Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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Trump Says He'd Have 'No Choice' But to Lock Up Political Opponents if He Wins in 2024


Former president Donald Trump recently said he'd have "no choice" but to lock up his political opponents if he wins the 2024 presidential race because his opponents are already doing the same to him and his allies.

Trump's comments came during an interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck on Tuesday.

Beck noted that Trump led chants of "lock her up" about Hillary Clinton in 2016. "And then when you became president, you said, 'We don't do that in America. That's just not the right thing to do,'" Beck said. "That's what they're doing. Do you regret not locking her up? And if you're president again, will you lock people up?"

"Well, I'll give you an example," Trump said. "The answer is you have no choice because they're doing it to us."

"I always had such great respect for the office of the president and the presidency," he added. "And I never hit Biden as hard as I could have. And then I heard he was trying to indict me and it was him that was doing it."

While Trump suggested Biden was the driving force behind "every one of" the four indictments he's facing, he said: "I don't think he's sharp enough to think about much, but he was there, and he was probably the one giving the order."

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-says-hed-have-no-choice-but-to-lock-up-political-opponents-if-he-wins-in-2024/

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Trump had a chance in 2016 to go down the road the Dems are taking now. And he didn't. And how did they pay him back? By literally making stuff up to indict him over. He's got every right to punch back, and voters understand that. His supporters love it and it will not hurt him in the middle like you want it to.

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Several problems with your argument:

1) It's not made up. Trump committed the actions he's been accused of. Now whether those actions are criminal is the issue. But he did them and there's no dispute on that. So it's not accurate to say it's all made up.

2) Voters don't understand. His sycophants might but they comprise a small segment of the voting bloc. Everyone else sees him as a loose cannon.

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The made up part is that anything he has done is criminal.

You are somewhat closer on item 2. I would rephrase it like this: "a strong majority of Republicans as well as an emerging and growing majority of independents believe it may be time to put a loose cannon to work."

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60% of registered GOP voters and a very small number of independents is more accurate.

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I've posted several recent links of reputable polling firms showing exactly what I stated. Apparently, you've got a poll you like and are running with it.

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Maybe he is referring to the WSJ survey that included all registered voters, not just GOP.

The Republican peril is that more than one-and-a-half times as many voters say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump than more likely. This reflects the tilt of independent voters, as well as the 16% of GOP voters who say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump.

The GOP's Big 2024 Problem
A WSJ poll finds indictments are helping Trump in the Republican primaries, but not with all voters.
The latest Wall Street Journal poll is getting headlines for its news that support for Donald Trump nationwide is now up to 59% in the GOP primary race. But for our money the most important harbinger for 2024 is contained in the responses to another survey question.
The poll finds that in a 2024 general-election test President Biden and the former President are tied at 46%. Given Mr. Trump's myriad legal problems, this shows how weak an incumbent Mr. Biden is. But a poll this far out from Election Day also doesn't tell you much given how events can change.
The better insight comes when respondents were asked: "Do Donald Trump's indictments make you more likely or less likely to vote for him, or have no impact on whether or not you would vote for Donald Trump?"
Among Republican primary voters, here are the responses: More likely to vote for Mr. Trump 48%; less likely 16%, and no effect on their vote 36%.
That result confirms what we've seen this year, which is that the indictments by Democratic prosecutors are helping Mr. Trump win the GOP's presidential nod. The biggest jump in Mr. Trump's support came after the first indictment for hush-money payments by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg, and the other indictments changed that very little. This is exactly the result that Democrats want: Keep the focus on Mr. Trump so he wins the nomination, and then convict him in trials before the general election in November.
That strategy is reinforced by the responses when the WSJ survey asked registered voters the same question about the indictments. Their responses: 24% were more likely to vote for Mr. Trump, but 37% were less likely, and 35% said it would have no effect.
The Republican peril is that more than one-and-a-half times as many voters say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump than more likely. This reflects the tilt of independent voters, as well as the 16% of GOP voters who say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump.
These responses are before any of the coming four trials, three of which are already scheduled before the 2024 general election. An acquittal or hung jury could work in Mr. Trump's favor, which is why the Democratic indictment strategy is high risk.
But one or more convictions would probably confirm the judgment of voters who say they are less likely to vote for Mr. Trump. If Republicans nominate Mr. Trump, they are likely to be sailing into a political headwind that will be difficult to overcome.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-gops-big-2024-problem-wsj-polling-indictments-e3c52288?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

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He's referring to pure polling on independents. I've seen and/or posted here several polls that show Trump ahead with independents. Notably, those polls did not show much movement in the overall race = neck & neck. That's mostly because defining what is/isn't an independent this far away from an election is very difficult to to do.

Note that I do not take it further than "inconclusive," unlike others who impute a 1-point advantage to be determinative in a poll with a 3-point margin of error. The race is close right now and likely will be down to the wire.

What you've posted is an entirely different issue and even more subjective.

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It won't go down to the wire. Trump is going to lose worse than last time.

Wait and see.

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That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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Trump Says He'd Have 'No Choice' But to Lock Up Political Opponents if He Wins in 2024


Former president Donald Trump recently said he'd have "no choice" but to lock up his political opponents if he wins the 2024 presidential race because his opponents are already doing the same to him and his allies.

Trump's comments came during an interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck on Tuesday.

Beck noted that Trump led chants of "lock her up" about Hillary Clinton in 2016. "And then when you became president, you said, 'We don't do that in America. That's just not the right thing to do,'" Beck said. "That's what they're doing. Do you regret not locking her up? And if you're president again, will you lock people up?"

"Well, I'll give you an example," Trump said. "The answer is you have no choice because they're doing it to us."

"I always had such great respect for the office of the president and the presidency," he added. "And I never hit Biden as hard as I could have. And then I heard he was trying to indict me and it was him that was doing it."

While Trump suggested Biden was the driving force behind "every one of" the four indictments he's facing, he said: "I don't think he's sharp enough to think about much, but he was there, and he was probably the one giving the order."

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-says-hed-have-no-choice-but-to-lock-up-political-opponents-if-he-wins-in-2024/

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Trump had a chance in 2016 to go down the road the Dems are taking now. And he didn't. And how did they pay him back? By literally making stuff up to indict him over. He's got every right to punch back, and voters understand that. His supporters love it and it will not hurt him in the middle like you want it to.

---

Several problems with your argument:

1) It's not made up. Trump committed the actions he's been accused of. Now whether those actions are criminal is the issue. But he did them and there's no dispute on that. So it's not accurate to say it's all made up.

2) Voters don't understand. His sycophants might but they comprise a small segment of the voting bloc. Everyone else sees him as a loose cannon.

---

The made up part is that anything he has done is criminal.

You are somewhat closer on item 2. I would rephrase it like this: "a strong majority of Republicans as well as an emerging and growing majority of independents believe it may be time to put a loose cannon to work."

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60% of registered GOP voters and a very small number of independents is more accurate.

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I've posted several recent links of reputable polling firms showing exactly what I stated. Apparently, you've got a poll you like and are running with it.

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Maybe he is referring to the WSJ survey that included all registered voters, not just GOP.

The Republican peril is that more than one-and-a-half times as many voters say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump than more likely. This reflects the tilt of independent voters, as well as the 16% of GOP voters who say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump.

The GOP's Big 2024 Problem
A WSJ poll finds indictments are helping Trump in the Republican primaries, but not with all voters.
The latest Wall Street Journal poll is getting headlines for its news that support for Donald Trump nationwide is now up to 59% in the GOP primary race. But for our money the most important harbinger for 2024 is contained in the responses to another survey question.
The poll finds that in a 2024 general-election test President Biden and the former President are tied at 46%. Given Mr. Trump's myriad legal problems, this shows how weak an incumbent Mr. Biden is. But a poll this far out from Election Day also doesn't tell you much given how events can change.
The better insight comes when respondents were asked: "Do Donald Trump's indictments make you more likely or less likely to vote for him, or have no impact on whether or not you would vote for Donald Trump?"
Among Republican primary voters, here are the responses: More likely to vote for Mr. Trump 48%; less likely 16%, and no effect on their vote 36%.
That result confirms what we've seen this year, which is that the indictments by Democratic prosecutors are helping Mr. Trump win the GOP's presidential nod. The biggest jump in Mr. Trump's support came after the first indictment for hush-money payments by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg, and the other indictments changed that very little. This is exactly the result that Democrats want: Keep the focus on Mr. Trump so he wins the nomination, and then convict him in trials before the general election in November.
That strategy is reinforced by the responses when the WSJ survey asked registered voters the same question about the indictments. Their responses: 24% were more likely to vote for Mr. Trump, but 37% were less likely, and 35% said it would have no effect.
The Republican peril is that more than one-and-a-half times as many voters say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump than more likely. This reflects the tilt of independent voters, as well as the 16% of GOP voters who say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump.
These responses are before any of the coming four trials, three of which are already scheduled before the 2024 general election. An acquittal or hung jury could work in Mr. Trump's favor, which is why the Democratic indictment strategy is high risk.
But one or more convictions would probably confirm the judgment of voters who say they are less likely to vote for Mr. Trump. If Republicans nominate Mr. Trump, they are likely to be sailing into a political headwind that will be difficult to overcome.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-gops-big-2024-problem-wsj-polling-indictments-e3c52288?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

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He's referring to pure polling on independents. I've seen and/or posted here several polls that show Trump ahead with independents. Notably, those polls did not show much movement in the overall race = neck & neck. That's mostly because defining what is/isn't an independent this far away from an election is very difficult to to do.

Note that I do not take it further than "inconclusive," unlike others who impute a 1-point advantage to be determinative in a poll with a 3-point margin of error. The race is close right now and likely will be down to the wire.

What you've posted is an entirely different issue and even more subjective.

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It won't go down to the wire. Trump is going to lose worse than last time.

Wait and see.

---

That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

To be fair, it's no exaggeration to say that Biden has committed some epic blunders. Afghanistan was a huge embarrassment, but in retrospect it was only a warm-up for Ukraine. Public opinion is already starting to turn against the war, and Biden has no easy way out. He's been less than inspiring on the domestic front, to say the least. Even his pandering to the woke agenda has had limited success.

Sam Lowry said:

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To be fair, it's no exaggeration to say that Biden has committed some epic blunders. Afghanistan was a huge embarrassment, but in retrospect it was only a warm-up for Ukraine. Public opinion is already starting to turn against the war, and Biden has no easy way out. He's been less than inspiring on the domestic front, to say the least. Even his pandering to the woke agenda has had limited success.

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I don't disagree with you at all, which is why I would actually vote for Trump if it came down to him and Biden. Biden has been an unmitigated disaster - 10 times worse than anything pre-January 6th. Worst presidency of my lifetime, certainly.

The question is, has he been bad enough that enough people would change their minds and vote for Trump? I don't think so right now. How about you? Think he's performed so poorly that Trump would win if the election were today?

Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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To be fair, it's no exaggeration to say that Biden has committed some epic blunders. Afghanistan was a huge embarrassment, but in retrospect it was only a warm-up for Ukraine. Public opinion is already starting to turn against the war, and Biden has no easy way out. He's been less than inspiring on the domestic front, to say the least. Even his pandering to the woke agenda has had limited success.

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I don't disagree with you at all, which is why I would actually vote for Trump if it came down to him and Biden. Biden has been an unmitigated disaster - 10 times worse than anything pre-January 6th. Worst presidency of my lifetime, certainly.

The question is, has he been bad enough that enough people would change their minds and vote for Trump? I don't think so right now. How about you? Think he's performed so poorly that Trump would win if the election were today?

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I don't really follow the polls, but it seems unlikely.

Mothra said:

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Quote:

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That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

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Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

For those who think Newsom is a white knight for Democrats...... Sign or veto, it looks bad for him.

and it's another twig on the bonfire that +40% of the electorate is evaluating as a potential solution.

This is Communism. https://t.co/823oLel4Xz

— James Lindsay, lawful but awful (@ConceptualJames) September 5, 2023

Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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To be fair, it's no exaggeration to say that Biden has committed some epic blunders. Afghanistan was a huge embarrassment, but in retrospect it was only a warm-up for Ukraine. Public opinion is already starting to turn against the war, and Biden has no easy way out. He's been less than inspiring on the domestic front, to say the least. Even his pandering to the woke agenda has had limited success.

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I don't disagree with you at all, which is why I would actually vote for Trump if it came down to him and Biden. Biden has been an unmitigated disaster - 10 times worse than anything pre-January 6th. Worst presidency of my lifetime, certainly.

The question is, has he been bad enough that enough people would change their minds and vote for Trump? I don't think so right now. How about you? Think he's performed so poorly that Trump would win if the election were today?

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But look at the construction you described. Last election turned on 44k votes. Not many people in the middle have to conclude what you did to reverse the outcome.

Not saying they will. Just noting the dynamic.....

snapshot from a soft blue state. GOP just recaptured a narrow majority in 2022. Looks to be very close again. Will be an implicit referendum on Youngkin.

2023 Virginia Legislative Generic Ballot

Democrats 45% (+1)
Republicans 44%
Undecided 11%
——
Most important issue:
Inflation 24%
Abortion 15%
——
⦿ @coefficientpoll (B+) / @FoundersPolls
⦿ August 17-21 | 957 LV | ±3.17%https://t.co/SVyq4VFXbi pic.twitter.com/EALPtGP6zj

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 5, 2023

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Quote:

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That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

---

Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

---

1) In many ways, Biden IS an irrelevant straw man. Millions of American voters are going to line up to vote against Trump, just like they did last time. Millions of Democrats, independents and Never Trumpers see him as a danger to the Republic. And like last time, they are going to vote for the guy who ISN'T Trump. Moreover, Biden, instead of running on his record, will rightly make this yet another race about Trump. The mantra will be, you can let Trump win and destroy the Republic. That mantra will win the hearts and minds of millions of American voters. And therein lies the problem - for all of the damage Biden has done to the country, it's not going to make much difference IMO when the other choice is a "criminal" and "madman" intent on "destroying Democracy." That is of course how Trump will be characterized. And unfortunately, he has quite a few instances of behavior that the Dems will point to in order to paint that picture.

2) While a majority of Americans may think the indictments are political, a majority also believes Trump committed the conduct complained of, and should be prosecuted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-indictments-polls.html

That does not bode well for Trump, regardless of the political motivations of those prosecuting him.

3) Don't disagree with you on liberals. Ann Coulter was correct when she labeled it a mental disorder. They are some of the most vile, hateful and unforgiving people I know. But they will capitalize on that hatred for Trump in this next election cycle.

4) What is and what should be has nothing to do with Trump's chances. I am merely pointing out the myriad of issues Trump faces in getting re-elected. There are many. And I am not going to pretend there are not many. Trump is an abysmal candidate, and will very likely lose once again to Biden as an even more unpopular, resentful old man. He spends more time attacking his fellow candidates than Biden and his policies.

I give him a 1 in 10 shot at beating Biden.

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Quote:

---

That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

---

Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

---

1) In many ways, Biden IS an irrelevant straw man. Millions of American voters are going to line up to vote against Trump, just like they did last time. Millions of Democrats, independents and Never Trumpers see him as a danger to the Republic. And like last time, they are going to vote for the guy who ISN'T Trump. Moreover, Biden, instead of running on his record, will rightly make this yet another race about Trump. The mantra will be, you can let Trump win and destroy the Republic. That mantra will win the hearts and minds of millions of American voters. And therein lies the problem - for all of the damage Biden has done to the country, it's not going to make much difference IMO when the other choice is a "criminal" and "madman" intent on "destroying Democracy." That is of course how Trump will be characterized. And unfortunately, he has quite a few instances of behavior that the Dems will point to in order to paint that picture.

2) While a majority of Americans may think the indictments are political, a majority also believes Trump committed the conduct complained of, and should be prosecuted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-indictments-polls.html

That does not bode well for Trump, regardless of the political motivations of those prosecuting him.

3) Don't disagree with you on liberals. Ann Coulter was correct when she labeled it a mental disorder. They are some of the most vile, hateful and unforgiving people I know. But they will capitalize on that hatred for Trump in this next election cycle.

4) What is and what should be has nothing to do with Trump's chances. I am merely pointing out the myriad of issues Trump faces in getting re-elected. There are many. And I am not going to pretend there are not many. Trump is an abysmal candidate, and will very likely lose once again to Biden as an even more unpopular, resentful old man. He spends more time attacking his fellow candidates than Biden and his policies.

I give him a 1 in 10 shot at beating Biden.

---

If it really was only 1 in 10, would would not be seeing, repeatedly, polling like the one below.

It is more than possible that voters will look at the two men and decide that Biden is worse.

🚨NATIONAL POLL: Echelon (A/B)

PRES:
(R) Trump 46% [+2]
(D) Biden 45% [-1]
.
(D) Biden 44% [=]
(R) DeSantis 40% [-1]

[Change vs July]
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 52%
DeSantis 15%
Ramaswamy 12%
Pence 6%
Haley 4%
Christie 3%

H2H:
Trump 64%
DeSantis 26%
——
1,022 LV (397 R's) | 8/28-31… pic.twitter.com/ecLOFAN5ap

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2023

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Quote:

---

That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

---

Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

---

1) In many ways, Biden IS an irrelevant straw man. Millions of American voters are going to line up to vote against Trump, just like they did last time. Millions of Democrats, independents and Never Trumpers see him as a danger to the Republic. And like last time, they are going to vote for the guy who ISN'T Trump. Moreover, Biden, instead of running on his record, will rightly make this yet another race about Trump. The mantra will be, you can let Trump win and destroy the Republic. That mantra will win the hearts and minds of millions of American voters. And therein lies the problem - for all of the damage Biden has done to the country, it's not going to make much difference IMO when the other choice is a "criminal" and "madman" intent on "destroying Democracy." That is of course how Trump will be characterized. And unfortunately, he has quite a few instances of behavior that the Dems will point to in order to paint that picture.

2) While a majority of Americans may think the indictments are political, a majority also believes Trump committed the conduct complained of, and should be prosecuted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-indictments-polls.html

That does not bode well for Trump, regardless of the political motivations of those prosecuting him.

3) Don't disagree with you on liberals. Ann Coulter was correct when she labeled it a mental disorder. They are some of the most vile, hateful and unforgiving people I know. But they will capitalize on that hatred for Trump in this next election cycle.

4) What is and what should be has nothing to do with Trump's chances. I am merely pointing out the myriad of issues Trump faces in getting re-elected. There are many. And I am not going to pretend there are not many. Trump is an abysmal candidate, and will very likely lose once again to Biden as an even more unpopular, resentful old man. He spends more time attacking his fellow candidates than Biden and his policies.

I give him a 1 in 10 shot at beating Biden.

---

It is more than possible that voters will look at the two men and decide that Biden is worse.

---

Extremely doubtful, especially when the Trump revenge and pettiness tour get started in earnest, and the trials begin. Wait and see.

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Quote:

---

That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

---

Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

---

1) In many ways, Biden IS an irrelevant straw man. Millions of American voters are going to line up to vote against Trump, just like they did last time. Millions of Democrats, independents and Never Trumpers see him as a danger to the Republic. And like last time, they are going to vote for the guy who ISN'T Trump. Moreover, Biden, instead of running on his record, will rightly make this yet another race about Trump. The mantra will be, you can let Trump win and destroy the Republic. That mantra will win the hearts and minds of millions of American voters. And therein lies the problem - for all of the damage Biden has done to the country, it's not going to make much difference IMO when the other choice is a "criminal" and "madman" intent on "destroying Democracy." That is of course how Trump will be characterized. And unfortunately, he has quite a few instances of behavior that the Dems will point to in order to paint that picture.

2) While a majority of Americans may think the indictments are political, a majority also believes Trump committed the conduct complained of, and should be prosecuted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-indictments-polls.html

That does not bode well for Trump, regardless of the political motivations of those prosecuting him.

3) Don't disagree with you on liberals. Ann Coulter was correct when she labeled it a mental disorder. They are some of the most vile, hateful and unforgiving people I know. But they will capitalize on that hatred for Trump in this next election cycle.

4) What is and what should be has nothing to do with Trump's chances. I am merely pointing out the myriad of issues Trump faces in getting re-elected. There are many. And I am not going to pretend there are not many. Trump is an abysmal candidate, and will very likely lose once again to Biden as an even more unpopular, resentful old man. He spends more time attacking his fellow candidates than Biden and his policies.

I give him a 1 in 10 shot at beating Biden.

---

It is more than possible that voters will look at the two men and decide that Biden is worse.

---

Extremely doubtful, especially when the Trump revenge and pettiness tour get started in earnest, and the trials begin. Wait and see.

---

There you go again, removing Biden from the equation entirely. He's gonna have a rough 18 months, too.....

There will be several millions of people just like OSO, vowing to sit it out, vote 3rd party, etc....."I'm too good to throw my vote away on either of those pieces of *hit".,...who are still watching. Still evaluating. They'll never admit it, but they've actually not completely made up their mind. And a LOT of them are going to see what's going down and decide that the nation can survive a 2nd Trump term, but cannot survive a 2nd Biden term. . And in a closely divided election, it won't take very many.

Biden has real scandals about to erupt. A terrible record on things voters care about. And no enthusiasm from any part of his coalition. When things start heating up, he's gonna sag some more. Trump, by contrast...well, just look at the millions of metric tons of stuff thrown at him, biblical proportions type things....and he's neck & neck & maybe pulling into a narrow lead. It's beyond improbable. How could that be? Among several things we can intuit from that is = his floor is cast iron. And Biden's is not.


I'm not making the case that Trump can't lose.
I'm just pointing out what you're missing.
I'm pointing out why the polls are so much better for Trump than sensible people think they should be.
Biden matters, too......

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Quote:

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That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

---

Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

---

1) In many ways, Biden IS an irrelevant straw man. Millions of American voters are going to line up to vote against Trump, just like they did last time. Millions of Democrats, independents and Never Trumpers see him as a danger to the Republic. And like last time, they are going to vote for the guy who ISN'T Trump. Moreover, Biden, instead of running on his record, will rightly make this yet another race about Trump. The mantra will be, you can let Trump win and destroy the Republic. That mantra will win the hearts and minds of millions of American voters. And therein lies the problem - for all of the damage Biden has done to the country, it's not going to make much difference IMO when the other choice is a "criminal" and "madman" intent on "destroying Democracy." That is of course how Trump will be characterized. And unfortunately, he has quite a few instances of behavior that the Dems will point to in order to paint that picture.

2) While a majority of Americans may think the indictments are political, a majority also believes Trump committed the conduct complained of, and should be prosecuted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-indictments-polls.html

That does not bode well for Trump, regardless of the political motivations of those prosecuting him.

3) Don't disagree with you on liberals. Ann Coulter was correct when she labeled it a mental disorder. They are some of the most vile, hateful and unforgiving people I know. But they will capitalize on that hatred for Trump in this next election cycle.

4) What is and what should be has nothing to do with Trump's chances. I am merely pointing out the myriad of issues Trump faces in getting re-elected. There are many. And I am not going to pretend there are not many. Trump is an abysmal candidate, and will very likely lose once again to Biden as an even more unpopular, resentful old man. He spends more time attacking his fellow candidates than Biden and his policies.

I give him a 1 in 10 shot at beating Biden.

---

It is more than possible that voters will look at the two men and decide that Biden is worse.

---

Extremely doubtful, especially when the Trump revenge and pettiness tour get started in earnest, and the trials begin. Wait and see.

---

There you go again, removing Biden from the equation entirely. He's gonna have a rough 18 months, too.....

There will be several millions of people just like OSO, vowing to sit it out, vote 3rd party, etc....."I'm too good to throw my vote away on either of those pieces of *hit".,...who are still watching. Still evaluating. They'll never admit it, but they've actually not completely made up their mind. And a LOT of them are going to see what's going down and decide that the nation can survive a 2nd Trump term, but cannot survive a 2nd Biden term. . And in a closely divided election, it won't take very many.

Biden has real scandals about to erupt. A terrible record on things voters care about. And no enthusiasm from any part of his coalition. When things start heating up, he's gonna sag some more. Trump, by contrast...well, just look at the millions of metric tons of stuff thrown at him, biblical proportions type things....and he's neck & neck & maybe pulling into a narrow lead. It's beyond improbable. How could that be? Among several things we can intuit from that is = his floor is cast iron. And Biden's is not.


I'm not making the case that Trump can't lose.
I'm just pointing out what you're missing.
I'm pointing out why the polls are so much better for Trump than sensible people think they should be.
Biden matters, too......

---

It's not taking Biden out of the equation. Could he do things that result in his popularity decreasing? Certainly. He could also do things to improve his popularity. These are all unknowns, and speculation at best. All we can go on is the here and now.

The argument that the nation watching as the four criminal trials against Trump proceed can't do any more damage to Trump's popularity, or is somehow the equivalent of the Hunter Biden scandal, is remarkable, to say the least. I simply don't buy the nonsensical argument that Trump can't be further damaged by the criminal trials, or future conduct, while Biden can. Trump could indeed. Hell, he could be in a GA jail before the election.

But all we have to go by is what we know today. And what we know today is Trump is less popular than Biden in most every poll. And that is not a good sign at all.

As I suggested much earlier in this thread, it is a terrible thing when your only hope is the other guy will be a bigger pile of steaming hot dog **** than you.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Quote:

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That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

---

Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

---

1) In many ways, Biden IS an irrelevant straw man. Millions of American voters are going to line up to vote against Trump, just like they did last time. Millions of Democrats, independents and Never Trumpers see him as a danger to the Republic. And like last time, they are going to vote for the guy who ISN'T Trump. Moreover, Biden, instead of running on his record, will rightly make this yet another race about Trump. The mantra will be, you can let Trump win and destroy the Republic. That mantra will win the hearts and minds of millions of American voters. And therein lies the problem - for all of the damage Biden has done to the country, it's not going to make much difference IMO when the other choice is a "criminal" and "madman" intent on "destroying Democracy." That is of course how Trump will be characterized. And unfortunately, he has quite a few instances of behavior that the Dems will point to in order to paint that picture.

2) While a majority of Americans may think the indictments are political, a majority also believes Trump committed the conduct complained of, and should be prosecuted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-indictments-polls.html

That does not bode well for Trump, regardless of the political motivations of those prosecuting him.

3) Don't disagree with you on liberals. Ann Coulter was correct when she labeled it a mental disorder. They are some of the most vile, hateful and unforgiving people I know. But they will capitalize on that hatred for Trump in this next election cycle.

4) What is and what should be has nothing to do with Trump's chances. I am merely pointing out the myriad of issues Trump faces in getting re-elected. There are many. And I am not going to pretend there are not many. Trump is an abysmal candidate, and will very likely lose once again to Biden as an even more unpopular, resentful old man. He spends more time attacking his fellow candidates than Biden and his policies.

I give him a 1 in 10 shot at beating Biden.

---

It is more than possible that voters will look at the two men and decide that Biden is worse.

---

Extremely doubtful, especially when the Trump revenge and pettiness tour get started in earnest, and the trials begin. Wait and see.

---

There you go again, removing Biden from the equation entirely. He's gonna have a rough 18 months, too.....

There will be several millions of people just like OSO, vowing to sit it out, vote 3rd party, etc....."I'm too good to throw my vote away on either of those pieces of *hit".,...who are still watching. Still evaluating. They'll never admit it, but they've actually not completely made up their mind. And a LOT of them are going to see what's going down and decide that the nation can survive a 2nd Trump term, but cannot survive a 2nd Biden term. . And in a closely divided election, it won't take very many.

Biden has real scandals about to erupt. A terrible record on things voters care about. And no enthusiasm from any part of his coalition. When things start heating up, he's gonna sag some more. Trump, by contrast...well, just look at the millions of metric tons of stuff thrown at him, biblical proportions type things....and he's neck & neck & maybe pulling into a narrow lead. It's beyond improbable. How could that be? Among several things we can intuit from that is = his floor is cast iron. And Biden's is not.


I'm not making the case that Trump can't lose.
I'm just pointing out what you're missing.
I'm pointing out why the polls are so much better for Trump than sensible people think they should be.
Biden matters, too......

---

It's not taking Biden out of the equation. Could he do things that result in his popularity decreasing? Certainly. He could also do things to improve his popularity. These are all unknowns, and speculation at best. All we can go on is the here and now.

The argument that the nation watching as the four criminal trials against Trump proceed can't do any more damage to Trump's popularity, or is somehow the equivalent of the Hunter Biden scandal, is remarkable, to say the least. I simply don't buy the nonsensical argument that Trump can't be further damaged by the criminal trials, or future conduct, while Biden can. Trump could indeed. Hell, he could be in a GA jail before the election.

But all we have to go by is what we know today. And what we know today is Trump is less popular than Biden in most every poll. And that is not a good sign at all.

As I suggested much earlier in this thread, it is a terrible thing when your only hope is the other guy will be a bigger pile of steaming hot dog **** than you.

---

LOL Are you talking about Trump, or Biden?

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Quote:

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That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

---

Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

---

1) In many ways, Biden IS an irrelevant straw man. Millions of American voters are going to line up to vote against Trump, just like they did last time. Millions of Democrats, independents and Never Trumpers see him as a danger to the Republic. And like last time, they are going to vote for the guy who ISN'T Trump. Moreover, Biden, instead of running on his record, will rightly make this yet another race about Trump. The mantra will be, you can let Trump win and destroy the Republic. That mantra will win the hearts and minds of millions of American voters. And therein lies the problem - for all of the damage Biden has done to the country, it's not going to make much difference IMO when the other choice is a "criminal" and "madman" intent on "destroying Democracy." That is of course how Trump will be characterized. And unfortunately, he has quite a few instances of behavior that the Dems will point to in order to paint that picture.

2) While a majority of Americans may think the indictments are political, a majority also believes Trump committed the conduct complained of, and should be prosecuted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-indictments-polls.html

That does not bode well for Trump, regardless of the political motivations of those prosecuting him.

3) Don't disagree with you on liberals. Ann Coulter was correct when she labeled it a mental disorder. They are some of the most vile, hateful and unforgiving people I know. But they will capitalize on that hatred for Trump in this next election cycle.

4) What is and what should be has nothing to do with Trump's chances. I am merely pointing out the myriad of issues Trump faces in getting re-elected. There are many. And I am not going to pretend there are not many. Trump is an abysmal candidate, and will very likely lose once again to Biden as an even more unpopular, resentful old man. He spends more time attacking his fellow candidates than Biden and his policies.

I give him a 1 in 10 shot at beating Biden.

---

It is more than possible that voters will look at the two men and decide that Biden is worse.

---

Extremely doubtful, especially when the Trump revenge and pettiness tour get started in earnest, and the trials begin. Wait and see.

---

There you go again, removing Biden from the equation entirely. He's gonna have a rough 18 months, too.....

There will be several millions of people just like OSO, vowing to sit it out, vote 3rd party, etc....."I'm too good to throw my vote away on either of those pieces of *hit".,...who are still watching. Still evaluating. They'll never admit it, but they've actually not completely made up their mind. And a LOT of them are going to see what's going down and decide that the nation can survive a 2nd Trump term, but cannot survive a 2nd Biden term. . And in a closely divided election, it won't take very many.

Biden has real scandals about to erupt. A terrible record on things voters care about. And no enthusiasm from any part of his coalition. When things start heating up, he's gonna sag some more. Trump, by contrast...well, just look at the millions of metric tons of stuff thrown at him, biblical proportions type things....and he's neck & neck & maybe pulling into a narrow lead. It's beyond improbable. How could that be? Among several things we can intuit from that is = his floor is cast iron. And Biden's is not.


I'm not making the case that Trump can't lose.
I'm just pointing out what you're missing.
I'm pointing out why the polls are so much better for Trump than sensible people think they should be.
Biden matters, too......

---

It's not taking Biden out of the equation. Could he do things that result in his popularity decreasing? Certainly. He could also do things to improve his popularity. These are all unknowns, and speculation at best. All we can go on is the here and now.

The argument that the nation watching as the four criminal trials against Trump proceed can't do any more damage to Trump's popularity, or is somehow the equivalent of the Hunter Biden scandal, is remarkable, to say the least. I simply don't buy the nonsensical argument that Trump can't be further damaged by the criminal trials, or future conduct, while Biden can. Trump could indeed. Hell, he could be in a GA jail before the election.

But all we have to go by is what we know today. And what we know today is Trump is less popular than Biden in most every poll. And that is not a good sign at all.

As I suggested much earlier in this thread, it is a terrible thing when your only hope is the other guy will be a bigger pile of steaming hot dog **** than you.

---

LOL Are you talking about Trump, or Biden?

---

I am mainly referring to your argument that Biden is a bigger pile of dog **** than Trump. But it certainly could apply to both, given the quality of the candidates.

Just imagine if we ran something other than a steaming pile of hot dog **** against Biden. We might actually win!

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

---

Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

---

1) In many ways, Biden IS an irrelevant straw man. Millions of American voters are going to line up to vote against Trump, just like they did last time. Millions of Democrats, independents and Never Trumpers see him as a danger to the Republic. And like last time, they are going to vote for the guy who ISN'T Trump. Moreover, Biden, instead of running on his record, will rightly make this yet another race about Trump. The mantra will be, you can let Trump win and destroy the Republic. That mantra will win the hearts and minds of millions of American voters. And therein lies the problem - for all of the damage Biden has done to the country, it's not going to make much difference IMO when the other choice is a "criminal" and "madman" intent on "destroying Democracy." That is of course how Trump will be characterized. And unfortunately, he has quite a few instances of behavior that the Dems will point to in order to paint that picture.

2) While a majority of Americans may think the indictments are political, a majority also believes Trump committed the conduct complained of, and should be prosecuted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-indictments-polls.html

That does not bode well for Trump, regardless of the political motivations of those prosecuting him.

3) Don't disagree with you on liberals. Ann Coulter was correct when she labeled it a mental disorder. They are some of the most vile, hateful and unforgiving people I know. But they will capitalize on that hatred for Trump in this next election cycle.

4) What is and what should be has nothing to do with Trump's chances. I am merely pointing out the myriad of issues Trump faces in getting re-elected. There are many. And I am not going to pretend there are not many. Trump is an abysmal candidate, and will very likely lose once again to Biden as an even more unpopular, resentful old man. He spends more time attacking his fellow candidates than Biden and his policies.

I give him a 1 in 10 shot at beating Biden.

---

It is more than possible that voters will look at the two men and decide that Biden is worse.

---

Extremely doubtful, especially when the Trump revenge and pettiness tour get started in earnest, and the trials begin. Wait and see.

---

There you go again, removing Biden from the equation entirely. He's gonna have a rough 18 months, too.....

There will be several millions of people just like OSO, vowing to sit it out, vote 3rd party, etc....."I'm too good to throw my vote away on either of those pieces of *hit".,...who are still watching. Still evaluating. They'll never admit it, but they've actually not completely made up their mind. And a LOT of them are going to see what's going down and decide that the nation can survive a 2nd Trump term, but cannot survive a 2nd Biden term. . And in a closely divided election, it won't take very many.

Biden has real scandals about to erupt. A terrible record on things voters care about. And no enthusiasm from any part of his coalition. When things start heating up, he's gonna sag some more. Trump, by contrast...well, just look at the millions of metric tons of stuff thrown at him, biblical proportions type things....and he's neck & neck & maybe pulling into a narrow lead. It's beyond improbable. How could that be? Among several things we can intuit from that is = his floor is cast iron. And Biden's is not.


I'm not making the case that Trump can't lose.
I'm just pointing out what you're missing.
I'm pointing out why the polls are so much better for Trump than sensible people think they should be.
Biden matters, too......

---

It's not taking Biden out of the equation. Could he do things that result in his popularity decreasing? Certainly. He could also do things to improve his popularity. These are all unknowns, and speculation at best. All we can go on is the here and now.

The argument that the nation watching as the four criminal trials against Trump proceed can't do any more damage to Trump's popularity, or is somehow the equivalent of the Hunter Biden scandal, is remarkable, to say the least. I simply don't buy the nonsensical argument that Trump can't be further damaged by the criminal trials, or future conduct, while Biden can. Trump could indeed. Hell, he could be in a GA jail before the election.

But all we have to go by is what we know today. And what we know today is Trump is less popular than Biden in most every poll. And that is not a good sign at all.

As I suggested much earlier in this thread, it is a terrible thing when your only hope is the other guy will be a bigger pile of steaming hot dog **** than you.

---

LOL Are you talking about Trump, or Biden?

---

I am mainly referring to your argument that Biden is a bigger pile of dog **** than Trump. But it certainly could apply to both, given the quality of the candidates.

Just imagine if we ran something other than a steaming pile of hot dog **** against Biden. We might actually win!

---

Sure. Run a guy/gal with 15% support of the primary and see how it works out for you. Sounds all well and good that some 2nd or 3rd place candidate in the primary is a better match-up in the general, but…..nobody's ever tried that. There is no precedent for it. And in a 51/49 race, it might be a relevant question. But the race right now is a far cry from that. Trump is 20-pts or so ahead of the whole field combined. So I really do get the point that if the other side is running a ******bag, planning to win a slightly lesser ******bag is not a terribly inspiring strategy. But it' looks like the one we have. And it's not as bleak as you keep painting it. Except for RDS. I fear his campaign is in a death spiral.

🚨 NATIONAL POLL: @premisedata

PRES:
(R) Trump 44% (+6)
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37% (+2)
(R) DeSantis 35%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 61% (+49)
DeSantis 12%
Pence 6%
Haley 5%
Ramaswamy 5%
.
H2H:
Trump 66% (+42)
DeSantis 24%
——
1,387 RV (415 R's) | 8/30-9/5https://t.co/qeIbkVOIn6 pic.twitter.com/GKwhPSj9rl

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2023

🚨 NATIONAL POLL: @MorningConsult

PRES:
(D) Biden 44% (+3)
(R) Trump 41%
.
(D) Biden 44% (+5)
(R) DeSantis 39%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60% (+45)
DeSantis 15%
Ramaswamy 8%
Pence 6%
Haley 5%
——
5,000 RV | 3,745 GOP RVs | 9/2-4https://t.co/l71qO5QJDL pic.twitter.com/qSngrfUFay

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2023

interesting.......

🇺🇲 2024 GE POLL: CNN/SSRS

Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%

DeSantis 47% (=)
Biden 47%

Haley 49% (+6)
Biden 43%

Pence 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Scott 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Biden 46% (+1)
Ramaswamy 45%

Christie 44% (+2)
Biden 42%

August 25-31 | RVshttps://t.co/iX0cdEPgZh

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 7, 2023

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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That may be the case. But it is betting on the come. The polling right now does not indicate that. Neither does it show any of his GOP competitors doing significantly better.

If we are going to handicap the future, we have to consider dynamics affecting BOTH candidates. My sense is that Biden has a softer floor. He has the albatross of being an incumbent at a time when the electorate is restless because nothing is going particularly well, amid a quite serious and more importantly, a substantively real scandal afoot. Neither of those issues is going to rebound in his favor. Both are going to worsen. His support in 12 months could be 5-20 points below where it is now. Your argument is basically, a harrumph that Trump can't win no matter how bad it gets for Biden. It's hardly unserious to suggest that such is unserious. Trump is not an incumbent. We know what is problems are. They are serious, but not insurmountable given that the worst of them appear to be helping him. Against that, Trump does have a record in office which is quite appealing compared to what we are seeing from his successor. Trump presided over a period of peace and prosperity, so there are some positive things to talk about that will have particular appeal in the moment.

Note, I am not advocating anything. I am merely handicapping what seems most likely to happen - an ugly contest between two highly unpopular and flawed men. That should be a competitive race. Trump can win it. Whether he does nor not will depend on what happens between now and election day. I've given up trying to handicap his legal issues. They should have already turned him out to pasture, but counter-intuitively, they seem to be making him stronger. That should warn the analyst that this election may not hinge on traditional fulcrums. Focusing on popularity and independents is never irrelevant, of course. But there are plenty of indicators that other issues might have greater impact.

Trump seems laser focused on making this election a referendum on the uni-party, building a wave of disgust with ruling elites which propels into office someone who purposely break old things and build new ones. That is a VERY high-risk proposition. But the table is indeed set for that kind of campaign. A broad swathe of the public is being very poorly severed by their social contract. The only question is, can he execute it. A reasonable argument could be made that no candidate on either side is better suited for such a task. That is not to say he will be successful. But it will be interesting, to say the least.

---

Your argument ignores several things:

1) Trump is essentially an incumbent. He's just a couple of years removed from office in an election that was essentially a referendum on Trump's policies and leadership.
LOL At every point, you argument treats Biden as an irrelevant straw man. Trump is not THE incumbent. He did not cause our current problems. Biden did. Trump cannot fix them. Biden will have to (and won't). Trump will not have to deal with anything derivative of them (Biden does, and won't). Biden has that burden and Trump doesn't. To the extent the decision becomes "which did a better job?".....that is a comparison we should invite.

2) Biden's "scandals" pale in comparison to Trump's. In fact, they're not even in the same universe. Whether you believe it or not, Trump is in very real danger of being convicted of multiple crimes - especially in the documents case, and in Georgia. RICO is squishy enough for a hostile jury to find a guilty verdict against Trump. And I think he's clearly guilty in the documents case. His only defense there is others engaged in similar conduct (though not nearly to his extent). That's a loser, as he meets all of the elements of a criminal conviction under the statute. And then of course there are the civil lawsuits, which we haven't even touched.
Trump is not likely to stand trial on the federal cases before the election. Convictions on the state charges would seem to be a problem. But then.....investigations were presumably going to be a problem, and one would certainly have thought indictments would have been a deal breaker. Counter-intuitively, they have had the opposite effect. A majority of the public sees his prosecutions as politics gone wildly out of control. So while I recognize the very conventional wisdom of your argument, recent dynamics should cause an analyst to pause and consider whether or not we are still in Kansas. How can we blithely presume a conviction will make a difference, if not actually help him? He is going to use the trial as a campaign platform......

3) Trump's record in office is only appealing to a little less than half of the population. The other half hated his time in office. They hated conservative judicial appointments. They hated his border policies, which they found inhumane and racist. They hated his COVID policies. Etc. It appears to me your circle of friends is either small or like-minded, because you're seriously out of touch with how a large swatch of Americans feel about Trump. Having a number of liberals in the family, I can say decidedly that their hatred for his policies is palpable.
Each of those things is true for Biden, too. SCOTUS appointments have indeed been a problem on the abortion issue, but minds have changed on the border. On covid. And don't pay too much attention to liberals. They hate. It's just what they do. They hate anyone who disagrees with them, anything which conflicts with their feelings. I, too, have liberals in the family, including a couple of wild-eyed, Beto-head progressive niece-in-laws. Ironically, they do not get along with each other. Literally will not appear together at a family event. Husbands have to negotiate which one comes and which one sits out. Instructive, that is....

Again, I think you're either trying to put a nice spin on Trump's chances, or you truly don't understand the number of Americans that hate Trump with the ferocity of a thousand burning suns. People will vote for a wet paper bag over him. It will not matter who is on the other side of the ticket for most, or how bad a job that individual has done. Trump is far less popular among the GOP, much less the public as a whole. Biden would have to commit a blunder of epic proportions for a meaner, more controversial, more petty, and less likable Trump to ever win another election. And if it's not Biden, but some new blood, like Newsom, it's not even going to be close. The only reason Trump even has a chance at this point is because he's running against the worst president since Carter.

---

Your last sentence in italics is the one which matters most. You are hardly alone in making the error of spending too much time focusing on what SHOULD be, rather than what is. We should be evaluating better men, statesmen with bold vision to engage in social contract to benefit common good. But that's not the choice before us. We are +95% likely to have a Trump/BIden rematch. No other Democrat, today, polls better than Biden. No other Republican, today, polls better against Biden than Trump. Yes, I know....a Trump/Biden race will be a fight knee deep in pi$$-water to see which turd smells least bad. And we STILL have to win it. For our kids and grandkids. Even the kids and grandkids of our liberal loved ones.
We do it for them, too.

---

1) In many ways, Biden IS an irrelevant straw man. Millions of American voters are going to line up to vote against Trump, just like they did last time. Millions of Democrats, independents and Never Trumpers see him as a danger to the Republic. And like last time, they are going to vote for the guy who ISN'T Trump. Moreover, Biden, instead of running on his record, will rightly make this yet another race about Trump. The mantra will be, you can let Trump win and destroy the Republic. That mantra will win the hearts and minds of millions of American voters. And therein lies the problem - for all of the damage Biden has done to the country, it's not going to make much difference IMO when the other choice is a "criminal" and "madman" intent on "destroying Democracy." That is of course how Trump will be characterized. And unfortunately, he has quite a few instances of behavior that the Dems will point to in order to paint that picture.

2) While a majority of Americans may think the indictments are political, a majority also believes Trump committed the conduct complained of, and should be prosecuted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-indictments-polls.html

That does not bode well for Trump, regardless of the political motivations of those prosecuting him.

3) Don't disagree with you on liberals. Ann Coulter was correct when she labeled it a mental disorder. They are some of the most vile, hateful and unforgiving people I know. But they will capitalize on that hatred for Trump in this next election cycle.

4) What is and what should be has nothing to do with Trump's chances. I am merely pointing out the myriad of issues Trump faces in getting re-elected. There are many. And I am not going to pretend there are not many. Trump is an abysmal candidate, and will very likely lose once again to Biden as an even more unpopular, resentful old man. He spends more time attacking his fellow candidates than Biden and his policies.

I give him a 1 in 10 shot at beating Biden.

---

It is more than possible that voters will look at the two men and decide that Biden is worse.

---

Extremely doubtful, especially when the Trump revenge and pettiness tour get started in earnest, and the trials begin. Wait and see.

---

There you go again, removing Biden from the equation entirely. He's gonna have a rough 18 months, too.....

There will be several millions of people just like OSO, vowing to sit it out, vote 3rd party, etc....."I'm too good to throw my vote away on either of those pieces of *hit".,...who are still watching. Still evaluating. They'll never admit it, but they've actually not completely made up their mind. And a LOT of them are going to see what's going down and decide that the nation can survive a 2nd Trump term, but cannot survive a 2nd Biden term. . And in a closely divided election, it won't take very many.

Biden has real scandals about to erupt. A terrible record on things voters care about. And no enthusiasm from any part of his coalition. When things start heating up, he's gonna sag some more. Trump, by contrast...well, just look at the millions of metric tons of stuff thrown at him, biblical proportions type things....and he's neck & neck & maybe pulling into a narrow lead. It's beyond improbable. How could that be? Among several things we can intuit from that is = his floor is cast iron. And Biden's is not.


I'm not making the case that Trump can't lose.
I'm just pointing out what you're missing.
I'm pointing out why the polls are so much better for Trump than sensible people think they should be.
Biden matters, too......

---

It's not taking Biden out of the equation. Could he do things that result in his popularity decreasing? Certainly. He could also do things to improve his popularity. These are all unknowns, and speculation at best. All we can go on is the here and now.

The argument that the nation watching as the four criminal trials against Trump proceed can't do any more damage to Trump's popularity, or is somehow the equivalent of the Hunter Biden scandal, is remarkable, to say the least. I simply don't buy the nonsensical argument that Trump can't be further damaged by the criminal trials, or future conduct, while Biden can. Trump could indeed. Hell, he could be in a GA jail before the election.

But all we have to go by is what we know today. And what we know today is Trump is less popular than Biden in most every poll. And that is not a good sign at all.

As I suggested much earlier in this thread, it is a terrible thing when your only hope is the other guy will be a bigger pile of steaming hot dog **** than you.

---

LOL Are you talking about Trump, or Biden?

---

I am mainly referring to your argument that Biden is a bigger pile of dog **** than Trump. But it certainly could apply to both, given the quality of the candidates.

Just imagine if we ran something other than a steaming pile of hot dog **** against Biden. We might actually win!

---

Sure. Run a guy/gal with 15% support of the primary and see how it works out for you. Sounds all well and good that some 2nd or 3rd place candidate in the primary is a better match-up in the general, but…..nobody's ever tried that. There is no precedent for it. And in a 51/49 race, it might be a relevant question. But the race right now is a far cry from that. Trump is 20-pts or so ahead of the whole field combined. So I really do get the point that if the other side is running a ******bag, planning to win a slightly lesser ******bag is not a terribly inspiring strategy. But it' looks like the one we have. And it's not as bleak as you keep painting it. Except for RDS. I fear his campaign is in a death spiral.

🚨 NATIONAL POLL: @premisedata

PRES:
(R) Trump 44% (+6)
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37% (+2)
(R) DeSantis 35%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 61% (+49)
DeSantis 12%
Pence 6%
Haley 5%
Ramaswamy 5%
.
H2H:
Trump 66% (+42)
DeSantis 24%
——
1,387 RV (415 R's) | 8/30-9/5https://t.co/qeIbkVOIn6 pic.twitter.com/GKwhPSj9rl

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2023

---

I am not suggesting running an individual who can't win the nom. What I am suggesting is that if Trump were not in this race, then a qualified nominee without Trump's excessive baggage would stand a better shot in the general election, given the fact that Trump's base, while strong inside GOP circles, doesn't have nearly the cross-over appeal for Dems and independents. We both know that a large swath of the GOP voters are going to get behind and vote for whomever the nominee is. So you're not exactly being intellectually honest when you suggest Trump is our best chance of winning. Again, popularity among a majority of voters inside the GOP does not equal popularity among the general public.

If Trump is the nom, it is not even close to as optimistic as the picture you paint, and is much closer to the bleak picture I paint. Wait and see.

whiterock said:

---

interesting.......

🇺🇲 2024 GE POLL: CNN/SSRS

Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%

DeSantis 47% (=)
Biden 47%

Haley 49% (+6)
Biden 43%

Pence 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Scott 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Biden 46% (+1)
Ramaswamy 45%

Christie 44% (+2)
Biden 42%

August 25-31 | RVshttps://t.co/iX0cdEPgZh

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 7, 2023

---

Well, look at that. So when it's a clear binary choice, there are other potential candidates performing as well as, and in some cases, better than Trump! I think somebody just suggested that in a previous post - in response to your suggestion that Trump is our best chance of winning.

Wonder who that was....

Two-thirds of Democrat-leaning voters say the party should not nominate President Biden for a second term, with nearly half citing his age as their biggest concern. https://t.co/yib8VmzxRB

— Axios (@axios) September 7, 2023

boognish_bear said:

---

Two-thirds of Democrat-leaning voters say the party should not nominate President Biden for a second term, with nearly half citing his age as their biggest concern. https://t.co/yib8VmzxRB

— Axios (@axios) September 7, 2023

---

they should cite his crappy policies but i digress

Herber Hoover "signed a letter", guys. Sure, Jan.

Fourteen presidents indirectly called out Trump's threat to democracy today. Thirteen former presidents signed a letter. The current one released an ad. https://t.co/jabs6cJML8

— Philip Bump (@pbump) September 7, 2023

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

interesting.......

🇺🇲 2024 GE POLL: CNN/SSRS

Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%

DeSantis 47% (=)
Biden 47%

Haley 49% (+6)
Biden 43%

Pence 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Scott 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Biden 46% (+1)
Ramaswamy 45%

Christie 44% (+2)
Biden 42%

August 25-31 | RVshttps://t.co/iX0cdEPgZh

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 7, 2023

---

Well, look at that. So when it's a clear binary choice, there are other potential candidates performing as well as, and in some cases, better than Trump! I think somebody just suggested that in a previous post - in response to your suggestion that Trump is our best chance of winning.

Wonder who that was....

---

Let's put some perspective alongside the hyperbole:
1). ONE candidate is in this poll is doing outside the standard deviation better vs Biden than Trump. The rest are effectively tied (without parsing overall support numbers, which would further mitigate things).
2). That may or may not last. If you remember, there was a time when another candidate on that list was running substantially better vs Biden than than Trump. Now, that guy isn't. (For several reasons.). The new one has yet to run the gauntlet the other one endured. She may make it. She may not. Making the leap from a statewide to a national race is VERY hard. (I think I've said that a few times. And events have (not surprisingly) proven that out..)
3). this is only one poll, several points worse for Trump and better for RDS than the one I posted most recently. How do we know which is the outlier and which is the mean? We watch and we wait. So don't get out over your skis. It's still very early

How has God not striken down this absolutely useless human being https://t.co/BBjkhX3p15

— Bushwhacker (@anglotradboy) September 7, 2023

Jack Bauer said:

---

Herber Hoover "signed a letter", guys. Sure, Jan.

---

13 former presidents? Ouija board used?

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

interesting.......

🇺🇲 2024 GE POLL: CNN/SSRS

Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%

DeSantis 47% (=)
Biden 47%

Haley 49% (+6)
Biden 43%

Pence 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Scott 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Biden 46% (+1)
Ramaswamy 45%

Christie 44% (+2)
Biden 42%

August 25-31 | RVshttps://t.co/iX0cdEPgZh

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 7, 2023

---

Well, look at that. So when it's a clear binary choice, there are other potential candidates performing as well as, and in some cases, better than Trump! I think somebody just suggested that in a previous post - in response to your suggestion that Trump is our best chance of winning.

Wonder who that was....

---

Let's put some perspective alongside the hyperbole:
1). ONE candidate is in this poll is doing outside the standard deviation better vs Biden than Trump. The rest are effectively tied (without parsing overall support numbers, which would further mitigate things).
2). That may or may not last. If you remember, there was a time when another candidate on that list was running substantially better vs Biden than than Trump. Now, that guy isn't. (For several reasons.). The new one has yet to run the gauntlet the other one endured. She may make it. She may not. Making the leap from a statewide to a national race is VERY hard. (I think I've said that a few times. And events have (not surprisingly) proven that out..)
3). this is only one poll, several points worse for Trump and better for RDS than the one I posted most recently. How do we know which is the outlier and which is the mean? We watch and we wait. So don't get out over your skis. It's still very early

---

Poo pooing a poll that doesn't agree with your narrative? I am shocked, shocked I tell you!

With respect to point 1, "effectively tied" still destroys the narrative that Trump is the best candidate to win the next election, and supports my point that when it's a binary choice, there are candidate that are as good as, if not better than, Trump.

As I've been telling you for more than a year...

Redbrickbear said:

---

How has God not striken down this absolutely useless human being https://t.co/BBjkhX3p15

— Bushwhacker (@anglotradboy) September 7, 2023

---

Darth Cheney has spoken.

What a POS.

It’s amazing how committed to “anything but reform” they are. Belligerently ossified. https://t.co/QwNgfiWWpm

— Edward Badgette (@acrimonyand) September 8, 2023

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

interesting.......

🇺🇲 2024 GE POLL: CNN/SSRS

Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%

DeSantis 47% (=)
Biden 47%

Haley 49% (+6)
Biden 43%

Pence 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Scott 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Biden 46% (+1)
Ramaswamy 45%

Christie 44% (+2)
Biden 42%

August 25-31 | RVshttps://t.co/iX0cdEPgZh

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 7, 2023

---

Well, look at that. So when it's a clear binary choice, there are other potential candidates performing as well as, and in some cases, better than Trump! I think somebody just suggested that in a previous post - in response to your suggestion that Trump is our best chance of winning.

Wonder who that was....

---

Let's put some perspective alongside the hyperbole:
1). ONE candidate is in this poll is doing outside the standard deviation better vs Biden than Trump. The rest are effectively tied (without parsing overall support numbers, which would further mitigate things).
2). That may or may not last. If you remember, there was a time when another candidate on that list was running substantially better vs Biden than than Trump. Now, that guy isn't. (For several reasons.). The new one has yet to run the gauntlet the other one endured. She may make it. She may not. Making the leap from a statewide to a national race is VERY hard. (I think I've said that a few times. And events have (not surprisingly) proven that out..)
3). this is only one poll, several points worse for Trump and better for RDS than the one I posted most recently. How do we know which is the outlier and which is the mean? We watch and we wait. So don't get out over your skis. It's still very early

---

Poo pooing a poll that doesn't agree with your narrative? I am shocked, shocked I tell you!

With respect to point 1, "effectively tied" still destroys the narrative that Trump is the best candidate to win the next election, and supports my point that when it's a binary choice, there are candidate that are as good as, if not better than, Trump.

As I've been telling you for more than a year...

---

LOL you draw the wrong conclusion from the same historical data. I was telling you last Nov-Dec when RDS had the same kind of polling advantage that Nikki has now to watch & wait.....that RDS had not yet been exposed a national audience, had not yet had to step up and run a national campaign, that once he hit the glare of lights on stage he might rise to the occasion and look like a giant, or he might look small and pale. Turns out, he has under-performed spectacularly. He has disappointed me. I LIKE Ron DeSantis. I expected (and hoped) he would do much, much better.

Let's watch & wait on Nikki. I would assess her, relative to RDS, to be more of a known quantity and more experienced on a national stage. I wouldn't expect her to "underperform" to the degree RDS has, but neighter do I expect her to "catch fire" and be a threat. She is not a grassroot darling. Not from that wing of the party. She does not have the "he's not my guy, but I like him" factor going for her like RDS did. Much less chance falling Trump support goes to her. If anything, her rise will tend to cause soft Trump supporters to cling a little tighter.

What she does have going for her is this: RDS had the problem of being in Trump's lane.....a former Freedom Caucus guy, stern of countenance, combative, anti-establishment particularly liberal establishments like teachers unions, corporate wokies, etc.... That was supposed to seduce Trumpers away from Trump. Didn't happen. And he is not really a fit for the Bushie faction of the party, which is a smaller minority of people but still meaningful. Nikki has the advantage of being a natural fit for the Bushie faction, for all the people who do NOT consider themselves comfortable with Trumpworld. Look at FL5630....likes parts of RDS but not the whole ant-woke shebang. Nikki will be much more to his liking. So she may well rise from here and consolidate all the non-Trump voters, which is a slightly (single digit-ish) bigger number than RDS ever got to.

But let's watch and wait. She is VERY talented. Lets see if she can execute. I don't see her as a risk to Trump, but she'd be a splendid VP candidate. She'd help unify the party, perhaps in ways even more than RDS could. And then there's this angle.....the VP candidate for Trump has to fit this template: "Well, I hate that SOB with a purple passion, but I kinda like her and I only have to wait 4 years for her to step and be the first woman POTUS, the daughter of immigrants, no less. Yeah, that's pretty cool. I can hold my nose and pull the lever for that."

OSO will never admit it, but he's thinking it...... And we don't need but a few tens of thousands of neverTrumpers in 3-4 states to think that way and capitulate to win it.

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

interesting.......

🇺🇲 2024 GE POLL: CNN/SSRS

Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%

DeSantis 47% (=)
Biden 47%

Haley 49% (+6)
Biden 43%

Pence 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Scott 46% (+2)
Biden 44%

Biden 46% (+1)
Ramaswamy 45%

Christie 44% (+2)
Biden 42%

August 25-31 | RVshttps://t.co/iX0cdEPgZh

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 7, 2023

---

Well, look at that. So when it's a clear binary choice, there are other potential candidates performing as well as, and in some cases, better than Trump! I think somebody just suggested that in a previous post - in response to your suggestion that Trump is our best chance of winning.

Wonder who that was....

---

Let's put some perspective alongside the hyperbole:
1). ONE candidate is in this poll is doing outside the standard deviation better vs Biden than Trump. The rest are effectively tied (without parsing overall support numbers, which would further mitigate things).
2). That may or may not last. If you remember, there was a time when another candidate on that list was running substantially better vs Biden than than Trump. Now, that guy isn't. (For several reasons.). The new one has yet to run the gauntlet the other one endured. She may make it. She may not. Making the leap from a statewide to a national race is VERY hard. (I think I've said that a few times. And events have (not surprisingly) proven that out..)
3). this is only one poll, several points worse for Trump and better for RDS than the one I posted most recently. How do we know which is the outlier and which is the mean? We watch and we wait. So don't get out over your skis. It's still very early

---

Poo pooing a poll that doesn't agree with your narrative? I am shocked, shocked I tell you!

With respect to point 1, "effectively tied" still destroys the narrative that Trump is the best candidate to win the next election, and supports my point that when it's a binary choice, there are candidate that are as good as, if not better than, Trump.

As I've been telling you for more than a year...

---

LOL you draw the wrong conclusion from the same historical data. I was telling you last Nov-Dec when RDS had the same kind of polling advantage that Nikki has now to watch & wait.....that RDS had not yet been exposed a national audience, had not yet had to step up and run a national campaign, that once he hit the glare of lights on stage he might rise to the occasion and look like a giant, or he might look small and pale. Turns out, he has under-performed spectacularly. He has disappointed me. I LIKE Ron DeSantis. I expected (and hoped) he would do much, much better.

Let's watch & wait on Nikki. I would assess her, relative to RDS, to be more of a known quantity and more experienced on a national stage. I wouldn't expect her to "underperform" to the degree RDS has, but neighter do I expect her to "catch fire" and be a threat. She is not a grassroot darling. Not from that wing of the party. She does not have the "he's not my guy, but I like him" factor going for her like RDS did. Much less chance falling Trump support goes to her. If anything, her rise will tend to cause soft Trump supporters to cling a little tighter.

What she does have going for her is this: RDS had the problem of being in Trump's lane.....a former Freedom Caucus guy, stern of countenance, combative, anti-establishment particularly liberal establishments like teachers unions, corporate wokies, etc.... That was supposed to seduce Trumpers away from Trump. Didn't happen. And he is not really a fit for the Bushie faction of the party, which is a smaller minority of people but still meaningful. Nikki has the advantage of being a natural fit for the Bushie faction, for all the people who do NOT consider themselves comfortable with Trumpworld. Look at FL5630....likes parts of RDS but not the whole ant-woke shebang. Nikki will be much more to his liking. So she may well rise from here and consolidate all the non-Trump voters, which is a slightly (single digit-ish) bigger number than RDS ever got to.

But let's watch and wait. She is VERY talented. Lets see if she can execute. I don't see her as a risk to Trump, but she'd be a splendid VP candidate. She'd help unify the party, perhaps in ways even more than RDS could. And then there's this angle.....the VP candidate for Trump has to fit this template: "Well, I hate that SOB with a purple passion, but I kinda like her and I only have to wait 4 years for her to step and be the first woman POTUS, the daughter of immigrants, no less. Yeah, that's pretty cool. I can hold my nose and pull the lever for that."

OSO will never admit it, but he's thinking it...... And we don't need but a few tens of thousands of neverTrumpers in 3-4 states to think that way and capitulate to win it.

---

For all of your disappointment with RDS, the poll you quoted demonstrates that he would perform about the same as Trump if the election were today. And therein lies my point. When it's a binary choice, the idea that Trump is the best candidate to beat Biden may be not be correct. Other candidates with less baggage might perform as well, or better - as this poll demonstrates. Could that change in time? Of course. Trump could become less popular, especially among independents and Democrats who are unhappy with Biden. He could become more popular, I suppose, though I find that far less likely given the trials that are about to start, and his overall pettiness.

As for Haley the VP candidate, it will never happen, IMO. Your analysis doesn't factor the albatross that Trump is to those around him. It doesn't factor the Trump taint. His former cabinet are now pretty much pariahs. I don't think Haley allows herself to be tainted by Trump's ridiculousness and buffoonery. I also don't think Trump's ego can take the disloyalty of running against him.

What you're hoping for will never happen, IMO.

Classic

Pretty much everyone knows this to be true. Trump claimed the Iowa caucus was stolen after he lost to Cruz. He claimed the Emmys were rigged when Apprentice lost. He claimed he really won the popular vote in 2016. He said he won Nevada both times, a state he lost twice. In fact,… https://t.co/swG3MLQd22

— AG (@AGHamilton29) September 8, 2023

🚨BREAKING: @SpeakerPelosi just told volunteers at a breakfast in San Francisco that she will run for another term in Congress.

— Dustin Gardiner (@dustingardiner) September 8, 2023