With Trump the debate was the he automatically had power to have classified documents because he was POTUS which can also be applied to him not having to hand over the documents.Mothra said:I don't disagree with you, for the most part. However, I think where you err is assuming that the two men were treated differently simply because one is establishment and the other is not. Again, the failure to charge Biden might be because Trump obstructed justice by stonewalling the govt., whereas Biden simply handed the docs over.Doc Holliday said:It was against the law for Biden to even have those documents: its not even up for debate, he straight up didn't have the power to retain those documents. He gets a pass because he's establishment.Mothra said:Meh. I think the issue here is the obstruction of justice charge, which isn't present in Biden's case. Trump literally could have turned the docs over on multiple occasions after they were requested (repeatedly), and if he had done so, this most likely all goes away. It was his decision to thumb his nose at the govt. that ultimately led to the raid and charges. Like I said, it is yet another one of his self-inflicted wounds.Doc Holliday said:Even if they aren't bogus, DC doesn't hold others accountable so they're effectively demonstrating that the rules only apply to specific political affiliation.Mothra said:The documents charges aren't bogus, and will be pretty easy to prove. Yet another one of Trump's self-inflicted wounds. But we don't need another Trump term. There are much better, and less morally-reprehensible, candidates than Trump.Doc Holliday said:Taking Trump out on bogus charges would destroy this country.Mothra said:Hoping and praying for a Trump conviction for the good of the country and the party.whiterock said:RDS would likely win an open floor vote over Haley. That certainly would be who I'd campaign and vote for.Mothra said:Here is pulling for a Trump jail sentence, and DeSantis stepping in.GrowlTowel said:Mothra said:boognish_bear said:#NikkiHaley is playing the long game.
— Sophia A. Nelson (@IAmSophiaNelson) February 25, 2024
She thinks #DonaldTrump will get convicted and be sentenced before November 2024.
She will be the GOP's only option left standing if she has actual delegates.#SouthCarolinaPrimary
And she's probably right.
She won't be the only option, even if she has some delegates. That is why all candidates suspend their campaigns as opposed to withdrawing. Even if Trump is convicted (current schedule of trials does not look favorable for a conviction before the convention), his delegates still exist. They will be the ones that have the most influence on the alternate.
Highly doubtful they pick Haley.
Rules change at every convention. The Rules Committee starts meeting well before the convention starts and the nominee gets effective control over the committee. In general, a nominee cannot "hand over" his/he delegates, per se. They can, however, endorse an alternative and it is reasonable to expect a very high percentage of those delegates to flow with the endorsement.
The analysis that Haley is hoping to position herself as the last candidate in the race should Trump to be disqualified by conviction is not unreasonable. That is not, however, her best shot at the nomination. She would be a near lock to pick up both endorsement and delegates if she was the designated VP. If she is able to run a best-case contest and pick up 40-ish percent of the delegates down the stretch, Trump would be hard-pressed not to pick her....to unify the party. Reagan and Bush could hardly speak to one another as the 1980 campaign wound down. They ended up a successful team.....the conservative insurgent and the establishment player. It's a great structure. Trump would like to avoid it by winning big, and Haley would like to force it by running strong. We will know more after SuperTuesday.
As a general rule of thumb, the longer it goes before Trump announces his VP selection, the greater the chance it will be Haley.
That in itself will destroy the country.
So there are significant distinctions between this case and Biden's - namely, Trump's blatant refusal to turn over the docs when requested. That was extremely stupid, but that's Trump.
Trump is not a perfect candidate and is extremely flawed. If you convict him and confine him to Mar A Lago on house arrest with an ankle monitor, he will have even more support than he currently does and he's currently polling higher than he's ever polled in the aggregate.
It's very much the case that if you attack Trump you only make him stronger. This is what the media and establishment and never trumpers fail to understand. Ignoring him would have made him weak...everyone attacking him is doing the opposite.
Trump may indeed have more support from his base if he gets arrested, but I don't think it helps him much outside of that, and most likely erodes his support, based on the polling.
With Biden he took these classified documents long before he was POTUS and never had power to retain those classified documents.
Trump might have more than 80 million votes this election. He has 75M last election and he's damn near polling double now compared to what he was polling then. Waiting to the last minute to convict or even jail him is going to piss off tens of millions of people. They can't do that and expect everything to go back to normal.