2024

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boognish_bear
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6:29p, 9/29/23
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Cobretti
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11:54a, 9/30/23



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Jack Bauer
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In reply to Cobretti • 12:07p, 9/30/23
Cobretti said:

Yes, it was BRAVE to go against the American voters in 2016. For some reason, this video is harder to find online.

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Cobretti
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12:48p, 9/30/23
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Jack Bauer
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In reply to Cobretti • 12:59p, 9/30/23
Cobretti said:


I think this was a good move by DeSantis. It gave him a little more personality and Maher can debate without resorting to throwing out "Nazi", "transphobe", "racist", etc...
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Osodecentx
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 1:41p, 9/30/23
Jack Bauer said:
Cobretti said:

Yes, it was BRAVE to go against the American voters in 2016. For some reason, this video is harder to find online.

Are you standing with celebrities in urging the electoral college? I mean, Trump did into so I guess it's alright
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Cobretti
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11:37a, 10/2/23
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whiterock
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3:20p, 10/2/23
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whiterock
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3:43a, 10/3/23
It's Monmouth, so grains of salt are warranted, but the title does capture the race accurately: "Little Enthusiasm for 2024 Front-Runners"

Most interesting aspect is the trend.

Issues:
4.5% MOE (high)
Demographics (over-sample Dems)


Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 24% Republican, 44% Independent, 31% Democrat

Sex: 47% Male, 52% Female

Age: 26% 18-34, 33% 35-54, 41% 55+

Race: 62% White, 12% Black, 16% Hispanic, 10% Asian/Other

Education: 36% High school or less, 30% Some college, 18% 4 year degree, 17% graduate degree

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_100223/




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whiterock
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3:55a, 10/3/23
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whiterock
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7:33a, 10/4/23
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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 7:52a, 10/4/23
whiterock said:
Being shown exactly what we want to see...

I would start questioning why every time something that has been viewed as a negative for the past 200 years happens, it has the opposite effect on the polls. Nobody sees that as strange???

GOP blows up their own Speaker for the first time in US history, polls go up for Trump?

Trump indicted on classified docs, polls go up?

Trump indicted for Jan 6th storming of Capital, polls go up?

Trump's own staff say he is a threat (list of 23 below. 23), polls go up?

Yeah, every dice roll comes up Donald. Anyone else that does data analysis see this as a strange trend? AI, be careful of what they are not showing you, not what you see...

How AI will transform the 2024 elections | Brookings

7 Ways AI Could Solve All Of Our Election Woes: Out With The Polls, In With The AI Models (forbes.com)

Prepare for the Political Pollsterbots - The Atlantic


1. His vice president, Mike Pence
2. His second attorney general, Bill Barr
3. His first secretary of defense, James Mattis
4. His second secretary of defense, Mark Esper
5. His chairman of the joint chiefs, retired Gen. Mark Milley
6. His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson
7. His first ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley
8. His presidential transition vice-chairman, Chris Christie
9. His second national security adviser, HR McMaster
10. His third national security adviser, John Bolton
11. His second chief of staff, John Kelly
12. His former acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney
13. Former communications directors, Anthony Scaramucci
14.Former communications director, Stephanie Grisham
15. Secretary of education, Betsy DeVos, who resigned after January 6
16. His secretary of transportation, Elaine Chao, who resigned after January 6
17. His first secretary of the Navy, Richard Spencer
18. His first homeland security adviser, Tom Bossert
19. His White House lawyer, Ty Cobb
20. Former director of strategic communications, Alyssa Farah Griffin
21. Sarah Matthews, former deputy White House press secretary
22. Former deputy press secretary, Sarah Matthews, who resigned after January 6
23. Chief of staff's aide, Cassidy Hutchinson
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whiterock
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4:48p, 10/4/23
Check out the numbers on independents….

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boognish_bear
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7:23p, 10/4/23


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FLBear5630
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In reply to boognish_bear • 8:01p, 10/4/23
boognish_bear said:




Does this guy ever think it may be him?
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whiterock
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8:28p, 10/4/23
Pink state = Iowa. First head to head comparison I've seen involving Newsom, who is running slightly (at the margin of error) worse vs Trump than Biden.


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whiterock
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10:48a, 10/5/23
Not one of the most accurate polls, but illustrative of the trend. (and leans Dem)

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whiterock
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11:16a, 10/5/23
Details on Marquette poll.

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whiterock
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12:42p, 10/5/23

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Osodecentx
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 5:06p, 10/5/23
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:




Does this guy ever think it may be him?


'Trump's generals' need to warn voters that he is unfit to serve
Three years ago, Atlantic Editor in Chief Jeffrey Goldberg wrote that President Donald Trump had referred to soldiers killed in battle as "suckers" and "losers." Trump immediately called it a "fake story" and said it was a "disgrace" that the magazine was allowed to publish it. This week, John F. Kelly, Trump's longest-serving White House chief of staff, confirmed the accuracy of that article, as well as that of a book by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser that quoted Trump complaining that being in the presence of military amputees "doesn't look good for me."

In a statement released to CNN, Kelly, a retired Marine general who lost his own son in combat in Afghanistan, not only wrote of Trump's disdain for wounded and fallen veterans but also described Trump as "a person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. … A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law."
Kelly concluded: "There is nothing more that can be said. God help us."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/05/kelly-mattis-mcmaster-trump-warning/
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Osodecentx • 6:44p, 10/5/23
If you are quoting WaPo, you are in likelihood a Democrat whatever you claim.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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whiterock
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8:13p, 10/5/23
Normally, GOP candidates do better with likely voters than wit registered voters. The margins here are all within margin of error, so we shouldn't overanalyze. But if we see that same construction repeating itself out over time…..very interesting.

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Jack Bauer
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8:45p, 10/5/23
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whiterock
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4:37p, 10/6/23
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Redbrickbear
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10:53a, 10/7/23
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 11:31a, 10/7/23
Redbrickbear said:


You are so right. Trump should not be investigated or indicted, ever. He may run for office, so he needs to be unconstrained. It really doesn't matter if he broke the law, there are higher principles at play here. He must be free to run, he is America.
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boognish_bear
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12:29p, 10/7/23
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 12:59p, 10/7/23
FLBear5630 said:
Redbrickbear said:


You are so right. Trump should not be investigated or indicted, ever….


By all means hold Trump accountable and prosecute him for violations of the law.

But don't act for a second like the regime in DC is doing this because they care deeply about the rule of law…they have been breaking it for decades. Enriching themselves on everything from shady real estate schemes to insider trading to God only knows what else….
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 1:31p, 10/7/23
Redbrickbear said:
FLBear5630 said:
Redbrickbear said:


You are so right. Trump should not be investigated or indicted, ever….


By all means hold Trump accountable and prosecute him for violations of the law.

But don't act for a second like the regime in DC is doing this because they care deeply about the rule of law…they have been breaking it for decades. Enriching themselves on everything from shady real estate schemes to insider trading to God only knows what else….


They did it because they can. The idiot blowhard Trump left himself wide open for this. He alienated everyone but the fringe right. His allies are Briebart, Gaetz and Greene. I am shocked he left himself exposed like this.

He showed classified documents on the triad to a foreign national. Would Bush get prosecuted? First he wouldn't do it, but he didn't get everyone in power to gate him. He didn't play ringleader to Jan 6th. He didn't tweet constantly.

Is it political, yeah. Doesn't make the charges less true. He is seeing that now in NY. Did everyone else do it, yeah. Doesn't change the fact he did. It is like drinking 5 miles over speed limit. Try the defense everyone else did it.
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boognish_bear
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12:27p, 10/9/23
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FLBear5630
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In reply to boognish_bear • 12:34p, 10/9/23
boognish_bear said:
I guess some people think this is Presidential effective communication? Going to be really curious how actual votes tally vs poll projections.
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Mothra
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In reply to boognish_bear • 12:44p, 10/9/23
boognish_bear said:
It's absolutely hilarious that he's butthurt over being left off the Forbes 400 list. This guy is as thin skinned as they come.
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 1:03p, 10/9/23
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
I guess some people think this is Presidential effective communication? Going to be really curious how actual votes tally vs poll projections.
This is the kind of crap that shows Trump can't be taken seriously. The S O B has always done a piss poor job of picking and choosing his battles. None of us peasants give a damn about the Forbes 400.

Give me DeSantis, Tim Scott, or Nikki Haley. Anybody but Trump or the corpse currently residing in the White House.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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Redbrickbear
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12:12a, 10/11/23
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boognish_bear
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8:44p, 10/11/23
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