Only if all those Biden voters show up. They won't.FLBear5630 said:But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make upWhiskey Pete said:But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.Redbrickbear said:I will say this until I can't say it anymore.
— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024
Partisanship is the master identity.
Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.
Except for Independents!
They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.
That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg
Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.
2024
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Here's what your campaign spin conveniently ignores: All that dirt on Trump and he increased his vote totals from 2016 to 2020. Significantly. Hasn't harmed his support in the party, either. He's far outpacing his 2016 effort. And in more polls than not, he's currently LEADING his general election opponent. Voters know all that, and are sticking with him anyway. There's literally nothing left to throw at him. Dems are making it up now, even engaging in authoritarian usurpation of the judiciary to try to stop him. Dems have thrown so much so often that they've landed in Chicken Little territory = people are starting to tune the neverTrump nonsense out (because virtually all of it has proven to be BS).Mothra said:Again, I would like to know what you mean by flawed. A guy under multiple indictments, who regularly fabricates stories and pays off porn stars he had sex with, and who has been accused of sexual assault is a pretty rotten character. Your claim was he is no more flawed than other candidates (Haley, DeSantis). What skeletons do DeSantis and Haley have in their closets that are in any way comparable?whiterock said:He's no worse than his general election opponent. Or his predecessor. Or any number of current electeds at state and federal level.Mothra said:whiterock said:
Solid take. Except for the next to last sentence. Trump isn't significantly more flawed than anyone here. Haley, his likely VP choice, is flawed as well.Ron DeSantis is the most effective governor in the country, turned a swing-state into a red state, and uniquely marries Donald Trump's fighting spirit with a discipline and focus on effective governing that Trump doesn't have. He would be a terrific president. Better than we…
— Jeremy Boreing (@JeremyDBoreing) January 21, 2024
Depends on what you mean by flawed. If a self aggrandizing, petty as a 6th grader blowhard whose had multiple affairs, has been accused of sexual assault, has had money judgments assessed against him on multiple occasions, has lied repeatedly to the American public, has broken numerous campaign promises, has been indicted on multiple felony counts, and attempted to obstruct the orderly transfer of power isn't more flawed than other Republican candidates, Id like to know what you mean by that term.
All you have to do to find peace is quit holding your own to a higher standard than the other guys and just look at policies.
Not nearly so many voters know as much about all the Biden dirt (and the Congressional impeachment investigations have not even started).
And voters don't know hardly anything about the dirt on Haley and DeSantis. Those of us who've been around know about Haley's rumored affairs. They were fodder for her elections in SC. I did not mention the details. Just noted she had been thru the wringer in SC and held up like leather clad iron. Tough lady. But the sordid details will come up again if she's the nominee. I'm not aware of anything like that on RDS, but most normal people do have things in their past that could be portrayed in damaging fashion. You can bet, given the picture-book family situation he currently has, that they would try to destroy that earnestly. High school ass-pinching or worse.
That's the risk of the new, fresh face. Yeah, maybe great. But the surprises can be far more painful than with the scarred old veteran. Nothing much phases them, or their voters. They've already fought a thousand fights. Voters don't care about the old stuff much. The new stuff, not so much....
and everything you said there applies to Biden, who is in an even worse situation with no possible avenue for improvement. All he can do is savage his opponent, who is nearly immune to such at this point....FLBear5630 said:Definitely, I think his floor-ish is enough to get him the GOP nomination, but not nearly enough to win a General. Because with him as the nominee we will see record turnout, both for and against. He may crack 90m and lose. Dems will move heaven and earth to prevent Donald from getting into a seat of power again. (One of the reasons I am for Haley as she will not generate that response and still be as Conservative as Reagan or Trump in policy. Abortion is the only item I see a huge disparity.)Mothra said:I understand whiterock's point, as I do think there is a hard floor for Trump, whose sycophants would vote for him if he killed a family of 4. But like you, I don't think he's at his floor.FLBear5630 said:This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.whiterock said:I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....Mothra said:Doc Holliday said:Polling doesn't show that.Mothra said:Source?Doc Holliday said:
Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?
Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.
The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.
Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.
MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.
You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.
Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.
Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.
Get ready to lose again.
And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.
This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.
And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....
Susquehanna is a PA polling firm, typically considered gold standard on PA stuff.sombear said:Its one of the higher rated polls.Dollar said:https://www.politicspa.com/susquehanna-poll-clinton-47-trump-37/77606/Mothra said:
Welp...
...and it's outside of the margin of error.
As I said, fool's gold. SMDH.New PA Poll: SP&R today releases its latest Pa poll testing general election for POTUS match up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump:
— SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) January 23, 2024
Biden, 46.8%
Trump, 39.3%
Not Sure, 7.6%
Other, 5.6%
Sample size 745 LV; Field Dates 1/15-1/21/24. MOE +/-3.7%. pic.twitter.com/WitJVf8Ijq
Their final 2016 poll had Clinton +1.8%, which was one of the more Trump-leaning polls, and was more Trump-leaning than Trump's and the RNC's internals.
Their final 2020 poll actually had Trump winning by 1.
PA has in most polls been firmly blue and not really a swing state at this time.
Not only have I not ignored it, I've regularly commented that Trump could kill a family of 4 and still win the nomination. So - once again - you will get no disagreement from me that Trump's support won't wane because of his severe character and personality flaws.whiterock said:Here's what your campaign spin conveniently ignores: All that dirt on Trump and he increased his vote totals from 2016 to 2020. Significantly. Hasn't harmed his support in the party, either. He's far outpacing his 2016 effort. And in more polls than not, he's currently LEADING his general election opponent. Voters know all that, and are sticking with him anyway. There's literally nothing left to throw at him. Dems are making it up now, even engaging in authoritarian usurpation of the judiciary to try to stop him. Dems have thrown so much so often that they've landed in Chicken Little territory = people are starting to tune the neverTrump nonsense out (because virtually all of it has proven to be BS).Mothra said:Again, I would like to know what you mean by flawed. A guy under multiple indictments, who regularly fabricates stories and pays off porn stars he had sex with, and who has been accused of sexual assault is a pretty rotten character. Your claim was he is no more flawed than other candidates (Haley, DeSantis). What skeletons do DeSantis and Haley have in their closets that are in any way comparable?whiterock said:He's no worse than his general election opponent. Or his predecessor. Or any number of current electeds at state and federal level.Mothra said:whiterock said:
Solid take. Except for the next to last sentence. Trump isn't significantly more flawed than anyone here. Haley, his likely VP choice, is flawed as well.Ron DeSantis is the most effective governor in the country, turned a swing-state into a red state, and uniquely marries Donald Trump's fighting spirit with a discipline and focus on effective governing that Trump doesn't have. He would be a terrific president. Better than we…
— Jeremy Boreing (@JeremyDBoreing) January 21, 2024
Depends on what you mean by flawed. If a self aggrandizing, petty as a 6th grader blowhard whose had multiple affairs, has been accused of sexual assault, has had money judgments assessed against him on multiple occasions, has lied repeatedly to the American public, has broken numerous campaign promises, has been indicted on multiple felony counts, and attempted to obstruct the orderly transfer of power isn't more flawed than other Republican candidates, Id like to know what you mean by that term.
All you have to do to find peace is quit holding your own to a higher standard than the other guys and just look at policies.
Not nearly so many voters know as much about all the Biden dirt (and the Congressional impeachment investigations have not even started).
And voters don't know hardly anything about the dirt on Haley and DeSantis. Those of us who've been around know about Haley's rumored affairs. They were fodder for her elections in SC. I did not mention the details. Just noted she had been thru the wringer in SC and held up like leather clad iron. Tough lady. But the sordid details will come up again if she's the nominee. I'm not aware of anything like that on RDS, but most normal people do have things in their past that could be portrayed in damaging fashion. You can bet, given the picture-book family situation he currently has, that they would try to destroy that earnestly. High school ass-pinching or worse.
That's the risk of the new, fresh face. Yeah, maybe great. But the surprises can be far more painful than with the scarred old veteran. Nothing much phases them, or their voters. They've already fought a thousand fights. Voters don't care about the old stuff much. The new stuff, not so much....
Instead, I was commenting on your position that he is no more flawed than Haley and DeSantis, to which I would submit it depends on what you mean by flawed. If by flawed you mean he can commit any number of sins and the sycophants and bumpkins will continue to support his dumb ass, absolutely. But if you mean he has no more skeletons in his closet than Haley and DeSantis, I beg to differ. Trump is a POS human being. It would be hard to find a guy with worse character and personality flaws than Trump.
AZ and GA look for Trump like that Susquehanna poll looks for BIden. WI is razor close, lean blue. NV is razor close, lean red.Whiskey Pete said:Yep, don't need PA. If he keeps the states that voted for him in 2020 and flip AZ, WI, and GA back to red, that gives him 272 EC Votes. Those 3 states also had the lowest margin of victory for Biden in 2020.4th and Inches said:
Head to head polling isnt that accurate because there's going to be at least three options and probably four presidential candidates to choose from
If they polled with RFK and Stein as options, that would look different.
Doesnt mean Trump would win but its also no longer a must win. The additional 3 electorate votes in Texas and AZ change things on the must win map
With that said, I haven't bothered to look at his polling in those 3 states.
For now....
that's about 5 points behind where Obama was at this point in the cycle....4th and Inches said:he can win if on ballot, whomever replaces him can also win..FLBear5630 said:90% of the people on here are voting Trump. On this Board it is a non-issue. 8% may not vote and I would say less than 2% will go Biden. This is one of the most conservative Boards in the University world.Whiskey Pete said:
So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.
The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.
So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?
The question is can he win? Hell, will he even be on the ballot?
Trump is polling better than he ever has. He can undoubtedly go lower, as we have seen. So no, he's not at his floor at this time.whiterock said:nah, he's definitely at his floor. Now, if you want to suggest he also has a low ceiling....that is certainly true in the sense it's unlikely he will catch fire and win 49 states like Reagan. Even winning the popular vote might be out of reach. That is cause for concern. But you have to keep going down that line of analysis and look at his opponent, who also has a low ceiling. And he also has a softer floor. Terrible record, advancing senility, and not at all vetted in a national election as Trump has been (meaning, there's more for voters to discover and its all bad...nothing good to find).FLBear5630 said:This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.whiterock said:I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....Mothra said:Doc Holliday said:Polling doesn't show that.Mothra said:Source?Doc Holliday said:
Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?
Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.
The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.
Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.
MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.
You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.
Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.
Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.
Get ready to lose again.
And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.
This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.
And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....
Trump's performance in mid-terms and generals is somewhat better than his detractors are willing to admit. Yes, we lost stuff (but we also gained stuff, too).
Overall, though, when you have two highly unlikeable major party candidates, you tend to have lower overall turnout. Voters who are uninspired by the offering are far more likely to stay home. So it is possible that one of them, even Trump, could pass the 50% margin....+50% of the electorate that showed up.
the Sic'em 365 world could be expected to vote Biden. It's a college educated crowd, which is, nationwide, 2-1 blue. Granted this is the bible belt & all that, but......FLBear5630 said:I would bet that everyone on this string is going to vote. I would say it will come down 80% Trump and 20% (if that) Biden.Whiskey Pete said:With all due respect, It looks like we're going to be stuck with Trump as the nominee. So the question of "can he win" really doesn't matter. The real question, is will I stay at home and help Biden walk back into the White House or will I vote against the radical leftist progressive agenda that's hell bent on destroying this country through mental illness, drug addiction, fear, victimhood, disregard of constitutional rights, flooding America with illegal aliens and weaponizing the federal gov't against the citizens.FLBear5630 said:90% of the people on here are voting Trump. On this Board it is a non-issue. 8% may not vote and I would say less than 2% will go Biden. This is one of the most conservative Boards in the University world.Whiskey Pete said:
So here's the deal. We can talk until we're blue in the face about whether Trump can or definitely can't when a general election.
The fact of the matter is that is he going to win enough delegates to win the primary.
So the question is, are you going vote for Trump or let a progressive liberal democrat back into the White House and continue the destruction of our country?
The question is can he win? Hell, will he even be on the ballot?
I'll take option #2 for $1,000 Alex
I am not worried about the Baylor people voting or who they vote for. I am worried about the other 99.95% of the population.
Part of the reason Trump gets such grief here is because of the demographic of the board itself. Just not a Trump-friendly part of the electorate.
I predicted the electability issue would be a fools errand in the GOP primary, and it turned out to be exactly that.4th and Inches said:Brian Stelter is a potatoJack Bauer said:
The Democratic platform - Trump is Hitler on Steroids on top of a nuclear weapon on top of Armageddon!!!!Rachel @Maddow describing Trump's dictator-worshiping pitch to voters: "If you pick me, that'll be the end of politics, and you won't have to deal with politics anymore. You won't have to deal with contested elections, you won't have to deal with contests or divisions when it… pic.twitter.com/DuJxENLOJJ
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) January 23, 2024
I suspect that the "threat to the Republic" issue is going to be a fool's errand for the Dems in the general. It runs too counter to reality = Trump had four years to overthow democracy, yet did not of the authoritarian BS Democrats have done and walked out of the Oval Office unescorted as prescribed by law.
Unless it's Trump against Biden, in which case you apparently have record high turnout.whiterock said:Overall, though, when you have two highly unlikeable major party candidates, you tend to have lower overall turnout.FLBear5630 said:This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.whiterock said:I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....Mothra said:Doc Holliday said:Polling doesn't show that.Mothra said:Source?Doc Holliday said:
Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?
Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.
The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.
Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.
MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.
You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.
Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.
Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.
Get ready to lose again.
And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.
This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.
And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....
well, that's certainly what the neverTrumpers say, but is that really the biggest concern of voters?Sam Lowry said:Unless it's Trump against Biden, in which case you apparently have record high turnout.whiterock said:Overall, though, when you have two highly unlikeable major party candidates, you tend to have lower overall turnout.FLBear5630 said:This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.whiterock said:I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....Mothra said:Doc Holliday said:Polling doesn't show that.Mothra said:Source?Doc Holliday said:
Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?
Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.
The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.
Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.
MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.
You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.
Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.
Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.
Get ready to lose again.
And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.
This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.
And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....
I seriously cannot believe CNN actually aired this!!! 👀🔥
— Steve 🇺🇸 (@SteveLovesAmmo) January 23, 2024
Rep. Dean Phillips on meeting MAGA for the first time.
“I gotta tell you guys, I went to a Donald Trump rally a couple of nights ago. I’ve never been to one. I had an event across the street. I saw the line of people… pic.twitter.com/y0GfCQnKRs
The Dems showed up for Haley in NH tonight. Exit polls revealed that 53% of the people voting in the Republican primary weren't Republican.
So a +3 Democrat demographic in a blue state will go by 6-10pts for Donald Trump.Realitybites said:
The Dems showed up for Haley in NH tonight. Exit polls revealed that 53% of the people voting in the Republican primary weren't Republican.
Would anyone care to speculate how that might cast doubts on the neverTrumper argument that Trump can't win independents, inspires Dems to record turnout, etc......
Because, you know, now that Trump is the nominee, it will be easy to sweep the board in 2024
BREAKING: Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit caught on secret recording trying to bribe Kari Lake not to run for the Senate.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 23, 2024
Holy s***!
"There are very powerful people who want to keep you out," he said.
At one point during the secret recording, Lake was asked to name… pic.twitter.com/9r1DoDzITD
whiterock said:nah, he's definitely at his floor. Now, if you want to suggest he also has a low ceiling....that is certainly true in the sense it's unlikely he will catch fire and win 49 states like Reagan. Even winning the popular vote might be out of reach. That is cause for concern. But you have to keep going down that line of analysis and look at his opponent, who also has a low ceiling. And he also has a softer floor. Terrible record, advancing senility, and not at all vetted in a national election as Trump has been (meaning, there's more for voters to discover and its all bad...nothing good to find).FLBear5630 said:This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.whiterock said:I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....Mothra said:Doc Holliday said:Polling doesn't show that.Mothra said:Source?Doc Holliday said:
Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?
Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.
The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.
Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.
MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.
You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.
Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.
Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.
Get ready to lose again.
And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.
This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.
And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....
Trump's performance in mid-terms and generals is somewhat better than his detractors are willing to admit. Yes, we lost stuff (but we also gained stuff, too).
Overall, though, when you have two highly unlikeable major party candidates, you tend to have lower overall turnout. Voters who are uninspired by the offering are far more likely to stay home. So it is possible that one of them, even Trump, could pass the 50% margin....+50% of the electorate that showed up.
Question will be what level of turnout does Trump provoke. But, you have been right on primaries, so who am I to argue.
As someone who's been on this board for years, that's about the only thing he's been right on in his predictions the last 4 years.FLBear5630 said:whiterock said:nah, he's definitely at his floor. Now, if you want to suggest he also has a low ceiling....that is certainly true in the sense it's unlikely he will catch fire and win 49 states like Reagan. Even winning the popular vote might be out of reach. That is cause for concern. But you have to keep going down that line of analysis and look at his opponent, who also has a low ceiling. And he also has a softer floor. Terrible record, advancing senility, and not at all vetted in a national election as Trump has been (meaning, there's more for voters to discover and its all bad...nothing good to find).FLBear5630 said:This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.whiterock said:I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....Mothra said:Doc Holliday said:Polling doesn't show that.Mothra said:Source?Doc Holliday said:
Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?
Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.
The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.
Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.
MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.
You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.
Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.
Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.
Get ready to lose again.
And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.
This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.
And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....
Trump's performance in mid-terms and generals is somewhat better than his detractors are willing to admit. Yes, we lost stuff (but we also gained stuff, too).
Overall, though, when you have two highly unlikeable major party candidates, you tend to have lower overall turnout. Voters who are uninspired by the offering are far more likely to stay home. So it is possible that one of them, even Trump, could pass the 50% margin....+50% of the electorate that showed up.
Question will be what level of turnout does Trump provoke. But, you have been right on primaries, so who am I to argue.
He also predicted a Trump win in 2020, and a red wave in 2022, just FYI.
Anyone paying attention knew MAGA was too big an obstacle to overcome. I haven't been surprised yet about anything that's happened in the primaries. I predicted a Trump nom months ago, and have been predicting a Dem win in the general since Trump threw his name in the hat. Mark my words - this election is going to end just like the last.
When it comes down to a choice between Biden and Trump, the independents and Dems will turn out in droves to support the unpopular Democrat candidate.
2024 will come down to turnout.
Watch for voter enthusiasm, not media orgasms.
Watch for voter enthusiasm, not media orgasms.
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
You need a better outlook on life, KB.KaiBear said:
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
What he is describing is the fundamental difference between conservatives (for the most part, decent, respectful, reasonable, law-abiding citizens) and liberals (generally, intolerant, mean, and vile people).whiterock said:well, that's certainly what the neverTrumpers say, but is that really the biggest concern of voters?Sam Lowry said:Unless it's Trump against Biden, in which case you apparently have record high turnout.whiterock said:Overall, though, when you have two highly unlikeable major party candidates, you tend to have lower overall turnout.FLBear5630 said:This is the point we disagree. Is Trump at his floor or ceiling? He will win the GOP nomination, that looks certain. Just don't see how he is climbing from there very much, maybe a little. But, he has never shown well in the General since his 2016 win. 2018, 2020, and 2022 Trump has not been a good General Election Bell Cow.whiterock said:I've posted hundreds of polling outcomes on this very thread. Some show exactly what you describe, although within that particular subset nearly all show the differences within the margin of error. Granted, the margin of victory in a Presidential election is very often within the margin of error, so we cannot just write off the differences as irrelevant. But neither can we take those differences as dispositive. Notably, there are also quite a number of polls showing no difference, or Trump actually running better. (RDS more recent numbers in particular have softened and typically trail Haley.) So you are over-bidding your hand here....Mothra said:Doc Holliday said:Polling doesn't show that.Mothra said:Source?Doc Holliday said:
Do some of yall not realize that Trump lost the presidency by 22,500 votes across 3 states combined?
Every candidate running is going to get about 10M less votes than Trump did in 2020. Nobody stands a chance against Democrats other than Trump right now. You may not like it, but it's the truth of the situation.
The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite.
Trump hasn't won anything since 2016, when he caught lightning in a bottle. Stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.
MAGA, libertarians and republicans who don't vote for establishment candidates will not vote for an establishment candidate like Haley. She will not garner millions of their votes.
You serious, Clark? Are you actually reading this thread? I just posted 4 recent polls a couple of pages ago that show just that. Trump is polling worse than they are against Biden.
Sorry, but that is exactly what the polls show, Trumpster. DeSantis and Haley are both polling better than Trump against Biden.
Repubs have to win more than just MAGA and Republicans to win a general. 2016 and 2020 both proved that.
Get ready to lose again.
And then we get to softer but no less relevant considerations, chief among them the issues of ceilings and floors. Trump is already AT his floor, because he is vetted, already put thru a max-level gauntlet. We know pretty much everything there is to know about him. And attitudes about him are pretty much baked in. Will be impossible to change his likeability numbers much. Same cannot be said about RDS or Haley, and the latter has some dirt which has largely not been aired in the primary but which will be in the general. All of that is to say, Haley's floor is soft. Her numbers can (and likely would) be driven downward in a general onslaught.
This is going to be (as I've said many times in this thread and others) an election between to enormous *******s, each with tremendously high negatives. Many, many millions of people are going to hold their nose and vote for someone they really don't like very much. In such a scenario, the election will likely turn on record in office. Who best to fix the mess. Trump by any reasonable standard has a clear edge.
And, again, the floor. Trump cannot get any more unlikeable. His support is AT its floor.
Same cannot be said for Biden....I seriously cannot believe CNN actually aired this!!! 👀🔥
— Steve 🇺🇸 (@SteveLovesAmmo) January 23, 2024
Rep. Dean Phillips on meeting MAGA for the first time.
“I gotta tell you guys, I went to a Donald Trump rally a couple of nights ago. I’ve never been to one. I had an event across the street. I saw the line of people… pic.twitter.com/y0GfCQnKRs
Saw a video a few years ago of a guy who conducted an experiment. Went to a Trump rally dressed in Biden/BLM garb, and went to a Biden rally dressed in MAGA garb. Guess which group accepted him into the group and tried to change his mind, and which group physically assaulted him?
Yep. the left has descended into authoritarianism, completely dehumanizing their political opponents, to neverTrumper applause…..
Dammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm Charles 😎👀@cvpayne
— 🇺🇲Salty Texan (@texan_maga) January 24, 2024
If you don't watch anything else tonight, watch this. He's 💯 pic.twitter.com/9ekdSrQxFG
KaiBear said:
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
I fear you are right. They are not going to allow Trump to win. Hell, they may not allow him to be on the ballot if the court cases go their way.
I see Trump getting 90 million and losing. They will harvest, drop box, water main break, and outright collect every vote possible. No fraud, all legit people, just illegitimately collected just like 2020.
Or, I will be wrong and Trump will ride a Biden wave in to office. If he does, I just hope he governs and ignores the Dems. Not yet drawn into four years of fighting. I was better off under Trump, but will they let him?
Oldbear83 said:You need a better outlook on life, KB.KaiBear said:
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
Currently residing in a beach front resort in Jupiter Florida.
Drinking my 2nd cup of coffee while watching the waves roll by.
Tomorrow going to Boca Raton for 5 days of house hunting ( wife wants a winter place in Florida within 5 months ) .
So my outlook is reasonably ok.
But what's coming down the road should be obvious to anyone with eyes.
And it's going to be an unmitigated disaster.
You of all people should know this happens all the time in politics.whiterock said:
Because, you know, now that Trump is the nominee, it will be easy to sweep the board in 2024BREAKING: Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit caught on secret recording trying to bribe Kari Lake not to run for the Senate.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 23, 2024
Holy s***!
"There are very powerful people who want to keep you out," he said.
At one point during the secret recording, Lake was asked to name… pic.twitter.com/9r1DoDzITD
And I would gladly contribute to her stepping aside. She is a nutjob, who ran one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen and lost the most winnable race in the Country.
Yup.sombear said:You of all people should know this happens all the time in politics.whiterock said:
Because, you know, now that Trump is the nominee, it will be easy to sweep the board in 2024BREAKING: Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit caught on secret recording trying to bribe Kari Lake not to run for the Senate.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 23, 2024
Holy s***!
"There are very powerful people who want to keep you out," he said.
At one point during the secret recording, Lake was asked to name… pic.twitter.com/9r1DoDzITD
And I would gladly contribute to her stepping aside. She is a nutjob, who ran one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen and lost the most winnable race in the Country.
The idea that these MAGA retreads are any real threats to win elections boggles my minds.
Been there, done that. Why should it be different the 2nd, 3rd or 4th time around?
Sounds like the Biden economy has been berry berry good to you! (In my best Garrett Morris voice). Why change?KaiBear said:Oldbear83 said:You need a better outlook on life, KB.KaiBear said:
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
But what's coming down the road should be obvious to anyone with eyes.
And it's going to be an unmitigated disaster.
The last three years have been an unmitigated disaster for most of us.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"
-- Barack Obama
-- Barack Obama
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:Sounds like the Biden economy has been berry berry good to you! (In my best Garrett Morris voice). Why change?KaiBear said:Oldbear83 said:You need a better outlook on life, KB.KaiBear said:
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
But what's coming down the road should be obvious to anyone with eyes.
And it's going to be an unmitigated disaster.
The last three years have been an unmitigated disaster for most of us.
Been lucky.
This Florida gig is dumb. Going to be a money loser very quickly.
But my wife has certainly earned the right to make the play.
Please raise a glass to the dearly departed...
— Lafayette Lee (@Partisan_O) January 24, 2024
🥃 https://t.co/cqwQL7UaHg
I think you are ignoring a large number of salient facts, but enjoy Florida and all that comes with it.KaiBear said:Oldbear83 said:You need a better outlook on life, KB.KaiBear said:
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
Currently residing in a beach front resort in Jupiter Florida.
Drinking my 2nd cup of coffee while watching the waves roll by.
Tomorrow going to Boca Raton for 5 days of house hunting ( wife wants a winter place in Florida within 5 months ) .
So my outlook is reasonably ok.
But what's coming down the road should be obvious to anyone with eyes.
And it's going to be an unmitigated disaster.
Oldbear83 said:I think you are ignoring a large number of salient facts, but enjoy Florida and all that comes with it.KaiBear said:Oldbear83 said:You need a better outlook on life, KB.KaiBear said:
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
Currently residing in a beach front resort in Jupiter Florida.
Drinking my 2nd cup of coffee while watching the waves roll by.
Tomorrow going to Boca Raton for 5 days of house hunting ( wife wants a winter place in Florida within 5 months ) .
So my outlook is reasonably ok.
But what's coming down the road should be obvious to anyone with eyes.
And it's going to be an unmitigated disaster.
Give salient facts that mitigate the dangers involved caring for an additional 2-3 million illegals every year.
Salient facts regarding a 32 trillion dollar federal deficit.
Salient facts for the political weaponization of the FBI and DOJ
Salient facts for the opioid crisis, for the homeless situation and mental health crisis.
Salient facts for the decline in our military preparedness.
Salient facts that mitigate our inflationary spiral.
Florida is ok. Been here several times.
Maui is far better .
Maui is - sadly - still recovering from the wildfires from last yearKaiBear said:Oldbear83 said:I think you are ignoring a large number of salient facts, but enjoy Florida and all that comes with it.KaiBear said:Oldbear83 said:You need a better outlook on life, KB.KaiBear said:
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
Currently residing in a beach front resort in Jupiter Florida.
Drinking my 2nd cup of coffee while watching the waves roll by.
Tomorrow going to Boca Raton for 5 days of house hunting ( wife wants a winter place in Florida within 5 months ) .
So my outlook is reasonably ok.
But what's coming down the road should be obvious to anyone with eyes.
And it's going to be an unmitigated disaster.
Give salient facts that mitigate the dangers involved caring for an additional 2-3 million illegals every year.
Salient facts regarding a 32 trillion dollar federal deficit.
Salient facts for the political weaponization of the FBI and DOJ
Salient facts for the opioid crisis, for the homeless situation and mental health crisis.
Salient facts for the decline in our military preparedness.
Salient facts that mitigate our inflationary spiral.
Florida is ok. Been here several times.
Maui is far better .
The other things you mentioned are, if anything, detriments to the Biden campaign. He might have been able to leave the border open through last summer, then pivot and introduce a sound policy after most of the damage was done, but - being Biden - his inability to understand the optics of his policies has glued the illegals invasion to Joe as a liability.
But here are the salient facts:
1. Trump has been growing stronger in poll support since last summer, while Biden has weakened. This matters because Trump trailed in the 2020 polls pretty much all year, and despite trailing throughout 2016 Trump managed to win. A steady poll lead suggests Trump is in his best electoral position of the three campaigns.
2. The polls show Trump gaining strength among independents, especially minorities. The significance of this motion in support at the least suggests a lot of Black and Hispanic voters may stay home, depriving Biden of critical support in key states
3. 'Revenge' elections generally go the way of the challenger, except for Stevenson's rematch against Eisenhower. Jefferson's win in 1800, Jackson's 1828 win, and Cleveland's win in 1892 all demonstrate this trend.
4. In 2020 Biden was able to run against Trump's image and record, while selling his own as a stable, trustworthy alternative. Biden's record as President is likely to hurt him more than Trump's personality will cost him, in 2024.
5. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza appears to be out of control and with no resolution in sight, a call-back to Biden's failure in Afghanistan. If Trump makes his statements carefully, he can remind voters that no wars started during Trump's time as President, which will be attractive to moderate voters.
Oldbear83 said:Maui is - sadly - still recovering from the wildfires from last yearKaiBear said:Oldbear83 said:I think you are ignoring a large number of salient facts, but enjoy Florida and all that comes with it.KaiBear said:Oldbear83 said:You need a better outlook on life, KB.KaiBear said:
The 2024 election will fundamentally be a repeat of 2020.
Only Biden will win be a wider margin this go round.
Republicans deserve what's coming ; but the American people don't.
Currently residing in a beach front resort in Jupiter Florida.
Drinking my 2nd cup of coffee while watching the waves roll by.
Tomorrow going to Boca Raton for 5 days of house hunting ( wife wants a winter place in Florida within 5 months ) .
So my outlook is reasonably ok.
But what's coming down the road should be obvious to anyone with eyes.
And it's going to be an unmitigated disaster.
Give salient facts that mitigate the dangers involved caring for an additional 2-3 million illegals every year.
Salient facts regarding a 32 trillion dollar federal deficit.
Salient facts for the political weaponization of the FBI and DOJ
Salient facts for the opioid crisis, for the homeless situation and mental health crisis.
Salient facts for the decline in our military preparedness.
Salient facts that mitigate our inflationary spiral.
Florida is ok. Been here several times.
Maui is far better .
The other things you mentioned are, if anything, detriments to the Biden campaign. He might have been able to leave the border open through last summer, then pivot and introduce a sound policy after most of the damage was done, but - being Biden - his inability to understand the optics of his policies has glued the illegals invasion to Joe as a liability.
But here are the salient facts:
1. Trump has been growing stronger in poll support since last summer, while Biden has weakened. This matters because Trump trailed in the 2020 polls pretty much all year, and despite trailing throughout 2016 Trump managed to win. A steady poll lead suggests Trump is in his best electoral position of the three campaigns.
2. The polls show Trump gaining strength among independents, especially minorities. The significance of this motion in support at the least suggests a lot of Black and Hispanic voters may stay home, depriving Biden of critical support in key states
3. 'Revenge' elections generally go the way of the challenger, except for Stevenson's rematch against Eisenhower. Jefferson's win in 1800, Jackson's 1828 win, and Cleveland's win in 1892 all demonstrate this trend.
4. In 2020 Biden was able to run against Trump's image and record, while selling his own as a stable, trustworthy alternative. Biden's record as President is likely to hurt him more than Trump's personality will cost him, in 2024.
5. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza appears to be out of control and with no resolution in sight, a call-back to Biden's failure in Afghanistan. If Trump makes his statements carefully, he can remind voters that no wars started during Trump's time as President, which will be attractive to moderate voters.
Lahaina is only a small part of Maui.
The rest of the island including the best beach areas are still very attractive.
You are basing all your salient 'facts' on the electability of Donald Trump.
A man under several felony indictments.
If he is found guilty on ANY of the charges Trumps slim odds of becoming president drops to zero.
You speak as if those indictments were not political and malicious in character.
Why do you suppose Trump is gaining support when those jackals go after him?
Or do you, like the Washington Post and New York Times, assume Trump is guilty because that's what you want to be the case?
And again, if Trump is convicted, you can be certain the appeal will delay enforcement until after the election.
Why do you suppose Trump is gaining support when those jackals go after him?
Or do you, like the Washington Post and New York Times, assume Trump is guilty because that's what you want to be the case?
And again, if Trump is convicted, you can be certain the appeal will delay enforcement until after the election.