2024

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4th and Inches
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In reply to whiterock • 11:08a, 9/24/23
whiterock said:
been telling yall
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whiterock
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1:12p, 9/24/23
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4th and Inches
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In reply to whiterock • 1:17p, 9/24/23
whiterock said:
he lost the college write off vote.. not hard to beleive
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
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sombear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 1:22p, 9/24/23
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
he lost the college write off vote.. not hard to beleive


Trump's own team is laughing at this poll.

No doubt, Trump is polling better than he ever has. But he's not winning under 35s (WP) or quadrupling his black vote (a couple prior polls). Those all are outliers.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to sombear • 1:53p, 9/24/23
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
he lost the college write off vote.. not hard to beleive


Trump's own team is laughing at this poll.

No doubt, Trump is polling better than he ever has. But he's not winning under 35s (WP) or quadrupling his black vote (a couple prior polls). Those all are outliers.
was a bit tongue and cheek(an emoji was probably appropriate but i didnt.. my bad)
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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sombear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 3:59p, 9/24/23
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
he lost the college write off vote.. not hard to beleive


Trump's own team is laughing at this poll.

No doubt, Trump is polling better than he ever has. But he's not winning under 35s (WP) or quadrupling his black vote (a couple prior polls). Those all are outliers.
was a bit tongue and cheek(an emoji was probably appropriate but i didnt.. my bad)
Respect for not using an emoji!
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Cobretti
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12:13p, 9/25/23
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Mothra
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In reply to Cobretti • 12:18p, 9/25/23
Cobretti said:
Yup. Kemp gets it.
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Jack Bauer
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In reply to Cobretti • 12:25p, 9/25/23
Cobretti said:

OMG - he HAS to be running as Biden's replacement!
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Mothra
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 12:58p, 9/25/23
Jack Bauer said:
Cobretti said:

OMG - he HAS to be running as Biden's replacement!
I said a year ago, I thought the Dems would try to force Biden to step down and run Newsom in his place. Nothing that has transpired thus far has changed that view.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 8:22a, 9/26/23
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
he lost the college write off vote.. not hard to beleive


Trump's own team is laughing at this poll.

No doubt, Trump is polling better than he ever has. But he's not winning under 35s (WP) or quadrupling his black vote (a couple prior polls). Those all are outliers.
indeed. the youth vote is notoriously hard to turn out in big numbers.

the question is....why would alphabet media report a poll like this at all?

new narrative underway: Dem establishments trying to nudge Biden to not run.
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:35a, 9/26/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
he lost the college write off vote.. not hard to beleive


Trump's own team is laughing at this poll.

No doubt, Trump is polling better than he ever has. But he's not winning under 35s (WP) or quadrupling his black vote (a couple prior polls). Those all are outliers.
indeed. the youth vote is notoriously hard to turn out in big numbers.

the question is....why would alphabet media report a poll like this at all?

new narrative underway: Dem establishments trying to nudge Biden to not run.
Definitely possible. But WP/ABC has been an enigma for a long time. They have a fairly solid record, but they've also had some of the worst outliers. Remember, they had Biden up 17 in Wiscy! They were bad all around in 2020 (all on the Biden high side) but solid in 2022, 2018, and 2016.
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Mothra
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In reply to whiterock • 8:56a, 9/26/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
he lost the college write off vote.. not hard to beleive


Trump's own team is laughing at this poll.

No doubt, Trump is polling better than he ever has. But he's not winning under 35s (WP) or quadrupling his black vote (a couple prior polls). Those all are outliers.
indeed. the youth vote is notoriously hard to turn out in big numbers.

the question is....why would alphabet media report a poll like this at all?

new narrative underway: Dem establishments trying to nudge Biden to not run.


Yup.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 10:02a, 9/26/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
he lost the college write off vote.. not hard to beleive


Trump's own team is laughing at this poll.

No doubt, Trump is polling better than he ever has. But he's not winning under 35s (WP) or quadrupling his black vote (a couple prior polls). Those all are outliers.
indeed. the youth vote is notoriously hard to turn out in big numbers.

the question is....why would alphabet media report a poll like this at all?

new narrative underway: Dem establishments trying to nudge Biden to not run.
Definitely possible. But WP/ABC has been an enigma for a long time. They have a fairly solid record, but they've also had some of the worst outliers. Remember, they had Biden up 17 in Wiscy! They were bad all around in 2020 (all on the Biden high side) but solid in 2022, 2018, and 2016.
I think that was Monmouth that had Biden up by 17, but indeed, the alphabet media polls have been skewed left.

I posted the NBC poll somewhere back up the line, primarily because it showed Haley running strong. Here's an NBC story which breaks down internals of that poll.

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/poll-overwhelming-majorities-express-concerns-biden-trump-ahead-2024-r-rcna111347
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to Cobretti • 10:23a, 9/26/23
Cobretti said:
Stupid. Why would DeSantis give Gruesome Newsom any credibility?
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 10:33a, 9/26/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
he lost the college write off vote.. not hard to beleive


Trump's own team is laughing at this poll.

No doubt, Trump is polling better than he ever has. But he's not winning under 35s (WP) or quadrupling his black vote (a couple prior polls). Those all are outliers.
indeed. the youth vote is notoriously hard to turn out in big numbers.

the question is....why would alphabet media report a poll like this at all?

new narrative underway: Dem establishments trying to nudge Biden to not run.
Definitely possible. But WP/ABC has been an enigma for a long time. They have a fairly solid record, but they've also had some of the worst outliers. Remember, they had Biden up 17 in Wiscy! They were bad all around in 2020 (all on the Biden high side) but solid in 2022, 2018, and 2016.
I think that was Monmouth that had Biden up by 17, but indeed, the alphabet media polls have been skewed left.

I posted the NBC poll somewhere back up the line, primarily because it showed Haley running strong. Here's an NBC story which breaks down internals of that poll.

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/poll-overwhelming-majorities-express-concerns-biden-trump-ahead-2024-r-rcna111347
No, it was WP/ABC, but I can see why you'd mix them up, b/c Monmouth also had some bizarre misses in 2020, including massive double-digit misses in FL and IA. Maybe PA, too.
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Redbrickbear
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11:06a, 9/26/23
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 11:15a, 9/26/23
Redbrickbear said:
Joy Reid may be the most bigoted person on the planet. Not sure how her rhetoric is acceptable to CNN. If she was white, she would have been fired years ago.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to RD2WINAGNBEAR86 • 11:20a, 9/26/23
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Redbrickbear said:
Joy Reid may be the most bigoted person on the planet. Not sure how her rhetoric is acceptable to CNN. If she was white, she would have been fired years ago.

She is no more bigoted than your average DEI commissar at Baylor or any Africana studies Professor at generic State U.

This is simply who these people are and what they have always believed.
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Cobretti
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11:55a, 9/26/23
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Jack Bauer
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In reply to RD2WINAGNBEAR86 • 12:15p, 9/26/23
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Redbrickbear said:
Joy Reid may be the most bigoted person on the planet. Not sure how her rhetoric is acceptable to CNN. If she was white, she would have been fired years ago.

I wasn't really thinking about voting for Trump, but these 2 bozos may have convinced me to do so!
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whiterock
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1:01p, 9/26/23
"margin of fraud"
I have mentioned that several times before. GOP consultants know they have to be 3-points ahead to ensure fraud isn't a factor.
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to whiterock • 1:36p, 9/26/23
whiterock said:
"margin of fraud"
I have mentioned that several times before. GOP consultants know they have to be 3-points ahead to ensure fraud isn't a factor.

You are 100% right.

If you don't have a big lead going into swing states like Georgia, Penn, Mich, and Wisconsin....then 1 or 2 heavily democratic cities are gonna juice up the vote and magically find the ballots needed to win.
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 2:04p, 9/26/23
whiterock said:
"margin of fraud"
I have mentioned that several times before. GOP consultants know they have to be 3-points ahead to ensure fraud isn't a factor.
I've been involved with campaigns since the early 90s, and I've ever heard a serious consultant or pollster say that until Cahaly.

I've posted more times than I can count that Trump's pollsters pretty much had it right in 2016 and 2020, except in 2016 they thought they would lose a close race. In 2016, Trump's pollsters had him losing FL, MI, and WI. I don't recall MI.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 4:56p, 9/26/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
"margin of fraud"
I have mentioned that several times before. GOP consultants know they have to be 3-points ahead to ensure fraud isn't a factor.
I've been involved with campaigns since the early 90s, and I've ever heard a serious consultant or pollster say that until Cahaly.

I've posted more times than I can count that Trump's pollsters pretty much had it right in 2016 and 2020, except in 2016 they thought they would lose a close race. In 2016, Trump's pollsters had him losing FL, MI, and WI. I don't recall MI.

I'm not going to drop names here, but the guys I'm talking about are on retainer for several current and former statewide electeds….
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whiterock
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5:09p, 9/26/23
The team doing this campaign is too notch. Hilarious.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 5:51p, 9/26/23
whiterock said:
The team doing this campaign is too notch. Hilarious.


Well Trump does have perfect genetics and the bodyfat of an elite athlete...
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Oldbear83
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:51p, 9/26/23
Soviet weightlifter, you mean?
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:33p, 9/26/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
"margin of fraud"
I have mentioned that several times before. GOP consultants know they have to be 3-points ahead to ensure fraud isn't a factor.
I've been involved with campaigns since the early 90s, and I've ever heard a serious consultant or pollster say that until Cahaly.

I've posted more times than I can count that Trump's pollsters pretty much had it right in 2016 and 2020, except in 2016 they thought they would lose a close race. In 2016, Trump's pollsters had him losing FL, MI, and WI. I don't recall MI.

I'm not going to drop names here, but the guys I'm talking about are on retainer for several current and former statewide electeds….


Do they manipulate their polls to reflect that?
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 5:15a, 9/27/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
"margin of fraud"
I have mentioned that several times before. GOP consultants know they have to be 3-points ahead to ensure fraud isn't a factor.
I've been involved with campaigns since the early 90s, and I've ever heard a serious consultant or pollster say that until Cahaly.

I've posted more times than I can count that Trump's pollsters pretty much had it right in 2016 and 2020, except in 2016 they thought they would lose a close race. In 2016, Trump's pollsters had him losing FL, MI, and WI. I don't recall MI.

I'm not going to drop names here, but the guys I'm talking about are on retainer for several current and former statewide electeds….


Do they manipulate their polls to reflect that?
Nope. They just note the obvious fact that Dems can pull a percentage point out of the hat, if need be, so plan to win by 3 or more to make the fraud immaterial.
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whiterock
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6:12a, 9/27/23
Thread: Baris saying (his polling shows) pretty much same thing I've been saying about the primary and general election voters for some time....


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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 9:01a, 9/27/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
"margin of fraud"
I have mentioned that several times before. GOP consultants know they have to be 3-points ahead to ensure fraud isn't a factor.
I've been involved with campaigns since the early 90s, and I've ever heard a serious consultant or pollster say that until Cahaly.

I've posted more times than I can count that Trump's pollsters pretty much had it right in 2016 and 2020, except in 2016 they thought they would lose a close race. In 2016, Trump's pollsters had him losing FL, MI, and WI. I don't recall MI.

I'm not going to drop names here, but the guys I'm talking about are on retainer for several current and former statewide electeds….


Do they manipulate their polls to reflect that?
Nope. They just note the obvious fact that Dems can pull a percentage point out of the hat, if need be, so plan to win by 3 or more to make the fraud immaterial.
Ok, then I misinterpreted your original post. Obviously I've heard GOP politicos complain about Dem cheating.

My point was that, on the polling side, if they really believed it, they would bake it into their polling data. But they don't do that. And GOP pollsters historically have been very accurate. So, I don't see how they can have it both ways.

Again, for example, Trump's internal polls have been crazy accurate and, in fact, under-weighted Trump in 2016 and 2020. They also were accurate on the 2018 mid-terms. So, if they truly believe in mass fraud that equaled a 3% variation, then their own polls were way off.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 7:03a, 9/29/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
"margin of fraud"
I have mentioned that several times before. GOP consultants know they have to be 3-points ahead to ensure fraud isn't a factor.
I've been involved with campaigns since the early 90s, and I've ever heard a serious consultant or pollster say that until Cahaly.

I've posted more times than I can count that Trump's pollsters pretty much had it right in 2016 and 2020, except in 2016 they thought they would lose a close race. In 2016, Trump's pollsters had him losing FL, MI, and WI. I don't recall MI.

I'm not going to drop names here, but the guys I'm talking about are on retainer for several current and former statewide electeds….


Do they manipulate their polls to reflect that?
Nope. They just note the obvious fact that Dems can pull a percentage point out of the hat, if need be, so plan to win by 3 or more to make the fraud immaterial.
Ok, then I misinterpreted your original post. Obviously I've heard GOP politicos complain about Dem cheating.

My point was that, on the polling side, if they really believed it, they would bake it into their polling data. But they don't do that. And GOP pollsters historically have been very accurate. So, I don't see how they can have it both ways.

Again, for example, Trump's internal polls have been crazy accurate and, in fact, under-weighted Trump in 2016 and 2020. They also were accurate on the 2018 mid-terms. So, if they truly believe in mass fraud that equaled a 3% variation, then their own polls were way off.
Cahaly does, or at least did in his PA polling for 2020 = 2% mostly in Philly.

And that kind of margin is why the dynamic you cite is not terribly instructive. The top end of the "most accurate" list of firms doing public polling usually is right around 3% (i.e. the margin of error).

And that's also why you don't hear about the margin of fraud so much....it mathematically has to be within the margin of error or it gets too easy to spot. It leaps out beyond the polls and runs into implausible stats on voter rolls, registrations, ballots cast, etc... Also begs questions about intentions of all the media polling firms, who typically are up closer to 5-6 points off....are they really that bad, or are there ulterior motives, to include covering for fraud?
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whiterock
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2:23p, 9/29/23
Big, if true….

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/exclusive-robert-f-kennedy-jr-planning-to-announce-independent-run/
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Cobretti
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4:22p, 9/29/23
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