KaiBear said:

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TenBears said:

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Financial catastrophe???? In this market I feel like I have a broken ATM machine spewing money in my living room. Employment up, gas down. I totally get why people don't like Kamala, but this fiction about the negative economy is just orange propaganda.

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Agree up to a point

My stocks are up 67% over the last 18 months. Going to liquidate everything within the next 10 business days. If others make even more money with me on the sidelines…..good for them.

However the majority of folks my wife and I know are struggling. Increased prices for food, gas, utilities, insurance and daycare are driving them crazy.

How this dichotomy translates regarding the election between Trump and Harris I have no idea.

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Data says that you'll be worse off in the long run than if you just stayed in.

Certain prices will come down if the demand slows too much -- that's already been happening in sectors that are more elastic, i.e. used cars, discretionary goods, etc. Economic growth is slowing, but the economy is not contracting....yet. But you can bank that the Fed will almost certainly be too late to lower rates fast enough to avoid a recession, if one ever comes.

Speaking of which, the Cleveland Fed states there's about a 60% chance of recession in the next year. Pretty high compared to normal...but just because there may be a recession doesn't mean that it will be anything like 2008, and it also doesn't mean the stock market will decline at all. They aren't anywhere near perfectly correlated in real-time.

Lot in the balance right now, near term. But long-term? You're probably better off putting your blinders on and riding it out, or even being prepared to put more cash in/rebalance when the opportunity arises.

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

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KaiBear said:

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TenBears said:

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Financial catastrophe???? In this market I feel like I have a broken ATM machine spewing money in my living room. Employment up, gas down. I totally get why people don't like Kamala, but this fiction about the negative economy is just orange propaganda.

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Agree up to a point

My stocks are up 67% over the last 18 months. Going to liquidate everything within the next 10 business days. If others make even more money with me on the sidelines…..good for them.

However the majority of folks my wife and I know are struggling. Increased prices for food, gas, utilities, insurance and daycare are driving them crazy.

How this dichotomy translates regarding the election between Trump and Harris I have no idea.

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I don't understand your point exactly about "agreeing to a point", tenbears claimed the bad economy was just orange propaganda. That statement is clearly false, there's clearly some good, but there's very real stats that show that the middle class is being wiped clean. It seems like tenbear's an out of touch white-collar guy gladly raking it in and closing his eyes to reality. So It's not propaganda but what is propaganda, is how the state run media gladly focuses on the "winners" while spending very little time on the majority of "losers" and paints an overly rosy picture, as they've been doing for 4 years. If Trump was the encumbent, then people like tenbears would certainly have a different "impression" on the state of the economy.

Additionally, you're a smart guy, I'm curious to your plan, liquidating the 67% win and moving to another asset(s) really does not put you much ahead since most assets have increased by 50% or more. Any good recommendations?

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I'm in firm belief that the process of deglobalization started during the Trump administration, has continued during the Biden administration, and will probably continue further no matter who wins next month.

A lot of industry is coming back to the US for a few reasons. 1) it is no longer cheap enough to let China make most things. 2) the high-value add products like various types of micro chips, cars, other complex goods, etc. are too important to offshore anymore. 3) the US military is becoming less and less interested in policing the sea lanes because of the sheer cost -- and also, because strategically it is less important as the Soviet system collapsed over 30 years ago, and China (while having a large Navy) doesn't have the capacity to compete with us and won't for decades. Oh by the way, China's population will be halved over the next 20-30 years.

Get ready. Organized labor is back in the US -- it's why Trump has been cozying up to the unions.

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

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KaiBear said:

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TenBears said:

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Financial catastrophe???? In this market I feel like I have a broken ATM machine spewing money in my living room. Employment up, gas down. I totally get why people don't like Kamala, but this fiction about the negative economy is just orange propaganda.

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Agree up to a point

My stocks are up 67% over the last 18 months. Going to liquidate everything within the next 10 business days. If others make even more money with me on the sidelines…..good for them.

However the majority of folks my wife and I know are struggling. Increased prices for food, gas, utilities, insurance and daycare are driving them crazy.

How this dichotomy translates regarding the election between Trump and Harris I have no idea.

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I don't understand your point exactly about "agreeing to a point", tenbears claimed the bad economy was just orange propaganda. That statement is clearly false, there's clearly some good, but there's very real stats that show that the middle class is being wiped clean. It seems like tenbear's an out of touch white-collar guy gladly raking it in and closing his eyes to reality. So It's not propaganda but what is propaganda, is how the state run media gladly focuses on the "winners" while spending very little time on the majority of "losers" and paints an overly rosy picture, as they've been doing for 4 years. If Trump was the encumbent, then people like tenbears would certainly have a different "impression" on the state of the economy.

Additionally, you're a smart guy, I'm curious to your plan, liquidating the 67% win and moving to another asset(s) really does not put you much ahead since most assets have increased by 50% or more. Any good recommendations?

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My son in law provide the stock picks.

He is a very smart CPA.

The profit is about 230k….which we will use toward buying a 2nd house somewhere overseas .


And I simply agree with Tenbears point.

Those with flexible cash have done well in this economy.
But most folks are far worse off now than under Trump.

Eh. Maybe. The demand for cheap crap is always high and we just don't build a lot of cheap crap here. Lots of crap just not cheap crap.

We built a display trailer recently and I needed to be able to run small equipment in it. It was important to me to use a US made inverter for a couple reasons. You could have bought a Chinese built inverter for like $50 that would do the job, $149 for a decent one and $300 for a nice one. I ended up paying about $700 to get a US made version. I really didn't even find many options, regardless of price point.

nein51 said:

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Eh. Maybe. The demand for cheap crap is always high and we just don't build a lot of cheap crap here. Lots of crap just not cheap crap.

We built a display trailer recently and I needed to be able to run small equipment in it. It was important to me to use a US made inverter for a couple reasons. You could have bought a Chinese built inverter for like $50 that would do the job, $149 for a decent one and $300 for a nice one. I ended up paying about $700 to get a US made version. I really didn't even find many options, regardless of price point.

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Yeah the Chinese built stuff will soon be more from Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, etc. places with better demographic structures and more room for cheap labor. But that's not the stuff I was talking about

mtenery14 said:

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nein51 said:

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Eh. Maybe. The demand for cheap crap is always high and we just don't build a lot of cheap crap here. Lots of crap just not cheap crap.

We built a display trailer recently and I needed to be able to run small equipment in it. It was important to me to use a US made inverter for a couple reasons. You could have bought a Chinese built inverter for like $50 that would do the job, $149 for a decent one and $300 for a nice one. I ended up paying about $700 to get a US made version. I really didn't even find many options, regardless of price point.

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Yeah the Chinese built stuff will soon be more from Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, etc. places with better demographic structures and more room for cheap labor. But that's not the stuff I was talking about

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If regulations were loosened you would see a lot of manufacturing come back to the U.S. but it's pretty unpopular to loosen environmental, worker protection, wage/hour protections.

nein51 said:

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mtenery14 said:

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nein51 said:

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Eh. Maybe. The demand for cheap crap is always high and we just don't build a lot of cheap crap here. Lots of crap just not cheap crap.

We built a display trailer recently and I needed to be able to run small equipment in it. It was important to me to use a US made inverter for a couple reasons. You could have bought a Chinese built inverter for like $50 that would do the job, $149 for a decent one and $300 for a nice one. I ended up paying about $700 to get a US made version. I really didn't even find many options, regardless of price point.

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Yeah the Chinese built stuff will soon be more from Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, etc. places with better demographic structures and more room for cheap labor. But that's not the stuff I was talking about

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If regulations were loosened you would see a lot of manufacturing come back to the U.S. but it's pretty unpopular to loosen environmental, worker protection, wage/hour protections.

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Yeah our government would rather ship the emissions, dangerous jobs, and cheap pay overseas just to say that they're doing good for the country/world. I don't disagree there.

mtenery14 said:

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nein51 said:

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mtenery14 said:

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nein51 said:

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Eh. Maybe. The demand for cheap crap is always high and we just don't build a lot of cheap crap here. Lots of crap just not cheap crap.

We built a display trailer recently and I needed to be able to run small equipment in it. It was important to me to use a US made inverter for a couple reasons. You could have bought a Chinese built inverter for like $50 that would do the job, $149 for a decent one and $300 for a nice one. I ended up paying about $700 to get a US made version. I really didn't even find many options, regardless of price point.

---

Yeah the Chinese built stuff will soon be more from Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, etc. places with better demographic structures and more room for cheap labor. But that's not the stuff I was talking about

---

If regulations were loosened you would see a lot of manufacturing come back to the U.S. but it's pretty unpopular to loosen environmental, worker protection, wage/hour protections.

---

Yeah our government would rather ship the emissions, dangerous jobs, and cheap pay overseas just to say that they're doing good for the country/world. I don't disagree there.

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moving emissions overseas only hurts the environment. The US typically does a better job controlling emissions than the rest of the world. Hiding the emissions overseas is simply a shell game.

KaiBear said:

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TenBears said:

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KaiBear said:

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TenBears said:

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Financial catastrophe???? In this market I feel like I have a broken ATM machine spewing money in my living room. Employment up, gas down. I totally get why people don't like Kamala, but this fiction about the negative economy is just orange propaganda.

---

Agree up to a point

My stocks are up 67% over the last 18 months. Going to liquidate everything within the next 10 business days. If others make even more money with me on the sidelines…..good for them.

However the majority of folks my wife and I know are struggling. Increased prices for food, gas, utilities, insurance and daycare are driving them crazy.

How this dichotomy translates regarding the election between Trump and Harris I have no idea.

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Yes sir. I agree with your analysis, except I think the lower and middle classes (whatever the hell that even means now) have and always will struggle, regardless of administration.

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That is also true.

But data on personal debt shows it has increased severely over the last 3.5 years.

Now will those people blame Biden Harris policies or stick with their traditional Democratic roots and hope for the best ?

Again, I have no idea.

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Of course it has. The people who borrow regularly were showered with money during the pandemic.

Frank Galvin said:

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KaiBear said:

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TenBears said:

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KaiBear said:

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TenBears said:

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Financial catastrophe???? In this market I feel like I have a broken ATM machine spewing money in my living room. Employment up, gas down. I totally get why people don't like Kamala, but this fiction about the negative economy is just orange propaganda.

---

Agree up to a point

My stocks are up 67% over the last 18 months. Going to liquidate everything within the next 10 business days. If others make even more money with me on the sidelines…..good for them.

However the majority of folks my wife and I know are struggling. Increased prices for food, gas, utilities, insurance and daycare are driving them crazy.

How this dichotomy translates regarding the election between Trump and Harris I have no idea.

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Yes sir. I agree with your analysis, except I think the lower and middle classes (whatever the hell that even means now) have and always will struggle, regardless of administration.

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That is also true.

But data on personal debt shows it has increased severely over the last 3.5 years.

Now will those people blame Biden Harris policies or stick with their traditional Democratic roots and hope for the best ?

Again, I have no idea.

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Of course it has. The people who borrow regularly were showered with money during the pandemic.

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Good point.

No doubt the pandemic caused much economic damage for many people.

But that not all of it.

There are a world of people out there that work very hard; often two jobs.

However with rising costs, underemployed children moving back home, and increasing credit card debt…..millions are giving up in their hope of living the American Dream.

That said …..I do expect the majority of such people to remain loyal to their Democratic Party roots.

LIB,MR BEARS said:

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mtenery14 said:

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nein51 said:

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mtenery14 said:

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nein51 said:

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Eh. Maybe. The demand for cheap crap is always high and we just don't build a lot of cheap crap here. Lots of crap just not cheap crap.

We built a display trailer recently and I needed to be able to run small equipment in it. It was important to me to use a US made inverter for a couple reasons. You could have bought a Chinese built inverter for like $50 that would do the job, $149 for a decent one and $300 for a nice one. I ended up paying about $700 to get a US made version. I really didn't even find many options, regardless of price point.

---

Yeah the Chinese built stuff will soon be more from Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, etc. places with better demographic structures and more room for cheap labor. But that's not the stuff I was talking about

---

If regulations were loosened you would see a lot of manufacturing come back to the U.S. but it's pretty unpopular to loosen environmental, worker protection, wage/hour protections.

---

Yeah our government would rather ship the emissions, dangerous jobs, and cheap pay overseas just to say that they're doing good for the country/world. I don't disagree there.

---

moving emissions overseas only hurts the environment. The US typically does a better job controlling emissions than the rest of the world. Hiding the emissions overseas is simply a shell game.

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Yup