April 2nd Reciprocal Tariffs

273,194 Views | 3859 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by RD2WINAGNBEAR86
KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

I doubt it. Beef producers simply sell, they know the market is fickle. You totally made that up didn't you?


As a former ' beef producer ' who sold thousands of head , can assure I always sold based on the price.

Never ' simply sell '.

That is ridiculous.

So when prices are high, you wouldnt sell,and grow your herd instead? And how long were you able to keep cows grazing when the market was up? Did you really have enough land to hold cows off from auction for a year? 2 years?

No matter what the market conditions are, most beef producers simply need to sell beef. They might sell less if the price is low, but not sell when the price is high? Nope.


My animals didn't graze….were all in corrals. And I would definitely hold and sell based on all kinds of factors including market price.

On one occasion I didn't breed my springers for an additional 8 months and sold older head. Cost me a few nickels in the short run but paid off the following year.

Plus it reduced the overall age of the herd which improved productivity.



At least in the Dairy world it is pretty sophisticated now, they have programs that monitor and spell out the schedules needed. Dairy is a more- daily commitment. But their herd management is everything.


Almost every dairy operation up here is so far in debt to the banks the owners will never get out from under their thumb
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

I doubt it. Beef producers simply sell, they know the market is fickle. You totally made that up didn't you?


As a former ' beef producer ' who sold thousands of head , can assure I always sold based on the price.

Never ' simply sell '.

That is ridiculous.

So when prices are high, you wouldnt sell,and grow your herd instead? And how long were you able to keep cows grazing when the market was up? Did you really have enough land to hold cows off from auction for a year? 2 years?

No matter what the market conditions are, most beef producers simply need to sell beef. They might sell less if the price is low, but not sell when the price is high? Nope.


My animals didn't graze….were all in corrals. And I would definitely hold and sell based on all kinds of factors including market price.

On one occasion I didn't breed my springers for an additional 8 months and sold older head. Cost me a few nickels in the short run but paid off the following year.

Plus it reduced the overall age of the herd which improved productivity.



At least in the Dairy world it is pretty sophisticated now, they have programs that monitor and spell out the schedules needed. Dairy is a more- daily commitment. But their herd management is everything.


Almost every dairy operation up here is so far in debt to the banks the owners will never get out from under their thumb

Funny. Do they want to? My Brother-in-Laws farm. It was a big Farm Family, 7 kids.

1 Brother - Animals
1 Brother - Machinary
1 Brother - Ag-Economics/Banking

I will never forget the conversations on "optimal debt". You can have too much, but you can also have too little. The farms I know, work on draws and have personal relationships with bankers.
KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

I doubt it. Beef producers simply sell, they know the market is fickle. You totally made that up didn't you?


As a former ' beef producer ' who sold thousands of head , can assure I always sold based on the price.

Never ' simply sell '.

That is ridiculous.

So when prices are high, you wouldnt sell,and grow your herd instead? And how long were you able to keep cows grazing when the market was up? Did you really have enough land to hold cows off from auction for a year? 2 years?

No matter what the market conditions are, most beef producers simply need to sell beef. They might sell less if the price is low, but not sell when the price is high? Nope.


My animals didn't graze….were all in corrals. And I would definitely hold and sell based on all kinds of factors including market price.

On one occasion I didn't breed my springers for an additional 8 months and sold older head. Cost me a few nickels in the short run but paid off the following year.

Plus it reduced the overall age of the herd which improved productivity.



At least in the Dairy world it is pretty sophisticated now, they have programs that monitor and spell out the schedules needed. Dairy is a more- daily commitment. But their herd management is everything.


Almost every dairy operation up here is so far in debt to the banks the owners will never get out from under their thumb

Funny. Do they want to? My Brother-in-Laws farm. It was a big Farm Family, 7 kids.

1 Brother - Animals
1 Brother - Machinary
1 Brother - Ag-Economics/Banking

I will never forget the conversations on "optimal debt". You can have too much, but you can also have too little. The farms I know, work on draws and have personal relationships with bankers.



You are not the owner if the banks can destroy you any time they wish.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

I doubt it. Beef producers simply sell, they know the market is fickle. You totally made that up didn't you?


As a former ' beef producer ' who sold thousands of head , can assure I always sold based on the price.

Never ' simply sell '.

That is ridiculous.

So when prices are high, you wouldnt sell,and grow your herd instead? And how long were you able to keep cows grazing when the market was up? Did you really have enough land to hold cows off from auction for a year? 2 years?

No matter what the market conditions are, most beef producers simply need to sell beef. They might sell less if the price is low, but not sell when the price is high? Nope.


My animals didn't graze….were all in corrals. And I would definitely hold and sell based on all kinds of factors including market price.

On one occasion I didn't breed my springers for an additional 8 months and sold older head. Cost me a few nickels in the short run but paid off the following year.

Plus it reduced the overall age of the herd which improved productivity.



At least in the Dairy world it is pretty sophisticated now, they have programs that monitor and spell out the schedules needed. Dairy is a more- daily commitment. But their herd management is everything.


Almost every dairy operation up here is so far in debt to the banks the owners will never get out from under their thumb

Funny. Do they want to? My Brother-in-Laws farm. It was a big Farm Family, 7 kids.

1 Brother - Animals
1 Brother - Machinary
1 Brother - Ag-Economics/Banking

I will never forget the conversations on "optimal debt". You can have too much, but you can also have too little. The farms I know, work on draws and have personal relationships with bankers.



You are not the owner if the banks can destroy you any time they wish.

Ok. Sure.

Anyone that has a mortgage is not an owner.

Do you want to talk farming as a business or hobby farming? How many "working farms" and "ranches" are owned free and clear? There is a huge difference between solvency and debt free. You can be debt free and not solvent. Solvency is more important.

We are talking demand for Beef and imports for 365 million people. You think free and clear hobby farms are going to impact that demand curve?
KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

I doubt it. Beef producers simply sell, they know the market is fickle. You totally made that up didn't you?


As a former ' beef producer ' who sold thousands of head , can assure I always sold based on the price.

Never ' simply sell '.

That is ridiculous.

So when prices are high, you wouldnt sell,and grow your herd instead? And how long were you able to keep cows grazing when the market was up? Did you really have enough land to hold cows off from auction for a year? 2 years?

No matter what the market conditions are, most beef producers simply need to sell beef. They might sell less if the price is low, but not sell when the price is high? Nope.


My animals didn't graze….were all in corrals. And I would definitely hold and sell based on all kinds of factors including market price.

On one occasion I didn't breed my springers for an additional 8 months and sold older head. Cost me a few nickels in the short run but paid off the following year.

Plus it reduced the overall age of the herd which improved productivity.



At least in the Dairy world it is pretty sophisticated now, they have programs that monitor and spell out the schedules needed. Dairy is a more- daily commitment. But their herd management is everything.


Almost every dairy operation up here is so far in debt to the banks the owners will never get out from under their thumb

Funny. Do they want to? My Brother-in-Laws farm. It was a big Farm Family, 7 kids.

1 Brother - Animals
1 Brother - Machinary
1 Brother - Ag-Economics/Banking

I will never forget the conversations on "optimal debt". You can have too much, but you can also have too little. The farms I know, work on draws and have personal relationships with bankers.



You are not the owner if the banks can destroy you any time they wish.

Ok. Sure.

Anyone that has a mortgage is not an owner.

Do you want to talk farming as a business or hobby farming? How many "working farms" and "ranches" are owned free and clear? There is a huge difference between solvency and debt free. You can be debt free and not solvent. Solvency is more important.

We are talking demand for Beef and imports for 365 million people. You think free and clear hobby farms are going to impact that demand curve?


You don't understand.

Iif you owe the banks 12 million dollars and milk is below support price……..

and the bank decides not to refinance your debt still again….

you are finished.


Everything you have ever worked for is gone.

And usually you are too old to start over.


I realize this is hard for the paycheck to paycheck crowd to comprehend……

But there it is .


FWIW almost every single dairyman I knew in El Paso eventually lost their operation.
Adriacus Peratuun
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

I doubt it. Beef producers simply sell, they know the market is fickle. You totally made that up didn't you?


As a former ' beef producer ' who sold thousands of head , can assure I always sold based on the price.

Never ' simply sell '.

That is ridiculous.

So when prices are high, you wouldnt sell,and grow your herd instead? And how long were you able to keep cows grazing when the market was up? Did you really have enough land to hold cows off from auction for a year? 2 years?

No matter what the market conditions are, most beef producers simply need to sell beef. They might sell less if the price is low, but not sell when the price is high? Nope.


My animals didn't graze….were all in corrals. And I would definitely hold and sell based on all kinds of factors including market price.

On one occasion I didn't breed my springers for an additional 8 months and sold older head. Cost me a few nickels in the short run but paid off the following year.

Plus it reduced the overall age of the herd which improved productivity.



At least in the Dairy world it is pretty sophisticated now, they have programs that monitor and spell out the schedules needed. Dairy is a more- daily commitment. But their herd management is everything.


Almost every dairy operation up here is so far in debt to the banks the owners will never get out from under their thumb

Funny. Do they want to? My Brother-in-Laws farm. It was a big Farm Family, 7 kids.

1 Brother - Animals
1 Brother - Machinary
1 Brother - Ag-Economics/Banking

I will never forget the conversations on "optimal debt". You can have too much, but you can also have too little. The farms I know, work on draws and have personal relationships with bankers.



You are not the owner if the banks can destroy you any time they wish.

Ok. Sure.

Anyone that has a mortgage is not an owner.

Do you want to talk farming as a business or hobby farming? How many "working farms" and "ranches" are owned free and clear? There is a huge difference between solvency and debt free. You can be debt free and not solvent. Solvency is more important.

We are talking demand for Beef and imports for 365 million people. You think free and clear hobby farms are going to impact that demand curve?


You don't understand.

Iif you owe the banks 12 million dollars and milk is below support price……..

and the bank decides not to refinance your debt still again….

you are finished.


Everything you have ever worked for is gone.

And usually you are too old to start over.


I realize this is hard for the paycheck to paycheck crowd to comprehend……

But there it is .


FWIW almost every single dairyman I knew in El Paso eventually lost their operation.

Didn't that mostly happen because their coop tried to screw over HEB and HEB was smarter than them?
KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Adriacus Peratuun said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

I doubt it. Beef producers simply sell, they know the market is fickle. You totally made that up didn't you?


As a former ' beef producer ' who sold thousands of head , can assure I always sold based on the price.

Never ' simply sell '.

That is ridiculous.

So when prices are high, you wouldnt sell,and grow your herd instead? And how long were you able to keep cows grazing when the market was up? Did you really have enough land to hold cows off from auction for a year? 2 years?

No matter what the market conditions are, most beef producers simply need to sell beef. They might sell less if the price is low, but not sell when the price is high? Nope.


My animals didn't graze….were all in corrals. And I would definitely hold and sell based on all kinds of factors including market price.

On one occasion I didn't breed my springers for an additional 8 months and sold older head. Cost me a few nickels in the short run but paid off the following year.

Plus it reduced the overall age of the herd which improved productivity.



At least in the Dairy world it is pretty sophisticated now, they have programs that monitor and spell out the schedules needed. Dairy is a more- daily commitment. But their herd management is everything.


Almost every dairy operation up here is so far in debt to the banks the owners will never get out from under their thumb

Funny. Do they want to? My Brother-in-Laws farm. It was a big Farm Family, 7 kids.

1 Brother - Animals
1 Brother - Machinary
1 Brother - Ag-Economics/Banking

I will never forget the conversations on "optimal debt". You can have too much, but you can also have too little. The farms I know, work on draws and have personal relationships with bankers.



You are not the owner if the banks can destroy you any time they wish.

Ok. Sure.

Anyone that has a mortgage is not an owner.

Do you want to talk farming as a business or hobby farming? How many "working farms" and "ranches" are owned free and clear? There is a huge difference between solvency and debt free. You can be debt free and not solvent. Solvency is more important.

We are talking demand for Beef and imports for 365 million people. You think free and clear hobby farms are going to impact that demand curve?


You don't understand.

Iif you owe the banks 12 million dollars and milk is below support price……..

and the bank decides not to refinance your debt still again….

you are finished.


Everything you have ever worked for is gone.

And usually you are too old to start over.


I realize this is hard for the paycheck to paycheck crowd to comprehend……

But there it is .


FWIW almost every single dairyman I knew in El Paso eventually lost their operation.

Didn't that mostly happen because their coop tried to screw over HEB and HEB was smarter than them?


Nope

Cows have been genetically improved to produce over 120lbs of milk per day. Nutrition and herd health has been fine tuned to produce ever increasing production per head.

Meanwhile folks don't drink as much milk as they used to.

Dairies have been a long shot attempt to making money for the last 20 years at least.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

I doubt it. Beef producers simply sell, they know the market is fickle. You totally made that up didn't you?


As a former ' beef producer ' who sold thousands of head , can assure I always sold based on the price.

Never ' simply sell '.

That is ridiculous.

So when prices are high, you wouldnt sell,and grow your herd instead? And how long were you able to keep cows grazing when the market was up? Did you really have enough land to hold cows off from auction for a year? 2 years?

No matter what the market conditions are, most beef producers simply need to sell beef. They might sell less if the price is low, but not sell when the price is high? Nope.


My animals didn't graze….were all in corrals. And I would definitely hold and sell based on all kinds of factors including market price.

On one occasion I didn't breed my springers for an additional 8 months and sold older head. Cost me a few nickels in the short run but paid off the following year.

Plus it reduced the overall age of the herd which improved productivity.



At least in the Dairy world it is pretty sophisticated now, they have programs that monitor and spell out the schedules needed. Dairy is a more- daily commitment. But their herd management is everything.


Almost every dairy operation up here is so far in debt to the banks the owners will never get out from under their thumb

Funny. Do they want to? My Brother-in-Laws farm. It was a big Farm Family, 7 kids.

1 Brother - Animals
1 Brother - Machinary
1 Brother - Ag-Economics/Banking

I will never forget the conversations on "optimal debt". You can have too much, but you can also have too little. The farms I know, work on draws and have personal relationships with bankers.



You are not the owner if the banks can destroy you any time they wish.

Ok. Sure.

Anyone that has a mortgage is not an owner.

Do you want to talk farming as a business or hobby farming? How many "working farms" and "ranches" are owned free and clear? There is a huge difference between solvency and debt free. You can be debt free and not solvent. Solvency is more important.

We are talking demand for Beef and imports for 365 million people. You think free and clear hobby farms are going to impact that demand curve?


You don't understand.

Iif you owe the banks 12 million dollars and milk is below support price……..

and the bank decides not to refinance your debt still again….

you are finished.


Everything you have ever worked for is gone.

And usually you are too old to start over.


I realize this is hard for the paycheck to paycheck crowd to comprehend……

But there it is .


FWIW almost every single dairyman I knew in El Paso eventually lost their operation.

Yeah, it is a tough situation. Some States actually dealt with it legislatively. I was there when Wisconsin did the Dairy Buy Out because of the support price. You had to make the "cut" to stay in the business or the State bought you out and you couldn't re-enter. It was stressful to see if they would make the cut.

It is not for the light of heart that is for sure. My nephew is struggling. It is tough for sure. I don't know one farmer with no debt, where farming is the primary source of revenue (my hobby farm comment). I know some that do specialty beef as side gigs...
Porteroso
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

Porteroso said:

KaiBear said:

Porteroso said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

I doubt it. Beef producers simply sell, they know the market is fickle. You totally made that up didn't you?


As a former ' beef producer ' who sold thousands of head , can assure I always sold based on the price.

Never ' simply sell '.

That is ridiculous.

So when prices are high, you wouldnt sell,and grow your herd instead? And how long were you able to keep cows grazing when the market was up? Did you really have enough land to hold cows off from auction for a year? 2 years?

No matter what the market conditions are, most beef producers simply need to sell beef. They might sell less if the price is low, but not sell when the price is high? Nope.

There is an optimal number, just like any other business. My brother in law is a dairy farmer with a small beef herd. They always keep the needed number of heifers. It is the males that either become beefers or veal.

Just like there is an optimal level of debt and investment. In lean years, you may skew a little one way or another, but if you want to stay in business you stay in a zone no matter what the prices.

What? You are missing the point. Most ranchers do not grow and cut their herds all that much just because beef is more or less expensive, but they for sure don't choose to sell the least when beef is the most expensive. Prices always fluctuate, and because they aren't idiots, they know when to cash in.

You don't give up money today when proces are high and grow your herd, expecting that prices will still be high in 1.5-2 years, when the offspring of the heifers you decided to keep can be slaughtered. You have absolutely no idea what prices will be in 2 years.

You might have a long term strategy that involves making less money today, but nobody looks at high prices and thinks "let's not sell." What whiterock said was absolutely incorrect.

That might be a rookie mistake, but not one that many would make twice.
ATL Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

Trump is basically trying to fix a problem he created and take a bow. Not surprising. That's just how he rolls.

"Sometimes it seems as if there are more solutions than problems. On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today's problems are a result of yesterday's solutions."
-Thomas Sowell

This is not hard to understand. We started importing a lot of beef. Our beef herd attritted (both numbers of cattle and numbers of producers). Now, we need to rebuild the beef herd (and, implicitly, the numbers of producers). To do that, we have to increase the price of imported beef (with tariffs). If you put the tariffs too high, the foreign supply constricts too quickly.

Or you can just open our market freely and let the Brazilians run us out of the beef business. Beef will be cheaper, at least until the process is complete. And as Brazilian and Chinese relations improve, China will have some influence of Brazilian beef export policy, to include influence over Brazilian embargo of beef in protest of future US policies. And those Brazilian beef exports to the USA will sail within striking distance of Chinese and Russian and Iranian weapons systems currently stationed in Venezuela. The more beef we import, the more have to worry about all of that stuff.

Or we could put in place policy to incentivize more domestic production of beef. We can put quotas in place, but the shortage of domestic supply will cause prices to rise. We can give subsidies to beef producers to grow herds, but that will cost money. Or we can put on a tariff. It will cause prices to rise, but it will generate modest revenues. Reasonable people can disagree on which is better. But everybody likes beef.



So now Venezuela using Russian and Iranian weapons are going to be bombing Brazilian ships with beef on them? You are weaving epic tales at this point because the business case for tariffs is floundering. Higher prices, fewer jobs, and economic volatility. Maybe the Supreme Court will save Trump from himself.

no, I'm making valid geopolitical observations.

-no country wants to be dependent on imported food supply.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported energy sources.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported on strategic products.
-no country wants to allow hostile powers to sit astride it's lines of supply for anything.

That concept undergirds the Monroe Doctrine itself = keep foreign powers away from our trade routes.

No country wants its supply of foodstuffs to have to sail within range of weapons systems of a hostile power like China. And no country will want to stand idle while a trade route free of such threats is placed under them by changes in status quo.

This is the way the world actually works. China doesn't want us out of Asia because they hate us. They want us out of Asia because our geopolitical position places the vast majority of China's trade routes are within striking range of F-18 Hornet squadrons.
You better fix your Ukraine arguments and apologize to Sam Lowry and Redbrickbear, because they've been defending Russia's actions in Ukraine on similar grounds.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

Trump is basically trying to fix a problem he created and take a bow. Not surprising. That's just how he rolls.

"Sometimes it seems as if there are more solutions than problems. On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today's problems are a result of yesterday's solutions."
-Thomas Sowell

This is not hard to understand. We started importing a lot of beef. Our beef herd attritted (both numbers of cattle and numbers of producers). Now, we need to rebuild the beef herd (and, implicitly, the numbers of producers). To do that, we have to increase the price of imported beef (with tariffs). If you put the tariffs too high, the foreign supply constricts too quickly.

Or you can just open our market freely and let the Brazilians run us out of the beef business. Beef will be cheaper, at least until the process is complete. And as Brazilian and Chinese relations improve, China will have some influence of Brazilian beef export policy, to include influence over Brazilian embargo of beef in protest of future US policies. And those Brazilian beef exports to the USA will sail within striking distance of Chinese and Russian and Iranian weapons systems currently stationed in Venezuela. The more beef we import, the more have to worry about all of that stuff.

Or we could put in place policy to incentivize more domestic production of beef. We can put quotas in place, but the shortage of domestic supply will cause prices to rise. We can give subsidies to beef producers to grow herds, but that will cost money. Or we can put on a tariff. It will cause prices to rise, but it will generate modest revenues. Reasonable people can disagree on which is better. But everybody likes beef.



So now Venezuela using Russian and Iranian weapons are going to be bombing Brazilian ships with beef on them? You are weaving epic tales at this point because the business case for tariffs is floundering. Higher prices, fewer jobs, and economic volatility. Maybe the Supreme Court will save Trump from himself.

no, I'm making valid geopolitical observations.

-no country wants to be dependent on imported food supply.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported energy sources.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported on strategic products.
-no country wants to allow hostile powers to sit astride it's lines of supply for anything.

That concept undergirds the Monroe Doctrine itself = keep foreign powers away from our trade routes.

No country wants its supply of foodstuffs to have to sail within range of weapons systems of a hostile power like China. And no country will want to stand idle while a trade route free of such threats is placed under them by changes in status quo.

This is the way the world actually works. China doesn't want us out of Asia because they hate us. They want us out of Asia because our geopolitical position places the vast majority of China's trade routes are within striking range of F-18 Hornet squadrons.
You better fix your Ukraine arguments and apologize to Sam Lowry and Redbrickbear, because they've been defending Russia's actions in Ukraine on similar grounds.


Sigh…… that situation is not analogous - Russia and Nato have equal interests in the status of Ukraine. The same cannot be said about our adversaries actions in Venezuela.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
My my my…..

KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

My my my…..



Very hard to believe with all the gloom and doom routinely reported the last 2 weeks.
Porteroso
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Someone is making money, just not the working class.
ATL Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

Trump is basically trying to fix a problem he created and take a bow. Not surprising. That's just how he rolls.

"Sometimes it seems as if there are more solutions than problems. On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today's problems are a result of yesterday's solutions."
-Thomas Sowell

This is not hard to understand. We started importing a lot of beef. Our beef herd attritted (both numbers of cattle and numbers of producers). Now, we need to rebuild the beef herd (and, implicitly, the numbers of producers). To do that, we have to increase the price of imported beef (with tariffs). If you put the tariffs too high, the foreign supply constricts too quickly.

Or you can just open our market freely and let the Brazilians run us out of the beef business. Beef will be cheaper, at least until the process is complete. And as Brazilian and Chinese relations improve, China will have some influence of Brazilian beef export policy, to include influence over Brazilian embargo of beef in protest of future US policies. And those Brazilian beef exports to the USA will sail within striking distance of Chinese and Russian and Iranian weapons systems currently stationed in Venezuela. The more beef we import, the more have to worry about all of that stuff.

Or we could put in place policy to incentivize more domestic production of beef. We can put quotas in place, but the shortage of domestic supply will cause prices to rise. We can give subsidies to beef producers to grow herds, but that will cost money. Or we can put on a tariff. It will cause prices to rise, but it will generate modest revenues. Reasonable people can disagree on which is better. But everybody likes beef.



So now Venezuela using Russian and Iranian weapons are going to be bombing Brazilian ships with beef on them? You are weaving epic tales at this point because the business case for tariffs is floundering. Higher prices, fewer jobs, and economic volatility. Maybe the Supreme Court will save Trump from himself.

no, I'm making valid geopolitical observations.

-no country wants to be dependent on imported food supply.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported energy sources.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported on strategic products.
-no country wants to allow hostile powers to sit astride it's lines of supply for anything.

That concept undergirds the Monroe Doctrine itself = keep foreign powers away from our trade routes.

No country wants its supply of foodstuffs to have to sail within range of weapons systems of a hostile power like China. And no country will want to stand idle while a trade route free of such threats is placed under them by changes in status quo.

This is the way the world actually works. China doesn't want us out of Asia because they hate us. They want us out of Asia because our geopolitical position places the vast majority of China's trade routes are within striking range of F-18 Hornet squadrons.
You better fix your Ukraine arguments and apologize to Sam Lowry and Redbrickbear, because they've been defending Russia's actions in Ukraine on similar grounds.


Sigh…… that situation is not analogous - Russia and Nato have equal interests in the status of Ukraine. The same cannot be said about our adversaries actions in Venezuela.
It is extremely similar from a unilateral action justification. Unfriendly regime and proximity of adversarial military threat. The cocaine war is a mere justification for that geopolitical objective.

Again, make up your mind.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

Trump is basically trying to fix a problem he created and take a bow. Not surprising. That's just how he rolls.

"Sometimes it seems as if there are more solutions than problems. On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today's problems are a result of yesterday's solutions."
-Thomas Sowell

This is not hard to understand. We started importing a lot of beef. Our beef herd attritted (both numbers of cattle and numbers of producers). Now, we need to rebuild the beef herd (and, implicitly, the numbers of producers). To do that, we have to increase the price of imported beef (with tariffs). If you put the tariffs too high, the foreign supply constricts too quickly.

Or you can just open our market freely and let the Brazilians run us out of the beef business. Beef will be cheaper, at least until the process is complete. And as Brazilian and Chinese relations improve, China will have some influence of Brazilian beef export policy, to include influence over Brazilian embargo of beef in protest of future US policies. And those Brazilian beef exports to the USA will sail within striking distance of Chinese and Russian and Iranian weapons systems currently stationed in Venezuela. The more beef we import, the more have to worry about all of that stuff.

Or we could put in place policy to incentivize more domestic production of beef. We can put quotas in place, but the shortage of domestic supply will cause prices to rise. We can give subsidies to beef producers to grow herds, but that will cost money. Or we can put on a tariff. It will cause prices to rise, but it will generate modest revenues. Reasonable people can disagree on which is better. But everybody likes beef.



So now Venezuela using Russian and Iranian weapons are going to be bombing Brazilian ships with beef on them? You are weaving epic tales at this point because the business case for tariffs is floundering. Higher prices, fewer jobs, and economic volatility. Maybe the Supreme Court will save Trump from himself.

no, I'm making valid geopolitical observations.

-no country wants to be dependent on imported food supply.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported energy sources.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported on strategic products.
-no country wants to allow hostile powers to sit astride it's lines of supply for anything.

That concept undergirds the Monroe Doctrine itself = keep foreign powers away from our trade routes.

No country wants its supply of foodstuffs to have to sail within range of weapons systems of a hostile power like China. And no country will want to stand idle while a trade route free of such threats is placed under them by changes in status quo.

This is the way the world actually works. China doesn't want us out of Asia because they hate us. They want us out of Asia because our geopolitical position places the vast majority of China's trade routes are within striking range of F-18 Hornet squadrons.
You better fix your Ukraine arguments and apologize to Sam Lowry and Redbrickbear, because they've been defending Russia's actions in Ukraine on similar grounds.


Sigh…… that situation is not analogous - Russia and Nato have equal interests in the status of Ukraine. The same cannot be said about our adversaries actions in Venezuela.
It is extremely similar from a unilateral action justification. Unfriendly regime and proximity of adversarial military threat. The cocaine war is a mere justification for that geopolitical objective.

Again, make up your mind.

You are even worse on foreign policy than economics.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ATL Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

Trump is basically trying to fix a problem he created and take a bow. Not surprising. That's just how he rolls.

"Sometimes it seems as if there are more solutions than problems. On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today's problems are a result of yesterday's solutions."
-Thomas Sowell

This is not hard to understand. We started importing a lot of beef. Our beef herd attritted (both numbers of cattle and numbers of producers). Now, we need to rebuild the beef herd (and, implicitly, the numbers of producers). To do that, we have to increase the price of imported beef (with tariffs). If you put the tariffs too high, the foreign supply constricts too quickly.

Or you can just open our market freely and let the Brazilians run us out of the beef business. Beef will be cheaper, at least until the process is complete. And as Brazilian and Chinese relations improve, China will have some influence of Brazilian beef export policy, to include influence over Brazilian embargo of beef in protest of future US policies. And those Brazilian beef exports to the USA will sail within striking distance of Chinese and Russian and Iranian weapons systems currently stationed in Venezuela. The more beef we import, the more have to worry about all of that stuff.

Or we could put in place policy to incentivize more domestic production of beef. We can put quotas in place, but the shortage of domestic supply will cause prices to rise. We can give subsidies to beef producers to grow herds, but that will cost money. Or we can put on a tariff. It will cause prices to rise, but it will generate modest revenues. Reasonable people can disagree on which is better. But everybody likes beef.



So now Venezuela using Russian and Iranian weapons are going to be bombing Brazilian ships with beef on them? You are weaving epic tales at this point because the business case for tariffs is floundering. Higher prices, fewer jobs, and economic volatility. Maybe the Supreme Court will save Trump from himself.

no, I'm making valid geopolitical observations.

-no country wants to be dependent on imported food supply.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported energy sources.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported on strategic products.
-no country wants to allow hostile powers to sit astride it's lines of supply for anything.

That concept undergirds the Monroe Doctrine itself = keep foreign powers away from our trade routes.

No country wants its supply of foodstuffs to have to sail within range of weapons systems of a hostile power like China. And no country will want to stand idle while a trade route free of such threats is placed under them by changes in status quo.

This is the way the world actually works. China doesn't want us out of Asia because they hate us. They want us out of Asia because our geopolitical position places the vast majority of China's trade routes are within striking range of F-18 Hornet squadrons.
You better fix your Ukraine arguments and apologize to Sam Lowry and Redbrickbear, because they've been defending Russia's actions in Ukraine on similar grounds.


Sigh…… that situation is not analogous - Russia and Nato have equal interests in the status of Ukraine. The same cannot be said about our adversaries actions in Venezuela.
It is extremely similar from a unilateral action justification. Unfriendly regime and proximity of adversarial military threat. The cocaine war is a mere justification for that geopolitical objective.

Again, make up your mind.

You are even worse on foreign policy than economics.
Keep ducking and weaving the realities of both.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Assassin
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:



One very smart cookie.
"It always seems impossible until it's done." – Nelson Mandela
ScottS
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Exclusive Sen. Bernie Moreno: Experts 'Catastrophically Wrong' on Trump's Tariffs
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:



Very cool. THAT is the stuff we need to see and the Trump Administration needs to push. THAT is progress and the best way to get his agenda forward. Well, done.


whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Very cool. THAT is the stuff we need to see and the Trump Administration needs to push. THAT is progress and the best way to get his agenda forward. Well, done.




it's going to take a little time to turn the battleship around. The old business model is dying. A new one is emerging. Not an easy or painless process. But it had to happen. The trade deficits cannot continue. We must return home a greater percentage of our supply chains. But making such changes are highly politically risky, enduring immediate pain in order to reap future prosperity, generating angst from a wide range of vested interests. That's why neither party has had the courage to do it.

As I've said many times, in many ways, Trump decided not to inch his way thru the normal process of policy changes. He used the full powers of his office to rip the bandaid off as quickly as possible. That kind of abrupt change understandably prompted alarm in many areas. but it was necessary if he was to A) avoid getting bogged down by the process, and B) have a response strong enough to salvage the mid-terms.

Bill Ackman commented on this issue at the end of the interview at link, starting at about 19:40. The BBB and the investment monies in the trade deals are going to be very powerful boosts to GDP. That activity will create a lot of construction jobs, and leave behind a significant (but smaller) number of production jobs. The build up (construction jobs) may well happen in time to lift GOP prospects in the mid-terms.

FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Very cool. THAT is the stuff we need to see and the Trump Administration needs to push. THAT is progress and the best way to get his agenda forward. Well, done.




it's going to take a little time to turn the battleship around. The old business model is dying. A new one is emerging. Not an easy or painless process. But it had to happen. The trade deficits cannot continue. We must return home a greater percentage of our supply chains. But making such changes are highly politically risky, enduring immediate pain in order to reap future prosperity, generating angst from a wide range of vested interests. That's why neither party has had the courage to do it.

As I've said many times, in many ways, Trump decided not to inch his way thru the normal process of policy changes. He used the full powers of his office to rip the bandaid off as quickly as possible. That kind of abrupt change understandably prompted alarm in many areas. but it was necessary if he was to A) avoid getting bogged down by the process, and B) have a response strong enough to salvage the mid-terms.

Bill Ackman commented on this issue at the end of the interview at link, starting at about 19:40. The BBB and the investment monies in the trade deals are going to be very powerful boosts to GDP. That activity will create a lot of construction jobs, and leave behind a significant (but smaller) number of production jobs. The build up (construction jobs) may well happen in time to lift GOP prospects in the mid-terms.



He needs to show more of this. THIS will convince people it is working and convert people. The beat the hell out of people will please his followers, but not the Independent and moderate Democrats. This type of tech manufacturing will help.

You know, optics matter.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Yes, they do, but the rising tide is going to be powerful enough that few will miss it.

KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:




FWIW with the trillions of investments coming into the US and Trump replacing the Fed Chairman early in 2026
( resulting in a substantial drop in mortgage rates )

I do expect a booming economy in 2026.

With practically zero unemployment, a significant increase in wages and the highest GDP in decades.

THEN the Trump haters will simply move the goal posts and magically begin worrying about potential inflation.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:



The tariffs restricted supply….. which in the face of continued demand caused prices to rise, which in turn incentivized US beef producers to grow their herds (by retaining stock that would otherwise go to slaughter)…which of course further restricted supply.

Trump is basically trying to fix a problem he created and take a bow. Not surprising. That's just how he rolls.

"Sometimes it seems as if there are more solutions than problems. On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today's problems are a result of yesterday's solutions."
-Thomas Sowell

This is not hard to understand. We started importing a lot of beef. Our beef herd attritted (both numbers of cattle and numbers of producers). Now, we need to rebuild the beef herd (and, implicitly, the numbers of producers). To do that, we have to increase the price of imported beef (with tariffs). If you put the tariffs too high, the foreign supply constricts too quickly.

Or you can just open our market freely and let the Brazilians run us out of the beef business. Beef will be cheaper, at least until the process is complete. And as Brazilian and Chinese relations improve, China will have some influence of Brazilian beef export policy, to include influence over Brazilian embargo of beef in protest of future US policies. And those Brazilian beef exports to the USA will sail within striking distance of Chinese and Russian and Iranian weapons systems currently stationed in Venezuela. The more beef we import, the more have to worry about all of that stuff.

Or we could put in place policy to incentivize more domestic production of beef. We can put quotas in place, but the shortage of domestic supply will cause prices to rise. We can give subsidies to beef producers to grow herds, but that will cost money. Or we can put on a tariff. It will cause prices to rise, but it will generate modest revenues. Reasonable people can disagree on which is better. But everybody likes beef.



So now Venezuela using Russian and Iranian weapons are going to be bombing Brazilian ships with beef on them? You are weaving epic tales at this point because the business case for tariffs is floundering. Higher prices, fewer jobs, and economic volatility. Maybe the Supreme Court will save Trump from himself.

no, I'm making valid geopolitical observations.

-no country wants to be dependent on imported food supply.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported energy sources.
-no country wants to be dependent on imported on strategic products.
-no country wants to allow hostile powers to sit astride it's lines of supply for anything.

That concept undergirds the Monroe Doctrine itself = keep foreign powers away from our trade routes.

No country wants its supply of foodstuffs to have to sail within range of weapons systems of a hostile power like China. And no country will want to stand idle while a trade route free of such threats is placed under them by changes in status quo.

This is the way the world actually works. China doesn't want us out of Asia because they hate us. They want us out of Asia because our geopolitical position places the vast majority of China's trade routes are within striking range of F-18 Hornet squadrons.
You better fix your Ukraine arguments and apologize to Sam Lowry and Redbrickbear, because they've been defending Russia's actions in Ukraine on similar grounds.


Sigh…… that situation is not analogous - Russia and Nato have equal interests in the status of Ukraine. The same cannot be said about our adversaries actions in Venezuela.
It is extremely similar from a unilateral action justification. Unfriendly regime and proximity of adversarial military threat. The cocaine war is a mere justification for that geopolitical objective.

Again, make up your mind.

You are even worse on foreign policy than economics.
Keep ducking and weaving the realities of both.

You certainly do.

NATO and Russia have equal proximity and equal interested in Ukraine. The same cannot be said about Venezuela. To suggest the two are remotely analogous is the classic "tell me don't understate geopolitics without saying you don't understand geopolitics" situation.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Pressure ramping up.

Assassin
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

whiterock said:




FWIW with the trillions of investments coming into the US and Trump replacing the Fed Chairman early in 2026
( resulting in a substantial drop in mortgage rates )

I do expect a booming economy in 2026.

With practically zero unemployment, a significant increase in wages and the highest GDP in decades.

THEN the Trump haters will simply move the goal posts and magically begin worrying about potential inflation.

Or back to "Trump caused climate change with his booming economy!"
"It always seems impossible until it's done." – Nelson Mandela
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

whiterock said:




FWIW with the trillions of investments coming into the US and Trump replacing the Fed Chairman early in 2026
( resulting in a substantial drop in mortgage rates )

I do expect a booming economy in 2026.

With practically zero unemployment, a significant increase in wages and the highest GDP in decades.

THEN the Trump haters will simply move the goal posts and magically begin worrying about potential inflation.

Unfortunately, they won't have to. He will do all the work himself...



Trump says 'seditious' Democrats urging US troops to refuse illegal orders should face death | Reuters
KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Pressure ramping up.




Love it.

Clearly pressure on Putin to finally end the war in Ukraine.

Faults and all….and he has huge ones……Trump understands the use of power.
Assassin
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

whiterock said:




FWIW with the trillions of investments coming into the US and Trump replacing the Fed Chairman early in 2026
( resulting in a substantial drop in mortgage rates )

I do expect a booming economy in 2026.

With practically zero unemployment, a significant increase in wages and the highest GDP in decades.

THEN the Trump haters will simply move the goal posts and magically begin worrying about potential inflation.

Unfortunately, they won't have to. He will do all the work himself...



Trump says 'seditious' Democrats urging US troops to refuse illegal orders should face death | Reuters

Not at all what he said, though, was it
"It always seems impossible until it's done." – Nelson Mandela
Porteroso
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Assassin said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

whiterock said:




FWIW with the trillions of investments coming into the US and Trump replacing the Fed Chairman early in 2026
( resulting in a substantial drop in mortgage rates )

I do expect a booming economy in 2026.

With practically zero unemployment, a significant increase in wages and the highest GDP in decades.

THEN the Trump haters will simply move the goal posts and magically begin worrying about potential inflation.

Unfortunately, they won't have to. He will do all the work himself...



Trump says 'seditious' Democrats urging US troops to refuse illegal orders should face death | Reuters

Not at all what he said, though, was it

A disgusting headline. Normally you are the one posting them.
Assassin
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

whiterock said:




FWIW with the trillions of investments coming into the US and Trump replacing the Fed Chairman early in 2026
( resulting in a substantial drop in mortgage rates )

I do expect a booming economy in 2026.

With practically zero unemployment, a significant increase in wages and the highest GDP in decades.

THEN the Trump haters will simply move the goal posts and magically begin worrying about potential inflation.

Unfortunately, they won't have to. He will do all the work himself...



Trump says 'seditious' Democrats urging US troops to refuse illegal orders should face death | Reuters

Not at all what he said, though, was it

A disgusting headline. Normally you are the one posting them.

Actually, if you truly loved the USA, this is the disgusting headline

"It always seems impossible until it's done." – Nelson Mandela
First Page Last Page
Page 106 of 111
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.