2024

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historian
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 8:50p, 6/28/24
and Hillary
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whiterock
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8:15a, 6/29/24
NJ in play? Ouch.
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:22a, 6/29/24
whiterock said:
Three polls so far seem to show the debate did not hurt Biden. While there has always been some lag after debates, I still find this shocking. One of Trump's internals had him winning the debate (69-31) and had half of Dems saying Biden should be replaced, but the head-to-head poll didn't change. Bizarre. The electorate is flat locked-in.
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Realitybites
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In reply to sombear • 8:44a, 6/29/24
The groomer/abortion barbie vote doesn't really care much about the specifics of the name on the ballot.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to sombear • 9:29a, 6/29/24
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Three polls so far seem to show the debate did not hurt Biden. While there has always been some lag after debates, I still find this shocking. One of Trump's internals had him winning the debate (69-31) and had half of Dems saying Biden should be replaced, but the head-to-head poll didn't change. Bizarre. The electorate is flat locked-in.
unless something major happens, Trump train is rolling. The economy is driving this election big time and people had money under Trump. Its that simple
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
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#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
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FLBear5630
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 9:40a, 6/29/24
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Three polls so far seem to show the debate did not hurt Biden. While there has always been some lag after debates, I still find this shocking. One of Trump's internals had him winning the debate (69-31) and had half of Dems saying Biden should be replaced, but the head-to-head poll didn't change. Bizarre. The electorate is flat locked-in.
unless something major happens, Trump train is rolling. The economy is driving this election big time and people had money under Trump. Its that simple
100% agree. That debate solidified it, there is no choice.

My wife is an RN, the RN's she worked with all said the same thing. You can tell that Trump loves the US and is sick over what is happening. He doesn't have to do this, but is. When he talked about what is happening he was at his best. When he got into petty dick measuring and talking about his troubles he was at his worst.

If he sticks to fixing what is wrong and his love of Country, this will be a landslide. Biden is just not there, needs to go to retirement...
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sombear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 9:47a, 6/29/24
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Three polls so far seem to show the debate did not hurt Biden. While there has always been some lag after debates, I still find this shocking. One of Trump's internals had him winning the debate (69-31) and had half of Dems saying Biden should be replaced, but the head-to-head poll didn't change. Bizarre. The electorate is flat locked-in.
unless something major happens, Trump train is rolling. The economy is driving this election big time and people had money under Trump. Its that simple
Trump is the strong favorite, no doubt. I'm just amazed the polling didn't seem to move after the worst debate performance in the history of televised debates.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to sombear • 12:22p, 6/29/24
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Three polls so far seem to show the debate did not hurt Biden. While there has always been some lag after debates, I still find this shocking. One of Trump's internals had him winning the debate (69-31) and had half of Dems saying Biden should be replaced, but the head-to-head poll didn't change. Bizarre. The electorate is flat locked-in.
unless something major happens, Trump train is rolling. The economy is driving this election big time and people had money under Trump. Its that simple
Trump is the strong favorite, no doubt. I'm just amazed the polling didn't seem to move after the worst debate performance in the history of televised debates.
I think I can explain that.

The debates were watched by about 51 million viewers, but that was sharply down from the 2020 debates, indicating a lot of voters did not consider the debates important to their decision.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2024/06/28/2024-debate-ratings-biden-trump/

For comparison, the first Biden-Trump debate in 2020 was held September 29, and most experts ruled Biden the winner by about 10 points in snap polls.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Biden leading 54-44 before the first debate, and 55-43 after the poll, a modest shift;

CNBC/Change Research showed Biden leading 54-41 before the first debate, and 52-42 after the debate, a 3 point move in Trump's favor;

Economist/YouGov showed Biden leading 50-42 before the first debate, and 51-42 after the poll, a very slight shift;

Emerson showed Biden leading 48-44 before the first debate, and 50-45 after the poll, again a modest shift.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

The point is that a single event rarely has immediate visible results.

The real significance of Thursday will not be seen unless you dig into the details, specifically the impact on voter enthusiasm. The New York Times/Siena poll released just before the debate, for example, 30% of respondents said they were 'somewhat' or 'very' likely to vote, against 65% 'almost certain', meaning that about a third of poll respondents were not completely sure they would vote in November. Many of those are likely to respond to the next poll but enthusiasm may seriously be impacted, which would not show in the topline results.

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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4th and Inches
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12:30p, 6/29/24
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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Whiskey Pete
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1:36p, 6/29/24
Couldn't care less about the national polling. More interested in the state by state polling.
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sombear
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 1:49p, 6/29/24
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Three polls so far seem to show the debate did not hurt Biden. While there has always been some lag after debates, I still find this shocking. One of Trump's internals had him winning the debate (69-31) and had half of Dems saying Biden should be replaced, but the head-to-head poll didn't change. Bizarre. The electorate is flat locked-in.
unless something major happens, Trump train is rolling. The economy is driving this election big time and people had money under Trump. Its that simple
Trump is the strong favorite, no doubt. I'm just amazed the polling didn't seem to move after the worst debate performance in the history of televised debates.
I think I can explain that.

The debates were watched by about 51 million viewers, but that was sharply down from the 2020 debates, indicating a lot of voters did not consider the debates important to their decision.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2024/06/28/2024-debate-ratings-biden-trump/

For comparison, the first Biden-Trump debate in 2020 was held September 29, and most experts ruled Biden the winner by about 10 points in snap polls.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Biden leading 54-44 before the first debate, and 55-43 after the poll, a modest shift;

CNBC/Change Research showed Biden leading 54-41 before the first debate, and 52-42 after the debate, a 3 point move in Trump's favor;

Economist/YouGov showed Biden leading 50-42 before the first debate, and 51-42 after the poll, a very slight shift;

Emerson showed Biden leading 48-44 before the first debate, and 50-45 after the poll, again a modest shift.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

The point is that a single event rarely has immediate visible results.

The real significance of Thursday will not be seen unless you dig into the details, specifically the impact on voter enthusiasm. The New York Times/Siena poll released just before the debate, for example, 30% of respondents said they were 'somewhat' or 'very' likely to vote, against 65% 'almost certain', meaning that about a third of poll respondents were not completely sure they would vote in November. Many of those are likely to respond to the next poll but enthusiasm may seriously be impacted, which would not show in the topline results.

All good points. The difference in my view is that no candidate has ever come close to wetting the bed the way Biden did. And, while the viewership was average, think about all the post-debate media attention. I mean, when MSNBC and the NY Times are calling on Biden to step away . . . . And think about the people who you have talked to who did not watch the debate but are nonetheless making Biden jokes.
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sombear
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 1:51p, 6/29/24
Whiskey Pete said:
Couldn't care less about the national polling. More interested in the state by state polling.
For sure, states are more important, but if you're a Trump voter, that's still far too close to call, as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have all consistently been within the MOE, and Trump needs 2 of the 3.

But, my point was that I truly thought it was over after the debate. And it still might be.
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boognish_bear
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3:02p, 6/29/24
Wisconsin bbq....pass

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historian
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3:14p, 6/29/24
Plus people blame Biden for the illegal alien invasion. They know the Dems are responsible and that the illegals are hurting the economy & a major part of the crime wave. Laken Riley matters.
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Jack and DP
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3:20p, 6/29/24
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historian
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In reply to sombear • 3:23p, 6/29/24
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Three polls so far seem to show the debate did not hurt Biden. While there has always been some lag after debates, I still find this shocking. One of Trump's internals had him winning the debate (69-31) and had half of Dems saying Biden should be replaced, but the head-to-head poll didn't change. Bizarre. The electorate is flat locked-in.
unless something major happens, Trump train is rolling. The economy is driving this election big time and people had money under Trump. Its that simple
Trump is the strong favorite, no doubt. I'm just amazed the polling didn't seem to move after the worst debate performance in the history of televised debates.

Another example of why we cannot always trust polls. Besides, the only one that really masters is on November 5.
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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 3:28p, 6/29/24
Whiskey Pete said:
Couldn't care less about the national polling. More interested in the state by state polling.
Actually I see it the reverse. You can cover your eyes and ears and know that Texas/Oklahoma to Carolinas will be solid red and then add Kansas north and west towards Idaho.

You can do the same with the other side such as Pacific NW, Minnesota, Illinois, NY etc.

It's the Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Arizona and Nevada that matter in polling.
Astros in Home Stretch Geaux Texans
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 3:55p, 6/29/24
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Three polls so far seem to show the debate did not hurt Biden. While there has always been some lag after debates, I still find this shocking. One of Trump's internals had him winning the debate (69-31) and had half of Dems saying Biden should be replaced, but the head-to-head poll didn't change. Bizarre. The electorate is flat locked-in.


Yep. That was my hunch and so far it seems to be the case. A relatively large number of undecideds are up for grabs. Trump should get a majority of them, but they're going to wait until the last possible moment before committing.

That's human nature….to put off unpleasant things until the last minute. Neither of these two guys are going to "inspire" anyone to vote for them.


So it increasingly looks like it will come down to WI, MI, or PA. Biden needs all three. Here's one to watch from a highly regarded MI polling firm.
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FLBear5630
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5:04p, 6/29/24
What are we drinking tonight?

Helles beer and the wife on Radlers...
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boognish_bear
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6:16p, 6/29/24
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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to boognish_bear • 7:18p, 6/29/24
LOL. He is always a great guy.
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boognish_bear
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7:22p, 6/29/24
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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to boognish_bear • 7:32p, 6/29/24
She must have really liked Trump Thursday. She originally supported Haley. Then Trump after Haley backed out pledging $90 million. This says she upped it. What's another 10 million?
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Jack and DP
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8:50p, 6/29/24
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to sombear • 9:11p, 6/29/24
sombear said:
Whiskey Pete said:
Couldn't care less about the national polling. More interested in the state by state polling.
For sure, states are more important, but if you're a Trump voter, that's still far too close to call, as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have all consistently been within the MOE, and Trump needs 2 of the 3.

But, my point was that I truly thought it was over after the debate. And it still might be.
If Trump keeps the states that he won in 2020 and grabs GA, NV, and AZ - he only needs ONE of those states to win.

He's polling well in the GA, NV, and AZ. Also, it looks like VA may be in play. If he takes that, he doesn't need PA, WI, MI.

Some other poll came out that showed him tied with Biden New Friggin' Jersey.
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Whiskey Pete
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In reply to Aliceinbubbleland • 9:13p, 6/29/24
Aliceinbubbleland said:
Whiskey Pete said:
Couldn't care less about the national polling. More interested in the state by state polling.
Actually I see it the reverse. You can cover your eyes and ears and know that Texas/Oklahoma to Carolinas will be solid red and then add Kansas north and west towards Idaho.

You can do the same with the other side such as Pacific NW, Minnesota, Illinois, NY etc.

It's the Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Arizona and Nevada that matter in polling.
You see the reverse, then talk about the state polling?

My point proven. States only matter.
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sombear
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 9:15p, 6/29/24
Whiskey Pete said:
sombear said:
Whiskey Pete said:
Couldn't care less about the national polling. More interested in the state by state polling.
For sure, states are more important, but if you're a Trump voter, that's still far too close to call, as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have all consistently been within the MOE, and Trump needs 2 of the 3.

But, my point was that I truly thought it was over after the debate. And it still might be.
If Trump keeps the states that he won in 2020 and grabs GA, NV, and AZ - he only needs ONE of those states to win.

He's polling well in the GA, NV, and AZ. Also, it looks like VA may be in play. If he takes that, he doesn't need PA, WI, MI.

Some other poll came out that showed him tied with Biden New Friggin' Jersey.
Yes, there are several different combinations. Winning 2 of those 3 is a pretty much a guaranteed win.
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GrowlTowel
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9:16p, 6/29/24
Trump was within the MOE in Minnesota before the debate. Minnesota.
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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to Whiskey Pete • 9:20p, 6/29/24
Advantage Whiskey Pete
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Jack and DP
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9:42p, 6/29/24
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6:45a, 6/30/24
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whiterock
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In reply to Jack and DP • 6:49a, 6/30/24
Jack and DP said:
Those polls show the Democrat dilemma. There is no safe port in the storm for them. Sure, they can make the change, but they risk alienating parts of the Obama/Biden coalition.

Risk vs Return. If you're going to court risk, there has to be a reasonable potential for a greater return than where you are at the moment. Right now, there is not an obvious option for them which achieves that gain. If that's what the polling looks like across the range of options, they will stick with Biden.
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whiterock
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7:56a, 6/30/24
Correlation is not causation, but the parallels between the POTUS vote and party affiliation metrics is remarkable.

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Jack and DP
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8:13a, 6/30/24
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8:18a, 6/30/24
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