House election updates

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midgett
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12:49p, 11/6/24
Based on current reported results…

Need 220 to "win". 220 means you control the gavel and committee heads but not enough to win all your bills as only one needs to flip.

Republicans 213
200 confirmed
13 insurmountable lead

Democrats 205
180 confirmed
25 insurmountable lead

Narrow leads
Republicans 9
Democrats 11
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ShooterTX
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2:18p, 11/6/24
pretty sure the number is 218, not 220.
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midgett
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In reply to ShooterTX • 2:38p, 11/6/24
ShooterTX said:
pretty sure the number is 218, not 220.


438/2 =219 + 1 = 220. What did I miss?

(Assumes all seats are filled.)
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ShooterTX
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In reply to midgett • 2:48p, 11/6/24
midgett said:
ShooterTX said:
pretty sure the number is 218, not 220.


438/2 =219 + 1 = 220. What did I miss?

(Assumes all seats are filled.)
Just based off the AP election results map...

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Jayman1963
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In reply to midgett • 3:00p, 11/6/24
midgett said:
ShooterTX said:
pretty sure the number is 218, not 220.


438/2 =219 + 1 = 220. What did I miss?

(Assumes all seats are filled.)
435/2 = 217.5 so 218 for a majority.
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4th and Inches
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3:46p, 11/6/24
Nobody said there was a math test!

I didnt study!
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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midgett
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5:33p, 11/6/24
I'm good at math but bad at reading! I was thinking 438 instead of 435. What's really idiotic of me is the site I got the data CLEARLY shows 218 is the majority. DOH!

Thanks for the correction!
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Fre3dombear
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6:58p, 11/6/24
Why does it always take so long to count these "special" locations

Why there's no trust

Count all mail in for days later with a post mark maybe without a postmark maybe ya just fake a post mark (that's impossible right?)

We have the dumbest voting system in the first world
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Assassin
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7:20p, 11/6/24
whats the latest? Ballot dumps started yet?
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midgett
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7:50p, 11/6/24
Called 204-189

Reps looking good in 10 more.

Dems looking good in 15 more.

Reps with narrow leads in 9. Dems with narrow leads in 8. These 17 include 7 races with less than 1% difference.

A slight edge for Reps to maintain control but neither party will have much margin for error for a member to defy the party in a vote.
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Assassin
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In reply to midgett • 7:52p, 11/6/24
midgett said:
Called 204-189

Reps looking good in 10 more.

Dems looking good in 15 more.

Reps with narrow leads in 9. Dems with narrow leads in 8. These 17 include 7 races with less than 1% difference.

A slight edge for Reps to maintain control but neither party will have much margin for error for a member to defy the party in a vote.
Thanks, my dyslexic mind couldn't figure it out
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midgett
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8:03p, 11/6/24
RCP shows a net 4 seats flipped from Dem to Rep. It also helps as a few states lost seats/electoral votes and a few states have added (TX & NC for two).

Here is what is weird. The Washington 4th district has not been officially called. Yet, all candidates are Republican.

Heard someone on TV state Reps believe they will have more than before.

So maybe it is leaning better for Rep.
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Assassin
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9:25p, 11/6/24
Doesnt look that close according to https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/US-House/

10 more right headed red now ahead, added to the 212 they already have in the bank if I am reading this correctly
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Assassin
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9:34p, 11/6/24
89.8% Rep chance

10.2% Dem chance
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Jack Bauer
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9:37p, 11/6/24
Texas House results

GOP 25 seats
Dems 13 seats (The metro cities, El Paso and South Texas)
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Assassin
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9:45p, 11/6/24
They are projecting 222-213 Republican win
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Assassin
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10:34p, 11/6/24
There's another House race in Maryland #6 I missed. Blue is up by about 250 votes... who knows?
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midgett
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2:46p, 11/7/24
It's now 210-197.

Of the 28 outstanding, both parties lead in 14.

Of the 28, 8 are still less than a one point difference (3 Rep, 5 Dem).
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Assassin
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2:59p, 11/7/24
Pretty sure it will end up 221 or 222 unless we upset a blue leader right now.

It's been a while since we had complete control... even the Governors! 27-23
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Assassin
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6:33p, 11/7/24
Finally got the Washington duo called. Up to 214
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Assassin
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In reply to Assassin • 6:36p, 11/7/24
Assassin said:
Finally got the Washington duo called. Up to 214
Leading in 6 others, dead heat in Arizona 6. 150,992 votes each.
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Assassin
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In reply to Assassin • 7:09p, 11/7/24
Assassin said:
Assassin said:
Finally got the Washington duo called. Up to 214
Leading in 6 others, dead heat in Arizona 6. 150,992 votes each.
Reps move ahead in 6s, now projected to the red wave with 76% of the vote counted. This the Tucson and east area
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Assassin
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8:24p, 11/7/24
215-201 right now.

Alaska is a given.
CA 41 is a pretty solid 3 points ahead with 69% in
CA 22 is a 10 point lead with 57% in
CA 13 is about a 3% lead with 51% in
CA 27 up two points 72% in

---
neck and neck in Arizona 6, only 200 votes apart, we are down with 79% in
---
Less than a point down in CA 21 with 57% in
About a point down in CA 9 with 56% in
Down a couple of points in WA 3, with 95% in
Down two points in OR 5, 84% in
Down less than a point in CO 8 less than a point, with 84% in

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Assassin
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9:21p, 11/7/24
Another one to Reps, 216-204, that was CA 22. 93.4% chance of getting dos mas
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Assassin
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9:47p, 11/7/24
Outside chance to pick up one more Senate seat. Kari Lake in Arizona needs 44,000 votes to make up the difference with 78% counted. Not likely but... there's a chance
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Fre3dombear
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In reply to Assassin • 9:55p, 11/7/24
Assassin said:
215-201 right now.

Alaska is a given.
CA 41 is a pretty solid 3 points ahead with 69% in
CA 22 is a 10 point lead with 57% in
CA 13 is about a 3% lead with 51% in
CA 27 up two points 72% in

---
neck and neck in Arizona 6, only 200 votes apart, we are down with 79% in
---
Less than a point down in CA 21 with 57% in
About a point down in CA 9 with 56% in
Down a couple of points in WA 3, with 95% in
Down two points in OR 5, 84% in
Down less than a point in CO 8 less than a point, with 84% in



Generally they just keep Counting till thearxist wins

So stupid any of this could ever take this long.
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KaiBear
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In reply to Fre3dombear • 9:59p, 11/7/24
Fre3dombear said:
Assassin said:
215-201 right now.

Alaska is a given.
CA 41 is a pretty solid 3 points ahead with 69% in
CA 22 is a 10 point lead with 57% in
CA 13 is about a 3% lead with 51% in
CA 27 up two points 72% in

---
neck and neck in Arizona 6, only 200 votes apart, we are down with 79% in
---
Less than a point down in CA 21 with 57% in
About a point down in CA 9 with 56% in
Down a couple of points in WA 3, with 95% in
Down two points in OR 5, 84% in
Down less than a point in CO 8 less than a point, with 84% in



Generally they just keep Counting till thearxist wins

So stupid any of this could ever take this long.



DAYS to count the votes in a congressional race ?

Totally absurd.

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Assassin
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10:01p, 11/7/24
AR 6 is down to 200 votes, still blue though. 79% done
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Assassin • 10:46p, 11/7/24
Assassin said:
Outside chance to pick up one more Senate seat. Kari Lake in Arizona needs 44,000 votes to make up the difference with 78% counted. Not likely but... there's a chance
i expected her to lose by 2% so she is doing better than I expected
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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Assassin
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 10:50p, 11/7/24
4th and Inches said:
Assassin said:
Outside chance to pick up one more Senate seat. Kari Lake in Arizona needs 44,000 votes to make up the difference with 78% counted. Not likely but... there's a chance
i expected her to lose by 2% so she is doing better than I expected
Been no updates on that race for several hours.
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Assassin
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11:58p, 11/7/24
No recent updates so I'm heading to bed. We still need two more to make it a sweep, House is at 216 right now. Should be in the bag, but you never know about lefties shenanigans.
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Forest Bueller
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In reply to Assassin • 12:23a, 11/8/24
Assassin said:
Another one to Reps, 216-204, that was CA 22. 93.4% chance of getting dos mas


What source Assassin? Mine is several calls behind.
By the grace of the Lord Jesus Christ we shall be saved.
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Forest Bueller
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In reply to KaiBear • 12:26a, 11/8/24
KaiBear said:
Fre3dombear said:
Assassin said:
215-201 right now.

Alaska is a given.
CA 41 is a pretty solid 3 points ahead with 69% in
CA 22 is a 10 point lead with 57% in
CA 13 is about a 3% lead with 51% in
CA 27 up two points 72% in

---
neck and neck in Arizona 6, only 200 votes apart, we are down with 79% in
---
Less than a point down in CA 21 with 57% in
About a point down in CA 9 with 56% in
Down a couple of points in WA 3, with 95% in
Down two points in OR 5, 84% in
Down less than a point in CO 8 less than a point, with 84% in



Generally they just keep Counting till thearxist wins

So stupid any of this could ever take this long.



DAYS to count the votes in a congressional race ?

Totally absurd.



Insanity.

No reason not to have all votes in and counted by election night. Even if it goes long into the night.

By the grace of the Lord Jesus Christ we shall be saved.
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KaiBear
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In reply to Forest Bueller • 7:58a, 11/8/24
Forest Bueller said:
KaiBear said:
Fre3dombear said:
Assassin said:
215-201 right now.

Alaska is a given.
CA 41 is a pretty solid 3 points ahead with 69% in
CA 22 is a 10 point lead with 57% in
CA 13 is about a 3% lead with 51% in
CA 27 up two points 72% in

---
neck and neck in Arizona 6, only 200 votes apart, we are down with 79% in
---
Less than a point down in CA 21 with 57% in
About a point down in CA 9 with 56% in
Down a couple of points in WA 3, with 95% in
Down two points in OR 5, 84% in
Down less than a point in CO 8 less than a point, with 84% in



Generally they just keep Counting till thearxist wins

So stupid any of this could ever take this long.



DAYS to count the votes in a congressional race ?

Totally absurd.



Insanity.

No reason not to have all votes in and counted by election night. Even if it goes long into the night.



That's how it was for years. Now it takes DAYS ? Something obviously is not right .
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LIB,MR BEARS
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In reply to Forest Bueller • 8:02a, 11/8/24
Forest Bueller said:
KaiBear said:
Fre3dombear said:
Assassin said:
215-201 right now.

Alaska is a given.
CA 41 is a pretty solid 3 points ahead with 69% in
CA 22 is a 10 point lead with 57% in
CA 13 is about a 3% lead with 51% in
CA 27 up two points 72% in

---
neck and neck in Arizona 6, only 200 votes apart, we are down with 79% in
---
Less than a point down in CA 21 with 57% in
About a point down in CA 9 with 56% in
Down a couple of points in WA 3, with 95% in
Down two points in OR 5, 84% in
Down less than a point in CO 8 less than a point, with 84% in



Generally they just keep Counting till thearxist wins

So stupid any of this could ever take this long.



DAYS to count the votes in a congressional race ?

Totally absurd.



Insanity.

No reason not to have all votes in and counted by election night. Even if it goes long into the night.


Covering tracks

Plausible (D) vs Probable (R)

It's not just Arizona, nationwide, there's still more than 20 million votes missing
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