FLBear5630 said:Stop with the fraud. He lost. Not one court has found that the election was stolen. You are usually heavy on data. There is no fraud until it is proven. Same with Dems in 2016 and all the tampering, October surprise and popular vote crap. She lost. Donald lost.whiterock said:you badly mis-analyze the fraud issue. A good machine in 5-6 major US cities can easily decide a close election, and did in 2020.FLBear5630 said:And yet we have both 2016 and 2020. Trump should have won 2020 and lost. Clinton should have won 2016 and lost. By every metric, Biden should lose. Yet, elections are funny things. And no I do not prescribe to the stolen election in 2020, too many states and too many votes for it not to show up. You know the analysis capabilities of the US, it would show.whiterock said:I didn't say that. Just noting the full perspective. By almost every normal yardstick, the fall election should be very difficult for Democrats to win. There's really only one scenario where the outcome is seriously in doubt - the one that says Trump is so toxic that he cannot win, no way, no how, and anyone who says otherwise is a mind-numbed Trumpbot. Except, he's won once before (with far less preparation), he's won the primary, and he's ahead in most Electoral College projections. In no small part it's because he has a far better campaign team than he had in 2016 or 2020.FLBear5630 said:Of course it is. Trump is a lock. That is the only message that is acceptable. Not just on this Board, but all over. The Bannon machine is squashing any dissenting opinion.whiterock said:Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).FLBear5630 said:Mothra said:
Welp...
"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914
Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.
Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.
Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.
While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.
In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.
In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.
Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.
However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.
Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.
Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."
He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."
This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.
Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...
Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.
Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.
When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.
Just wondering what happens if Trump loses? Must of been stolen? Civil War?
If Democrats steal another one, things will get more contentious than they were last time.
In 2016, Trump overperformed the polling and won.
In 2020, Trump overperformed the polling and would have won had fraud not have been an issue in 3-4 states.
Trump is already ahead in most swing state polling. If hie overperforms the polls again, he will win an electoral landslide. A popular vote win is even possible within the current range of polls, before we even get to over/underperformance questions.
We're also seeing some interesting fundraising trends. A snippet from my Taibbi subscription:
"TOTAL MONETARY DONATIONS FROM THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY FOR EACH MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, 2024 CYCLE as of April 10, OpenSecrets.Org:TOTAL MONETARY DONATIONS FROM "HEDGE FUNDS AND PRIVATE EQUITY" FOR EACH MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, 2024 CYCLE as of April 10, OpenSecrets.Org:
- Donald Trump, $291,719
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., $36,790
- Joe Biden, $35,877
- Donald Trump, $1,134,035
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., $75,949
- Joe Biden, $68,871
Now, it's early and these total will change. But when you're performing well with both high finance and truck drivers, you are in a good place.
Will 2024 go his way? We will see. But, win or lose, unless there is provable fraud that can stand up to legal challenges there is no stolen elections. What you guys are pushing is a dangerous, slippery slope.
Not one court has found that Trump attempted to overturn the last ejection, or commit insurrection, or……. See how that works? But +60% of voters think fraud affected the last election, so there clearly is a problem. The dangerous slippery slope is the preposterous notion that election fraud never happens, anywhere, anytime, and never have….
In a brighter note, looks like Trump and RDS have patched things up.
🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump responds to Gov. Ron DeSantis pledging to help campaign and raise money for Trump’s 2024 campaign:
— Proud Elephant 🇺🇸🦅 (@ProudElephantUS) April 11, 2024
“Today, I heard very nice things. I heard he’s going to campaign very hard for me. And he’s going to raise A LOT of money for me. Ron, we like you.… pic.twitter.com/fJESr0Ihnd
