2024

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LIB,MR BEARS
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boognish_bear said:



It is a proven path to the VP's office.
Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:




Full throated? Strange wording...
whiterock
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https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2023/09/18/shocking-percentage-of-voter-would-back-third-party-candidate-in-biden-trump-rematch-n2163956
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2023/09/18/shocking-percentage-of-voter-would-back-third-party-candidate-in-biden-trump-rematch-n2163956


I would, give me a decent option!
Osodecentx
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2023/09/18/shocking-percentage-of-voter-would-back-third-party-candidate-in-biden-trump-rematch-n2163956


I would, give me a decent option!


Me too
4th and Inches
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2023/09/18/shocking-percentage-of-voter-would-back-third-party-candidate-in-biden-trump-rematch-n2163956


I would, give me a decent option!
not necessarily but agree in principle
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FLBear5630
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4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2023/09/18/shocking-percentage-of-voter-would-back-third-party-candidate-in-biden-trump-rematch-n2163956


I would, give me a decent option!
not necessarily but agree in principle


Going to be hard time of it is Biden/ Trump again. Both will be disasters in different ways ..

I am sick of taking the least of two poisons. Would really like to be for someone again rather than constantly minimizing damage.
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2023/09/18/shocking-percentage-of-voter-would-back-third-party-candidate-in-biden-trump-rematch-n2163956


I would, give me a decent option!
not necessarily but agree in principle


Going to be hard time of it is Biden/ Trump again. Both will be disasters in different ways ..

I am sick of taking the least of two poisons. Would really like to be for someone again rather than constantly minimizing damage.
Ok. Now hold those thoughts and look at the polling numbers.

Forget about low "ceilings." Both men are highly unpopular. Calculate "floors."
What is Biden's "floor?"
What is Trump's "floor?"
With two highly unpopular candidaets on the ballot, most independents will not vote, or vote 3rd party.
The guy with the softest floor loses.
The guy with the harder floor wins.

In current polling, Trump's number is pretty close to his floor........

Reasonable people can run numbers like that and end up in different places, but that's what's shaping up to be the proper construction for forecasting.
whiterock
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Mothra said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:


Interesting numbers.

I am eager to see how the actual Primaries play out.
so far, the dynamics I've mentioned are playing out. Trump is unpopular, but holding ground or better, while Biden is also unpopular and sliding. The reasons are easy to understand - Biden is the incumbent amongst broad discontent over the economy, the border, political corruption, etc..... That dynamic will definitely continue, and should (all things equal) open up a sustained, modest lead for Trump. Stuff is going sideways for Democrats and could easily get out of hand for them.

Within that, there are all kinds of unpredictables: the Trump prosecutions, the looming Biden impeachment (or more correctly, the revelations flowing from it), Biden's health, high likelihood of consequential third party candidates, etc..... Again, most of those will negatively affect Biden/Democrats, while the one issue posing risk to Trump (prosecutions) has ironically helped him as much as hurt him....so far. Will that continue to be so? one would think not, but then, one would think the prosecutions would have already sunk him, so it's hard to assess the impact of a conviction. Counting on one or more to drive a stake thru the heart of his political career is wishful thinking, at this point.....

I can't see a scenario I'd be willing to bet on where Trump is NOT the nominee.

Biden is actually at greater risk of not making the Dem ticket, because of his polling. They can put up with everything else about him, as long as he appears to be able to beat Trump. The problem for them is, as bad as the scenarios with him on the ticket are starting to look, the alternative scenarios are all worse unless MichelleO decides to run. I'm surprised there isn't more buzz surrounding her now, which tends to support the narrative that she is firm about not wanting to run. But the worse Biden gets, the more powerful will be the urge to get her in the race. Likeability and buzz about "first woman POTUS" are about all Dems have to run on. Abortion is a micro issue and will not be able to salvage the 2024 general election like it did the 2022 mid-terms


Well, this is certainly the conservative, wishful thinking take. Let's see if it holds true.

One question: Do any polls show what a potential matchup between Trump and someone other than Biden would look like? Say Newsom v Trump?

I think there is a very real possibility the Dems end up with another nominee, which I think could help their numbers immensely, depending on the candidate of course.
Every poll I have seen (mostly re Harris) shows other Dem candidates running worse than Biden.

Dems are starting to run out alternatives, Newsom being the first one, to test the market to see if any of them show potential to run better than Biden.....a few weeks of PR....then poll. I don't see anyone other than MichellO who is likely to do any better than Biden, but they are wise to float the trial balloons.

And if that fails to show a viable alternative, they will mount BIden up like El Cid and follow him into battle.
Mothra
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A google search revealed a few polls of Newsom v. Trump and had Newsom ahead, but it appears to me they're smaller polls and not as reputable.

I suspect a Newsom would poll much better against Trump than Biden.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2023/09/18/shocking-percentage-of-voter-would-back-third-party-candidate-in-biden-trump-rematch-n2163956


I would, give me a decent option!
not necessarily but agree in principle


Going to be hard time of it is Biden/ Trump again. Both will be disasters in different ways ..

I am sick of taking the least of two poisons. Would really like to be for someone again rather than constantly minimizing damage.
Ok. Now hold those thoughts and look at the polling numbers.

Forget about low "ceilings." Both men are highly unpopular. Calculate "floors."
What is Biden's "floor?"
What is Trump's "floor?"
With two highly unpopular candidaets on the ballot, most independents will not vote, or vote 3rd party.
The guy with the softest floor loses.
The guy with the harder floor wins.

In current polling, Trump's number is pretty close to his floor........

Reasonable people can run numbers like that and end up in different places, but that's what's shaping up to be the proper construction for forecasting.

I think Trump wins based on the way things are going right now.

I think he will have better policies but will be just as destructive to the Nation. He has no filter, too reactive and takes things too personal for the position of President. Plus, nothing will get done as the Left will be more motivated to stop him and the Left DO move in lockstep. The GOP is a disaster...
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Whiskey Pete
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Mothra said:

A google search revealed a few polls of Newsom v. Trump and had Newsom ahead, but it appears to me they're smaller polls and not as reputable.

I suspect a Newsom would poll much better against Trump than Biden.
I think he'd would poll better than Trump. Makes me wonder if independents would vote for him given the horrific mess that is California.

If you really want to see the big show, Maching/RFK Jr should run as a third party
Mothra
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boognish_bear said:


Hopefully this turns away some of the sycophants.
KaiBear
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:


Interesting numbers.

I am eager to see how the actual Primaries play out.
so far, the dynamics I've mentioned are playing out. Trump is unpopular, but holding ground or better, while Biden is also unpopular and sliding. The reasons are easy to understand - Biden is the incumbent amongst broad discontent over the economy, the border, political corruption, etc..... That dynamic will definitely continue, and should (all things equal) open up a sustained, modest lead for Trump. Stuff is going sideways for Democrats and could easily get out of hand for them.

Within that, there are all kinds of unpredictables: the Trump prosecutions, the looming Biden impeachment (or more correctly, the revelations flowing from it), Biden's health, high likelihood of consequential third party candidates, etc..... Again, most of those will negatively affect Biden/Democrats, while the one issue posing risk to Trump (prosecutions) has ironically helped him as much as hurt him....so far. Will that continue to be so? one would think not, but then, one would think the prosecutions would have already sunk him, so it's hard to assess the impact of a conviction. Counting on one or more to drive a stake thru the heart of his political career is wishful thinking, at this point.....

I can't see a scenario I'd be willing to bet on where Trump is NOT the nominee.

Biden is actually at greater risk of not making the Dem ticket, because of his polling. They can put up with everything else about him, as long as he appears to be able to beat Trump. The problem for them is, as bad as the scenarios with him on the ticket are starting to look, the alternative scenarios are all worse unless MichelleO decides to run. I'm surprised there isn't more buzz surrounding her now, which tends to support the narrative that she is firm about not wanting to run. But the worse Biden gets, the more powerful will be the urge to get her in the race. Likeability and buzz about "first woman POTUS" are about all Dems have to run on. Abortion is a micro issue and will not be able to salvage the 2024 general election like it did the 2022 mid-terms


Well, this is certainly the conservative, wishful thinking take. Let's see if it holds true.

One question: Do any polls show what a potential matchup between Trump and someone other than Biden would look like? Say Newsom v Trump?

I think there is a very real possibility the Dems end up with another nominee, which I think could help their numbers immensely, depending on the candidate of course.
Under Newsom's "leadership" , California faces the following:

* $32 billion budget shortfall
* 30 percent of all homeless in the U.S. live in California
* Unfettered flow of illegal aliens
* State with the second highest taxes in the country
* Ranks the highest by far in the country of people fleeing to another state

Do Democrats really want to turn the country into California? I am not convinced. Other than him being a Progressive Liberal that thrives on spending the taxpayers' money, what does Newsom bring to the table?

Women will vote for Newsom by the millions.

California realities be damned.
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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Mothra said:

boognish_bear said:


Hopefully this turns away some of the sycophants.
Actually, Trump is spot on on the issue of abortion. His Republican challengers had better find some middle ground on abortion or it will be over for them.

A six week abortion ban is unrealistic. Sometimes it is six weeks or shortly thereafter before a woman even knows she's pregnant. I absolutely hate abortion, but I think up to 15 weeks is reasonable.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
4th and Inches
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boognish_bear said:


the workers like Trump.. the mob bosses, i mean union leaders dont
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Mothra
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Mothra said:

boognish_bear said:


Hopefully this turns away some of the sycophants.
Actually, Trump is spot on on the issue of abortion. His Republican challengers had better find some middle ground on abortion or it will be over for them.

A six week abortion ban is unrealistic. Sometimes it is six weeks or shortly thereafter before a woman even knows she's pregnant. I absolutely hate abortion, but I think up to 15 weeks is reasonable.
While we clearly disagree that he's spot on (and in either regard, why isn't this a state's right issue?), the real issue is saying what he said, which as pointed out will alienate millions of Christian voters. It was a dumb thing for him to say, but I suppose he feels he can do whatever he wants and his sycophants will still vote for him in the primaries.

And he may be right.
Redbrickbear
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boognish_bear said:




Did he forget the millionaires and billionaires in the Democratic Party that are also enriched by an exploitation economy?

He probably doesn't have the guts to speak out against mass migrant either….the number 1 cause of watering down working class wages and creating wage stagnation that benefits the ownership class.

You can't get better wages for your workers when the political class is letting in 200,000 low wage workers cross the border every single month.

The old Labor leaders understood this
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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Mothra said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Mothra said:

boognish_bear said:


Hopefully this turns away some of the sycophants.
Actually, Trump is spot on on the issue of abortion. His Republican challengers had better find some middle ground on abortion or it will be over for them.

A six week abortion ban is unrealistic. Sometimes it is six weeks or shortly thereafter before a woman even knows she's pregnant. I absolutely hate abortion, but I think up to 15 weeks is reasonable.
While we clearly disagree that he's spot on (and in either regard, why isn't this a state's right issue?), the real issue is saying what he said, which as pointed out will alienate millions of Christian voters. It was a dumb thing for him to say, but I suppose he feels he can do whatever he wants and his sycophants will still vote for him in the primaries.

And he may be right.
I agree 100 percent this should be a state issue, as per the most recent Supreme Court ruling. Don't want either party to turn abortion into a national mandate. Let the states decide. If the law in your state says it is illegal to kill your unborn child, travel to another state. And when you are done, please stay there and don't come back.

Democrats want to be able and celebrate killing their unborn children up to full term. Most Republican politicians support the six week ban. Both positions are too extreme.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
whiterock
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Mothra said:

boognish_bear said:


Hopefully this turns away some of the sycophants.
He's already pivoting his messaging to the general election.....the repositioning to be more centrist. It's unusual to do so before the primaries are over, but then, there's a lot that's unusual about this cycle.
Mothra
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whiterock said:

Mothra said:

boognish_bear said:


Hopefully this turns away some of the sycophants.
He's already pivoting his messaging to the general election.....the repositioning to be more centrist. It's unusual to do so before the primaries are over, but then, there's a lot that's unusual about this cycle.


Regardless of his reasons, his comments have the potential to do a lot of damage to his religious base, especially when there are candidates who are much better in the issue of abortion.

But then again, as with Trump on a lot of issues, perhaps none of his sycophants care. Obvious they don't have a problem with the fact he is a complete and total scumbag.
whiterock
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Mothra said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

boognish_bear said:


Hopefully this turns away some of the sycophants.
He's already pivoting his messaging to the general election.....the repositioning to be more centrist. It's unusual to do so before the primaries are over, but then, there's a lot that's unusual about this cycle.


Regardless of his reasons, his comments have the potential to do a lot of damage to his religious base, especially when there are candidates who are much better in the issue of abortion.

But then again, as with Trump on a lot of issues, perhaps none of his sycophants care. Obvious they don't have a problem with the fact he is a complete and total scumbag.
that dynamic is real. he does, however, have the advantage of being the guy who delivered the big win = SCOTUS justice appointments that overturned Roe. That's a pretty good shield against incoming fire.

Let's see how he messages it going forward, but he has a chance here to take a statesmanlike position on the issue. Abortion is a highly inflammatory topic, which is the worst possible kind of topic to deal with at the federal level. Keep it a state issue and let the federal system do its magic as the founders intended. Everybody has something they can point to for solace. Everybody has a channel to argue and fight to win hearts & minds going forward. And over time, different state approaches will serve as models for others to emulate/avoid.

(notice how I used the suffix "-like" to soften the association of the word "statesman" to Trump.... it's the issue, not the man I'm talking about.)
Mothra
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whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

boognish_bear said:


Hopefully this turns away some of the sycophants.
He's already pivoting his messaging to the general election.....the repositioning to be more centrist. It's unusual to do so before the primaries are over, but then, there's a lot that's unusual about this cycle.


Regardless of his reasons, his comments have the potential to do a lot of damage to his religious base, especially when there are candidates who are much better in the issue of abortion.

But then again, as with Trump on a lot of issues, perhaps none of his sycophants care. Obvious they don't have a problem with the fact he is a complete and total scumbag.
that dynamic is real. he does, however, have the advantage of being the guy who delivered the big win = SCOTUS justice appointments that overturned Roe. That's a pretty good shield against incoming fire.

Let's see how he messages it going forward, but he has a chance here to take a statesmanlike position on the issue. Abortion is a highly inflammatory topic, which is the worst possible kind of topic to deal with at the federal level. Keep it a state issue and let the federal system do its magic as the founders intended. Everybody has something they can point to for solace. Everybody has a channel to argue and fight to win hearts & minds going forward. And over time, different state approaches will serve as models for others to emulate/avoid.

(notice how I used the suffix "-like" to soften the association of the word "statesman" to Trump.... it's the issue, not the man I'm talking about.)
Problem is, he is criticizing a state for what should be a purely state issue. That is concerning, if you are a conservative.
Doc Holliday
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This should be illegal considering voter rolls are EXTREMELY inaccurate.

Democrats want to win and they'll stop at nothing. All they care about is laundering tax dollars, winning for them = huge pay day.

KaiBear
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4th and Inches said:

boognish_bear said:


the workers like Trump..
LOL



4th and Inches
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KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:

boognish_bear said:


the workers like Trump..
LOL


talk to middle class blue collar workers more..
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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whiterock
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whiterock
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2023/09/18/shocking-percentage-of-voter-would-back-third-party-candidate-in-biden-trump-rematch-n2163956


I would, give me a decent option!
not necessarily but agree in principle


Going to be hard time of it is Biden/ Trump again. Both will be disasters in different ways ..

I am sick of taking the least of two poisons. Would really like to be for someone again rather than constantly minimizing damage.
Ok. Now hold those thoughts and look at the polling numbers.

Forget about low "ceilings." Both men are highly unpopular. Calculate "floors."
What is Biden's "floor?"
What is Trump's "floor?"
With two highly unpopular candidaets on the ballot, most independents will not vote, or vote 3rd party.
The guy with the softest floor loses.
The guy with the harder floor wins.

In current polling, Trump's number is pretty close to his floor........

Reasonable people can run numbers like that and end up in different places, but that's what's shaping up to be the proper construction for forecasting.


Biden has a softer floor….

Jack Bauer
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whiterock said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2023/09/18/shocking-percentage-of-voter-would-back-third-party-candidate-in-biden-trump-rematch-n2163956


I would, give me a decent option!
not necessarily but agree in principle


Going to be hard time of it is Biden/ Trump again. Both will be disasters in different ways ..

I am sick of taking the least of two poisons. Would really like to be for someone again rather than constantly minimizing damage.
Ok. Now hold those thoughts and look at the polling numbers.

Forget about low "ceilings." Both men are highly unpopular. Calculate "floors."
What is Biden's "floor?"
What is Trump's "floor?"
With two highly unpopular candidaets on the ballot, most independents will not vote, or vote 3rd party.
The guy with the softest floor loses.
The guy with the harder floor wins.

In current polling, Trump's number is pretty close to his floor........

Reasonable people can run numbers like that and end up in different places, but that's what's shaping up to be the proper construction for forecasting.


Biden has a softer floor….



I hope he has good security...if you know what I mean.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:


Looks like a 3 horse race...

Trump
Halley
Scott
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:


Looks like a 3 horse race...

Trump
Halley
Scott

Haley is the one to watch
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:


Looks like a 3 horse race...

Trump
Halley
Scott

Haley is the one to watch
I am with you. I want her to be the nominee. She is reasonable.
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