2024

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historian
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The Founding Fathers were correct in rejecting democracy. They saw it as mob rule: dangerous, chaotic, & unpredictable. So they created a republic. And for good reason. A lynch mob is a good example of what democracy looks like in practice anyone who doesn't want to be lynched should completely reject the idea.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
4th and Inches
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KaiBear said:

Poll numbers are scaring Trump and his desperation is becoming evident.
his poll numbers are best he has ever had.. he is now pusbing for too bug to steal type numbers.. he is almost there

The best pollsters of last couple election cycles are polling trump as an EV win all the way up to a couple having Trump as a popular vote win..
Harrison Bergeron
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4th and Inches said:

KaiBear said:

Poll numbers are scaring Trump and his desperation is becoming evident.
his poll numbers are best he has ever had.. he is now pusbing for too bug to steal type numbers.. he is almost there

The best pollsters of last couple election cycles are polling trump as an EV win all the way up to a couple having Trump as a popular vote win..
This. The polls have never gotten Trump right. Not saying that he'll win for sure, but Trump consistently under-polls for several reasons.

Trump is a none quantity. The more people see Brown the less they like her. Even the left-wing, imperial media starting to acknowledge she's an idiot.
Oldbear83
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KaiBear said:

Poll numbers are scaring Trump and his desperation is becoming evident.
Rather the opposite.


https://sicem365.com/forums/7/topics/143524

boognish_bear
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Osodecentx
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boognish_bear said:




Better angels of ourselves
BUDOS
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That's pretty convincing. Unless there's some sort of October surprise to deflect the momentum.
BUDOS80
Oldbear83
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BUDOS said:

That's pretty convincing. Unless there's some sort of October surprise to deflect the momentum.
The problem with 'October Surprises' now, is that they have become expected, so any surprise is going to have to come from an unexpected direction.

I have heard that one possible 'surprise' would be Biden resigning as President so Harris would be POTUS when the election takes place. Trouble there is the timing:

Too soon, and Harris will be expected to start issuing Executive Orders that she promised she would do, even though most of those contradict positions she held for a long time before July; and

Too late, and it will look like a desperation stunt and make Harris look desperate.

That is, like so many things there are ways to make a move work and ways a move can backfire.

Harris' biggest problem is winning over Pennsylvania. She will win Philadelphia, but there is some doubt she can win Pittsburgh, and the fracking/coal regions of PA rejected Harris long ago. I expect Harris to make some kind of deal to get Fetterman to campaign for her, because without him she is toast in PA.

FLBear5630
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Oldbear83 said:

BUDOS said:

That's pretty convincing. Unless there's some sort of October surprise to deflect the momentum.
The problem with 'October Surprises' now, is that they have become expected, so any surprise is going to have to come from an unexpected direction.

I have heard that one possible 'surprise' would be Biden resigning as President so Harris would be POTUS when the election takes place. Trouble there is the timing:

Too soon, and Harris will be expected to start issuing Executive Orders that she promised she would do, even though most of those contradicts positions she held for a long time before July; and

Too late, and it will look like a desperation stunt and make Harris look desperate.

That is, like so many things there are ways to make a move work and ways a move can backfire.

Harris' biggest problem is winning over Pennsylvania. She will win Philadelphia, but there is some doubt she can win Pittsburgh, and the fracking/coal regions of PA rejected Harris long ago. I expect Harris to make some kind of deal to get Fetterman to campaign for her, because without him she is toast in PA.




I am not sure Fetterman will. Strangely, he has become a voice of reason in the Dem party.
Oldbear83
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Interesting article in RCP about Pennsylvania, especially this comment from a voter in PA

"f8Tempter


people talk about PA, but this is really 4 states worth of demographics. there is Philly, Scranton, Western PA, and south central. Philly is really the only place that is voting Dem here. Biden did well in Scranton in 2020 due to his roots there, but likely see large movement to trump up there in 2024. Western PA was already pro-trump and is likely even more pro trump due to Harris fracking comments and what happened in butler. South central is kinda of a wildcard, not sure *** is happening there. Dems milked mail in voting in south central in 2020, but Rs have caught up on that front so playing field is mostly even now. PA wnet Dem in 2020 due to 2 reasons- Covid and Riots in philly, and they have neither of this in 2024 to run on. Polls dont do well in PA as many people here are so saturated with political BS they ignore it, similar to Wisconsin. No one in PA is talking about trump indictments, and if they are its just a case in point to lawfare. I am also not seeing abortion rights playing well here (outside white burb women) as even most dems in PA are church-goers. All i hear about is economy and immigration. Just what I see on the ground looks like trump taking PA this year, likely by 2-4 points when its over."

https://www.realclearpennsylvania.com/articles/2024/09/27/is_closing_the_sale_with_inflation_voters_enough_for_trump_1061556.html



whiterock
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4th and Inches said:

KaiBear said:

Poll numbers are scaring Trump and his desperation is becoming evident.
his poll numbers are best he has ever had.. he is now pusbing for too bug to steal type numbers.. he is almost there

The best pollsters of last couple election cycles are polling trump as an EV win all the way up to a couple having Trump as a popular vote win..
Exactly. How can so many polling firms be so far out of the margin of error and still be included in polling averages?

historian
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FLBear5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

BUDOS said:

That's pretty convincing. Unless there's some sort of October surprise to deflect the momentum.
The problem with 'October Surprises' now, is that they have become expected, so any surprise is going to have to come from an unexpected direction.

I have heard that one possible 'surprise' would be Biden resigning as President so Harris would be POTUS when the election takes place. Trouble there is the timing:

Too soon, and Harris will be expected to start issuing Executive Orders that she promised she would do, even though most of those contradicts positions she held for a long time before July; and

Too late, and it will look like a desperation stunt and make Harris look desperate.

That is, like so many things there are ways to make a move work and ways a move can backfire.

Harris' biggest problem is winning over Pennsylvania. She will win Philadelphia, but there is some doubt she can win Pittsburgh, and the fracking/coal regions of PA rejected Harris long ago. I expect Harris to make some kind of deal to get Fetterman to campaign for her, because without him she is toast in PA.




I am not sure Fetterman will. Strangely, he has become a voice of reason in the Dem party.

Fetterman might be the ONLY voice of reason among the fascists. Most act and talk like raving lunatics. They also lie repeatedly and their attacks on Trump are almost all projections of their own sins.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
KaiBear
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FLBear5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

BUDOS said:

That's pretty convincing. Unless there's some sort of October surprise to deflect the momentum.
The problem with 'October Surprises' now, is that they have become expected, so any surprise is going to have to come from an unexpected direction.

I have heard that one possible 'surprise' would be Biden resigning as President so Harris would be POTUS when the election takes place. Trouble there is the timing:

Too soon, and Harris will be expected to start issuing Executive Orders that she promised she would do, even though most of those contradicts positions she held for a long time before July; and

Too late, and it will look like a desperation stunt and make Harris look desperate.

That is, like so many things there are ways to make a move work and ways a move can backfire.

Harris' biggest problem is winning over Pennsylvania. She will win Philadelphia, but there is some doubt she can win Pittsburgh, and the fracking/coal regions of PA rejected Harris long ago. I expect Harris to make some kind of deal to get Fetterman to campaign for her, because without him she is toast in PA.




I am not sure Fetterman will. Strangely, he has become a voice of reason in the Dem party.


Agreed


Find myself liking him more and more.

Glad to see him apparently recovering his ability to speak coherently.
Realitybites
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FLBear5630 said:

not sure Fetterman will. Strangely, he has become a voice of reason in the Dem party.


I'll admit that this absolutely wasn't on my Bingo card.
historian
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One reason Babylon Bee is so brilliant an great is that there satire is believable and often becomes reality. Two Fetterman examples,

https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-issue-nationwide-fetterman-recall

https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-hoping-fettermans-car-crash-caused-enough-brain-damage-that-hell-become-one-of-them-again
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
whiterock
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two polling firms sampling non-identical universes showing similar results. Note accuracy ratings, and remember context of recent Gallup party affiliation poll results at +3 GOP.
Doc Holliday
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Redbrickbear
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https://www.theamericanconservative.com/will-speaker-johnson-eat-his-words-on-a-december-omnibus/

[On Wednesday, the House and Senate approved a government funding stopgap measure called a continuing resolution, averting a government shutdown on the eve of the November 5 election.

The Senate, led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, seemed content from the start to circumvent the statutorily mandated appropriations process. Unsurprisingly, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the lame-duck leader of the Senate GOP, once again found common cause with his Democratic counterpart to spend more of the American people's money and concentrate power in congressional leadership.

Johnson, meanwhile, attempted to get one major concession for conservatives while funding the government through March. The speaker initially tried to pass a six-month continuing resolution with the SAVE Act attached, which would have protected American elections from illegal immigrant votes. Voting on that plan was delayed and failed because 14 Republicans joined Democrats in voting no.]

historian
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Leftists think Kamala is around to win handily. The voters think otherwise:

https://notthebee.com/article/for-the-first-time-ever-more-americans-identify-as-republicans-than-democrats

Meanwhile CBS demonstrates real journalism on the thousands of rapists & murderers Joe & the Ho released into America.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
boognish_bear
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Osodecentx
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boognish_bear said:




Crypto grift?
boognish_bear
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Osodecentx said:

boognish_bear said:




Crypto grift?


The gift shop of his presidential library is going to be bad ass
Harrison Bergeron
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Am I the only one that occasionally ponders "Queers for Palestine" is a real think and weep for our future.

A significant amount of left-wing radicals are completely bananas.
drahthaar
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boognish_bear said:

Osodecentx said:

boognish_bear said:




Crypto grift?


The gift shop of his presidential library is going to be bad ass


Bear8084
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boognish_bear said:

Osodecentx said:

boognish_bear said:




Crypto grift?


The gift shop of his presidential library is going to be bad ass


boognish_bear
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Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630
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Redbrickbear said:




All that is missing is the Pledge furniture polish and plastic covering for the chair.
BUDOS
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Good points! Looks like some are thinking that the "surprise" is on its way. However, I don't see it making any difference, do you?


Judge Chutkan Readies October Surprise Pre-Election Publication of Jack Smith's Secret January 6 Brief Against Trump
https://l.smartnews.com/p-KxG4v/A3oh0M
BUDOS80
Realitybites
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"Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election. Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it!Let me explain: if even 1 in 20 illegals become citizens per year, something that the Democrats are expediting as fast as humanly possible, that would be about 2 million new legal voters in 4 years.The voting margin in the swing states is often less than 20 thousand votes. That means if the "Democratic" Party succeeds, there will be no more swing states!!Moreover, the Biden/Harris administration has been flying "asylum seekers", who are fast-tracked to citizenship, directly into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is a surefire way to win every election.America then becomes a one-party state and Democracy is over. The only "elections" will be the Democratic Party primaries. This already happened in California many years ago, following the 1986 amnesty.The only thing holding California back from extreme socialism and suffocating government policies is that people can leave California and still remain in America. Once the whole country is controlled by one party, there will be no escape.Everywhere in America will be like the nightmare that is downtown San Francisco."

- Elon Musk
KaiBear
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Realitybites said:

"Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election. Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it!Let me explain: if even 1 in 20 illegals become citizens per year, something that the Democrats are expediting as fast as humanly possible, that would be about 2 million new legal voters in 4 years.The voting margin in the swing states is often less than 20 thousand votes. That means if the "Democratic" Party succeeds, there will be no more swing states!!Moreover, the Biden/Harris administration has been flying "asylum seekers", who are fast-tracked to citizenship, directly into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is a surefire way to win every election.America then becomes a one-party state and Democracy is over. The only "elections" will be the Democratic Party primaries. This already happened in California many years ago, following the 1986 amnesty.The only thing holding California back from extreme socialism and suffocating government policies is that people can leave California and still remain in America. Once the whole country is controlled by one party, there will be no escape.Everywhere in America will be like the nightmare that is downtown San Francisco."

- Elon Musk


If Harris wins Elon Musk will be declared a 'threat to democracy' and Dems will call for a bullseye to be placed on his back.
Harrison Bergeron
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BUDOS said:

Good points! Looks like some are thinking that the "surprise" is on its way. However, I don't see it making any difference, do you?


Judge Chutkan Readies October Surprise Pre-Election Publication of Jack Smith's Secret January 6 Brief Against Trump
https://l.smartnews.com/p-KxG4v/A3oh0M
I am sure it will be a reliable as Hillary Clinton's Russian-authored Steele dossier; but small-minded little brownshirts like you will lap it up while praising Juicy Smollett as a man of integrity.

You think it will tell us what the 200-400 federal agents were doing?
You think it will tell us why Pelosi intentionally did not grant security requests?
You think it will finally give truth to the lie that police officers were seriously injured and killled?
ScottS
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Harrison Bergeron said:

Am I the only one that occasionally ponders "Queers for Palestine" is a real think and weep for our future.

A significant amount of left-wing radicals are completely bananas.


It might be a real thing but they won't do a parade over there.
GrowlTowel
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BUDOS said:

Good points! Looks like some are thinking that the "surprise" is on its way. However, I don't see it making any difference, do you?


Judge Chutkan Readies October Surprise Pre-Election Publication of Jack Smith's Secret January 6 Brief Against Trump
https://l.smartnews.com/p-KxG4v/A3oh0M
historian
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Realitybites said:

"Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election. Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it!Let me explain: if even 1 in 20 illegals become citizens per year, something that the Democrats are expediting as fast as humanly possible, that would be about 2 million new legal voters in 4 years.The voting margin in the swing states is often less than 20 thousand votes. That means if the "Democratic" Party succeeds, there will be no more swing states!!Moreover, the Biden/Harris administration has been flying "asylum seekers", who are fast-tracked to citizenship, directly into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is a surefire way to win every election.America then becomes a one-party state and Democracy is over. The only "elections" will be the Democratic Party primaries. This already happened in California many years ago, following the 1986 amnesty.The only thing holding California back from extreme socialism and suffocating government policies is that people can leave California and still remain in America. Once the whole country is controlled by one party, there will be no escape.Everywhere in America will be like the nightmare that is downtown San Francisco."

- Elon Musk

The anti-"Democrat" Party are actually fascists although they will never admit it and probably don't know what the word actually means.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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