2024

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ScottS
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9:16a, 9/18/24
Is it me or are they keeping Watz out of public view?
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 9:25a, 9/18/24
Jack Bauer said:


These kind of laws will of course be selectively enforced.

Make a deep fake of Trump? you wont get prosecuted

Make a deep fake of Harris? you will get prosecuted

I remember when they put a social media guy in Federal prison for a twitter joke...

[right-wing social media influencer was sentenced to seven months in federal prison on Wednesday for spreading falsehoods via Twitter, now known as X, in an effort to suppress Democratic turnout in the 2016 presidential election.

Prosecutors said Mackey, who had 58,000 Twitter followers, conspired... November of 2016 to post falsely that supporters of Democrat Hillary Clinton could vote for her by text message or social media post.

For example, they said, Mackey tweeted a photo of a woman standing in front of an "African Americans for Hillary" sign. "Avoid the Line. Vote from Home," the tweet said. "Text 'Hillary' to 59925."
U.S. Attorney Breon Peace said in a statement that Mackey "weaponized disinformation in a dangerous scheme to stop targeted groups, including black and brown people and women, from participating in our democracy."]




https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/18/far-right-influencer-voter-suppression-00122364
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sombear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 10:04a, 9/18/24
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
In fairness, GOP-leaning polls were way off in 2020 as well.

And if you look at state poll aggregates from 2020, they were not too bad.

The biggest concern for Trump right now is the sheer number of polls showing him down after the debate.
they arent talking about the 6 that show him up vs her 9

Its more even then they let on


What 6?
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 10:20a, 9/18/24
Jack Bauer said:
so Harris can no longer campaign in CA..
β€œThe Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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Jack Bauer
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10:29a, 9/18/24
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whitetrash
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 10:38a, 9/18/24
Jack Bauer said:
Are those Jeopardy answers? If so:


What is the presidency?

What is weight?
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FLBear5630
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 11:11a, 9/18/24
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
sombear said:
Bad Suffolk PA poll for Trump - down 3.


No, debate and Swift had no effect. Must be bad poll. Fake news.
correct assessment.

There is a clear break between the ones that messed up in 2020 and the ones that got it right. The ones that were right are polling Trump somewhere between an EV win and a popular vote win. The ones that were off by 4-6 points are showing Harris up by that which again makes it an EV win for Trump based on previous history.
Of course.

Trump is winning in a landslide.
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J.R.
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 12:01p, 9/18/24
Oldbear83 said:
J.R. said:
Oldbear83 said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.

Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
didn't answer the basic question

LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.
well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.

So who's the random whack job here?
you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibility


JR pretending to be the authority on credibility ...

I'm very credible. I don't not post on subject matter I know nothing about, unlike you old man. You just spew Fox blather.
You and I have very different ideas of credible. You pick fights with anyone with a different opinion, and seem pathologically incapable of posting without including an insult.

As for me, where polls are concerned I speak from more than two decades of experience, and that includes personal discussions with people like Frank Gallup and Scott Rasmussen shortly after he founded his polling group in 2003.

You bragged about your MBA in Finance. Mine was concentrated in Accounting, which is germane to this discussion because it's the accountants who see crashes coming when the C-suite guys think the gravy train will never end. It's the accountants who sweat out how much of your cash flow comes from Operations and who is driving spending. In Business we watch out for idiots with stupid Capital spending, in Politics we know to watch the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.

The thing about Trump 2017-20 is that from 2017-18 he faced headwinds from Republicans angry he won, and from 2019-20 he was faced with a very hostile Congress controlled by Democrats.

And before you fall back on your go-to 'someone needs a job' cheap shot, I have worked for over four decades with hard numbers, doing my best to keep idiots from causing layoffs through bad C-suite decisions.
Nah, I just said I had an MBA with a concentration in Finance and Economics after one of your acolytes told me I lack rudementary understanding of basic economics. I think I have a handle on economics. that's it.
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whiterock
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 1:44p, 9/18/24
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
In fairness, GOP-leaning polls were way off in 2020 as well.

And if you look at state poll aggregates from 2020, they were not too bad.

The biggest concern for Trump right now is the sheer number of polls showing him down after the debate.
Rass is a "GOP leaning" poll and it was off towards Dems in 2020

They constantly under estimate Trump. Trafalgar was the only one I saw that got way out in right field so to speak..

Rasmussen polls a universe that is +2 Democrat. They consistently have had higher approval ratings for Biden than other polling firms, at or near 50% for most of his term. Still have him in the 43-46% range . And yes, they also show Trump with a 2-pt lead.


Cannot write them off as some GOP friendly spin machine. They've been top 5 or better in accuracy the last several cycles.
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Jacques Strap
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2:30p, 9/18/24
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ScottS
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 3:00p, 9/18/24
Jack Bauer said:


Miss pee pee dossier resurfaces
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Osodecentx
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3:50p, 9/18/24


file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/33/03/565B0A6C-5B7E-4421-B91E-100CCE3847F8/IMG_6958.jpeg

Wednesday grifting
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whiterock
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4:34p, 9/18/24
Ex: this outfit is a player, not a pollster

The ones showing Harris with a big lead are over-sampling women to give her a bump.

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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to Jacques Strap • 4:41p, 9/18/24
Jacques Strap said:


According to CNBC at 2pm the Union will not endorse a candidate.
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boognish_bear
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In reply to whiterock • 4:51p, 9/18/24
whiterock said:
Ex: this outfit is a player, not a pollster

The ones showing Harris with a big lead are over-sampling women to give her a bump.



What is the purpose of trying to inflate the results? Are they thinking more people are likely to get out and vote if they think their candidate is going to be the winner? Trying to create perceived strength to sway independents?
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Jacques Strap
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5:01p, 9/18/24


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boognish_bear
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6:21p, 9/18/24
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boognish_bear
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8:09p, 9/18/24
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boognish_bear
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8:14p, 9/18/24
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ScottS
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8:28p, 9/18/24
The children of the community are the children of the community.
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boognish_bear
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9:37p, 9/18/24
As close as we are now I don't think the national stuff is very significant

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4th and Inches
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In reply to Aliceinbubbleland • 9:54p, 9/18/24
Aliceinbubbleland said:
Jacques Strap said:


According to CNBC at 2pm the Union will not endorse a candidate.
correct. National teamsters didnt endorse either

Several state teamster unions endorsed Harris this evening
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whiterock
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10:25p, 9/18/24
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historian
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In reply to boognish_bear • 12:22a, 9/19/24
boognish_bear said:
Serious issue not taken seriously until needed votes in Nov were on the line


"only" 7,000 illegal aliens in one section of the Texas border. And that's an improvement over the past two years. Are we supposed to be happy & celebrate? After the fascists under Biden, Harris, Mayorkas, etc violated our laws to bring in 10+ million illegals so that they could steal elections indefinitely? And they don't care about the crime wave these criminals have caused, their victims, or the economic disaster, etc. How much taxpayer money is being wasted to provide housing, food, health care, etc to these criminals while Americans do with less or without?
β€œIncline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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historian
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12:30a, 9/19/24
Vance confronts NYTimes reporter:

https://notthebee.com/article/jd-vance-took-this-new-york-times-reporter-out-behind-the-woodshed-during-a-wisconsin-rally

You gotta give the fascist propagandist credit for bring willing to talk to Vance in a hostile environment.
β€œIncline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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FLBear5630
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In reply to historian • 5:27a, 9/19/24
historian said:
boognish_bear said:
Serious issue not taken seriously until needed votes in Nov were on the line


"only" 7,000 illegal aliens in one section of the Texas border. And that's an improvement over the past two years. Are we supposed to be happy & celebrate? After the fascists under Biden, Harris, Mayorkas, etc violated our laws to bring in 10+ million illegals so that they could steal elections indefinitely? And they don't care about the crime wave these criminals have caused, their victims, or the economic disaster, etc. How much taxpayer money is being wasted to provide housing, food, health care, etc to these criminals while Americans do with less or without?


Can't cross and vote at this point. Now they are tough on the border. Too many will just gloss over. I fear another 4 years of Obama.
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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:11a, 9/19/24
FLBear5630 said:
historian said:
boognish_bear said:
Serious issue not taken seriously until needed votes in Nov were on the line


"only" 7,000 illegal aliens in one section of the Texas border. And that's an improvement over the past two years. Are we supposed to be happy & celebrate? After the fascists under Biden, Harris, Mayorkas, etc violated our laws to bring in 10+ million illegals so that they could steal elections indefinitely? And they don't care about the crime wave these criminals have caused, their victims, or the economic disaster, etc. How much taxpayer money is being wasted to provide housing, food, health care, etc to these criminals while Americans do with less or without?


Can't cross and vote at this point. Now they are tough on the border. Too many will just gloss over. I fear another 4 years of Obama.
yes, they most certainly can vote. Just because it's illegal, doesn't mean they won't do it. It's illegal to cross the border, ya know......

Moreover, there's "illegal" and then there's "illegal." It is illegal to murder someone, and also a very robust system of law, fortified with steel & concrete - police departments, court rooms and prisons - to relentlessly apprehend, prosecute, and incarcerate murders. None of that exists for illegal immigration. It is a crime for which there is no prison sentence. Just deportation, if/when the USG decides to be bothered with enforcement at all, which it does very sparingly. We deported ca 300k people last year, about one-month of illegal crossings, or 1.5% of the small end of the range of estimated total illegal alien population.

For example, we do not even have in place any verification methods to prove citizenship. So how on earth could we even detect it? Is it really outlandish to propose that with an illegal immigration population of at least 20m people that a few hundred thousand of them might vote illegally? Again, they CAME here illegally, so how could we suggest "oh, no....they'd never do THAT!"


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whiterock
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7:06a, 9/19/24
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7:06a, 9/19/24
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7:46a, 9/19/24
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7:50a, 9/19/24
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7:51a, 9/19/24
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8:10a, 9/19/24
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ScottS
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8:17a, 9/19/24
I know this.....gotta take PA
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KaiBear
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8:29a, 9/19/24
Unless one is a single issue voter with regards to abortion; I honestly have difficulty comprehending why anyone would vote for Harris.

Most of her support simply must be an anti Trump vote.

If the Republicans lose this election; the self recriminations are going to be epic.
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