2024

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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 8:09p, 1/30/24
whiterock said:
"…usually, the candidate that wins the primary is the strongest candidate in the general……."



Trump is not your usual candidate.
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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 8:50p, 1/30/24
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
"…usually, the candidate that wins the primary is the strongest candidate in the general……."



Trump is not your usual candidate.
I urge you to ponder on that one....
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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 6:40a, 1/31/24
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
"…usually, the candidate that wins the primary is the strongest candidate in the general……."



Trump is not your usual candidate.
I urge you to ponder on that one....
Yeah, my comment to you as well.

However, I see it as a negative and you see it as a positive.

I still can't see the suburbs going Trump's way. But, the IA and NH Republican Primaries went Trump's way so he won...
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muddybrazos
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 8:52a, 1/31/24
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
"…usually, the candidate that wins the primary is the strongest candidate in the general……."



Trump is not your usual candidate.
I urge you to ponder on that one....
Yeah, my comment to you as well.

However, I see it as a negative and you see it as a positive.

I still can't see the suburbs going Trump's way. But, the IA and NH Republican Primaries went Trump's way so he won...
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FLBear5630
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In reply to muddybrazos • 10:00a, 1/31/24
muddybrazos said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
"…usually, the candidate that wins the primary is the strongest candidate in the general……."



Trump is not your usual candidate.
I urge you to ponder on that one....
Yeah, my comment to you as well.

However, I see it as a negative and you see it as a positive.

I still can't see the suburbs going Trump's way. But, the IA and NH Republican Primaries went Trump's way so he won...
We will see.

But, if it wasn't it was stolen. Right?
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whiterock
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10:15a, 1/31/24
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whiterock
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10:17a, 1/31/24
…again, we see, over and over, Trump with a hard floor of 43-45%.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 10:20a, 1/31/24
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
"…usually, the candidate that wins the primary is the strongest candidate in the general……."



Trump is not your usual candidate.
I urge you to ponder on that one....
Yeah, my comment to you as well.

However, I see it as a negative and you see it as a positive.

I still can't see the suburbs going Trump's way. But, the IA and NH Republican Primaries went Trump's way so he won...
the 2055 Trump write in votes during the Dem primary in NH was interesting
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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FLBear5630
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 10:25a, 1/31/24
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
"…usually, the candidate that wins the primary is the strongest candidate in the general……."



Trump is not your usual candidate.
I urge you to ponder on that one....
Yeah, my comment to you as well.

However, I see it as a negative and you see it as a positive.

I still can't see the suburbs going Trump's way. But, the IA and NH Republican Primaries went Trump's way so he won...
the 2055 Trump write in votes during the Dem primary in NH was interesting
Hey, elections are great. We get to see who is right. (If you believe the results... I would bet if Trump loses it will be because he was robbed.)
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to whiterock • 10:33a, 1/31/24
whiterock said:
…again, we see, over and over, Trump with a hard floor of 43-45%.

If he only had the Media-Academia-the Federal Government-Hollywood-Wall St. to shore up the election for him and "save democracy"
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Mothra
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In reply to muddybrazos • 10:51a, 1/31/24
muddybrazos said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
"…usually, the candidate that wins the primary is the strongest candidate in the general……."



Trump is not your usual candidate.
I urge you to ponder on that one....
Yeah, my comment to you as well.

However, I see it as a negative and you see it as a positive.

I still can't see the suburbs going Trump's way. But, the IA and NH Republican Primaries went Trump's way so he won...
We will see. Polls are funny things, and often can't be trusted (see 2016). I would put my money on Biden carrying enough swing states to win again, if the election were today. Of course, it's a long time between now and election day. But Trump has been on a losing streak since 2016. It's funny to me his supporters are so confident this is going to be any different than the last few elections. But hope springs eternal in Trump World!

BTW, new poll came out in some of the swing states about Trump if he were ever convicted. It's not good:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/trump-guilty-verdict-loses-half-of-key-state-voters-in-election-2024
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Mothra
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In reply to whiterock • 10:54a, 1/31/24
whiterock said:
…again, we see, over and over, Trump with a hard floor of 43-45%.
Which isn't going to be enough, IMO. You guys are going to be so disappointed this time next year.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Mothra • 4:11p, 1/31/24
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
…again, we see, over and over, Trump with a hard floor of 43-45%.
Which isn't going to be enough, IMO. You guys are going to be so disappointed this time next year.
with RFK it could be..

Remember that clinton won with when Ross Perot was in the mix 43.1%
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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whiterock
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 4:55p, 1/31/24
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
…again, we see, over and over, Trump with a hard floor of 43-45%.
Which isn't going to be enough, IMO. You guys are going to be so disappointed this time next year.
with RFK it could be..

Remember that clinton won with when Ross Perot was in the mix 43.1%
and then what do undecideds do. As we see in this poll, there are 12% undecided. Usually, with an unpopular incumbent, they just don't show up. Or, if there is a credible 3rd party candidate, some will vote 3rd party. Usually, 3rd party candidates take 2-4% of the vote. With two very unpopular major candidates and a much stronger than normal 3rd party candidate, one might see that number jump up between 5-10%

Look at indie numbers. Trump is regularly winning them, bigly. The poll posted below has minority voting numbers at odds with most other pollsters, so that's where any error would likely be.

Bill Clinton won TWO elections with less than 50% of the popular vote, thanks to a stronger than normal 3rd party candidate. That is the likely template for 2024....winner not winning the popular vote.

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Cobretti
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7:39p, 1/31/24


Quote:
Bloomberg/MC Swing States Poll: how responsible, if at all, is President Biden for the increase in
migrants crossing the U.S/Mexico Border?

Responsible: 61%
No responsible: 29%

Postgrad: 58-34
18-34 y/o: 54-31
White: 65-27
Hispanic: 59-32
Black: 47-36
Dem: 38-47
GOP: 84-13
Indie: 60-26

Trust more to handle: Immigration
Trump 52% (+22)
Biden 30%
.
The Economy
Trump 51% (+18)
Biden 33%
.
Stock market performance
Trump 48% (+20)
Biden 28%
.
Abortion
Biden 40% (+3)
Trump 37%
.
Climate change
Biden 42% (+5)
Trump 37%
.
Democracy
Biden 41% (+1)
Trump 40%
.
Labor and Unions
Trump 41% (+4)
Biden 37%
.
The cost of everyday goods
Trump 48% (+15)
Biden 33%
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whiterock
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8:13p, 1/31/24
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Oldbear83
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8:16p, 1/31/24
There has been a recent chant among a certain crowd that Trump "cannot win" in 2024, and therefore we have no hope if he wins the GOP nomination. Aside from the rather obvious facts that A) any major party nominee has a some chance of winning the White House, and B) Trump was not supposed to be able to win in 2016, but did, it seems necessary to look at the numbers. And while there is a long way to go to November, there are valid indicators as to how things may go.

The first thing to do is to set the parameters. For all the media noise, the President is not elected in a single national election. Instead, the President wins office through fifty-four separate contests in the fifty states, the District of Columbia, and the Congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine which award an elector each to the Electoral Vote tally. It takes 270 Electoral Votes to win the White House.

It is not really necessary to go into all fifty-four of those contests, however. I believe it may reasonably be said that the states/districts which Trump won in both 2016 and 2020 will go his way in 2024 if he again is the GOP nominee. It may also be reasonably presumed that the states/districts which the Democrat won in both 2016 and 2020 will go Biden's way in 2024. Assuming that is correct, Biden starts with nineteen states, D.C. and Maine's 1st Congressional District, for 221 Electoral Votes. Biden needs 49 more Electoral Votes to stay in office. As for Trump, he starts off with twenty-five states and Maine's 2nd Congressional District, for 235 Electoral Votes. Trump needs 35 more Electoral Votes to regain the Oval Office.

The race will therefore be decided by the following states/district:

Arizona: 11 EV
Georgia: 16 EV
Michigan: 15 EV
Minnesota: 10 EV
Nebraska 2nd Congressional District: 1 EV
Pennsylvania: 19 EV
Wisconsin: 10 EV

That's six states and one congressional district worth 82 Electoral Votes. Biden can win with as few as three of those states, and Trump can win with as few as three states, although Trump has more combinations which can produce the needed votes.

We do not presently have state-level polling which can give a precise picture on support, but we can look at how each of these states produced results compared to the national numbers, and use current national polling to give a snapshot of how these states may play out.

So first we have Arizona. In 2016 Trump underperformed his national support by 0.9 points, but in 2020, despite losing the state he beat his national support by 3.0 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Trump at 47.8% support, so that projects 46.9% to 50.8% for Trump.

As for Biden, in 2016 the Democrats underperformed their national support by 0.9 points, and in 2020 beat their national support by 1.4 points. The RCP average for Biden is 43.6% right now, projecting Arizona will give Biden 42.7% to 45.0%.

That gives Trump an average 5.0 point lead in Arizona right now. Trump's total climbs to 246 EV, against Biden's 221.

Next is Georgia. In 2016 Trump underperformed his national support by 0.7 points, but in 2020, despite losing the state he beat his national support by 2.2 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Trump at 47.8% support, so that projects 47.1% to 50.0% for Trump.

As for Biden, in 2016 the Democrats underperformed their national support by 0.6 points, and in 2020 beat their national support by 1.5 points. The RCP average for Biden is 43.6% right now, projecting Arizona will give Biden 43.0% to 45.1%.

That gives Trump an average 4.2 point lead in Georgia right now. Trump's total climbs to 262 EV, against Biden's 221.


Next is Michigan. In 2016 Trump underperformed his national support by 0.3 points, but in 2020, despite losing the state he beat his national support by 3.8 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Trump at 47.8% support, so that projects 47.5% to 51.6% for Trump.

As for Biden, in 2016 the Democrats underperformed their national support by 0.4 points, and in 2020 beat their national support by 0.6 points. The RCP average for Biden is 43.6% right now, projecting Arizona will give Biden 43.2% to 44.2%.

That gives Trump an average 5.8 point lead in Michigan right now. Trump's total climbs to 277 EV, against Biden's 221.

Next up is Minnesota. . In 2016 Trump underperformed his national support by 0.5 points, but in 2020, despite losing the state he beat his national support by 0.4 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Trump at 47.8% support, so that projects 47.3% to 48.2% for Trump.

As for Biden, in 2016 the Democrats underperformed their national support by 0.5 points, and in 2020 beat their national support by 0.4 points. The RCP average for Biden is 43.6% right now, projecting Arizona will give Biden 43.1% to 44.0%.

That gives Trump an average 4.2 point lead in Minnesota right now. Trump's total climbs to 287 EV, against Biden's 221.
Next is Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. In 2016 Trump underperformed his national support by 1.8 points, and in 2020 Trump underperformed his national support by 1.5 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Trump at 47.8% support, so that projects 46.0% to 46.3% for Trump.

As for Biden, in 2016 the Democrats underperformed their national support by 0.4 points, and in 2020 beat their national support by 2.0 points. The RCP average for Biden is 43.6% right now, projecting Arizona will give Biden 43.2% to 45.6%.

That gives Trump an average 1.7 point lead in Nebraska (2CD) right now. Trump's total climbs to 288 EV, against Biden's 221.

Next is Pennsylvania. In 2016 Trump underperformed his national support by 0.2 points, but in 2020, despite losing the state he beat his national support by 2.8 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Trump at 47.8% support, so that projects 47.6% to 50.6% for Trump.

As for Biden, in 2016 the Democrats beat their national support by 0.2 points, and in 2020 beat their national support by 1.0 points. The RCP average for Biden is 43.6% right now, projecting Arizona will give Biden 43.8% to 44.8%.

That gives Trump an average 4.8 point lead in Pennsylvania right now. Trump's total climbs to 307 EV, against Biden's 221.

Finally, there is Wisconsin. In 2016 Trump underperformed his national support by 0.1 points, but in 2020, despite losing the state he beat his national support by 5.8 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Trump at 47.8% support, so that projects 47.7% to 53.6% for Trump.

As for Biden, in 2016 the Democrats equaled their national support, and in 2020 underperformed their national support by 2.6 points. The RCP average for Biden is 43.6% right now, projecting Arizona will give Biden 41.0% to 43.6%.

That gives Trump an average 8.4 point lead in Wisconsin right now. Trump's total climbs to 317 EV, against Biden's 221.

Now this does not prove Trump will win. There is time for Trump's support to falter, or some of these states could perform differently versus national levels than they showed in 2016/2020, but it certainly shows Trump has a stronger electoral position than the media or Biden likes to believe, and by the numbers Trump definitely can win the White House.
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Redbrickbear
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8:33p, 1/31/24
This man is an enemy of our sacred democracy….



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boognish_bear
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8:44p, 1/31/24
Still not sure if he hurts Trump or Biden worse

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Redbrickbear
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8:51p, 1/31/24
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Cobretti • 10:43p, 1/31/24
Cobretti said:


Quote:
Bloomberg/MC Swing States Poll: how responsible, if at all, is President Biden for the increase in
migrants crossing the U.S/Mexico Border?

Responsible: 61%
No responsible: 29%

Postgrad: 58-34
18-34 y/o: 54-31
White: 65-27
Hispanic: 59-32
Black: 47-36
Dem: 38-47
GOP: 84-13
Indie: 60-26

Trust more to handle: Immigration
Trump 52% (+22)
Biden 30%
.
The Economy
Trump 51% (+18)
Biden 33%
.
Stock market performance
Trump 48% (+20)
Biden 28%
.
Abortion
Biden 40% (+3)
Trump 37%
.
Climate change
Biden 42% (+5)
Trump 37%
.
Democracy
Biden 41% (+1)
Trump 40%
.
Labor and Unions
Trump 41% (+4)
Biden 37%
.
The cost of everyday goods
Trump 48% (+15)
Biden 33%
those are killer numbers for Biden.. only +1 in democracy against the "leader of J6"
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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4th and Inches
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7:40a, 2/1/24
In Rich Baris poll, the undecideds broke toward Trump when they were required to give an answer increasing his vote % total to over 50% for the first time ever on any poll
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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Cobretti
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8:20a, 2/1/24
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Cobretti
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8:14p, 2/1/24
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whiterock
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 5:48a, 2/2/24
4th and Inches said:
In Rich Baris poll, the undecideds broke toward Trump when they were required to give an answer increasing his vote % total to over 50% for the first time ever on any poll
That's what one would normally expect in this kind of situation.

NORMALLY, when an incumbent is below 50% approval rating, the undecideds either break toward the challenger or do not vote at all. The incumbent in such a situation tends to go thermonuclear on the challenger, knowing that wildly negative campaigns tend to depress turnout of undecideds (who if they show up will mostly not break toward the incumbent. That seems to be reflected in this particular polling data.

What we have this go-around is TWO highly unpopular major party candidates, each of them in a sense an incumbent. That should, presumably, be a wash in the likeability category and give an edge to the candidate with the better record, i.e. Trump.

Trump, for his part, needs to run a more disciplined campaign. He definitely seems to be doing that.


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whiterock
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In reply to Cobretti • 5:49a, 2/2/24
Cobretti said:
as predicted......

The NY trial on property valuation will conclude. Trump will get hosed. It will help not just him, but the whole GOP ticket. Democrats are showing their authoritarian skirts = cross them and they will destroy you. Voters are not going to reward that.
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Mothra
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9:22a, 2/2/24
Well, here is a poll that I predict will be much closer to how next year's election goes:

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889

As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 - 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.
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Redbrickbear
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9:24a, 2/2/24
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Mothra
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 10:02a, 2/2/24
Redbrickbear said:
In all fairness, wasn't it reported that Trump was a Fox News junkie?
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to Mothra • 11:01a, 2/2/24
Mothra said:
Redbrickbear said:
In all fairness, wasn't it reported that Trump was a Fox News junkie?

I think he was a CNN and MSNBC junkie...apparently he like to watch them all day and endlessly complain that they were disrespecting him and attaching him.
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Cobretti
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2:46p, 2/2/24


Quote:
Thinking about Biden-Haley general election matchups. Haley says she will do much better against Biden than Trump will. In RCP average, Trump leads Biden by 1.8 points, Haley leads by 2.3 points. So yes, slight advantage. OTOH, since Trump leads Haley by 54 points in national GOP race and has already won Iowa and New Hampshire, why even look at Biden-Haley numbers? Seems a pretty remote possibility. If Trump wins South Carolina, impossibly remote. But some in political world still suspect/expect/believe/hope Trump candidacy will implode under pressure of indictments at some point...
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Cobretti
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4:54p, 2/2/24
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KaiBear
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5:25p, 2/2/24
Further evidence Biden is ahead in the polls.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to KaiBear • 7:38p, 2/2/24
KaiBear said:
Further evidence Biden is ahead in the polls.
OK, son.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to KaiBear • 11:53p, 2/2/24
KaiBear said:
Further evidence Biden is ahead in the polls.
what polls? The average shows he isnt so the occasional outlier polls?
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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