I think this is right. Threaten everyone, vast majority play ball, China bows up and gets isolated. Fairly predictable, especially if you got some allies quietly in your corner beforehand. If end result is we have better trade agreements generally and weaned ourselves off cheap Chinese goods (instead spreading across several other friendlier countries, combined with a little onshoring), that's a huge win. And it's one you want to get before we have the next global disruption (covid, war, etc.).whiterock said:LOL I've been telling the Panicans they're missing it. And they did.muddybrazos said:
Trump just did a 90 day pause on tariffs on everyone but China and raised them 125%. Bitcoin immediately rips back into the 80s!! LFGlmao - Trump frontran his own announcement to pause tariffs by saying it's a "GREAT TIME TO BUY!" 3 hours before huge news for stocks hit.
— Coffeezilla (@coffeebreak_YT) April 9, 2025
this is levels of insanity we've never seen before. pic.twitter.com/efTsO4qlkA
Stand back & look at the tectonic plates here. Trump put tariffs on everyone and told all trade partners not to retaliate but to reach out to negotiate. 75+ nations did exactly what he asked. But China retaliated. Then Trump upped the ante to +100%. China responded yesterday with strong words: "If the U.S. insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end." Having baited China into the battle, he then announced a 90-day pause on everyone else and left China holding the bag. And there China sits in a battle it cannot win against the largest economy on earth, the second largest economy on earth, and dozens of other developed and developing countries.
A couple of days ago on this thread, I observed that Trump was attempting to make the world choose between economic alliance with China, or an economic alliance with the USA. That's where we are now. All of our trading partners that matter (a coalition of over 60% of world GDP) are choosing to deal with us. . And we will have as a precondition NO trans-shipments of Chinese goods thru their economies. China has an economy built to export; and just lost (or is at risk of losing) most of its export markets. It's like being dressed up for the ball when a game of touch football broke out.
China has an 17% share of US imports. So a 100% tariff on Chinese goods will have a macroeconomic impact of +2.55% on consumer prices. Easily offset by tax cuts..... We are a huge consumer market. China is not. We can get others to make what China makes. And it would be far better to diversify that production across 2-10 different countries rather than a single behemoth who is a near-peer rival. But nobody who chooses to disengage from the USA could possibly hope to find markets to replace us. We. Hold. All. The. Cards. China has very few.
So simple. Why did so few see it?