April 2nd Reciprocal Tariffs

347,255 Views | 3994 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by RD2WINAGNBEAR86
Robert Wilson
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whiterock said:

muddybrazos said:

Trump just did a 90 day pause on tariffs on everyone but China and raised them 125%. Bitcoin immediately rips back into the 80s!! LFG


LOL I've been telling the Panicans they're missing it. And they did.

Stand back & look at the tectonic plates here. Trump put tariffs on everyone and told all trade partners not to retaliate but to reach out to negotiate. 75+ nations did exactly what he asked. But China retaliated. Then Trump upped the ante to +100%. China responded yesterday with strong words: "If the U.S. insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end." Having baited China into the battle, he then announced a 90-day pause on everyone else and left China holding the bag. And there China sits in a battle it cannot win against the largest economy on earth, the second largest economy on earth, and dozens of other developed and developing countries.

A couple of days ago on this thread, I observed that Trump was attempting to make the world choose between economic alliance with China, or an economic alliance with the USA. That's where we are now. All of our trading partners that matter (a coalition of over 60% of world GDP) are choosing to deal with us. . And we will have as a precondition NO trans-shipments of Chinese goods thru their economies. China has an economy built to export; and just lost (or is at risk of losing) most of its export markets. It's like being dressed up for the ball when a game of touch football broke out.

China has an 17% share of US imports. So a 100% tariff on Chinese goods will have a macroeconomic impact of +2.55% on consumer prices. Easily offset by tax cuts..... We are a huge consumer market. China is not. We can get others to make what China makes. And it would be far better to diversify that production across 2-10 different countries rather than a single behemoth who is a near-peer rival. But nobody who chooses to disengage from the USA could possibly hope to find markets to replace us. We. Hold. All. The. Cards. China has very few.

So simple. Why did so few see it?

I think this is right. Threaten everyone, vast majority play ball, China bows up and gets isolated. Fairly predictable, especially if you got some allies quietly in your corner beforehand. If end result is we have better trade agreements generally and weaned ourselves off cheap Chinese goods (instead spreading across several other friendlier countries, combined with a little onshoring), that's a huge win. And it's one you want to get before we have the next global disruption (covid, war, etc.).
ron.reagan
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whiterock said:

ron.reagan said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

Mothra said:

Porteroso said:

Redbrickbear said:

Porteroso said:

ScottS said:

boognish_bear said:


...except the tariffs Trump put on are paid by other countries. Could it be past to the comsumer, yes but you might just buy something US made instead. You don't have to pay the tariff.
It will all trickle back to the consumer. Whether you pay more for made in USA, or more because Chinese goods are 54% more expensive, you are paying more. Tariffs are effectively a tax upon consumers.

Pay more so Americans can have better jobs? Count me in

Not to mention you are going to pay no matter what system you chose.

Even without tariffs you pay....in the real life sense of societal break down and via helping Communist China rise to be a world power.

There is no free lunch....and even free trade has its long term costs....and those costs will come due
That is a great personal policy for you to have as an individual, but it is a long term restructuring policy of the global economy policy to have, as a country. The question has to be asked, what evidence is there that America will be better off if we effectively close ourselves off to global trade?

As I've said, if this ends up being mostly tariffs on China, and we get better deals with most other countries, I can be for that. But as it was proposed, it's a declaration of economic war upon the free market, and that will not go well.

Lost in this is what Republicans used to say was a core value: the free market. If Trump does negotiate in good faith and get many countries to eliminate their tariffs upon US goods, the free market will benefit. If he does not negotiate, and no matter what a country like Vietnam says (they say they will eliminate all tariffs on US goods.... that's a wrap, right?), he goes forward with tariffs, this will be a major blow to free trade not only globally, but especially in the USA.

No President or Congress has ever taken it upon themself to declare war on free trade, not even the most liberal. To have this done by a Republican, and backed by conservatives, is yet another total flip flop driven by the GOP's total admiration for their Dear Leader.
Red's idea that this is going to hurt China is absurd. China is going to make a killing on this.
If that was the case then the Chinese foreign minister would not be screaming bloody murder...and he is


[China's foreign minister has accused the US of "two-faced" behaviour, condemning the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and warning against the "law of the jungle" that could emerge from Donald Trump's "America First" policy.

Speaking at the sidelines of China's annual parliamentary gathering, Wang Yi said China would "firmly counter" US pressure. "No country should think that it can suppress China and maintain good relations," he added.

Wang's comments came days after the US president announced an increase on tariffs on Chinese imports.]

look at our top 5 largest trade partners, all running surpluses with them. 4 of them have already made offers to drop tariffs if we drop ours. Only China is pushing back.

Then look at where we have the most aggressive tariffs employed. Why are so many places with such small amounts of trade hit with such extraordinary tariffs? (check the relationship many of those countries have with China).

One could argue that the whole program being run here is economic isolation of China, to freeze them out of a quarter of the world economy by making it effectively impossible for them to not just transship but to move production to escape our tariffs. Only by investing HERE will China be able to play in the US market. Why does China not want to do that? (because they want the jobs in China rather than America.....)


If the message is to build in America how the hell are we going to have free trade?
that right there is the mother of all faulty premises.
I didn't think you had an answer
ATL Bear
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Robert Wilson said:

whiterock said:

muddybrazos said:

Trump just did a 90 day pause on tariffs on everyone but China and raised them 125%. Bitcoin immediately rips back into the 80s!! LFG


LOL I've been telling the Panicans they're missing it. And they did.

Stand back & look at the tectonic plates here. Trump put tariffs on everyone and told all trade partners not to retaliate but to reach out to negotiate. 75+ nations did exactly what he asked. But China retaliated. Then Trump upped the ante to +100%. China responded yesterday with strong words: "If the U.S. insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end." Having baited China into the battle, he then announced a 90-day pause on everyone else and left China holding the bag. And there China sits in a battle it cannot win against the largest economy on earth, the second largest economy on earth, and dozens of other developed and developing countries.

A couple of days ago on this thread, I observed that Trump was attempting to make the world choose between economic alliance with China, or an economic alliance with the USA. That's where we are now. All of our trading partners that matter (a coalition of over 60% of world GDP) are choosing to deal with us. . And we will have as a precondition NO trans-shipments of Chinese goods thru their economies. China has an economy built to export; and just lost (or is at risk of losing) most of its export markets. It's like being dressed up for the ball when a game of touch football broke out.

China has an 17% share of US imports. So a 100% tariff on Chinese goods will have a macroeconomic impact of +2.55% on consumer prices. Easily offset by tax cuts..... We are a huge consumer market. China is not. We can get others to make what China makes. And it would be far better to diversify that production across 2-10 different countries rather than a single behemoth who is a near-peer rival. But nobody who chooses to disengage from the USA could possibly hope to find markets to replace us. We. Hold. All. The. Cards. China has very few.

So simple. Why did so few see it?

I think this is right. Threaten everyone, vast majority play ball, China bows up and gets isolated. Fairly predictable, especially if you got some allies quietly in your corner beforehand. If end result is we have better trade agreements generally and weaned ourselves off cheap Chinese goods (instead spreading across several other friendlier countries, combined with a little onshoring), that's a huge win. And it's one you want to get before we have the next global disruption (covid, war, etc.).
I think it's more he stumbled into it when he saw the tariff reactions, but I agree with your hopeful outcomes. It would be a positive for the U.S. and its allies. There's still going to be some pain in the interim due to a transition, but this objective I can actually see a clear strategic purpose.
Mothra
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whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:


the $4.5T in new investments announced thus far will more than offset the drop in consumption AND the budget cuts.
What are you referring to here? The non-binding commitment of some countries/industries to invest in the US?
I'm talking macroeconomics. C + I + G + T = GDP

The total of investments planned for other countries that have been redirected to the USA exceeds $4.5T (given that the number is over a week old). Not all of that will hit the books in 2025, but it doesn't have to to cover the planned US spending cuts of $1T.

So if G drops by $1T but I increases by $1T, the net impact to GDP is zero.

That solves the immediate problem of how to achieve the desired level of budget cuts without causing a severe recession.
But the problem is, a commitment without a contract is non-binding (and even in the case of contracts, it's not binding apparently according to Trump). So all a country or industry has to do is tell Trump what he wants to hear, and then wait for the next guy to come along.

Not sure how this accomplished anything.
Mothra
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ATL Bear said:

Robert Wilson said:

whiterock said:

muddybrazos said:

Trump just did a 90 day pause on tariffs on everyone but China and raised them 125%. Bitcoin immediately rips back into the 80s!! LFG


LOL I've been telling the Panicans they're missing it. And they did.

Stand back & look at the tectonic plates here. Trump put tariffs on everyone and told all trade partners not to retaliate but to reach out to negotiate. 75+ nations did exactly what he asked. But China retaliated. Then Trump upped the ante to +100%. China responded yesterday with strong words: "If the U.S. insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end." Having baited China into the battle, he then announced a 90-day pause on everyone else and left China holding the bag. And there China sits in a battle it cannot win against the largest economy on earth, the second largest economy on earth, and dozens of other developed and developing countries.

A couple of days ago on this thread, I observed that Trump was attempting to make the world choose between economic alliance with China, or an economic alliance with the USA. That's where we are now. All of our trading partners that matter (a coalition of over 60% of world GDP) are choosing to deal with us. . And we will have as a precondition NO trans-shipments of Chinese goods thru their economies. China has an economy built to export; and just lost (or is at risk of losing) most of its export markets. It's like being dressed up for the ball when a game of touch football broke out.

China has an 17% share of US imports. So a 100% tariff on Chinese goods will have a macroeconomic impact of +2.55% on consumer prices. Easily offset by tax cuts..... We are a huge consumer market. China is not. We can get others to make what China makes. And it would be far better to diversify that production across 2-10 different countries rather than a single behemoth who is a near-peer rival. But nobody who chooses to disengage from the USA could possibly hope to find markets to replace us. We. Hold. All. The. Cards. China has very few.

So simple. Why did so few see it?

I think this is right. Threaten everyone, vast majority play ball, China bows up and gets isolated. Fairly predictable, especially if you got some allies quietly in your corner beforehand. If end result is we have better trade agreements generally and weaned ourselves off cheap Chinese goods (instead spreading across several other friendlier countries, combined with a little onshoring), that's a huge win. And it's one you want to get before we have the next global disruption (covid, war, etc.).
I think it's more he stumbled into it when he saw the tariff reactions, but I agree with your hopeful outcomes. It would be a positive for the U.S. and its allies. There's still going to be some pain in the interim due to a transition, but this objective I can actually see a clear strategic purpose.
Indeed. It will be spun as part of a plan, when it likely wasn't. Public reaction was simply too negative, and he succumbed to the pressure.
ScottS
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ron.reagan said:

RealEstateBear said:

Everybody against China. Here we go. Destroy the commie *******s
He didn't have to kick everyone in the nuts first to do this if that was his goal
If you know of Art of the Deal that is how its done. Btw, how did you get kicked in the nuts? This is basically been going on a grand total of about 3 or 4 business days. Thats it.
Robert Wilson
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ATL Bear said:

Robert Wilson said:

whiterock said:

muddybrazos said:

Trump just did a 90 day pause on tariffs on everyone but China and raised them 125%. Bitcoin immediately rips back into the 80s!! LFG


LOL I've been telling the Panicans they're missing it. And they did.

Stand back & look at the tectonic plates here. Trump put tariffs on everyone and told all trade partners not to retaliate but to reach out to negotiate. 75+ nations did exactly what he asked. But China retaliated. Then Trump upped the ante to +100%. China responded yesterday with strong words: "If the U.S. insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end." Having baited China into the battle, he then announced a 90-day pause on everyone else and left China holding the bag. And there China sits in a battle it cannot win against the largest economy on earth, the second largest economy on earth, and dozens of other developed and developing countries.

A couple of days ago on this thread, I observed that Trump was attempting to make the world choose between economic alliance with China, or an economic alliance with the USA. That's where we are now. All of our trading partners that matter (a coalition of over 60% of world GDP) are choosing to deal with us. . And we will have as a precondition NO trans-shipments of Chinese goods thru their economies. China has an economy built to export; and just lost (or is at risk of losing) most of its export markets. It's like being dressed up for the ball when a game of touch football broke out.

China has an 17% share of US imports. So a 100% tariff on Chinese goods will have a macroeconomic impact of +2.55% on consumer prices. Easily offset by tax cuts..... We are a huge consumer market. China is not. We can get others to make what China makes. And it would be far better to diversify that production across 2-10 different countries rather than a single behemoth who is a near-peer rival. But nobody who chooses to disengage from the USA could possibly hope to find markets to replace us. We. Hold. All. The. Cards. China has very few.

So simple. Why did so few see it?

I think this is right. Threaten everyone, vast majority play ball, China bows up and gets isolated. Fairly predictable, especially if you got some allies quietly in your corner beforehand. If end result is we have better trade agreements generally and weaned ourselves off cheap Chinese goods (instead spreading across several other friendlier countries, combined with a little onshoring), that's a huge win. And it's one you want to get before we have the next global disruption (covid, war, etc.).
I think it's more he stumbled into it when he saw the tariff reactions, but I agree with your hopeful outcomes. It would be a positive for the U.S. and its allies. There's still going to be some pain in the interim due to a transition, but this objective I can actually see a clear strategic purpose.
Maybe, but not sure it matters. At a minimum, China could've chosen to act differently (but what were the odds).
ron.reagan
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ScottS said:

ron.reagan said:

RealEstateBear said:

Everybody against China. Here we go. Destroy the commie *******s
He didn't have to kick everyone in the nuts first to do this if that was his goal
If you know of Art of the Deal that is how its done. Btw, how did you get kicked in the nuts? This is basically been going on a grand total of about 3 or 4 business days. Thats it.
I was referring to the hundreds of countries/islands/penguins
ScottS
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ron.reagan said:

ScottS said:

ron.reagan said:

RealEstateBear said:

Everybody against China. Here we go. Destroy the commie *******s
He didn't have to kick everyone in the nuts first to do this if that was his goal
If you know of Art of the Deal that is how its done. Btw, how did you get kicked in the nuts? This is basically been going on a grand total of about 3 or 4 business days. Thats it.
I was referring to the hundreds of countries/islands/penguins



Again it was 3 or 4 business days.
J.R.
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whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:


the $4.5T in new investments announced thus far will more than offset the drop in consumption AND the budget cuts.
Need to see the deposit slips.
Redbrickbear
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Assassin
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Redbrickbear said:


He is one smart SOB.

In this particular instance, he was dealt a very nasty hand that he is trying to come back from. Biden screwed this country to hell and back
Facebook Groups at; Memories of: Dallas, Texas, Football in Texas, Texas Music, Through a Texas Lens and also Dallas History Guild. Come visit!
Redbrickbear
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Assassin
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Once again, Ackerman makes sense. Methinks he is coming around

Facebook Groups at; Memories of: Dallas, Texas, Football in Texas, Texas Music, Through a Texas Lens and also Dallas History Guild. Come visit!
boognish_bear
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Mothra said:

ATL Bear said:

Robert Wilson said:

whiterock said:

muddybrazos said:

Trump just did a 90 day pause on tariffs on everyone but China and raised them 125%. Bitcoin immediately rips back into the 80s!! LFG


LOL I've been telling the Panicans they're missing it. And they did.

Stand back & look at the tectonic plates here. Trump put tariffs on everyone and told all trade partners not to retaliate but to reach out to negotiate. 75+ nations did exactly what he asked. But China retaliated. Then Trump upped the ante to +100%. China responded yesterday with strong words: "If the U.S. insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end." Having baited China into the battle, he then announced a 90-day pause on everyone else and left China holding the bag. And there China sits in a battle it cannot win against the largest economy on earth, the second largest economy on earth, and dozens of other developed and developing countries.

A couple of days ago on this thread, I observed that Trump was attempting to make the world choose between economic alliance with China, or an economic alliance with the USA. That's where we are now. All of our trading partners that matter (a coalition of over 60% of world GDP) are choosing to deal with us. . And we will have as a precondition NO trans-shipments of Chinese goods thru their economies. China has an economy built to export; and just lost (or is at risk of losing) most of its export markets. It's like being dressed up for the ball when a game of touch football broke out.

China has an 17% share of US imports. So a 100% tariff on Chinese goods will have a macroeconomic impact of +2.55% on consumer prices. Easily offset by tax cuts..... We are a huge consumer market. China is not. We can get others to make what China makes. And it would be far better to diversify that production across 2-10 different countries rather than a single behemoth who is a near-peer rival. But nobody who chooses to disengage from the USA could possibly hope to find markets to replace us. We. Hold. All. The. Cards. China has very few.

So simple. Why did so few see it?

I think this is right. Threaten everyone, vast majority play ball, China bows up and gets isolated. Fairly predictable, especially if you got some allies quietly in your corner beforehand. If end result is we have better trade agreements generally and weaned ourselves off cheap Chinese goods (instead spreading across several other friendlier countries, combined with a little onshoring), that's a huge win. And it's one you want to get before we have the next global disruption (covid, war, etc.).
I think it's more he stumbled into it when he saw the tariff reactions, but I agree with your hopeful outcomes. It would be a positive for the U.S. and its allies. There's still going to be some pain in the interim due to a transition, but this objective I can actually see a clear strategic purpose.
Indeed. It will be spun as part of a plan, when it likely wasn't. Public reaction was simply too negative, and he succumbed to the pressure.


boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Maybe today's rebound will help these numbers in the next poll...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/where-trumps-approval-rating-president-stands-brand-new-national-poll

Where Trump's approval rating as president stands in a brand new national poll
Trump stands at 41% approval and 53% disapproval in a Quinnipiac University national survey conducted April 3-7 and released on Wednesday

Americans' concerns over the economy, and specifically inflation and tariffs, appear to be partially fueling the downward trend of President Donald Trump's approval ratings in a new national poll.

Trump stands at 41% approval and 53% disapproval in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted April 3-7 and released on Wednesday.

The president stood at 46%-43% approval/disapproval in a Quinnipiac poll conducted during his first week back in the White House, in late January. And Trump was slightly underwater at 45%-49% in mid-February. But the president's approval ratings are basically unchanged from Quinnipiac's previous survey, which was in the field early last month.

Most, but not all, of the most recent national public opinion surveys indicate Trump's approval ratings in negative territory, which is a slide from the president's poll position when he started his second tour of duty in the White House.

According to the new Quinnipiac poll, Trump stands at 40% approval and 55% disapproval on his handling of the economy. And asked how the president is dealing with the issue of trade, only 39% of respondents said they approved, while 55% gave Trump a thumbs down.

In the wake of Trump's blockbuster announcement last week to impose tariffs on dozens of countries across the globe, nearly three-quarters thought the tariffs would hurt the U.S. economy in the short term, while just over half said the move by the president would also hurt the nation's economy in the long term as well.

"A large majority of voters acknowledge the tariffs are delivering a bruising body blow to the economy in the near term. Will time reduce the pain? Some think it will, but a majority don't envision that happening," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy emphasized.


Given a list of four economic issues and asked which one worries voters the most right now, 47% of those questioned in the poll said the price of food and consumer goods, with one-in-five saying the cost of housing or rent, 17% saying the stock market, and 6% pointing to their job situation.

"In a rare moment of political unanimity, Democrats, Republicans and independents in equal numbers worry most about the prices of what they eat and what they buy," Malloy noted.


According to the poll, voters were divided over which party they think cares more about the needs and problems of people like them.

A third of respondents said the Democratic Party, with an equal amount (33%) saying the Republican Party. Thirty-one percent answered that neither party cared more.
whiterock
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J.R. said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:


the $4.5T in new investments announced thus far will more than offset the drop in consumption AND the budget cuts.
Need to see the deposit slips.

Indeed. Most of that will happen, if for no other reason than the businesses involved cannot risk crossing the orange man bad.

Here's the problem he's working. No matter how much economists and investors bristle at the idea that trade policy always serves national security policy…..it does.
whiterock
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I and others have noted this previously.

ron.reagan
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whiterock said:

I and others have noted this previously.


It's a common critique because it is an accurate critique.
boognish_bear
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This was from yesterday

boognish_bear
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The stock market has felt like crypto the last few weeks





boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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whiterock
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boognish_bear said:

The stock market has felt like crypto the last few weeks







So if China wants to liquidate USD……. Run the permutations.

There's no way they can punish anyone but themselves.

Assassin
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Facebook Groups at; Memories of: Dallas, Texas, Football in Texas, Texas Music, Through a Texas Lens and also Dallas History Guild. Come visit!
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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KaiBear
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Assassin said:




Trump was just lucky.
Assassin
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KaiBear said:

Assassin said:


Trump was just lucky.
With luck like that...
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Waco1947
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ScottS said:

Waco1947 said:

ScottS said:

Waco1947 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Redbrickbear said:

Robert Wilson said:

BearFan33 said:

boognish_bear said:

I'm not sure why there is some bounce back happening… But it's a good thing


Deals with countries are starting and the info is getting out. Those in the front of the line (Israel, Vietnam, Japan, maybe UK) will get better deals than those at the end of the line (China).
And Mexico, Vietnam etc will benefit if China does not play ball.

We don't have to "onshore" all the manufacturing to get a benefit. Having certain manufacturing functions moved from China (bad trade partner and geopolitical enemy across an ocean) to Mexico (better trade and geopolitical partner, not across an ocean) is also a win.

Amen

People keep forgetting a big part of this new program is moving our very vulnerable trade lines from Asia (threat of China, Russia, Iran, etc) and moving them to the Western Hemisphere.....where the powerful USA armed forces can protect them better in the event of any major conflict or crisis.

What if in 1941 all our factories and manufacturing had been in Europe or Asia? The USA would have been in a really bad spot during WWII
Agreed. And that doesn't mean we need to move everything to the western hemisphere. E.g. I'm good with t-shirts and tennis shoes being made in Vietnam, but critical goods / components (especially those that take a long time to spin up production) need to be within reach in the event of another major global disruption.

I think the markets have settled into this. They've baked in some disruption but also realize Trump is essentially forcing everyone to the table, and that the stragglers will be few (maybe substantively just China).
Trump Tariffs are poor way to get them. I agree more goods from Mexico and South America because labor is cheaper and supply physically closer to US



1947! Is opposed to something Trump is doing. Shocking. Why are you for them?




To get the negotiations and remove the high tariffs imposed on US companies.
Ain't working
Waco1947 ,la
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