The Blue Wall being Harris's best path, but PA lagging a point or so behind WI and MI, is pretty much exactly the scenario where She Shoulda Picked Shapiro.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2024
2024
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Last: 2 hrs ago by Redbrickbear
She picks Shapiro, the Muslims in Michigan fully revolt and she loses that state.boognish_bear said:The Blue Wall being Harris's best path, but PA lagging a point or so behind WI and MI, is pretty much exactly the scenario where She Shoulda Picked Shapiro.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2024
The problem of representing a party built on a societally unhappy coalition.
Understand her dilemma. Not unhappy she faced it.
AgreedRealitybites said:
Go to 270towin.com and construct your best estimate for Tuesday, and give your reasons why.
Mine: (1) The recent court rulings in NV and VA allowing illegal and unverified ballots keep those states blue. (2) I think even the McCainiacs in Arizona have had enough. (3) Unfortunately I don't believe that the razor thin margins in the WI, MI, and PA are enough to overcome the steal there...and in recent history all three vote as a block.
Harris merely has to hold WI, MI, and PA to win. Trump has to hold AZ and GA and pull an upset in one of the three Harris states to win.
So unfortunately I don't see a path to victory despite the positive press. I hope I'm wrong.
Sad to say, but Harris receives a freed hand to continue the degradation of the United States next Tuesday.
There will an immediate increase in the millions of illegals entering the United States.
An incredible invasion, in numbers never allowed by any other country in the history of mankind.
Maybe NE2 won't matter….
Election 2024: Harris +1 in New Hampshire, +3 in Minnesota
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 30, 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris has a three-point lead over former President Donald Trump in Minnesota, but the presidential contest is nearly tied in New Hampshire.
More At Rasmussen Reports:https://t.co/oaN8rmLJt2 pic.twitter.com/0k5qwb51rv
ShooterTX said:wow!Redbrickbear said:Aubrey Plaza is angry at the Puerto Rico joke. When you face the righteous wrath of women, all you can do is humble yourself and promise to be better. They may not accept your apology, that’s fine. It is on you to fix it. pic.twitter.com/D58TgS7zcm
— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) October 30, 2024
That's one hell of a beta cuck!
I think he is being sarcastic
The D-Day meme is a very powerful force that breaks you out of postwar egalitarian liberalism.
— Eighth Century Woodchipper 🌳🪓 (@BonifaceOption) October 29, 2024
It forces you to reckon with what your great-grandfather believed, what he was fighting for, what precisely was it he was willing to give his life to pass down to you.
None of your… https://t.co/C0mMgtL3v8
Quote:
Nevada, Arizona, NC, and Georgia they think Trump will win each by at least 1.6
And Nebraska CD2 is "someone will be really wrong".
End Game: watch Wisconsin…….that state is the key log.
If that is really how it plays out, Harris 270, Trump 268, 100% of the responsibility for the Harris win goes directly to the Nebraska GOP, it's Republican Governor, and it's Republican majority legislature who refused to exercise the power they held to prevent this.
The Nebraska GOP redrew the CD2 district lines after the 2020 Census to go from 50/50 to R+3.Realitybites said:Quote:
Nevada, Arizona, NC, and Georgia they think Trump will win each by at least 1.6
And Nebraska CD2 is "someone will be really wrong".
End Game: watch Wisconsin…….that state is the key log.
If that is really how it plays out, Harris 270, Trump 268, 100% of the responsibility for the Harris win goes directly to the Nebraska GOP, it's Republican Governor, and it's Republican majority legislature who refused to exercise the power they held to prevent this.
Don Bacon (R) won re-election in CD2 in 2022 by 2.66% in a down year for Rs. He won reflection in 2020 under the old boundaries by 4.9%. He was leading in the Remington Poll in August by 2%.
The subsequent public polls since that time are by CNN, NY Times/Siena, & YouGov……three piles of crap.
If CD2 is lost it will be a mild upset. Should Nebraska Rs make the state Winner Takes All? Yes.
Would a loss of CD2 be exclusively on them? No.
The Trump Bump should get the job done in CD2 but nothing is certain. Harris poured a massive amount into the district. Not fully answering that spending is on Trump's campaign.
Ha!
We’re not the garbage, we’re *taking out* the garbage. pic.twitter.com/cwNQjVeFLn
— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) October 30, 2024
Realitybites said:
Go to 270towin.com and construct your best estimate for Tuesday, and give your reasons why.
Mine: (1) The recent court rulings in NV and VA allowing illegal and unverified ballots keep those states blue. (2) I think even the McCainiacs in Arizona have had enough. (3) Unfortunately I don't believe that the razor thin margins in the WI, MI, and PA are enough to overcome the steal there...and in recent history all three vote as a block.
Harris merely has to hold WI, MI, and PA to win. Trump has to hold AZ and GA and pull an upset in one of the three Harris states to win.
So unfortunately I don't see a path to victory despite the positive press. I hope I'm wrong.
Most plausible scenario she has. And not one to pooh-pooh. But it it's illustrative that her best case scenario is also her only one. She has to run the table.
And I don't think she will win NV…..
Michigan can’t/won’t disqualify an illegal vote cast by a Chinese national because it’s already “been put through a tabulator.” https://t.co/zPo6WledKH pic.twitter.com/bvvmTAOpQh
— Chuck Ross (@ChuckRossDC) October 30, 2024
University of Michigan student who is from China and not a U.S. citizen allegedly voted Sunday in Ann Arbor and is being charged with two crimes, six days before a pivotal presidential election.
The filing of the charges was revealed Wednesday in a statement from Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson's office and the Washtenaw County Prosecutor's office. The press release didn't identify the student but described him only as "a non-U.S. citizen."
The 19-year-old individual from China was legally present in the United States but not a citizen, which meant he couldn't legally cast a ballot, according to information from the Michigan Secretary of State's office. He registered to vote on Sunday using his UM student identification and other documentation establishing residency in Ann Arbor, he signed a document identifying himself as a U.S. citizen and his ballot was entered into a tabulator, according to the Secretary of State's office.
Bannon spitballing?
🚨BREAKING: Steve Bannon announces that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, Laura Loomer will serve as White House Communications Director.
— Jack (@jackunheard) October 30, 2024
Someone went to jail for that, when they posted a meme about voting being on the wrong day.
— Bill Brasky (@BillBrasky11) October 30, 2024
This is worse. This could be a serious offense of campaign finance law if money is involved in a registered legitimate PAC.
Trump: Kamala Harris isn't fit to be president of the United States, in no way is she fit. She doesn't have the intellect, stamina or that special quality that real leaders, people like Brett Favre have. pic.twitter.com/JLGetKkmjU
— Acyn (@Acyn) October 30, 2024
🚨 Rolling up on the back of a garbage truck to the Trump Campaign event in North Carolina.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 30, 2024
With @VivekGRamaswamy
Massive love. Listen to the crowd.
This is how we win 👊🏼 pic.twitter.com/4ApcwHjyNm
whiterock said:Realitybites said:
Go to 270towin.com and construct your best estimate for Tuesday, and give your reasons why.
Mine: (1) The recent court rulings in NV and VA allowing illegal and unverified ballots keep those states blue. (2) I think even the McCainiacs in Arizona have had enough. (3) Unfortunately I don't believe that the razor thin margins in the WI, MI, and PA are enough to overcome the steal there...and in recent history all three vote as a block.
Harris merely has to hold WI, MI, and PA to win. Trump has to hold AZ and GA and pull an upset in one of the three Harris states to win.
So unfortunately I don't see a path to victory despite the positive press. I hope I'm wrong.
Most plausible scenario she has. And not one to pooh-pooh. But it it's illustrative that her best case scenario is also her only one. She has to run the table.
And I don't think she will win NV…..
Nevada has been crooked since Senator Reid set up his political machine.
Hopefully much of that machine died with him.
After landing in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Trump conducted a brief press conference in a garbage truck which he then rode to his rally.
BREAKING — Trump arrives in Wisconsin to a MAGA garbage truck pic.twitter.com/gQ4dzr46II
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) October 30, 2024
#BREAKING: President Trump is riding a garbage truck.
— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) October 30, 2024
The left is going to lose their minds. pic.twitter.com/Smk1cQQQcp
Whatever happens, Trump has run a splendid campaign
BREAKING: Donald Trump gets picked up in Green Bay, Wisconsin by a garbage truck, just one day after Joe Biden called Trump supporters "garbage." pic.twitter.com/jqjiX6a43V
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 30, 2024
BRETT FAVRE: “I want to address the comment that Joe Biden made yesterday that said the supporters of Donald Trump are garbage.. How dare he say that. Looking out I see police officers, teachers, nurses, grandparents, students.. everyday Americans that make this country great” pic.twitter.com/bywdbKLHWA
— America (@america) October 30, 2024
Love him or hate him, you have to admit that Donald Trump really is a master at “iconic moments”. pic.twitter.com/FPNwgaOxXd
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 30, 2024
Donald Trump no longer planning to attend Penn State vs. Ohio State game https://t.co/7bbBi4Bcn6
— Penn State Football (@psufootball) October 30, 2024
The Chicago shooting of a Jewish man is Democratic politics in one tragic act. Biden-Harris open the border, illegal immigrant comes in. Illegal immigrant shoots Jewish man and yells "Allahu Akbar." Chicago's mayor and police say they can't discern a motive. https://t.co/1RZ4XqLFRK
— liel leibovitz (@liel) October 30, 2024
A 23-year-old man was critically injured Saturday following a shootout with Chicago police in the West Rogers Park neighborhood on the city’s Far North Side, according to authorities. https://t.co/zk8H24blkL
— Chicago Tribune (@chicagotribune) October 27, 2024
If that happens, it will also be the result of massive fraud in all the swing states and elsewhere. I've already seen reports of it in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, NJ, & even Texas. It's probably more widespread but I haven't seen or don't remember the reports.
Jacques Strap said:Michigan can’t/won’t disqualify an illegal vote cast by a Chinese national because it’s already “been put through a tabulator.” https://t.co/zPo6WledKH pic.twitter.com/bvvmTAOpQh
— Chuck Ross (@ChuckRossDC) October 30, 2024
University of Michigan student who is from China and not a U.S. citizen allegedly voted Sunday in Ann Arbor and is being charged with two crimes, six days before a pivotal presidential election.
The filing of the charges was revealed Wednesday in a statement from Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson's office and the Washtenaw County Prosecutor's office. The press release didn't identify the student but described him only as "a non-U.S. citizen."
The 19-year-old individual from China was legally present in the United States but not a citizen, which meant he couldn't legally cast a ballot, according to information from the Michigan Secretary of State's office. He registered to vote on Sunday using his UM student identification and other documentation establishing residency in Ann Arbor, he signed a document identifying himself as a U.S. citizen and his ballot was entered into a tabulator, according to the Secretary of State's office.
Naturally the Michigan state govt, dominated by the fascists, is part of the fraud. Does anyone seriously believe that this blatant fraudulent vote is an isolated incident? That would be exceedingly foolish, especially with the Dems long history of shenanigans.
Left: You nutjobs and your conspiracies!
also left: we already have the election results!
also left: we already have the election results!
ABC accidentally aired election results of Harris winning PA by 5% with 100% in pic.twitter.com/VTJCjH92uh
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 30, 2024
***?
JUST IN: Democratic Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold tried to cover up how her office leaked passwords for voting systems until she was called out.
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) October 30, 2024
This is the same person who:
-Sent voter registration mailers to 30,000 non-citizens
-Messaged voters to vote after they… pic.twitter.com/J62oUqq8oI
The share of White people that vote Republican has not substantially changed in decades (except 2008).
— Sulla (@ichthys30) October 31, 2024
Neither has voter patterns for any other race really.
Democratic voting gains are almost entirely fueled by replacement migration https://t.co/EVNB24TBGP pic.twitter.com/TKijVgXIN4
Worked the numbers and got this for what its worth:
For states/districts which went to one party in both 2016 and 2020 by at least 10 points, and that same party leads this year in both the RCP and 270tw averages by 10+ points, Democrats have 11 states and 2 districts for 154 EV, and Republicans have 18 states;
Add in states/districts in which one party in both 2016 and 2020 by at least 5 points, and that same party leads this year in both the RCP and 270tw averages by 5+ points, Democrats add 3 more states and rise to 186 EV, while Republicans add 5 more states and rise to 188 EV;
Add in state/districts in which one party in both 2016 and 2020 by 0.1-4.9 points, and that same party leads this year in both the RCP and 270tw averages by 0.1-4.9 points, Democrats add 4 states and rise to 223 EV, while Republicans add 2 more states and rise to 234 EV.
So for the final remaining seven states and two districts at stake, Trump needs 36 EV while Harris needs 47 EV.
And it comes down to Pennsylvania (19 EV), Georgia (16 EV), Michigan (15 EV), Arizona (11 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV), Nevada (6 EV), Maine (2 EV), and the 2nd district of Nebraska and Maine's 2nd district with 1 EV each.
I'd say Trump is in a much better place.
For states/districts which went to one party in both 2016 and 2020 by at least 10 points, and that same party leads this year in both the RCP and 270tw averages by 10+ points, Democrats have 11 states and 2 districts for 154 EV, and Republicans have 18 states;
Add in states/districts in which one party in both 2016 and 2020 by at least 5 points, and that same party leads this year in both the RCP and 270tw averages by 5+ points, Democrats add 3 more states and rise to 186 EV, while Republicans add 5 more states and rise to 188 EV;
Add in state/districts in which one party in both 2016 and 2020 by 0.1-4.9 points, and that same party leads this year in both the RCP and 270tw averages by 0.1-4.9 points, Democrats add 4 states and rise to 223 EV, while Republicans add 2 more states and rise to 234 EV.
So for the final remaining seven states and two districts at stake, Trump needs 36 EV while Harris needs 47 EV.
And it comes down to Pennsylvania (19 EV), Georgia (16 EV), Michigan (15 EV), Arizona (11 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV), Nevada (6 EV), Maine (2 EV), and the 2nd district of Nebraska and Maine's 2nd district with 1 EV each.
I'd say Trump is in a much better place.
Redbrickbear said:The share of White people that vote Republican has not substantially changed in decades (except 2008).
— Sulla (@ichthys30) October 31, 2024
Neither has voter patterns for any other race really.
Democratic voting gains are almost entirely fueled by replacement migration https://t.co/EVNB24TBGP pic.twitter.com/TKijVgXIN4
It's not demographics. The Dems ard trying to steal the election and are not trying to hide it: millions of illegals voting all over the country. The Biden-Harris DoJ suing Virginia to keep illegals on the tolls do they can vote illegally (& losing thanks SCOTUS!!), multiple reports of illegals voting in several states, Dem operatives trying to trick voters in red areas into not voting, ballot harvesting measures, tens of thousands of fake ballots, drop boxes still being allowed anywhere, the promise that the counting will take days of weeks after the election (for 250 years that was unnecessary without advanced technology), and on snd on it goes.
If anyone has not seen the film "2000 Mules", you should. It explains the fraud of 2020 using many of the same techniques.
historian said:Redbrickbear said:The share of White people that vote Republican has not substantially changed in decades (except 2008).
— Sulla (@ichthys30) October 31, 2024
Neither has voter patterns for any other race really.
Democratic voting gains are almost entirely fueled by replacement migration https://t.co/EVNB24TBGP pic.twitter.com/TKijVgXIN4
It's not demographics..
Narrator: "it was in fact about demographics. American elections are increasingly just tribal/ethnic headcounts"
That’s a hell of an endorsement. 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 https://t.co/x6waA0d1Wu pic.twitter.com/Z5fnqS6BAU
— Lafayette Lee (@Partisan_O) October 30, 2024