The more people are exposed to Harris, the more they do not like her.

Harrison Bergeron said:

---

The more people are exposed to Harris, the more they do not like her.

---

Same with Trump.

whiterock said:

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TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

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So will Trump be winning handily, and then bam, Dems get a massive 3AM bump thanks to some questionable ballots?

Always wondered how much cheating went on, or whether Biden the potato won fair and square against the most voted for republican of all time.

---

3 points.

Dems can pull 2 points out of a hat. GOP hasta be 3 points up to get beyond the margin of fraud.

At 3pts of fraud, there are just too many anomalies to hide…

---

Reasonable thought process.

Going to be difficult to get and hold a 3 pt margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Illinois , and Arizona if all of the voter anomalies of 2020 persist in 2024.

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

---

LOL

Back to your 'son' foolishness.

Must be ultra bored .

Despite Trump publicly haranguing Kemp and Raffensperger, they took the legal steps to fix the "3am bump" issue in Georgia. Even lost the MLB All Star game for it (thanks Stacy Abrams). Trump wins by a not so tiny margin in GA.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

---

Emerson poll July 2020 had Biden up 4%

Pretty accurate actually.

Rueters has Harris up 2% right now.

It's gonna be close.

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

---

Emerson poll July 2020 had Biden up 4%

Pretty accurate actually.

Rueters has Harris up 2% right now.

It's gonna be close.

---

Not when you get into the weeds. the variance in the polls comes from the weighting, especially the old RDI mix and CLM (Conservative/Liberal/Moderate) mix,

Also, Reuters/Ipsos undervalued Trump in its final poll by 1.86 points in 2020 and 7.09 points in 2016.

Emerson did not have a final poll for 2016 but undervalued Trump by 1.86 points in 2020.

KaiBear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

---

LOL

Back to your 'son' foolishness.

Must be ultra bored .

---

Not bored, but if you piss yourself in real life as much as you do in your posts, you need Depends as much as Biden does.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Trump is in the best position he has enjoyed this campaign, and out come the quitters.

Wow.

Look, sometimes Trump says things that are plain stupid, but this is not 2016 and this is not 2020.

The Republicans have the closest thing to unity since 2004, a clear advantage in voter enthusiasm, and leads in every battleground state.

And out come the whiners about how we can't win.

Shut the F up.

I don't know if you are stupid enough to believe what you post, you think it's some kind of funny trolling, or what, but just stop.

---

did you not get your Geritol today?

Oldbear83 said:

---

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

---

Emerson poll July 2020 had Biden up 4%

Pretty accurate actually.

Rueters has Harris up 2% right now.

It's gonna be close.

---

Not when you get into the weeds. the variance in the polls comes from the weighting, especially the old RDI mix and CLM (Conservative/Liberal/Moderate) mix,

Also, Reuters/Ipsos undervalued Trump in its final poll by 1.86 points in 2020 and 7.09 points in 2016.

Emerson did not have a final poll for 2016 but undervalued Trump by 1.86 points in 2020.

---

Man I hope you are right. The way the states break down, Trump can lose the pop vote by 2% and win the electoral college. If it is dead even, say 46% to 46% Trump easily wins.

J.R. said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Trump is in the best position he has enjoyed this campaign, and out come the quitters.

Wow.

Look, sometimes Trump says things that are plain stupid, but this is not 2016 and this is not 2020.

The Republicans have the closest thing to unity since 2004, a clear advantage in voter enthusiasm, and leads in every battleground state.

And out come the whiners about how we can't win.

Shut the F up.

I don't know if you are stupid enough to believe what you post, you think it's some kind of funny trolling, or what, but just stop.

---

did you not get your Geritol today?

---

Don't quit your day job, comedy is not your strong suit, J.R.

You do much better ignoring the illegal migrants renting from your properties.

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

---

Emerson poll July 2020 had Biden up 4%

Pretty accurate actually.

Rueters has Harris up 2% right now.

It's gonna be close.

---

Yes it is going to be close. Dems have the MO currently. Ms. Harris closed the gap. I just just don't think Trump will actually debate her.

Oldbear83 said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Trump is in the best position he has enjoyed this campaign, and out come the quitters.

Wow.

Look, sometimes Trump says things that are plain stupid, but this is not 2016 and this is not 2020.

The Republicans have the closest thing to unity since 2004, a clear advantage in voter enthusiasm, and leads in every battleground state.

And out come the whiners about how we can't win.

Shut the F up.

I don't know if you are stupid enough to believe what you post, you think it's some kind of funny trolling, or what, but just stop.

---

did you not get your Geritol today?

---

Don't quit your day job, comedy is not your strong suit, J.R.

You do much better ignoring the illegal migrants renting from your properties.

---

you do you, I do me. you can get depends on Amazon, btw.

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

---

Emerson poll July 2020 had Biden up 4%

Pretty accurate actually.

Rueters has Harris up 2% right now.

It's gonna be close.

---

Not when you get into the weeds. the variance in the polls comes from the weighting, especially the old RDI mix and CLM (Conservative/Liberal/Moderate) mix,

Also, Reuters/Ipsos undervalued Trump in its final poll by 1.86 points in 2020 and 7.09 points in 2016.

Emerson did not have a final poll for 2016 but undervalued Trump by 1.86 points in 2020.

---

Man I hope you are right. The way the states break down, Trump can lose the pop vote by 2% and win the electoral college. If it is dead even, say 46% to 46% Trump easily wins.

---

Let's start with that. Trump won 2016 with 46.09% of the Popular Vote, because he targeted key battleground states, and in July 2016 he was averaging 39.2% support in the polls (41.4% in July 2020 and finished with 46.86%). Trump consistently was undervalued in polls, start to finish.

Trump currently is pulling an average of 47.0% support in the RCP average against Harris, and if the last two elections are any guide he's really closer to 50%.

Also, some experts have already noted that given Trump/Biden's high unfavorable numbers that Harris would enjoy a bounce from Independents at first, but that will fade once she has to defend her positions .., something Harris has not done in recent memory.

It takes more than the headline to understand a poll. Look at voter enthusiasm, breakdown by party and ideology, and of course if it's there always look for who the voters think will win (a hidden tell that has been right the last five Presidential elections).

Harris' problem is that she has never had to run a national campaign. She has 105 days to figure out now how to win a dozen states that don't know her beyond a name. That's the race.

J.R. said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Trump is in the best position he has enjoyed this campaign, and out come the quitters.

Wow.

Look, sometimes Trump says things that are plain stupid, but this is not 2016 and this is not 2020.

The Republicans have the closest thing to unity since 2004, a clear advantage in voter enthusiasm, and leads in every battleground state.

And out come the whiners about how we can't win.

Shut the F up.

I don't know if you are stupid enough to believe what you post, you think it's some kind of funny trolling, or what, but just stop.

---

did you not get your Geritol today?

---

Don't quit your day job, comedy is not your strong suit, J.R.

You do much better ignoring the illegal migrants renting from your properties.

---

you do you, I do me. you can get depends on Amazon, btw.

---

Thanks but unlike you, I don't need 'em.

Oldbear83 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

---

LOL

Back to your 'son' foolishness.

Must be ultra bored .

---

Not bored, but if you piss yourself in real life as much as you do in your posts, you need Depends as much as Biden does.

---

Same game….round 7.

Jump uninvited in my civil discussion with someone else.

Immediately drop an F bomb ……I ignore it.

Then jump in again with your 'son' routine .

I laugh it off.

Jump in still again with another childishly bizarre comment.

Yet if I finally respond in kind…..you whine about how rudely and unjustly you have been treated .

Have a nice day.

Wow, your post was both fact-free and petulant!


Bet you are proud of the effort, though.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Wow, your post was both fact-free and petulant!


Bet you are proud of the effort, though.

---

Yeah, I figured you would keep it up.

Always have.

Have a nice day.

See my 6:11 post? Notice how it's on-topic and does not reek of panic?

You might want to try that sometime.

Oldbear83 said:

---

See my 6:11 post? Notice how it's on-topic and does not reek of panic?

You might want to try that sometime.

---

Making you whine doesn't amuse me anymore after all these renditions .



Have a nice day .

So you don't prefer to post substance.

Ok then.

Oldbear83 said:

---

You seem to think lying counts as pith.

"have a nice day".

---

LOL

You seem to forget just how many posters you have engaged with this same bizarre routine.

Guess at your advanced age developing new material is just too much of a challenge.

Goodnight

KaiBear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

You seem to think lying counts as pith.

"have a nice day".

---

LOL

You seem to forget just how many posters you have engaged with this same bizarre routine.

Guess at your advanced age developing new material is just too much of a challenge.

Goodnight

---

Sticking to the topic, I laid out the facts, and you threw a rant.

I guess facts are your version of "too much of a challenge'.

We are going to win unless we give up.

Sad to see how many are quitting while we are winning.

This thread has become the O.K.Bear fight

Oldbear83 said:

---

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Please take a look at the polls in July 2020 versus now.

Hysteria is not a game plan, son.

---

Emerson poll July 2020 had Biden up 4%

Pretty accurate actually.

Rueters has Harris up 2% right now.

It's gonna be close.

---

Not when you get into the weeds. the variance in the polls comes from the weighting, especially the old RDI mix and CLM (Conservative/Liberal/Moderate) mix,

Also, Reuters/Ipsos undervalued Trump in its final poll by 1.86 points in 2020 and 7.09 points in 2016.

Emerson did not have a final poll for 2016 but undervalued Trump by 1.86 points in 2020.

---

Man I hope you are right. The way the states break down, Trump can lose the pop vote by 2% and win the electoral college. If it is dead even, say 46% to 46% Trump easily wins.

---

Let's start with that. Trump won 2016 with 46.09% of the Popular Vote, because he targeted key battleground states, and in July 2016 he was averaging 39.2% support in the polls (41.4% in July 2020 and finished with 46.86%). Trump consistently was undervalued in polls, start to finish.

Trump currently is pulling an average of 47.0% support in the RCP average against Harris, and if the last two elections are any guide he's really closer to 50%.

Also, some experts have already noted that given Trump/Biden's high unfavorable numbers that Harris would enjoy a bounce from Independents at first, but that will fade once she has to defend her positions .., something Harris has not done in recent memory.

It takes more than the headline to understand a poll. Look at voter enthusiasm, breakdown by party and ideology, and of course if it's there always look for who the voters think will win (a hidden tell that has been right the last five Presidential elections).

Harris' problem is that she has never had to run a national campaign. She has 105 days to figure out now how to win a dozen states that don't know her beyond a name. That's the race.

---

She wont have to figure it out. The hard part is over, the logistics nightmare is the Primary season. Election is on autopilot, go into Convention in Aug, TV in Sept, Debate in October, election day. They made this as easy as possible.

Question is will there be enough time for her warts to show? She got selection bump, right into Convention bump, after that about 60 days. Not alot of time. She will go into early voting still on the high of being selected...

Bumps generally last about a week. Harris will show the real Harris soon enough.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Bumps generally last about a week. Harris will show the real Harris soon enough.

---

Let's hope so. Her voting record in the Senate is scary. I fear she will be insulated by the media. They didn't like Biden or he was too easy to go after, they seem to love her.