BREAKING: In a poll we conducted with over 60,000 responses, 55% of people currently support President Trump's tariffs. https://t.co/zswsMk9mlQ pic.twitter.com/1DySTJfC3A
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 3, 2025
BREAKING: In a poll we conducted with over 60,000 responses, 55% of people currently support President Trump's tariffs. https://t.co/zswsMk9mlQ pic.twitter.com/1DySTJfC3A
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 3, 2025
That's when we posted the below alert premium subscribers prior to the close yesterday.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 3, 2025
We took shorts at 5650 and outlined EXACTLY that, the market misread Trump.
These puts are now up +600% and we have secured profits.
Subscribe at the link below:https://t.co/SJRZ4FrNBc pic.twitter.com/NcljVziTzb
America has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
Sean's take would surprise many American farmers. The idea that we don't grow our own food is absurd.Assassin said:
Great take on what is going on in the USAAmerica has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
The U.S. once relied on tariffs before the income tax. But this wasn't because tariffs were ideal, it was because the federal government was smaller, and the economy was simpler. As industrialization advanced and our economy grew more complex, tariffs proved inadequate and regressive, and that's precisely why we moved toward income taxation. Not because of trade surpluses, but because we needed a more stable, equitable, and modern revenue base.whiterock said:ATL Bear said:You simpletons are absolute economic idiots. Making the working and middle class pay for their own economic demise through higher prices is one of the most evil ironies I've ever heard of. The jobs of the future are not manufacturing jobs, and using the false premise of trade deficits as "cheating" to push the job fairy tale is dtraight devious.whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Mothra said:So, in other words, this is about damaging other countries' economies more than helping our own. It will take years to change supply chain and manufacturing base, but at least over the course of the next two years we can damage their economies worse than they can damage ours. In the meantime, the American people take it in the shorts.whiterock said:muddled thinking. the purpose of tariffs is to address a trade deficit, which will benefit domestic manufacturers and jobs. Whether they are reciprocal or not depends on the nature of the abuse happening, e.g. look at the way China relocates production & transshipments to avoid existing trade restrictions. This is particularly true when it comes to trade subsidies (which many countries do) and non-tariff barriers to trade like the EU VAT.Robert Wilson said:Mothra said:So, when I first saw the list, I thought it was actually a reciprocal tariff based on the tariffs imposed by other countries, and I thought it might not be so bad.boognish_bear said:
Not sure if this is accurate across the board or not… Comments seemed to indicate soThis guy cracked the tariff formula:@orthonormalist
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April 2, 2025
It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us.
Yes. Really.
Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1
Deficit = 123.5
123.5/136.6 = 90% pic.twitter.com/fDOMoQwzKt
However, if this is truly the formula Trump used - which is based apparently on trade deficits - this is not a reciprocal tariff but instead a tariff that tries to get manufacturing to come back to the US - something that is likely never gonna happen in any large numbers.
In short, the Trump admin is misleading the American people by labeling this a reciprocal tariff. That's just a wholly false statement.
Such an entirely ridiculous and unnecessary move, and it's going to come back to bite him. Kiss the midterms goodbye. We are going to lose the House and the Senate. So dumb.
I hope Republicans who didn't skip Economics 101 will block this deal.
I'm with you. I could get on board with reciprocal tariffs. If we are instead enacting huge one sided tariffs just to counteract trade deficits, that's insane.
if you are going to pick this fight you have to smack hard coming out of the gate, to effectively deny entry to our market unless concessions are made. Your opponent, who has investments in an existing supply chain has to make hard decisions about whether he is going to abandon the supply chain or open up his own market to your goods. Sure, the wealthier countries will have at least theoretical options to consider, but it will take years for them to restructure and in the meantime they will incur more damage to their economy than they will inflict on ours (by virtue of having a trade surplus with us).
our position is quite strong and concessions from trade partners are a matter of when not if.
Such a silly strategy.
The silliest strategy of all is doing nothing and accepting the status quo, which is what you are advocating.
There are a lot of people in American who see nothing wrong with the status quo
They walk out of their expensive homes in their expensive neighborhoods and see nothing wrong with the current spoils system or how the economic pie is divided up
They are going to learn (by the ballot box or the bullet) how wrong they are
The red light is flashing...and the American electorate is signaling (potentially dangerously) revolutionary impulses
[America's newly elected president may be a demagogue and a populist, but what he is above all is a revolutionary.
In hoping to make America great again, Donald Trump promises to introduce a fundamental, comprehensive and rapid transformation of American political, economic, social and cultural institutions. Such a massive change is what we mean by the term "revolution."]
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4976570-america-has-elected-a-revolutionary-will-he-succeed/
The aversion to tariffs is a foremost luxury belief of the upper classes. THEIR careers are not impacted by a flood of cheap foreign goods……
If you understood why we have income tax vs tariffs today, it was instituted specifically so the working class didn't have to carry so much of the tax burden, and it could be transferred more to the wealthy.
This joker went to war with the world on trade all at the same time. Straight insanity!
Recto-cranial inversion there. We went to an income tax because we were a manufacturing powerhouse running consistent trade surpluses (which limits tax base if one depends on tariffs). But we've run consistently trade deficits since the 1970's (which creates the converse problem). So cutting payroll taxes and using tariffs to offset directly benefits WORKING CLASSES and fosters more manufacturing jobs (which pay more than flipping burgers and doing ride-share).
Doesn't matter how smart one is if one works so hard to remain obtuse on macroeconomics. Note Sargon' reference in my prior post about the distribution of GDP being overweighted in finance and real estate. Do you seriously mean to suggest that it's a good idea to become a nation whose business model is rent-seeking? That's one consequence of continuing the globalist model.
“I believe in a freer market than we have now. But I believe in national borders for markets. What kind of globalist says it’s a good thing if our factories move from here to China?”
— Logan Hall (@loganclarkhall) April 3, 2025
The arc of history is long but it bends toward Pat Buchanan being right about everything. pic.twitter.com/rL5TbKtb4c
We are losing our farms rapidly, over 140,000 farms in 5 yearsFrank Galvin said:Sean's take would surprise many American farmers. The idea that we don't grow our own food is absurd.Assassin said:
Great take on what is going on in the USAAmerica has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
u can have a hard on for him, but to say he has turned into one of the dumbest people in the country is just absurd. So what if he cashed out on a business he created? Happens dailymuddybrazos said:Mark Cuban has morphed into one the dumbest people in this country. Ever since he sold the mavs and the new owners destroyed the franchise and all good will they had in the city, I have nothing but disgust for Cuban.boognish_bear said:
Don't tell me we are gonna have a panic run on grocery stores like we did in COVID times?
Assassin said:We are losing our farms rapidly, over 140,000 farms in 5 yearsFrank Galvin said:Sean's take would surprise many American farmers. The idea that we don't grow our own food is absurd.Assassin said:
Great take on what is going on in the USAAmerica has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
https://www.fb.org/market-intel/over-140-000-farms-lost-in-5-years
Assassin said:We are losing our farms rapidly, over 140,000 farms in 5 yearsFrank Galvin said:Sean's take would surprise many American farmers. The idea that we don't grow our own food is absurd.Assassin said:
Great take on what is going on in the USAAmerica has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
https://www.fb.org/market-intel/over-140-000-farms-lost-in-5-years
I agree. I want manufacturing back, particularly high end and strategic. I also want rare earth and critical mineral production to grow here. But they are low human volume, highly automated with high skill requirement endeavors. We are lacking the workforce and deregulation to make that happen en masse, and you know tariffs don't solve those problems.ron.reagan said:I agree with all that. But would highlight the future is manufacturing, just not by humans. If we dominated in this industry we could still bring in a lot of jobs. If we had a much bigger piece of the pie the much smaller staff to run the plants could even outATL Bear said:You simpletons are absolute economic idiots. Making the working and middle class pay for their own economic demise through higher prices is one of the most evil ironies I've ever heard of. The jobs of the future are not manufacturing jobs, and using the false premise of trade deficits as "cheating" to push the job fairy tale is dtraight devious.whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Mothra said:So, in other words, this is about damaging other countries' economies more than helping our own. It will take years to change supply chain and manufacturing base, but at least over the course of the next two years we can damage their economies worse than they can damage ours. In the meantime, the American people take it in the shorts.whiterock said:muddled thinking. the purpose of tariffs is to address a trade deficit, which will benefit domestic manufacturers and jobs. Whether they are reciprocal or not depends on the nature of the abuse happening, e.g. look at the way China relocates production & transshipments to avoid existing trade restrictions. This is particularly true when it comes to trade subsidies (which many countries do) and non-tariff barriers to trade like the EU VAT.Robert Wilson said:Mothra said:So, when I first saw the list, I thought it was actually a reciprocal tariff based on the tariffs imposed by other countries, and I thought it might not be so bad.boognish_bear said:
Not sure if this is accurate across the board or not… Comments seemed to indicate soThis guy cracked the tariff formula:@orthonormalist
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April 2, 2025
It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us.
Yes. Really.
Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1
Deficit = 123.5
123.5/136.6 = 90% pic.twitter.com/fDOMoQwzKt
However, if this is truly the formula Trump used - which is based apparently on trade deficits - this is not a reciprocal tariff but instead a tariff that tries to get manufacturing to come back to the US - something that is likely never gonna happen in any large numbers.
In short, the Trump admin is misleading the American people by labeling this a reciprocal tariff. That's just a wholly false statement.
Such an entirely ridiculous and unnecessary move, and it's going to come back to bite him. Kiss the midterms goodbye. We are going to lose the House and the Senate. So dumb.
I hope Republicans who didn't skip Economics 101 will block this deal.
I'm with you. I could get on board with reciprocal tariffs. If we are instead enacting huge one sided tariffs just to counteract trade deficits, that's insane.
if you are going to pick this fight you have to smack hard coming out of the gate, to effectively deny entry to our market unless concessions are made. Your opponent, who has investments in an existing supply chain has to make hard decisions about whether he is going to abandon the supply chain or open up his own market to your goods. Sure, the wealthier countries will have at least theoretical options to consider, but it will take years for them to restructure and in the meantime they will incur more damage to their economy than they will inflict on ours (by virtue of having a trade surplus with us).
our position is quite strong and concessions from trade partners are a matter of when not if.
Such a silly strategy.
The silliest strategy of all is doing nothing and accepting the status quo, which is what you are advocating.
There are a lot of people in American who see nothing wrong with the status quo
They walk out of their expensive homes in their expensive neighborhoods and see nothing wrong with the current spoils system or how the economic pie is divided up
They are going to learn (by the ballot box or the bullet) how wrong they are
The red light is flashing...and the American electorate is signaling (potentially dangerously) revolutionary impulses
[America's newly elected president may be a demagogue and a populist, but what he is above all is a revolutionary.
In hoping to make America great again, Donald Trump promises to introduce a fundamental, comprehensive and rapid transformation of American political, economic, social and cultural institutions. Such a massive change is what we mean by the term "revolution."]
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4976570-america-has-elected-a-revolutionary-will-he-succeed/
The aversion to tariffs is a foremost luxury belief of the upper classes. THEIR careers are not impacted by a flood of cheap foreign goods……
If you understood why we have income tax vs tariffs today, it was instituted specifically so the working class didn't have to carry so much of the tax burden, and it could be transferred more to the wealthy.
This joker went to war with the world on trade all at the same time. Straight insanity!
Forgot about that.The_barBEARian said:Whoever invented the estate tax deserves to burn in human excrement for all time.Assassin said:We are losing our farms rapidly, over 140,000 farms in 5 yearsFrank Galvin said:Sean's take would surprise many American farmers. The idea that we don't grow our own food is absurd.Assassin said:
Great take on what is going on in the USAAmerica has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
https://www.fb.org/market-intel/over-140-000-farms-lost-in-5-years
Prior to the Trump tax cuts the estate tax hit families with as little as $2 million in property.... that destroyed more family farms than China could ever dream of!
We export to China 4 times more agriculture product than we import.Redbrickbear said:Assassin said:We are losing our farms rapidly, over 140,000 farms in 5 yearsFrank Galvin said:Sean's take would surprise many American farmers. The idea that we don't grow our own food is absurd.Assassin said:
Great take on what is going on in the USAAmerica has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
https://www.fb.org/market-intel/over-140-000-farms-lost-in-5-years
It's ok
We can rely on Communist China to feed us
Or we can eat plastic toys imported into Walmart
sombear said:We export to China 4 times more agriculture product than we import.Redbrickbear said:Assassin said:We are losing our farms rapidly, over 140,000 farms in 5 yearsFrank Galvin said:Sean's take would surprise many American farmers. The idea that we don't grow our own food is absurd.Assassin said:
Great take on what is going on in the USAAmerica has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
https://www.fb.org/market-intel/over-140-000-farms-lost-in-5-years
It's ok
We can rely on Communist China to feed us
Or we can eat plastic toys imported into Walmart
I don't follow farms but the number has almost nothing to do with output. This is like complaining you can't buy food because Walmart put so many grocery stores out of business. Consolidation is often better for outputRedbrickbear said:sombear said:We export to China 4 times more agriculture product than we import.Redbrickbear said:Assassin said:We are losing our farms rapidly, over 140,000 farms in 5 yearsFrank Galvin said:Sean's take would surprise many American farmers. The idea that we don't grow our own food is absurd.Assassin said:
Great take on what is going on in the USAAmerica has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
https://www.fb.org/market-intel/over-140-000-farms-lost-in-5-years
It's ok
We can rely on Communist China to feed us
Or we can eat plastic toys imported into Walmart
That will change fast if we keep closing down 140,000 farms every 5 years….
Globalism is a disaster for America b/c we are the givers & while the rest take.
— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) April 3, 2025
Either we decouple now or accept that America’s days as a leading producer & power are finite.
We can’t take the rest of the world’s burdens and place them on ourselves. It’s unsustainable.
The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:You asked my opinion on how to fix the issue, and I gave it to you. Without severe austerity measures, it won't be fixed.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:Tariffs are not going to change the course of the country. Not one iota. They will barely dent the debt. So don't be naive.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So we pay $15k more for the Dodge Caravan, but get a couple of thousand dollars back from the IRS in a couple of years when we file our tax returns. Sounds awesome.whiterock said:Mothra said:Not a chance in hell this makes any serious dent in the national debt. If I felt it would, I might be more on board, but it's just not going to happen. That will be due in part to the declining demand associated with what will become luxury items. The unintended consequence of tariffs is less demand.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So, the idea is that this is like a sales tax. Ergo, we should have no issue with this additional tax on top of same?The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:With American consumers footing the bill.The_barBEARian said:J.R. said:Tariffs will NOT pay down debt, period.The_barBEARian said:
Trump is using the tariffs to pay down our national debt.
Our national debt is a national crisis and our debt-to-GDP has never been greater.
If nothing is done, the interest on our debt will match our GDP in another decade.
You have a choice:
1) See your income and capital gains taxes go up to 50%(see the tax rate under Eisenhower) to attempt to save this country and pay down the debt
2) Use tariffs to pay down the debt and try to keep taxes relatively flat on the people who work and are productive citizens
3) Default on the debt, destroy the value of the USD, and balkanize the country
Now if Trump starts bombing Iran and getting us involved in another major war fighting Israel's enemies I am going to lose it! It was wasting American blood and treasure fighting Israel's wars in the middle east that sucked the wealth and prosperity out of this country and put this country in such a dire economic trajectory in the first place
Tariffs will quite literally generate money that will be used to pay down the debt.
They wont get us out of debt, but they will help.
Definitely a recipe for success come the midterms. Hey, it now costs $60k instead of $30k to purchase a minivan, but at least we helped pay down the debt! Let's vote Republican!
Should we abolish the sales tax?
Well I disagree with you that American consumers will necessarily "foot the bill" on tariffs. In some instances costs will increase but there wont be this universal cost increase on all goods.
And to the extent American consumers do "foot the bill" with regard to these tariffs, it is no different than the sales tax we already pay here in Texas.
If Trump is using these tariffs to bring down the debt without raising taxes, then I fully support them because I prefer a consumption tax to an income tax or capital gains tax increase. If our national debt is down or at least flat by the time Trump's term ends without Eisenhower era tax hikes, we should build a giant monument in Trumps honor.
The fact we have a sales tax in place is really completely irrelevant to whether having a consumption tax in place on top of a sales tax and income tax is a good idea. One does not justify the other.
Every economist I've seen who has looked at the tariffs has said Americans will indeed foot the bill. That's almost always the way it goes with tariffs. It's what happened to the automobile industry in the 60's and 70's, Americans almost exclusively paid the tab. There's no reason to believe this will be the exception to the norm.
Trumps plan is to offset the increased costs of tariffs with tax cuts. Sure, we don't know exactly how the trade war will conclude nor do we know exactly which taxes Congress will cut or by how much. But right now, his intentions are more than viable. To the extent that remains true, most of your last few posts are based on a false premise.
The alternative is the credit rating of the US crashes due to the national debt doubling our GDP and inflation causes the Dodge Caravan to cost $150k AND you pay thousands of dollars back to the IRS when you file your tax return.
The tariffs give us space to extend the individual and corporate tax cuts from Trump's first term that are about to expire.
Somebody has to be a big boy and make the difficult, big boy decisions... unfortunately we are a country filled with anxious idiots so I expect we'll see President Kamala in 2028.
The only way to reverse course is severe austerity measures - including cuts to welfare, medicare and social security.
How are we going to accomplish that when you cant even handle a 5% drop in the stock market without losing your mind?... also you forget to add the trillion dollars a year spent on defense that needs severe cost cutting.
Austerity measures would also slow economic growth.
We are stuck in a no-win scenario.
The status quo means utter destruction and the sooner we make difficult choices and course correct the less painful things have to be.
Tariffs should at minimum offset the extension of the Trump tax cuts that we have been enjoying over the last decade.
Would you rather we had no new tariffs but let the Trump tax cuts expire and revert back to the personal and corperate tax rates under Obama?
You seem to live in this fantasy that we can continue to operate massive billion dollar trade deficits while piling trillions onto our national debt every year and nothing bad will happen.
Your error is believing these tariffs are going to make a damn bit of difference.
I am 100% with you on the cost-cutting and reducing the size of government... but if this country doesn't even have the political will to accept a 10% flat tariff on foreign goods then cutting social welfare programs is a complete pipe dream.
I am personally annoyed Trump increased defense spending instead of cutting it in half.
FLBear5630 said:The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:You asked my opinion on how to fix the issue, and I gave it to you. Without severe austerity measures, it won't be fixed.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:Tariffs are not going to change the course of the country. Not one iota. They will barely dent the debt. So don't be naive.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So we pay $15k more for the Dodge Caravan, but get a couple of thousand dollars back from the IRS in a couple of years when we file our tax returns. Sounds awesome.whiterock said:Mothra said:Not a chance in hell this makes any serious dent in the national debt. If I felt it would, I might be more on board, but it's just not going to happen. That will be due in part to the declining demand associated with what will become luxury items. The unintended consequence of tariffs is less demand.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So, the idea is that this is like a sales tax. Ergo, we should have no issue with this additional tax on top of same?The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:With American consumers footing the bill.The_barBEARian said:J.R. said:Tariffs will NOT pay down debt, period.The_barBEARian said:
Trump is using the tariffs to pay down our national debt.
Our national debt is a national crisis and our debt-to-GDP has never been greater.
If nothing is done, the interest on our debt will match our GDP in another decade.
You have a choice:
1) See your income and capital gains taxes go up to 50%(see the tax rate under Eisenhower) to attempt to save this country and pay down the debt
2) Use tariffs to pay down the debt and try to keep taxes relatively flat on the people who work and are productive citizens
3) Default on the debt, destroy the value of the USD, and balkanize the country
Now if Trump starts bombing Iran and getting us involved in another major war fighting Israel's enemies I am going to lose it! It was wasting American blood and treasure fighting Israel's wars in the middle east that sucked the wealth and prosperity out of this country and put this country in such a dire economic trajectory in the first place
Tariffs will quite literally generate money that will be used to pay down the debt.
They wont get us out of debt, but they will help.
Definitely a recipe for success come the midterms. Hey, it now costs $60k instead of $30k to purchase a minivan, but at least we helped pay down the debt! Let's vote Republican!
Should we abolish the sales tax?
Well I disagree with you that American consumers will necessarily "foot the bill" on tariffs. In some instances costs will increase but there wont be this universal cost increase on all goods.
And to the extent American consumers do "foot the bill" with regard to these tariffs, it is no different than the sales tax we already pay here in Texas.
If Trump is using these tariffs to bring down the debt without raising taxes, then I fully support them because I prefer a consumption tax to an income tax or capital gains tax increase. If our national debt is down or at least flat by the time Trump's term ends without Eisenhower era tax hikes, we should build a giant monument in Trumps honor.
The fact we have a sales tax in place is really completely irrelevant to whether having a consumption tax in place on top of a sales tax and income tax is a good idea. One does not justify the other.
Every economist I've seen who has looked at the tariffs has said Americans will indeed foot the bill. That's almost always the way it goes with tariffs. It's what happened to the automobile industry in the 60's and 70's, Americans almost exclusively paid the tab. There's no reason to believe this will be the exception to the norm.
Trumps plan is to offset the increased costs of tariffs with tax cuts. Sure, we don't know exactly how the trade war will conclude nor do we know exactly which taxes Congress will cut or by how much. But right now, his intentions are more than viable. To the extent that remains true, most of your last few posts are based on a false premise.
The alternative is the credit rating of the US crashes due to the national debt doubling our GDP and inflation causes the Dodge Caravan to cost $150k AND you pay thousands of dollars back to the IRS when you file your tax return.
The tariffs give us space to extend the individual and corporate tax cuts from Trump's first term that are about to expire.
Somebody has to be a big boy and make the difficult, big boy decisions... unfortunately we are a country filled with anxious idiots so I expect we'll see President Kamala in 2028.
The only way to reverse course is severe austerity measures - including cuts to welfare, medicare and social security.
How are we going to accomplish that when you cant even handle a 5% drop in the stock market without losing your mind?... also you forget to add the trillion dollars a year spent on defense that needs severe cost cutting.
Austerity measures would also slow economic growth.
We are stuck in a no-win scenario.
The status quo means utter destruction and the sooner we make difficult choices and course correct the less painful things have to be.
Tariffs should at minimum offset the extension of the Trump tax cuts that we have been enjoying over the last decade.
Would you rather we had no new tariffs but let the Trump tax cuts expire and revert back to the personal and corperate tax rates under Obama?
You seem to live in this fantasy that we can continue to operate massive billion dollar trade deficits while piling trillions onto our national debt every year and nothing bad will happen.
Your error is believing these tariffs are going to make a damn bit of difference.
I am 100% with you on the cost-cutting and reducing the size of government... but if this country doesn't even have the political will to accept a 10% flat tariff on foreign goods then cutting social welfare programs is a complete pipe dream.
I am personally annoyed Trump increased defense spending instead of cutting it in half.
Cutting defense in half? You really thought he was going to cut? Dude, did you see what he did last time? Spending is going up... Once he is done with the retribution, he will spend. Bet you deficit is bigger when he leaves office.
Mothra said:So, in other words, this is about damaging other countries' economies more than helping our own. It will take years to change supply chain and manufacturing base, but at least over the course of the next two years we can damage their economies worse than they can damage ours. In the meantime, the American people take it in the shorts.whiterock said:muddled thinking. the purpose of tariffs is to address a trade deficit, which will benefit domestic manufacturers and jobs. Whether they are reciprocal or not depends on the nature of the abuse happening, e.g. look at the way China relocates production & transshipments to avoid existing trade restrictions. This is particularly true when it comes to trade subsidies (which many countries do) and non-tariff barriers to trade like the EU VAT.Robert Wilson said:Mothra said:So, when I first saw the list, I thought it was actually a reciprocal tariff based on the tariffs imposed by other countries, and I thought it might not be so bad.boognish_bear said:
Not sure if this is accurate across the board or not… Comments seemed to indicate soThis guy cracked the tariff formula:@orthonormalist
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April 2, 2025
It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us.
Yes. Really.
Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1
Deficit = 123.5
123.5/136.6 = 90% pic.twitter.com/fDOMoQwzKt
However, if this is truly the formula Trump used - which is based apparently on trade deficits - this is not a reciprocal tariff but instead a tariff that tries to get manufacturing to come back to the US - something that is likely never gonna happen in any large numbers.
In short, the Trump admin is misleading the American people by labeling this a reciprocal tariff. That's just a wholly false statement.
Such an entirely ridiculous and unnecessary move, and it's going to come back to bite him. Kiss the midterms goodbye. We are going to lose the House and the Senate. So dumb.
I hope Republicans who didn't skip Economics 101 will block this deal.
I'm with you. I could get on board with reciprocal tariffs. If we are instead enacting huge one sided tariffs just to counteract trade deficits, that's insane.
if you are going to pick this fight you have to smack hard coming out of the gate, to effectively deny entry to our market unless concessions are made. Your opponent, who has investments in an existing supply chain has to make hard decisions about whether he is going to abandon the supply chain or open up his own market to your goods. Sure, the wealthier countries will have at least theoretical options to consider, but it will take years for them to restructure and in the meantime they will incur more damage to their economy than they will inflict on ours (by virtue of having a trade surplus with us).
our position is quite strong and concessions from trade partners are a matter of when not if.
Such a silly strategy.
Cruz: Tariffs are a tax on consumers, and I'm not a fan of jacking up taxes on American consumers. pic.twitter.com/4H2A5kdHp7
— Acyn (@Acyn) April 3, 2025
He morphed into a TDS lesbo looking freak long before he sold the mavs. He's a moron that got lucky back in 2000. He has the right to sell the team to whomever he chooses but the people he chose suck and now they have ruined the team for most fans. The mavs have about a 4 year window and no once in a generation star.to build around. Nobody in the history of sports can even think of a trade this dumb.J.R. said:u can have a hard on for him, but to say he has turned into one of the dumbest people in the country is just absurd. So what if he cashed out on a business he created? Happens dailymuddybrazos said:Mark Cuban has morphed into one the dumbest people in this country. Ever since he sold the mavs and the new owners destroyed the franchise and all good will they had in the city, I have nothing but disgust for Cuban.boognish_bear said:
Don't tell me we are gonna have a panic run on grocery stores like we did in COVID times?
The markets were great (or high, at least, I kinda like the dip), but Trump's core electorate sings "somebody told us Wall Street fell, but we were so poor that we couldn't tell." They don't care. They want decent paying blue collar jobs back. I don't know that it's possible, but he is playing to his core demographic.Porteroso said:Mothra said:So, in other words, this is about damaging other countries' economies more than helping our own. It will take years to change supply chain and manufacturing base, but at least over the course of the next two years we can damage their economies worse than they can damage ours. In the meantime, the American people take it in the shorts.whiterock said:muddled thinking. the purpose of tariffs is to address a trade deficit, which will benefit domestic manufacturers and jobs. Whether they are reciprocal or not depends on the nature of the abuse happening, e.g. look at the way China relocates production & transshipments to avoid existing trade restrictions. This is particularly true when it comes to trade subsidies (which many countries do) and non-tariff barriers to trade like the EU VAT.Robert Wilson said:Mothra said:So, when I first saw the list, I thought it was actually a reciprocal tariff based on the tariffs imposed by other countries, and I thought it might not be so bad.boognish_bear said:
Not sure if this is accurate across the board or not… Comments seemed to indicate soThis guy cracked the tariff formula:@orthonormalist
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April 2, 2025
It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us.
Yes. Really.
Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1
Deficit = 123.5
123.5/136.6 = 90% pic.twitter.com/fDOMoQwzKt
However, if this is truly the formula Trump used - which is based apparently on trade deficits - this is not a reciprocal tariff but instead a tariff that tries to get manufacturing to come back to the US - something that is likely never gonna happen in any large numbers.
In short, the Trump admin is misleading the American people by labeling this a reciprocal tariff. That's just a wholly false statement.
Such an entirely ridiculous and unnecessary move, and it's going to come back to bite him. Kiss the midterms goodbye. We are going to lose the House and the Senate. So dumb.
I hope Republicans who didn't skip Economics 101 will block this deal.
I'm with you. I could get on board with reciprocal tariffs. If we are instead enacting huge one sided tariffs just to counteract trade deficits, that's insane.
if you are going to pick this fight you have to smack hard coming out of the gate, to effectively deny entry to our market unless concessions are made. Your opponent, who has investments in an existing supply chain has to make hard decisions about whether he is going to abandon the supply chain or open up his own market to your goods. Sure, the wealthier countries will have at least theoretical options to consider, but it will take years for them to restructure and in the meantime they will incur more damage to their economy than they will inflict on ours (by virtue of having a trade surplus with us).
our position is quite strong and concessions from trade partners are a matter of when not if.
Such a silly strategy.
Nobody who claims to know the point of this should be listened to. Not even Trump's cabinet knows what is going on. I heard Teeasury Secretary say yesterday it was the absolute ceiling, and today Trump floats more tariffs.
Truth is not a single person in the world understands how we get from point A to point B. Nobody even quite knows what point B is. All we know is point A was a great economy, great markets in January.
The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So we pay $15k more for the Dodge Caravan, but get a couple of thousand dollars back from the IRS in a couple of years when we file our tax returns. Sounds awesome.whiterock said:Mothra said:Not a chance in hell this makes any serious dent in the national debt. If I felt it would, I might be more on board, but it's just not going to happen. That will be due in part to the declining demand associated with what will become luxury items. The unintended consequence of tariffs is less demand.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So, the idea is that this is like a sales tax. Ergo, we should have no issue with this additional tax on top of same?The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:With American consumers footing the bill.The_barBEARian said:J.R. said:Tariffs will NOT pay down debt, period.The_barBEARian said:
Trump is using the tariffs to pay down our national debt.
Our national debt is a national crisis and our debt-to-GDP has never been greater.
If nothing is done, the interest on our debt will match our GDP in another decade.
You have a choice:
1) See your income and capital gains taxes go up to 50%(see the tax rate under Eisenhower) to attempt to save this country and pay down the debt
2) Use tariffs to pay down the debt and try to keep taxes relatively flat on the people who work and are productive citizens
3) Default on the debt, destroy the value of the USD, and balkanize the country
Now if Trump starts bombing Iran and getting us involved in another major war fighting Israel's enemies I am going to lose it! It was wasting American blood and treasure fighting Israel's wars in the middle east that sucked the wealth and prosperity out of this country and put this country in such a dire economic trajectory in the first place
Tariffs will quite literally generate money that will be used to pay down the debt.
They wont get us out of debt, but they will help.
Definitely a recipe for success come the midterms. Hey, it now costs $60k instead of $30k to purchase a minivan, but at least we helped pay down the debt! Let's vote Republican!
Should we abolish the sales tax?
Well I disagree with you that American consumers will necessarily "foot the bill" on tariffs. In some instances costs will increase but there wont be this universal cost increase on all goods.
And to the extent American consumers do "foot the bill" with regard to these tariffs, it is no different than the sales tax we already pay here in Texas.
If Trump is using these tariffs to bring down the debt without raising taxes, then I fully support them because I prefer a consumption tax to an income tax or capital gains tax increase. If our national debt is down or at least flat by the time Trump's term ends without Eisenhower era tax hikes, we should build a giant monument in Trumps honor.
The fact we have a sales tax in place is really completely irrelevant to whether having a consumption tax in place on top of a sales tax and income tax is a good idea. One does not justify the other.
Every economist I've seen who has looked at the tariffs has said Americans will indeed foot the bill. That's almost always the way it goes with tariffs. It's what happened to the automobile industry in the 60's and 70's, Americans almost exclusively paid the tab. There's no reason to believe this will be the exception to the norm.
Trumps plan is to offset the increased costs of tariffs with tax cuts. Sure, we don't know exactly how the trade war will conclude nor do we know exactly which taxes Congress will cut or by how much. But right now, his intentions are more than viable. To the extent that remains true, most of your last few posts are based on a false premise.
The alternative is the credit rating of the US crashes due to the national debt doubling our GDP and inflation causes the Dodge Caravan to cost $150k AND you pay thousands of dollars back to the IRS when you file your tax return.
The tariffs give us space to extend the individual and corporate tax cuts from Trump's first term that are about to expire.
Somebody has to be a big boy and make the difficult, big boy decisions... unfortunately we are a country filled with anxious idiots so I expect we'll see President Kamala in 2028.
Porteroso said:The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So we pay $15k more for the Dodge Caravan, but get a couple of thousand dollars back from the IRS in a couple of years when we file our tax returns. Sounds awesome.whiterock said:Mothra said:Not a chance in hell this makes any serious dent in the national debt. If I felt it would, I might be more on board, but it's just not going to happen. That will be due in part to the declining demand associated with what will become luxury items. The unintended consequence of tariffs is less demand.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So, the idea is that this is like a sales tax. Ergo, we should have no issue with this additional tax on top of same?The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:With American consumers footing the bill.The_barBEARian said:J.R. said:Tariffs will NOT pay down debt, period.The_barBEARian said:
Trump is using the tariffs to pay down our national debt.
Our national debt is a national crisis and our debt-to-GDP has never been greater.
If nothing is done, the interest on our debt will match our GDP in another decade.
You have a choice:
1) See your income and capital gains taxes go up to 50%(see the tax rate under Eisenhower) to attempt to save this country and pay down the debt
2) Use tariffs to pay down the debt and try to keep taxes relatively flat on the people who work and are productive citizens
3) Default on the debt, destroy the value of the USD, and balkanize the country
Now if Trump starts bombing Iran and getting us involved in another major war fighting Israel's enemies I am going to lose it! It was wasting American blood and treasure fighting Israel's wars in the middle east that sucked the wealth and prosperity out of this country and put this country in such a dire economic trajectory in the first place
Tariffs will quite literally generate money that will be used to pay down the debt.
They wont get us out of debt, but they will help.
Definitely a recipe for success come the midterms. Hey, it now costs $60k instead of $30k to purchase a minivan, but at least we helped pay down the debt! Let's vote Republican!
Should we abolish the sales tax?
Well I disagree with you that American consumers will necessarily "foot the bill" on tariffs. In some instances costs will increase but there wont be this universal cost increase on all goods.
And to the extent American consumers do "foot the bill" with regard to these tariffs, it is no different than the sales tax we already pay here in Texas.
If Trump is using these tariffs to bring down the debt without raising taxes, then I fully support them because I prefer a consumption tax to an income tax or capital gains tax increase. If our national debt is down or at least flat by the time Trump's term ends without Eisenhower era tax hikes, we should build a giant monument in Trumps honor.
The fact we have a sales tax in place is really completely irrelevant to whether having a consumption tax in place on top of a sales tax and income tax is a good idea. One does not justify the other.
Every economist I've seen who has looked at the tariffs has said Americans will indeed foot the bill. That's almost always the way it goes with tariffs. It's what happened to the automobile industry in the 60's and 70's, Americans almost exclusively paid the tab. There's no reason to believe this will be the exception to the norm.
Trumps plan is to offset the increased costs of tariffs with tax cuts. Sure, we don't know exactly how the trade war will conclude nor do we know exactly which taxes Congress will cut or by how much. But right now, his intentions are more than viable. To the extent that remains true, most of your last few posts are based on a false premise.
The alternative is the credit rating of the US crashes due to the national debt doubling our GDP and inflation causes the Dodge Caravan to cost $150k AND you pay thousands of dollars back to the IRS when you file your tax return.
The tariffs give us space to extend the individual and corporate tax cuts from Trump's first term that are about to expire.
Somebody has to be a big boy and make the difficult, big boy decisions... unfortunately we are a country filled with anxious idiots so I expect we'll see President Kamala in 2028.
No. Totally ignorant. And the worst case scenario here is nothing to do with counter tariffs, it is China invading Japan, Taiwan, and helping N Korea take S Korea, then freezing the US out of the world economy by negotiating a deal with Europe that subsidized Chinese goods in exchange for the Europeans tariffing the **** out of the USA.
We will lose our world status, then slowly our military and technological advantage as we enter into a deep recession where not only do we depend on made in the USA goods, many of which don't exist, the retirement accounts of generations are wiped out while we try to figure out how to keep from going into more than 38tn debt.
Of course there are worse scenarios, but what we have in effect done is declare economic war on the world, and especially Asia. Either we will win entirely, or there will be massive consequences.
the trade had nothing to do with Cubes. Cubes would never have made that trade. The Vegas Carbetbaggers did . Cubes knew only 5 min. before it was announced. I could care less about the Mavs. Give me the other team that plays at the AAC every day.muddybrazos said:He morphed into a TDS lesbo looking freak long before he sold the mavs. He's a moron that got lucky back in 2000. He has the right to sell the team to whomever he chooses but the people he chose suck and now they have ruined the team for most fans. The mavs have about a 4 year window and no once in a generation star.to build around. Nobody in the history of sports can even think of a trade this dumb.J.R. said:u can have a hard on for him, but to say he has turned into one of the dumbest people in the country is just absurd. So what if he cashed out on a business he created? Happens dailymuddybrazos said:Mark Cuban has morphed into one the dumbest people in this country. Ever since he sold the mavs and the new owners destroyed the franchise and all good will they had in the city, I have nothing but disgust for Cuban.boognish_bear said:
Don't tell me we are gonna have a panic run on grocery stores like we did in COVID times?
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 JPMorgan says President Trump's tariffs are the largest US tax hike since 1968.
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 3, 2025
...except the tariffs Trump put on are paid by other countries. Could it be past to the comsumer, yes but you might just buy something US made instead. You don't have to pay the tariff.boognish_bear said:JUST IN: 🇺🇸 JPMorgan says President Trump's tariffs are the largest US tax hike since 1968.
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 3, 2025
The_barBEARian said:FLBear5630 said:The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:You asked my opinion on how to fix the issue, and I gave it to you. Without severe austerity measures, it won't be fixed.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:Tariffs are not going to change the course of the country. Not one iota. They will barely dent the debt. So don't be naive.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So we pay $15k more for the Dodge Caravan, but get a couple of thousand dollars back from the IRS in a couple of years when we file our tax returns. Sounds awesome.whiterock said:Mothra said:Not a chance in hell this makes any serious dent in the national debt. If I felt it would, I might be more on board, but it's just not going to happen. That will be due in part to the declining demand associated with what will become luxury items. The unintended consequence of tariffs is less demand.The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:So, the idea is that this is like a sales tax. Ergo, we should have no issue with this additional tax on top of same?The_barBEARian said:Mothra said:With American consumers footing the bill.The_barBEARian said:J.R. said:Tariffs will NOT pay down debt, period.The_barBEARian said:
Trump is using the tariffs to pay down our national debt.
Our national debt is a national crisis and our debt-to-GDP has never been greater.
If nothing is done, the interest on our debt will match our GDP in another decade.
You have a choice:
1) See your income and capital gains taxes go up to 50%(see the tax rate under Eisenhower) to attempt to save this country and pay down the debt
2) Use tariffs to pay down the debt and try to keep taxes relatively flat on the people who work and are productive citizens
3) Default on the debt, destroy the value of the USD, and balkanize the country
Now if Trump starts bombing Iran and getting us involved in another major war fighting Israel's enemies I am going to lose it! It was wasting American blood and treasure fighting Israel's wars in the middle east that sucked the wealth and prosperity out of this country and put this country in such a dire economic trajectory in the first place
Tariffs will quite literally generate money that will be used to pay down the debt.
They wont get us out of debt, but they will help.
Definitely a recipe for success come the midterms. Hey, it now costs $60k instead of $30k to purchase a minivan, but at least we helped pay down the debt! Let's vote Republican!
Should we abolish the sales tax?
Well I disagree with you that American consumers will necessarily "foot the bill" on tariffs. In some instances costs will increase but there wont be this universal cost increase on all goods.
And to the extent American consumers do "foot the bill" with regard to these tariffs, it is no different than the sales tax we already pay here in Texas.
If Trump is using these tariffs to bring down the debt without raising taxes, then I fully support them because I prefer a consumption tax to an income tax or capital gains tax increase. If our national debt is down or at least flat by the time Trump's term ends without Eisenhower era tax hikes, we should build a giant monument in Trumps honor.
The fact we have a sales tax in place is really completely irrelevant to whether having a consumption tax in place on top of a sales tax and income tax is a good idea. One does not justify the other.
Every economist I've seen who has looked at the tariffs has said Americans will indeed foot the bill. That's almost always the way it goes with tariffs. It's what happened to the automobile industry in the 60's and 70's, Americans almost exclusively paid the tab. There's no reason to believe this will be the exception to the norm.
Trumps plan is to offset the increased costs of tariffs with tax cuts. Sure, we don't know exactly how the trade war will conclude nor do we know exactly which taxes Congress will cut or by how much. But right now, his intentions are more than viable. To the extent that remains true, most of your last few posts are based on a false premise.
The alternative is the credit rating of the US crashes due to the national debt doubling our GDP and inflation causes the Dodge Caravan to cost $150k AND you pay thousands of dollars back to the IRS when you file your tax return.
The tariffs give us space to extend the individual and corporate tax cuts from Trump's first term that are about to expire.
Somebody has to be a big boy and make the difficult, big boy decisions... unfortunately we are a country filled with anxious idiots so I expect we'll see President Kamala in 2028.
The only way to reverse course is severe austerity measures - including cuts to welfare, medicare and social security.
How are we going to accomplish that when you cant even handle a 5% drop in the stock market without losing your mind?... also you forget to add the trillion dollars a year spent on defense that needs severe cost cutting.
Austerity measures would also slow economic growth.
We are stuck in a no-win scenario.
The status quo means utter destruction and the sooner we make difficult choices and course correct the less painful things have to be.
Tariffs should at minimum offset the extension of the Trump tax cuts that we have been enjoying over the last decade.
Would you rather we had no new tariffs but let the Trump tax cuts expire and revert back to the personal and corperate tax rates under Obama?
You seem to live in this fantasy that we can continue to operate massive billion dollar trade deficits while piling trillions onto our national debt every year and nothing bad will happen.
Your error is believing these tariffs are going to make a damn bit of difference.
I am 100% with you on the cost-cutting and reducing the size of government... but if this country doesn't even have the political will to accept a 10% flat tariff on foreign goods then cutting social welfare programs is a complete pipe dream.
I am personally annoyed Trump increased defense spending instead of cutting it in half.
Cutting defense in half? You really thought he was going to cut? Dude, did you see what he did last time? Spending is going up... Once he is done with the retribution, he will spend. Bet you deficit is bigger when he leaves office.
If the deficit is up when he leaves office I would be extremely pissed off.... and it annoys me that you are probably correct

ScottS said:...except the tariffs Trump put on are paid by other countries. Could it be past to the comsumer, yes but you might just buy something US made instead. You don't have to pay the tariff.boognish_bear said:JUST IN: 🇺🇸 JPMorgan says President Trump's tariffs are the largest US tax hike since 1968.
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 3, 2025
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 General Motors to increase US truck production following Trump's tariffs.
— Remarks (@remarks) April 3, 2025
Except it hasn't. Exports have steadily increased.Redbrickbear said:sombear said:We export to China 4 times more agriculture product than we import.Redbrickbear said:Assassin said:We are losing our farms rapidly, over 140,000 farms in 5 yearsFrank Galvin said:Sean's take would surprise many American farmers. The idea that we don't grow our own food is absurd.Assassin said:
Great take on what is going on in the USAAmerica has become addicted to cheap foreign baubles and easy money (i.e., fake fiat currency) at the expense of its long-term economic health. We allowed ourselves to be transformed from a cast iron economy which made things into a largely paper economy which depends on the good… pic.twitter.com/kGJetkN2YK
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 3, 2025
https://www.fb.org/market-intel/over-140-000-farms-lost-in-5-years
It's ok
We can rely on Communist China to feed us
Or we can eat plastic toys imported into Walmart
That will change fast if we keep closing down 140,000 farms every 5 years….
I don't see Congress getting rid of income taxes. Get back to me when they do.boognish_bear said:ScottS said:...except the tariffs Trump put on are paid by other countries. Could it be past to the comsumer, yes but you might just buy something US made instead. You don't have to pay the tariff.boognish_bear said:JUST IN: 🇺🇸 JPMorgan says President Trump's tariffs are the largest US tax hike since 1968.
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 3, 2025
Trump said the tariff money can be used to help eliminate income taxes. So everyone buying American wouldn't help that out...
Watters: What kind of manufacturing are you talking about returning here?
— Acyn (@Acyn) April 4, 2025
Lutnick: What's going to happen is robotics are going to replace the cheap labor… pic.twitter.com/k9UPNhuvU1
boognish_bear said:Watters: What kind of manufacturing are you talking about returning here?
— Acyn (@Acyn) April 4, 2025
Lutnick: What's going to happen is robotics are going to replace the cheap labor… pic.twitter.com/k9UPNhuvU1