www.newsmax.com/mclaughlin/biden-fulton-trump/2023/08/29/id/1132479/McLaughlin Poll: 1000 National Likely Voters - Trump Beats Biden in Electoral Landslide https://t.co/Xn6R8RJnC8
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 31, 2023Quote:Ever heard the saying, "Opinions are like a--holes. Everyone has one"?Quote:Quote:While I don't disagree with this, you must surely realize that the same holds true for Biden. While there are a lot of Democrats and independents who don't approve of Biden, because they hate Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, they will make the choice to vote for Biden, despite thinking he's done a pretty crappy job as president.Quote:There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.Quote:Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .Quote:I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......Quote:I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.Quote:Quote:Quote:🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023
PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF
This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.
Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.
Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.
I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.
We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.
When our only hope for getting our unlikable candidate elected is that the other candidate will be less likable, we are in pretty serious trouble.🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2023
(R) Trump: 44% [+4]
(D) Biden: 43% [-1]
[Change vs July 25]
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 52%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Haley 4%
Pence 3%
Christie 2%
Scott 2%
——
⦿ YouGov/Economist (B+) | ±3.1%
⦿ 8/26-29 | n=1,303 RV | n=520 GOP RVshttps://t.co/1qvz9z9CO9 pic.twitter.com/h332yiLJ8e
Substitute polls for opinions, and it has essentially the same meaning.
The data is the data. It's can't really be dispositive when the numbers are so close, and in any event we can't read too much into it this far out in front of the election. But, and this is important......the data does not decisively support the arguments of the "can't win" caucus. It actually fits better the argument I've been making = the race is at this point competitive. We will have a better idea 9 months from now when we know exactly who will be the candidates and a better feel for what will be the 2-3 issues that will be most important to voters. Who knows, Biden may be gone and Harris may be President. Or Newsom may be on a coronation tour. If so, Kennedy may catch a 2nd wind.
Dems have a real dilemma on their hands if Biden doesn't make the ticket, for whatever reason. Harris is almost by acclamation the weakest of the visible options, yet they cannot skip over her without tearing a hole in their bucket. So it's not like they're supermen over on the other side. They can and do make mistakes, fail to fix their own problems.
As I've been saying, supporters of candidates other than Trump have got to find a better argument than electability. It's clearly not working. And it won't unless he's campaigning from jail. (which is the least likely of all options).
You keep focusing on electability being a poor argument, while continuing to proffer an equally poor argument - banking on Biden being even less popular than Trump. When you run a very poor and disliked candidate and hope that his opponent will be even less likeable and unpopular, that is typically a recipe for disaster in an election. The fact is Trump has gotten even less popular than he was in 2019/2020, and Biden's approval numbers, while not great, are still better than Trump's (holding steady around 41% compared to Trump's 39%) - this despite Biden being a geriatric patient whose administration has been a total disaster. If Biden were to step down, and it becomes Newsom vs. Trump (the most likely of alternative scenarios, IMO), then Trump gets beaten in a landslide, IMO.
We already have 2020 as proof that Trump has an electability issue. The idea that his changes are improved in 2024 is simply not borne out by the evidence. We shouldn't ignore past mistakes in our analysis.
Holding assessments in reserve to determine future trends is not self-serving analysis. It is wise analysis. Biden is in office. He cannot just go to basement and let staffers critique the incumbent. HE is the incumbent. He will be held accountable to some degree for the good/bad that happens over the next 18 months. And it is hardly unreasonable to look at the landscape and assess that the odds of developments working against him are greater than the odds of developments working in his favor. 2020 was a referendum on Trump; 2024 will likely be a referendum on Biden. And Biden is an incredibly weak incumbent.
Admittedly, it will be an ugly contest.
Sure, I'd rather not have an ugly contest.
But we can't fret about what we'd like.
We have to figure out a way to win the contest we're gonna get.
And we can.
Again, if job approval is any barometer (and it is), Biden has remained steady around 41% and Trump around 39% for more than a year. So, Trump is still coming up short in that area. And you also seem to want to discount that this is essentially a race between two incumbents. America has already rejected Trump once. So his track record in that area isn't good.
It's highly unlikely at this point Trump is going to increase in popularity, so the only hope is that Biden decreases. What remains true of both candidates, however, is that many of those who disapprove of the candidate will still vote for them over the alternative.
Is there a slim hope Trump can do something he's been unable to do since 2016? Sure. But there's not much hope based on the evidence.
100% correct.Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Trump will bring out the Dem vote better than any Dem nominee possibly could.
Why some folks are determined to go down in flames again with the old fat man I cant comprehend.
Yup. It's mind boggling.KaiBear said:100% correct.Mothra said:If/when Trump is the nominee, it will turn out the vote.whiterock said:
That's the 3rd or 4th poll I've posted with BOTH candidates in the low-40's. Classic set up for a very low turnout/base election. Tons of undecideds, most of whom will not vote or will vote 3rd party.
Wait and see.
Trump will bring out the Dem vote better than any Dem nominee possibly could.
Why some folks are determined to go down in flames again with the old fat man I cant comprehend.
Trump Says He'd Have 'No Choice' But to Lock Up Political Opponents if He Wins in 2024
Former president Donald Trump recently said he'd have "no choice" but to lock up his political opponents if he wins the 2024 presidential race because his opponents are already doing the same to him and his allies.
Trump's comments came during an interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck on Tuesday.
Beck noted that Trump led chants of "lock her up" about Hillary Clinton in 2016. "And then when you became president, you said, 'We don't do that in America. That's just not the right thing to do,'" Beck said. "That's what they're doing. Do you regret not locking her up? And if you're president again, will you lock people up?"
"Well, I'll give you an example," Trump said. "The answer is you have no choice because they're doing it to us."
"I always had such great respect for the office of the president and the presidency," he added. "And I never hit Biden as hard as I could have. And then I heard he was trying to indict me and it was him that was doing it."
While Trump suggested Biden was the driving force behind "every one of" the four indictments he's facing, he said: "I don't think he's sharp enough to think about much, but he was there, and he was probably the one giving the order."
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-says-hed-have-no-choice-but-to-lock-up-political-opponents-if-he-wins-in-2024/
Former president Donald Trump recently said he'd have "no choice" but to lock up his political opponents if he wins the 2024 presidential race because his opponents are already doing the same to him and his allies.
Trump's comments came during an interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck on Tuesday.
Beck noted that Trump led chants of "lock her up" about Hillary Clinton in 2016. "And then when you became president, you said, 'We don't do that in America. That's just not the right thing to do,'" Beck said. "That's what they're doing. Do you regret not locking her up? And if you're president again, will you lock people up?"
"Well, I'll give you an example," Trump said. "The answer is you have no choice because they're doing it to us."
"I always had such great respect for the office of the president and the presidency," he added. "And I never hit Biden as hard as I could have. And then I heard he was trying to indict me and it was him that was doing it."
While Trump suggested Biden was the driving force behind "every one of" the four indictments he's facing, he said: "I don't think he's sharp enough to think about much, but he was there, and he was probably the one giving the order."
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-says-hed-have-no-choice-but-to-lock-up-political-opponents-if-he-wins-in-2024/