We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

We shouldn't have a war, because you're right -- if they're smart, they wouldn't try.

I'm not sure their need for intense propaganda to keep the CCP in power won't necessitate a war, though. It's not smart, it's the CCP's only means of preserving power until it all comes crashing down.

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

Mothra said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Tempus Edax Rerum said:

---

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-ready-war-america-102203881.html

---

Oh no….you mean the totalitarian communists bent on expansion, military build up, and economic predatory policies are mad at us?

---

You'll have to excuse him. He believes China's authoritarian way of handling COVID was the model response, and should have been employed here. He has a soft spot for China.

Of course, he also still suffers under the delusion that COVID came about naturally, and wasn't the result of US-funded, Chinese research. Poor soul.

---

FIFY

nein51 said:

---

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

---

This article was also very interesting about how hard of an Island Taiwan is to invade.....its really really hard

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

Redbrickbear said:

---

nein51 said:

---

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

---

This article was also very interesting about how hard of an Island Taiwan is to invade.....its really really hard

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

---

Amphibious warfare is probably the hardest warfare on the planet. Because of the wind and seas there you would have multiple periods where it simply wouldn't be possible to invade, to add troops or equipment. It's not even certain China could take and hold Taiwan with no outside interference and there would absolutely be help from Japan, Korea and the U.S.

China should be paying close attention to Ukraine. Putins mistake was assuming Ukraine would just roll over. You don't need an army of vastly trained soldiers to hold a piece of land. You need a small percentage of people willing to die for that piece of land. I think I heard Erik Prince say "give me 3% of a military willing to die for a cause they believe in at their core and I'll hold a piece of land indefinitely".

The other issue is that if they tried to take Taiwan and weren't immediately successful Xi would be a dead man walking so is that an issue he wants to press? Are you willing to die to take Taiwan? I'm just not so sure he is.

nein51 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

nein51 said:

---

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

---

This article was also very interesting about how hard of an Island Taiwan is to invade.....its really really hard

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

---

Amphibious warfare is probably the hardest warfare on the planet. Because of the wind and seas there you would have multiple periods where it simply wouldn't be possible to invade, to add troops or equipment. It's not even certain China could take and hold Taiwan with no outside interference and there would absolutely be help from Japan, Korea and the U.S.

China should be paying close attention to Ukraine. Putins mistake was assuming Ukraine would just roll over. You don't need an army of vastly trained soldiers to hold a piece of land. You need a small percentage of people willing to die for that piece of land. I think I heard Erik Prince say "give me 3% of a military willing to die for a cause they believe in at their core and I'll hold a piece of land indefinitely".

The other issue is that if they tried to take Taiwan and weren't immediately successful Xi would be a dead man walking so is that an issue he wants to press? Are you willing to die to take Taiwan? I'm just not so sure he is.

---

We would rig B-52's to be remotely flown and drop leaflets by the plane-load to tell the people "do not let Xi tell you how to live, we will trade with you".

nein51 said:

---

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

---

The F35 was/is a huge waste of money. It is a badly managed product.

I just don't get why we can't listen to the military. Give them new versions of the B52 and A10. They don't need to be stealth and super fancy. Just upgrade everything that can be but keep the basics the same.


On the F35 though, today I was in Ft Worth by NAS Ft Worth and a bunch were flying in and doing vertical landings. I stopped to watch a while. It was really neat to see that. Flying normal and the. Just stopping and going straight down. It really is a neat sight.

cowboycwr said:

---

nein51 said:

---

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

---

The F35 was/is a huge waste of money. It is a badly managed product.

I just don't get why we can't listen to the military. Give them new versions of the B52 and A10. They don't need to be stealth and super fancy. Just upgrade everything that can be but keep the basics the same.


On the F35 though, today I was in Ft Worth by NAS Ft Worth and a bunch were flying in and doing vertical landings. I stopped to watch a while. It was really neat to see that. Flying normal and the. Just stopping and going straight down. It really is a neat sight.

---

The F35 was insanely capable…until everyone had to have a say in what it does. But, yes, I agree.

Mothra said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Tempus Edax Rerum said:

---

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-ready-war-america-102203881.html

---

Oh no….you mean the totalitarian communists bent on expansion, military build up, and economic predatory policies are mad at us?

---

You'll have to excuse him. He believes China's authoritarian way of handling COVID was the model response, and should have been employed here. He has a soft spot for China.

Of course, he also still suffers under the delusion that COVID came about naturally, and wasn't the result of Chinese research. Poor soul.

---

I never said anything about how China handled COVID moron. And yes it did start in a wet market. Most qualified folks think so too. Only you tinfoil hat nutjobs think otherwise.

Redbrickbear said:

---

nein51 said:

---

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

---

This article was also very interesting about how hard of an Island Taiwan is to invade.....its really really hard

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

---

True, hence the naval build up. I will not be surprised if they invade Taiwan before Trumps term is over.

Tempus Edax Rerum said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

nein51 said:

---

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

---

This article was also very interesting about how hard of an Island Taiwan is to invade.....its really really hard

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

---

True, hence the naval build up. I will not be surprised if they invade Taiwan before Trumps term is over.

---

absolute Turkey shoot

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

If China wanted Taiwan, they could take it. What they couldn't do however is choose the price to pay for it.

The water's around Taiwan and the South China Sea are crawling with US nuclear subs. China's navy would pay a huge price as would their airfields, communication centers and fuel storage.

Is Taiwan worth the price?

Tempus Edax Rerum said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

nein51 said:

---

cowboycwr said:

---

We won't have a war with China. Not if they are smart.

At Baylor I took a class on modern China and one of the things we read /discussed was about if China is truly our military adversary like the USSR. Basically they are not.

This paper used lots of evidence based off things like economics, farming capabilities, and a break down of their military capabilities. They have lots of ground troops that could just keep running at any troops we have on the ground. But their ground vehicles are not great. Their Air Force is not great. Their navy (as others have said) is 50 years behind us and full of small coastal ships not world reaching ships.

They also do not have the support ships needed for a war.

Finally their economy is heavily tied to ours. There would be a huge cut to their profits/economy if they immediately stopped trading with us. Which would probably lead to a huge problem in any protracted war.

---

People keep talking about Taiwan. Find real military folks and ask them what they think the odds are China could take and hold Taiwan. Most everyone will tell you they wouldn't want to be in charge of that operation.

They have massive issues with corruption in the service and a lot of their flag officers are nothing more than people who bribed their way to a star.

FTR we also have issues. The F35, for example, is hovering around a 30% readiness rate at the moment meaning on 30% of those planes are mission capable.

---

This article was also very interesting about how hard of an Island Taiwan is to invade.....its really really hard

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

---

True, hence the naval build up. I will not be surprised if they invade Taiwan before Trumps term is over.

---

Willing to wager on it? How much you wanna bet? $5k?

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

KaiBear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

only reason China has not already tried is that we have maintained enough strategic ambiguity about our response. We are not going to sit on our hands. But how much will we engage? (We won't have to engage directly with ground troops.....)

China's military structure is not designed for expeditionary forces (beyond Taiwan), so much of the correct observations about tonnage and its technological limitations are not really pertinent. Unlike us, they are not built to project power, but to dominate their near neighborhood, with a particular focus on preventing us from intervening. China itself is a great big unsinkable aircraft carrier & missile cruiser that can make the US Navy pay a huge price for venturing within range. Those small cheap ships in their navy are "missile trucks" which can stand in littoral waters and punch above their weight, potentially inflicting frightfully more damage cost on us than we can on them.

F35 has its issues. USAF has responded by upping inventory of F-15s for both strategic depth but more importantly to serve as "bomb trucks." F-35s will handle the key stealth missions, but otherwise serve as battle managers for larger fleets of more expendable drones and F-15s bomb trucks.

It is true that China wins almost every war game we run on Taiwan. But that is not the point of the wargame. We need to know how they win, & why. We need to know our weaknesses & remedies. But that is true of a lot more wargames than just those on China. The reason we win wars is not because we win war games. The reason we win wars is because we wargame. We learn. And we execute our capabilities substantially better than our war opponents, in no small part because they do not war game.

As long as Taiwan has Ukraine-like will to resist, China will have its hands full invading Taiwan.

whiterock said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

It is true that China wins almost every war game we run on Taiwan.

---

The only winning move for the US.........

is not to play.

As the American people will NEVER support a war with China over Taiwan.





Period

william said:

---

... and Panda Express is WAAAAAAAY overrated.

- el KKM

{ sipping coffee }

---

I know what you mean. I went there some time back and Panda was not even on the menu.


I mean, why put that in the name and you don't even have it?

KaiBear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

It is true that China wins almost every war game we run on Taiwan.

---

The only winning move for the US.........

is not to play.

As the American people will NEVER support a war with China over Taiwan.





Period

---

Actually, we've been in conflict for some time with China. It just doesn't get media attention.

We would fight for Taiwan, just not in the conventional let's do the Korean War over again idiocy that some folks lock onto as the only way to fight.

Think about this, though -

Biden left America the weakest she's been in decades, yet China never invaded Taiwan.

If you know why, you understand what's really going on now.

KaiBear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

It is true that China wins almost every war game we run on Taiwan.

---

The only winning move for the US.........

is not to play.

As the American people will NEVER support a war with China over Taiwan.





Period

---

it'll be over before public opinion matters.

the outcome, however, does matter. enormously. For allies in the region and for the American people.

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

Our supply lines would not be an issue. We fought and won a war in that same region with long supply lines. While most of the supplies were going to the other side of the world.

This time though we have existing military bases, airfields, etc.

KaiBear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

They probably would as most of those lost would be on ships going there.

We have more carriers with larger capacity than their two.

We have more subs.

They have lots of coastal defense type ships. And not enough landing craft to get their troops, equipment and supplies to shore.

cowboycwr said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

They probably would as most of those lost would be on ships going there.

We have more carriers with larger capacity than their two.

We have more subs.

They have lots of coastal defense type ships. And not enough landing craft to get their troops, equipment and supplies to shore.

---

Not only that, China has tried - and failed - to run blue-water exercises coordinating aircraft carriers and main fleet at least six times in the last decade.

They simply lack the means to project power aside from just sending in warships and sinking fishermen.


China has a large array of weapons, so they can protect their bases to some degree, but they lack a comprehensive order of battle to use them.


Cyber attack teams, drone fleets, hypersonic weapons, but no evidence of a true War College.

China CCP sucks. They tax the **** out of our exports, employ cheap slave labor including child labor, steal and rob us. I wish we tell WalMart to get the hell outta there. Without WalMart China would really be hurting

whiterock said:

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KaiBear said:

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whiterock said:

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KaiBear said:

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trey3216 said:

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KaiBear said:

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Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

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Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

It is true that China wins almost every war game we run on Taiwan.

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The only winning move for the US.........

is not to play.

As the American people will NEVER support a war with China over Taiwan.





Period

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it'll be over before public opinion matters.

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Same kind of destructive bravado was spoken before the Civil War, World War One , World War Two, Korean War, Vietnam and Iraq.

China would destroy several of our naval units within the first 30 days of combat . The Navy would suffer their worst casualties since the last 6 months of the Pacific War.

As upgraded missiles and drones have made carrier groups very vulnerable.

The American people will not support such a war.

And you damn well know it.

Fortunately….Trump knows it as well.

KaiBear said:

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whiterock said:

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KaiBear said:

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whiterock said:

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KaiBear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

It is true that China wins almost every war game we run on Taiwan.

---

The only winning move for the US.........

is not to play.

As the American people will NEVER support a war with China over Taiwan.





Period

---

it'll be over before public opinion matters.

---

Same kind of destructive bravado was spoken before the Civil War, World War One , World War Two, Korean War, Vietnam and Iraq.

China would destroy several of our naval units within the first 30 days of combat . The Navy would suffer their worst casualties since the last 6 months of the Pacific War.

As upgraded missiles and drones have made carrier groups very vulnerable.

The American people will not support such a war.

And you damn well know it.

Fortunately….Trump knows it as well.

---

Let's hope that Trump knows it.

Some will never learn.

cowboycwr said:

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KaiBear said:

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trey3216 said:

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KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

They probably would as most of those lost would be on ships going there.
landing barges are big & slow. and they take a long time to load. and the mainland embarcation points are in range of a number of defensive systems.....

We have more carriers with larger capacity than their two.
but China has built a missile umbrella stretching out so far into the Pacific that we will either have to expose them to danger, or use refueling tankers (themselves a lucrative target) to get planes back to ship. China has planned well to pose formidable challenges to our assets.

We have more subs.
which are more useful in blue water (where China does not plan to challenge us) than in littoral (where China has armed itself to the teeth). Yes, we can sink barges, but we'd have to sink an awful lot of them to overcome bad cost-of-loss equations (i.e. how many barges do we have to sink to offset the potential loss of a $4b Virginia class attack sub, which only carries 60-70 weapons including Tomahawks.)

They have lots of coastal defense type ships. And not enough landing craft to get their troops, equipment and supplies to shore.
they've started construction of the landing craft
https://nypost.com/2025/01/14/world-news/new-china-satellite-photos-of-d-day-style-landing-barges-making-experts-sweat/

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most of the wargames done have shown China opening up its move on Taiwan with pre-emptive strikes on Japanese mainland and US bases in the Pacific. Implicit in those calculations is that the tyranny of distance will force the battle toward land-surface conflict - land based weapons fired at sea based assets, and vice versa, rather than carrier air operations. So you will be seeing lots of stores being laid up in the region, rather than counting on lines of supply from US-Japan

If it gets into the "lines of supply" phase, we are at a disadvantage. We have stop the landing barges in the channel. Think about what Ukraine did to the Russian advance on Kiev, then replay it on water.

The USMC gave up its Abrahms tanks to become a true amphibious force, primarily to be able to respond to Chinese actions in Pacific Island chains.

RealEstateBear said:

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China CCP sucks. They tax the **** out of our exports, employ cheap slave labor including child labor, steal and rob us. I wish we tell WalMart to get the hell outta there. Without WalMart China would really be hurting

---

The stealing part is essential

They have built an entire modern economy on stolen U.S. tech and stolen U.S. companies intellectual property (and no doubt steals from S. Korea, Japan, EU)

It's hard to not have respect for the work habits and intelligence of the average Chinese person….and hard to have anything but absolute loathing for Communist China….a horrific gangster state run by totalitarian thieves

Oldbear83 said:

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cowboycwr said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Unless the US is willing to use nukes; we would be unable to stop China in any invasion of Taiwan.

Far too few ground troops in the region and our supply lines would be thousands of miles long.

Anyone playing internet Rambo and ignoring the tactical realties involved would be best served by never examining a map.

---

China would lose millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of airplanes, and virtually their entire Navy trying to take Taiwan. This isn't the English Channel in 1944. It would be an absolute turkey shoot.

---

Ridiculous

Zero chance China would lose 'millions' of troops. 'Tens of thousands' of planes; or their 'entire navy'.

China has dramatically upgraded their military over the last 10 years.

Same cannot be said for the US.

And again, our supply lines would be unable to keep our forces rapidly resupplied .

---

They probably would as most of those lost would be on ships going there.

We have more carriers with larger capacity than their two.

We have more subs.

They have lots of coastal defense type ships. And not enough landing craft to get their troops, equipment and supplies to shore.

---

Not only that, China has tried - and failed - to run blue-water exercises coordinating aircraft carriers and main fleet at least six times in the last decade.

They simply lack the means to project power aside from just sending in warships and sinking fishermen.


China has a large array of weapons, so they can protect their bases to some degree, but they lack a comprehensive order of battle to use them.


Cyber attack teams, drone fleets, hypersonic weapons, but no evidence of a true War College.

---

Imagine China trying to take an island with 24 million people, highly educated and prepared, and a island much bigger and more rugged in land scape

Iwo Jima is like 8 square miles and simultaneously had like 50,000 people all fighting on it.

No fucking wonder the battle was so intense. pic.twitter.com/gvV6vcg85E

— Spike (@spikesguides) March 7, 2025