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whiterock
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8:36p, 9/14/24
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whiterock
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8:42p, 9/14/24
CNN…

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Jack Bauer
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9:52p, 9/14/24
What the F is this - kindergarten? "But JD Vance is weird"

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ScottS
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 10:36p, 9/14/24
Jack Bauer said:
What the F is this - kindergarten? "But JD Vance is weird"




She the one that opened the windows to breath the riot smoke.
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J.R.
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10:37p, 9/14/24
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.
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whiterock
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In reply to J.R. • 11:26p, 9/14/24
J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.

Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
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whiterock
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11:26p, 9/14/24
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4th and Inches
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In reply to whiterock • 7:12a, 9/15/24
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.
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KaiBear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 7:49a, 9/15/24
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

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Osodecentx
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In reply to J.R. • 9:10a, 9/15/24
J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.


My favorite is the gateway pundit
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whiterock
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In reply to KaiBear • 9:18a, 9/15/24
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
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Oldbear83
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In reply to KaiBear • 9:18a, 9/15/24
Neither claim is true.
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KaiBear
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9:56a, 9/15/24


Trump played right into ABC's hands.

Got flustered and defensive.

Yeah, the MAGA hardcore can't visualize Trump failing at anything……but independents know better.

So the sake of my family and the country at large ….hope Trump wins. But if he loses historians will look back at this debate as a big reason why.
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 10:22a, 9/15/24
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to KaiBear • 11:28a, 9/15/24
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

lol, really? Did he? Polling of the best from previous years are siding with him being at EV to popular win. Polling showing Harris ahead are the typical missed by 5 points crew.

You gov said about 20% of those polled said they were not going to vote for Harris now after Taylor swift endorsement vs 8 for Harris.

12% is a big number..
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4th and Inches
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In reply to sombear • 11:30a, 9/15/24
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
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sombear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 11:52a, 9/15/24
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to sombear • 11:56a, 9/15/24
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
sure.. we are probably 2weeks away from getting real polls anyway, the race is tightening, send money polls are coming.
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J.R.
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In reply to whiterock • 12:34p, 9/15/24
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.

Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
didn't answer the basic question
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Oldbear83
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In reply to sombear • 12:37p, 9/15/24
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.
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sombear
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 12:46p, 9/15/24
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

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Oldbear83
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In reply to sombear • 1:14p, 9/15/24
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 1:43p, 9/15/24
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?


Why? She is feeling emboldened. Scary man was not so scary.

Meanwhile Trump and Vance are stuck on Summerfield stories that are being debunked daily. Smells like a set-up, as usual Trump took the bait and will not let it go.

Dems are having fun. They have him talking about stuff that has nothing to do with the issues. When will he not take the bait.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 1:51p, 9/15/24
"Why? She is feeling emboldened. Scary man was not so scary."

Historically, the candidate who loses wants another shot.

And judging from multiple sources, Harris failed to accomplish what she needed with target voters.

Anyone can throw a pep rally for people who already like them. Harris needs to win over voters who - still - say they have not heard her policies.
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sombear
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 2:19p, 9/15/24
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
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Osodecentx
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 2:21p, 9/15/24
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?


Why? She is feeling emboldened. Scary man was not so scary.

Meanwhile Trump and Vance are stuck on Summerfield stories that are being debunked daily. Smells like a set-up, as usual Trump took the bait and will not let it go.

Dems are having fun. They have him talking about stuff that has nothing to do with the issues. When will he not take the bait.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/15/us/harris-trump-election
Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio, a Republican, said in an interview on ABC News that the claim that migrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating pets was "a piece of garbage that was simply not true."
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Osodecentx
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In reply to sombear • 2:23p, 9/15/24
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
Three: debating this elderly man is low hanging fruit
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KaiBear
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In reply to Osodecentx • 2:30p, 9/15/24
Osodecentx said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
Three: debating this elderly man is low hanging fruit


Dems feel the same about the assets of baby boomers.
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Osodecentx
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In reply to KaiBear • 2:39p, 9/15/24
KaiBear said:
Osodecentx said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
Three: debating this elderly man is low hanging fruit


Dems feel the same about the assets of baby boomers.
Yep. If there is another debate, let's hope Trump prepares this time.
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william
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2:45p, 9/15/24
A Vote for Orange is a Vote for Dale.

'Murrica!

- KKM

Go Bears!

Beat the Buffs!!
pro ecclesia, pro javelina
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Oldbear83
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In reply to sombear • 6:45p, 9/15/24
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
That's historically not true. And if you look back at the debate and listen to the focus groups, Harris failed to win over the groups she needed.

Go back to 2016. The media told us Clinton wiped the floor with Trump, but in retrospect Trump did a better job of messaging, especially in speaking to battleground-state voters.

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sombear
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 7:08p, 9/15/24
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
That's historically not true. And if you look back at the debate and listen to the focus groups, Harris failed to win over the groups she needed.

Go back to 2016. The media told us Clinton wiped the floor with Trump, but in retrospect Trump did a better job of messaging, especially in speaking to battleground-state voters.

The polls, forecasts, and betting markets show she gained voters.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to sombear • 7:23p, 9/15/24
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
That's historically not true. And if you look back at the debate and listen to the focus groups, Harris failed to win over the groups she needed.

Go back to 2016. The media told us Clinton wiped the floor with Trump, but in retrospect Trump did a better job of messaging, especially in speaking to battleground-state voters.

The polls, forecasts, and betting markets show she gained voters.
No, the forecasts and betting markets are based on the polls, which say a variety of things.

The polls which show a gain for Harris do not show she gained support from undecided voters, but instead energized her base.

Reuters, for instance, said Harris won the debate but did not convince undecideds.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump-2024-09-11/

CNN said essentially the same thing, that Harris won the debate on style but did not answer the questions undecideds wanted answered.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/11/politics/debate-reaction-persuadable-voters/index.html

Same story from the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html

And NBC put it well - Voters gave Harris a look after the debate, but not a commitment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/undecided-voters-give-harris-look-not-commitment-debate-rcna170454


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whiterock
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In reply to J.R. • 8:35p, 9/15/24
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.

Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
didn't answer the basic question

LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
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whiterock
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In reply to Osodecentx • 8:38p, 9/15/24
Osodecentx said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?


Why? She is feeling emboldened. Scary man was not so scary.

Meanwhile Trump and Vance are stuck on Summerfield stories that are being debunked daily. Smells like a set-up, as usual Trump took the bait and will not let it go.

Dems are having fun. They have him talking about stuff that has nothing to do with the issues. When will he not take the bait.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/15/us/harris-trump-election
Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio, a Republican, said in an interview on ABC News that the claim that migrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating pets was "a piece of garbage that was simply not true."

Of course he would say that. To admit it makes him look bad It's Kemp/Raffensberger 2.0
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