2024

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ShooterTX
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

boognish_bear said:


How many times in the last 50 years has Nevada voted to the right of Arizona.
That one item screams the polling is nonsense.
NV has a strong influx of CA Conservatives, my Uncle former Navy P3 Orion Nav and his buddies all moved there. Think ID light...


Based on 2020 results it would require Net 100,000 likely Republican voters moving into Nevada over less than four years to reach Arizona 2020 voting %. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Nevada has several factors that have helped Trump but inbound migration simply isn't enough people to shift it that far.

A far more plausible likelihood is that the polls are wrong.


Lots of folks in the casinos would LOVE the Trump plan to exempt tips from income tax.
ShooterTX
Adriacus Peratuun
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ShooterTX said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

boognish_bear said:


How many times in the last 50 years has Nevada voted to the right of Arizona.
That one item screams the polling is nonsense.
NV has a strong influx of CA Conservatives, my Uncle former Navy P3 Orion Nav and his buddies all moved there. Think ID light...


Based on 2020 results it would require Net 100,000 likely Republican voters moving into Nevada over less than four years to reach Arizona 2020 voting %. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Nevada has several factors that have helped Trump but inbound migration simply isn't enough people to shift it that far.

A far more plausible likelihood is that the polls are wrong.


Lots of folks in the casinos would LOVE the Trump plan to exempt tips from income tax.



Yes. But 2% further to the left becoming (per that poll) 5% to the right is too large a volume to be explained away with "people moving" and "no tax tips". And it isn't like Arizona has no tip based workers. That proposal doesn't stop at the state line.

Again…….the simplest explanation (which is normally the right one) is that the poll is wrong.
FLBear5630
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

boognish_bear said:


How many times in the last 50 years has Nevada voted to the right of Arizona.
That one item screams the polling is nonsense.
NV has a strong influx of CA Conservatives, my Uncle former Navy P3 Orion Nav and his buddies all moved there. Think ID light...


Based on 2020 results it would require Net 100,000 likely Republican voters moving into Nevada over less than four years to reach Arizona 2020 voting %. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Nevada has several factors that have helped Trump but inbound migration simply isn't enough people to shift it that far.

A far more plausible likelihood is that the polls are wrong.
Check the numbers. Perfectly plausible, CA is a ****-show, they are losing a ton.


NEVADA: 2020 Census
Adriacus Peratuun
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FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

boognish_bear said:


How many times in the last 50 years has Nevada voted to the right of Arizona.
That one item screams the polling is nonsense.
NV has a strong influx of CA Conservatives, my Uncle former Navy P3 Orion Nav and his buddies all moved there. Think ID light...


Based on 2020 results it would require Net 100,000 likely Republican voters moving into Nevada over less than four years to reach Arizona 2020 voting %. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Nevada has several factors that have helped Trump but inbound migration simply isn't enough people to shift it that far.

A far more plausible likelihood is that the polls are wrong.
Check the numbers. Perfectly plausible, CA is a ****-show, they are losing a ton.


NEVADA: 2020 Census
No, it isn't.



When total growth is under 100,000
Less the number that are not voter eligible
Less the number that are eligible but not registered to vote
Less the number eligible to vote but not leaning Republican.

Not perfectly plausible.
FLBear5630
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

boognish_bear said:


How many times in the last 50 years has Nevada voted to the right of Arizona.
That one item screams the polling is nonsense.
NV has a strong influx of CA Conservatives, my Uncle former Navy P3 Orion Nav and his buddies all moved there. Think ID light...


Based on 2020 results it would require Net 100,000 likely Republican voters moving into Nevada over less than four years to reach Arizona 2020 voting %. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Nevada has several factors that have helped Trump but inbound migration simply isn't enough people to shift it that far.

A far more plausible likelihood is that the polls are wrong.
Check the numbers. Perfectly plausible, CA is a ****-show, they are losing a ton.


NEVADA: 2020 Census
No, it isn't.



When total growth is under 100,000
Less the number that are not voter eligible
Less the number that are eligible but not registered to vote
Less the number eligible to vote but not leaning Republican.

Not perfectly plausible.
Ok, there is something nefarious going on. That is really what you want.
Adriacus Peratuun
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FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

boognish_bear said:


How many times in the last 50 years has Nevada voted to the right of Arizona.
That one item screams the polling is nonsense.
NV has a strong influx of CA Conservatives, my Uncle former Navy P3 Orion Nav and his buddies all moved there. Think ID light...


Based on 2020 results it would require Net 100,000 likely Republican voters moving into Nevada over less than four years to reach Arizona 2020 voting %. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Nevada has several factors that have helped Trump but inbound migration simply isn't enough people to shift it that far.

A far more plausible likelihood is that the polls are wrong.
Check the numbers. Perfectly plausible, CA is a ****-show, they are losing a ton.


NEVADA: 2020 Census
No, it isn't.



When total growth is under 100,000
Less the number that are not voter eligible
Less the number that are eligible but not registered to vote
Less the number eligible to vote but not leaning Republican.

Not perfectly plausible.
Ok, there is something nefarious going on. That is really what you want.
Or some pollsters use questionable methodology which inherently leads to erroneous results.

boognish_bear
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Oldbear83
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Didn't know Trump polled the staff at Mar-a-Lago
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
FLBear5630
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

boognish_bear said:


How many times in the last 50 years has Nevada voted to the right of Arizona.
That one item screams the polling is nonsense.
NV has a strong influx of CA Conservatives, my Uncle former Navy P3 Orion Nav and his buddies all moved there. Think ID light...


Based on 2020 results it would require Net 100,000 likely Republican voters moving into Nevada over less than four years to reach Arizona 2020 voting %. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Nevada has several factors that have helped Trump but inbound migration simply isn't enough people to shift it that far.

A far more plausible likelihood is that the polls are wrong.
Check the numbers. Perfectly plausible, CA is a ****-show, they are losing a ton.


NEVADA: 2020 Census
No, it isn't.



When total growth is under 100,000
Less the number that are not voter eligible
Less the number that are eligible but not registered to vote
Less the number eligible to vote but not leaning Republican.

Not perfectly plausible.
Ok, there is something nefarious going on. That is really what you want.
Or some pollsters use questionable methodology which inherently leads to erroneous results.




I just read an article on this. Specifically what is happening in n AZ and NV. I am not saying the source is good or not. Just that it seems to be plausible.

Matches what my Uncle has said


https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1155/arizona-and-nevada-have-lost-tens-of-thousands-of
historian
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

Oldbear83 said:

One danger people should keep in mind, is that polls are not scoreboards, even though the media often treat them as such.

For one thing, polls reflect a guess about what is going on, which is one reason they publish (but don't talk much about) the margin of error. And hoo boy, people don't understand how that works.

Consider the NPR/PBS/Marist poll released August 5, which shows Harris leading Trump 51-48. That poll shows a 3.4% MoE, which some people take to mean the margin could be off by as much as 3.4 percent, but that's not true. The MoE applies to each candidate's level of support, meaning the possible range of actual support could be 54.4% Harris to 44.6% Trump, or it could be 51.4% Trump to 47.6% Harris, or anything in between.

When you understand how MoE really works, you will realize that almost every poll reflects a condition where either candidate could actually be leading And that, of course, ignores the bias which is part of every poll. Several posts have observed how different polling groups weight party identification in sometimes imaginative ways, And sometimes the polls play tricks with their own methodology, like YouGov's practice of changing the party identification weighting from one poll to another, giving the false impression that support has changed for or against a candidate.

And that, friends, is just a peek into the less-than-scientific character of at least some polls.
And the reality that every polling group applies different mathematical approaches to handle the deficiencies in their data collection speaks volumes.

Every poll data set is flawed.
No one agrees on how to properly correct the flaws.



These are the reasons I generally pay little attention to the polls. They are usually wrong and ard not much of a predictor of how an election will go. The only poll that matters is on November 5. The only usefulness of the others is that some foolish, uninformed, & unprincipled people will vote based upon the polls. Hopefully, that's a tiny number with minimal overall impact.

historian
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KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:

boognish_bear said:

Since the time she entered the race her betting odds have been steadily increasing. This is the first day they have dropped.


betting odds in money movement.. money changed, they adjust the line
Every time I see a map like this it makes me wonder.....,


B. Why can't we peacefully separate into woke and non woke countries ?


Because the woke fascists are obsessed with controlling everyone and everything. They would never allow it to happen and of it somehow did happen, they would immediately start their efforts to control those ard free from their madness. Socialism is parasitic so requires as many victims as possible. That's the only way they can pretend to have any success.
historian
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Much more succinct than my post!
historian
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4th and Inches said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:

boognish_bear said:

Since the time she entered the race her betting odds have been steadily increasing. This is the first day they have dropped.


betting odds in money movement.. money changed, they adjust the line
Every time I see a map like this it makes me wonder.....,

A. How can so many people in a particular region vote for woke policies ?
B. Why can't we peacefully separate into woke and non woke countries ?
most who vote for Dems are voting for what they were told..

There is another member of this board who said they vote democrat because of these reasons:
" -Strong leashes around the wealthy and corporations, including regulations and progressive tax policies
-Environmental protection and prioritization of efficient usage of natural resources
-Consumer protection before corporate welfare
-Reduce national debt
-Strong labor unions
-Accessible and valuable public education
-Protect individual rights from states, i.e. prevent states from intruding on individual liberties

I'd say these are my core policies that I favor."



If someone votes for these things, they cannot vote for Dems:

- control over corporations becomes a major feature of fascism and results in a handful of very wealthy corporations in bed with the corrupt politicians so that they are in lockstep and the rich get richer while the poor get poorer, and lose their freedoms.

- environment: while the Dems are obsessed with the climate cult propaganda they actually have a terrible track record: EV's use more carbon to manufacture and maintain than they save. Where does the electricity come from when you plug in to recharge? Windmills & solar "farms" are inefficient and a blight on the landscape. They also kill birds, whaLes, & other animals. Rotting corpses are a terrible form of pollution. Also, how much carbon footprint do they require to manufacture & install?

- consumer protection before corporate welfare: Don't make me laugh. See the first item above.

- national debt: an even bigger joke. The republicans deserve lots of blame on this one too, but I cannot remember the last time a Dem politician even talked about fiscal responsibility or s as bing Social Security. They are always very much opposed to anything resembling restraint or sensible budgets.

- strong labor unions: This is not good for America but the Dems only support unions that they control & keep the cash flowing into their coffers. And they are always willing to throw them under the boss, like any of their constituencies. It is noteworthy that s prominent union leader endorsed Trump.

- the only interest Dems have in public education is controlling it do the can indoctrinated America's children with their propaganda: the climate cult, Tran insanity (where do young children get crazy ideas about this stuff?), Marxist lies about American history like CRT & Project 1619, and so on.

- individual liberties: the Dems are thde greatest threat to our liberties, probably greater than any we have ever faced.

As flawed as the GOP is, and this list is very long, they are the only party that can be trusted genuinely to pursue any of these goals. The fascists will only use them as props to push their evil Marxist agenda to the detriment of everyone.



4th and Inches
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Oldbear83 said:

Didn't know Trump polled the staff at Mar-a-Lago
close enough- he polled followers on twitter or truth social or something
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Jack Bauer
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JD Vance is WEIRD!!!

KaiBear
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Death is now officially trendy.

boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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historian
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More specifically, mass murder of the innocent. Abortion on demand is americas Holocaust.
historian
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Trump's new ad on Kamala's crazy, commie price controls plan:

https://notthebee.com/article/trump-just-dropped-a-new-ad-on-x-and-it-is-devastating-to-kamalas-economic-plan
historian
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Greg Gutfeld on Kamala's crazy commie price control plan:

https://notthebee.com/article/holy-cow-greg-gutfeld-dropped-the-mic-on-kamalas-economic-proposals
Realitybites
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boognish_bear said:




This is actually a problem. Rasmussen is one of tbe few Trump leaning polls that doesn't oversample Democrats, and it shows Harris ahead in one and within the margin of fraud in two with Trump only winning Ohio.
4th and Inches
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Realitybites said:

boognish_bear said:




This is actually a problem. Rasmussen is one of tbe few Trump leaning polls that doesn't oversample Democrats, and it shows Harris ahead in one and within the margin of fraud in two with Trump only winning Ohio.
um, check again

Nationally, they do well. Not as good at state polling

Michingan poll is like Dem +8 seems high
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

FLBear5630 said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

boognish_bear said:


How many times in the last 50 years has Nevada voted to the right of Arizona.
That one item screams the polling is nonsense.
NV has a strong influx of CA Conservatives, my Uncle former Navy P3 Orion Nav and his buddies all moved there. Think ID light...


Based on 2020 results it would require Net 100,000 likely Republican voters moving into Nevada over less than four years to reach Arizona 2020 voting %. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Nevada has several factors that have helped Trump but inbound migration simply isn't enough people to shift it that far.

A far more plausible likelihood is that the polls are wrong.
Check the numbers. Perfectly plausible, CA is a ****-show, they are losing a ton.


NEVADA: 2020 Census
No, it isn't.



When total growth is under 100,000
Less the number that are not voter eligible
Less the number that are eligible but not registered to vote
Less the number eligible to vote but not leaning Republican.

Not perfectly plausible.
Ok, there is something nefarious going on. That is really what you want.
Or some pollsters use questionable methodology which inherently leads to erroneous results.




I just read an article on this. Specifically what is happening in n AZ and NV. I am not saying the source is good or not. Just that it seems to be plausible.

Matches what my Uncle has said


https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1155/arizona-and-nevada-have-lost-tens-of-thousands-of
article uses the word "add" in ways that can mislead.

Nationally, there is a slight long-term trend of GOP increasing its share of registrations and Dems declining, with the two parties near parity. The big winner, though, is independents. Lots of people see crazy on both sides (woke vs Trump) and are checking out - independents tend to be drama averse, not consumed by politics the way partisans are. In time, new candidates (on both sides) will likely claw some share back from independents. (the percentages involved in this analysis are not large, barely statistically noteworthy.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters/

Within that overall dynamic, conservatives are leaving blue states for places like Tx, FL, etc..... Tx GOP tracks voter trends closely, and it indicates that in-migrants to Tx from blue states are voting more red than Texas itself, so the dynamic is a positive one (for Tx, at least) and it would seem reasonable to presume that is the same effect in AZ, NV, etc....

whiterock
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4th and Inches said:

Realitybites said:

boognish_bear said:




This is actually a problem. Rasmussen is one of tbe few Trump leaning polls that doesn't oversample Democrats, and it shows Harris ahead in one and within the margin of fraud in two with Trump only winning Ohio.
um, check again

Nationally, they do well. Not as good at state polling

Michingan poll is like Dem +8 seems high
Rasmussen polls a +2 Democrat demographic.
4th and Inches
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whiterock said:

4th and Inches said:

Realitybites said:

boognish_bear said:




This is actually a problem. Rasmussen is one of tbe few Trump leaning polls that doesn't oversample Democrats, and it shows Harris ahead in one and within the margin of fraud in two with Trump only winning Ohio.
um, check again

Nationally, they do well. Not as good at state polling

Michingan poll is like Dem +8 seems high
Rasmussen polls a +2 Democrat demographic.
nationally
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Redbrickbear
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KaiBear
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Such obsession with various polls is irrelevant.

Voter 'harvesting' in key precincts, the stupidity of much of our electorate, and the overwhelming Dem control of the national media will produce the same result as in 2020.

As the Republican hierarchy has learned nothing since 2020.
boognish_bear
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4th and Inches
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Trump's 2024 YouGov polling numbers vs his YouGov 2020 numbers

Hispanic: 32% in 2020 -> now 41% in 2024

Black: 9% -> 17%

Men: 44% -> 54%

Women: 37% -> 44%

Seniors: 45% -> 57%

Remember Biden only squeaked by in the Electoral College by less than 50,000 votes across 3 states

He also can win in 2024 with one less state due changes in electorals
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Mothra
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KaiBear said:

Such obsession with various polls is irrelevant.

Voter 'harvesting' in key precincts, the stupidity of much of our electorate, and the overwhelming Dem control of the national media will produce the same result as in 2020.

As the Republican hierarchy has learned nothing since 2020.
Add a bitter, re-tread 78-year-old who lost the last election as the R's candidate to the list. The Rs did themselves no favors when they once again hitched their horse to Trump. I suspect most any other R candidate at this point would be kicking Kamala's ass. As it stands, I suspect the Rs lose another close one.

I just pray that Trump is gone, and the country is still here in 2028.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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The fun and games have started at the DNC

Redbrickbear
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boognish_bear said:

The fun and games have started at the DNC



Liberals just don't have the masculinity required anymore for a 1968 style DNC riot

Fighting it out of blocks in hand to hand combat with the Irish and Polaks of the Chicago police


4th and Inches
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Redbrickbear said:

boognish_bear said:

The fun and games have started at the DNC



Liberals just don't have the masculinity required anymore for a 1968 style DNC riot

Fighting it out of blocks in hand to hand combat with the Irish and Polaks of the Chicago police



i think you will be surprised, there are large groups in Chicago ready to pop off
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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