The fundamentals haven't changed. It's a toxic environment for incumbents. She will get her earned media over taking over the campaign. Then she'll get some with her convention. And the alphabet media will run extraordinarily hyperbolic hype narratives. And we'll see some polls with implausible universes, like the D+6 in the most recent Marist poll, that show a surging campaign. (GOP actually has been running a point or two ahead of Dems in party ID.)

To translate all that narrative into reality, Dems have to completely change the public's mind on what issues are most important. They have to convince voters that DEI isn't a problem. That the border is perfectly fine. That the economy is roaring. That there is no inflation. That woke teachers and 14-year olds getting sex-change treatment is perfectly normal and proper.

Dems are pretty good, but they have a very tough road ahead of them, and their new leader is not a particularly gifted politician.

whiterock said:

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The fundamentals haven't changed. It's a toxic environment for incumbents. She will get her earned media over taking over the campaign. Then she'll get some with her convention. And the alphabet media will run extraordinarily hyperbolic hype narratives. And we'll see some polls with implausible universes, like the D+6 in the most recent Marist poll, that show a surging campaign. (GOP actually has been running a point or two ahead of Dems in party ID.)

To translate all that narrative into reality, Dems have to completely change the public's mind on what issues are most important. They have to convince voters that DEI isn't a problem. That the border is perfectly fine. That the economy is roaring. That there is no inflation. That woke teachers and 14-year olds getting sex-change treatment is perfectly normal and proper.

Dems are pretty good, but they have a very tough road ahead of them, and their new leader is not a particularly gifted politician.

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They have to convince voters that Trump is a bigger danger than Harris. She is the likely nominee because Biden's age problems made it impossible to convince voters that Trump was a bigger danger than Biden.

Trump will undoubtedly help the Dems do what they need to do.

Frank Galvin said:

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whiterock said:

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The fundamentals haven't changed. It's a toxic environment for incumbents. She will get her earned media over taking over the campaign. Then she'll get some with her convention. And the alphabet media will run extraordinarily hyperbolic hype narratives. And we'll see some polls with implausible universes, like the D+6 in the most recent Marist poll, that show a surging campaign. (GOP actually has been running a point or two ahead of Dems in party ID.)

To translate all that narrative into reality, Dems have to completely change the public's mind on what issues are most important. They have to convince voters that DEI isn't a problem. That the border is perfectly fine. That the economy is roaring. That there is no inflation. That woke teachers and 14-year olds getting sex-change treatment is perfectly normal and proper.

Dems are pretty good, but they have a very tough road ahead of them, and their new leader is not a particularly gifted politician.

---

They have to convince voters that Trump is a bigger danger than Harris. She is the likely nominee because Biden's age problems made it impossible to convince voters that Trump was a bigger danger than Biden.

Trump will undoubtedly help the Dems do what they need to do.

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Don't get out over your skis. Trump has his favorability number up into mid-single digits (negative). Highest favorables ever with most polling firms. And ahead of Harris......

whiterock said:

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Frank Galvin said:

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whiterock said:

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The fundamentals haven't changed. It's a toxic environment for incumbents. She will get her earned media over taking over the campaign. Then she'll get some with her convention. And the alphabet media will run extraordinarily hyperbolic hype narratives. And we'll see some polls with implausible universes, like the D+6 in the most recent Marist poll, that show a surging campaign. (GOP actually has been running a point or two ahead of Dems in party ID.)

To translate all that narrative into reality, Dems have to completely change the public's mind on what issues are most important. They have to convince voters that DEI isn't a problem. That the border is perfectly fine. That the economy is roaring. That there is no inflation. That woke teachers and 14-year olds getting sex-change treatment is perfectly normal and proper.

Dems are pretty good, but they have a very tough road ahead of them, and their new leader is not a particularly gifted politician.

---

They have to convince voters that Trump is a bigger danger than Harris. She is the likely nominee because Biden's age problems made it impossible to convince voters that Trump was a bigger danger than Biden.

Trump will undoubtedly help the Dems do what they need to do.

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Don't get out over your skis. Trump has his favorability number up into mid-single digits (negative). Highest favorables ever with most polling firms. And ahead of Harris......

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I am confident in his ability to screw it up.

Frank Galvin said:

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whiterock said:

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The fundamentals haven't changed. It's a toxic environment for incumbents. She will get her earned media over taking over the campaign. Then she'll get some with her convention. And the alphabet media will run extraordinarily hyperbolic hype narratives. And we'll see some polls with implausible universes, like the D+6 in the most recent Marist poll, that show a surging campaign. (GOP actually has been running a point or two ahead of Dems in party ID.)

To translate all that narrative into reality, Dems have to completely change the public's mind on what issues are most important. They have to convince voters that DEI isn't a problem. That the border is perfectly fine. That the economy is roaring. That there is no inflation. That woke teachers and 14-year olds getting sex-change treatment is perfectly normal and proper.

Dems are pretty good, but they have a very tough road ahead of them, and their new leader is not a particularly gifted politician.

---

Trump will undoubtedly help the Dems do what they need to do.

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Agreed.

Trump will continue to say and tweet politically self destructive comments. And when he doesn't the Dem controlled media will invent some.

By the time Election Day rolls around many independents will rediscover why they choked down their concerns and voted for Joe Biden.