2024

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4th and Inches
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In reply to Cobretti • 1:26p, 9/8/23
Cobretti said:
sheeple will keep voting for her.. morons
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whiterock
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5:41p, 9/8/23
If he runs 3rd party, Dems r toast

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5:52p, 9/8/23
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1:20p, 9/10/23
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3:03p, 9/13/23
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10:55a, 9/14/23
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In reply to STxBear81 • 11:20a, 9/14/23
STxBear81 said:
would trump go Independent without Republican nomination?
In a heartbeat...

He will threaten it first to get what he want.
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Cobretti
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6:38p, 9/14/23
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4:58a, 9/15/23
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11:40a, 9/15/23
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 11:49a, 9/15/23
4th and Inches said:
Cobretti said:
sheeple will keep voting for her.. morons
From what I see in movies and TV, the undead are very popular these days.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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whiterock
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4:47p, 9/15/23
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In reply to whiterock • 8:50a, 9/16/23
whiterock said:
Does he break it down by State. These are polls I am interested in. National means squat. This is where the election will be won and lost. Thanks, keep the targeted stuff coming!
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Jacques Strap
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10:01a, 9/16/23

Quote:
I'm very grateful that alert and fast-acting protectors from Gavin de Becker and Associates (GDBA) spotted and detained an armed man who attempted to approach me at my Hispanic Heritage speech at the Wilshire Ebell Theatre in Los Angeles tonight. The man, wearing two shoulder holsters with loaded pistols and spare ammunition magazines was carrying a U.S. Marshal badge on a lanyard and beltclip federal ID. He identified himself as a member of my security detail. Armed GDBA team members moved quickly to isolate and detain the man until LAPD arrived to make the arrest. I'm also grateful to LAPD for its rapid response.
SEP 15

JULY 28
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whiterock
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10:35a, 9/16/23
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11:39p, 9/17/23
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In reply to whiterock • 6:18a, 9/18/23
whiterock said:
Interesting numbers.

I am eager to see how the actual Primaries play out.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to whiterock • 6:59a, 9/18/23
whiterock said:
that is interesting..

That poll Looks alot like the vote numbers when people went to bed on election night
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 7:11a, 9/18/23
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
Interesting numbers.

I am eager to see how the actual Primaries play out.
so far, the dynamics I've mentioned are playing out. Trump is unpopular, but holding ground or better, while Biden is also unpopular and sliding. The reasons are easy to understand - Biden is the incumbent amongst broad discontent over the economy, the border, political corruption, etc..... That dynamic will definitely continue, and should (all things equal) open up a sustained, modest lead for Trump. Stuff is going sideways for Democrats and could easily get out of hand for them.

Within that, there are all kinds of unpredictables: the Trump prosecutions, the looming Biden impeachment (or more correctly, the revelations flowing from it), Biden's health, high likelihood of consequential third party candidates, etc..... Again, most of those will negatively affect Biden/Democrats, while the one issue posing risk to Trump (prosecutions) has ironically helped him as much as hurt him....so far. Will that continue to be so? one would think not, but then, one would think the prosecutions would have already sunk him, so it's hard to assess the impact of a conviction. Counting on one or more to drive a stake thru the heart of his political career is wishful thinking, at this point.....

I can't see a scenario I'd be willing to bet on where Trump is NOT the nominee.

Biden is actually at greater risk of not making the Dem ticket, because of his polling. They can put up with everything else about him, as long as he appears to be able to beat Trump. The problem for them is, as bad as the scenarios with him on the ticket are starting to look, the alternative scenarios are all worse unless MichelleO decides to run. I'm surprised there isn't more buzz surrounding her now, which tends to support the narrative that she is firm about not wanting to run. But the worse Biden gets, the more powerful will be the urge to get her in the race. Likeability and buzz about "first woman POTUS" are about all Dems have to run on. Abortion is a micro issue and will not be able to salvage the 2024 general election like it did the 2022 mid-terms

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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 7:16a, 9/18/23
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
Interesting numbers.

I am eager to see how the actual Primaries play out.
so far, the dynamics I've mentioned are playing out. Trump is unpopular, but holding ground or better, while Biden is also unpopular and sliding. The reasons are easy to understand - Biden is the incumbent amongst broad discontent over the economy, the border, political corruption, etc..... That dynamic will definitely continue, and should (all things equal) open up a sustained, modest lead for Trump. Stuff is going sideways for Democrats and could easily get out of hand for them.

Within that, there are all kinds of unpredictables: the Trump prosecutions, the looming Biden impeachment (or more correctly, the revelations flowing from it), Biden's health, high likelihood of consequential third party candidates, etc..... Again, most of those will negatively affect Biden/Democrats, while the one issue posing risk to Trump (prosecutions) has ironically helped him as much as hurt him....so far. Will that continue to be so? one would think not, but then, one would think the prosecutions would have already sunk him, so it's hard to assess the impact of a conviction. Counting on one or more to drive a stake thru the heart of his political career is wishful thinking, at this point.....

I can't see a scenario I'd be willing to bet on where Trump is NOT the nominee.

Biden is actually at greater risk of not making the Dem ticket, because of his polling. They can put up with everything else about him, as long as he appears to be able to beat Trump. The problem for them is, as bad as the scenarios with him on the ticket are starting to look, the alternative scenarios are all worse unless MichelleO decides to run. I'm surprised there isn't more buzz surrounding her now, which tends to support the narrative that she is firm about not wanting to run. But the worse Biden gets, the more powerful will be the urge to get her in the race. Likeability and buzz about "first woman POTUS" are about all Dems have to run on. Abortion is a micro issue and will not be able to salvage the 2024 general election like it did the 2022 mid-terms

I mean actual votes versus polls. I work alot with "big data", so call me a skeptic. I am comfortable with what I see, it is what I am not seeing that bothers me with data and polls. Are we be herded in a certain direction by "psuedo-AI" and machine learning. What you don't show is just as important as what you show. These polls show a Trump already having the nomination wrapped up. Let's see if the votes actually follow.
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Mothra
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In reply to whiterock • 7:38a, 9/18/23
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
Interesting numbers.

I am eager to see how the actual Primaries play out.
so far, the dynamics I've mentioned are playing out. Trump is unpopular, but holding ground or better, while Biden is also unpopular and sliding. The reasons are easy to understand - Biden is the incumbent amongst broad discontent over the economy, the border, political corruption, etc..... That dynamic will definitely continue, and should (all things equal) open up a sustained, modest lead for Trump. Stuff is going sideways for Democrats and could easily get out of hand for them.

Within that, there are all kinds of unpredictables: the Trump prosecutions, the looming Biden impeachment (or more correctly, the revelations flowing from it), Biden's health, high likelihood of consequential third party candidates, etc..... Again, most of those will negatively affect Biden/Democrats, while the one issue posing risk to Trump (prosecutions) has ironically helped him as much as hurt him....so far. Will that continue to be so? one would think not, but then, one would think the prosecutions would have already sunk him, so it's hard to assess the impact of a conviction. Counting on one or more to drive a stake thru the heart of his political career is wishful thinking, at this point.....

I can't see a scenario I'd be willing to bet on where Trump is NOT the nominee.

Biden is actually at greater risk of not making the Dem ticket, because of his polling. They can put up with everything else about him, as long as he appears to be able to beat Trump. The problem for them is, as bad as the scenarios with him on the ticket are starting to look, the alternative scenarios are all worse unless MichelleO decides to run. I'm surprised there isn't more buzz surrounding her now, which tends to support the narrative that she is firm about not wanting to run. But the worse Biden gets, the more powerful will be the urge to get her in the race. Likeability and buzz about "first woman POTUS" are about all Dems have to run on. Abortion is a micro issue and will not be able to salvage the 2024 general election like it did the 2022 mid-terms

Well, this is certainly the conservative, wishful thinking take. Let's see if it holds true.

One question: Do any polls show what a potential matchup between Trump and someone other than Biden would look like? Say Newsom v Trump?

I think there is a very real possibility the Dems end up with another nominee, which I think could help their numbers immensely, depending on the candidate of course.
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boognish_bear
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9:49a, 9/18/23
Rosh Hoshana message

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Osodecentx
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In reply to boognish_bear • 9:54a, 9/18/23
boognish_bear said:
Rosh Hoshana message



Don't you just hate "Natzis"?
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to Mothra • 9:57a, 9/18/23
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
Interesting numbers.

I am eager to see how the actual Primaries play out.
so far, the dynamics I've mentioned are playing out. Trump is unpopular, but holding ground or better, while Biden is also unpopular and sliding. The reasons are easy to understand - Biden is the incumbent amongst broad discontent over the economy, the border, political corruption, etc..... That dynamic will definitely continue, and should (all things equal) open up a sustained, modest lead for Trump. Stuff is going sideways for Democrats and could easily get out of hand for them.

Within that, there are all kinds of unpredictables: the Trump prosecutions, the looming Biden impeachment (or more correctly, the revelations flowing from it), Biden's health, high likelihood of consequential third party candidates, etc..... Again, most of those will negatively affect Biden/Democrats, while the one issue posing risk to Trump (prosecutions) has ironically helped him as much as hurt him....so far. Will that continue to be so? one would think not, but then, one would think the prosecutions would have already sunk him, so it's hard to assess the impact of a conviction. Counting on one or more to drive a stake thru the heart of his political career is wishful thinking, at this point.....

I can't see a scenario I'd be willing to bet on where Trump is NOT the nominee.

Biden is actually at greater risk of not making the Dem ticket, because of his polling. They can put up with everything else about him, as long as he appears to be able to beat Trump. The problem for them is, as bad as the scenarios with him on the ticket are starting to look, the alternative scenarios are all worse unless MichelleO decides to run. I'm surprised there isn't more buzz surrounding her now, which tends to support the narrative that she is firm about not wanting to run. But the worse Biden gets, the more powerful will be the urge to get her in the race. Likeability and buzz about "first woman POTUS" are about all Dems have to run on. Abortion is a micro issue and will not be able to salvage the 2024 general election like it did the 2022 mid-terms

Well, this is certainly the conservative, wishful thinking take. Let's see if it holds true.

One question: Do any polls show what a potential matchup between Trump and someone other than Biden would look like? Say Newsom v Trump?

I think there is a very real possibility the Dems end up with another nominee, which I think could help their numbers immensely, depending on the candidate of course.
Under Newsom's "leadership" , California faces the following:

* $32 billion budget shortfall
* 30 percent of all homeless in the U.S. live in California
* Unfettered flow of illegal aliens
* State with the second highest taxes in the country
* Ranks the highest by far in the country of people fleeing to another state

Do Democrats really want to turn the country into California? I am not convinced. Other than him being a Progressive Liberal that thrives on spending the taxpayers' money, what does Newsom bring to the table?
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Osodecentx • 9:59a, 9/18/23
Osodecentx said:
boognish_bear said:
Rosh Hoshana message



Don't you just hate "Natzis"?
I love the Trump portrait that looks like Robert Redford from the Candidate...
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Mothra
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In reply to boognish_bear • 11:11a, 9/18/23
boognish_bear said:
Rosh Hoshana message



Well that message will undoubtedly win them over…
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Mothra
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In reply to RD2WINAGNBEAR86 • 11:12a, 9/18/23
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
Interesting numbers.

I am eager to see how the actual Primaries play out.
so far, the dynamics I've mentioned are playing out. Trump is unpopular, but holding ground or better, while Biden is also unpopular and sliding. The reasons are easy to understand - Biden is the incumbent amongst broad discontent over the economy, the border, political corruption, etc..... That dynamic will definitely continue, and should (all things equal) open up a sustained, modest lead for Trump. Stuff is going sideways for Democrats and could easily get out of hand for them.

Within that, there are all kinds of unpredictables: the Trump prosecutions, the looming Biden impeachment (or more correctly, the revelations flowing from it), Biden's health, high likelihood of consequential third party candidates, etc..... Again, most of those will negatively affect Biden/Democrats, while the one issue posing risk to Trump (prosecutions) has ironically helped him as much as hurt him....so far. Will that continue to be so? one would think not, but then, one would think the prosecutions would have already sunk him, so it's hard to assess the impact of a conviction. Counting on one or more to drive a stake thru the heart of his political career is wishful thinking, at this point.....

I can't see a scenario I'd be willing to bet on where Trump is NOT the nominee.

Biden is actually at greater risk of not making the Dem ticket, because of his polling. They can put up with everything else about him, as long as he appears to be able to beat Trump. The problem for them is, as bad as the scenarios with him on the ticket are starting to look, the alternative scenarios are all worse unless MichelleO decides to run. I'm surprised there isn't more buzz surrounding her now, which tends to support the narrative that she is firm about not wanting to run. But the worse Biden gets, the more powerful will be the urge to get her in the race. Likeability and buzz about "first woman POTUS" are about all Dems have to run on. Abortion is a micro issue and will not be able to salvage the 2024 general election like it did the 2022 mid-terms

Well, this is certainly the conservative, wishful thinking take. Let's see if it holds true.

One question: Do any polls show what a potential matchup between Trump and someone other than Biden would look like? Say Newsom v Trump?

I think there is a very real possibility the Dems end up with another nominee, which I think could help their numbers immensely, depending on the candidate of course.
Under Newsom's "leadership" , California faces the following:

* $32 billion budget shortfall
* 30 percent of all homeless in the U.S. live in California
* Unfettered flow of illegal aliens
* State with the second highest taxes in the country
* Ranks the highest by far in the country of people fleeing to another state

Do Democrats really want to turn the country into California? I am not convinced. Other than him being a Progressive Liberal that thrives on spending the taxpayers' money, what does Newsom bring to the table?


Newsom is absolutely terrible but he will win the suburban mom vote.
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boognish_bear
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4:29p, 9/18/23
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