2024

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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 2:28p, 6/20/24
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

According to FOX, Biden is up by 2.



Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
I like to see polls, but rarely give them any weight this far out. The funny thing about this latest Fox News poll is that it has Biden beating Trump among rural voters, which we both know ain't happening.

Whiterock's showing Trump is winning are welded as fact. Anything showing Biden winning, we know that ain't happening...

Don't tell me, if Biden wins it was stolen. It couldn't be that there are a fair number of people that wouldn't trust Trump holding their coat, never mind in power. You guys went with the Primary numbers that this thing is a lock for Trump. Hell, Whiterock say 2/3 of the US is in line with Bannon! You are underestimating the number of people that are either liberal OR hate Trump. This is not going to be a landslide win for Donald. The closer we get the more the status quo will play in.
You jumped the shark regarding my post.

I'm simply pointing that this poll shows Biden beating Trump in rural America. We both know that there's a 99.999999999999999% chance of that NOT happening.

"You guys went with the primary numbers that this thing is a lock fro Trump"? Don't lump in with people that have claimed that Trump already won - NOT once have I said that Trump is going to win in November. As a matter of fact, I've said MORE than once that I don't think Trump will win.

But back to my post, it's pretty reasonable to question the accuracy of this poll based on the rural numbers alone. Trump has consistently been pretty damn strong among rural voters.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 2:33p, 6/20/24
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

According to FOX, Biden is up by 2.



Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
I like to see polls, but rarely give them any weight this far out. The funny thing about this latest Fox News poll is that it has Biden beating Trump among rural voters, which we both know ain't happening.

Whiterock's showing Trump is winning are welded as fact. Anything showing Biden winning, we know that ain't happening...

Don't tell me, if Biden wins it was stolen. It couldn't be that there are a fair number of people that wouldn't trust Trump holding their coat, never mind in power. You guys went with the Primary numbers that this thing is a lock for Trump. Hell, Whiterock say 2/3 of the US is in line with Bannon! You are underestimating the number of people that are either liberal OR hate Trump. This is not going to be a landslide win for Donald. The closer we get the more the status quo will play in.
You jumped the shark regarding my post.

I'm simply pointing that this poll shows Biden beating Trump in rural America. We both know that there's a 99.999999999999999% chance of that NOT happening.

"You guys went with the primary numbers that this thing is a lock fro Trump"? Don't lump in with people that have claimed that Trump already won - NOT once have I said that Trump is going to win in November. As a matter of fact, I've said MORE than once that I don't think Trump will win.

But back to my post, it's pretty reasonable to question the accuracy of this poll based on the rural numbers alone. Trump has consistently been pretty damn strong among rural voters.
Sorry.

I do think he will pull it out. I do not think it is a lock like many seem to think. I think he is highly disliked.

I also think if Biden wins, it is not necessarily stolen.
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 2:57p, 6/20/24
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

According to FOX, Biden is up by 2.



Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
I like to see polls, but rarely give them any weight this far out. The funny thing about this latest Fox News poll is that it has Biden beating Trump among rural voters, which we both know ain't happening.

Whiterock's showing Trump is winning are welded as fact. Anything showing Biden winning, we know that ain't happening...

Don't tell me, if Biden wins it was stolen. It couldn't be that there are a fair number of people that wouldn't trust Trump holding their coat, never mind in power. You guys went with the Primary numbers that this thing is a lock for Trump. Hell, Whiterock say 2/3 of the US is in line with Bannon! You are underestimating the number of people that are either liberal OR hate Trump. This is not going to be a landslide win for Donald. The closer we get the more the status quo will play in.
You jumped the shark regarding my post.

I'm simply pointing that this poll shows Biden beating Trump in rural America. We both know that there's a 99.999999999999999% chance of that NOT happening.

"You guys went with the primary numbers that this thing is a lock fro Trump"? Don't lump in with people that have claimed that Trump already won - NOT once have I said that Trump is going to win in November. As a matter of fact, I've said MORE than once that I don't think Trump will win.

But back to my post, it's pretty reasonable to question the accuracy of this poll based on the rural numbers alone. Trump has consistently been pretty damn strong among rural voters.
Sorry.

I do think he will pull it out. I do not think it is a lock like many seem to think. I think he is highly disliked.

I also think if Biden wins, it is not necessarily stolen.
I guess he could pull it out, but I don't think he does. Doesn't matter what polls say. Polls are great for the 24 hour news wankers that need stuff to talk about. Polls should come with a disclaimer that says "for entertainment purposes only".

I'm not a huge Trump fan, but I'll call out some of the BS that's thrown out there about him or his previous administration by the rabid LWNJs.

Yeah, I'll be voting for him in November, but I'd rather be voting for DeSantis.

Trump did some things right and he did plenty of wrong too (like every president). I don't like all the money he approved from congress to be thrown around at the start of Covid. I don't like he instituted a national minimum smoking age (I don't smoke), I don't like that he put a national ban on some vape flavors because some kids were putting dope in their Juul pods. I don't like how he went on and on about Kaepernick. I'm certainly not a fan of that butthole, but he was a private citizen exercising his 1st amendment right and not hurting anyone. Trump blew it up and made it a huge thing.

I also get tired of Trump getting in his own damn way, that probably pisses me off more than anything. And it's tiresome.

But given a choice between the ****show that is the Biden admin and the ****show of the Trump admin, I'll take Trump ****show everyday of the week.

*Edit*

If Biden wins I'm not going to say it was or wasn't stolen without seeing what happens during the election first. If there are boarded up windows so poll watchers can't watch the count, counting shutdown in the middle of the night for a water main breaks that didn't happen and ballot machines magically don't work in heavy Republican areas, then yeah... I'll have some legit questions about the election.

If everyone votes, the ballots get counted in a timely manner with no weird shutdowns, poll watchers are allowed to observe the count, etc.. and the results are released in a timely manner, then I won't have the same questions about the integrity of the election.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 3:25p, 6/20/24
There are essentially two ways the Democrats hold on to the White House in November:

One, and I believe this is the current game plan, is to hammer the 'Trump the Felon' line as far as possible, hoping he will hurt himself in the debate, tweaking the price of gas and jobs as much as possible sell the illusion that the economy is fine. Democrats believe it will work because they have the media on their side and most of the politicians willing to play along for a payout.

Two, is to dump Biden if the numbers say he cannot win. That's a whole lot more risky than some folks seem to understand. In the first place, dumping Biden would be an obvious move of desperation, and that alone would damage some of the support the Democrats would be able to build.

The bigger problem is that the Democrats could count on Joe Biden doing as they told him, but a new nominee would likely want to be in charge, and that makes the game plan less clear. Also, there really is not a replacement for Joe Biden who would energize the voters behind him or her vision. Biden only has the support he does now because he represents the Democrats' policies and programs, and - at best - a new nominee would be a new cheerleader for the same policies and programs. A new Democrat nominee who would not go along with the narrative would lose base in chasing independents.

Either road is possible, but neither is going to be like 2008 or 2020.

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 5:35p, 6/20/24
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

According to FOX, Biden is up by 2.



Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
I like to see polls, but rarely give them any weight this far out. The funny thing about this latest Fox News poll is that it has Biden beating Trump among rural voters, which we both know ain't happening.

Whiterock's showing Trump is winning are welded as fact. Anything showing Biden winning, we know that ain't happening...

Don't tell me, if Biden wins it was stolen. It couldn't be that there are a fair number of people that wouldn't trust Trump holding their coat, never mind in power. You guys went with the Primary numbers that this thing is a lock for Trump. Hell, Whiterock say 2/3 of the US is in line with Bannon! You are underestimating the number of people that are either liberal OR hate Trump. This is not going to be a landslide win for Donald. The closer we get the more the status quo will play in.
You jumped the shark regarding my post.

I'm simply pointing that this poll shows Biden beating Trump in rural America. We both know that there's a 99.999999999999999% chance of that NOT happening.

"You guys went with the primary numbers that this thing is a lock fro Trump"? Don't lump in with people that have claimed that Trump already won - NOT once have I said that Trump is going to win in November. As a matter of fact, I've said MORE than once that I don't think Trump will win.

But back to my post, it's pretty reasonable to question the accuracy of this poll based on the rural numbers alone. Trump has consistently been pretty damn strong among rural voters.
Sorry.

I do think he will pull it out. I do not think it is a lock like many seem to think. I think he is highly disliked.

I also think if Biden wins, it is not necessarily stolen.
I guess he could pull it out, but I don't think he does. Doesn't matter what polls say. Polls are great for the 24 hour news wankers that need stuff to talk about. Polls should come with a disclaimer that says "for entertainment purposes only".

I'm not a huge Trump fan, but I'll call out some of the BS that's thrown out there about him or his previous administration by the rabid LWNJs.

Yeah, I'll be voting for him in November, but I'd rather be voting for DeSantis.

Trump did some things right and he did plenty of wrong too (like every president). I don't like all the money he approved from congress to be thrown around at the start of Covid. I don't like he instituted a national minimum smoking age (I don't smoke), I don't like that he put a national ban on some vape flavors because some kids were putting dope in their Juul pods. I don't like how he went on and on about Kaepernick. I'm certainly not a fan of that butthole, but he was a private citizen exercising his 1st amendment right and not hurting anyone. Trump blew it up and made it a huge thing.

I also get tired of Trump getting in his own damn way, that probably pisses me off more than anything. And it's tiresome.

But given a choice between the ****show that is the Biden admin and the ****show of the Trump admin, I'll take Trump ****show everyday of the week.

*Edit*

If Biden wins I'm not going to say it was or wasn't stolen without seeing what happens during the election first. If there are boarded up windows so poll watchers can't watch the count, counting shutdown in the middle of the night for a water main breaks that didn't happen and ballot machines magically don't work in heavy Republican areas, then yeah... I'll have some legit questions about the election.

If everyone votes, the ballots get counted in a timely manner with no weird shutdowns, poll watchers are allowed to observe the count, etc.. and the results are released in a timely manner, then I won't have the same questions about the integrity of the election.
I agree, if we start hearing water main breaks in Atlanta or Detroit power outages it will be tough to not question
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boognish_bear
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7:00p, 6/20/24
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FLBear5630
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In reply to boognish_bear • 7:46p, 6/20/24
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 7:55p, 6/20/24
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
Not sure this not just a global version of DEI. Companies should ALWAYS strive to hire the most skilled and qualified person for the job. Hire a less skilled and less qualified American solely because he is an American? Hmmmmm. Not sure I agree. And I am a redneck.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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J.R.
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 9:04p, 6/20/24
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
both are a bunch of *****s!
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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:52a, 6/21/24
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

According to FOX, Biden is up by 2.



Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
I like to see polls, but rarely give them any weight this far out. The funny thing about this latest Fox News poll is that it has Biden beating Trump among rural voters, which we both know ain't happening.

Whiterock's showing Trump is winning are welded as fact. Anything showing Biden winning, we know that ain't happening...

Don't tell me, if Biden wins it was stolen. It couldn't be that there are a fair number of people that wouldn't trust Trump holding their coat, never mind in power. You guys went with the Primary numbers that this thing is a lock for Trump. Hell, Whiterock say 2/3 of the US is in line with Bannon! You are underestimating the number of people that are either liberal OR hate Trump. This is not going to be a landslide win for Donald. The closer we get the more the status quo will play in.
Polling is widely available showing 50-65% of the public, in some cases even near majorities of Democrats, see the lawfare for what it is.

This article is paywalled but I heard it widely discussed yesterday. It is squarely on the nerve of this issue = the lawfare against Donald Trump is a far greater threat to our Republic than Donald Trump himself. The author proposes this is going to be the issue that decides the election, and he's likely correct. That is the issue that will counter Dem attacks about J6.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-republicans-dont-abandon-felon-trump-59db1649

I've quoted an old saw from Langley many times here - "Never listen to your own propaganda; you might start to believe it." Democrats did, and have. They genuinely believe Trump is evil, and that justifies using every power at their disposal, legal or not, constitutional or not, principled or not, to destroy him. Trump triggers them so that it reveals their latent intolerance. Nietzsche spoke to this tendency of human nature:
"Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster... for when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you."


Democrats are deep in that hole, and straining mightily to plumb its depths.

We are all felons now. The only question is whether or not we've been effective enough to deserve a proper conviction.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 7:05a, 6/21/24
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

According to FOX, Biden is up by 2.



Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
I like to see polls, but rarely give them any weight this far out. The funny thing about this latest Fox News poll is that it has Biden beating Trump among rural voters, which we both know ain't happening.

Whiterock's showing Trump is winning are welded as fact. Anything showing Biden winning, we know that ain't happening...

Don't tell me, if Biden wins it was stolen. It couldn't be that there are a fair number of people that wouldn't trust Trump holding their coat, never mind in power. You guys went with the Primary numbers that this thing is a lock for Trump. Hell, Whiterock say 2/3 of the US is in line with Bannon! You are underestimating the number of people that are either liberal OR hate Trump. This is not going to be a landslide win for Donald. The closer we get the more the status quo will play in.
Polling is widely available showing 50-65% of the public, in some cases even near majorities of Democrats, see the lawfare for what it is.

This article is paywalled but I heard it widely discussed yesterday. It is squarely on the nerve of this issue = the lawfare against Donald Trump is a far greater threat to our Republic than Donald Trump himself. The author proposes this is going to be the issue that decides the election, and he's likely correct. That is the issue that will counter Dem attacks about J6.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-republicans-dont-abandon-felon-trump-59db1649

I've quoted an old saw from Langley many times here - "Never listen to your own propaganda; you might start to believe it." Democrats did, and have. They genuinely believe Trump is evil, and that justifies using every power at their disposal, legal or not, constitutional or not, principled or not, to destroy him. Trump triggers them so that it reveals their latent intolerance. Nietzsche spoke to this tendency of human nature:
"Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster... for when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you."


Democrats are deep in that hole, and straining mightily to plumb its depths.

We are all felons now. The only question is whether or not we've been effective enough to deserve a proper conviction.
Keep living and dying with the "Polling"... I think you need to take you own advice. You are so pro-Trump that even when indicators start showing otherwise, you are making up why that data is bad, but what supports your desire is right.

Trump is losing ground the closer we get to the election and the more the Dems are starting to pay attention, even FOX polls are showing a tight race and Biden with a 2% lead. All was rosy during the Primary when it was predominantly Trump's aggression and marketing machine dominating. Now, we are getting to where the numbers are not in his favor, as Dems outnumber GOP, and they will play just as hard ball, DeSantis and Halley didn't.

First - Meeting with Libertarians and offering to put one in the Cabinet
Second - Biden up by 2% in FOX of all places.
Third - College graduation and you automatically get a green card?
What's next? Trump knows he is in trouble if he can't get the Independents, which is not looking like a slam dunk it was in March...

Trump is moving to the middle, I think it is called moderation or "RINOism" using words you will like..


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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 8:13a, 6/21/24
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

According to FOX, Biden is up by 2.



Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
I like to see polls, but rarely give them any weight this far out. The funny thing about this latest Fox News poll is that it has Biden beating Trump among rural voters, which we both know ain't happening.

Whiterock's showing Trump is winning are welded as fact. Anything showing Biden winning, we know that ain't happening...

Don't tell me, if Biden wins it was stolen. It couldn't be that there are a fair number of people that wouldn't trust Trump holding their coat, never mind in power. You guys went with the Primary numbers that this thing is a lock for Trump. Hell, Whiterock say 2/3 of the US is in line with Bannon! You are underestimating the number of people that are either liberal OR hate Trump. This is not going to be a landslide win for Donald. The closer we get the more the status quo will play in.
Polling is widely available showing 50-65% of the public, in some cases even near majorities of Democrats, see the lawfare for what it is.

This article is paywalled but I heard it widely discussed yesterday. It is squarely on the nerve of this issue = the lawfare against Donald Trump is a far greater threat to our Republic than Donald Trump himself. The author proposes this is going to be the issue that decides the election, and he's likely correct. That is the issue that will counter Dem attacks about J6.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-republicans-dont-abandon-felon-trump-59db1649

I've quoted an old saw from Langley many times here - "Never listen to your own propaganda; you might start to believe it." Democrats did, and have. They genuinely believe Trump is evil, and that justifies using every power at their disposal, legal or not, constitutional or not, principled or not, to destroy him. Trump triggers them so that it reveals their latent intolerance. Nietzsche spoke to this tendency of human nature:
"Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster... for when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you."


Democrats are deep in that hole, and straining mightily to plumb its depths.

We are all felons now. The only question is whether or not we've been effective enough to deserve a proper conviction.
Keep living and dying with the "Polling"... I think you need to take you own advice. You are so pro-Trump that even when indicators start showing otherwise, you are making up why that data is bad, but what supports your desire is right.

Trump is losing ground the closer we get to the election and the more the Dems are starting to pay attention, even FOX polls are showing a tight race and Biden with a 2% lead. All was rosy during the Primary when it was predominantly Trump's aggression and marketing machine dominating. Now, we are getting to where the numbers are not in his favor, as Dems outnumber GOP, and they will play just as hard ball, DeSantis and Halley didn't.

First - Meeting with Libertarians and offering to put one in the Cabinet
Second - Biden up by 2% in FOX of all places.
Third - College graduation and you automatically get a green card?
What's next? Trump knows he is in trouble if he can't get the Independents, which is not looking like a slam dunk it was in March...

Trump is moving to the middle, I think it is called moderation or "RINOism" using words you will like..


the polling is far more objective than just chatting with the people you run into each day, here or elsewhere. it also tells you about trends, about what issues matter most, about what campaign themes are effective and not at moving numbers.

Trump isn't losing ground. The polls where Biden has pulled ahead by a point or two? are mostly the polls where Trump had been a head by a point or two. I.E. the movement is within the margin of error. if you look hard at the polls, there's a whiff of what has driven Biden's 2-3pt bump in the polls _ RFKJR supporters coming home to Biden. I suspect as much as half of Kennedy's support will end up coming home to Biden. So expect any Trump lead in polling to narrow toward the end (with the offsetting question being the turnout numbers of low-propensity voters who will break massively for Trump).

Instead of rejecting the polls, you should look harder at the real question few have focused on YET. Many of the polls show 50-49 type numbers one way or the other. But a larger body of the polls show 44-43 type numbers one way or the other = a very large number of undecideds. That latter set of polls beg the question of how those undecideds break. Biden has spent $80m in the last month in the swing states, and has not been able to move the numbers outside of the margin of polling error. That is a very troubling sign if you are a Democrat. (quite a few articles out there discussing that). It means Biden is having great difficulty winning over undecideds, despite a massive campaign spend coinciding with the felony conviction of his opponent. There is no positive spin on that, if you are on Team Biden. it means he has to basically get the entire undecided vote to stay home (by going thermonuclear on Trump as a threat to democracy itself). Problem is, the way the lawfare against Trump has rebounded to Trump's advantage suggests that the public in fact sees Democrats as the greater threat to democracy.

Trump has his own set of problems, but the way the table is set, the best Biden can hope for is to win a squeaker. Most of the scenarios where numbers start to yawn open benefit Trump. Biden is the incumbent here, at a time when supermajorities of the public are highly dissatisfied with a broad range of issues driven directly by Biden policy. Very hard to see 15pts of undecides breaking en masse for Biden. And given how bad thigns are, it's also hard to think all of them will stay home.

Trump may well win the national popular vote.


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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 8:33a, 6/21/24
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

According to FOX, Biden is up by 2.



Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
I like to see polls, but rarely give them any weight this far out. The funny thing about this latest Fox News poll is that it has Biden beating Trump among rural voters, which we both know ain't happening.

Whiterock's showing Trump is winning are welded as fact. Anything showing Biden winning, we know that ain't happening...

Don't tell me, if Biden wins it was stolen. It couldn't be that there are a fair number of people that wouldn't trust Trump holding their coat, never mind in power. You guys went with the Primary numbers that this thing is a lock for Trump. Hell, Whiterock say 2/3 of the US is in line with Bannon! You are underestimating the number of people that are either liberal OR hate Trump. This is not going to be a landslide win for Donald. The closer we get the more the status quo will play in.
Polling is widely available showing 50-65% of the public, in some cases even near majorities of Democrats, see the lawfare for what it is.

This article is paywalled but I heard it widely discussed yesterday. It is squarely on the nerve of this issue = the lawfare against Donald Trump is a far greater threat to our Republic than Donald Trump himself. The author proposes this is going to be the issue that decides the election, and he's likely correct. That is the issue that will counter Dem attacks about J6.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-republicans-dont-abandon-felon-trump-59db1649

I've quoted an old saw from Langley many times here - "Never listen to your own propaganda; you might start to believe it." Democrats did, and have. They genuinely believe Trump is evil, and that justifies using every power at their disposal, legal or not, constitutional or not, principled or not, to destroy him. Trump triggers them so that it reveals their latent intolerance. Nietzsche spoke to this tendency of human nature:
"Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster... for when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you."


Democrats are deep in that hole, and straining mightily to plumb its depths.

We are all felons now. The only question is whether or not we've been effective enough to deserve a proper conviction.
Keep living and dying with the "Polling"... I think you need to take you own advice. You are so pro-Trump that even when indicators start showing otherwise, you are making up why that data is bad, but what supports your desire is right.

Trump is losing ground the closer we get to the election and the more the Dems are starting to pay attention, even FOX polls are showing a tight race and Biden with a 2% lead. All was rosy during the Primary when it was predominantly Trump's aggression and marketing machine dominating. Now, we are getting to where the numbers are not in his favor, as Dems outnumber GOP, and they will play just as hard ball, DeSantis and Halley didn't.

First - Meeting with Libertarians and offering to put one in the Cabinet
Second - Biden up by 2% in FOX of all places.
Third - College graduation and you automatically get a green card?
What's next? Trump knows he is in trouble if he can't get the Independents, which is not looking like a slam dunk it was in March...

Trump is moving to the middle, I think it is called moderation or "RINOism" using words you will like..


the polling is far more objective than just chatting with the people you run into each day, here or elsewhere. it also tells you about trends, about what issues matter most, about what campaign themes are effective and not at moving numbers.

Trump isn't losing ground. The polls where Biden has pulled ahead by a point or two? are mostly the polls where Trump had been a head by a point or two. I.E. the movement is within the margin of error. if you look hard at the polls, there's a whiff of what has driven Biden's 2-3pt bump in the polls _ RFKJR supporters coming home to Biden. I suspect as much as half of Kennedy's support will end up coming home to Biden. So expect any Trump lead in polling to narrow toward the end (with the offsetting question being the turnout numbers of low-propensity voters who will break massively for Trump).

Instead of rejecting the polls, you should look harder at the real question few have focused on YET. Many of the polls show 50-49 type numbers one way or the other. But a larger body of the polls show 44-43 type numbers one way or the other = a very large number of undecideds. That latter set of polls beg the question of how those undecideds break. Biden has spent $80m in the last month in the swing states, and has not been able to move the numbers outside of the margin of polling error. That is a very troubling sign if you are a Democrat. (quite a few articles out there discussing that). It means Biden is having great difficulty winning over undecideds, despite a massive campaign spend coinciding with the felony conviction of his opponent. There is no positive spin on that, if you are on Team Biden. it means he has to basically get the entire undecided vote to stay home (by going thermonuclear on Trump as a threat to democracy itself). Problem is, the way the lawfare against Trump has rebounded to Trump's advantage suggests that the public in fact sees Democrats as the greater threat to democracy.

Trump has his own set of problems, but the way the table is set, the best Biden can hope for is to win a squeaker. Most of the scenarios where numbers start to yawn open benefit Trump. Biden is the incumbent here, at a time when supermajorities of the public are highly dissatisfied with a broad range of issues driven directly by Biden policy. Very hard to see 15pts of undecides breaking en masse for Biden. And given how bad thigns are, it's also hard to think all of them will stay home.

Trump may well win the national popular vote.


Well, Trump is moving Center. So, if he is smart, he will pick Halley as VP. That brings back the GOP he alienated and the Independents that believe an Adult (rightly or wrongly) is needed in the room. Rubio does the same, but he is from FL and really doesn't help on any demographic.

I think he will pick Scott, who I think is not the best choice. Not because of Scott, because of Donald. He needs a strong personality that will put on the good face in public, but be honest behind closed doors. Whether he liked him or not, Kelly filled that role in the 1st Admin (although could have been a little more supportive externally in my opinion) and it served Donald well. He needs an Adult to keep him from going too far.

Not a knock, we all need different skill sets to complement ours. I hope he is mature enough now to see it. I can't believe I am saying this, but based on recent actions I think he is. These Court cases may have been the best thing that happened to him. Too bad it wasn't 20 years ago!
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 11:12a, 6/21/24
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
Just like I don't like Trump's idea not taxing tip income, I don't like this green card idea either.

But, I guess I'll vote for the guy who would allow foreigners that are educated by an American college to stay in the USA and work vs. voting for the guy who wants to keep the borders open so other countries can empty out their prisons and send in their dregs of humanity.

Don't like Trump's latest ideas, but the decision on who to vote for, for me, is still a pretty easy one to make (right now).
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 11:23a, 6/21/24
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
Just like I don't like Trump's idea not taxing tip income, I don't like this green card idea either.

But, I guess I'll vote for the guy who would allow foreigners that are educated by an American college to stay in the USA and work vs. voting for the guy who wants to keep the borders open so other countries can empty out their prisons and send in their dregs of humanity.

Don't like Trump's latest ideas, but the decision on who to vote for, for me, is still a pretty easy one to make (right now).
Same here. Don't see how anyone can vote for Biden/Harris. If for no other reason than Biden's age and Harris as VP...
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 12:46p, 6/21/24
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
Just like I don't like Trump's idea not taxing tip income, I don't like this green card idea either.

But, I guess I'll vote for the guy who would allow foreigners that are educated by an American college to stay in the USA and work vs. voting for the guy who wants to keep the borders open so other countries can empty out their prisons and send in their dregs of humanity.

Don't like Trump's latest ideas, but the decision on who to vote for, for me, is still a pretty easy one to make (right now).
Same here. Don't see how anyone can vote for Biden/Harris. If for no other reason than Biden's age and Harris as VP...
To clarify, I don't like the idea of taxing ANY income. I'd rather have a consumption tax. It's fair for those that consume more be taxed more.

But we don't have that. We currently have an income tax and while that's in play, yeah, we shouldn't be carving out groups of people that are not required to pay their fair share.

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FLBear5630
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 12:54p, 6/21/24
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
Just like I don't like Trump's idea not taxing tip income, I don't like this green card idea either.

But, I guess I'll vote for the guy who would allow foreigners that are educated by an American college to stay in the USA and work vs. voting for the guy who wants to keep the borders open so other countries can empty out their prisons and send in their dregs of humanity.

Don't like Trump's latest ideas, but the decision on who to vote for, for me, is still a pretty easy one to make (right now).
Same here. Don't see how anyone can vote for Biden/Harris. If for no other reason than Biden's age and Harris as VP...
To clarify, I don't like the idea of taxing ANY income. I'd rather have a consumption tax. It's fair for those that consume more be taxed more.

But we don't have that. We currently have an income tax and while that's in play, yeah, we shouldn't be carving out groups of people that are not required to pay their fair share.
In my opinion, it should be quid pro quo. There are needs that society must fill, so the Govt paying for education, providing mortgage guarantees, tax breaks, and even subsidizing are all fine to me IF the person follows through. I will even go so far as to say I may not agree with all the needs, but such is life.
Citizenship to me is too big to give...
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whiterock
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 1:23p, 6/21/24
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
Just like I don't like Trump's idea not taxing tip income, I don't like this green card idea either.

But, I guess I'll vote for the guy who would allow foreigners that are educated by an American college to stay in the USA and work vs. voting for the guy who wants to keep the borders open so other countries can empty out their prisons and send in their dregs of humanity.

Don't like Trump's latest ideas, but the decision on who to vote for, for me, is still a pretty easy one to make (right now).
The logic of the green card proposal is "we've paid to educate them, we might as well get that investment back by letting them stay here & pay taxes." That objection has always been on the table, but it was always outweighed by the wonkier argument that we should not invite the best and brightest to come here for an education and then keep that best & brightest here = brain-draining the third world would cost us support in the third world (during the Cold War) and then actually ****** the development of that third world.

Obviously, a lot of these graduates are not legals, so it's not exactly apples to apples to F-1 visa holders..... But, still, we did pay to educate them. So how do we benefit by sending them home (because we can see/find them) while all the barely literate illegals (many of them released from foreign prisons) remain behind? Shouldn't it be the other way around? Shouldn't we deport FIRST the ones who are going to be a burden on the entitlement systems and allow to remain the ones who can pay their own way
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 1:29p, 6/21/24
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

According to FOX, Biden is up by 2.



Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
I like to see polls, but rarely give them any weight this far out. The funny thing about this latest Fox News poll is that it has Biden beating Trump among rural voters, which we both know ain't happening.

Whiterock's showing Trump is winning are welded as fact. Anything showing Biden winning, we know that ain't happening...

Don't tell me, if Biden wins it was stolen. It couldn't be that there are a fair number of people that wouldn't trust Trump holding their coat, never mind in power. You guys went with the Primary numbers that this thing is a lock for Trump. Hell, Whiterock say 2/3 of the US is in line with Bannon! You are underestimating the number of people that are either liberal OR hate Trump. This is not going to be a landslide win for Donald. The closer we get the more the status quo will play in.
Polling is widely available showing 50-65% of the public, in some cases even near majorities of Democrats, see the lawfare for what it is.

This article is paywalled but I heard it widely discussed yesterday. It is squarely on the nerve of this issue = the lawfare against Donald Trump is a far greater threat to our Republic than Donald Trump himself. The author proposes this is going to be the issue that decides the election, and he's likely correct. That is the issue that will counter Dem attacks about J6.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-republicans-dont-abandon-felon-trump-59db1649

I've quoted an old saw from Langley many times here - "Never listen to your own propaganda; you might start to believe it." Democrats did, and have. They genuinely believe Trump is evil, and that justifies using every power at their disposal, legal or not, constitutional or not, principled or not, to destroy him. Trump triggers them so that it reveals their latent intolerance. Nietzsche spoke to this tendency of human nature:
"Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster... for when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you."


Democrats are deep in that hole, and straining mightily to plumb its depths.

We are all felons now. The only question is whether or not we've been effective enough to deserve a proper conviction.
Keep living and dying with the "Polling"... I think you need to take you own advice. You are so pro-Trump that even when indicators start showing otherwise, you are making up why that data is bad, but what supports your desire is right.

Trump is losing ground the closer we get to the election and the more the Dems are starting to pay attention, even FOX polls are showing a tight race and Biden with a 2% lead. All was rosy during the Primary when it was predominantly Trump's aggression and marketing machine dominating. Now, we are getting to where the numbers are not in his favor, as Dems outnumber GOP, and they will play just as hard ball, DeSantis and Halley didn't.

First - Meeting with Libertarians and offering to put one in the Cabinet
Second - Biden up by 2% in FOX of all places.
Third - College graduation and you automatically get a green card?
What's next? Trump knows he is in trouble if he can't get the Independents, which is not looking like a slam dunk it was in March...

Trump is moving to the middle, I think it is called moderation or "RINOism" using words you will like..


the polling is far more objective than just chatting with the people you run into each day, here or elsewhere. it also tells you about trends, about what issues matter most, about what campaign themes are effective and not at moving numbers.

Trump isn't losing ground. The polls where Biden has pulled ahead by a point or two? are mostly the polls where Trump had been a head by a point or two. I.E. the movement is within the margin of error. if you look hard at the polls, there's a whiff of what has driven Biden's 2-3pt bump in the polls _ RFKJR supporters coming home to Biden. I suspect as much as half of Kennedy's support will end up coming home to Biden. So expect any Trump lead in polling to narrow toward the end (with the offsetting question being the turnout numbers of low-propensity voters who will break massively for Trump).

Instead of rejecting the polls, you should look harder at the real question few have focused on YET. Many of the polls show 50-49 type numbers one way or the other. But a larger body of the polls show 44-43 type numbers one way or the other = a very large number of undecideds. That latter set of polls beg the question of how those undecideds break. Biden has spent $80m in the last month in the swing states, and has not been able to move the numbers outside of the margin of polling error. That is a very troubling sign if you are a Democrat. (quite a few articles out there discussing that). It means Biden is having great difficulty winning over undecideds, despite a massive campaign spend coinciding with the felony conviction of his opponent. There is no positive spin on that, if you are on Team Biden. it means he has to basically get the entire undecided vote to stay home (by going thermonuclear on Trump as a threat to democracy itself). Problem is, the way the lawfare against Trump has rebounded to Trump's advantage suggests that the public in fact sees Democrats as the greater threat to democracy.

Trump has his own set of problems, but the way the table is set, the best Biden can hope for is to win a squeaker. Most of the scenarios where numbers start to yawn open benefit Trump. Biden is the incumbent here, at a time when supermajorities of the public are highly dissatisfied with a broad range of issues driven directly by Biden policy. Very hard to see 15pts of undecides breaking en masse for Biden. And given how bad thigns are, it's also hard to think all of them will stay home.

Trump may well win the national popular vote.


Well, Trump is moving Center. So, if he is smart, he will pick Halley as VP. That brings back the GOP he alienated and the Independents that believe an Adult (rightly or wrongly) is needed in the room. Rubio does the same, but he is from FL and really doesn't help on any demographic.

I think he will pick Scott, who I think is not the best choice. Not because of Scott, because of Donald. He needs a strong personality that will put on the good face in public, but be honest behind closed doors. Whether he liked him or not, Kelly filled that role in the 1st Admin (although could have been a little more supportive externally in my opinion) and it served Donald well. He needs an Adult to keep him from going too far.

Not a knock, we all need different skill sets to complement ours. I hope he is mature enough now to see it. I can't believe I am saying this, but based on recent actions I think he is. These Court cases may have been the best thing that happened to him. Too bad it wasn't 20 years ago!
Not looking like Haley is an option, and more recent polling is not as rosy as prior polling about what she'd do for the ticket.

The Hispanic demo is larger than the black demo, so don't under-rate the value of Rubio. The problem with Hispanics is that we are vastly out performing prior campaigns, on pace to actually win that vote. Moreover, Hispanics are a smaller factor in the key swing states. So your hunch is right about Scott being a more likely pick than Rubio. Seems like Scott might help more in MI and PA and WI than a hispanic option.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 1:35p, 6/21/24
whiterock said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
Just like I don't like Trump's idea not taxing tip income, I don't like this green card idea either.

But, I guess I'll vote for the guy who would allow foreigners that are educated by an American college to stay in the USA and work vs. voting for the guy who wants to keep the borders open so other countries can empty out their prisons and send in their dregs of humanity.

Don't like Trump's latest ideas, but the decision on who to vote for, for me, is still a pretty easy one to make (right now).
The logic of the green card proposal is "we've paid to educate them, we might as well get that investment back by letting them stay here & pay taxes." That objection has always been on the table, but it was always outweighed by the wonkier argument that we should not invite the best and brightest to come here for an education and then keep that best & brightest here = brain-draining the third world would cost us support in the third world (during the Cold War) and then actually ****** the development of that third world.

Obviously, a lot of these graduates are not legals, so it's not exactly apples to apples to F-1 visa holders..... But, still, we did pay to educate them. So how do we benefit by sending them home (because we can see/find them) while all the barely literate illegals (many of them released from foreign prisons) remain behind? Shouldn't it be the other way around? Shouldn't we deport FIRST the ones who are going to be a burden on the entitlement systems and allow to remain the ones who can pay their own way
He did not say that. The number of brightest and best that the US Government paid for their education is not high. I guarantee you the brightest at MIT, Stanford and other top schools have NO problem staying in the US.

Most out of Nation pay out-of-state fees.

Also, 2 year colleges don't produce German Rocket Scientist.

It is a huge leap from what Trump said to the concept you are talking.

Wow, you have a blindspot for that guy. I usually take your side, but you on this issue, you are a cool-aid drinker. Not an issue, we are ALL cool-aid drinkers on some issue. Mine is on social issues that I think the Govt should sponsor. At least yours isn't Putin and Russia being victims!
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 4:07p, 6/21/24
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
Just like I don't like Trump's idea not taxing tip income, I don't like this green card idea either.

But, I guess I'll vote for the guy who would allow foreigners that are educated by an American college to stay in the USA and work vs. voting for the guy who wants to keep the borders open so other countries can empty out their prisons and send in their dregs of humanity.

Don't like Trump's latest ideas, but the decision on who to vote for, for me, is still a pretty easy one to make (right now).
The logic of the green card proposal is "we've paid to educate them, we might as well get that investment back by letting them stay here & pay taxes." That objection has always been on the table, but it was always outweighed by the wonkier argument that we should not invite the best and brightest to come here for an education and then keep that best & brightest here = brain-draining the third world would cost us support in the third world (during the Cold War) and then actually ****** the development of that third world.

Obviously, a lot of these graduates are not legals, so it's not exactly apples to apples to F-1 visa holders..... But, still, we did pay to educate them. So how do we benefit by sending them home (because we can see/find them) while all the barely literate illegals (many of them released from foreign prisons) remain behind? Shouldn't it be the other way around? Shouldn't we deport FIRST the ones who are going to be a burden on the entitlement systems and allow to remain the ones who can pay their own way
He did not say that. The number of brightest and best that the US Government paid for their education is not high. I guarantee you the brightest at MIT, Stanford and other top schools have NO problem staying in the US.

Most out of Nation pay out-of-state fees.

Also, 2 year colleges don't produce German Rocket Scientist.

It is a huge leap from what Trump said to the concept you are talking.

Wow, you have a blindspot for that guy. I usually take your side, but you on this issue, you are a cool-aid drinker. Not an issue, we are ALL cool-aid drinkers on some issue. Mine is on social issues that I think the Govt should sponsor. At least yours isn't Putin and Russia being victims!
I didn't say he said that, nor (more pointedly) did I take a position on the proposal I noted that these issues and arguments are not new. And there's one other factor out there I didn't mention, but is implicit in the latter part of my prior post = we cannot deport all these illegals due to simple logistics in any meaningful timeframe. We don't have the courts or lawyers to do the deportation hearings at a numerical pace that will meet voter expectations. Neither do wet have the people with badges to do the arresting, or enough paddy wagons to carry them to the airports. Notably, we don't have the jail cells to hold them - a little over 2m cells at all three levels of jurisdiction which are already mostly full of citizen baddies. It would take a decade to properly deport 20m illegals.....

So no matter how motivated one is to expel all the illegals, there's going to be a LOT of triage involved about who goes first. And the college students are by any reasonable measure not a wise place to start.

My point here is decidedly practical, not political.
(And so is Trump's.)

Lets go get the hardened criminals first and save the taxpaying college grads for later on down the line.....is by any estimation quite reasonable given realities
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LIB,MR BEARS
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In reply to whiterock • 4:51p, 6/21/24
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:


Starting to sound like Biden. Next will be tuition forgiveness for degrees if you do public service.

I guess it's called coming to the middle, compromise. Is Trump a RINO????
Just like I don't like Trump's idea not taxing tip income, I don't like this green card idea either.

But, I guess I'll vote for the guy who would allow foreigners that are educated by an American college to stay in the USA and work vs. voting for the guy who wants to keep the borders open so other countries can empty out their prisons and send in their dregs of humanity.

Don't like Trump's latest ideas, but the decision on who to vote for, for me, is still a pretty easy one to make (right now).
The logic of the green card proposal is "we've paid to educate them, we might as well get that investment back by letting them stay here & pay taxes." That objection has always been on the table, but it was always outweighed by the wonkier argument that we should not invite the best and brightest to come here for an education and then keep that best & brightest here = brain-draining the third world would cost us support in the third world (during the Cold War) and then actually ****** the development of that third world.

Obviously, a lot of these graduates are not legals, so it's not exactly apples to apples to F-1 visa holders..... But, still, we did pay to educate them. So how do we benefit by sending them home (because we can see/find them) while all the barely literate illegals (many of them released from foreign prisons) remain behind? Shouldn't it be the other way around? Shouldn't we deport FIRST the ones who are going to be a burden on the entitlement systems and allow to remain the ones who can pay their own way
He did not say that. The number of brightest and best that the US Government paid for their education is not high. I guarantee you the brightest at MIT, Stanford and other top schools have NO problem staying in the US.

Most out of Nation pay out-of-state fees.

Also, 2 year colleges don't produce German Rocket Scientist.

It is a huge leap from what Trump said to the concept you are talking.

Wow, you have a blindspot for that guy. I usually take your side, but you on this issue, you are a cool-aid drinker. Not an issue, we are ALL cool-aid drinkers on some issue. Mine is on social issues that I think the Govt should sponsor. At least yours isn't Putin and Russia being victims!
I didn't say he said that, nor (more pointedly) did I take a position on the proposal I noted that these issues and arguments are not new. And there's one other factor out there I didn't mention, but is implicit in the latter part of my prior post = we cannot deport all these illegals due to simple logistics in any meaningful timeframe. We don't have the courts or lawyers to do the deportation hearings at a numerical pace that will meet voter expectations. Neither do wet have the people with badges to do the arresting, or enough paddy wagons to carry them to the airports. Notably, we don't have the jail cells to hold them - a little over 2m cells at all three levels of jurisdiction which are already mostly full of citizen baddies. It would take a decade to properly deport 20m illegals.....

So no matter how motivated one is to expel all the illegals, there's going to be a LOT of triage involved about who goes first. And the college students are by any reasonable measure not a wise place to start.

My point here is decidedly practical, not political.
(And so is Trump's.)

Lets go get the hardened criminals first and save the taxpaying college grads for later on down the line.....is by any estimation quite reasonable given realities
1 criminals
2 from suspect countries with no proven reason to be here
3 drains on economy (no skills)
.
.
.
.
.
.
10 professionals in understaffed fields
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6:23p, 6/21/24
Colorado Democrats are throwing more than $500,000 into a GOP primary to boost a far-right Republican.

Rocky Mountain Values, a Democratic PAC, and congressional candidate Adam Frisch have spent $400,000 highlighting Ron Hanks, a primary candidate who attended the January 6 "Stop the Steal" rally and claims former president Donald Trump won the 2020 election. Democrats have also bought more than $100,000 in TV ads attacking the GOP primary's frontrunner, Jeff Hurd, presuming Hanks would be easier to beat in November.
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8:33p, 6/21/24
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 10:13p, 6/21/24
Ideally the 16th amendment will be repealed and there will be no income taxes at all. The Founding Fathers were correct on that one, as with so many other important issues. However, I don't think it is likely alto happen ever. Too many states have income taxes and spend upon them to pay for their hair-brained schemes to rip off the people. Repealing an amendment would require a new amendment & 75% of states would need to ratify for it to happen. We would be lucky if we could get 30-40% of the states to go along with it.

Trump's idea about tips is brilliant because it helps ordinary people at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum and wouldn't really harm anyone. It wouldn't even reduce government revenues much because I cannot imagine the govt gets very much from taxes on tips. It could even give service industries a boost as waiters, etc would be incentivized to provide better service & thus earn more tips. I see it as a win win scenario.

I'm pleased that Sen. Ted Cruz and other members of Congress are already on board to make it law should Trump win. This could be part of a new Contract with America.
β€œIncline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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In reply to historian • 1:11a, 6/22/24
historian said:
Ideally the 16th amendment will be repealed and there will be no income taxes at all. The Founding Fathers were correct on that one, as with so many other important issues. However, I don't think it is likely alto happen ever. Too many states have income taxes and spend upon them to pay for their hair-brained schemes to rip off the people. Repealing an amendment would require a new amendment & 75% of states would need to ratify for it to happen. We would be lucky if we could get 30-40% of the states to go along with it.

Trump's idea about tips is brilliant because it helps ordinary people at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum and wouldn't really harm anyone. It wouldn't even reduce government revenues much because I cannot imagine the govt gets very much from taxes on tips. It could even give service industries a boost as waiters, etc would be incentivized to provide better service & thus earn more tips. I see it as a win win scenario.

I'm pleased that Sen. Ted Cruz and other members of Congress are already on board to make it law should Trump win. This could be part of a new Contract with America.
I tend to agree with almost everything you say, but I'm going to disagree on this one.

I don't feel that we should carve out groups of people that don't need to pay their fair share. Don't care what kind of job they have or how much they make.
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whiterock
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In reply to boognish_bear • 6:17a, 6/22/24
boognish_bear said:
Gotta swing for the fences this cycle, because the next two we will be on defense = not many pick up opportunities.
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 6:39a, 6/22/24
Whiskey Pete said:
historian said:
Ideally the 16th amendment will be repealed and there will be no income taxes at all. The Founding Fathers were correct on that one, as with so many other important issues. However, I don't think it is likely alto happen ever. Too many states have income taxes and spend upon them to pay for their hair-brained schemes to rip off the people. Repealing an amendment would require a new amendment & 75% of states would need to ratify for it to happen. We would be lucky if we could get 30-40% of the states to go along with it.

Trump's idea about tips is brilliant because it helps ordinary people at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum and wouldn't really harm anyone. It wouldn't even reduce government revenues much because I cannot imagine the govt gets very much from taxes on tips. It could even give service industries a boost as waiters, etc would be incentivized to provide better service & thus earn more tips. I see it as a win win scenario.

I'm pleased that Sen. Ted Cruz and other members of Congress are already on board to make it law should Trump win. This could be part of a new Contract with America.
I tend to agree with almost everything you say, but I'm going to disagree on this one.

I don't feel that we should carve out groups of people that don't need to pay their fair share. Don't care what kind of job they have or how much they make.
ya gotta win elections, too, or your ideas will never even get voted on.

The tips proposal is about the young person vote. It's historically always been a strongly blue demographic with very low turnout numbers. Mail-in voting changes that. Trump lost it by typically large number in 2020 (25pt margin), but more importantly the turnout grew in every state over 2018 and was over 50% turnout in all the swing states.

That has changed in 2024. Polls show Biden has only a 2pt lead with young voters, but more importantly, a third are backing some third party candidate. Very high third party voting means dissatisfaction with mainstream candidates, and that usually bodes for lower overall turnout. Add in white hot negative campaigning for both sides, which tends to turn off voters and drive down turnout, and Trump could actually win this demographic.
https://www.npr.org/2024/06/05/nx-s1-4987296/young-voters-biden-gaza-inflation-abortion-trump-genforward-poll

Winning a national election is all about putting together a coalition, an equation of winning a large enough percentage of enough demographics to prevail. When running against an incumbent, you have to eat away at his coalition. You don't necessarily have to win any of the demographics that are part of his equation. You just have to nibble away enough in enough places while growing your own coalition. Biden has lost over 20% points with the youth vote, and the very high 3rd party support shown in polling suggest we will see lower turnout levels in the youth vote. So Biden is at risk of getting a drastically smaller percentage of a lower overall turnout in this demo. That is very, very bad math in a close election. He has to make it up somewhere else. And he can't easily do that. He's at risk of losing the hispanic vote outright, and somewhere between 10-30pts in the black vote. in addition, amidst Biden's struggles with the hispanic and black votes, we see most of his trouble is with the male demographic and the YOUNGER demographic. It's black males and black youth that are abandoning the Democrat party, etc....

That's the context in which the tip proposal occurs. Who lives on tips? Mostly young people.

I think you can also safely assess the proposal about green cards for illegals with college degrees in the same light. Who are illegals with college degrees? Mostly young people who've been here in mainstream society for a good long while. And what do college students tend to have? An active social life. Friends. Threatening to deport a boyfriend or girlfriend or good friend or best friend or popular classmate? Good way to lose votes in the youth demographic.

We are seeing the Trump campaign engage in good strategic targeting of blue demographics to destroy Democrats victory math.

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whiterock
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9:09a, 6/22/24
Seems to reflect where the race is - close, leaning toward Trump.

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whiterock
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9:11a, 6/22/24
and then there's this one, from a top 3-4 pollster over the last several cycles.



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boognish_bear
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12:13p, 6/22/24
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LIB,MR BEARS
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In reply to boognish_bear • 12:15p, 6/22/24
boognish_bear said:

Sadly, this is probably correct
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12:27p, 6/22/24
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Cobretti
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In reply to boognish_bear • 5:19p, 6/22/24
boognish_bear said:
that's plenty of time to modify his sleep schedule so he doesn't look and feel completely exhausted after sundown
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8:23p, 6/22/24
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