Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Evasion, as expected.

And a potshot insult, as is becoming your signature move, Mothra.

---

Well, you would know, Clark.

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Actually no, as my exhaustive review of the last two weeks showed, Mothra.

You can believe it, you can keep claiming it, but the lie that I regularly attack, especially compared to you, just falls apart when inspected.

But you do you.

---

Your exhaustive review of the last two weeks proved my point. But hey, I commend you for trying, old man. It must have taken a lot of effort.

Too bad you couldn't have put your time and effort to better use by proving your theory that the "consensus" is Trump would perform better against Biden than DeSantis or Haley. But I guess having to support your b.s. is too exhausting.

Am sick and tired of hearing that "75 percent of the country" wants to vote for someone besides Trump or Biden. I call b u l l s h i t!!!!! It is coming to light quickly that people say one thing and do another. Both sides are guilty. How can people expect honesty out of their politicians when they themselves are not honest?

More insults and false claims from Mothra.

Yet it's 'bad' when Trump does it.

Hmmm.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Am sick and tired of hearing that "75 percent of the country" wants to vote for someone besides Trump or Biden. I call b u l l s h i t!!!!! It is coming to light quickly that people say one thing and do another. Both sides are guilty. How can people expect honesty out of their politicians when they themselves are not honest?

---

Here's the problem, as I see it.

I think it's true that most people would rather someone besides Trump or Biden in the White House.

But they look at the other candidates we have seen since, say, 2004, and they see Obama, McCain, Hillary, Romney, and so on and they pretty much wonder how it is we get such crappy candidates election after election?

I voted for McCain in the General Election in 2008, but only because Obama would have been worse, same reason I voted Romney in November 2012. Hated them both in the primaries but my guy lost and it was Crap or Worse Crap to choose from.

The media has been all-in for a Trump-Biden rematch since at least 2022, and everyone knows it. Aside from the fact that Trump doesn't lose support no matter what happens, isn't it strange that there is no serious Democrat competition for the Democrat nomination this year? Biden is clearly a weak and vulnerable candidate; the only conceivable reason to prop him up for another Basement Tour, is because he is a reliable puppet who will do as he is told, and the DNC does not another Obama or Bill Clinton. That is, the DNC likes telling the President what to do, instead of the other way around.

But that's got to leave a lot of voters feeling like their vote doesn't matter. Many will pull the lever out of a sense of duty, maybe even routine, but they will feel cheated.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Solid take. Except for the next to last sentence. Trump isn't significantly more flawed than anyone here. Haley, his likely VP choice, is flawed as well.

Ron DeSantis is the most effective governor in the country, turned a swing-state into a red state, and uniquely marries Donald Trump's fighting spirit with a discipline and focus on effective governing that Trump doesn't have. He would be a terrific president. Better than we…

— Jeremy Boreing (@JeremyDBoreing) January 21, 2024

---

Depends on what you mean by flawed. If a self aggrandizing, petty as a 6th grader blowhard whose had multiple affairs, has been accused of sexual assault, has had money judgments assessed against him on multiple occasions, has lied repeatedly to the American public, has broken numerous campaign promises, has been indicted on multiple felony counts, and attempted to obstruct the orderly transfer of power isn't more flawed than other Republican candidates, Id like to know what you mean by that term.

---

He's no worse than his general election opponent. Or his predecessor. Or any number of current electeds at state and federal level.

All you have to do to find peace is quit holding your own to a higher standard than the other guys and just look at policies.

Mothra said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Mothra said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?

Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.

---

Source?

The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.

Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.

---

Polling doesn't show that.

MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.

---

You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.

Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.

Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.

Get ready to lose again.

---

I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....

And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.

This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.

And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....

Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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Thursday morning at 1:00 a.m.:

Quote:

---

A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES MUST HAVE FULL IMMUNITY, WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIM/HER TO PROPERLY FUNCTION. ANY MISTAKE, EVEN IF WELL INTENDED, WOULD BE MET WITH ALMOST CERTAIN INDICTMENT BY THE OPPOSING PARTY AT TERM END. EVEN EVENTS THAT "CROSS THE LINE" MUST FALL UNDER TOTAL IMMUNITY, OR IT WILL BE YEARS OF TRAUMA TRYING TO DETERMINE GOOD FROM BAD. THERE MUST BE CERTAINTY. EXAMPLE: YOU CAN'T STOP POLICE FROM DOING THE JOB OF STRONG & EFFECTIVE CRIME PREVENTION BECAUSE YOU WANT TO GUARD AGAINST THE OCCASIONAL "ROGUE COP" OR "BAD APPLE." SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO LIVE WITH "GREAT BUT SLIGHTLY IMPERFECT." ALL PRESIDENTS MUST HAVE COMPLETE & TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY, OR THE AUTHORITY & DECISIVENESS OF A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE STRIPPED & GONE FOREVER. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE AN EASY DECISION. GOD BLESS THE SUPREME COURT!
Donald Trump Truth Social 12:59 AM EST 01/18/24

---

---

That's pretty much what I was taught in government class = our founders were wise enough to put in place checks & balances to ensure the justice system was not usurped by political vendettas (as it has been now by Democrats).

---

Unless you grew up in Germany in the 1930s, that's pretty much the opposite of what you were taught in government class. Total immunity for wrongdoing isn't what the Founders meant by checks and balances.

---

Geez. That's not even very good spin. We USED to teach that immunity from prosecution prevented a President from being hamstrung by constant litigation, freeing his hand to handle affairs of state on behalf of the American people (who elected him), and that the appropriate remedy for malfeasances was impeachment.
The beneficiary to the principle is not the President. It's the People, who do need a Chief Executive that can act on their behalf. If he/she doesn't, well......there's impeachment.

Your views are a menace to the Republicans.

---

FIFY

So Trump could assassinate his enemies, no court could touch him, and you think I'm the menace.

---

if he did that, he'd be impeached.
What more does the Republic need than that?

Seriously, dude. Why did the Founders bother with impeachment? Why not just say, "any POTUS convicted in a court of law is automatically expelled from office?" Answer: because they purposely wanted to insulate a POTUS from that, knowing that it would inevitably make the courts just tools of partisan politics.

That's the problem with Trump Unacceptance and Reactionary Derangement and Syndrome (TURDS) - if will stop at nothing, to include using false dilemmas to justify fatally undermining the Republic, if it could stop Donald J. Trump.

You've become the problem you think you're trying to stop.
Seek help.

FLBear5630 said:

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4th and Inches said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

---

But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

---

But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

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the 7 million is a useless stat, why try and use it to make a point. The truth is he won by less than 225k across 7 swing states.

The country population is changing and some states like california will lose electors and others like texas will gain electors due to people mogration. This could have a dramatic effect and why Dems want the illegals to count for census reasons.

---

. If you are using the swing states, it gets worse as Trump is projected to lose those States.

---

Actually, most polls show he's ahead in every one of them except WI, and his lead is well OUTSIDE the margin of error (5-8 pts).

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Mothra said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

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Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?

Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.

---

Source?

The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.

Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.

---

Polling doesn't show that.

MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.

---

You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.

Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.

Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.

Get ready to lose again.

---

I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....

And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.

This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.

And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....

---

This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Solid take. Except for the next to last sentence. Trump isn't significantly more flawed than anyone here. Haley, his likely VP choice, is flawed as well.

Ron DeSantis is the most effective governor in the country, turned a swing-state into a red state, and uniquely marries Donald Trump's fighting spirit with a discipline and focus on effective governing that Trump doesn't have. He would be a terrific president. Better than we…

— Jeremy Boreing (@JeremyDBoreing) January 21, 2024

---

Depends on what you mean by flawed. If a self aggrandizing, petty as a 6th grader blowhard whose had multiple affairs, has been accused of sexual assault, has had money judgments assessed against him on multiple occasions, has lied repeatedly to the American public, has broken numerous campaign promises, has been indicted on multiple felony counts, and attempted to obstruct the orderly transfer of power isn't more flawed than other Republican candidates, Id like to know what you mean by that term.

---

He's no worse than his general election opponent. Or his predecessor. Or any number of current electeds at state and federal level.

All you have to do to find peace is quit holding your own to a higher standard than the other guys and just look at policies.

---

Again, I would like to know what you mean by flawed. A guy under multiple indictments, who regularly fabricates stories and pays off porn stars he had sex with, and who has been accused of sexual assault is a pretty rotten character. Your claim was he is no more flawed than other candidates (Haley, DeSantis). What skeletons do DeSantis and Haley have in their closets that are in any way comparable?

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?

Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.

---

Source?

The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.

Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.

---

Polling doesn't show that.

MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.

---

You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.

Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.

Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.

Get ready to lose again.

---

I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....

And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.

This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.

And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....

---

Feel free to post the polls that have Trump performing better in a general election. I haven't seen any recent polls that say anything of the sort, but sure, if there are several out there that counter the 4 polls that show him clearly doing worse, it may cause me to re-think my position.

Trump is going to have real trouble winning this thing. The moderates by and large are not going to vote for him, and he needs more than the base. Look at Iowa for example. The independents and moderates by and large are not supporting him.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24360792-iowa-poll-trump-vote

Unlike you, I don't think Trump is at his floor. I think he has benefited greatly from being not entirely in the spotlight and being off twitter. It's similar to Joe living in his basement during the 2020. The less we see of him, the better his chances. When he's the candidate, and is the sole focus of the media's attention, watch him remind everyone why they said they could never vote for him again (including a lot of conservatives).

Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, and by my money, it won't start happening now. When your only hope of winning is the other candidate sucks more, you are in trouble.

Republicans have chosen poorly.

FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?

Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.

---

Source?

The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.

Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.

---

Polling doesn't show that.

MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.

---

You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.

Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.

Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.

Get ready to lose again.

---

I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....

And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.

This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.

And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....

---

This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.

---

I understand whiterock's point, as I do think there is a hard floor for Trump, whose sycophants would vote for him if he killed a family of 4. But like you, I don't think he's at his floor.

Oldbear83 said:

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More insults and false claims from Mothra.

Yet it's 'bad' when Trump does it.

Hmmm.

---

Let me know when you get around to finding evidence of that consensus.

whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Thursday morning at 1:00 a.m.:

Quote:

---

A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES MUST HAVE FULL IMMUNITY, WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIM/HER TO PROPERLY FUNCTION. ANY MISTAKE, EVEN IF WELL INTENDED, WOULD BE MET WITH ALMOST CERTAIN INDICTMENT BY THE OPPOSING PARTY AT TERM END. EVEN EVENTS THAT "CROSS THE LINE" MUST FALL UNDER TOTAL IMMUNITY, OR IT WILL BE YEARS OF TRAUMA TRYING TO DETERMINE GOOD FROM BAD. THERE MUST BE CERTAINTY. EXAMPLE: YOU CAN'T STOP POLICE FROM DOING THE JOB OF STRONG & EFFECTIVE CRIME PREVENTION BECAUSE YOU WANT TO GUARD AGAINST THE OCCASIONAL "ROGUE COP" OR "BAD APPLE." SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO LIVE WITH "GREAT BUT SLIGHTLY IMPERFECT." ALL PRESIDENTS MUST HAVE COMPLETE & TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY, OR THE AUTHORITY & DECISIVENESS OF A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE STRIPPED & GONE FOREVER. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE AN EASY DECISION. GOD BLESS THE SUPREME COURT!
Donald Trump Truth Social 12:59 AM EST 01/18/24

---

---

That's pretty much what I was taught in government class = our founders were wise enough to put in place checks & balances to ensure the justice system was not usurped by political vendettas (as it has been now by Democrats).

---

Unless you grew up in Germany in the 1930s, that's pretty much the opposite of what you were taught in government class. Total immunity for wrongdoing isn't what the Founders meant by checks and balances.

---

Geez. That's not even very good spin. We USED to teach that immunity from prosecution prevented a President from being hamstrung by constant litigation, freeing his hand to handle affairs of state on behalf of the American people (who elected him), and that the appropriate remedy for malfeasances was impeachment.
The beneficiary to the principle is not the President. It's the People, who do need a Chief Executive that can act on their behalf. If he/she doesn't, well......there's impeachment.

Your views are a menace to the Republicans.

---

FIFY

So Trump could assassinate his enemies, no court could touch him, and you think I'm the menace.

---

if he did that, he'd be impeached.
What more does the Republic need than that?

---

Impeachment is a political process with its own set of rules. The most important of which is unwritten -- you don't vote against your own party. Of the 43 Republican senators who voted in Trump's favor after J6, only seven expressed support on the merits. The result was based almost entirely on jurisdiction and procedure.

Think about what would really happen. Assuming Trump was smart enough not to pull the trigger himself, there would be some doubt. His followers would never accept a "mere accusation." They'd demand the highest standard of proof. Even if it were met, they'd never believe it. Conspiracy theories would abound. Legislators have already shown that they're terrified of Trump's base, and he'd do everything he could to stoke that fear. The outcome is far from obvious.

Mothra said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?

Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.

---

Source?

The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.

Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.

---

Polling doesn't show that.

MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.

---

You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.

Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.

Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.

Get ready to lose again.

---

I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....

And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.

This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.

And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....

---

This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.

---

I understand whiterock's point, as I do think there is a hard floor for Trump, whose sycophants would vote for him if he killed a family of 4. But like you, I don't think he's at his floor.

---

Definitely, I think his floor-ish is enough to get him the GOP nomination, but not nearly enough to win a General. Because with him as the nominee we will see record turnout, both for and against. He may crack 90m and lose. Dems will move heaven and earth to prevent Donald from getting into a seat of power again. (One of the reasons I am for Haley as she will not generate that response and still be as Conservative as Reagan or Trump in policy. Abortion is the only item I see a huge disparity.)

FLBear5630 said:

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Mothra said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Mothra said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?

Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.

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Source?

The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.

Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.

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Polling doesn't show that.

MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.

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You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.

Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.

Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.

Get ready to lose again.

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I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....

And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.

This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.

And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....

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This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.

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I understand whiterock's point, as I do think there is a hard floor for Trump, whose sycophants would vote for him if he killed a family of 4. But like you, I don't think he's at his floor.

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Definitely, I think his floor-ish is enough to get him the GOP nomination, but not nearly enough to win a General. Because with him as the nominee we will see record turnout, both for and against. He may crack 90m and lose. Dems will move heaven and earth to prevent Donald from getting into a seat of power again. (One of the reasons I am for Haley as she will not generate that response and still be as Conservative as Reagan or Trump in policy. Abortion is the only item I see a huge disparity.)

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Yup. That is exactly what will happen.

Welp...

...and it's outside of the margin of error.

As I said, fool's gold. SMDH.

New PA Poll: SP&R today releases its latest Pa poll testing general election for POTUS match up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump:

Biden, 46.8%
Trump, 39.3%
Not Sure, 7.6%
Other, 5.6%

Sample size 745 LV; Field Dates 1/15-1/21/24. MOE +/-3.7%. pic.twitter.com/WitJVf8Ijq

— SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) January 23, 2024

Mothra said:

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Welp...

...and it's outside of the margin of error.

As I said, fool's gold. SMDH.

New PA Poll: SP&R today releases its latest Pa poll testing general election for POTUS match up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump:

Biden, 46.8%
Trump, 39.3%
Not Sure, 7.6%
Other, 5.6%

Sample size 745 LV; Field Dates 1/15-1/21/24. MOE +/-3.7%. pic.twitter.com/WitJVf8Ijq

— SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) January 23, 2024

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https://www.politicspa.com/susquehanna-poll-clinton-47-trump-37/77606/

Dollar said:

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Mothra said:

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Welp...

...and it's outside of the margin of error.

As I said, fool's gold. SMDH.

New PA Poll: SP&R today releases its latest Pa poll testing general election for POTUS match up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump:

Biden, 46.8%
Trump, 39.3%
Not Sure, 7.6%
Other, 5.6%

Sample size 745 LV; Field Dates 1/15-1/21/24. MOE +/-3.7%. pic.twitter.com/WitJVf8Ijq

— SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) January 23, 2024

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https://www.politicspa.com/susquehanna-poll-clinton-47-trump-37/77606/

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Its one of the higher rated polls.

Their final 2016 poll had Clinton +1.8%, which was one of the more Trump-leaning polls, and was more Trump-leaning than Trump's and the RNC's internals.

Their final 2020 poll actually had Trump winning by 1.

Head to head polling isnt that accurate because there's going to be at least three options and probably four presidential candidates to choose from

If they polled with RFK and Stein as options, that would look different.

Doesnt mean Trump would win but its also no longer a must win. The additional 3 electorate votes in Texas and AZ change things on the must win map

So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.

The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.

So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?

4th and Inches said:

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Head to head polling isnt that accurate because there's going to be at least three options and probably four presidential candidates to choose from

If they polled with RFK and Stein as options, that would look different.

Doesnt mean Trump would win but its also no longer a must win. The additional 3 electorate votes in Texas and AZ change things on the must win map

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Yep, don't need PA. If he keeps the states that voted for him in 2020 and flip AZ, WI, and GA back to red, that gives him 272 EC Votes. Those 3 states also had the lowest margin of victory for Biden in 2020.

With that said, I haven't bothered to look at his polling in those 3 states.

Whiskey Pete said:

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So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.

The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.

So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?

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90% of the people on here are voting Trump. On this Board it is a non-issue. 8% may not vote and I would say less than 2% will go Biden. This is one of the most conservative Boards in the University world.

The question is can he win? Hell, will he even be on the ballot?

FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.

The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.

So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?

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90% of the people on here are voting Trump. On this Board it is a non-issue. 8% may not vote and I would say less than 2% will go Biden. This is one of the most conservative Boards in the University world.

The question is can he win? Hell, will he even be on the ballot?

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he can win if on ballot, whomever replaces him can also win..

FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.

The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.

So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?

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90% of the people on here are voting Trump. On this Board it is a non-issue. 8% may not vote and I would say less than 2% will go Biden. This is one of the most conservative Boards in the University world.

The question is can he win? Hell, will he even be on the ballot?

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With all due respect, It looks like we're going to be stuck with Trump as the nominee. So the question of "can he win" really doesn't matter. The real question, is will I stay at home and help Biden walk back into the White House or will I vote against the radical leftist progressive agenda that's hell bent on destroying this country through mental illness, drug addiction, fear, victimhood, disregard of constitutional rights, flooding America with illegal aliens and weaponizing the federal gov't against the citizens.

I'll take option #2 for $1,000 Alex

Whiskey Pete said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Head to head polling isnt that accurate because there's going to be at least three options and probably four presidential candidates to choose from

If they polled with RFK and Stein as options, that would look different.

Doesnt mean Trump would win but its also no longer a must win. The additional 3 electorate votes in Texas and AZ change things on the must win map

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Yep, don't need PA. If he keeps the states that voted for him in 2020 and flip AZ, WI, and GA back to red, that gives him 272 EC Votes. Those 3 states also had the lowest margin of victory for Biden in 2020.

With that said, I haven't bothered to look at his polling in those 3 states.

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That's a very tall order.

It ain't happening IMO. Republicans sealed their fate when they chose Trump.

Whiskey Pete said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.

The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.

So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?

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90% of the people on here are voting Trump. On this Board it is a non-issue. 8% may not vote and I would say less than 2% will go Biden. This is one of the most conservative Boards in the University world.

The question is can he win? Hell, will he even be on the ballot?

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With all due respect, It looks like we're going to be stuck with Trump as the nominee. So the question of "can he win" really doesn't matter. The real question, is will I stay at home and help Biden walk back into the White House or will I vote against the radical leftist progressive agenda that's hell bent on destroying this country through mental illness, drug addiction, fear, victimhood, disregard of constitutional rights, flooding America with illegal aliens and weaponizing the federal gov't against the citizens.

I'll take option #2 for $1,000 Alex

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I would bet that everyone on this string is going to vote. I would say it will come down 80% Trump and 20% (if that) Biden.

I am not worried about the Baylor people voting or who they vote for. I am worried about the other 99.95% of the population.

Mothra said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Head to head polling isnt that accurate because there's going to be at least three options and probably four presidential candidates to choose from

If they polled with RFK and Stein as options, that would look different.

Doesnt mean Trump would win but its also no longer a must win. The additional 3 electorate votes in Texas and AZ change things on the must win map

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Yep, don't need PA. If he keeps the states that voted for him in 2020 and flip AZ, WI, and GA back to red, that gives him 272 EC Votes. Those 3 states also had the lowest margin of victory for Biden in 2020.

With that said, I haven't bothered to look at his polling in those 3 states.

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That's a very tall order.

It ain't happening IMO. Republicans sealed their fate when they chose Trump.

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Not here to argue if he can win the general election or not.

FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.

The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.

So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?

---

90% of the people on here are voting Trump. On this Board it is a non-issue. 8% may not vote and I would say less than 2% will go Biden. This is one of the most conservative Boards in the University world.

The question is can he win? Hell, will he even be on the ballot?

---

With all due respect, It looks like we're going to be stuck with Trump as the nominee. So the question of "can he win" really doesn't matter. The real question, is will I stay at home and help Biden walk back into the White House or will I vote against the radical leftist progressive agenda that's hell bent on destroying this country through mental illness, drug addiction, fear, victimhood, disregard of constitutional rights, flooding America with illegal aliens and weaponizing the federal gov't against the citizens.

I'll take option #2 for $1,000 Alex

---

I would bet that everyone on this string is going to vote. I would say it will come down 80% Trump and 20% (if that) Biden.

I am not worried about the Baylor people voting or who they vote for. I am worried about the other 99.95% of the population.

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Can't worry about the other people do. But if you do, you can hit social media and make a case for why people should not vote for Joe Biden

The Democratic platform - Trump is Hitler on Steroids on top of a nuclear weapon on top of Armageddon!!!!

Rachel @Maddow describing Trump's dictator-worshiping pitch to voters: "If you pick me, that'll be the end of politics, and you won't have to deal with politics anymore. You won't have to deal with contested elections, you won't have to deal with contests or divisions when it… pic.twitter.com/DuJxENLOJJ

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) January 23, 2024

Jack Bauer said:

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The Democratic platform - Trump is Hitler on Steroids on top of a nuclear weapon on top of Armageddon!!!!

Rachel @Maddow describing Trump's dictator-worshiping pitch to voters: "If you pick me, that'll be the end of politics, and you won't have to deal with politics anymore. You won't have to deal with contested elections, you won't have to deal with contests or divisions when it… pic.twitter.com/DuJxENLOJJ

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) January 23, 2024

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Brian Stelter is a potato

Whiskey Pete said:

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So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.

The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.

So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?

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I would never vote for that miserable human. Under no circumstances. If his is yall R nominee, I'm sitting this one out. I will vote Haley in the primary.

FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.


The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.

So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?

---

90% of the people on here are voting Trump. On this Board it is a non-issue. 8% may not vote and I would say less than 2% will go Biden. This is one of the most conservative Boards in the University world.

The question is can he win? Hell, will he even be on the ballot?

---

With all due respect, It looks like we're going to be stuck with Trump as the nominee. So the question of "can he win" really doesn't matter. The real question, is will I stay at home and help Biden walk back into the White House or will I vote against the radical leftist progressive agenda that's hell bent on destroying this country through mental illness, drug addiction, fear, victimhood, disregard of constitutional rights, flooding America with illegal aliens and weaponizing the federal gov't against the citizens.

I'll take option #2 for $1,000 Alex

---

I would bet that everyone on this string is going to vote. I would say it will come down 80% Trump and 20% (if that) Biden.

I am not worried about the Baylor people voting or who they vote for. I am worried about the other 99.95% of the population.

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Never Trump
Never Biden
Maybe No Names

J.R. said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.

The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.

So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?

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I would never vote for that miserable human. Under no circumstances. If his is yall R nominee, I'm sitting this one out. I will vote Haley in the primary.

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she will drop out before you have the chance to vote

FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Mothra said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?

Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.

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Source?

The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.

Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.

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Polling doesn't show that.

MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.

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You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.

Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.

Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.

Get ready to lose again.

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I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....

And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.

This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.

And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....

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This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.

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nah, he's definitely at his floor. Now, if you want to suggest he also has a low ceiling....that is certainly true in the sense it's unlikely he will catch fire and win 49 states like Reagan. Even winning the popular vote might be out of reach. That is cause for concern. But you have to keep going down that line of analysis and look at his opponent, who also has a low ceiling. And he also has a softer floor. Terrible record, advancing senility, and not at all vetted in a national election as Trump has been (meaning, there's more for voters to discover and its all bad...nothing good to find).

Trump's performance in mid-terms and generals is somewhat better than his detractors are willing to admit. Yes, we lost stuff (but we also gained stuff, too).

Overall, though, when you have two highly unlikeable major party candidates, you tend to have lower overall turnout. Voters who are uninspired by the offering are far more likely to stay home. So it is possible that one of them, even Trump, could pass the 50% margin....+50% of the electorate that showed up.