2024

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to boognish_bear • 1:11p, 12/17/23
It is past time for Christie and Vivek to exit the race.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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4th and Inches
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In reply to RD2WINAGNBEAR86 • 1:28p, 12/17/23
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
It is past time for Christie and Vivek to exit the race.
as long as people keep donating, neither will..
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
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KaiBear
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In reply to RD2WINAGNBEAR86 • 2:58p, 12/17/23
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
It is past time for Christie and Vivek to exit the race.


I expect Christie to depart within 30 days.

Vivek is having too much fun to quit anytime soon.
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to KaiBear • 4:29p, 12/17/23
KaiBear said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
It is past time for Christie and Vivek to exit the race.



Vivek is having too much fun to quit anytime soon.


I hope he stays in the race as long as possible


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whiterock
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 7:06a, 12/18/23
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra: "Can you provide me with one military assessment that says Ukraine can achieve anything other than a stalemate? "

I have friends in Intel who told me several ways Russia can lose, giving Ukraine a de facto win.

The problem is that those scenarios all involve outside involvement by interested parties such as the United States, and that means escalation with all the risk from such an action.

What worries me is who in the US hierarchy is making the go/no-go decision in such an escalation.
Indeed, every scenario I have seen that says Ukraine can take back the Donbas and Crimea includes US/NATO involvement in the form of air support, at a minimum. It is otherwise completely incapable of reclaiming large swaths of territory on its own, as we have seen with its offensive this past summer. And we know that to the extent we provide air support, we are flirting with nuclear war. So that's not going to happen, outside of some doomsday prognostication.

That being the case, it is a legitimate question to ask of whiterock and the other neocons, what is the end game here? Do we keep throwing billions in borrowed monies so that the parties can fight to a stalemate? In other words, do we simply use Ukrainian lives to serve the strategic interests of the U.S. in a weakened Russia that is in a perpetual state of war with Ukraine? Or is the end game, Ukraine must take back all territory, which of course will never happen without us stepping up military support in the form of air strikes?

When there is no realistic goal, we typically end up in a quagmire.
Politicians rarely make decisions based on the best military outcome. It's far more common for politicians to make decisions based on the political optics. 'Supporting our friends' is a very common political theme when speaking to use of the military.

What the politicians say to sell a policy does not always reflect a very big portion of the justification for the policy. They use the meme they think will move the needle at any given time.

There are several retired generals of substance who have laid out viable plans for victory, as defined by Russian withdrawal from occupied Ukraine. None of them depend on radical new things that would escalate. Just quit slow walking the aid for the purpose of ensuring a stalemate. 400 ATACMS would go a long way. Drop the Kerch bridge and hammer the transport lines at Berdaynsk = logistical collapse of everything west of the Orkhiv sector.

Russian logistics simply cannot match Ukrainian logistics (should NATO open up the flow).
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whiterock
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 7:08a, 12/18/23
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.


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KaiBear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:01a, 12/18/23
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
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Redbrickbear
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9:51a, 12/18/23
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4th and Inches
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In reply to KaiBear • 10:26a, 12/18/23
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
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Jack Bauer
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12:03p, 12/18/23
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KaiBear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 12:16p, 12/18/23
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to KaiBear • 12:38p, 12/18/23
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
yet he is polling higher than ever..

I am not forgetting anything, i am looking at the data and giving my opinion based on those observations.

16 - unknown vs terrible Dem canidate
20 - terrible GOP canidate vs unknown presidential canidate but "normal" prior public office experience
24- terrible GOP vs Terrible Dem but the people suffered less under terrible GOP.. I think Trump wins if held today.
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#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 12:58p, 12/18/23
4th and Inches said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
It is past time for Christie and Vivek to exit the race.
as long as people keep donating, neither will..
No one is "donating" to Christie. He's being paid to be in the race so he can trash Trump at every turn so the other candidates don't have to. Probably picks her up his checks on the 1st and 15th at RNC HQ
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In reply to KaiBear • 1:04p, 12/18/23
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 1:10p, 12/18/23
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Or the RNC for running him as their candidate. This Trump polling feels more like marketing than polling...
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muddybrazos
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 1:21p, 12/18/23
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Or the RNC for running him as their candidate. This Trump polling feels more like marketing than polling...
The RNC, unlike the DNC, puts up who the people want as their candidate and the overwhelming majority of would be republican voters want Trump. The DNC just picks whichever establishment candidate has been selected by their powers that be to be the nominee bc they have a bunch of mindless morons that will vote blue no matter who.
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 5:59p, 12/18/23
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Or the RNC for running him as their candidate. This Trump polling feels more like marketing than polling...
lol... you forget that people actually vote for who will be nominee. So, I ask the question again
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 6:12p, 12/18/23
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Or the RNC for running him as their candidate. This Trump polling feels more like marketing than polling...
lol... you forget that people actually vote for who will be nominee. So, I ask the question again
First, not one vote has been cast. So, no one has voted for the declared winner at this point. So far the only ones that have "voted" is the FOX Pundits pushing Trump

Second, you don't think this is a strategy to limit the field? Trump has been working this for 2 years. The marketing getting the sheep to moving in one direction, the majority will follow. If Halley is such a RINO why was she Ambassador to the UN under Trump? If DeSantis is such a loser, why did Trump endorse him?

This is all orchestrated
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KaiBear
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 6:19p, 12/18/23
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Will be the fault of Republican power brokers who lacked the guts to stop a nominee who was a sure loser in the general election .

Say what you want about Democrats; but they didn't hesitate to sabotage Ol Bernie when he became the primary front runner in 2020.

They knew Bernie could not win the general election despite his intense popularity with his base.
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 8:13p, 12/18/23
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. %A026 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years. %A0

Let's see if that holds true on election day. %A0My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. %A0But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. %A0I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: %A0 no, they are not magically starting to like him. %A0most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. %A0unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. %A0 %A0yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. %A0 But that's not the choice this cycle. %A0The choice will be between two historically %A0unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. %A0The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. %A0THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: %A0 somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. %A0 They will sure try hard. %A0And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. %A0 Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. %A0 %A0 We know how bad it is for Trump. %A0it can't get much worse. %A0There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. %A0 His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win. %A0 %A0

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." %A0He is nowhere near his bottom. %A0
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. %A0His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. %A0Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. %A0In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. %A0I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. %A0I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. %A0Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Or the RNC for running him as their candidate. %A0This Trump polling feels more like marketing than polling...
lol... you forget that people actually vote for who will be nominee. So, I ask the question again
First, not one vote has been cast. %A0So, no one has voted for the declared winner at this point. %A0So far the only ones that have "voted" is the FOX Pundits pushing Trump

Second, you don't think this is a strategy to limit the field? %A0Trump has been working this for 2 years. %A0The marketing getting the sheep to moving in one direction, the majority will follow. If Halley is such a RINO why was she Ambassador to the UN under Trump? %A0If DeSantis is such a loser, why did Trump endorse him? %A0

This is all orchestrated
If Trump is the nominee, then who's fault is it if a democrat walks right back in the White House? The folks that voted for him in the primary or the folks that refuse to vote for him in the general?
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to KaiBear • 8:17p, 12/18/23
KaiBear said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Will be the fault of Republican power brokers who lacked the guts to stop a nominee who was a sure loser in the general election .

Say what you want about Democrats; but they didn't hesitate to sabotage Ol Bernie when he became the primary front runner in 2020.

They knew Bernie could not win the general election despite his intense popularity with his base.
So, you'd rather the RNC act like the DNC and pick and choose which candidates the people are allowed to vote for in a primary?

So, the power brokers should have more say than the people? Okay.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 8:18p, 12/18/23
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. %A026 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years. %A0

Let's see if that holds true on election day. %A0My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. %A0But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. %A0I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: %A0 no, they are not magically starting to like him. %A0most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. %A0unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. %A0 %A0yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. %A0 But that's not the choice this cycle. %A0The choice will be between two historically %A0unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. %A0The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. %A0THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: %A0 somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. %A0 They will sure try hard. %A0And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. %A0 Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. %A0 %A0 We know how bad it is for Trump. %A0it can't get much worse. %A0There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. %A0 His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win. %A0 %A0

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." %A0He is nowhere near his bottom. %A0
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. %A0His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. %A0Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. %A0In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. %A0I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. %A0I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. %A0Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Or the RNC for running him as their candidate. %A0This Trump polling feels more like marketing than polling...
lol... you forget that people actually vote for who will be nominee. So, I ask the question again
First, not one vote has been cast. %A0So, no one has voted for the declared winner at this point. %A0So far the only ones that have "voted" is the FOX Pundits pushing Trump

Second, you don't think this is a strategy to limit the field? %A0Trump has been working this for 2 years. %A0The marketing getting the sheep to moving in one direction, the majority will follow. If Halley is such a RINO why was she Ambassador to the UN under Trump? %A0If DeSantis is such a loser, why did Trump endorse him? %A0

This is all orchestrated
If Trump is the nominee, then who's fault is it if a democrat walks right back in the White House? The folks that voted for him in the primary or the folks that refuse to vote for him in the general?
refuse to vote for him ok, vote for Joe Biden against him is a crime yet many will do it while claiming to be conservatives saving our DeMoCrAcY!
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 8:21p, 12/18/23

Quote:
Quote:
This is all orchestrated

refuse to vote for him ok, vote for Joe Biden against him is a crime yet many will do it while claiming to be conservatives saving our DeMoCrAcY!

Cracks me up when I see Never Trumpers trash the Only Trumpers without realizing that they are both the exact same.
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Mothra
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 8:37p, 12/18/23
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?
Shocked for me. Look, I'd take him over Biden any day of the week, but I just see no way these numbers hold up once he's he nominee. More air time for Trump is a very bad thing.

It's going to be Biden again in 2024 if Trump is the nominee.
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Mothra
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 8:39p, 12/18/23
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
The answer is: both.
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Harrison Bergeron
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9:45p, 12/18/23
At the end of the day I think we all agree we deserve better than a choice between the most divisive, corrupt, incompetent, anti-democratic administration in more than 90 years and ... Donald Trump.
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Redbrickbear
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10:55p, 12/18/23
Chip Roy is arguably the most consistently conservative Republican in Congress.

I have no idea what Trump is talking about



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FLBear5630
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 6:49a, 12/19/23
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Will be the fault of Republican power brokers who lacked the guts to stop a nominee who was a sure loser in the general election .

Say what you want about Democrats; but they didn't hesitate to sabotage Ol Bernie when he became the primary front runner in 2020.

They knew Bernie could not win the general election despite his intense popularity with his base.
So, you'd rather the RNC act like the DNC and pick and choose which candidates the people are allowed to vote for in a primary?

So, the power brokers should have more say than the people? Okay.


Last I saw there was no Convention, no Nominee, no Primary held. Only Polls, Pundits and MAGAs saying the election is over Trump won jump on the Trump bandwagon or you are a RINO or God-forbid a Democrat.

We are not at Biden vs Trump, why is Trump the only option allowed to be discussed? Traditionally this is the time where you discuss ALL the Candidates. But the Polls say it is over so now it can only be Trump. Hell why have Primaries or even a Convention Trump hit 60% in the Polls race over...

You guys don't smell anything rotten about this?? Fits into a nice little package. But it is on the up and up all the suburban women that hate Trump have now done a 180 and will vote for him?
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 7:30a, 12/19/23
Redbrickbear said:
Chip Roy is arguably the most consistently conservative Republican in Congress.

I have no idea what Trump is talking about



I am sure Trump is airing some petty grievance he has with Roy, who is one of the best and most conservative members of Congress (certainly more conservative than Trump).

This is why I don't understand some of you guys' undying support for this Grade A ****** bag.

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Porteroso
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 7:37a, 12/19/23
Whiskey Pete said:

Quote:
Quote:
This is all orchestrated

refuse to vote for him ok, vote for Joe Biden against him is a crime yet many will do it while claiming to be conservatives saving our DeMoCrAcY!

Cracks me up when I see Never Trumpers trash the Only Trumpers without realizing that they are both the exact same.

Were the Never Hitlers and the Only Hitlers the exact same?
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7:41a, 12/19/23
In the meantime, more great news out of Ukraine. Looks like the fronts are frozen, and Russians are completely dug in.

But I am sure a few more billion dollars in weapons will fix the problem as opposed to looking for an exit strategy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-glows-triumphant-as-front-freezes-and-western-aid-for-ukraine-stalls/ar-AA1lIjmb
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 7:58a, 12/19/23
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. %A026 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years. %A0

Let's see if that holds true on election day. %A0My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. %A0But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. %A0I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: %A0 no, they are not magically starting to like him. %A0most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. %A0unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. %A0 %A0yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. %A0 But that's not the choice this cycle. %A0The choice will be between two historically %A0unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. %A0The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. %A0THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: %A0 somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. %A0 They will sure try hard. %A0And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. %A0 Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. %A0 %A0 We know how bad it is for Trump. %A0it can't get much worse. %A0There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. %A0 His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win. %A0 %A0

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." %A0He is nowhere near his bottom. %A0
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. %A0His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. %A0Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. %A0In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. %A0I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. %A0I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. %A0Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?


I would be shocked .

You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.

He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.

Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.

The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.

Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?

The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Will be the fault of Republican power brokers who lacked the guts to stop a nominee who was a sure loser in the general election .

Say what you want about Democrats; but they didn't hesitate to sabotage Ol Bernie when he became the primary front runner in 2020.

They knew Bernie could not win the general election despite his intense popularity with his base.
So, you'd rather the RNC act like the DNC and pick and choose which candidates the people are allowed to vote for in a primary?

So, the power brokers should have more say than the people? %A0Okay.


Last I saw there was no Convention, no Nominee, no Primary held. %A0Only Polls, Pundits and MAGAs saying the election is over Trump won jump on the Trump bandwagon or you are a RINO or God-forbid a Democrat.

We are not at Biden vs Trump, why is Trump the only option allowed to be discussed? %A0Traditionally this is the time where you discuss ALL the Candidates. But the Polls say it is over so now it can only be Trump. %A0Hell why have Primaries or even a Convention Trump hit 60% in the Polls race over...

You guys don't smell anything rotten about this?? %A0Fits into a nice little package. %A0But it is on the up and up all the suburban women that hate Trump have now done a 180 and will vote for him?
Dude, you need to stay on topic. You're seriously constipated with TDS and now you're just bloviating. You're lack of comprehension is astounding. Here are the two questions, I'll type real slow so you can hear me:

1) Should the power brokers for each party decided which candidates are allowed to win a primary or should the voters be able to decide which candidate can win a primary

2) If Trump is the Republican nominee and a democrat walks back into the White House after the election, who's fault is it? A) The people who voted for Trump in the primary or B) The people who refused to vote for him in the general?
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to Porteroso • 7:58a, 12/19/23
Porteroso said:
Whiskey Pete said:

Quote:
Quote:
This is all orchestrated

refuse to vote for him ok, vote for Joe Biden against him is a crime yet many will do it while claiming to be conservatives saving our DeMoCrAcY!

Cracks me up when I see Never Trumpers trash the Only Trumpers without realizing that they are both the exact same.

Were the Never Hitlers and the Only Hitlers the exact same?
I don't know, ask Biden. He was there.
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Harrison Bergeron
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 8:04a, 12/19/23
Whiskey Pete said:
Porteroso said:
Whiskey Pete said:

Quote:
Quote:
This is all orchestrated

refuse to vote for him ok, vote for Joe Biden against him is a crime yet many will do it while claiming to be conservatives saving our DeMoCrAcY!

Cracks me up when I see Never Trumpers trash the Only Trumpers without realizing that they are both the exact same.

Were the Never Hitlers and the Only Hitlers the exact same?
I don't know, ask Biden. He was there.
The contemporary fascists' continual obsession with Hitler is weird. The modern day, anti-Jewish regressives may worship Hitler more than Barry.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Mothra • 8:28a, 12/19/23
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. 26 points toward Trump.

So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years.

Let's see if that holds true on election day. My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. I just hope you're not disappointed.

Again.
here's what you're missing: no, they are not magically starting to like him. most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. But that's not the choice this cycle. The choice will be between two historically unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. THAT is what the polls are showing.

Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. They will sure try hard. And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. We know how bad it is for Trump. it can't get much worse. There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win.

Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." He is nowhere near his bottom.
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.

I suspect he is right. I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.

Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.

I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.

Almost beyond the margin of fraud.




You are going to be so disappointed.

Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?
Shocked for me. Look, I'd take him over Biden any day of the week, but I just see no way these numbers hold up once he's he nominee. More air time for Trump is a very bad thing.

It's going to be Biden again in 2024 if Trump is the nominee.
more air time for Trump? So the WaPo video about if Donald Trump became a dictator this morning isnt air time?

There are more Trump related stories in MSM than anything else. 8 years of negative press dominating the news cycle and he still polls better than ever..

The Dems forgot to slow walk this nonsense that They're pushing and could have got 8 to 12 years of political dominance but instead they forced fed it to the American public and the American public doesn't want it. While the public would like a better candidate than Donald Trump, they will vote him in just stop The progressive movement and economic ruin that's happening in this country.
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