We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

cowboycwr said:

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We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

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We shouldn't have a war, because you're right -- if they're smart, they wouldn't try.

I'm not sure their need for intense propaganda to keep the CCP in power won't necessitate a war, though. It's not smart, it's the CCP's only means of preserving power until it all comes crashing down.

cowboycwr said:

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We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

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People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

Mothra said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Tempus Edax Rerum said:

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-ready-war-america-102203881.html

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Oh no….you mean the totalitarian communists bent on expansion, military build up, and economic predatory policies are mad at us?

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You'll have to excuse him. He believes China's authoritarian way of handling COVID was the model response, and should have been employed here. He has a soft spot for China.

Of course, he also still suffers under the delusion that COVID came about naturally, and wasn't the result of US-funded, Chinese research. Poor soul.

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FIFY

nein51 said:

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cowboycwr said:

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We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

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People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

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This article was also very interesting about how hard of an Island Taiwan is to invade.....its really really hard

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

Redbrickbear said:

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nein51 said:

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cowboycwr said:

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We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

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This article was also very interesting about how hard of an Island Taiwan is to invade.....its really really hard

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

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Amphibious warfare is probably the hardest warfare on the planet. Because of the wind and seas there you would have multiple periods where it simply wouldn't be possible to invade, to add troops or equipment. It's not even certain China could take and hold Taiwan with no outside interference and there would absolutely be help from Japan, Korea and the U.S.

China should be paying close attention to Ukraine. Putins mistake was assuming Ukraine would just roll over. You don't need an army of vastly trained soldiers to hold a piece of land. You need a small percentage of people willing to die for that piece of land. I think I heard Erik Prince say "give me 3% of a military willing to die for a cause they believe in at their core and I'll hold a piece of land indefinitely".

The other issue is that if they tried to take Taiwan and weren't immediately successful Xi would be a dead man walking so is that an issue he wants to press? Are you willing to die to take Taiwan? I'm just not so sure he is.

nein51 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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nein51 said:

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cowboycwr said:

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We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

---

This article was also very interesting about how hard of an Island Taiwan is to invade.....its really really hard

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

---

Amphibious warfare is probably the hardest warfare on the planet. Because of the wind and seas there you would have multiple periods where it simply wouldn't be possible to invade, to add troops or equipment. It's not even certain China could take and hold Taiwan with no outside interference and there would absolutely be help from Japan, Korea and the U.S.

China should be paying close attention to Ukraine. Putins mistake was assuming Ukraine would just roll over. You don't need an army of vastly trained soldiers to hold a piece of land. You need a small percentage of people willing to die for that piece of land. I think I heard Erik Prince say "give me 3% of a military willing to die for a cause they believe in at their core and I'll hold a piece of land indefinitely".

The other issue is that if they tried to take Taiwan and weren't immediately successful Xi would be a dead man walking so is that an issue he wants to press? Are you willing to die to take Taiwan? I'm just not so sure he is.

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We would rig B-52's to be remotely flown and drop leaflets by the plane-load to tell the people "do not let Xi tell you how to live, we will trade with you".