4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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LOL

Perfect

At least you MAGA boys are consistent.
Yet if Harris wins you will be stunned, wondering why all the soccer moms jumped ship .

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i know alot of real soccer moms and they voting Trump..

Now crazy ass liberal nuts you would label as a soccer mom like my relatives wife.. yeah, she voting Harris but she voted Biden so thats not an improvement for Harris.

Harris needs to gain voters to offset the ones she is losing in the minorities

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Trump is behind even on the FOX poll.

At this point I suspect 95% have already made up their mind on who they are going to vote for.

If Trump wins it's going to be a big surprise.

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ignore Fox polling.. complete dogsht


Interesting the guys at the top of that list lean heavy to Trump and the bottom of that list lean heavy to Harris..

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Using polling error from one election cycle isn't a great idea. 3-5 cycles, yes.

Adriacus Peratuun said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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LOL

Perfect

At least you MAGA boys are consistent.
Yet if Harris wins you will be stunned, wondering why all the soccer moms jumped ship .

---

i know alot of real soccer moms and they voting Trump..

Now crazy ass liberal nuts you would label as a soccer mom like my relatives wife.. yeah, she voting Harris but she voted Biden so thats not an improvement for Harris.

Harris needs to gain voters to offset the ones she is losing in the minorities

---

Trump is behind even on the FOX poll.

At this point I suspect 95% have already made up their mind on who they are going to vote for.

If Trump wins it's going to be a big surprise.

---

ignore Fox polling.. complete dogsht


Interesting the guys at the top of that list lean heavy to Trump and the bottom of that list lean heavy to Harris..

---

Using polling error from one election cycle isn't a great idea. 3-5 cycles, yes.

---

you'll never guess who was right in the previous cycles too? The top guy has been right both in the potus election and the 22 midterms.

Also, Fox has been repeatedly wrong cycle after cycle

4th and Inches said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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LOL

Perfect

At least you MAGA boys are consistent.
Yet if Harris wins you will be stunned, wondering why all the soccer moms jumped ship .

---

i know alot of real soccer moms and they voting Trump..

Now crazy ass liberal nuts you would label as a soccer mom like my relatives wife.. yeah, she voting Harris but she voted Biden so thats not an improvement for Harris.

Harris needs to gain voters to offset the ones she is losing in the minorities

---

Trump is behind even on the FOX poll.

At this point I suspect 95% have already made up their mind on who they are going to vote for.

If Trump wins it's going to be a big surprise.

---

ignore Fox polling.. complete dogsht


Interesting the guys at the top of that list lean heavy to Trump and the bottom of that list lean heavy to Harris..

---

Using polling error from one election cycle isn't a great idea. 3-5 cycles, yes.

---

you'll never guess who was right in the previous cycles too? The top guy has been right both in the potus election and the 22 midterms.

Also, Fox has been repeatedly wrong cycle after cycle

---

Then why post a chart from only one cycle? Wouldn't it be more effective to post a chart of data from a wider date range?

Even when some data overlaps, small snapshots of data always look manipulative.

Adriacus Peratuun said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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LOL

Perfect

At least you MAGA boys are consistent.
Yet if Harris wins you will be stunned, wondering why all the soccer moms jumped ship .

---

i know alot of real soccer moms and they voting Trump..

Now crazy ass liberal nuts you would label as a soccer mom like my relatives wife.. yeah, she voting Harris but she voted Biden so thats not an improvement for Harris.

Harris needs to gain voters to offset the ones she is losing in the minorities

---

Trump is behind even on the FOX poll.

At this point I suspect 95% have already made up their mind on who they are going to vote for.

If Trump wins it's going to be a big surprise.

---

ignore Fox polling.. complete dogsht


Interesting the guys at the top of that list lean heavy to Trump and the bottom of that list lean heavy to Harris..

---

Using polling error from one election cycle isn't a great idea. 3-5 cycles, yes.

---

you'll never guess who was right in the previous cycles too? The top guy has been right both in the potus election and the 22 midterms.

Also, Fox has been repeatedly wrong cycle after cycle

---

Then why post a chart from only one cycle? Wouldn't it be more effective to post a chart of data from a wider date range?

Even when some data overlaps, small snapshots of data always look manipulative.

---

do you have a chart that shows data across multiple? Sure, I could go hunt for something like that but i dont have it available. That is the most recent potus election data.

Also, look at how off the high level polls in the RCP and 538 averages were..

4th and Inches said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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LOL

Perfect

At least you MAGA boys are consistent.
Yet if Harris wins you will be stunned, wondering why all the soccer moms jumped ship .

---

i know alot of real soccer moms and they voting Trump..

Now crazy ass liberal nuts you would label as a soccer mom like my relatives wife.. yeah, she voting Harris but she voted Biden so thats not an improvement for Harris.

Harris needs to gain voters to offset the ones she is losing in the minorities

---

Trump is behind even on the FOX poll.

At this point I suspect 95% have already made up their mind on who they are going to vote for.

If Trump wins it's going to be a big surprise.

---

ignore Fox polling.. complete dogsht


Interesting the guys at the top of that list lean heavy to Trump and the bottom of that list lean heavy to Harris..

---

Using polling error from one election cycle isn't a great idea. 3-5 cycles, yes.

---

you'll never guess who was right in the previous cycles too? The top guy has been right both in the potus election and the 22 midterms.

Also, Fox has been repeatedly wrong cycle after cycle

---

Then why post a chart from only one cycle? Wouldn't it be more effective to post a chart of data from a wider date range?

Even when some data overlaps, small snapshots of data always look manipulative.

---

do you have a chart that shows data across multiple? Sure, I could go hunt for something like that but i dont have it available. That is the most recent potus election data.

Also, look at how off the high level polls in the RCP and 538 averages were..

---

We have a ton of proprietary data. What is always clear is that small sample sizes are inherently the most misleading and least to be trusted.

538, 270, RCP…….the benefits and problems of averaging results lives in all of them. Merely to differing degrees.

Polling to predict results is problematic. Polling to find trends is far more reliable.
The best analysts are taking trends and applying them to the adapt of historical election results and then applying data of population movement, population age data/trends, etc. to predict outcomes.

There are some reliable takeaways: polling using college students is garbage, the greater the voter orientation correction required = the higher the likelihood of error compounding, polling collection processes by 75-80% of pollsters is absolute garbage, polling true up procedures by 90% of pollsters is "at least" poor, polling averaging is nonsense, the gold nuggets [if any] exist primarily in the tabs.

For example: suburban Hispanic married women in Arizona b/t 25-50 in age, AA men b/t 35-50 in Philadelphia, union voters by profession/union and geography, and similar.

The averages system only works when you use all the polls and not just the ones you want to.. several polling average groups have removed some of the more accruate pollsters

I have spoken with several of the pollsters and they continue to make changes to adapt, some work and others mess them up. trafalgar thought they had it right in 2020 but ended up over stating Trump. He was on point in 2016.

4th and Inches said:

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The averages system only works when you use all the polls and not just the ones you want to.. several polling average groups have removed some of the more accruate pollsters

I have spoken with several of the pollsters and they continue to make changes to adapt, some work and others mess them up. trafalgar thought they had it right in 2020 but ended up over stating Trump. He was on point in 2016.

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The "averages system" will never [absent some fluke miracle] work.

Assuming an even distribution of error is crazy. Creating one is impossible.

4th and Inches said:

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Jack Bauer said:

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"The View" is going to grill Kamala Harris - says Brain Tater Stelter.

CNN’s ⁦@brianstelter⁩ defends Harris’s media schedule: “She‘s also on ‘The View’ tomorrow. I was talking to producers of ‘The View’ last night. They have some sharp questions for her as well.” pic.twitter.com/FyU46t6zde

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) October 7, 2024

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she will gain no support from that interview.. all the view watchers already votin for her

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Such a tough interview!!!

WOW: Kamala just blamed FEMA’s failure on Hurricane Helene on Trump pic.twitter.com/3bFORvv62C

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 8, 2024

NEW: There was a physical altercation between Jill and Kamala staffers in the White House after Joe’s press room last week, began with accusations that the Bidens were undermining Kamala deliberately, per WH official

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) October 7, 2024

This is terrible and would almost certainly impact voting in 4 weeks

8PM EDT: This is nothing short of astronomical. I am at a loss for words to meteorologically describe you the storms small eye and intensity. 897mb pressure with 180 MPH max sustained winds and gusts 200+ MPH. This is now the 4th strongest hurricane ever recorded by pressure on… pic.twitter.com/QFdqFYFI7o

— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) October 8, 2024

Biden gives zero F's at this point...

Kamala yesterday: DeSantis is "playing political games" with Hurricane Milton

Biden today: DeSantis "has been cooperative" and "is doing a great job."pic.twitter.com/8MLaw4aODK

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 8, 2024

Jack Bauer said:

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This is terrible and would almost certainly impact voting in 4 weeks

8PM EDT: This is nothing short of astronomical. I am at a loss for words to meteorologically describe you the storms small eye and intensity. 897mb pressure with 180 MPH max sustained winds and gusts 200+ MPH. This is now the 4th strongest hurricane ever recorded by pressure on… pic.twitter.com/QFdqFYFI7o

— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) October 8, 2024

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soo weather weapon?

Jack Bauer said:

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NEW: There was a physical altercation between Jill and Kamala staffers in the White House after Joe’s press room last week, began with accusations that the Bidens were undermining Kamala deliberately, per WH official

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) October 7, 2024

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Incumbent vice presidents have one more advantage, or rather they have it if their administration is popular near the end of the term, as Bill Clinton's was. The VP can credibly claim a share of that success. The recurrent theme is, "I not only supported all these great policies, I help devise and implement them, right alongside the (popular) president."

If the administration is unpopular, the vice president never utters those words.

Until now:

Hostin: Would you have done anything differently than President Biden during the past four years?

Kamala: "There is not a thing that comes to mind."

Straight from the horse's mouth.pic.twitter.com/IRY93CJ6Qe

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 8, 2024

Howard Stern - what happened?

The man who pushed the FCC and the lines of censorship is now afraid of...SNL.

Howard Stern, who has become a complete and total pussy, says he feels awful when Kamala gets mocked on SNL and was nervous for the interview because he’s so desperate for her to win: pic.twitter.com/MMuuHQNvXB

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) October 8, 2024

Wow! That's gonna hurt! Don't see how that is going to expand her base. She could have at least said she liked cats.

My background is in law enforcement. Yes, I own a glock.pic.twitter.com/gTbjrEMCPA

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 8, 2024

boognish_bear said:

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I guess Trump thinks Fox News is balanced at least.

Jacques Strap said:

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My background is in law enforcement. Yes, I own a glock.pic.twitter.com/gTbjrEMCPA

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 8, 2024

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Two lies back to back.

FLBear5630 said:

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Jacques Strap said:

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My background is in law enforcement. Yes, I own a glock.pic.twitter.com/gTbjrEMCPA

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 8, 2024

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Law Enforcement? She is an attorney.

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A corrupt and incompetent attorney

historian said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Jacques Strap said:

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My background is in law enforcement. Yes, I own a glock.pic.twitter.com/gTbjrEMCPA

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 8, 2024

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Law Enforcement? She is an attorney.

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A corrupt and incompetent attorney

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And she failed the bar exam.

EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I guess Trump thinks Fox News is balanced at least.

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"Trump thinks"? LOL

Mark Halperin on what he's hearing from inside the campaigns.

"There are not an insignificant number of Republicans who say the race is effectively over," says @MarkHalperin. "That, as I reported a month ago, Trump is going to lock up the Sunbelt states, probably all four, but at least three. And then he’s going to win Pennsylvania, and… pic.twitter.com/fs4XTtDskL

— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 8, 2024

LOL

What is the point of these random nobodies posting their theories ?

Although no one knows for sure most polls show Harris winning.

If DeSantis was the Republican nominee these silly videos would make sense. But Trump is absolutely hated by millions outside of the MAGA crowd.

For the sake of the country I hope Trump wins, but it would a surprising result.

KaiBear said:

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LOL

What is the point of these random nobodies posting their theories ?

Although no one knows for sure most polls show Harris winning.

If DeSantis was the Republican nominee these silly videos would make sense. But Trump is absolutely hated by millions outside of the MAGA crowd.

For the sake of the country I hope Trump wins, but it would a surprising result.

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Mark Halperin is not a Republican. He's a long-time soft-blue insider's insider in the beltway media institution.

Virtually all of the polls are within the margin of error, one side or the other.

Trump is in a stronger position than he was in 2016 or 2020, by several percentage points. A victory will not be surprising at all. it's a toss-up.

Oldbear83 said:

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Osodecentx said:

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EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I guess Trump thinks Fox News is balanced at least.

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"Trump thinks"? LOL

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Compared to Harris or Walz, yes he does .

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Or Biden!

No, Trump is hated by the uniparty elites and the fraction of the population who are unthinking sheep swallowing the propaganda. But more and more real Americans are thinking for themselves and concluding that Trump is the better option. They remember what Trump's first term was like and they know what America's abysmal reality is today. Many will vote for Trump and many people will be surprised by the results.

Osodecentx said:

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EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I guess Trump thinks Fox News is balanced at least.

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"Trump thinks"? LOL

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Careful. You voted for Biden who has no brain.