whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
Well FLBear, from my POV you really just confirmed my point.
Trump won't win or lose the midterms, all the noise is irrelevant to most voters.
We'll see. Great things about elections, is we get to see who is right.
I missed on the primaries, who knew DeSantis would have the personality of a rock. He should have been a shoo in. We will see on midterms. I am seeing Blue wave, not as big as the Dems think, but enough to flip House. If it goes real bad or Trump does something else, the Senate could be in play.
We will see
It's very possible the Democrats could take the House, given what normally happens in midterm elections. So if that happens, it won't make either of us right or wrong to the degree that we are likely to agree/concede.
I do believe the winner of the midterms still has to win over the voters open to either party. Certainly both parties will make major GOTV efforts this fall.
As for the Senate, I think the GOP is in place to hold it, but they have work to do because even a win could leave some Senators open to pressure from Democrats to play 'moderate' and vote for crap their states don't need or want.
I admit when wrong. I thought DeSantis would win and I though Haley had the best ideas. Neither did *****..
Media matters. People will laugh this off, but the GOP is on the wrong side of this. People don't only vote issues and competence, or Nixon would have beat Kennedy. Bush would have beat Clinton. Hillary would have beat reality TV guy Trump.
Jake Paul walks back Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show criticism
no, neither Trump or the GOP are on the wrong side of anything. All across the spectrum of issues their policies are on the right side of 64/40 (or better) issues.
The reality is this: history teaches us that the GOP lost the 2026 mid-terms the day Trump was inaugurated. The only question is....can they manage to defeat history and hold on. Right now, they are competitive, and the environment going forward is going to get increasingly favorable for them. particularly the economy.
First, wrong? Bit black and white. There isnt a right or wrong. There is a numbers game. We are no longer the target demographic. BB was not about taste, but about numbers. He is the hottest act there is right now and expands the NFL footprint. That is the goal, whether you or I like it? Irrelevant, we are dinosaurs to Madison Ave.
I disagree it was lost on election day. Trump, if anyone, shows Americans will forgive anything if you perform. Biden dod not, Trump is back. Trump is losing it with nuclear, heavy handed tactics AND Epstein. A lot of the damage is done. He gets it now, he has backed off. Epstein is going to be impossible to shake and Vance is unlikable. He needs to figure a way out of Epstein but don't see that happening. You keep saying people don't vote based on seemingly everything Trump does wrong. Well, they will vote on Epstein, it will impact elections, too much there not to. Stonewalling making it worse.
Going to be tough for GOP. House is probably gone. Senate is actually in play. Economy is going to have to get better quick and not just for the wealthy. The basics for the working class are not there. They are worse, AI and automation gonna gut things before help. That is not his fault, but he will pay. Maybe I am wrong and you are right, this is exactly what America wants.
But, midterms are not just some historic fact and Trump is an innocent bystander helpless to impact the future election. You are creative in your spin...
You are railing against reality. The party which wins the WH almost always loses mid-term election. Ergo one must presume that will be the outcome unless one does something to change it. Such hardly unique to Trump. It has been the case for both parties.
At this point, the median polling seems to be showing a likely narrow loss of the House, and a likely narrow retention of the Senate. Nothing extraordinary. Just what is expected.
We also know this: the admin did enact the proper program as quickly as possible. It will have enormously positive impacts. Whether those impacts happen in time or not remains to be seen. But the benchmarks seem to be showing that what needs to happen is starting to happen. So I wouldn't get too far out over your skis at this point. You might be disappointed.
Yeah, unless you guys are looking to spin a different narrative, then its history is not a good indicator of the future...
Or, when it was Clinton or Obama it was there job performance. With Trump, its just going to happen.
If he does a good job, you don't lose seats. We have seen it in both the House and the Senate. If he does things the American people don't like, you lose seats.
Clinton lost 50+ in the first term and gained 5 in the second at midterms. Why? 1st term he opened with taxes and health care. 2nd, he got on board with Newt. America liked the 2nd, not the 1st.
Bush gained 8 in the first term and lost 32 in the second. Why? 1st term 911, America approved how he handled it. 2nd term, Iraq. America did not approve.
You come in and believe you have a mandate and you are going to lose seats in the House. This group did that in spades. This is the reconciliation. But, it is based on actions, not some pre-conceived rule that the GOP was losing the House in 2026.
That is spin. Do what the American people want, you gain seats. Do what they don't, you lose. Simple as that.
It is consistent because incoming Presidents typically do not think that way and go nuts on their agendas OR world events get them. Midterms are a reconciliation based on what the Administration DOES. You are acting like Trump is some by-stander here and it really is beyond his control. It is because of what he does.
I do find mid-terms fascinating.
LOL.
Your problem starts by conflating garden variety cynicism with critical thinking.
Maybe. I admit my distrust of the current Admin freely. You and some others here are using metrics to back into an agenda you support. Not looking at the data and analyzing for findings. I get it, you are vested in Trump. He has to be successful as you guys have invested so much in him. So much so, that you are allowing and blessing behaviors you would never approve in other Presidents totally subscribing to the ends justifies the means.
Looking inward, do I view Trump with wariness and distrust, yes. I have clearly said that since his nomination. I have stated why and documented it from Atlantic City to his tactics in NY getting loans forgiven to his move to Reality TV to January 6th to his cyber moves and now Epstein (there are more, but you get the point). I do not trust anything he does. Everything he has been involved in has started well and crashed and burned as some point. If it turns out well, I will give him credit, but he has NO benefit of the doubt or leeway. I have seen him in NY and FL since 1975, buyer beware...
LOL. You cannot envision a scenario where you might be wrong....even though over and over and over, issue after issue, you keep running into walls, taking ever more extreme positions to avoid dealing with reality.
More "metrics."
I have said numerous times when you post economic data, that is great. I HOPE you are right. I hope it holds and the economy does soar. I can only applaud a quarter at a time, dude. At the end of his term if this all holds I will be first to applaud. I have just as much invested in this working as the rest of the US. Hell, if it goes where you say I will retire early.
You guys seem to like talking about what we disagree. I don't know why you guys approach politics as right and wrong? It is not a contest, it is a sliding scale. And, believe it or not there are overlaps between the left and right. I don't look at any of this as right and wrong, too big for black and white. The whole thing is one big gray area.
I am not getting sucked into fights anymore with idiots. You are one of the ones I like talking to because even if we disagree you supply data to review. There are a bunch others, but no more discussions with some.